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49 records · Page 3

Development of an early warning system of crop moisture conditions using passive microwave

Emissivities were calculated from the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) over 25 km grid cells for the southern Great Plains includin the western two-thirds of Kansas and Oklahoma and northwest Texas. These emissivities, normalized for seasonal temperature changes, were in excellent agreement with theory and measurements made from aircraft and truck sensors at the 1.55 cm wavelength of ESMR. These emissivities were related to crop moisture conditions of the winter wheat in the major wheat producing counties of the three states. High correlations were noted between emissitivity and an antecedent precipitation index (API) used to infer soil moisture for periods when the soils were essentially bare. The emissivities from ESMR were related through API and actual crop condition reports to progress of fall planting, adequacy of crop moisture for stand establishment, and periods of excessive moisture that necessitated replanting. Periods of prolonged frozen soil in the winter were observable at several grid points. The average emissivities of the canopy/soil surface during the maximum canopy development times in the spring showed a good agreement with moisture stress inferred from rainfall and yield data.

Mcfarland, M. J.↗

Quantifying spatial and temporal variabilities of microwave brightness temperature over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Spatial and temporal variabilities of microwave brightness temperature over the U.S. Southern Great Plains are quantified in terms of vegetation and soil wetness. The brightness temperatures (TB) are the daytime observations from April to October for five years (1979 to 1983) obtained by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer at 6.6 GHz frequency, horizontal polarization. The spatial and temporal variabilities of vegetation are assessed using visible and near-infrared observations by the NOAA-7 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), while an Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) model is used for soil wetness. The API model was able to account for more than 50 percent of the observed variability in TB, although linear correlations between TB and API were generally significant at the 1 percent level. The slope of the linear regression between TB and API is found to correlate linearly with an index for vegetation density derived from AVHRR data.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

Role of zircon in tracing crustal growth and recycling

Single crystal ion probe ages of zircons is discussed, which allow much better time resolution compared to other geochronological methods, although the technique is not without problems. Rocks from two areas that contain composite zircon populations, including true magmatic zircons as well as a variety of xenocrystic types are described. It is often difficult to distinguish these; xenocrystic zircons, for example, cannot always be identified on the basis of morphology alone. Additional evidence is needed before making age interpretations. Evidence is also presented of zircon growth long after the original time of crystallization, in some cases apparently at temperatures less than 300 C. The spectacular discovery of 4.1 to 4.2 Ga detrital zircons in metaquartzites from the Mount Narryer area of Western Australia is described. Similar zircons with ages as old as 4276 Ma have been found in the nearby Jack Hills area. The source areas or parent lithologies of these zircons have not yet been determined, but the author expects that they may be unrecognized or buried antecedents of the K rich Narryer gneisses. U or Th concentrations of zircon cannot be used to discriminate between felsic and mafic source rocks.

Compston, W.↗

Snowmelt Runoff Model in Japan

The preliminary Japanese snowmelt runoff model was modified so that all the input variables arc of the antecedent days and the inflow of the previous day is taken into account. A few LANDSAT images obtained in the past were effectively used to verify and modify the depletion curve induced from the snow water equivalent distribution at maximum stage and the accumulated degree days at one representative point selected in the basin. Together with the depletion curve, the relationship between the basin ide daily snowmelt amount and the air temperature at the point above are exhibited homograph form for the convenience of the model user. The runoff forecasting procedure is summarized.

Ishihara, K.↗

Case studies using GOES infrared data and a planetary boundary layer model to infer regional scale variations in soil moisture

Modeled temperature data from a one-dimensional, time-dependent, initial value, planetary boundary layer model for 16 separate model runs with varying initial values of moisture availability are applied, by the use of a regression equation, to longwave infrared GOES satellite data to infer moisture availability over a regional area in the central U.S. This was done for several days during the summers of 1978 and 1980 where a large gradient in the antecedent precipitation index (API) represented the boundary between a drought area and a region of near normal precipitation. Correlations between satellite derived moisture availability and API were found to exist. Errors from the presence of clouds, water vapor and other spatial inhomogeneities made the use of the measurement for anything except the relative degree of moisture availability dubious.

