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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Generalized Augmented-State Covariance Analysis for Spaceflight

The use of linear covariance analysis techniques, also known as LinCov, has been used extensively for more than a half century for spaceflight applications. Originally, its primary purpose was to facilitate navigation analysis. For many past and current applications, the specific implementations only support navigation studies still. When the concept of an augmented-state linear covariance analysis approach was initially introduced that allowed for both navigation and trajectory dispersion analysis, the enhancement was motivated and primarily utilized to support navigation filter tuning and error budget analysis. Relatively few utilize this alternate augmented-state formulation of LinCov due to its additional complexity. The untapped potential of the augmented-state linear covariance analysis technique slowly unfolded in the past two-decades as its capability to rapidly and reliably capture the integrated closed-loop guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system performance became more apparent. Even with this dual purpose of generating insights to both navigation errors along with trajectory and delta-v dispersions, the core theoretical development had a heavy emphasis on the impacts of the navigation system and largely neglected the details of the actual guidance, targeting, and control systems. This paper extends the navigation-centric theoretical development by formulating a generalized augmented-state covariance analysis (GAUSCOV) technique that allows for the intricacies of a variety of targeting and control strategies along with ground planning and mission operations to be more formally included in assessing the impacts to spaceflight GN&C system performance.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hilbert series for covariants and their applications to minimal flavor violation

We elaborate how to apply the Hilbert series method to enumerating group covariants, which transform under any given representation, including but going beyond group invariants. Mathematically, group covariants form a module over the ring of the invariants. The number of independent covariants is given by the rank of the module, which can be computed by taking a ratio of two Hilbert series. In many cases, the rank equals the dimension of the group covariant representation. When this happens, we say that there is a rank saturation. We apply this technology to revisit the hypothesis of Minimal Flavor Violation in constructing Effective Field Theories beyond the Standard Model. We find that rank saturation is guaranteed in this case, leading to the important consequence that the MFV symmetry principle does not impose any restriction on the EFT, i.e. MFV SMEFT = SMEFT, in the absence of additional assumptions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electron–Ion Covariance Reveals Geometry-Resolved Inner-Shell Spectra in CS 2 Photodissociation

The chemical shifts of inner-shell atomic orbitals are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and molecular structure. In evolving systems, however, the spectra of distinct molecular species and geometries overlap, obscuring the underlying chemical dynamics. Here we demonstrate the use of electron–ion covariance analysis to combine the structural sensitivity of Coulomb explosion imaging with inner-shell spectroscopy, yielding geometry-specific spectra of transient and product species. We apply this approach to the excited state dynamics of CS 2 probed by ionization above the S 2p edge. Electron–ion covariance with time- and momentum-selected S + and S 2+ ions isolates distinct S 2p photoelectron spectra for ground-state CS 2 , bent photoexcited CS 2 , the CS photoproduct, and bare atomic sulfur ─ species whose spectra overlap strongly in the channel-averaged measurement. Clear chemical shifts are observed in the covariance photoelectron spectrum for each of these species, all of which are consistent with high-level calculations. Here, by extracting the atomic S contribution to the photoelectron spectrum in a finely time-resolved manner we can disentangle this contribution to the overall time-resolved photoelectron spectrum as the photodissociation proceeds. These results demonstrate the promise of electron–ion covariance as a general approach to geometry-resolved inner-shell spectroscopy, opening a route to tracking structural evolution through chemical shifts in complex photoexcited molecules.

Ionization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analytical and EZmock covariance validation for the DESI 2024 results

The estimation of uncertainties in cosmological parameters is an important challenge in Large-Scale-Structure (LSS) analyses. For standard analyses such as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Full-Shape two approaches are usually considered. First: analytical estimates of the covariance matrix use Gaussian approximations and (nonlinear) clustering measurements to estimate the matrix, which allows a relatively fast and computationally cheap way to generate matrices that adapt to an arbitrary clustering measurement. On the other hand, sample covariances are an empirical estimate of the matrix based on an ensemble of clustering measurements from fast and approximate simulations. While more computationally expensive due to the large amount of simulations and volume required, these allow us to take into account systematics that are impossible to model analytically. In this work we compare these two approaches in order to enable DESI's key analyses. We find that the configuration space analytical estimate performs satisfactorily in BAO analyses and its flexibility in terms of input clustering makes it the fiducial choice for DESI's 2024 BAO analysis. On the contrary, the analytical computation of the covariance matrix in Fourier space does not reproduce the expected measurements in terms of Full-Shape analyses, which motivates the use of a corrected mock covariance for DESI's 2024 Full Shape analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating quenching in cosmological simulations of galaxy formation with spectral covariance in the optical window

