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Preconditioned least‐squares Petrov–Galerkin reduced order models

Abstract In this article, we introduce a methodology for improving the accuracy and efficiency of reduced order models (ROMs) constructed using the least‐squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG) projection method through the introduction of preconditioning. Unlike prior related work, which focuses on preconditioning the linear systems arising within the ROM numerical solution procedure to improve linear solver performance, our approach leverages a preconditioning matrix directly within the minimization problem underlying the LSPG formulation. Applying preconditioning in this way has the potential to improve ROM accuracy for several reasons. First, preconditioning the LSPG formulation changes the norm defining the residual minimization, which can improve the residual‐based stability constant bounding the ROM solution's error. The incorporation of a preconditioner into the LSPG formulation can have the additional effect of scaling the components of the residual being minimized to make them roughly of the same magnitude, which can be beneficial when applying the LSPG method to problems with disparate scales (e.g., dimensional equations, multi‐physics problems). Importantly, we demonstrate that an “ideal preconditioned” LSPG ROM (a ROM in which the preconditioner is the inverse of the Jacobian of its corresponding full order model) emulates projection of the full order model solution increment onto the reduced basis. This quantity defines a lower bound on the error of a ROM solution for a given reduced basis. By designing preconditioners that approximate the Jacobian inverse—as is common in designing preconditioners for solving linear systems—it is possible to obtain a ROM whose error approaches this lower bound. The proposed approach is evaluated on several mechanical and thermo‐mechanical problems implemented within the Albany HPC code and run in the predictive regime, with prediction across material parameter space. We demonstrate numerically that the introduction of simple Jacobi, Gauss‐Seidel, and ILU preconditioners into the proper orthogonal decomposition/LSPG formulation reduces significantly the ROM solution error, the reduced Jacobian condition number, the number of nonlinear iterations required to reach convergence, and the wall time (thereby improving efficiency). Moreover, our numerical results reveal that the introduction of preconditioning can deliver a robust and accurate solution for test cases in which the unpreconditioned LSPG method fails to converge.

Lindsay, Payton↗

Uniformity and volume-representativity of consecutive submillimetre wafers of shale for SANS and USANS investigations

(Ultra) Small Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS/USANS) is a non-destructive technique suitable for characterization of porous structures from nano- to micro-pore size (1 nm to 20 μm), which has been widely used to characterize accessible and inaccessible porosity in tight unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g., shales). Here, in this study, SANS and USANS are used to examine the degree of nano- to micropore uniformity of the rock body on sub-millimetre to centimetre scale. This study presents a test of the hypothesis of volume representativity of pore structure information measured by SANS and USANS for shale wafers (0.22–1 mm) cut from six North American unconventional shale cores of different maturities (New Albany Shale and Marcellus Shale). Experimental reproducibility of USANS is further investigated for two wafers measured using various acquisition times. All samples show that fluctuations of the relative intensity generally decrease from the USANS Q-range (pore size from around 200 nm to 20 μm) to most of the SANS Q-range (pore size from around 5 nm to 700 nm), and peaks in the SANS large-Q region (for pores smaller than about 5 nm). There is a positive correlation between the spatial fluctuation of the relative SANS intensity and the scattering power of shales. In addition, the scattering intensity and its fluctuations is larger for the less mature shale cores. Shale is known to be highly heterogenous and the hypothesis of uniformity does not apply at sub-millimetre scale even for samples that appear homogeneous at visual inspection. This study presents an approach to minimise the variation through sample selection, data interpretation methodology and instrumental reproducibility tests. The best values of the microstructural spatial uniformity for the apparently homogeneous sections of a core (i.e., the SANS and USANS intensity variation) is less than ±10%.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Methane generation from low-maturity coals and shale source rocks at low temperatures (80–120 °C) over 14–38 months

