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DOE OSTI2024

Applicability of 1D site response analysis to shallow sedimentary basins: A critical evaluation through physics-based 3D ground motion simulations

One-dimensional site response analysis (1D SRA) remains the standard practice in considering the effect of local soil deposits and predicting site-specific ground motions, although its range of applicability to realistic seismic wavefields is still in question. In this 1D approach, horizontal and vertical ground shaking are assumed to be induced by vertically propagating shear and compressional waves, respectively. A recent study based on analytical two-dimensional (2D) plane waves and simple point source earthquake simulations has shown two mechanistic limitations in this 1D modelling technique for general inclined seismic waves, that is, systematic over-prediction of the vertical motion and wave trapping in the 1D soil column. In this article, we evaluate in detail the applicability of this 1D modelling approach to realistic three-dimensional (3D) simulated seismic wavefields in shallow sedimentary basins. Linear-viscoelastic 1D SRA predictions using two types of input motions that are commonly used in practice—rock outcrop and in-column motions, are compared with the reference true site response results from 3D earthquake simulations in terms of various measures in the frequency and time domain. It is shown that the horizontal motion in the 3D seismic wavefield exhibits dominant shear wave propagation phenomenon, while the vertical motion is a combined effect of compressional and shear waves and can be over-predicted by the 1D approach when the incident seismic waves are inclined. Direct evidence of the wave refraction process that leads to the vertical motion over-prediction is provided. 1D SRA with in-column inputs can yield motions that have significantly longer duration compared to the true 3D site response solution due to trapped waves, casting in doubt the frequent need for increased soil damping in existing site studies to compensate for wave attenuation due to scattering alone. Sensitivity investigation on the increase of soil profile damping by a multiplier D mul shows D mul values compatible with those found in the literature for both horizontal and vertical motions. It is shown that the level of D mul optimized for a best match of the spectral acceleration is dependent on the characteristic of the input motion and a larger D mul is typically required for the vertical component. In contrast, 1D SRA with outcrop motions predicts motions with shorter significant duration due to its inability to capture the basin-edge generated surface waves. A suite of ground motion simulations was performed to assess the sensitivity of the observations to the basin geologic structure including the velocity gradient, rock-basin impedance contrast and basin depth. The analysis results show that the accuracy of the simplified 1D procedure is dependent on the wavefield composition of both the input motions and the true 3D site response solution. While the horizontal motions in shallow sedimentary basins can, to the first order, be reasonably captured by the simplified 1D approach, 1D SRA for the vertical component is in general not reliable and contributions from inclined shear waves should be accounted for in site-specific evaluation of the vertical design ground motion.

1D assumption↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kimberlina 1.2 CCUS Geophysical Models and Synthetic Data Sets

