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NASA NTRS1992

Estimating high mosquito-producing rice fields using spectral and spatial data

The cultivation of irrigated rice provides ideal larval habitat for a number of anopheline vectors of malaria throughout the world. Anopheles freeborni, a potential vector of human malaria, is associated with the nearly 240,000 hectares of irrigated rice grown annually in Northern and Central California; therefore, this species can serve as a model for the study of rice field anopheline population dynamics. Analysis of field data revealed that rice fields with early season canopy development, that are located near bloodmeal sources (i.e., pastures with livestock) were more likely to produce anopheline larvae than fields with less developed canopies located further from pastures. Remote sensing reflectance measurements of early-season canopy development and geographic information system (GIS) measurements of distanes between rice fields and pastures with livestock were combined to distinguish between high and low mosquito-producing rice fields. Using spectral and distance measures in either a discriminant or Bayesian analysis, the identification of high mosquito-producing fields was made with 85 percent accuracy nearly two months before anopheline larval populations peaked. Since omission errors were also minimized by these approaches, they could provide a new basis for directing abatement techniques for the control of malaria vectors.

Wood, B. L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Ogle-2018-BLG-0799lb: A Q ∼ 2.7 × 10(−3) Planet With Spitzer Parallax

We report the discovery and analysis of a planet in the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-0799. The planetary signal was observed by several ground-based telescopes, and the planet-host mass ratio is q = (2.65 ± 0.16) × 10(−3). The ground-based observations yield a constraint on the angular Einstein radius θE, and the microlensing parallax vector πE, is strongly constrained by the Spitzer data. However, the 2019 Spitzer baseline data reveal systematics in the Spitzer photometry, so there is ambiguity in the magnitude of the parallax. In our preferred interpretation, a full Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model indicates that the planetary system is composed of an Mplanet = 0.26+0.22 −0.11M(J) planet orbiting an Mhost = 0.093+0.082 −0.038 Mʘ , at a distance of DL = 3.71+3.24 −1.70 kpc. An alternate interpretation of the data shifts the localization of the minima along the arc-shaped microlens parallax constraints. This, in turn, yields a more massive host with median mass of 0.13 Mʘ at a distance of 6.3 kpc. This analysis demonstrates the robustness of the osculating circles formalism, but shows that further investigation is needed to assess how systematics affect the specific localization of the microlens parallax vector and, consequently, the inferred physical parameters.

gravitational lensing↗
NASA NTRS2019

OGLE-2015-BLG-1649Lb: A Gas Giant Planet around a Low-mass Dwarf

We report the discovery of an exoplanet from the analysis of the gravitational microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1649 that challenges the core accretion model of planet formation and appears to support the disk instability model. The planet/host-star mass ratio is q = 7.2 × 10^(−3) and the projected separation normalized to the angular Einstein radius is s = 0.9. We conducted high-resolution follow-up observations using the Infrared Camera and Spectrograph (IRCS) camera on the Subaru telescope and are able to place an upper limit on the lens flux. From these measurements we are able to exclude all host stars greater than or equal in mass to a G-type dwarf. We conducted a Bayesian analysis with these new flux constraints included as priors resulting in estimates of the masses of the host star and planet. These are ML = 0.34 ± 0.19 M⊙ and M(p)=2.5 (+1.5,-1.4) M(Jup), respectively. The distance to the system is D(L)=4.23 (+1.51, -1.64) kpc. The projected star–planet separation is a(┴)=2.07 (+0.65,-0.77) au. The estimated relative lens-source proper motion, ~7.1 mas/yr, is fairly high and thus the lens can be better constrained if additional follow-up observations are conducted several years after the event.

