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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of Sea Breeze Circulations on boundary layer aerosols in the southern coastal Texas region

The Sea Breeze Circulation (SBC) influences atmospheric processes at multiple scales in coastal regions. Understanding how SBCs impact the aerosol number budget and aerosol–cloud interaction processes is essential. This study investigates sea breeze–aerosol interactions (SAIs) during 46 summertime SBC events using data from the TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign across urban (main) and rural (supplemental) coastal sites in southern Texas. Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations complement observations to explore spatio-temporal meteorological controls on boundary layer aerosols. During the summertime, Sea Breeze Fronts (SBF) penetrating inland transported cool, moist air over the land, introducing air masses with distinct properties compared to the preexisting continental air. These SAIs cause variability in number concentrations of up to a factor of two, with events typically lasting ∼ 5 h before returning to background conditions. SAI impact on aerosols varies with site proximity to water and the preceding sea breeze (SB) history, primarily affecting the marine-influenced accumulation mode. The main site, influenced by both Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, reflects a stronger marine influence. In contrast, a supplemental site, at a similar shoreline distance but exposed only to the Gulf of Mexico and typically upstream of the urban core, samples SB air that has traversed land and partially regained continental characteristics. Simulations show that the regional SAIs extend ∼ 50 km inland and reach up to the boundary layer height. SAIs further decrease cloud condensation nuclei relevant aerosol number concentrations in ∼ 20 % of events during SBF passage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole

There exists a warming deficit in sea surface temperatures (SST) over the subpolar North Atlantic in response to quadrupled CO 2 , referred to as the projected North Atlantic warming hole (WH). This study employs a partial coupling technique to accurately verify the relative roles of oceanic and atmospheric processes in the formation of the projected WH within an atmosphere-ocean coupled framework. By decomposing the SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic into two components: those induced by atmospheric processes (i.e., the atmosphere-forced component) and those driven by changes in ocean circulation (i.e., the ocean-driven component), we find that the projected WH is primarily driven by changes in ocean circulation, with almost no contribution from atmospheric processes. Specifically, the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) results in a cooling of SST in the WH region due to reduced northward ocean heat transport into this region. This study further quantifies the influence of a positive coupled feedback through surface heat flux (SHF) on the AMOC response under greenhouse gas forcing within this self-consistent framework. It is found that the AMOC slowdown leads to a negative SST anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic and subsequently a positive ocean-driven SHF anomaly, which in turn further weakens the AMOC. In conclusion, this positive feedback through the SHF contributes about 50% to the total AMOC slowdown in response to quadrupled CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent trends and variability of temperature and atmospheric water vapor over South Asia

This study examines the recent trends and variability of temperature and atmospheric water vapor over South Asia during the summer monsoon season from 1970 to 2022. We employ gridded reanalysis and observational datasets to assess the trends and variability in surface temperature and further investigate the associated physical processes. Our results show that the surface temperature over South Asia has increased by 0.5 °C per decade. Notably, we find a statistically significant major transition in the surface temperature series in 1995, such that 1970–1994 (1995–2022) is associated with anomalous cooling (anomalous warming). Since 1995, not only have the temporal variations in regional surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and clear-sky downward longwave radiation been synchronous at interannual scales, but their largest spatial variations have been located mainly over the same region. A diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals that the observed changes in water vapor convergence over South Asia are dominated by changes in mean circulation dynamics, while the change in thermodynamics is relatively small. The enhancement of the Somali low-level jet may contribute to increased water vapor in South Asia by modulating low-level circulations.

Atmospheric circulations↗
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Decadal Hybrid GCM Simulation Using Deep‐Learning‐Based Cloud and Convection Parameterization Generalized to a Warm Climate

A critical challenge for machine‐learning (ML) parameterization in global climate models (GCMs) is to achieve stable, accurate simulations under climates not seen during training. Previous studies have demonstrated promising offline performance and year‐long online stability in aquaplanet simulations but have encountered difficulties in real geography and under climate warming. Here we report that a GCM with real geography configuration using neural‐network‐based cloud and convection parameterization, trained exclusively with present‐day climate data, successfully performs a stable, decade‐long simulation of a warm climate with +4 K sea surface temperature (SST). The neural network (NN) is based on Han et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003508 ) with additional inputs. The simulation captures the global precipitation distribution, surface temperatures, vertical atmospheric structures, and extreme precipitation very well, closely matching simulations from both the superparameterized CAM (SPCAM) and the conventional CAM5 in the warm climate without accuracy degradation compared to those in the baseline climate. Moreover, it produces a climate response to +4 K SST in atmospheric thermodynamic states and circulations similar to those from SPCAM and CAM5. Prognostic ablation tests on NN input variables show that the NN without convective memory as input suffers from numerical instability, and the NN without considering radiative variables and land fraction as input, or with reduced training samples produce less accurate results. To our knowledge, this is the first time an ML parameterization successfully achieves online extrapolation to a warm climate without using additional warm‐climate data for training. It demonstrates the potential of ML‐driven parameterizations for credible long‐term climate projections.

