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Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data Analysis of the 2020 Central Idaho Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence

In an effort to inform the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee for the Idaho National Laboratory, we provide an improved aftershock catalog related to the March 31, 2020, Mw6.5 Stanley, Idaho earthquake from picks related to a temporary network of two real-time and 15 non-telemetered seismometers within the epicentral area. From the permanent and temporary (XP) real-time network, the USGS cataloged 1,946 aftershocks between April 1, 2020 and October 31, 2020. To improve aftershock location and magnitudes, we manually picked arrival times of P and S waves from off-line stations in the XP temporary network, generated a new crustal velocity model, and independently relocated each event using the HypoDD double-difference earthquake algorithm. We created our new velocity model from existing broadband and active source seismic campaign data that were acquired near the epicentral region prior to the 2020 earthquake. We compare arrival time differences, epicentral locations and depths between aftershocks recorded with the two catalogs. We find the addition of local stations provides tighter aftershock clustering that suggests an improved aftershock locations. To detect lower magnitude events, we employed deep learning. Our method solves common problems associated with detecting many events that have a low signal-to-noise ratio. From the machine learning database, we detected more than 74,000 aftershocks. Based on the number of identified earthquakes and Gutenberg-Richter relationships derived from the USGS catalog, we estimate that we have reduced the completion magnitude for the Stanley earthquake sequence to below M1 using this machine learning approach. We located each aftershock with our new velocity model. Our new velocity model and picks suggests aftershocks occurred mostly at shallower depths than assessed in the USGS catalog. These aftershocks align along two linear trends that suggest the activation of two unnamed primary faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evolution of a Geological Model for Co-Producing Electricity at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Oil fields characterized by significant proportions of hot water in the reservoir offer a unique opportunity for geothermal energy co-production and utilization. Development of an accurate geological model is essential in understanding the subsurface. However, this is a challenge at the preliminary stages of resource assessment when data on the subsurface parameters and subterranean fault network is scarce. Our focus in this paper is to explore a methodology for developing an accurate conceptual geological model of the complexly faulted reservoir at the Blackburn Field, Nevada, to create a numerical simulation that will eventually be used to assess the potential of co-producing electricity. There are four steps to the evolution of this model: (1) collection of public data and research on the geological setting of the system; (2) digitization of seismic time-interpretation and cross-sections to create the most representative model of the subsurface; and (3) creation of a natural-state numerical model to simulate the thermal gradient through the subsurface. Utilizing publicly available data of the geological system and Leapfrog conceptual modeling software, we refined a preliminary model to be more representative of the subsurface geology of an active geothermal exploration stage project. The conceptual geological model developed has been imported into VOLSUNG reservoir modeling software to create a natural-state model, further characterizing the Blackburn Field reservoir's thermal gradient. In the future, new seismic data will be utilized to further evolve the conceptual geological model for numerical simulations.

Basin and Range province↗

Building a Framework to Understand Transition Metals' Behavior in Euxinic Conditions (Final Technical Report)

This project focuses first and foremost on metal sulfide geochemistry and mineralogy as controlled by a complex matrix of environmental factors. The principal investigator’s group aim to illuminate the metal-sulfide reaction mechanisms, rates, and pathways through systematic experimentation and data collection and analyzing the relationships between the characteristics of the produced metal sulfide solid-phase/aqueous complexes and the environmental factors. This understanding is essential for obtaining a full picture of the complex cycling patterns of single or multi metal species in sulfidic environments ranging from deep-see basins, hydrothermal vents, inland seas, terrestrial water bodies, to engineered remediation systems. The specific goal of this past project was to illuminate the reaction mechanisms and kinetics of metal anions and sulfide in mixed metal cation-metal anion-sulfide systems under various aqueous conditions (which resembled a range of naturally occurring euxinic settings). For the period of this contract, we investigated the molybdenum-iron-sulfide system, with an emphasis on the conditions that caused solid phase formation. We focused on quantifying the mobility/sequestration of molybdenum under each experimental condition and identified the changes of valence states for each involved element (i.e., Mo, Fe, and S) in the precipitate. We also proposed pathways for the electron transfer that occurred in aqueous chemistry. The major analytical tools used for this study include UV-visible light spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and synchrotron-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy (access gained through facility proposals to the Canadian Light Source). The biggest finding of this project was that besides pH, the iron-sulfur chemistry has a dominant control of the thiolation kinetics and subsequent reduction of Mo(VI), which are likely prerequisites of molybdenum sequestration in anoxic conditions. The results have been written up as manuscript by the end of this project (see Phillips et al.). The experimental results of this project may be critical for advancing our understanding of (1) basic chemistry involving transition metals and reduced sulfur species, (2) the validity of certain geochemical proxies, and (3) the stability and evolution of euxinic geochemical environments. It is noted that the basic results obtained through this project also have implications for Mo-S cluster-based catalyst development in inorganic chemistry and materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of structure and volcanic stratigraphy on groundwater and surface water flow: Hat Creek basin, California, USA