Rose, F. G.↗

Multi-Satellite Estimates of Land-Surface Properties for Determination of Energy and Water Budgets

Using the WETNET database, existing methods for the estimation of surface wetness from SSM/I data have been assessed and further developed. A physical-statistical method for optimal estimation of daily surface heat flux and Bowen ratio on the mesoscale has been developed and tested. This method is based on observations of daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL) growth from operational ravansonde and daytime land-surface temperature amplitude from Geostationary Operational Environmental (GOES) satellites. The mesoscale patterns of these heat fluxes have been compared with an AVHRR-based vegetation index and surface wetness (separately estimated from SSM/I and in situ observations). Cases of the 1988 Midwest drought and a surface/atmosphere moisture gradient (dry-line) in the southern Plains were studied. The analyses revealed significant variations in sensible heat flux (S(sub 0), and Bowen ratio, B(sub 0)) associated with vegetation cover and antecedent precipitation. Relationships for surface heat flux (and Bowen ratio) from antecedent precipitation and vegetation index have been developed and compared to other findings. Results from this project are reported in the following reviewed literature.

Menzel, W. Paul↗

The Early History of the Quark-Gluon Plasma

We present the historical antecedents to the field of relativistic heavy ion physics, beginning with early attempts to model the strong interaction and ending with the endorsement of a relativistic heavy ion collider in the 1983 U.S. Long-Range Plan for Nuclear Science. Particular attention is paid to two major themes: 1) A program to study high density states of nuclear matter emerging from the 1974 Bear Mountain conference and 2) Efforts to understand the predictions of QCD for matter at high densities and/or temperatures.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Predictability of Malaria Transmission Intensity in the Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, Using Land Surface Climatology and Autoregressive Analysis

There has been increasing effort in recent years to employ satellite remotely sensed data to identify and map vector habitat and malaria transmission risk in data sparse environments. In the current investigation, available satellite and other land surface climatology data products are employed in short-term forecasting of infection rates in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, using a multivariate autoregressive approach. The climatology variables include precipitation, air temperature and other land surface states computed by the Off-line Land-Surface Global Assimilation System (OLGA) including soil moisture and surface evaporation. Satellite data products include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and other forcing data used in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) model. Predictions are compared to long- term monthly records of clinical and microscopic diagnoses. The approach addresses the high degree of short-term autocorrelation in the disease and weather time series. The resulting model is able to predict 11 of the 13 months that were classified as high risk during the validation period, indicating the utility of applying antecedent climatic variables to the prediction of malaria incidence for the Mpumalanga Province.

Grass, David↗

Alternative Approaches to Land Initialization for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

The seasonal prediction system of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to generate ensembles of summer forecasts utilizing realistic soil moisture initialization. To derive the realistic land states, we drive offline the system's land model with realistic meteorological forcing over the period 1979-1993 (in cooperation with the Global Land Data Assimilation System project at GSFC) and then extract the state variables' values on the chosen forecast start dates. A parallel series of forecast ensembles is performed with a random (though climatologically consistent) set of land initial conditions; by comparing the two sets of ensembles, we can isolate the impact of land initialization on forecast skill from that of the imposed SSTs. The base initialization experiment is supplemented with several forecast ensembles that use alternative initialization techniques. One ensemble addresses the impact of minimizing climate drift in the system through the scaling of the initial conditions, and another is designed to isolate the importance of the precipitation signal from that of all other signals in the antecedent offline forcing. A third ensemble includes a more realistic initialization of the atmosphere along with the land initialization. The impact of each variation on forecast skill is quantified.