Atmosphere model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsteady Land-Sea Breeze Circulations in the Presence of a Synoptic Pressure Forcing

Unsteady land-sea breezes (LSBs) that result from time-varying surface temperature contrasts Δθ(t) are explored in the presence of a constant synoptic pressure forcing, M g , oriented from sea to land (α = 0°) or land to sea (α = 180°). Large eddy simulations reveal the development of four distinctive regimes, depending on the joint interaction between M g , α, and Δθ(t) in modulating the fine-scale dynamics. Time lags, computed as the shifts that maximize correlation coefficients of the velocity between the unsteady and the corresponding steady scenarios at Δθ = Δθ max , are found to be significant and to extend 2 hr longer for α = 0° compared to α = 180°. These diurnal dynamics result in nonequilibrium conditions that are significantly affected by the flow history, and that behave differently over the two patches for the different α’s. Turbulence is found to be out of equilibrium with the mean flow, and the mean itself is found to be out of equilibrium with the thermal forcing. The sea surface heat flux is consistently more sensitive than its land counterpart to the time-varying external forcing Δθ(t), and more so for synoptic forcing from land to sea (α = 180°). Hence, although the land reaches equilibrium faster, the sea patch is found to exert a stronger control on the turbulence-mean flow equilibrium response. Finally, the vertical velocity profile at the shore and shore-normal velocity transects at the first grid level are shown to encode the multiscale regimes of the LSBs evolution and can thus be used to identify these regimes using k-means clustering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting the Role of Ocean Circulation Changes in Polar Ocean Heat Transport Anomalies under Global Warming

In response to greenhouse gas forcing, climate models predict that poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) weakens in the Southern Ocean but increases in the Arctic. The role of ocean circulation changes in this OHT response has been evaluated by decomposing OHT anomalies into a dynamic component (holding ocean temperature fixed while circulation evolves) and a thermodynamic component (holding ocean circulation fixed while temperature evolves). However, ocean temperature changes are themselves shaped by circulation changes through redistribution of the existing heat reservoir and subsequent effects on air–sea heat fluxes. The thermodynamic component can therefore be influenced by circulation changes, making the standard thermodynamic–dynamic decomposition incomplete for isolating the role of circulation changes in OHT anomalies. To address this issue, we use a passive–active decomposition to assess the relative contributions of ocean circulation and passive ocean temperature changes to polar OHT anomalies in a fully coupled climate model. Passive temperature changes are defined as those thermally forced by the atmosphere in the absence of circulation changes. In this passive–active decomposition, an advective term involving both circulation and passive temperature changes remains ambiguous—classifying it as active implies circulation changes dominate Southern Ocean OHT anomalies, whereas classifying it as passive implies temperature changes dominate. However, both interpretations imply that ocean circulation changes have a much weaker effect on polar OHT anomalies than inferred from the standard decomposition. In conclusion, these results help reconcile conclusions from studies using the standard decomposition with those using passive tracer methods to assess the role of circulation changes in polar OHT anomalies.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Land-Surface Temperature Transitions at the Bankhead National Forest (LASTT-BNF) Field Campaign Report

Land surface types that are common in the Southeast United States (e.g., forests, agriculture, urban) can play key roles in the regulation of surface-atmosphere energy exchange and boundary-layer evolution in the region (Hinkle et al. 2024). Heterogeneity in these land-surface types and associated emissivities can drive strong transitions in land surface temperature (LST), which is an important component of the surface energy balance. Within the forested canopy surrounding the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s field deployment at the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) in Alabama main site (M1) (Kuang et al. 2026), the different components of the vegetation and ground surface can create strong gradients in surface temperature that can influence the canopy thermal environment and vegetative function (e.g., stress, transpiration), both of which can have important, yet poorly characterized, controls on lower atmospheric processes (e.g., thermal turbulence, secondary circulations).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Dependence of Simulated Convection on Domain Size in CRMs

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results.

CRM↗
DOE OSTI2025

A More La Niña–Like Response to Radiative Forcing after Flux Adjustment in CESM2

Abstract In response to greenhouse gas forcing, most coupled global climate models project the tropical Pacific SST trend toward an “El Niño–like” state, with a reduced zonal SST gradient and a weakened Walker circulation. However, observations over the last five decades reveal a trend toward a more “La Niña–like” state with a strengthening zonal SST gradient. Recent research indicates that the identified trend differences are unlikely to be entirely due to internal variability and probably result, at least in part, from systematic model biases. In this study, Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), is used to explore how mean-state biases within the model may influence its forced response to radiative forcing in the tropical Pacific. The results show that using flux adjustment to reduce the mean-state bias in CESM2 over the tropical regions results in a more La Niña–like trend pattern in the tropical Pacific, with a strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient and a relatively enhanced Walker circulation, as hypothesized to occur if the ocean thermostat mechanism is stronger than the atmospheric mechanisms which by themselves would weaken the Walker circulation. We also find that the historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal gradient is transient but persists into the near term in a high-emissions future warming scenario. These results suggest the potential of flux adjustment as a method for developing alternative projections that represent a wider range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, especially for a better understanding of regional patterns of climate risk in the near term.