M. Nagakane↗
NASA NTRS2020

OGLE-2018-BLG-1700L: Microlensing Planet in Binary Stellar System

We report a planet in a binary that was discovered from the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1700. We identify the triple nature of the lens from the fact that the anomaly pattern can be decomposed into two parts produced by two binary-lens events, in which one binary pair has a mass ratio of ∼0.01 between the lens components and the other pair has a mass ratio of ∼0.3. We find two sets of degenerate solutions, in which one solution has a projected separation between the primary and its stellar companion less than the angular Einstein radius θ(E) (close solution), while the other solution has a separation greater than θ(E) (wide solution). From the Bayesian analysis with the constraints of the event timescale and angular Einstein radius, we find that the planet has a mass of 4.4(sup +3.0, sub -2.0) M(J) and the stellar binary components have masses of 0.42 (sup +0.29, sub -0.19) M(ʘ) and 0.12 (sup +0.08, sub -0.05) M(ʘ) , respectively, and the distance to the lens is D(L) = 7.6 (sup +1.2, sub -0.9) kpc. The planet is a circumstellar planet according to the wide solution, while it is a circumbinary planet according to the close solution.

Cheongho Han↗
NASA NTRS2020

One Planet or Two Planets? The Ultra-sensitive Extreme-magnification Microlensing Event KMT-2019-BLG-1953

We present the analysis of a very high-magnification (A ~ 900) microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-1953. A single-lens single-source (1L1S) model appears to approximately delineate the observed light curve, but the residuals from the model exhibit small but obvious deviations in the peak region. A binary-lens (2L1S) model with a mass ratio of q ~ 2 × 10^−3 improves the fits by Δχ2 = 181.8, indicating that the lens possesses a planetary companion. From additional modeling by introducing an extra planetary lens component (3L1S model) and an extra source companion (2L2S model), it is found that the residuals from the 2L1S model further diminish, but claiming these interpretations is difficult due to the weak signals with Δχ2 = 16.0 and 13.5 for the 3L1S and 2L2L models, respectively. From a Bayesian analysis, we estimate that the host of the planets has a mass of M(host)=0.31 (+0.37, -0.17) Mꙩ and that the planetary system is located at a distance of D9L)=7.04 (+1.10, -1.33) kpc toward the Galactic center. The mass of the securely detected planet is M(p)=0.64 (+0.76, -0.35) M(J). The signal of the potential second planet could have been confirmed if the peak of the light curve had been more densely observed by follow-up observations, and thus the event illustrates the need for intensive follow-up observations for very high-magnification events even in the current generation of high-cadence surveys.

Cheongho Han↗
NASA NTRS2019

OGLE-2017-BLG-1186: First Application of Asteroseismology and Gaussian Processes to microlensing

We present the analysis of the event OGLE-2017-BLG-1186 from the 2017 Spitzer microlensing campaign. This is a remarkable microlensing event because its source is photometrically bright and variable, which makes it possible to perform an asteroseismic analysis using ground-based data. We find that the source star is an oscillating red giant with average timescale of ∼9 d. The asteroseismic analysis also provides us source properties including the source angular size (∼27 μas) and distance (∼11.5 kpc), which are essential for inferring the properties of the lens. When fitting the light curve, we test the feasibility of Gaussian processes (GPs) in handling the correlated noise caused by the variable source. We find that the parameters from the GP model are generally more loosely constrained than those from the traditional χ(exp 2) minimization method. We note that this event is the first microlensing system for which asteroseismology and GPs have been used to account for the variable source. With both finite-source effect and microlens parallax measured, we find that the lens is likely a ∼0.045 Mʘ brown dwarf at distance ∼9.0 kpc, or a ∼0.073 Mʘ ultracool dwarf at distance ∼9.8 kpc. Combining the estimated lens properties with a Bayesian analysis using a Galactic model, we find a ∼ 35 per cent probability for the lens to be a bulge object and ∼ 65 per cent to be a background disc object.

