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DOE OSTI2025

Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas

The atmospheric dynamics that occur near the intersection of land and water offer exciting and challenging opportunities for wind energy deployment in coastal locations. New models and tools are continually being developed in support of wind resource assessment, and three recent products are explored in this work for their performance in representing characteristics of the wind resource at coastal locations: the Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), and the wind climate simulations that are a component of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED Climate). These relatively new products are freely available and user-friendly so that anyone – from a utility-scale developer to a resident or business owner – can evaluate the potential for wind energy generation at their location of interest. The validations in this work provide guidance on the accuracy of wind resource assessments for coastal customers interested in installing small or midsize wind turbines (≤ 1 MW in capacity) to support energy needs at the residential, business, or community scale, such as the island and remotely located participants of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project. At 23 coastal locations across the United States, dataset performance varies according to different evaluation metrics. All three recent datasets tend to overestimate the observed coastal wind resource. GWA3 produces the smallest annual average wind speed relative errors, whereas WTK-LED Climate is in best agreement in terms of representing diurnal wind speed cycles. NOW-23 is the highest performing of the datasets for representing seasonal and interannual trends in the coastal wind resource. While GWA3 and WTK-LED Climate are relatively insensitive to the dataset output heights selected for wind resource assessment at small and midsize wind turbine hub heights (20–60 m), significant variation in the NOW-23 representation of wind shear across the wind profile in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere leads to notable differences in wind speed estimates according to the dataset output heights selected for evaluation. GWA3 exhibits challenges in the representation of observed wind speed diurnal cycles at small and midsize turbine hub heights, likely due to the dataset's consistent treatment of hourly wind speed trends regardless of altitude.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planning for Validation of Optical Property Degradation Predictions Using On-Orbit Telemetry

NASA’s Gateway Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) will employ high power Xenon Hall thrusters to transit from Earth orbit to a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO). Due to the extended duration of this transit phase and a high thruster duty cycle, there is expected to be significant material erosion caused by the ion plume and subsequent redeposition onto the main spacecraft radiators. While plume modeling and tests of redeposition have attempted to quantify the resulting impact to radiator optical properties, significant uncertainties remain. The flight of PPE presents an opportunity to validate some of the assumptions in this analytical chain, but there will be no specialized hardware that can directly characterize the property changes. However, the planned mission includes periods with significant solar flux to the radiators both early and late in the transit inducing differential heat loads on the vehicle. This presentation will explore options for analyzing possible impacts of various levels of redeposition and whether the severity can be accurately characterized via existing planned telemetry during a nominal mission.

PPE↗

DOE OSTI2024

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

SLAPex Freeze/Thaw 2015: The First Dedicated Soil Freeze/Thaw Airborne Campaign

Soil freezing and thawing is an important process in the terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles, marking the change between two very different hydraulic, thermal, and biological regimes. NASA's Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) mission includes a binary freeze/thaw data product. While there have been ground-based remote sensing field measurements observing soil freeze/thaw at the point scale, and airborne campaigns that observed some frozen soil areas (e.g., BOREAS), the recently-completed SLAPex Freeze/Thaw (F/T) campaign is the first airborne campaign dedicated solely to observing frozen/thawed soil with both passive and active microwave sensors and dedicated ground truth, in order to enable detailed process-level exploration of the remote sensing signatures and in situ soil conditions. SLAPex F/T utilized the Scanning L-band Active/Passive (SLAP) instrument, an airborne simulator of SMAP developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and was conducted near Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, in October/November, 2015. Future soil moisture missions are also expected to include soil freeze/thaw products, and the loss of the radar on SMAP means that airborne radar-radiometer observations like those that SLAP provides are unique assets for freeze/thaw algorithm development. This paper will present an overview of SLAPex F/T, including descriptions of the site, airborne and ground-based remote sensing, ground truth, as well as preliminary results.

BOREAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Near-Surface Variables in the RUC Land Surface Model in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

In this study, we investigate the parametric sensitivity of near-surface variables, such as sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, hub-height wind speed and land surface temperature, to the parameters used in the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) during a wintertime and summertime period. The model simulations are compared with observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign. The results suggest that parameters related to snow/ice and thermal processes can have significant impact on the simulated near-surface variables. Out of the 11 examined parameters, only 6 of them have considerable influences on the model behaviors and explain about 60 ~ 80 % of the estimated total variance of the simulated variables. In addition, the magnitude of the parametric sensitivity varies with season. For instance, parameters associated with snow/ice processes are dominant during the wintertime whereas those associated with thermal processes are more important during the summertime. Furthermore, the impact of the identified parameters on the simulated variables is highly related to the topography. There is a high degree of sensitivity to the parameter values over the slope region. This points out the importance of collecting field observations over steep areas to better quantity the appropriate values of key parameters. Overall, our findings provide a better understanding of the RUC LSM behavior associated with parameter uncertainties and can be used to improve the forecasting skill of land surface processes via calibration of the most uncertain model parameters.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Host population diversity as a driver of viral infection cycle in wild populations of green sulfur bacteria with long standing virus-host interactions

