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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Improvements and Verification of A Full Body Model in Opensim

BACKGROUND: The dynamic feasibility [1,2] criterion, that the subject’s Center of Pressure (COP) be located within the Base of Support (BOS) which outlines the feet, has aided in assessing the stability of human motion recorded on earth while performing the recorded tasks in lunar gravity or as countermeasures exercises on a vibration isolation and stabilization system in microgravity. The convex hull of the BOS on the platform under the subject’s feet was estimated using virtual markers on the feet of the scaled subject model. The COP was calculated using the ground reaction forces and moments determined from motion capture data with biomechanical modeling tools [3]. Occasionally, large-amplitude oscillatory spikes or “artifacts” were observed in the subject’s linear and angular momentum derivatives, affecting some COP data derived from motion capture. The purpose of this investigation was to assess and improve the accuracy of model scaling and BOS estimation as well as to determine the efficacy of model adjustments in mitigating artifacts influencing motion capture-derived ground reaction force and COP results. METHODS: To aid evaluation of proposed process and model updates, motion capture data were collected for two subjects during unit test and range of motion trials, lunar tasks, and countermeasures exercise motions. Markers were added to the full body Plug-in Gait marker set [4] during data collection. New markers were placed on the front, back, sides, and top of the head to improve scaling using distances between marker pairs. Medial elbow markers were added to stabilize the upper arm during OpenSim Inverse Kinematics (IK) [5]. Finally, markers were added on the outer edge of the heels and on the outside edges of the first and last toes on each foot. These additional foot markers were made available to test new automated foot scaling techniques and to calculate the error between the subject’s estimated and recorded BOS. The modified unscaled OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model [6,7] was adjusted using some previously investigated techniques [8] to mitigate rapid shifts in joint angles occurring during IK, as these were found to cause the spike artifacts observed in subsequent stages of analysis. Since OpenSim models use Euler angles and rotation sequences, the arm axes of rotation were adjusted, and the pelvis order of rotation was changed to minimize the likelihood of encountering “gimbal lock” during common human motion. The model clavicle, arm, elbow, wrist, pelvis, and ankle angle limits were adjusted to better accommodate the full human range of motion seen in exercise and lunar data. The shoulder joint center was calculated using a “pivoting” algorithm [9], and both shoulder joint center and upper arm markers were included during IK to provide additional shoulder stability on a case-by-case basis. The quality of IK results was assessed by three criteria: minimizing error between recorded motion capture markers and model markers, checking for reasonable rates of change in joint angles between fames (i.e., no IK artifacts), and ensuring the absence of spikes in the inertial forces and angular momentum derivatives calculated using a custom OpenSim plugin [10]. RESULTS: The additional markers placed on the subject during data collection allowed the head and feet to be scaled more accurately using distances between new marker pairs. Scaling with BOS markers placed on the subject and removing the limit on subtalar angle resulted in more accurate BOS determination. Unrealistically large changes in joint angles between frames could be reduced by including clavicle, sternum, and medial elbow markers during IK. In cases with large arm ranges of motion, results could be further improved by running IK using medial elbow and virtual shoulder joint center markers. Model adjustments significantly improved the IK results affecting COP calculation and increased the accuracy of BOS estimation.

