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At least 55 records · Page 3

A Numerical Study of the Liquid Motion in Titan’s Subsurface Ocean

An ocean filled with liquid water lies beneath the icy surface of several Jovian and Saturnian moons. In such an ocean, the currents are driven by various phenomena such as the tidal forcing, the deformation of the ice shell lying at its top, the temperature gradient resulting from the surface and bottom heat fluxes…The flow induced by the first two forcings can be modelled by means of a 2D depth-averaged model, while the third one generates horizontal and vertical density variations whose effects can only be captured by a 3D baroclinic model. We study the tides of Titan’s subsurface ocean and the impact of the ice shell on the liquid motion by means of the Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice–ocean Model, SLIM (https://www.climate.be/slim). The impact of the ice shell lying at the top of the ocean is modelled by a surface friction term and surface pressure terms. The latter are a function of the difference between the ocean elevation and the vertical displacement of the shell and the time derivative of this difference. Because of Titan’s appreciable obliquity (0.306°), the tidal motion expected (and found) is similar to the Europa tidal scenario described by Tyler (2008): the surface elevation consists of two bulges rotating around Titan and the associated depth-averaged velocity field consists of two gyres, separated by an area of high speed flow, whose centre follows a sinusoidal path centred on the equator. The ice shell damps the surface motion, thus slowing down the flow, without significantly modifying the spatial patterns of these fields. The depth of the ocean and the mechanical characteristics of the ice shell being poorly constrained, a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The depth-averaged flow slows down when the depth is increased and a lag appears in the tidal phase but the tidal range remains similar. The ice shell mechanical characteristics influences both the elevation and depth-averaged velocity fields in terms of magnitude but does not modify the spatial patterns of these fields. The influence of the surface heat flux is studied by means of the 3D baroclinic version of SLIM. The heat flux derived from Titan’s topography by Kvorka et al. (2018) is used as surface boundary condition for the temperature equation while a uniform bottom heat flux is implemented. Its value is computed assuming that the heat budget of the ocean is at equilibrium. These boundary conditions cause density variations, which impact the hydrodynamics of the ocean. While the flow velocity induced by these variations is two orders of magnitude smaller than the tidal flow, its orientation is time-independent, hence impacting the orientation of the velocity field. Although the variations of ocean surface elevation and speed with respect to the shell mechanical properties can be larger than those induced by the surface heat flux, taking into account the latter results in large variations of the velocity field global patterns, which was not observed when modifying the shell mechanical properties. Future studies should therefore focus on modelling the surface and bottom heat fluxes while uncertainties about the mechanical characteristics of the shell can be tolerated.

Titan↗

Average-passage flow model development

A 3-D model was developed for simulating multistage turbomachinery flows using supercomputers. This average passage flow model described the time averaged flow field within a typical passage of a bladed wheel within a multistage configuration. To date, a number of inviscid simulations were executed to assess the resolution capabilities of the model. Recently, the viscous terms associated with the average passage model were incorporated into the inviscid computer code along with an algebraic turbulence model. A simulation of a stage-and-one-half, low speed turbine was executed. The results of this simulation, including a comparison with experimental data, is discussed.

Adamczyk, John J.↗

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale Climate Features and Climate Sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project↗

The effect of realistic conductivities on the high-latitude neutral thermospheric circulation

The dynamics of the high latitude thermosphere are dominated by the ion circulation pattern driven by magnetospheric convection. The reaction of the neutral thermosphere is influenced by both the magnitude of the ion convection velocity and by the conductivity of the thermosphere. Using a three-dimensional, time-dependent, thermospheric, neutral model together with different ionospheric models, the effect of changes in conductivity can be assessed. The ion density is described by two models: the first is the empirical model of Chiu (1975) appropriate for very quiet geomagnetic conditions, and the second is a modified version of the theoretical model of Quegan et al. (1982). The differences in the neutral circulation resulting from the use of these two ionospheric models emphasizes the need for realistic high latitude conductivities when attempting to model average or disturbed geomagnetic conditions, and a requirement that models should couple realistically the ionosphere and the neutral thermosphere. An attempt is made to qualitatively interpret some of the features of the neutral circulation produced at high latitudes by magnetospheric processes.