Abstract Hydrogeologic systems in the southern Cascade Range in California (USA) develop in volcanic rocks where morphology, stratigraphy, extensional structures, and attendant basin geometry play a central role in groundwater flow paths, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and spring discharge locations. High-volume springs (greater than 3 m 3 /s) flow from basin-filling (<800 ka) volcanic rocks in the Hat Creek and Fall River tributaries and contribute approximately half of the average annual flow of the Pit River, the largest tributary to Shasta Lake. A hydrogeologic conceptual framework is constructed for the Hat Creek basin combining new geologic mapping, water-well lithologic logs, a database of active faults, LiDAR mapping of faults and volcanic landforms, streamflow measurements and airborne thermal infrared remote sensing of stream temperature. These data are used to integrate the geologic structure and the volcanic and volcaniclastic stratigraphy to create a three-dimensional interpretation of the hydrogeology in the basin. Two large streamflow gains from focused groundwater discharge near Big Spring and north of Sugarloaf Peak result from geologic barriers that restrict lateral groundwater flow and force water into Hat Creek. The inferred groundwater-flow barriers divide the aquifer system into at least three leaky compartments. The two downstream compartments lose streamflow in the upstream reaches (immediately downstream of the groundwater-flow barriers) and gain in downstream reaches with the greatest inflows immediately upstream of the barriers.

Geology↗

Remotely Sensed Carbonyl Sulfide Constrains Model Estimates of Amazon Primary Productivity

We report understanding the magnitude of tropical gross primary production (GPP) is critical for carbon cycle modeling and climate projections, but this quantity is poorly constrained at regional scales. Biospheric uptake of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides a promising approach to estimating regional GPP. Here, we simulate OCS concentrations driven by surface flux scenarios encompassing a wide range of GPP estimates for the Amazon basin. We compare the model output to satellite retrievals and find a regional GPP estimate of 2375 ± 914 g(C) m –2 yr –1 , consistent with previous estimates, including the TRENDY model ensemble range of 1431–3812 g(C) m –2 yr –1 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detrital U-Pb zircon and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar muscovite geochronology from Middle Pennsylvanian strata in the Anadarko Basin, Texas Panhandle, USA

The Late Mississippian-Permian Anadarko Basin formed in Texas and Oklahoma, USA as the result of inversion of Neoproterozic and Cambrian rift structures. Subsidence was driven by flexural loading of the Amarillo-Wichita Uplift, and this uplift may represent the easternmost element of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains system. The northwestern part of this basin has generally been interpreted to have been filled by sediment derived from the Ancestral Front Range Uplift, ~475 km to the northwest during the early stages of basin filling. We test this model using U-Pb detrital zircon and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar detrital muscovite results from three subsurface samples of the Morrow B sandstone in the northwestern part of the Anadarko Basin. We provide a new maximum depositional age of 310.9 ± 4.9 Ma that indicates the age of the Morrow B to be no older than late Atokan to early Desmoinesian Age (Moscovian), ~10 Myr younger than previously interpreted. In contrast to some previous interpretations, we propose that the most likely source for the sediment in the Morrow B is the Amarillo Uplift to the south. Detrital zircon and detrital muscovite data have age peaks at 900–1300 Ma, 1370 Ma and 1600–1800 Ma corresponding to derivation from Grenville, Granite-Rhyolite and Yavapai-Mazatzal basement provinces, respectively. A dominant detrital zircon peak at 1370 Ma suggests that Mesoproterozoic granites in the Amarillo Uplift were exposed by Middle Pennsylvanian time, and detritus eroded from the Amarillo Uplift dominated the lowstand sediment budget of the Texas Panhandle during this time; small volumes of sediment were likely sourced from the Ancestral Front Range. In conclusion, this study presents the first detrital geochronology data from the subsurface Anadarko Basin and the first detrital muscovite data from late Paleozoic southwestern Laurentia. The results presented here highlight the interpretive power of combined detrital zircon and muscovite datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assessing Hydrological Alteration Caused by Climate Change and Reservoir Operations in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Freshwater aquatic ecosystems are highly sensitive to flow regime alteration caused by anthropogenic activities, including river regulation and atmospheric warming-induced climate change. Either climate change or reservoir operations are among the main drivers of changes in the flow regime of rivers globally. Using modeled unregulated and simulated regulated streamflow under historical and future climate scenarios, this study evaluated potential changes to the flow regime due to climate change and reservoir operations for the major tributaries of the San Joaquin River Basin, California United States. We selected a set of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) to evaluate historical and projected future trends of streamflow dynamics: rise and fall rates, durations and counts of low and high pulses, and the magnitude of extremes. Results show that most indicators have pronounced departures from baseline conditions under anticipated future climate conditions given existing reservoir operations. For example, the high pulse count decreases during regulated flow conditions compared to increased frequency under unregulated flow conditions. Finally, we observed a higher degree of flow regime alteration due to reservoir operations than climate change. The degree of alteration ranges from 1.0 to 9.0% across the basin among all future climate scenarios, while reservoir operations alter the flow regime with a degree of alteration from 8.0 to 25%. This study extends multi-dimensional hydrologic alteration analysis to inform climate adaptation strategies in managed river systems.