C A Bell↗
DOE OSTI2015

Solar, Install, Mount, Production, Labor, Equipment Balance of Systems

The GTRI led project team in partnership with the DOE, universities, and numerous industry leaders, have advanced the mission of the DOE EERE, the Solar Energy Technologies Program, and the SunShot Initiative by accelerating the research, development, and demonstration of solar PV technologies that provide Extreme Balance of Systems Cost Reductions (BOS-X). The research produced 132 design concepts, resulting in 19 invention disclosures, five patent applications, four 90% pre-commercial designs, and three licensed technologies. Technology practice rights were obtained by an industry partner, and a new solar commercial start-up company was launched in Atlanta as a result of this project. Innovations in residential, commercial, and utility scale balance of systems technologies were realized through an unprecedented multi-disciplinary university/industry partnership with over 50 students and 24 faculty members that produced 18 technical publications, a PhD thesis, and two commercially deployed operating prototypes. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the multidisciplinary systems based approach executed by the project team was realized through 1) a comprehensive evaluation of industry, regulatory, and public stakeholder requirements; 2) numerous industry/student/faculty engagements in design studios, technical conferences, and at solar PV installation sites; 3) time and motion studies with domain experts that provided technical data and costs for each phase and component of the solar PV installation processes; 4) extensive wind tunnel and systems engineering modeling; and 5) design, construction, and demonstration of the selected technologies in the field at high profile sites in Atlanta. The SIMPLE BOS project has benefitted the public in the following ways: • Workforce development: The launch of a start-up company to commercialize the DOE funded SIMPLE BoS designs has directly created 9 new jobs in the State of Georgia. As of November 2014, the Georgia solar industry employs 2,890 solar workers, representing a 12.8% growth in employment over 2013 (Solar Jobs Census, 2014). • Growth of the solar industry: The DOE SIMPLE BoS SunShot Award to GTARC accelerated the growth of the solar industry in Georgia, due to the national publicity of the award and the engagement of numerous solar PV manufacturers, designers, and installers on the SIMPLE BoS project. In 2011 less than 50 megawatts of solar PV capacity existed in Georgia; by 2016 Georgia may reach nearly 800 MW of total approved solar capacity with the 2012 Georgia Power Advanced Solar Initiative. • Technical outreach and publications: Georgia Tech has participated in numerous technical symposiums, technology demonstrations, campus solar PV tours, and produced 18 publications for the solar industry and general public. • Cost reductions for consumers: The SIMPLE BoS pre-commercial systems and discoveries enable cost reductions of 50% or more in labor and materials for residential, commercial and utility scale PV installations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

ORBIT: Offshore Renewables Balance-of-System and Installation Tool

This report describes the Offshore Renewables Balance-of-system Installation Tool ("ORBIT"), a new model developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the balance-of-system (BOS) costs associated with offshore wind projects. In the context of wind energy projects BOS costs encompass all expenses required to construct a project other than the capital expenditures (CapEx) of the turbines and towers, including the procurement costs for all other components (such as substructures, cables, and electrical infrastructure), offshore and land-based construction costs, port costs, site surveying fees, permitting fees, and leasing fees are all categorized as BOS costs. BOS costs significantly contribute to the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for offshore wind, typically comprising over 50\% of the CapEx for a fixed-bottom offshore wind project and 60\% for a floating project. In addition, technology solutions and installation methods vary drastically between projects as they are impacted by factors such as vessel availability, geographic considerations and site geotechnical conditions. These effects require a model with appropriate fidelity to understand how these costs scale as turbine rating increases and the offshore wind supply chain, particularly offshore construction vessels, is expanded. For offshore wind, cost savings attributed to increased turbine rating are primarily realized through BOS procurement and project installation as fewer substructures and less cable are required. BOS costs represent both a modeling challenge, as well as an opportunity, for project developers to optimize solutions to reduce costs. It is critical to understand how these costs are affected by novel technologies, innovative installation processes, and operational constraints in order identify meaningful cost reductions for offshore wind energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

Background Oriented Schlieren Applied to Study Shock Spacing in a Screeching Circular Jet

Background oriented schlieren (BOS) is a recent development of the schlieren and shadowgraph methods. The BOS technique has the ability to provide visualizations of the density gradient in both the axial and radial directions. The resultant magnitude of the density gradients allows for comparison with shadowgraph images. This paper first compares data obtained by the BOS and shadowgraph techniques at identical conditions in a free jet. The patterns and spacing of the shock trains obtained by the two techniques are found to be consistent with one another. This provides confidence in the shock spacing measurement by the BOS technique. Due to its simpler setup, BOS is then applied to investigate the shock spacing associated with the screech phenomenon, especially during stage jumps. Screech frequencies from a 37.6 mm convergent nozzle, as a function of jet Mach number (M(sub j)), are shown to exhibit various stages. As many as eight stages are identified with the present nozzle over the range 1.0 < M(sub j) <1.7. BOS images are acquired at various screech conditions and the shock spacing is examined as a function of M(sub j).