This study contributes long-term (14 to 38 months) experimental evidence for geocatalytically mediated methanogenesis in immature to early mature shale and coal source rocks at temperatures from 80 to 120 °C. Borosilicate glass tubes with pre-outgassed coal and shale source rock chips and water were sealed under vacuum, sterilized, heated isothermally, and finally opened in connection with a vacuum line where headspace gases methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) were collected. The possibility of admitting pre-existing CH 4 from closed pores into product gases during heating experiments was evaluated by comparative ball milling of original and heated rock chips, followed by quantitation of released gases with a novel closed-circuit laser-based SARAD RTM2200 gas detector system with sub-µmol sensitivity. The yields of produced CH 4 from individual source rocks were corrected by subtracting the amounts of pre-existing CH 4 from formerly closed pores in original source rocks that had leaked during long-term heating. Different shales and coals express contrasting propensities to geocatalytically generate CH 4 and CO 2 , with CH 4 yields ranging from 0.1 to 5.5 µmol g-1 total organic carbon (TOC). CH 4 yields from two petrographically different samples of Springfield Coal with comparable thermal maturity suggest that liptinite expresses a far higher propensity for methanogenesis, but liberates less CO 2 than vitrinite. Shale from the Second White Specks Formation generated approximately 10 times more CH 4 than New Albany Shale per g of TOC, further suggesting complex controls on CH 4 generation during catalytic methanogenesis. Higher temperature can enhance the activities of catalytic methanogenesis. Here, the extrapolation of laboratory-based reaction rates to natural conditions in organic-rich buried sediments suggests that geocatalytic methanogenesis can be fast enough in some source rocks to generate economically sizeable gas plays from immature to early mature source rocks over geologic time.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Controls on reservoir properties in organic-matter-rich shales: Insights from MICP analysis

Mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP) analysis was used to study organic-matter-rich Devonian shales varying in maturity from marginally mature to postmature to discuss controls on drainage and imbibition in shale reservoirs. Six samples come from the New Albany Shale; their total organic carbon (TOC) ranged from 3.3–8.4 % and vitrinite reflectance (R o ) from 0.54–1.42 %. One Marcellus Shale sample with R o 2.50 % was used to extend the maturity range to the advanced dry gas window. Three coal samples of varying rank were also included for comparison. Porosity of the shales ranges from 1.5–5.0 %, and MICP-derived permeability ranges from 0.17–9.9 mD. Injection capillary pressure curves have a range of entry pressures from 0.055 to0.421 MPa, and no relationship of entry pressure with maturity was revealed. Maturity, however, has an influence on pore size distribution, with the higher-maturity samples having significantly lower volumes of pores with throats less than 10 nm in diameter. Withdrawal capillary pressure curves document a wide range of withdrawal efficiencies from 55 % to almost 100 %, and pores having throats between 3–50 nm in diameter play a major role in the ability of mercury to be released from the pore system. The obtained data provide valuable information about shale properties and their behavior not only in the air-mercury system but also under reservoir conditions.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Exposure, health effects, sensing, and remediation of the emerging PFAS contaminants – Scientific challenges and potential research directions

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) make up a large group of persistent anthropogenic chemicals which are difficult to degrade and/or destroy. PFAS are an emerging class of contaminants, but little is known about the long-term health effects related to exposure. In addition, technologies to identify levels of contamination in the environment and to remediate contaminated sites are currently inadequate. In this opinion-type discussion paper, a team of researchers from the University of Connecticut and the University at Albany discuss the scientific challenges in their specific but intertwined PFAS research areas, including rapid and low-cost detection, energy-saving remediation, the role of T helper cells in immunotoxicity, and the biochemical and molecular effects of PFAS among community residents with measurable PFAS concentrations. Potential research directions that may be employed to address those challenges and improve the understanding of sensing, remediation, exposure to, and health effects of PFAS are then presented. Here, we hope our account of emerging problems related to PFAS contamination will encourage a broad range of scientific experts to bring these research initiatives addressing PFAS into play on a national scale.