S.-S. Li↗
NASA NTRS2019

OGLE-2018-BLG-1011Lb,c: Microlensing Planetary System with Two Giant Planets Orbiting a Low-mass Star

We report a multiplanetary system found from the analysis of microlensing event OGLE-2018-BLG-1011, for which the light curve exhibits a double-bump anomaly around the peak. We find that the anomaly cannot be fully explained by the binary-lens or binary-source interpretations and its description requires the introduction of an additional lens component. The 3L1S (three lens components and a single source) modeling yields three sets of solutions, in which one set of solutions indicates that the lens is a planetary system in a binary, while the other two sets imply that the lens is a multiplanetary system. By investigating the fits of the individual models to the detailed light curve structure, we find that the multiple-planet solution with planet-to-host mass ratios ∼9.5 X 10(exp −3) and ∼15 X 10(eap −3) are favored over the other solutions. From the Bayesian analysis, we find that the lens is composed of two planets with masses 1.8 (sup +3.4, sub -1.1) M(J) and 2.8 (sup +5.8, sub -1.7) M(J) around a host with a mass 0.18 (sup +0.33,sub - 0.10) M(ʘ) and located at a distance 7.1(sup +1.1, sub -1.5) kpc. The estimated distance indicates that the lens is the farthest system among the known multiplanetary systems. The projected planet–host separations are a(⊥,2) = 1.8 (sup +2.1, sub -1.5)au (0.8 (sup +0.9,sub -0.6 au) and a(⊥,3) = 0.8 (sup +0.9, sub -0.6)au , where the values of a(⊥,2) inside and outside the parenthesis are the separations corresponding to the two degenerate solutions, indicating that both planets are located beyond the snow line of the host, as with the other four multiplanetary systems previously found by microlensing.

Cheongho Han↗
NASA NTRS1972

A Bayesian approach to parameter and reliability estimation in the Poisson distribution.

For life testing procedures, a Bayesian analysis is developed with respect to a random intensity parameter in the Poisson distribution. Bayes estimators are derived for the Poisson parameter and the reliability function based on uniform and gamma prior distributions of that parameter. A Monte Carlo procedure is implemented to make possible an empirical mean-squared error comparison between Bayes and existing minimum variance unbiased, as well as maximum likelihood, estimators. As expected, the Bayes estimators have mean-squared errors that are appreciably smaller than those of the other two.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

On the robustness of a Bayes estimate

This paper examines the robustness of a Bayes estimator with respect to the assigned prior distribution. A Bayesian analysis for a stochastic scale parameter of a Weibull failure model is summarized in which the natural conjugate is assigned as the prior distribution of the random parameter. The sensitivity analysis is carried out by the Monte Carlo method in which, although an inverted gamma is the assigned prior, realizations are generated using distribution functions of varying shape. For several distributional forms and even for some fixed values of the parameter, simulated mean squared errors of Bayes and minimum variance unbiased estimators are determined and compared. Results indicate that the Bayes estimator remains squared-error superior and appears to be largely robust to the form of the assigned prior distribution.

Canavos, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Software models: A Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in the Jelenski-Moranda software reliability model

Maximum likelihood estimation procedures for the Jelinski-Moranda software reliability model often give misleading answers. A reparameterization and a Bayesian analysis eliminate some of the problems incurred by MLE methods and often give better predictions on sets of real and simulated data. Practical difficulties in estimating the initial number of errors N and the failure rate of each error phi by the method of maximum likelihood are: N, the MLE of N, is occasionally infinite (i.e., the routines for calculating N and phi do not converge). It is shown that N is finite sub i only if the regression line of the interevent times t sub i vs. i has positive slope. A serious problem is that often N approximates n, the sample size, and sometimes N = n. Thus the MLE predicts that the program is perfect even when it is far from being so. Only when almost all failures have been removed can N and phi be trusted near the end of debugging.

Littlewood, B.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Cosmic-structure constraints from a one-degree microwave-background anisotropy experiment

A recent anisotropy experiment with a 30-arcmin beam is close to optimal for testing models in which cosmic structure arose from inflation-generated Gaussian density perturbations. Using a Bayesian analysis to constrain the amplitude of the perturbation spectrum, it is shown that adiabatic hot-dark-matter models are convincingly ruled out and cold-dark-matter models have anisotropies near the derived limits. Theories with broken scale invariance such as isocurvature baryon models are strongly constrained, as are models with extra power crafted to give significant large-scale structures and flows.