Clem, Michelle M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Background-Oriented Schlieren used in a hypersonic inlet test at NASA GRC

Background Oriented Schlieren (BOS) is a derivative of the classical schlieren technology, which is used to visualize density gradients, such as shock wave structures in a wind tunnel. Changes in refractive index resulting from density gradients cause light rays to bend, resulting in apparent motion of a random background pattern. The apparent motion of the pattern is determined using cross-correlation algorithms (between no-flow and with-flow image pairs) producing a schlieren-like image. One advantage of BOS is its simplified setup which enables a larger field-of-view (FOV) than traditional schlieren systems. In the present study, BOS was implemented into the Combined Cycle Engine Large-Scale Inlet Mode Transition Experiment (CCE LIMX) in the 10x10 Supersonic Wind Tunnel at NASA Glenn Research Center. The model hardware for the CCE LIMX accommodates a fully integrated turbine based combined cycle propulsion system. To date, inlet mode transition between turbine and ramjet operation has been successfully demonstrated. High-speed BOS was used to visualize the behavior of the flow structures shock waves during unsteady inlet unstarts, a phenomenon known as buzz. Transient video images of inlet buzz were recorded for both the ramjet flow path (high speed inlet) and turbine flow path (low speed inlet). To understand the stability limits of the inlet, operation was pushed to the point of unstart and buzz. BOS was implemented in order to view both inlets simultaneously, since the required FOV was beyond the capability of the current traditional schlieren system. An example of BOS data (Images 1-6) capturing inlet buzz are presented.

Background-oriented schlieren↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow over an espresso cup: inferring 3-D velocity and pressure fields from tomographic background oriented Schlieren via physics-informed neural networks

Tomographic background oriented Schlieren (Tomo-BOS) imaging measures density or temperature fields in three dimensions using multiple camera BOS projections, and is particularly useful for instantaneous flow visualizations of complex fluid dynamics problems. We propose a new method based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to infer the full continuous three-dimensional (3-D) velocity and pressure fields from snapshots of 3-D temperature fields obtained by Tomo-BOS imaging. The PINNs seamlessly integrate the underlying physics of the observed fluid flow and the visualization data, hence enabling the inference of latent quantities using limited experimental data. In this hidden fluid mechanics paradigm, we train the neural network by minimizing a loss function composed of a data mismatch term and residual terms associated with the coupled Navier–Stokes and heat transfer equations. We first quantify the accuracy of the proposed method based on a two-dimensional synthetic data set for buoyancy-driven flow, and subsequently apply it to the Tomo-BOS data set, where we are able to infer the instantaneous velocity and pressure fields of the flow over an espresso cup based only on the temperature field provided by the Tomo-BOS imaging. Moreover, we conduct an independent PIV experiment to validate the PINN inference for the unsteady velocity field at a centre plane. To explain the observed flow physics, we also perform systematic PINN simulations at different Reynolds and Richardson numbers and quantify the variations in velocity and pressure fields. Furthermore, the results in this paper indicate that the proposed deep learning technique can become a promising direction in experimental fluid mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

