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Communicating Risk to Program Managers

Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).

Shivers, C. Herbert↗

MAPGEN Planner: Mixed-Initiative Activity Planning for the Mars Exploration Rover Mission

This document describes the Mixed-initiative Activity Plan Generation system MAPGEN. The system is be- ing developed as one of the tools to be used during surface operations of NASA's Mars Exploration Rover mission (MER). However, the core technology is general and can be adapted to different missions and applications. The motivation for the system is to better support users that need to rapidly build activity plans that have to satisfy complex rules and fit within resource limits. The system therefore combines an existing tool for activity plan editing and resource modeling, with an advanced constraint-based reasoning and planning framework. The demonstration will show the key capabilities of the automated reasoning and planning component of the system, with emphasis on how these capabilities will be used during surface operations of the MER mission.

Ai-Chang, Mitch↗

Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) New Observing Strategies (NOS) and NOS-Testbed (NOS-T)

With the advancement of space hardware technologies such as smaller spacecraft, component and instrument miniaturization and high performance space processors, and with the advancement of software technologies in artificial intelligence, big data analysis and autonomous decision making, Earth Science is looking at novel ways to observe phenomena that previously could not have been studied or would have been too expensive to study with traditional missions. In particular, the New Observing Strategies (NOS) component of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program aims at leveraging these novel technologies as well as low cost and easy access to space to acquire multi-temporal or simultaneous multi-angular, multi-locations, multi-resolution and multi-spectral observations that will provide better multi-source measurements and will build a more dynamic and comprehensive picture of Earth Science phenomena that need to be studied and analyzed. For applications such as water resources management, air quality monitoring, biodiversity studies or disaster management, NOS will integrate the use of small instruments, small spacecraft, constellations of spacecraft and networks of sensors to design new missions that will provide the necessary measurements to improve future forecast and science modeling systems.Measurement acquisition will therefore be approached as a system of systems rather than on a mission basis, and a system of this complexity should not be expected to work without full integration and experimental characterization. Although most of the individual technologies enabling to link and coordinate multi-source observations are more or less mature, a few technologies need to be developed and all of them need to be integrated and tested as a system. In order for this validation to occur, the AIST Program is developing the NOS Testbed that includes 3 main goals:1.Validate novel NOS technologies, independently and as a system2.Demonstrate novel distributed operations concepts3.Socialize new Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) and SensorWeb (SW) technologies and concepts to the science community by significantly retiring the risk of integrating these new technologies.The NOS Testbed will consist of multiple sensing nodes, simulated or actual, representing space, air and/or ground measurements, that are interconnected by a communications fabric (infrastructure that permits nodes to transmit and receive data between one another and interact with each other). Each node will be supported by hardware capabilities required to perform nodes monitoring and command & control, as well as intelligent "onboard" computing. The nodes will work together in a collaborative manner to demonstrate optimal science capabilities. The testbed will enable to validate technologies such as inter-node communication models, techniques and protocols; inter-node coordination; real-time data fusion and understanding; planning; sensor re-targeting; etc. Additionally, the testbed will have the capability to interact with various mission design tools, OSSEs and one or several forecast models. More details about the NOS Testbed will be presented at the confererence.

Earth Science missions; Advanced information Syste↗

Risk analysis simulation of rover operations for Mars surface exploration

Risk management advocates have long sought to directly influence the early stages of the systems engineering process through a more effective role in system design trade studies. The principal obstacle to this has been the lack of credible ways to represent and quantify mission risk—that is, a combination of the probability of mission success (“system safety”) and science value—for the project manager and the rest of the design team. If it were possible to quantify mission risk, then the effects of proposed mission and system design changes could be calculated, and along with life-cycle costs, could be used to explore the design space more extensively and select better designs. JPL has been working to build the capability to quantify the probability of mission success using a federation of diverse simulations and models, each of which contributes some vital piece of the puzzle. The initial institutional focus has been on Mars surface operations. This ensemble computing framework enables the diverse models and simulations to work together seamlessly. Recent work at JPL has demonstrated the capability to exercise this ensemble from end-to-end using an Oracle-based database to automatically move results from one model/simulation to the next stage in the analysis.