Maskey, Mahesh L.↗

Author Correction: Genome-guided isolation of the hyperthermophilic aerobe Fervidibacter sacchari reveals conserved polysaccharide metabolism in the Armatimonadota

Correction to: Nature Communicationshttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-53784-3, published online 4 November 2024 In the version of this article initially published, Table 1 did not include the properties of the taxa being proposed or refer directly to another location in the main manuscript describing the properties. As such, the original manuscript did not comply with Rule 27 (2)(c) of the ICNP. Also, Table 1 listed the order Fervidibacterales as the nomenclatural type for the class Fervidibacteria, which violates latest emended version of Rule 15 stating that the nomenclatural type for a class must be a genus. Below we provide a modification of Table 1 containing protologues with these errors corrected. We have also changed the order of the taxa in the table to meet the most common ordering. (Table presented.) Taxon names proposed under the ICNP Proposed taxon Etymology Description Genus Fervidibacter Fer.vi.di.bac’ter. L. masc. adj. fervidus, hot, steaming; N.L. masc. n. bacter, a rod; N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter, a hot rod Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic, with high-affinity and/or low-affinity terminal oxidases present in the genomes. The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and the tricarboxylic acid cycle are complete in genomes belonging to the genus. Gram-stain-negative and diderm cell envelope structure. Ovoid- to rod-shaped morphology. Spores are not formed. The genus is a distinct phylogenetic lineage in the family Fervidibacteraceae, the order Fervidibacterales, and the class Fervidibacteria in the phylum Armatimonadota. The type species is Fervidibacter sacchariT. Species Fervidibacter sacchari sac’cha.ri. N.L. gen. n. sacchari, of sugar Hyperthermophilic, microaerophilic, facultatively anaerobic, and grows chemoheterotrophically on monosaccharides and polysaccharides. Cells are ovoid- to rod-shaped, Gram-stain negative, and are 0.9–1.3 µm in width and 1.6–3.6 µm in length. Grows between 65 and 87.5 °C and an optimum temperature of 80 °C, and a pH range of 6.5–8.6 with an optimum pH of 7.5. Grows at an optimum O2 concentration of 5–10%. Grows on D-arabinose, D-galactose, D-glucose, D-rhamnose, D-ribose, D-xylose, chondroitin sulfate, colloidal chitin, galactan, gellan gum, guar gum, karaya gum, locust bean gum, xantham gum, xyloglucan, β-glucan, glycogen, starch, AFEX-pretreated corn stover, miscanthus, sugarcane bagasse, acetate and casamino acids. Grows weakly on xyloglucan under fermentation conditions. The major fatty acids (>10%) are C16:0, C18:0 and/or cyclo-C17:0, and iso-C16:0. The major respiratory quinones (>10%) are MK-8 and MK-9. The isolate and genomes of the species have been recovered from geothermal springs in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA. GC content of genomes range between 51–52%. Subunits for both the high-affinity and low-affinity terminal oxidases are encoded in the genomes. Genomes also encode a Group 3d [NiFe] hydrogenase, which produces hydrogen as an electron sink for NAD+ regeneration. The type strain PD1T (= JCM 39283T = DSM 113467T) was isolated from Great Boiling Spring in Nevada, USA. Family Fervidibacteraceae Fer.vi.di.bac.te.ra’ce.ae. N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter type genus of the family; L. suff. -aceae ending to denote a family; N.L. fem. pl. n. Fervidibacteraceae the family of the genus Fervidibacter Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic, with high-affinity and/or low-affinity terminal oxidases present in the genomes. The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway and the tricarboxylic acid cycle are complete in genomes belonging to the family. The family is a distinct phylogenetic lineage in the order Fervidibacterales and the class Fervidibacteria in the phylum Armatimonadota. The type genus is Fervidibacter. Order Fervidibacterales Fer.vi.di.bac.te.ra’les. N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter type genus of the order; L. suff. -ales ending to denote an order; N.L. fem. pl. n. Fervidibacterales the order of the genus Fervidibacter Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic or strictly anaerobic. Phylogenomic placement of this lineage within the Fervidibacteria and relative evolutionary divergence supports delineation of this lineage as an order within the class Fervidibacteria and phylum Armatimonadota. The type genus is Fervidibacter. Class Fervidibacteria Fer.vi.di.bac.te’ri.a. N.L. masc. n. Fervidibacter type genus of the type order of the class; L. suff. -ia ending to denote a class; N.L. neut. pl. n. Fervidibacteria the class of the order Fervidibacterales Thermophilic or hyperthermophilic inhabitants of freshwater thermal environments. All members are likely polysaccharide-degrading chemoheterotrophs with numerous carbohydrate-active enzymes encoded in their genomes. Aerobic or strictly anaerobic. Phylogenomic placement of this lineage within the Armatimonadota and relative evolutionary divergence supports delineation of this lineage as a class within the Armatimonadota. The type genus is Fervidibacter. The error has not been corrected in the PDF or HTML versions of the Article.