Koster, Randal↗

The Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer (HyTES): Preliminary Results

The Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer (HyTES) is being developed as part of the risk reduction activities associated with the Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI). HyspIRI is one of the Tier 2 Decadal Survey Missions. HyTES will provide information on how to place the filters on the HyspIRI Thermal Infrared Instrument (TIR) as well as provide antecedent science data. The pushbroom design has 512 spatial pixels over a 50-degree field of view and 256 spectral channels between 7.5 micrometers to 12 micrometers. HyTES includes many key enabling state-of-the-art technologies including a high performance convex diffraction grating, a quantum well infrared photodetector (QWIP) focal plane array, and a compact Dyson-inspired optical design. The Dyson optical design allows for a very compact and optically fast system (F/1.6). It also minimizes cooling requirements due to the fact it has a single monolithic prism-like grating design which allows baffling for stray light suppression. The monolithic configuration eases mechanical tolerancing requirements which are a concern since the complete optical assembly is operated at cryogenic temperatures ((is) approximately 100K). The QWIP allows for optimum spatial and spectral uniformity and provides adequate responsivity or D-star to allow 200mK noise equivalent temperature difference (NEDT) operation across the LWIR passband. Assembly of the system is nearly complete. After completion, alignment results will be presented which show low keystone and smile distortion. This is required to minimize spatial-spectral mixing between adjacent spectral channels and spatial positions. Predictions show the system will have adequate signal to noise for laboratory calibration targets.

Moon Mineralogical Mapper (M3).↗

The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\V plumes were associated with most of the \vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted rainfall amounts than when PW plumes occurred by themselves (i.e.. without the presence of 6.7 micron water vapor plumes). Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) meteorologists use the 6.7 micron water and P\V products for their QPE's (interactive Flash Flood Analyzer (IFFA) and Auto-Estimator precipitation estimates), Outlooks, and heavy precipitation briefings with the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center/National Center for Environmental Prediction.

Scofield, Rod↗

A Double Bootstrap Approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to Evaluate Response Uncertainty

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.

Dendroclimatology↗

Research support of the WETNET Program

This study examines various aspects of the Microwave Vegetation Index (MVI). MVI is a derived signal created by differencing the spectral response of the 37 GHz horizontally and vertically polarized passive microwave signals. The microwave signal employed to derive this index is thought to be primarily influenced by vegetation structure, vegetation growth, standing water, and precipitation. The state of California is the study site for this research. Imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) is used for the creation of MVI datasets analyzed in this research. The object of this research is to determine whether MVI corresponds with some quantifiable vegetation parameter (such as vegetation density) or whether the index is more affected by known biogeophysical parameters such antecedent precipitation. A secondary question associated with the above is whether the vegetation attributes that MVI is employed to determine can be more easily and accurately evaluated by other remote sensing means. An important associated question to be addressed in the study is the effect of different multi-temporal composting techniques on the derived MVI dataset. This work advances our understanding of the fundamental nature of MVI by studying vegetation as a mixture of structural types, such as forest and grassland. The study further advances our understanding by creating multitemporal precipitation datasets to compare the affects of precipitation upon MVI. This work will help to lay the groundwork for the use of passive microwave spectral information either as an adjunct to visible and near infrared imagery in areas where that is feasible or for the use of passive microwave alone in areas of moderate cloud coverage. In this research, an MVI dataset, spanning the period February 15, 1989 through April 25, 1990, has been created using National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) supplied brightness temperature data. Information from the DMSP satellite 37 GHz wavelength SSM/I sensor in both horizontal and vertical polarization has been processed using the MVI algorithm. In conjunction with the MVI algorithm a multitemporal compositing technique was used to create datasets that correspond to 14 day periods. In this technical report, Section Two contains background information on the State of California and the three MVI study sites. Section Three describes the methods used to create the MVI and independent variables datasets. Section Four presents the results of the experiment. Section Five summarizes and concludes the work.

Estes, John E.↗