Shishko, Robert↗

An EPIC Tale of the Quiescent Particle Background

Extended Source Analysis Software Use Based Empirical Investigation: (1) Builds quiescent particle background (QPB) spectra and images for observations of extended sources that fill (or mostly fill) the FOV i.e., annular background subtraction won't work. (2) Uses a combination of Filter Wheel Closed (FWC) and corner data to capture the spectral, spatial, and temporal variation of the quiescent particle background. New Work: (1) Improved understanding of the QPB (aided by adding a whole lot of data since 2008). (2) Significantly improved statistics (did I mention a LOT more data?). (3) Better characterization and identification of anomalous states. (4) Builds backgrounds for some anomalous state. (5) New efficient method for non-anomalous states.

Snowden, S.L.↗

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the PI, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As Federal, State, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Monitoring↗

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the Principal Investigator, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As federal, state, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Molly E Brown↗

Automating the design process - Progress, problems, prospects, potential.

The design process for large aerospace vehicles is discussed, with particular emphasis on structural design. Problems with current procedures are identified. Then, the contributions possible from automating the design process (defined as the best combination of men and computers) are considered. Progress toward automated design in the aerospace and other communities is reviewed, including NASA studies of the potential development of Integrated Programs for Aerospace-Vehicle Design (IPAD). The need for and suggested directions of future research on the design process, both technical and social, are discussed. Although much progress has been made to exploit the computer in design, it is concluded that technology is available to begin using the computer to speed communications and management as well as calculations in the design process and thus build man-computer teams that can design better, faster and cheaper.

Heldenfels, R. R.↗

Collected notes from the Benchmarks and Metrics Workshop

In recent years there has been a proliferation of proposals in the artificial intelligence (AI) literature for integrated agent architectures. Each architecture offers an approach to the general problem of constructing an integrated agent. Unfortunately, the ways in which one architecture might be considered better than another are not always clear. There has been a growing realization that many of the positive and negative aspects of an architecture become apparent only when experimental evaluation is performed and that to progress as a discipline, we must develop rigorous experimental methods. In addition to the intrinsic intellectual interest of experimentation, rigorous performance evaluation of systems is also a crucial practical concern to our research sponsors. DARPA, NASA, and AFOSR (among others) are actively searching for better ways of experimentally evaluating alternative approaches to building intelligent agents. One tool for experimental evaluation involves testing systems on benchmark tasks in order to assess their relative performance. As part of a joint DARPA and NASA funded project, NASA-Ames and Teleos Research are carrying out a research effort to establish a set of benchmark tasks and evaluation metrics by which the performance of agent architectures may be determined. As part of this project, we held a workshop on Benchmarks and Metrics at the NASA Ames Research Center on June 25, 1990. The objective of the workshop was to foster early discussion on this important topic. We did not achieve a consensus, nor did we expect to. Collected here is some of the information that was exchanged at the workshop. Given here is an outline of the workshop, a list of the participants, notes taken on the white-board during open discussions, position papers/notes from some participants, and copies of slides used in the presentations.

Drummond, Mark E.↗

Understanding and Predicting the Process of Software Maintenance Releases

One of the major concerns of any maintenance organization is to understand and estimate the cost of maintenance releases of software systems. Planning the next release so as to maximize the increase in functionality and the improvement in quality are vital to successful maintenance management. The objective of this paper is to present the results of a case study in which an incremental approach was used to better understand the effort distribution of releases and build a predictive effort model for software maintenance releases. This study was conducted in the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center(GSFC). This paper presents three main results: 1) a predictive effort model developed for the FDD's software maintenance release process; 2) measurement-based lessons learned about the maintenance process in the FDD; and 3) a set of lessons learned about the establishment of a measurement-based software maintenance improvement program. In addition, this study provides insights and guidelines for obtaining similar results in other maintenance organizations.