Challenges and research directions↗

Receiver willingness to participate in off-hour service programs

Service trips, a frequently overlooked segment of urban traffic, represent a disproportionately large share of the negative impacts associated with commercial activity. The reason is that although service trips are less frequent than freight trips, they often take longer and thus occupy a significant share of commercial parking. Demand management programs seeking to move service trips off-hours can potentially reduce congestion and emissions but they have been understudied. Here, this paper describes research conducted to investigate receivers’ willingness to participate in off-hour programs for planned service activity. The research reported in this paper analyzes results from a survey of 189 business establishments in New York City and the Capital Region in New York State using descriptive analyses of the data, and by estimating a discrete choice model to gain insight into how business characteristics influence willingness to participate in off-hour services. To assess the impacts of a hypothetical off-hour services program, the authors applied the discrete choice model, together with service trip attraction models, to quantify the hours of daytime parking that could be eliminated by the proposed program in certain ZIP Codes in New York City and the Albany area. The research conducted led to the identification of numerous policy implications that will help policymakers understand and maximize the potential benefits of implementing off-hour service programs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.0

First release of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. The atmosphere component remains EAM. Major changes since version 1 include: all column-physics parameterizations are computed on a separate grid that has approximately half the number of points of the dynamics grid, a new nonhydrostatic dynamical core (running in hydrostatic mode) with semi-Lagrangian tracer transport, CLUBB updated from v1 to v2, a new convective trigger (dCAPE/ULL) based on the dynamic Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) (dCAPE) and the Unrestricted Launch Level (ULL) concepts is used in ZM. minimum cloud droplet number changed, gravity wave drag energy conservation fixed and new tunings used, dust emission size distribution changed to emit more coarse dust particles The land component is still ELM. Major changes since version 1 include: using SNICAR-AD for radiation in snow to match the sea-ice model and fixing bugs in snow compaction and water state calculation. The ocean component remains MPAS-ocean. Major change since version 1 include: Redi isopycnal mixing has been updated, tested, and tuned in combination with the Gent-McWilliams parameterization, a sign error was fixed in the 3rd-order flux routines, the mesh used in low-resolution coupled cases was modified and the time steps adjusted, new regionally refined meshes were created, one focused on North America and another on the Southern Ocean, including ice shelf cavities. The sea-ice component remains MPAS-seaice. Major changes since version 1 include: A new heat- and freshwater-conserving coupling of frazil ice, turning off of SSH filtering, addition of SNICAR-AD and snow grain aging. The land-ice component remains MPAS-Albany-landIce (MALI) and is a static ice sheet. There is more out-of-the-box support for cryosphere configurations including the new regionally refined configuration around Antarctica with ice shelf cavities. The river model is MOSART. The half-degree river mesh was redone so it no longer treats Black and Caspian seas as ocean. The coupler remains cpl7/MCT. Major changes since version 1 include handling of ice shelf melt fluxes (heat / freshwater exchange with the ocean), and data icebergs. All components allow regional refinement of their meshes and two separate example of refinement, one in and around North America and one around Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, are provided.

