Naval Force Health Protection Program Review 2020 Abstract and Quad Chart.
Abstract not provided.
Hovey, Chad Brian↗
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Naval Force Health Protection Program Review 2020 Abstract and Quad Chart C2B2.
Abstract not provided.
Hovey, Chad Brian↗
Naval Force Health Protection Program Review 2020 Abstract and Quad Chart SS.
Abstract not provided.
Hovey, Chad Brian↗
Charting Hydropower's Role in the Next-Generation Grid
To build a 100% clean energy power sector, the United States is adding more energy storage and variable renewable energy sources, like solar power and wind energy, to the grid. Hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) can help with both. These technologies already play a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. power grid, and this role will become even more valuable as that grid evolves. That's why researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are analyzing how the U.S. electricity sector could invest in hydropower and PSH using new data and modeling capabilities.
HYDRO ENERGY↗
Exploring Dynamic P-Q Capability and Abnormal Operations of Inverter-Based Resources
Nowadays, inverter-based resources are rapidly growing in electric power systems. On the other side, abnormal inverter operations are also occurring more often. Traditionally, inverter PQ capability charts are employed by electric utility companies to ensure safe and reliable operations of inverter-based resources. However, it is found in this paper that existing inverter PQ capability charts do not address the operating characteristics of an inverter correctly, which can result in irregular and unstable inverter operations. Here in this paper, a novel study is conducted to investigate inverter PQ capability charts, where constraints that are specific to an inverter are considered. It is found in this paper that the inverter PQ capability charts exhibit a unique dynamic nature under uncertain grid conditions. This dynamic nature has not been considered by the industry in managing, designing, and controlling an inverter as well as in developing international standards for inverter-based resources. Via both electromagnetic transient simulation and hardware experimental investigations, it is found that the dynamic PQ capability nature, together with the limitations of the existing control methods, are the underlying causes of many unusual inverter operations that have been reported in the literature.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Fox Trails
1. This software utilizes python pandas to pull data from P6 databases or XER files. The software transforms the datasets into multiple main tables by joining, filtering, iteratively flattening hierarchical structured data, and pivoting datasets to give simple flat output tables. The activity table includes all of the information related to an activity including activity codes, global, EPS, and project codes, UDFs, and WBS information as separate columns. This includes the code id, code value and sequence number for all levels in hierarchical codes. The resource table is similar to the activity table and includes all of the information related to resources on activities including UPFs and resource codes. The resource time phased table takes the resource information and time phases it for the budget, forecast, late, and actual dates/units/costs that closely matches P6's user interface's values as it implements the resource curve and calendars. The wbs table contains the WBS structure broken out by levels and includes UDFs, codes, and notebook topics. The final P6 data table is the relationships table which simply contains the relationships. 2. When a user updates the tool with data (via giving it P6 project names with database username/password information or XER files) the system creates the data in #1, then creates a networkx graph with the activity data imbedded in the node data and the relationships added as edges. Each edge also has it's float calculated (working time distance between the predecessor and successor) and attached to the edge. Activities are also tagged as a potential start of a path based on their constraints, constraint dates, remaining start date, and activity status. When a user enters an activity ID into the UI, it runs a shortest path calculation on the network graph between each node tagged as potential start to the entered activity id based on the float tagged on the edge. Each path returned by the algorithm contains all of the nodes on the path in order, as well as the total float of the edges that make the path. This data is then collected and returned to the user in the form of a gantt chart with groupings for each path that includes the total float for each group. 3. Similar to 2, if the user passes through a reference dataset each activity set in the path is checked to see if it had a path in the reference dataset, if that path was the primary path between the start and end activities, and what has changed regarding logic and durations. These changes are color coded and summarized before sent to the user to be displayed by the UI for simple discovery. 4. Utilizing the data from #1, the user can submit desired grouping code(s) and filters to the system. The system will then pull the activities, resources, and relationships and create a gantt chart based on the groupings sent and filtered based on the filters sent. 5. The system will produce a gantt chart in a similar method to #4, but allows interactivity with the data. As the user interacts with the gantt chart, the software captures the changes and stores it with the user making the change so that project controls and implement those changes in P6.