NREL's Balance-of-System Cost Model for Land-Based Wind

NREL's Land-based Balance of System Systems Engineering (LandBOSSE) model is a tool for modeling the balance of system (BOS) costs of land-based wind plants. BOS costs currently account for approximately 30% of the capital expenditures needed to install a land-based wind plant and include all costs associated with installing a wind plant, such as permitting, labor, material, and equipment costs associated with site preparation, foundation construction, electrical infrastructure, and tower installation. NREL developed LandBOSSE after identifying a need for a hybrid of process-based and empirically derived model that can provide flexibility for assessing wind plant BOS costs at a system level. NREL's prior BOS models have relied on empirical fits of legacy industry data, which limit their predictive ability. LandBOSSE, however, was designed to help users explore tradeoffs between innovative design scenarios while balancing the level of detail and speed required for model execution. The model was developed using a hybrid of process-based and empirically derived methods to create a modular model design that will allow for updates as wind energy technology evolves. The goal of LandBOSSE is to allow researchers, analysts, wind power developers, government agencies, and the public to explore how BOS may vary for different wind plant designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Twenty-Five Years of Background-Oriented Schlieren: Advances and Novel Applications

Since its introduction in the year 2000, background-oriented schlieren (BOS) has become acornerstone technique for visualizing variable-density flows. In this review, we provide a rigorousexamination of the optical principles underpinning BOS and related refractive-index-basedtechniques, complemented by an appendix linking schlieren imaging to Maxwell’s equations.The core sections delve into the practical aspects of BOS, with detailed discussions on imageprocessing algorithms and critical considerations for experimental setups. We then explorerecent advancements and innovations, including extensions of BOS with tomography, dataassimilation, and event-based imaging. Finally, we present notable applications of BOS inchallenging and unconventional environments, showcasing the method’s versatility and offerinspiration for future research directions.

Background-Oriented Schlieren↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Considerations for High-Speed Background-Oriented Schlieren Visualization Capability for Ground Test Facilities

Since its introduction in the year 2000, background-oriented schlieren (BOS) has become a cornerstone technique for visualizing variable-density flows. In this review, we provide a rigorous examination of the optical principles underpinning BOS and related refractive-index-based techniques, complemented by an appendix linking schlieren imaging to Maxwell’s equations. The core sections delve into the practical aspects of BOS, with detailed discussions on image processing algorithms and critical considerations for experimental setups. We then explore recent advancements and innovations, including extensions of BOS with tomography, data assimilation, and event-based imaging. Finally, we present notable applications of BOS in challenging and unconventional environments, showcasing the method’s versatility and offer inspiration for future research directions.

Brett Bathel↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive photovoltaic (PV) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Solar-energy cost reductions can be realized through lower PV module and balance-of-system (BOS) costs as well as improved system efficiency and reliability. Numerous combinations of PV improvements could help achieve the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) goals because of the tradeoffs among key metrics like module price, efficiency, and degradation rate as well as system price and lifetime. Using LCOE modeling based on bottom-up cost analysis, two specific pathways are mapped to exemplify the many possible approaches to module cost reductions of 29%-38% between 2015 and 2020. BOS hardware and soft cost reductions, ranging from 54%-77% of total cost reductions, are also modeled. The residential sector's high supply-chain costs, labor requirements, and customer-acquisition costs give it the greatest BOS cost-reduction opportunities, followed by the commercial sector, although opportunities are available to the utility-scale sector as well. Finally, a future scenario is considered in which very high PV penetration requires additional costs to facilitate grid integration and increased power-system flexibility--which might necessitate even lower solar LCOEs. The analysis of a pathway to 3-5 cents/kWh PV systems underscores the importance of combining robust improvements in PV module and BOS costs as well as PV system efficiency and reliability if such aggressive long-term targets are to be achieved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

PIV/BOS synthetic image generation in variable density environments for error analysis and experiment design