Nou, Nancy O↗

A computer vision algorithm for interpreting lacustrine carbonate textures at Searles Valley, USA

Investigations of the paleohydrologies of pluvial lake systems have often employed lake carbonate deposits called “tufa” that grow subaqueously and can be preserved long after the drying of the lake. For this reason, tufa have been used as a proxy for minimum lake level. However, they exhibit a variety of textures that hold the potential to reveal richer paleoclimatological information. With the goal of determining if tufa texture can be used as a proxy for lake environment, this study investigates the textures of tufa at Mono Lake, California in comparison to the fossil tufa in Searles Valley, California. While observations in the last century suggest that the tufa in the Mono basin grew in waters similar to the modern, the tufa at Searles formed during the last glacial period, when the Great Basin contained a system of pluvial lakes on the scale of the modern Great Lakes. The tufa at both basins have been observed to have a range of classifiable textures, and new methods of inspecting visual data could be informative about what factors control these textures. To this end, a t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) algorithm is used to project images of the tufa at Searles and Mono into a coordinate space, allowing for simple, quantitative comparisons of the visual similarity of textures. In this work, the textures of tufa at Searles are compared to each other, as well as to the tufa at Mono. This study performs a robust assessment of the feasibility of Mono Lake as a modern analogue for Searles Valley. It finds that there is a justifiable basis for the comparison of certain fossil facies at Searles to the tufa at Mono, significant progress towards the goal of using texture as a metric for the environment in which tufa formed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mountain waves can impact wind power generation

Abstract. Mountains can modify the weather downstream of the terrain. In particular, when stably stratified air ascends a mountain barrier, buoyancy perturbations develop. These perturbations can trigger mountain waves downstream of the mountains that can reach deep into the atmospheric boundary layer where wind turbines operate. Several such cases of mountain waves occurred during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River basin in the lee of the Cascade Range bounding the states of Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Signals from the mountain waves appear in boundary layer sodar and lidar observations as well as in nacelle wind speeds and power observations from wind plants. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations also produce mountain waves and are compared to satellite, lidar, and sodar observations. Simulated mountain wave wavelengths and wave propagation speeds (group velocities) are analyzed using the fast Fourier transform. We found that not all mountain waves exhibit the same speed and conclude that the speed of propagation, magnitudes of wind speeds, or wavelengths are important parameters for forecasters to recognize the risk for mountain waves and associated large drops or surges in power. When analyzing wind farm power output and nacelle wind speeds, we found that even small oscillations in wind speed caused by mountain waves can induce oscillations between full-rated power of a wind farm and half of the power output, depending on the position of the mountain wave's crests and troughs. For the wind plant analyzed in this paper, mountain-wave-induced fluctuations translate to approximately 11 % of the total wind farm output being influenced by mountain waves. Oscillations in measured wind speeds agree well with WRF simulations in timing and magnitude. We conclude that mountain waves can impact wind turbine and wind farm power output and, therefore, should be considered in complex terrain when designing, building, and forecasting for wind farms.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The spatial and temporal evolution of the Portland and Tualatin forearc basins, Oregon, USA