Fox, Ben↗
Preliminary description of a new creep-fatigue design method that reduces over conservatism and simplifies the high temperature design process
The report provides the initial description of a new creep-fatigue design method for structural components in high temperature nuclear service. The new method is based on an integrated elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis and Simplified Model Test (SMT) approach that reduces over conservatism, improves the treatment of elastic follow up, and simplifies the design procedure, when compared with the current creep-fatigue design methods in ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. Developing the design charts for the EPP-SMT design method requires extrapolating SMT test data as a function of hold time and follow up factor. The report develops the preliminary design charts for Alloy 617 at temperatures between 800°C and 950°C by combining two extrapolation approaches developed in a previous work. The report also presents a comparative analysis between the EPP-SMT design method and the current ASME creep-fatigue design methods by evaluating design life of two sample geometries under different loading conditions. Results from the comparative analysis verify the EPP-SMT design charts but suggest the requirement of additional test data in the low strain range regime for improving the extrapolation procedure that will further reduce the over conservatism in the creep-fatigue damage evaluation. The report also concludes that the EPP-SMT design procedure can account for effect of primary load on creep-fatigue life by using a fixed, bounding value of follow up in constructing the design charts. The conclusions to this report describe the future work required to complete this new design method so it can be codified through a nuclear Code Case.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Analysis of Long-Term Quality Control Data for a 137 Cs Dosimetry Calibration Source
Strict quality assurance programs are required for many radiological applications, but these seldom exist for verifying dosimetry calibration sources. After initial characterization of a dosimetry calibration facility, quality control procedures are recommended to ensure the early detection of any changes or malfunctions. These also result in refined knowledge about average dose rate and experimental variations in dose delivery. This paper describes the implementation of a phase I quality control protocol for a 137 Cs dosimetry calibration source and includes an analysis of the resulting data collected over a 24-mo period. During this time, substantial data was collected to establish trial control limits. Air kerma rate measurements were obtained using an ion chamber and were adjusted for decay, corrected for ambient temperature, pressure and humidity, and then analyzed using quality control charts. Three variations of rational subgrouping methods were used in order to find assignable causes of error, and Nelson's Rules were followed to detect any non-random statistical variations. Measurements were subgrouped according to same-day measurements in order to detect positional errors as well as atmospheric correction errors. Additionally, measurements were subgrouped according to analogous experimental setups in order to detect failure in equipment or incorrect settings. Both were analyzed using the X-bar and R chart method. Similarly, individuals and moving ranges charts were used to carefully examine each position in order to observe any situational errors that may occur which include timing, positional, or interference errors. Each method was successful in identifying unique out-of-control data points that occurred during the phase I application of forming control limits. Furthermore, over the 24-mo period, enough data points were deemed in-control to establish reliable trial limits. Future experiments will include the phase II application of gaining more reliable measurements in order to fine-tune the limits, as well as performing a designed experiment, where variables are purposefully changed in order to test the variation of the data.
61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints
Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Statistical Framework for Planning a Shelf Life Program with Binary Performance Data
This document outlines a statistical framework for establishing a shelf-life program for components whose performance is measured by a binary response, usually ‘pass’ or ‘fail.’ The approach applies to both single measurement devices and repeated measurement devices. The high-level objective of these plans is to quickly detect any sizeable increase in fraction defective as the product ages. The statistical approach is to choose a sample size and monitoring technique that alarms when the fraction defective increases to an unacceptably high level, but does not alarm when the process is at nominal. The nominal (acceptable) fraction defective is used, and an increased fraction defective (unacceptable) is assumed as part of the control chart design. The control chart recommended for this problem is the Bernoulli Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control chart.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Utah FORGE: Well 16A(78)-32 Stimulation Tracer Test Results
This archive contains data from the tracer test performed during the Utah FORGE well 16A(78)-32 stimulation. This includes: 1. the raw data file from Pason in the csv format; 2. a one-page Word document from Pason that explains the headers and units used in their data file; 3. an Excel spreadsheet with concentration data and relevant Pason flow data; 4. a Word document with jpg versions of concentration charts (Figs. 1-3) and a tracer mass recovery chart (Fig. 4).
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Solar cell efficiency tables (version 57)
Abstract Consolidated tables showing an extensive listing of the highest independently confirmed efficiencies for solar cells and modules are presented. Guidelines for inclusion of results into these tables are outlined, and new entries since June 2020 are reviewed. In this issue, charts showing efficiency improvements since 1993 are included as well as cell and module area definitions and an updated list of recognized test centres.
Green, Martin↗
Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches
Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.
Weix, Derek↗
Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands
The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.