Bond, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Hurricane risk assessment to rollback or ride out a cost versus loss decision making approach

The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

Wohlman, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Limits on Arcminute Scale Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy with the BIMA Array

We have used the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland-Association (BIMA) millimeter array outfitted with sensitive cm-wave receivers to search for Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropies on arcminute scales. The interferometer was placed in a compact configuration which produces high brightness sensitivity, while providing discrimination against point sources. Operating at a frequency of 28.5 GHz, the FWHM primary beam of the instrument is 6.6 arcminutes. We have made sensitive images of seven fields, five of which where chosen specifically to have low IR dust contrast and be free of bright radio sources. Additional observations with the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) millimeter array were used to assist in the location and removal of radio point sources. Applying a Bayesian analysis to the raw visibility data, we place limits on CMB anisotropy flat-band power Q_flat = 5.6 (+3.0, -5.6) uK and Q_flat < 14.1 uK at 68% and 95% confidence. The sensitivity of this experiment to flat band power peaks at a multipole of l = 5470, which corresponds to an angular scale of approximately 2 arcminutes The most likely value of Q_flat is similar to the level of the expected secondary anisotropies.

Holzapfel, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Error Distribution of BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Locations

Empirical probability models for BATSE gamma-ray burst (GRB) location errors are developed via a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 392 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 19 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4Br BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the probability in a "core" term with a systematic error of 1.85 deg and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.1 deg, which implies a 68% confidence radius for bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties of 2.2 deg. There is evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE data type that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT data type, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence radius for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties is 2.0 deg.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Limits on Arcminute-Scale Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropy at 28.5 GHz

We have used the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association (BIMA) millimeter array outfitted with sensitive centimeter-wave receivers to search for cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies on arcminute scales. The interferometer was placed in a compact configuration that produces high brightness sensitivity, while providing discrimination against point sources. Operating at a frequency of 28.5 GHz, the FWHM primary beam of the instrument is approximately 6'.6. We have made sensitive images of seven fields, four of which where chosen specifically to have low infrared dust contrast and to be free of bright radio sources. Additional observations with the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) millimeter array were used to assist in the location and removal of radio point sources. Applying a Bayesian analysis to the raw visibility data, we place limits on CMB anisotropy flat-band power of Q(sub flat) = 5.6(sub -5.6)(exp 3.0) microK and Q(sub flat) < 14.1 microK at 68% and 95% confidence, respectively. The sensitivity of this experiment to flat-band power peaks at a multipole of I = 5470, which corresponds to an angular scale of approximately 2'. The most likely value of Q(sub flat) is similar to the level of the expected secondary anisotropies.

Holzapfel, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

GLAST Burst Monitor Trigger Classification Algorithm

The Gamma Ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST), currently set for launch in the first quarter of 2007, will consist of two instruments, the GLAST Burst Monitor (GBM) and the Large Area Telescope (LAT). One of the goals of the GBM is to identify and locate gamma-ray bursts using on-board software. The GLAST observatory can then be re-oriented to allow observations by the LAT. A Bayesian analysis will be used to distinguish gamma-ray bursts from other triggering events, such as solar flares, magnetospheric particle precipitation, soft gamma repeaters (SGRs), and Cygnus X-1 flaring. The trigger parameters used in the analysis are the burst celestial coordinates, angle from the Earth's horizon, spectral hardness, and the spacecraft geomagnetic latitude. The algorithm will be described and the results of testing will be presented.

Perrin, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Exoplanetary Spin-Orbit Alignment: Results from the Ensemble of Rossiter-McLaughlin Measurements

One possible diagnostic of planet formation, orbital migration, and tidal evolution is the angle between a planet's orbital axis and the spin axis of its parent star. In general, Psi cannot be measured, but for transiting planets one can measure the angle lambda between the sky projections of the two axes via the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. In this paper we showed how to combine measurements of lambda in different systems to derive statistical constraints on Psi, using a Bayesian analysis. The results provided evidence for two distinct modes of planet migration.

Fabrycky, Daniel C.↗