Fuller-Rowell, T. J.↗

Landsat Derived Bathymetry of Lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plan of Northern Alaska

The Pleistocene sand sea on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is underlain by anancient sand dune field, a geological feature that affects regional lake characteristics. Many of these lakes, whichcover approximately 20 % of the Pleistocene sand sea, are relatively deep (up to 25 m). In addition to the nat-ural importance of ACP sand sea lakes for water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat, the need forwinter water for industrial development and exploration activities makes lakes in this region a valuable resource.However, ACP sand sea lakes have received little prior study. Here, we collect in situ bathymetric data to test12 model variants for predicting sand sea lake depth based on analysis of Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager(OLI) images. Lake depth gradients were measured at 17 lakes in midsummer 2017 using a Humminbird 798ciHD SI Combo automatic sonar system. The field-measured data points were compared to red–green–blue (RGB)bands of a Landsat-8 OLI image acquired on 8 August 2016 to select and calibrate the most accurate spectral-depth model for each study lake and map bathymetry. Exponential functions using a simple band ratio (withbands selected based on lake turbidity and bed substrate) yielded the most successful model variants. For eachlake, the most accurate model explained 81.8 % of the variation in depth, on average. Modeled lake bathymetrieswere integrated with remotely sensed lake surface area to quantify lake water storage volumes, which rangedfrom 1.056×10−3to 57.416×10−3km3. Due to variations in depth maxima, substrate, and turbidity betweenlakes, a regional model is currently infeasible, rendering necessary the acquisition of additional in situ datawith which to develop a regional model solution. Estimating lake water volumes using remote sensing will fa-cilitate better management of expanding development activities and serve as a baseline by which to evaluatefuture responses to ongoing and rapid climate change in the Arctic. All sonar depth data and modeled lakebathymetry rasters can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2SN01440 (Simpson and Arp, 2018) andhttps://doi.org/10.18739/A2HT2GC6G (Simpson, 2019), respectively.

Claire E Simpson↗

A seasonal radiative-dynamic model of Saturn's troposphere

The present steady-state, linearized and zonally-averaged model of the thermal response of Saturn's atmosphere to seasonal insolation is compared with extant data in order to extract diagnostic information on the planet's troposphere and stratosphere. The planet's rings are shown to constitute a strong modulator of the seasonal insolation function. A detailed comparison of the model with existing temperature measurements shows that the large thermal inertia of Saturn and uncertainties in the wind and thermal measurements overwhelm the rings' thermal effects. A meridional asymmetry in heating is noted which is consistent with an enhancement of aerosols and of photochemically generated ethane and acetylene in the southern hemisphere's summer.

Barnet, C. D.↗

SEE Rate Estimation: Model Complexity and Data Requirements

Statistical Methods outlined in [Ladbury, TNS20071 can be generalized for Monte Carlo Rate Calculation Methods Two Monte Carlo Approaches: a) Rate based on vendor-supplied (or reverse-engineered) model SEE testing and statistical analysis performed to validate model; b) Rate calculated based on model fit to SEE data Statistical analysis very similar to case for CREME96. Information Theory allows simultaneous consideration of multiple models with different complexities: a) Model with lowest AIC usually has greatest predictive power; b) Model averaging using AIC weights may give better performance if several models have similar good performance; and c) Rates can be bounded for a given confidence level over multiple models, as well as over the parameter space of a model.

Ladbury, Ray↗

Analysis and design of an adaptive multi-loop controlled two winding buck/boost regulator

Small signal low frequency linear average model is derived for a multi-loop controlled two-winding buck/boost converter employing average techniques and the describing function method. The model reveals that a well-designed multi-loop control can provide a second-order zero adaptive to output filter parameter changes due to component tolerances, temperature changes, aging, and the effect of duty cycle modulation. It also can provide stabilization effect by shifting the positive zero to the left-half S-plane. Design guidelines are formulated to optimize regulator-loop dependent characteristics.