This synthetic multi-scale and multi-physics data set was produced in collaboration with teams at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Colorado School of Mines through the Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. Data are associated with the following publication: Alumbaugh, D., Gasperikova, E., Crandall, D., Commer, M., Feng, S., Harbert, W., Li, Y., Lin, Y., and Samarasinghe, S., “The Kimberlina Synthetic Geophysical Model and Data Set for CO2 Monitoring Investigations”, The Geoscience Data Journal, 2023, DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.191. The dataset uses the Kimberlina 1.2 CO2 reservoir flow model simulations based on a hypothetical CO2 storage site in California (Birkholzer et al., 2011; Wainwright et al., 2013). Geophysical properties models (P- and S-wave seismic velocities, saturated density, and electrical resistivity) were produced with an approach similar to that of Yang et al. (2019) and Gasperikova et al. (2022) for 100 Kimberlina 1.2 reservoir models. Links to individual resources are provided below: [CO2 Saturation Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-co2-saturation-models); Resistivity Models – [part 1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-1), [part 2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-2), and [part 3](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-3); [Vp Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vp-velocity-models); [Vs Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vs-velocity-models); [Density Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-density-models). The 3D distributions of geophysical properties for the 33 time stamps of the SIM001 model were used to generate synthetic seismic, gravity, and electromagnetic (EM) responses for 33 times between zero and 200 years. Synthetic surface seismic data were generated using 2D and 3D finite-difference codes that simulate the acoustic wave equation (Moczo et al., 2007). 2D data were simulated for six point-pressure sources along a 2D line with 10 m receiver spacing and a time spacing of 0.0005 s. 3D simulations were completed for 25 surface pressure sources using a source separation of 1 km in both the x and y directions and a time spacing of 0.001 s. Links to individual resources are provided below: [2D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-velocity-models) and [2D surface seismic data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-surface-seismic-data). [3D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-velocity-models), and 3D seismic data [year0](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year0), [year1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year1), [year2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year2), [year5](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year5), [year10](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year10), [year15](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year15), [year20](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year20), [year25](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year25), [year30](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year30), [year35](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year35), [year40](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year40), [year45](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year45), [year49](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year49), [year50](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year50), [year51](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year51), [year52](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year52), [year55](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year55), [year60](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year60), [year65](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year65), [year70](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year70), [year75](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year75), [year80](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year80), [year85](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year85), [year90](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year90), [year95](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year95), [year100](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year100), [year110](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year110), [year120](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year120), [year130](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year130), [year140](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year140), [year150](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year150), [year175](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year175), [year200](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year200). The Python scripts to read these models and data are provided [here](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-python-scripts). EM simulations used a borehole-to-surface survey configuration, with the source located near the reservoir level and receivers on the surface using the code developed by Commer and Newman (2008). Pseudo-2D data for the source at [2500 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz2500m) and [3025 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz3025m), used a 2D inline receiver configuration to simulate a response over 3D resistivity models. The [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-csem-data) contain electric fields generated by borehole sources at monitoring well locations and measured over a surface receiver grid. Vector gravity data, both on the surface and in boreholes, were simulated using a modeling code developed by Rim and Li (2015). The simulation scenarios were parallel to those used for the EM: [pseudo-2D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were calculated along the same lines and within the same boreholes, and [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were simulated over 3D models on the surface and in three monitoring wells. A series of [synthetic well logs](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-well-logs) of CO2 saturation, acoustic velocity, density, and induction resistivity in the injection well and three monitoring wells are also provided at 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the initiation of injection. These were constructed by combining the low-frequency trend of the geophysical models with the high-frequency variations of actual well logs collected in the Kimberlina 1 well that was drilled at the proposed site. Measurements of permeability and pore connectivity were made on cores of Vedder Sandstone, which forms the primary reservoir unit: [CT micro scans](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-ct-micro-scans-of-vedder-formation) and [Industrial CT Images](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-industrial-ct-images-vedder-formation). These measurements provide the range of scales in the otherwise synthetic data set to be as close to a real-world situation as possible. References: Birkholzer, J.T., Zhou, Q., Cortis, A. and Finsterle, S., 2011. A sensitivity study on regional pressure buildup from large-scale CO2 storage projects. Energy Procedia, 4, 4371-4378. Commer, M., and Newman, G.A., 2008. New advances in three-dimensional controlled-source electromagnetic inversion, Geophysical Journal International, 172, 513-535. Gasperikova, E., Appriou, D., Bonneville, A., Feng, Z., Huang, L., Gao, K., Yang, X., Daley, T., 2022, Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO2 storage plumes, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control, Volume 114, 103585, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103585. Moczo, P., J.O. Robertsson and L. Eisner, 2007, The finite-difference time-domain method for modeling of seismic wave propagation: Advances in geophysics, 48, 421-516. Rim, H., and Y. Li, 2015, Advantages of borehole vector gravity in density imaging, Geophysics, 80, G1-G13. Wainwright, H. M.; Finsterle, S.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T., 2013. Modeling the Performance of Large-Scale CO2 Storage Systems: A Comparison of Different Sensitivity Analysis Methods. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 17, 189205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.05.007, DOI: 10.18141/1603331. Yang, X., Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Wang, Z., Gao, K., Huang, L., Appriou, D., and Carroll, S.A., 2019. Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 90, 102803, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803.

CCUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanisms for Microseismicity Occurrence Due to CO 2 Injection at Decatur, Illinois: A Coupled Multiphase Flow and Geomechanics Perspective

Here, we numerically investigate the mechanisms that resulted in induced seismicity occurrence associated with CO 2 injection at the Illinois Basin–Decatur Project (IBDP). We build a geologically consistent model that honors key stratigraphic horizons and 3D fault surfaces interpreted using surface seismic data and microseismicity locations. We populate our model with reservoir and geomechanical properties estimated using well-log and core data. We then performed coupled multiphase flow and geomechanics modeling to investigate the impact of CO 2 injection on fault stability using the Coulomb failure criteria. We calibrate our flow model using measured reservoir pressure during the CO 2 injection phase. Our model results show that pore-pressure diffusion along faults connecting the injection interval to the basement is essential to explain the destabilization of the regions where microseismicity occurred, and that poroelastic stresses alone would result in stabilization of those regions. Slip tendency analysis indicates that, due to their orientations with respect to the maximum horizontal stress direction, the faults where the microseismicity occurred were very close to failure prior to injection. These model results highlight the importance of accurate subsurface fault characterization for CO 2 sequestration operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparative study on deep learning models for condition monitoring of advanced reactor piping systems

Advanced nuclear reactors offer innovative applications due to their portability, reliability, resiliency, and high capacity factors. To operate them on a wider scale, reducing maintenance life-cycle costs while ensuring their integrity is essential. Autonomous operations in advanced nuclear reactors using augmented Digital Twin (DT) technology can serve as a cost-effective solution by increasing awareness about the system’s health. A key component of nuclear DT frameworks is the condition monitoring of safety systems, such as piping-equipment systems, which involves acquiring and monitoring the plant’s sensor data. Here, this research proposes a condition monitoring methodology utilizing deep learning algorithms, such as multilayer perceptions (MLP) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), to detect degradation and its severity in nuclear piping-equipment systems. Sensor signals are processed to obtain the power spectral density and the Short-Time Fourier transform, and feature extraction methodologies are proposed to develop degradation-sensitive data repositories. The performance of MLP, one-dimensional (1D) CNN, and 2D CNN within the proposed condition monitoring framework is compared using a finite element model of a 3D piping system subjected to seismic loads as the application case study. Various approaches, such as dropout, k-Fold validation, regularization, and early stopping of training the network, are investigated to avoid overfitting the models to the input sensor data. The predictive capability and computational capacity of the deep learning algorithms are also compared to detect degradation in the Z-pipe system of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBRII). The Z-pipe system is subjected to harmonic excitations that represent normal operating loads, such as pump-induced vibrations. The findings of the study indicate that the proposed artificial intelligence (AI)-driven condition monitoring framework demonstrates superior prediction accuracies with a 2D CNN, whereas the MLP exhibits higher computational efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relocation of the Seismicity of the Caucasus Region

Our objective is to improve the view of the seismicity in the Caucasus region using instrumental data between 1951 and 2019. To create a comprehensive catalog, we combine the bulletins of local agencies and the International Seismological Centre, and use an advanced single-event location algorithm, iLoc, to obtain better locations. We show that relocations with iLoc, using travel-time predictions from the 3D upper mantle velocity model, Regional Seismic Travel Time, improve the locations. Then, using the iLoc results as initial locations and the ground-truth events identified in the iLoc results as fix points, we apply Bayesloc, a multiple-event location algorithm, to simultaneously relocate the entire seismicity of the Caucasus region. Here we demonstrate that the simultaneous relocation of the seismicity with Bayesloc clarifies the location and geometry of major active structures accommodating ongoing convergence between the Arabian and Eurasian continents between the Black and Caspian Seas. Among our major findings is the confirmation of widespread seismicity in the mantle beneath the northern flank of the Greater Caucasus and central Caspian, resulting from north-dipping subduction of the Kura and South Caspian basins and the identification of a discrete band of crustal seismicity beneath the southern flank of the Greater Caucasus.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Applying 3D Geologic Modeling Workflows to the Argillite Reference Case (Rev. 1)