E3SM Project, DOE↗

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.1.0

First release of version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. [ATM] The atmosphere component remains EAM. There are no major changes in the default configuration since 2.0. New features include: A semi-lagrangian tracer transport for theta-l dycore, a new algorithm for finding the tropopause, new RRM mesh configurations. Add and update SSP370 and SSP585 cases. Restore the FIDEAL case. [LAND] The land component is ELM. There are no major changes in the default configuration since 2.0. Several option features have been added including: implementation of topography-based subgrid structure (topounits) and accompanying parameterizations and atmospheric forcing downscaling methods; a new plant hydraulics scheme; two-way land-river hydrological coupling through the infiltration of floodplain water; an implementation of perennial crops; updates to the SNICAR-AD snow radiative transfer model; and implementation of soil erosion and sediment yield in ELM-Erosion. Each of these new changes is modular in design and can be turned on or off as the user specifies; they are currently being tested in different “BGC” configurations. [OCEAN] The ocean component remains MPAS-Ocean. Major change since version 2.0 include the addition of the Fox-Kemper et al. 2011 parameterization for submesocale eddies, a correction for barotropic thickness consistency that reduces divergence noise, and the addition of an ocean carbon conservation analysis member. [SEAICE] The sea-ice component remains MPAS-Seaice. Major changes since version 2.0 include: A correction to how shortwave parameters are interpolated in the snicar-ad 5-band radiation scheme, the addition of a sea ice carbon conservation analysis member, updates to the default sea ice biogeochemistry namelist parameters to be consistent with version 2.0 improvements to nitrogen cycling and a correction in the ice-ocean dissolved organic nitrogen coupling. [LAND ICE] The land-ice component remains MPAS-Albany-landIce (MALI). Major changes since 2.0 include an update to the MALI version and the Greenland mesh.[RIVER] The river model is MOSART. There are no major changes in the default configuration since 2.0. A major new optional feature is two-way river-ocean hydrological coupling between MOSART and MPAS-O. This change can be turned on or off as the user specifies, and is being tested in different configurations. [COUPLER] The coupler remains cpl7/MCT. Major changes since version 2.0 include: Carbon budget calculated when heat/water budgets active. Fix a bug in land-atm fluxes for tri-grid configurations. [OTHER] a small bug in the zenith angle calculation was fixed in the data models.

ECP↗

Arctic Coastal Erosion: Modeling and Experimentation

Increasing Arctic coastal erosion rates have put critical infrastructure and native communities at risk while also mobilizing ancient organic carbon into modern carbon cycles. Although the Arctic comprises one-third of the global coastline and has some of the fastest eroding coasts, current tools for quantifying permafrost erosion are unable to explain the episodic, storm-driven erosion events. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, a coupling framework unites the mechanical and thermal aspects of erosion. 3D stress/strain fields develop in response to a plasticity model of the permafrost that is controlled by the frozen water content determined by modeling 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase change. This modeling approach enables failure from any allowable deformation (block failure, slumping, etc.). Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Combined, this work offers the most comprehensive and physically grounded treatment of Arctic coastal erosion available in the literature. The ACE model and experimental results can be used to inform scientific understanding of coastal erosion processes, contribute to estimates of geochemical and sediment land-to-ocean fluxes, and facilitate infrastructure susceptibility assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Persistent, extensive channelized drainage modeled beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica

Abstract. Subglacial hydrology is a leading control on basal friction and the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets. At low discharge, subglacial water flows through high-pressure, sheet-like systems that lead to low effective pressures. However, at high discharge, subglacial water melts the overlying ice into localized channels that efficiently remove water from the bed, thereby increasing effective pressure and basal friction. Recent observations suggest channelized subglacial flow exists beneath Thwaites Glacier, yet it remains unclear if stable channelization is feasible in West Antarctica, where surface melting is nonexistent and water at the bed is limited. Here, we use the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model to run a suite of over 130 subglacial hydrology simulations of Thwaites Glacier across a wide range of physical parameter choices to assess the likelihood of channelization. We then narrow our range of viable simulations by comparing modeled water thicknesses to previously observed radar specularity content, which indicates flat, spatially extensive water bodies at the bed. In all of our data-compatible simulations, stable channels reliably form within 100–200 km of the grounding line and reach individual discharge rates of 35–110 m3 s−1 at the ice–ocean boundary. While only one to two channels typically form across the 200 km width of the glacier in our simulations, their high efficiency drains water across the entire lateral extent of the glacier. We posit the large catchment size of Thwaites Glacier, its funnel-like geometry, and high basal melt rates together accumulate enough water to form stable channels. No simulations resembled observed specularity content when channelization was disabled. Our results suggest channelized subglacial hydrology has two consequences for Thwaites Glacier dynamics: (i) amplifying submarine melting of the terminus and ice shelf while (ii) simultaneously raising effective pressure within 100 km of the grounding line and increasing basal friction. The distribution of effective pressure implied from our modeling differs from parameterizations typically used in large-scale ice sheet models, suggesting the development of more process-based parameterizations may be necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