Basili, Victor↗

Proposed Project Selection Method for Human Support Research and Technology Development (HSR&TD)

The purpose of HSR&TD is to deliver human support technologies to the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) that will be selected for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are acceptable. HSR&TD must select an may of technology development projects, guide them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the resulting number of usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project scoring methodology to support managing the HSR&TD project portfolio. Researchers strongly disagree as to what are the best technology project selection methods, or even if there are any proven ones. Technology development is risky and outstanding achievements are rare and unpredictable. There is no simple formula for success. Organizations that are satisfied with their project selection approach typically use a mix of financial, strategic, and scoring methods in an open, established, explicit, formal process. This approach helps to build consensus and develop management insight. It encourages better project proposals by clarifying the desired project attributes. We propose a project scoring technique based on a method previously used in a federal laboratory and supported by recent research. Projects are ranked by their perceived relevance, risk, and return - a new 3 R's. Relevance is the degree to which the project objective supports the HSR&TD goal of developing usable advanced human support technologies. Risk is the estimated probability that the project will achieve its specific objective. Return is the reduction in mission life cycle cost obtained if the project is successful. If the project objective technology performs a new function with no current cost, its return is the estimated cash value of performing the new function. The proposed project selection scoring method includes definitions of the criteria, a project evaluation questionnaire, and a scoring formula.

Jones, Harry↗

Modeling and Project Development

In order to reduce the costs of projects, it is necessary to make full use of today's modern simulation tools.

faster better cheaper (FBC) design build assemble ↗

A Fly-Through Mission Strategy Targeting Peptide as a Signature of Chemical Evolution and Possible Life in Enceladus Plumes

In situ detection of organic molecules in the extraterrestrial environment provides a key step towards better understanding the variety and the distribution of building blocks of life and it may ultimately lead to finding extraterrestrial life within the Solar System. Here we present combined results of two separate experiments that enable us to realize such in situ life signature detection from the deep habitats of the "Ocean World": a hydrothermal reactor experiment simulating complex organic synthesis and a simulated fly-through capture experiment of organic-bearing microparticles using silica aerogels, followed by subsequent analysis. Both experiments employ peptide as a plausible organics existing in Encleadus plume particles produced in its subsurface ocean. Recent laboratory hydrothermal experiments and a theoretical model on silica saturation indicated an on going hydrothermal reactions in subsurface Enceladus ocean. Given the porous chondritic origin of the core, it is likely that organic compounds originated by radiation chemistry such as amino acid precursors could have been provided, leached, and altered through widespread water-rock interactions. By using the same laboratory experimental setup from the latest water-rock interaction study, we performed amino acid polymerization experiments for 144 days and monitored the organic complexity changing over time. So far over 3,000 peaks up to the size of greater than 600 MW were observed through the analysis of capillary electrophoresis time-of-flight mass spectrometry (CE-TOF-MS) with an indication of amino acid derivatives and short peptides. Generally abiotic polymerization of enantiomeric amino acids results in forming stereoisomeric peptides with identical molecular weight and formula as opposed to homochiral biopolymers. Assuming Enceladus plume particles may contain a mixture of stereoisomeric peptides, we were able to distinguish 16 of the 17 stereoisomeric tripeptides as a test sample using capillary electrophoresis (CE) under optimized conditions. We further conducted Enceladus plume fly-through capture experiment by accelerating peptides soaked in rock particles up to a speed of 5.7 km/s and capturing with originally developed hydrophobic silica aerogels. Direct peptide extraction with acetonitrile-water followed by CE analysis led to detection of only but two stereoisomeric acidic peptide peaks, presenting the first run-through hypervelocuty impact sample analysis targeting peptides as key molecule to to understand the ongoing astrobiology on Enceladus.

organic molecules↗

To the Moon! Space Launch System Modal Testing with Video and Motion Magnification