India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗
Experimental studies of the two-step scheme with an intense radioactive 132 Sn beam for next-generation production of very neutron-rich nuclei
The study of nuclei in the yet-unexplored, very neutron-rich, mid- to heavy-mass region of the nuclear chart, comprising perhaps half of all nuclei predicted to exist, is leading to new and/or upgraded facilities, as well as to research into the underlying production processes. In the present study, the usefulness of the two-step scheme, an alternate method to produce very neutron-rich nuclei, by a combination of an isotope-separation online (ISOL) system as a first step, and in-beam fragmentation of re-accelerated radioactive isotopes (RIs) as a second step, was investigated with a 132 Sn beam. In this work, very neutron-rich RIs around the neutron-rich neutron number N = 82 region were produced from the 278-MeV/nucleon 132 Sn beam impinging on a 5.97-mm Be target, and their production cross sections were measured. Yields were then estimated for the two-step scheme with the 132 Sn beam relative to the ones by a one-step scheme, in-flight fission of a 238 U beam, for 1-MW proton and 238 U beams at respective RI-beam facilities. This comparison suggests that the two-step scheme with the 132 Sn beam provides yields >40-times higher than those with the one-step scheme for the very neutron-rich N = 82 region. Moreover, by using various RI beams over the nuclear chart from ISOL, certain kinds of very neutron-rich RIs around the supernova r-process path can be produced with greater yields than by the one-step approach.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Hyperheavy spherical and toroidal nuclei: The role of shell structure
The properties of toroidal hyperheavy even-even nuclei and the role of toroidal shell structure are extensively studied within covariant density functional theory. The general trends in the evolution of toroidal shapes in the Z ≈ 130–180 region of the nuclear chart are established for the first time. These nuclei are stable with respect to breathing deformations. The most compact fat toroidal nuclei are located in the Z ≈ 136, N ≈ 206 region of the nuclear chart, but thin toroidal nuclei become dominant with increasing proton number and toward proton and neutron drip lines. The roles of toroidal shell structure, its regularity, supershell structure, and shell gaps as well as the role of different groups of the pairs of the orbitals in its formation are investigated in detail. The lowest in energy solutions at axial symmetry are characterized either by large shell gaps or low density of the single-particle states in the vicinity of the Fermi level in at least one of the subsystems (proton or neutron). Related quantum shell effects are expected to act against the instabilities in breathing and sausage deformations for these subsystems. The investigation with a large set of covariant energy density functionals reveals that substantial proton Z = 154 and 186 and neutron N = 228, 308, and 406 spherical shell gaps exist in all functionals. The nuclei in the vicinity of the combination of these particle numbers form the islands of stability of spherical hyperheavy nuclei. Furthermore, the study suggests that the N = 210 toroidal shell gap plays a substantial role in the stabilization of fat toroidal nuclei.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Charge radii in covariant density functional theory: A global view
A systematic global investigation of differential charge radii has been performed within the CDFT framework for the first time. Theoretical results obtained with conventional covariant energy density functionals and the separable pairing interaction of Tian et al. [Phys. Lett. B 676, 44 (2009)] are compared with experimental differential charge radii in the regions of the nuclear chart in which available experimental data crosses the neutron shell closures at N=28,50,82, and 126. The analysis of absolute differential radii of different isotopic chains and their relative properties indicate clearly that such properties are reasonably well described in model calculations in the cases when the mean-field approximation is justified. However, while the observed clusterization of differential charge radii of different isotopic chains is well described above the N=50 and N=126 shell closures, it is more difficult to reproduce it above the N=28 and N=82 shell closures because of possible deficiencies in the underlying single-particle structure. The impact of the latter has been evaluated for spherical shapes and it was shown that the relative energies of the single-particle states and the patterns of their occupation with increasing neutron number have an appreciable impact on the evolution of the δ$\langle$r2$\rangle$N,N' values. These factors also limit the predictive power of model calculations in the regions of high densities of the single-particle states of different origin. It is shown that the kinks in the charge radii at neutron shell closures are due to the underlying single-particle structure and due to weakening or collapse of pairing at these closures. The regions of the nuclear chart in which the correlations beyond mean field are expected to have an impact on charge radii are indicated; the analysis shows that the assignment of a calculated excited prolate minimum to the experimental ground state allows us to understand the trends of the evolution of differential charge radii with neutron number in many cases of shape coexistence even at the mean-field level. It is usually assumed that pairing is a dominant contributor to odd-even staggering (OES) in charge radii. Our analysis paints a more complicated picture. It suggests a new mechanism in which the fragmentation of the single-particle content of the ground state in odd-mass nuclei due to particle-vibration coupling provides a significant contribution to OES in charge radii.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Neural network emulation of spontaneous fission
Large-scale computations of fission properties are an important ingredient for nuclear reaction network calculations simulating rapid neutron-capture process (the 𝑟 process) nucleosynthesis. Due to the large number of fissioning nuclei potentially contributing to the 𝑟 process, a microscopic description of fission based on nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is computationally challenging. Here, we explore the use of neural networks (NNs) to construct DFT emulators capable of predicting potential energy surfaces and collective inertia tensors across the whole nuclear chart, starting from a minimal set of DFT calculations. We use constrained Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) calculations to predict the potential energy and collective inertia tensor in the axial quadrupole and octupole collective coordinates, for a set of nuclei in the 𝑟-process region. We then employ NNs to emulate the HFB energy and collective inertia tensor across the considered region of the nuclear chart. Least-action pathways characterizing spontaneous fission half-lives and fragment yields are then obtained by means of the nudged elastic band method. The potential energy predicted by NNs agrees with the DFT value to within a root-mean-square error of 500 keV, and the collective inertia components agree to within an order of magnitude. These results are largely independent of the NN architecture. The exit points on the outer turning line are found to be well emulated. For the spontaneous fission half-lives the NN emulation provides values that are found to agree with the DFT predictions within a factor of 10 3 across more than 70 orders of magnitude. Neural networks are able to emulate the potential energy and collective inertia well enough to reasonably predict physical observables. Future directions of study, such as the inclusion of additional collective degrees of freedom and active learning, will improve the predictive power of microscopic theory and further enable large-scale fission studies.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