To evaluate ERTS-1 data for the usefulness as a geological sensor in the diverse geological terranes of New York State

The author has identified the following significant results. The straight NNE-trending escarpment that marks the easternmost extent of the Catskill Mountains appears, from ERTS-1 imagery (1079-15124) to be related to a set of parallel topographic lineaments which occur over a distance of 40 km to the west. The October 11 imagery of the Adirondacks (1080-15174) displays the pre-Paleozoic erosion surface along the western and northern margin of the Adirondack Mountains dome. The northern portion of this paleoplain is terminated to the southeast by an escarpment following an ENE topographic linear to produce a pseudo-cuesta. The snow covered terrain in the Mohawk Valley between Albany and Rome (1170-15182 and 1169-15123) displays with sculptural clarity a drumlin field having a cloud-free area of about 2600 sq km; glacial flow directions can be plotted readily because the stoss and lee sides of the drumlins can be distinguished. In the imagery of summer and fall, agricultural patterns obscured the detail which is visible in the winter imagery.

Isachsen, Y. W.↗

Polarimetric observations of Comet Kohoutek (1973f)

Radio, optical, and visual observations were made of Comet Kohoutek (1973f) using facilities of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) and of the Hawaii Night Sky Observatory, State University of New York at Albany (SUNYA). Transit observations were made using the NRAO 300 ft radio telescope on six consecutive days beginning November 24, 1973. Observations were carried out in the continuum at 11 cm using the 4-feed system at different position angles. The data were recorded on magnetic tape and were computer reduced. Results were negative, with an rms error of 62 milli flux units, giving an upper limit of 180 mfu for the 11 cm continuum emission from the Comet. This relatively high detection limit resulted from a combination of interference and bad weather that affected these pre-perihelion observations. No observations could be scheduled near or after perihelion.

Weinberg, J. L.↗

Water survey of Canada: Application for use of ERTS-A for retransmission of water resources data

The author has identified the following significant results. The fact that water resources data can be retransmitted from remote areas of Canada by polar orbiting spacecraft to users in population centers on a near real time basis reliably, accurately, and at relative low cost continues to be demonstrated. Over 60,000 transmissions from the nine data collection platforms installed at Water Survey of Canada gauging stations have been received. The stage and ice-out data retransmitted via ERTS-1 have been plotted on a chart record produced by a water stage servo-manometer installed on the Albany River. The stage increased smoothly until shortly after noon on May 19, 1974. During this time the indicator showed that the ice surface was intact. The stage then dropped sharply and the indicator read that the ice was out. The erratic chart trace after that was consistent with the assumption that the ice surface had broken up and that some short duration jams of broken ice were occurring.

Halliday, R. A.↗

Annoyance by aircraft noise and fear of overflying aircraft in relation to attitudes toward the environment and community

It has been suggested that expressions of annoyance attributable to aircraft noise may reflect in part fear of aircraft overflights and possible crashes. If this is true, then residents of areas where crashes have occurred should express more annoyance. To test this hypothesis, 50 residents of an Albany, New York area where an aircraft crash producing fatalities recently occurred and 50 residents of a comparable nearby area without such a history, were asked to respond to a 'Quality of Life Questionnaire.' Among the items were some designed to test annoyance by noise and fear of aircraft overflights. It was predicted that those in the crash area would express more fear and would more often identify aircraft as a noise source. These hypotheses were sustained. A near-replication was carried out in Louisville, Kentucky; results were much the same. Analyses indicated that for the crash-area groups, there was associating of aircraft fear and noise annoyance responses; this was true to an apparently lesser extent for non-crash groups. The greater annoyance of crash groups by aircraft community noise apparently does not carry over to situations in which aircraft noise is assessed in the laboratory.

Loeb, M.↗