Abstract Temperate phages are viruses of bacteria that can establish two types of infection: a lysogenic infection in which the virus replicates with the host cell without producing virions, and a lytic infection where the host cell is eventually destroyed, and new virions are released. While both lytic and lysogenic infections are routinely observed in the environment, the ecological and evolutionary processes regulating these viral dynamics are still not well understood, especially for uncultivated virus-host pairs. Here, we characterized the long-term dynamics of uncultivated viruses infecting green sulfur bacteria (GSB) in a model freshwater lake (Trout Bog Lake, TBL). As no GSB virus has been formally described yet, we first used two complementary approaches to identify new GSB viruses from TBL; one in vitro based on flow cytometry cell sorting, the other in silico based on CRISPR spacer sequences. We then took advantage of existing TBL metagenomes covering the 2005–2018 period to examine the interactions between GSB and their viruses across years and seasons. From our data, GSB populations in TBL were constantly associated with at least 2-8 viruses each, including both lytic and temperate phages. The dominant GSB population in particular was consistently associated with two prophages with a nearly 100% infection rate for >10 years. We illustrate with a theoretical model that such an interaction can be stable given a low, but persistent, level of prophage induction in low-diversity host populations. Overall, our data suggest that lytic and lysogenic viruses can readily co-infect the same host population, and that host strain-level diversity might be an important factor controlling virus-host dynamics including lytic/lysogeny switch.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vertical Velocity under Shallow Cumulus

Vertical velocity distribution below cloud is one of the key determinants of cloud life cycle, but observations of this variable are extremely sparse in space. Doppler lidar retrievals and large-eddy simulations at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement User Facility Southern Great Plains site are used to determine whether vertical velocity statistics from temporally dense profiles at a single location can be substituted for spatial vertical velocity statistics. We show that even a small number (five) of widely distributed [ O (1°) latitude/longitude spacing] lidars is sufficient sampling to reconstruct domainwide spatial vertical velocity variance, but not higher moments of the vertical velocity distribution. Spatial and temporal vertical velocity variances in the Doppler lidar observations are nearly interchangeable as long as the spatial variance is temporally averaged and the temporal variance is averaged across lidars. This is true even though the dominant spatial scales of vertical velocity variability are ≲ 3 km, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the spacing between the lidars. Further, in the limit where the temporal variance does not vary across a spatial domain (e.g., if the meteorological and surface forcing of the atmospheric turbulence is homogeneous across the domain) and the domain-mean vertical velocity is zero, the commonly available retrieval of temporal vertical velocity variance at one site is equivalent to the spatial variance over the domain. We use an updraft parcel model to show that substituting temporal for spatial vertical velocity statistics will have a relatively minor effect on cloud droplet number concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

STILGAR End-of-Project Report

The Subsurface Tunnel Imaging LeveraGed by Analysis of Rayleigh wave ellipticity (STILGAR) project demonstrated an integrated geophysical approach for detecting, locating, and characterizing underground structural changes using dense seismic arrays and advanced inversion techniques. Field campaigns were conducted at two operational mines—the Redmond salt mine (Utah) and Graymont Pleasant Gap limestone mine (Pennsylvania)—providing real-world testbeds for monitoring anthropogenic subsurface activity. At the Redmond salt mine, seismic interferometry combined with back-projection inversion successfully identified continuous, low-amplitude signals from mining operations. The approach differentiated stationary from migrating anthropogenic sources, captured daily operational cycles, and validated the potential of passive seismic monitoring for remote detection of underground activity. At the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine, two dense seismic deployments in the spring and fall of 2023 generated over 4 TB of high-resolution data. Key outcomes included the relocation of 199 underground and 8 surface explosions with accuracies within tens of meters and the development of a 3D P-wave velocity model using the triple-difference tomography algorithm (tomoTD) that resolved major structural features such as the mine entrance, low-velocity tunnels, and roof-collapse areas. Ambient noise cross-correlation and back-projection analyses revealed persistent sources linked to ongoing mining activity, whereas horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and ellipticity studies confirmed stable site responses across seasons and identified soil thickness trends consistent with regional erosional and depositional processes. Checkerboard and sensitivity tests further validated the robustness of the tomographic results. Overall, the findings emphasize that although significant progress has been made in subsurface imaging, further work is needed to enhance the detection and localization of underground structures. Accurate imaging requires higher frequencies, yet anthropogenic sources tend to dominate the seismic record at those frequencies, and high-frequency surface waves are affected by higher modes that complicate interpretation. The improved detection and localization of human-induced signals enabled detailed temporal and spatial mapping of daily mine operations, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous anthropogenic source monitoring. Sensitivity to signals from nontraditional sources, such as fan operations, highlights the broader applicability of this approach to other industrial environments in which continuous and impulsive signals are present. The field campaigns produced a substantial volume of high-quality seismic data, supporting the development and testing of new methods for seismic source characterization and subsurface imaging. Future deployments should include sensors capable of recording lower frequencies to probe deeper structures, increase bandwidth to enhance resolution and sensitivity to both shallow and deep targets, and collect additional large-scale datasets to refine imaging and source characterization techniques. Moreover, conducting 3D modeling studies of seismic wavefields at higher frequencies will provide a better understanding of wave scattering and cavity–wavefield interactions in complex underground environments. In conclusion, the STILGAR project demonstrated that integrated seismic monitoring can effectively characterize underground operations, capturing both natural and anthropogenic signals. The approaches developed provide a foundation for improved detection, localization, and imaging of subsurface structures and are directly transferable to broader industrial monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