In this work, we present an image generation methodology based on ray tracing that can be used to render realistic images of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and Background Oriented Schlieren (BOS) experiments in the presence of density/refractive index gradients. This methodology enables the simulation of aero-thermodynamics experiments for experiment design, error, and uncertainty analysis. Images are generated by emanating light rays from the particles or dot pattern, and propagating them through the density gradient field and the optical elements, up to the camera sensor. The rendered images are realistic, and can replicate the features of a given experimental setup, like optical aberrations and perspective effects, which can be deliberately introduced for error analysis. We demonstrate this methodology by simulating a BOS experiment with a known density field obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of homogeneous buoyancy driven turbulence, and comparing the light ray displacements from ray tracing to results from BOS theory. The light ray displacements show good agreement with the reference data. This methodology provides a framework for further development of simulation tools for use in experiment design and development of image analysis tools for PIV and BOS applications. Finally, an implementation of the proposed methodology in a Python-CUDA program is made available as an open source software for researchers.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling trends for balance-of-system costs at land-based wind power plants: Opportunities for innovations in foundation and erection

Wind power plant sizes, hub heights, and turbine ratings have increased since 2008 to optimize the cost and performance of wind power; however, the limits of these economies of scale remain unclear. Here, we explore how the costs incurred to install turbines at a wind power plant—the balance-of-system (BOS) costs—scale with turbine rating, hub height, and plant size. We also investigate how these changes in BOS costs influence the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). We show that increasing the plant size from 150 to 400 MW could reduce the BOS costs by 21%. We also show that if the foundation costs decreased by 50%, building a wind power plant with 5-MW turbines (having rotor diameters of 166 m and hub heights of 120 m) could decrease the LCOE by 5%. These results could help inform future BOS cost-reduction opportunities and thereby reduce future capital costs for land-based wind power.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

Simultaneous Conventional and Plenoptic Background Oriented Schlieren Imaging

Plenoptic Background Oriented Schlieren (BOS) is an emerging schlieren technique that is capable of providing 3D qualitative and quantitative information about density gradients present in a wide range of fluid dynamics problems. In this work, the fundamental concepts of plenoptic BOS are reviewed before discussing an open-air experiment with a buoyant plume where both conventional BOS and plenoptic BOS measurements were acquired simultaneously. Both cameras had the same field-of-view for all experiments, and three different focal plane arrangements were explored: (1) the focal plane was set to the background positions and the plume varied between 11 different positions relative to this focal plane, (2) the focal plane was set to 635- millimeters in front of the background position, and (3) the nominal focal plane varied while the position of the plume remained fixed. Such discussion will provide insight on how the two techniques compare, and what additional work is required to better understand the results provided by these two imaging systems.

Klemkowsky, Jenna N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty amplification due to density/refractive index gradients in background-oriented schlieren experiments

Here, we theoretically analyze the effect of density/refractive index gradients on the measurement precision of background-oriented schlieren (BOS) experiments by deriving the Cramer–Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the 2D centroid estimation process. A model is derived for the diffraction limited image of a dot viewed through a medium containing density gradients that includes the effect of the experimental parameters such as the magnification and f-number. It is shown using the model that nonlinearities in the density gradient field lead to blurring of the dot image. This blurring amplifies the effect of image noise on the centroid estimation process, leading to an increase in the CRLB and a decrease in the measurement precision. The ratio of position uncertainties of a dot in the reference and gradient images is shown to be a function of the ratio of the dot diameters and dot intensities. We termed this parameter the amplification ratio (A F ), and a methodology for reporting position uncertainties in tracking-based BOS measurements is proposed. The theoretical predictions of the dot position estimation variance from the CRLB are compared to ray tracing simulations, and agreement is obtained. The uncertainty amplification is also demonstrated on experimental BOS images of flow induced by a spark discharge, where it is seen that regions of high amplification ratio correspond to regions of density gradients. This analysis elucidates the dependence of the position uncertainty on density and refractive index gradient-induced distortion parameters, provides a methodology for accounting its effect on uncertainty quantification and provides a framework for optimizing experiment design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty-based weighted least squares density integration for background-oriented schlieren