The Portland and Tualatin basins are part of the Salish-Puget-Willamette Lowland, a 900-km-long, forearc depression lying between the volcanic arc and the Coast Ranges of the Cascadia convergent margin. Such inland seaways are characteristic of warm, young slab subduction. We analyzed the basins to better understand their evolution and relation to Coast Range history and to provide an improved tectonic framework for the Portland metropolitan area. We model three key horizons in the basins: (1) the top of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), (2) the bottom of the CRBG, and (3) the top of Eocene basement. Isochore maps constrain basin depocenters during (1) Pleistocene to mid-Miocene time (0–15 Ma), (2) CRBG (15.5–16.5 Ma), and (3) early Miocene to late Eocene (ca. 17–35 Ma) time. Results show that the Portland and Tualatin basins have distinct mid-Miocene to Quaternary depocenters but were one continuous basin from the Eocene until mid-Miocene time. A NW-striking gravity low coincident with the NW-striking, fault-bounded Portland Hills anticline is interpreted as an older graben coincident with observed thickening of CRBG flows and underlying sedimentary rocks. Neogene transpression in the forearc structurally inverted the Sylvan-Oatfield and Portland Hills normal faults as high-angle dextral-reverse faults, separating the Portland and Tualatin basins. An eastward shift of the forearc basin depocenter and ten-fold decrease in accommodation space provide temporal constraints on the emergence of the Coast Range to the west. Clockwise rotation and northward transport of the forearc is deforming the basins and producing local earthquakes beneath the metropolitan area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration

Stream and river ecosystems play a central role in the movement and decomposition of particulate organic matter, serving as a conduit between terrestrial hillslopes and coastal environments. Microbial-catalyzed decomposition generates simpler organic molecules that fuel respiration, often in the sediments of these ecosystems. However, the degree of connection between sediment-associated respiration (ER??d) and organic-matter decomposition remains poorly understood. How that relationship compares to decomposition’s relationship with whole ecosystem (ERtot) and water column (ERwc) respiration is also not clear. We examined the link between particulate organic matter decomposition—using cellulose-based cotton strips as a standardized substrate—and all three components of respiration across 48 sites in the environmentally diverse Yakima River Basin (Washington State, USA). We hypothesized that decomposition within sediments would be most strongly related to ERsed, but decomposition rates were more closely associated with ERtot, with little connection to ERsed or ERwc. This suggests that particulate organic matter decomposition within stream/river sediments reflects integrated system respiration rather than processes confined to sediments or the water column alone. Further, across the basin, decomposition rates nearly spanned the previously reported global range for streams and rivers and were best explained by total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), sediment grain size, and aridity of the upstream drainage area. These results highlight the strong influence of land cover and basin-scale biophysical variation on sediment-associated decomposition processes and indicate that mechanistic models of organic matter decomposition in streams/rivers should account for coupled sediment–water–land interactions.

Stegen, James C. (ORCID:0000000191357424)↗

Analysis of Seismic Wave Amplification in Sedimentary Basins Using 3D Wavefield Simulations: Nenana Basin, Central Alaska

We investigate seismic wave amplification in Nenana basin, central Alaska, using 3D seismic wavefield simulations. We quantify frequency-dependent amplification by comparing synthetic seismograms among four different seismic velocity models: (a) a tomographic model, (b) a tomographic model with the uppermost 6.5 km replaced by a 1D basin profile, (c) a tomographic model with an embedded ellipsoidal basin, and (d) a tomographic model with an embedded realistic basin. For each model we perform wavefield simulations accurate up to 2 Hz for a set of 10 different earthquakes, which provide a range of frequencies and incident angles for waves interacting with the basin. Average amplification ratios are four on the horizontal components and seven on the vertical component. The dominant influence of the amplification is the 3D geometry of the basin, not the slow-velocity profile near the surface. Our synthetic amplification ratios are in general agreement with amplification estimates obtained from 14 stations that recorded the same set of earthquakes. Our approach offers a general strategy for documenting frequency-dependent basin amplification for a region with realistic basin structures and local earthquakes.