MIT Lincoln Laboratory and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been collaborating on using video camera measurements and motion magnification for modal testing of large aerospace components for several years. This presentation will discuss results from the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test (IMT) and Dynamic Rollout/Rollback Test (DRRT) in support of the Artemis I mission. During the IMT, the data collection focused on operational mode shapes. In addition, the cameras were repositioned mid-test to better understand the physics of a low-frequency torsion mode. The non-contact nature of video data capture allowed for the quick redeployment of the cameras while not causing any delay in test schedule, whereas traditional instrumentation would have required a pause in testing to attach the sensors to the test article. The motion magnification analysis was able to find the low-frequency operational mode shapes and help the test team better understand the physics of the torsion mode. Building upon the success of the IMT motion magnification work, a camera system was used during the DRRT to find operational mode shapes, if the physics of the low-frequency torsion mode remained with different boundary conditions, and relative deflection of the vehicle and ML tower during the roll. In this paper we will present operational mode shape results, discuss the physics of the torsion mode, and review experimental setup idiosyncrasies to help the community in designing video camera measurement systems.

optical↗

Operations automation

This is truly the era of 'faster-better-cheaper' at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (NASA/JPL). To continue JPL's primary mission of building and operating interplanetary spacecraft, all possible avenues are being explored in the search for better value for each dollar spent. A significant cost factor in any mission is the amount of manpower required to receive, decode, decommutate, and distribute spacecraft engineering and experiment data. The replacement of the many mission-unique data systems with the single Advanced Multimission Operations System (AMMOS) has already allowed for some manpower reduction. Now, we find that further economies are made possible by drastically reducing the number of human interventions required to perform the setup, data saving, station handover, processed data loading, and tear down activities that are associated with each spacecraft tracking pass. We have recently adapted three public domain tools to the AMMOS system which allow common elements to be scheduled and initialized without the normal human intervention. This is accomplished with a stored weekly event schedule. The manual entries and specialized scripts which had to be provided just prior to and during a pass are now triggered by the schedule to perform the functions unique to the upcoming pass. This combination of public domain software and the AMMOS system has been run in parallel with the flight operation in an online testing phase for six months. With this methodology, a savings of 11 man-years per year is projected with no increase in data loss or project risk. There are even greater savings to be gained as we learn other uses for this configuration.

Boreham, Charles Thomas↗

Heterogeneous Clustering: Operational and User Impacts

Heterogeneous clustering can improve overall utilization of multiple hosts and can provide better turnaround to users by balancing workloads across hosts. Building a cluster requires both operational changes and revisions in user scripts.

Salm, Saita Wood↗

Ames Collaborative Support Facility/Sustainability Base

This presentation is intended to motivate research initiatives at the Collaborative Support Facility on the Ames Research Center Campus. Awards and accomplishments will be highlighted, along with specific research objectives. Information technology challenges with also be introduced as a key initiative to be addressed to enable the deployment of novel technologies that will offer deeper insights into how better reduced energy consumption, improve occupant satisfaction and streamline building operations and maintenance activities.

algortihms↗

Simulations of the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel for the Juncture Flow Experiment

NASA’s Transformational Tools and Technologies Program’s Juncture Flow experiment aims to provide data to improve Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling in the juncture flow region. The experiment is planned to provide validation-quality data for CFD that focuses on the separation bubble near the wing-body juncture trailing edge region. Because wind tunnel tests associated with the Juncture Flow project have been designed for the purpose of CFD validation, considerable effort is going into modeling and simulating the wind tunnel. This is not only important because wind tunnel wall effects can play a role in integrated testing uncertainties, but also because the better the boundary conditions are known, the better CFD can accurately represent the experiment. This paper builds on the recent CFD efforts to model the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. Current best practices in simulating wind tunnels are evaluated. The features of each method, as well as some of their pros and cons, are highlighted. Boundary conditions and modeling techniques currently used by CFD for empty-tunnel simulations are also described. Preliminary CFD studies associated with modeling the Juncture Flow model are summarized, with the intention to determine sensitivities of the flow near the wing-body juncture region of the model to a variety of modeling decisions.

Subsonic↗