Zhuo, Jing-Yi [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, C↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolution dependence of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer in global storm-resolving climate simulations

The current generation of state-of-the-art global climate models are being run at increasingly higher horizontal resolutions, with the goal of resolving organised deep convection explicitly. How a kilometre-scale resolution impacts the representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is, however, not well known. Using statistical analysis on global fields as well as high-frequency data at selected locations, produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model for the Next Generation Earth-system Models (nextGEMS) project, we investigate the horizontal resolution dependence of some boundary-layer processes. We find that a change in resolution from 9 to 2.8 km causes no substantial changes to boundary-layer properties and processes at most of the locations studied, although some global changes are detected that indicate circulation changes. Small changes to the boundary-layer depth and structure are found in the Tropics. The short simulation length and lack of data for optimal boundary-layer analysis limits the conclusions, especially in relation to the connection between the boundary layer and the atmosphere general circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative, Hydrologic, and Circulation Responses to Warming in Cess‐Potter Simulations Using the Global 3.25‐km SCREAM

Using the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km), a pair of 13-month Cess-Potter simulations are performed to quantify the radiative feedbacks and the hydrologic and circulation responses to warming. Large-scale aspects of SCREAM 3 km's top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, precipitation rates, and circulations are in good agreement with observations and reanalysis, with notable differences, including a drier lower free-troposphere in the Tropics, reduced precipitation and humidity over the Tropical West Pacific, and poleward shifted Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet. In response to warming, SCREAM 3 km predicts a total radiative feedback within the top 15% of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, which puts it substantially higher than the feedback reported by other kilometer-scale models. SCREAM 3 km's high radiative feedback stems from a strongly positive shortwave cloud feedback, most prominent over the mid- and high-latitudes. SCREAM 3 km's high precipitation response also puts it among the highest of CMIP models, whereas its circulation response is within the spread of CMIP models. An ensemble of five perturbed initial condition Cess-Potter simulations with a 12 km version of SCREAM (SCREAM 12 km) is performed to characterize uncertainty and resolution sensitivity. It suggests that the uncertainty from analyzing a pair of 1-year simulations is small compared to the inter-model spread in feedbacks and precipitation response. SCREAM 12 km also produces a strong precipitation response to warming but a much lower cloud feedback and total radiative feedback. The results from these experiments suggest that the spread in climate feedbacks will likely persist in the next generation of kilometer-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric and oceanic energy transport during North Atlantic freshening events: influences of moisture transport and hydrologic cycle feedbacks

Analogs of present-day rapid ice melt can be found in episodic discharges of icebergs that occurred during glacial periods called Heinrich events. This introduces excess meltwater into the North Atlantic and weakens the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (AMOC), triggering a hydrologic cycle–AMOC collapse feedback as the atmospheric energy transport compensates for reduced northward heat transport. Here we employ a novel series of 100-year North Atlantic “hosing” simulations to investigate atmospheric and oceanic energy transport response from freshwater forcing, focusing in particular on the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) within atmospheric energy transport. Importantly, we use an “overwriting” methodology that allow us to attribute AMOC weakening to added North Atlantic meltwater and subsequent hydrologic cycle responses, respectively. In contrast to far-reaching response of transient eddies, our results show a substantial increase in moisture convergence from ARs that is geographically constrained to the North Atlantic midlatitudes. Such AR changes nevertheless comprise an important component of net precipitation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector, with the amount being comparable to that from transient eddies over the subpolar Atlantic. Over the course of the century-long simulations, we demonstrate that hydrologic cycle responses to North Atlantic freshening and subsequent feedbacks, including those from ARs, account for approximately half of the simulated AMOC collapse. Furthermore, our work highlights the dynamics of atmospheric moisture transport response to North Atlantic freshening events and elucidates how intensifying moisture transport may accelerate AMOC collapse in the future.

Atmospheric Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Land‐Atmosphere Feedbacks in Midlatitude Wintertime Surface Temperature Variability

Accurately representing synoptic near-surface temperature variability is crucial to predict weather extremes, yet models remain biased. Existing studies primarily attribute wintertime midlatitude near-surface temperature variability to tropospheric large-scale advection, assuming minimal land influence. However, nudging the model's circulation toward observations yields little improvement in wintertime temperature variance over Northern Hemisphere land, suggesting that land-atmosphere interactions also warrant attention. We introduce a new scaling framework for temperature variance that incorporates local land-atmosphere feedbacks. Comparing our framework to the mixing length approach—which links temperature variance to the meridional temperature gradient and air parcel displacement (mixing length)—shows that land-atmosphere feedbacks are inherently embedded in the mixing length, a connection previously overlooked. Roles of land–atmosphere feedbacks are evaluated via model experiments with perturbed circulation, land, or both. We find that longwave radiative damping dominates temperature variance responses over meridional temperature gradient when both land and circulation are perturbed.

atmosheric science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic↗