The objective of this short report is to document the application of our 3D geologic modeling workflow to an argillite (shale) host rock. Over the past four years, our team at Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed a geologic modeling workflow that can be applied to generic alluvial basins such as those found in the western United States. In “frontier” or “exploratory” basins where data are sparse, the first steps are to collect, evaluate and integrate available subsurface data into conceptual geologic models. Those models form the basis for constructing the geologic framework model, a 3D geocellular model ideally constrained by seismic and borehole data. To date we have constructed our models using “synthetic” well data derived from conceptual models, without the prospect of validating our workflow using “real” subsurface data. We were tasked to investigate whether our workflow designed for alluvial basin sediments could be applied to other potential repository host rocks. This task also provided the opportunity to work with high-quality subsurface data collected specifically for siting and evaluating a nuclear waste repository. Nagra, the Swiss governmental agency responsible for the disposal of the nation’s radioactive waste, generously provided us with data from two deep boreholes drilled through their argillaceous target formation. The aim of our proof-of-concept demonstration is to evaluate whether geostatistical methods offer a viable approach to property modeling in argillaceous rocks. Nagra provided us with the well data on the condition that we maintain confidentiality with all transferred information and results. Fortunately, Nagra posts numerous technical reports on its public website that describe the subsurface geology in great detail. All of the information and illustrations in this report related to the Swiss repository enterprise are taken from the Nagra public website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the seismic response of a molten salt nuclear reactor

Abstract One Generation IV nuclear reactor, which uses a fluoride salt as a coolant, graphite reflector blocks as a moderator, and circulating buoyant TRISO pebbles as fuel is at an advanced stage of development. To characterize the seismic behavior of components of this reactor, validate numerical models for analysis, and develop recommendations for design, a set of earthquake‐simulator experiments on a scaled model of the reactor vessel and its internals was executed on a six‐degree‐of‐freedom earthquake simulator. The model was seismically isolated at its base using two types of spherical sliding bearings. The scaled model involved representations of the prototype reactor vessel, core barrel, reflector blocks, coolant, and spherical fuel pebbles. The material and geometric properties of different test components were selected based on a dynamic similitude scaling analysis and an approximate length scale of 0.4. Four sets of three‐component earthquake motions were used as inputs for testing. Instrumentation on the test specimen recorded the dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and reflector‐block assembly, the hydrodynamic responses (sloshing and hydrodynamic pressure) of the liquid coolant, pebble consolidation under earthquake shaking, and the behavior of the isolation systems. This paper describes the design of the experiments and presents key results from the tests. The dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and the reflector blocks revealed that the components responded as a unit for the intense shaking used in the experiments. The sloshing response of the fluid in a thin annulus near the perimeter of the vessel was heavily damped. The change in the packing fraction of the pebble bed under repeated, intense 3D earthquake shaking was less than 3%. Seismically isolating the vessel substantially reduced demands on its internal components.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Next Generation Seismic Analyses and Monitoring

The development of methods and capabilities to compute complete waveform simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models along with adjoint methods for computing the fully 3D sensitivity kernels in the 2000's set the stage for new advances in seismic imaging. I believe that the full benefits of adjoint waveform tomography (AWT) are not yet fully realized and this will be an important direction for the future of seismic tomography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018

All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Regional Moment Tensor Inversion for Moderately Large Earthquakes in the Western United States Using a 3D Earth Model Based on Full Waveform Tomography

The nature of seismic sources for moderately large (moment magnitude, M w 5.0–6.5) events are commonly characterized by their moment tensor (MT) solutions and obtained by inversion of regional distance (200–1600 km) long‐period (20–50 s) waveforms. Regional MT estimates are often calculated from average plane‐layered, one‐dimensional (1D) velocity models. However, 1D model calculations can produce misfits in the arrival times and waveform shapes that introduce errors, particularly at longer distances or for shorter periods, which are necessary for analyzing lower magnitude events. Approximate Earth models (e.g., 1D) representing broad areas may be inadequate, particularly in the crust and uppermost mantle of tectonically complex regions. In this study, we show how a three‐dimensional (3D) Earth model obtained from full waveform inversion tomography can improve waveform fits and decrease phase errors. We developed a platform and workflow to perform routine 3D MT inversions and inverted MTs for 25 earthquakes in the western United States and seven nuclear explosions using an average 1D and a recent 3D Earth model, WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022). Using the 3D model improves waveform fits (variance reduction and phase time shifts) compared with the 1D model, and the 3D MT solutions are stable across large distances. This study shows that 3D models obtained from full waveform tomography can improve MTs and source characterization especially at far regional distances (>800 km).