Geosciences↗

Examining Daily Temporal Characteristics of Oil and Gas Methane Emissions in the Delaware Basin Using Continuous Tower Observations

Top-down studies have found consistent underestimations in the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane emissions inventory from the oil and gas (O&G) sector. Many of these studies use observations that bias toward hours when worktime activity occurs. In this study, we analyze over 2 years of methane measurements from a tower network in the Delaware basin to analyze hourly temporal emission patterns. Inversion results suggest a range in emissions from 137 Mg/hr at night to 197 Mg/hr during the day, present during both weekdays and weekends. If these results are applicable to other basins, daytime-influenced methodologies may overestimate daily emission rates by up to 27%. This bias does not reconcile the more than 200% difference between the EPA inventory and top-down estimates in the Delaware basin. This study demonstrates how continuous measurement networks can be combined with detailed activity data to improve bottom-up inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving Productivity to Recover and Restore Columbia River Stream-Type Chinook Salmon Relies on Increasing Smolt-To-Adult Survival

Abstract We analyzed and compared productivity and survival rates of populations of stream-type Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the upper and middle ranges of their distribution in the Columbia River basin. These two groups of populations undergo vastly different exposures during migration through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Declines of the Snake River populations, listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, have been associated with the development and operation of the FCRPS. In contrast, John Day River stream-type Chinook Salmon populations, which were less affected by the FCRPS, have declined to a lesser extent and are not listed. Smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs) accounted for a majority of the variation in life cycle survival rates of Snake River Chinook Salmon. Productivity declined to 13% and 44% of historical productivity levels for Snake River and John Day River populations, respectively. A synthesis of previous studies contrasting anthropogenic impacts between the two regions supports the conclusion that FCRPS impacts explain the large difference in population productivity. Our results suggest that SARs of 4% would result in an expected productivity of up to 70% of historical levels (a SAR level consistent with regional restoration objectives). The SARs have been shown to be highly influenced by conditions within the FCRPS (e.g., water velocity and passage through dam powerhouses). Marine conditions also influence SARs; however, meaningful management actions are only available to affect conditions within the FCRPS. Given the importance of SARs to overall life cycle productivity, recovery and restoration strategies need to prioritize actions that have potential to substantially increase SARs by addressing the significant impacts of main-stem dams. This study highlights the importance of considering river management options in the face of increasingly variable and warming ocean conditions.

Petrosky, Charles E.↗

Using a Customized Portable Deepwater Portable Electrofisher to Assess Larval Lamprey Populations in Irrigation Canals

Larval lamprey densities were quantified at two large-scale water diversions facilities located on the Yakima River near the city of Yakima, Washington. Water diversions are very common in the Yakima River Basin and provide water to irrigate a diverse range of valuable cropland. Out-migrating larval Pacific Lamprey are vulnerable to entrainment through fish protection screens during the withdrawal period and desiccation or predation during dewatering at the end of the season. In order to determine the impact to lamprey populations which inhabit these regions a portable deepwater electroshocking system was utilized to determine lamprey densities which could otherwise not be determined due to water depth. Surveys were conducted in the fall during the dewatering period in 2015 and 2017 and larval lamprey densities ranged from 0.8 to 8.8 fish m-2 at the Sunnyside Diversion Facility to 4.2 to 6.5 fish m-2 at the Wapato Diversion Facility. The estimates for the total lamprey numbers at each of the region using a portable deepwater electrofishing platform (PDEP) was very similar to those estimates using backpack electrofishing post-dewatering; the PDEP method was 12- 36% higher where comparisons were available. During 2017, the estimated lamprey entrainment at the Sunnyside Diversion increased by 484% from August to November. Lamprey lengths were also determined and ranged from 50 to 130 mm. Our results indicate that the use of the deepwater shocking system was very safe and effective at determining larval lamprey densities at hard to sample regions which are present near irrigation facilities.

larval lamprey, electrofishing, water diversion↗