Mahmoud, M. F.↗

Thermal Pollution Math Model. Volume 1. Thermal Pollution Model Package Verification and Transfer

Two three dimensional, time dependent models, one free surface, the other rigid lid, were verified at Anclote Anchorage and Lake Keowee respectively. The first site is a coastal site in northern Florida; the other is a man-made lake in South Carolina. These models describe the dispersion of heated discharges from power plants under the action of ambient conditions. A one dimensional, horizontally-averaged model was also developed and verified at Lake Keowee. The data base consisted of archival in situ measurements and data collected during field missions. The field missions were conducted during winter and summer conditions at each site. Each mission consisted of four infrared scanner flights with supporting ground truth and in situ measurements. At Anclote, special care was taken to characterize the complete tidal cycle. The three dimensional model results compared with IR data for thermal plumes on an average within 1 C root mean square difference. The one dimensional model performed satisfactorily in simulating the 1971-1979 period.

Lee, S. S.↗

2008 GEM Modeling Challenge: Metrics Study of the Dst Index in Physics-Based Magnetosphere and Ring Current Models and in Statistical and Analytic Specifications

In this paper the metrics-based results of the Dst part of the 2008-2009 GEM Metrics Challenge are reported. The Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for 4 geomagnetic storm events and 5 different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical or climatological or physics-based (e.g. MHD) models of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. We present the results of over 25 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations we use comparisons of one-hour averaged model data with the Dst index issued by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, Japan, and direct comparison of one-minute model data with the one-minute Dst index calculated by the United States Geologic Survey (USGS).

Rastaetter, L.↗

The 'Little Ice Age' - Northern Hemisphere average observations and model calculations

Numerical energy balance climate model calculations of the average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere for the past 400 years are compared with a new reconstruction of the past climate. Forcing with volcanic dust produces the best simulation, whereas expressing the solar constant as a function of the envelope of the sunspot number gives very poor results.

Robock, A.↗

Stably stratified shear turbulence: A new model for the energy dissipation length scale

A model is presented to compute the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation length scale l(sub epsilon) in a stably stratified shear flow. The expression for l(sub epsilon) is derived from solving the spectral balance equation for the turbulent kinetic energy. The buoyancy spectrum entering such equation is constructed using a Lagrangian timescale with modifications due to stratification. The final result for l(sub epsilon) is given in algebraic form as a function of the Froude number Fr and the flux Richardson number R(sub f), l(sub epsilon) = l(sub epsilon)(Fr, R(sub f). The model predicts that for R(sub f) less than R(sub fc), l(sub epsilon) decreases with stratification. An attractive feature of the present model is that it encompasses, as special cases, some seemingly different models for l(sub epsilon) that have been proposed in the past by Deardorff, Hunt et al., Weinstock, and Canuto and Minotti. An alternative form for the dissipation rate epsilon is also discussed that may be useful when one uses a prognostic equation for the heat flux. The present model is applicable to subgrid-scale models, which are needed in large eddy simulations (LES), as well as to ensemble average models. The model is applied to predict the variation of l(sub epsilon) with height z in the planetary boundary layer. The resulting l(sub epsilon) versus z profile reproduces very closely the nonmonotonic profile of l(sub epsilon) exhibited by many LES calculations, beginning with the one by Deardorff in 1974.

Cheng, Y.↗

Partially-Averaged Navier Stokes Model for Turbulence: Implementation and Validation

Partially-averaged Navier Stokes (PANS) is a suite of turbulence closure models of various modeled-to-resolved scale ratios ranging from Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) to Navier-Stokes (direct numerical simulations). The objective of PANS, like hybrid models, is to resolve large scale structures at reasonable computational expense. The modeled-to-resolved scale ratio or the level of physical resolution in PANS is quantified by two parameters: the unresolved-to-total ratios of kinetic energy (f(sub k)) and dissipation (f(sub epsilon)). The unresolved-scale stress is modeled with the Boussinesq approximation and modeled transport equations are solved for the unresolved kinetic energy and dissipation. In this paper, we first present a brief discussion of the PANS philosophy followed by a description of the implementation procedure and finally perform preliminary evaluation in benchmark problems.