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Kimberlina synthetic multiphysics dataset for CO 2 monitoring investigations

Abstract We present a synthetic multi‐scale, multi‐physics dataset constructed from the Kimberlina 1.2 CO 2 reservoir model based on a potential CO 2 storage site in the Southern San Joaquin Basin of California. Among 300 models, one selected reservoir‐simulation scenario produces hydrologic‐state models at the onset and after 20 years of CO 2 injection. Subsequently, these models were transformed into geophysical properties, including P‐ and S‐wave seismic velocities, saturated density where the saturating fluid can be a combination of brine and supercritical CO 2 , and electrical resistivity using established empirical petrophysical relationships. From these 3D distributions of geophysical properties, we have generated synthetic time‐lapse seismic, gravity and electromagnetic responses with acquisition geometries that mimic realistic monitoring surveys and are achievable in actual field situations. We have also created a series of synthetic well logs of CO 2 saturation, acoustic velocity, density and induction resistivity in the injection well and three monitoring wells. These were constructed by combining the low‐frequency trend of the geophysical models with the high‐frequency variations of actual well logs collected at the potential storage site. In addition, to better calibrate our datasets, measurements of permeability and pore connectivity have been made on cores of Vedder Sandstone, which forms the primary reservoir unit. These measurements provide the range of scales in the otherwise synthetic dataset to be as close to a real‐world situation as possible. This dataset consisting of the reservoir models, geophysical models, simulated time‐lapse geophysical responses and well logs forms a multi‐scale, multi‐physics testbed for designing and testing geophysical CO 2 monitoring systems as well as for imaging and characterization algorithms. The suite of numerical models and data have been made publicly available for downloading on the National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) Energy Data Exchange (EDX) website.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Scale Design And Advanced Manufacturing Of Seismic Metamaterials (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, METAseismic sought to investigate a multi-scale approach, both in terms of manufacturing and design, for seismic metamaterials with applications in the energy sector. Specifically, this project explored the feasibility of using nanofabrication to enable the incorporation of 3D nanostructured components into a mechanical metamaterial. These components were explored to increase the seismic resilience of our infrastructure to earthquakes, with the final aim of providing customized levels of protection for its components. This was envisioned as the base of a multi-scale design approach that consisted of using a multiplicity of metamaterial architectures ranging from the nano- to the meso-scale to address the stringent seismic design objectives of electric-power equipment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Geologic Framework Modelling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site and Pajarito Plateau: Integrating a realistic 3D fault network and modelling subsurface relationships in a sparsely sampled and complex geologic region

The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Newmark-Type Pseudo-Three-Dimensional Back-Analysis of Co-Seismic Landslides in Egkremnoi, Lefkada, Greece

A pseudo-three-dimensional (pseudo-3D) methodology to back-analyze coseismic landslides was developed and applied to 68mapped landslides, which occurred over approximately 1 km2area in Egkremnoi, Greece, during the 2015 Mw6.5 Lefkada earthquake. The methodology is based on a one-dimensional (1D) Newmark-type sliding block model to assess instability and a spatial projection in 3D topography to derive landslide geometry. The strength parameters for modeled landslides that best match the landslide location, area, and volume were derived through an iterative scheme that optimizes the match using predefined matching criteria. The range of different-sized landslides produced shear strength estimates from ~10 to 300 kPa and led to the derivation of a regionally averaged strength envelope characterized by a cohesion of 6 kPa and a friction angle of 53°for the highly fractured limestones that are encountered in this area. Compared to previous full 3Dslope stability analyses in this area, the friction angle using this methodology was found to be generally consistent, but the cohesion was lower. The presented methodology can provide a computationally efficient method to estimate the average shear strength of a geologic unit over large areas, especially where extensive field and laboratory tests on the materials are unavailable or difficult to conduct.

Weibing Gong↗