ABSTRACT Cosmological hydrodynamical simulations provide valuable insights on galaxy evolution when coupled with observational data. Comparisons with real galaxies are typically performed via scaling relations of the observables. Here, we follow an alternative approach based on the spectral covariance in a model-independent way. We build upon previous work by Sharbaf et al. that studied the covariance of high-quality SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) continuum-subtracted spectra in a relatively narrow range of velocity dispersion ($\sigma \in [100,150]$ km s$^{-1}$). Here, the same analysis is applied to synthetic data from the eagle and IllustrisTNG100 simulations, to assess the ability of these runs to mimic real galaxies. The real and simulated spectra are consistent regarding spectral covariance, although with subtle differences that can inform the implementation of subgrid physics. Spectral fitting done a posteriori on stacks segregated with respect to latent space reveals that the first principal component (PC1) is predominantly influenced by the stellar age distribution, with an underlying age–metallicity degeneracy. Good agreement is found regarding star formation prescriptions but there is disagreement with active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback, that also affects the subset of quiescent galaxies. We show a substantial difference in the implementation of the AGN subgrid prescriptions, regarding central black hole seeding, that could lead to the mismatch. Differences are manifest between these two simulations in the star formation histories stacked with respect to latent space. We emphasize that this methodology only relies on the spectral covariance to assess whether simulations provide a true representation of galaxy formation.

Sharbaf, Z. (ORCID:0009000450545946)↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Quantum Time to Manifestly Covariant QFT: On the Need for a Quantum-Action-Based Quantization

In quantum time (QT) schemes, time is promoted to a degree of freedom, allowing Lorentz covariance to be made explicit for single particles. We ask whether this can be lifted to QFT so that Lorentz covariance becomes manifest at the Hilbert-space level, rather than being hidden as in the standard canonical formulation. We address this question by proposing a second-quantized approach in which the elementary particle is the QT particle itself, leading naturally to the notion of spacetime field algebras and of quantum action. We show, however, that a naive many-body construction runs into inconsistencies. To pinpoint their origin we introduce a classical counterpart of the second-quantized formalism, spacetime classical mechanics (SCM), and prove a no-go theorem: Dirac quantization of SCM collapses back to standard QFT and therefore hides covariance. We circumvent this problem by presenting a quantum-action-based quantization that yields a spacetime version of quantum mechanics (SQM), making covariance manifest for (interacting) QFTs. Finally, we show that this resolution is tied to a genuine spacetime generalization of the notion of a quantum state, required by causality and closely connected to recent “states over time” proposals and, in dS/CFT–motivated settings, to microscopic notions of timelike entanglement and emergent time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wake-Resolving Acoustic Tomography: Advances through Numerical Covariance Methods

Acoustic tomography offers path-integrated measurements of atmospheric velocity and temperature fluctuations with high spatial resolution. Classical implementations of time-dependent stochastic inversion rely on homogeneous, isotropic covariance models that are poorly suited to the anisotropic structure of wind turbine wakes. By directly estimating heterogeneous covariances from large-eddy simulations (LESs) into the time-dependent stochastic inversion operator, we relax implicit assumptions in the analytical models used historically. Retrievals using these LES-informed models improve agreement with true fields in variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and spectral content compared to analytical and precursor-based covariance models. The results indicate that LES-informed covariance models can enhance the accuracy of acoustic tomography retrievals in complex, anisotropic flows such as wind turbine wakes in some cases and highlight instances where analytical models still offer competitive performance, despite their simplifying assumptions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1976

Triangular covariance factorizations for

An improved computational form of the discrete Kalman filter is derived using an upper triangular factorization of the error covariance matrix. The covariance P is factored such that P = UDUT where U is unit upper triangular and D is diagonal. Recursions are developed for propagating the U-D covariance factors together with the corresponding state estimate. The resulting algorithm, referred to as the U-D filter, combines the superior numerical precision of square root filtering techniques with an efficiency comparable to that of Kalman's original formula. Moreover, this method is easily implemented and involves no more computer storage than the Kalman algorithm. These characteristics make the U-D method an attractive realtime filtering technique. A new covariance error analysis technique is obtained from an extension of the U-D filter equations. This evaluation method is flexible and efficient and may provide significantly improved numerical results. Cost comparisons show that for a large class of problems the U-D evaluation algorithm is noticeably less expensive than conventional error analysis methods.

Thornton, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Filtering and error analysis via the UDU super T covariance factorization

Kalman filter algorithms based on the UDU super T covariance factorization are discussed, with special attention given to algorithm implementation efficiency. A U-D-factored covariance error-analysis algorithm is formulated, and its efficiency and numerical stability are demonstrated in a representative orbit determination problem. The numerical results are compared with those obtained using covariance error-analysis formulas, and the comparison highlights the numerical superiority of the present algorithm. A byproduct of the U-D analysis is a highly efficient algorithm mechanization of the arbitrary gain covariance update formula.