Girimaji, Sharath S.↗

Studies in astronomical time series analysis. I - Modeling random processes in the time domain

Several random process models in the time domain are defined and discussed. Attention is given to the moving average model, the autoregressive model, and relationships between and combinations of these models. Consideration is then given to methods for investigating pulse structure, procedures of model construction, computational methods, and numerical experiments. A FORTRAN algorithm of time series analysis has been developed which is relatively stable numerically. Results of test cases are given to study the effect of adding noise and of different distributions for the pulse amplitudes. A preliminary analysis of the light curve of the quasar 3C 272 is considered as an example.

Scargle, J. D.↗

Experimental Heat Transfer and Bulk Air Temperature Measurements for a Multipass Internal Cooling Model with Ribs and Bleed

An experimental study was made to obtain heat transfer and air temperature data for a simple 3-leg serpentine test section that simulates a turbine blade internal cooling passage with trip strips and bleed holes. The objectives were to investigate the interaction of ribs and various bleed conditions on internal cooling and to gain a better understanding of bulk air temperature in an internal passage. Steady state heat transfer measurements were obtained using a transient technique with thermochromic liquid crystals. Trip strips were attached to one wall of the test section and were located either between or near the bleed holes. The bleed holes, used for film cooling, were metered to simulate the effect of external pressure on the turbine blade. Heat transfer enhancement was found to be greater for ribs near bleed holes compared to ribs between holes, and both configurations were affected slightly by bleed rates upstream. Air temperature measurements were taken at discreet locations along one leg of the model. Average bulk air temperatures were found to remain fairly constant along one leg of the model.

Thurman, Douglas↗

Experimental Heat Transfer and Bulk Air Temperature Measurements for a Multipass Internal Cooling Model with Ribs and Bleed

An experimental study was made to obtain heat transfer and air temperature data for a simple three-leg serpentine test section that simulates a turbine blade internal cooling passage with trip strips and bleed holes. The objectives were to investigate the interaction of ribs and various bleed conditions on internal cooling and to gain a better understanding of bulk air temperature in an internal passage. Steady-state heat transfer measurements were obtained using a transient technique with thermochromic liquid crystals. Trip strips were attached to one wall of the test section and were located either between or near the bleed holes. The bleed holes, used for film cooling, were metered to simulate the effect of external pressure on the turbine blade. Heat transfer enhancement was found to be greater for ribs near bleed holes compared to ribs between holes, and both configurations were affected slightly by bleed rates upstream. Air temperature measurements were taken at discrete locations along one leg of the model. Average bulk air temperatures were found to remain fairly constant along one leg of the model.

Thurman, Douglas↗

A note on the diurnal averaging of aeronomical models

An approximate technique for diurnally time-averaging atmospheric photochemical-dynamical models which eliminates the need for a detailed numerical resolution of sunrise and sunset transitions is developed. The scheme is equivalent to scaling certain chemical rate constants and photodissociation coefficients by appropriate aeronomical factors. To calculate the scaling factors, diurnal variations are parameterized with a step-function behavior, assuming that each species has a constant day-time and night-time concentration whose ratio can be determined by analyzing the chemical interactions occurring after sunset. The solution accounts for the effects of night-time reactions on the 24 h average values of species abundances, and on the average daily rates of the catalytic processes consuming ozone in the stratosphere. The accuracy of the technique is demonstrated by comparing its predictions to those of a full diurnal simulation; typically, the precision is better than 10%. By contrast, it is shown that the use of some other well-known computational schemes can result in significantly larger predictive errors.

Turco, R. P.↗

Neutral cometary atmospheres. I - An average random walk model for photodissociation in comets

A method for constructing physically realistic photochemical models, taking into account the isotropic ejection of dissociated molecular fragments as well as radiation pressure acceleration, has been developed using Monte Carlo techniques. The effect of the isotropic ejection, as opposed to the radial motion arbitrarily assumed in Haser's model, is adequately described by a simple average random walk model. It is shown that measured radial (Haser) scale lengths are in fact only lower limits to a range of possible true scale lengths for a given brightness profile, which explains the current discrepancies between observed scale lengths and those predicted by photochemistry.

Combi, M. R.↗