We propose an improved density integration methodology for Background-Oriented Schlieren (BOS) measurements that overcomes the noise sensitivity of the commonly used Poisson solver. Here, the method employs a weighted least-squares (WLS) optimization of the 2D integration of the density gradient field by solving an over-determined system of equations. Weights are assigned to the grid points based on density gradient uncertainties to ensure that a less reliable measurement point has less effect on the integration procedure. Synthetic image analysis with a Gaussian density field shows that WLS constrains the propagation of random error and reduces it by 80% in comparison to Poisson for the highest noise level. Using WLS with experimental BOS measurements of flow induced by a spark plasma discharge shows a 30% reduction in density uncertainty in comparison to Poisson, thereby increasing the overall precision of the BOS density measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A new class of tandems: Optically coupled III-V/silicon module with outdoor efficiency exceeding 30%

The aim of this project was to introduce a new class of technology—that of high-efficiency silicon-based tandem photovoltaic (PV) modules—that, with follow-on development, has a clear path to reduced levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale power generation. In particular, the objective of the project was to demonstrate the first 30%-efficient III-V/silicon module in outdoor conditions using a tandem geometry in which the sub-cells are detached physically but coupled optically. In present PV power plants installed in the US, the module makes up only approximately one-third of the cost; area-dependent balance-of-systems (BOS) costs such as installation materials, labor, land, and site prep made up an additional third, and area-independent BOS costs round out the final third. With this pricing structure, (annually averaged) module efficiency is a clear market driver: increase the annual energy output per module and the effective costs translated into $/W of both the module and the area-dependent BOS—two-thirds of the total cost—decrease proportionately. However, the dominant PV technology—flat-plate silicon modules—is reaching its theoretical efficiency limit, and thus a tandem technology in which silicon is coupled with a wider-bandgap cell is a promising route to remain responsive to market forces. As it is not trivial to couple silicon with other cells in conventional two-terminal geometries due to, e.g., lattice mismatch, this project introduced a new, four-terminal configuration using a “PVMirror.” A PVMirror utilizes PV cells as a three-in-one technology—they act as a concentrating mirror, spectrum splitter, and high-efficiency light-to-electricity converter. Light is incident upon a full-aperture dichroic mirror that reflects visible light and transmits infrared light. The transmitted light is absorbed in silicon PV cells that are placed behind the dichroic mirror and that convert IR photons to electricity with high efficiency. The dichroic mirror and silicon PV cells are affixed to a curved glass trough that tracks the sun about a single, North-South axis such that the reflected VIS light is concentrated at a common line focus, at which is placed a second, wider-bandgap GaAs PV cell having high efficiency at shorter wavelengths. The innovation of PVMirrors lies in their design, which maximizes annual energy output and minimizes the constraints placed on the sub-cells. In particular, the cells are free of lattice- and current-matching restrictions, neither cell requires a transparent rear electrode, and either sub-cell can be placed at the focus depending on their relative costs. Furthermore, the greatest benefit of PVMirrors is that they make use of a portion of the diffuse light whereas concentrator tandems cannot. This results in a benefit in energy yield and extends PVMirrors’ competitive range. Over the course of this one-year project, a silicon PVMirror and GaAs receiver were fabricated, characterized, and placed outdoors on a sun tracker, where the efficiency of the tandem “module” was measured for three days. Notable results include the first demonstration of this flexible tandem configuration, a maximum tandem efficiency of 29.6% (just shy of the 30% overall project goal), successful conversion of diffuse light into electricity, a thorough loss analysis indicating a path to over 31% efficiency, and a roadmap to cost-competitive PVMirror tandems using a wide-bandgap polycrystalline PVMirror and a silicon receiver. Development of a >18%-efficient wide-bandgap polycrystalline cell—the key enabler of this envisioned tandem—should be a future research focus. This project has laid the groundwork for a PV technology that, with continued development, has the potential to reach LCOEs as low as $0.03/kWh according to our calculations. Such a system would provide the public with inexpensive, clean solar power.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