Thornton, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Systematic estimation of forecast and observation error covariances in four-dimensional data assimilation

A two-part algorithm is presented for reliably computing weather forecast model and observational error covariances during data assimilation. Data errors arise from instrumental inaccuracies and sub-grid scale variability, whereas forecast errors occur because of modeling errors and the propagation of previous analysis errors. A Kalman filter is defined as the primary algorithm for estimating the forecast and analysis error convariance matrices. A second algorithm is described for quantifying the noise covariance matrices of any degree to obtain accurate values for the observational error covariances. Numerical results are provided from a linearized one-dimensional shallow-water model. The results cover observational noise covariances, initial instrumental errors and erroneous model values.

Dee, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

True covariance simulation of the EUVE update filter

A covariance analysis of the performance and sensitivity of the attitude determination Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) used by the On Board Computer (OBC) of the Extreme Ultra Violet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft is presented. The linearized dynamics and measurement equations of the error states are derived which constitute the truth model describing the real behavior of the systems involved. The design model used by the OBC EKF is then obtained by reducing the order of the truth model. The covariance matrix of the EKF which uses the reduced order model is not the correct covariance of the EKF estimation error. A true covariance analysis has to be carried out in order to evaluate the correct accuracy of the OBC generated estimates. The results of such analysis are presented which indicate both the performance and the sensitivity of the OBC EKF.

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

All covariance controllers for linear discrete-time systems

The set of covariances that a linear discrete-time plant with a specified-order controller can have is characterized. The controllers that assign such covariances to any linear discrete-time system are given explicitly in closed form. The freedom in these covariance controllers is explicit and is parameterized by two orthogonal matrices. By appropriately choosing these free parameters, additional system objectives can be achieved without altering the state covariance, and the stability of the closed-loop system is guaranteed.

Hsieh, Chen↗

NASA NTRS1990

Upper and lower covariance bounds for perturbed linear systems

Both upper and lower bounds are established for state covariance matrices under parameter perturbations of the plant. The motivation for this study lies in the fact that many robustness properties of linear systems are given explicitly in terms of the state covariance matrix. Moreover, there exists a theory for control by covariance assignment. The results provide robustness properties of these covariance controllers.

Xu, J.-H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Computation of the factorized error covariance of the difference between correlated estimators

A state estimation problem where some of the measurements may be common to two or more data sets is considered. Two approaches for computing the error covariance of the difference between filtered estimates (for each data set) are discussed. The first algorithm is based on postprocessing of the Kalman gain profiles of two correlated estimators. It uses UD factors of the covariance of the relative error. The second algorithm uses a square root information filter applied to relative error analysis. In the absence of process noise, the square root information filter is computationally more efficient and more flexible than the Kalman gain (covariance update) method. Both the algorithms (covariance and information matrix based) are applied to a Venus orbiter simulation, and their performances are compared.

Wolff, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

True covariance simulation of the EUVE update filter

This paper presents a covariance analysis of the performance and sensitivity of the attitude determination Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) used by the On Board Computer (OBC) of the Extreme Ultra Violet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft. The linearized dynamics and measurement equations of the error states are used in formulating the 'truth model' describing the real behavior of the systems involved. The 'design model' used by the OBC EKF is then obtained by reducing the order of the truth model. The covariance matrix of the EKF which uses the reduced order model is not the correct covariance of the EKF estimation error. A 'true covariance analysis' has to be carried out in order to evaluate the correct accuracy of the OBC generated estimates. The results of such analysis are presented which indicate both the performance and the sensitivity of the OBC EKF.

Bar-Itzhack, I. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1990

True covariance simulation of the EUVE (extreme ultra violet explorer) update filter

This paper presents a covariance analysis of the performance and sensitivity of the attitude determination Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) used by the onboard computer (OBC) of the Extreme Ultra Violet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft. The linearized dynamics and measurement equations of the error states are used in formulating the 'truth model' describing the order of the systems involved. The 'design model' used by the OBC EKF is then obtained by reducing the order of the truth model. The covariance matrix of the EKF which uses the reduced order model is not the correct covariance of the EKF estimation error. A 'true covariance analysis' has to be carried out in order to evaluate the correct accuracy of the OBC generated estimates. The results of such analysis are presented which indicate both the performance and the sensitivity of the OBC EKF.

Bar-Itzhack, I. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Q-Markov covariance equivalent realization and its application to flexible structure identification

The Q-Markov covariance equivalent realization algorithm is applied to NASA's Minimast structure to identify state-space models for the purpose of designing closed-loop controllers, and laboratory test results are shown for the identification and for the closed-loop performance. The paper also presents for the first time a deterministic formulation of covariance parameters from a pulse response, a stochastic formulation of Markov parameters from a white-noise response, and a simple Q-Markov covariance equivalent realization formulation. This requires only pulse laboratory tests or only white-noise laboratory tests to generate Q-Markov covariance equivalent realizations.

Liu, Ketao↗