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DOE OSTI2022

Basin and Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy: Exploration Data

This data package includes exploration material from the Basin & Range Investigation for Developing Geothermal Energy [in Hidden Systems] project (BRIDGE), which is part of a broader initiative to advance the exploration of hidden geothermal resources in the Basin & Range Province of the western U.S. Data modalities include a helicopter-borne time-domain electromagnetic survey, magnetotellurics, 2-meter temperature measurements, ground-based gravity and legacy aeromagnetic surveys, geochemistry, geologic mapping, LiDAR analysis, 3D models, associated geospatial data, and a bibliography of existing data and references utilized in prospect characterization and conceptual modeling. Key files are in CSV, Geosoft, and Geotools formats. Please refer to READMEs for dataset-specific information. Where applicable, acquisition data and inversion models for a particular prospect or area of interest are organized separately. This BRIDGE data package is the product of a collaboration led by Sandia National Laboratories with partners from Geologica Geothermal Group, Inc., the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office, and consultants Steven Sewell (Australis Geoscience Ltd) and William Cumming (Cumming Geoscience). The project's areas of interest (AOIs) are based off priority areas of interest in the southwestern portion of the Nevada Play Fairway map, distribution across tectonic provinces, accessibility, and the project team's extensive experience in the region. AOIs cover about a dozen basins that include unexplored prospects, partially explored prospects, and some developed analogue resources that provide validation cases. Many unexplored and partially explored prospects are on U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) land, though adjacent lands are included as well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

De-risking superhot EGS development through 3D play fairway analysis: Methodology development and application at Newberry Volcano, Oregon, USA

The DErisking Exploration for multiple geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments (DEEPEN) project aims to de-risk exploration of geothermal plays in magmatic systems, with a focus on superhot and supercritical geothermal systems. This article presents advancements in geoscientific assessment of superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resources as part of the DEEPEN project, particularly in exploration and identification of these systems. While there exists a general consensus on key components of conventional hydrothermal systems, there has not been a prior consensus on such components for EGS, let alone superhot EGS. The DEEPEN project identified these key components for superhot EGS plays, and used them to modify the traditional geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) approach to identify favorable areas in superhot EGS plays in 3D. This was done through modeling both favorability and uncertainty separately for each key component of a superhot EGS play, incorporating diverse 3D geoscientific datasets, including geologic features, models produced from direct observations, single inversions, and joint inversions. The PFA is applied to Newberry Volcano as a form of validation. Finally, the results appear to validate the methodology, aligning with expectations derived from conceptual modeling, and highlighting the area targeted for EGS stimulation well NWG 55-29 as favorable, and suggesting potential additional areas worthy of exploration at Newberry.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Effect of Fault Geometry and Minimum Shear Wavespeed on 3D Ground-Motion Simulations for an M w 6.5 Hayward Fault Scenario Earthquake, San Francisco Bay Area, Northern California

We investigated the effects of fault geometry and assumed minimum shear wavespeed (V Smin ) on 3D ground-motion simulations (0–2.5 Hz) in general, using a moment magnitude (M w ) 6.5 earthquake on the Hayward fault (HF). Simulations of large earthquakes on the northeast-dipping HF using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 3D seismic model have shown intensity asymmetry with stronger shaking for the Great Valley Sequence east of the HF (hanging wall) relative to the Franciscan Complex to the west (footwall). We performed simulations with three fault geometries in both plane-layered (1D) and 3D models. Results show that the nonvertical fault geometries result in larger motions on the hanging wall relative to the vertical fault for the same Earth model with up to 50% amplifications in single-component peak ground velocity (PGV) within 10 km of the rupture. Near-fault motions on the footwall are reduced for the nonvertical faults, but less than they are increased on the hanging wall. Simulations assuming V Smin values of 500 and 250 m/s reveal that PGVs are on average 25% higher west of the HF when using the lower V Smin ,with some locations amplified by a factor of 3. Increasing frequency content from 2.5 to 5 Hz increases PGV values. Spectral ratios of these two V Smin cases show average amplifications of 2–4 (0.5–1.5 Hz) for the lower V Smin west of the fault. Large differences (up to 2×) in PGV across the HF from previous studies persist even for the case with a vertical fault or V Smin of 250 m/s. We conclude that assuming a V Smin of 500 m/s underestimates intensities west of the HF for frequencies above 0.5 Hz, and that low upper crustal (depth <10 km) shear wavespeeds defined in the 3D model contribute most to higher intensities east of the HF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground‐Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground‐Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities

We report on high‐performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (⁠Mw⁠) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite‐difference code. We computed motions obeying physics‐based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane‐layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground‐motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional‐scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between‐event uncertainties (⁠τ⁠) of ground‐motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2–10 s (frequencies 0.1–5 Hz). The within‐event standard deviation ϕ of ground‐motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2–0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source‐normalized ratios of intensities (3D/1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions with median and within‐event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site‐specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.

Rodgers, Arthur J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving deep learning performance for predicting large-scale geological ${{CO}_{2}}$ sequestration modeling through feature coarsening

Physics-based reservoir simulation for fluid flow in porous media is a numerical simulation method to predict the temporal-spatial patterns of state variables (e.g. pressure p) in porous media, and usually requires prohibitively high computational expense due to its non-linearity and the large number of degrees of freedom (DoF). This work describes a deep learning (DL) workflow to predict the pressure evolution as fluid flows in large-scale 3-dimensional(3D) heterogeneous porous media. In particular, we develop an efficient feature coarsening technique to extract the most representative information and perform the training and prediction of DL at the coarse scale, and further recover the resolution at the fine scale by spatial interpolation. We validate the DL approach to predict pressure field against physics-based simulation data for a field-scale 3D geologic CO 2 sequestration reservoir model. We evaluate the impact of feature coarsening on DL performance, and observe that the feature coarsening not only decreases the training time by >74% and reduces the memory consumption by >75%, but also maintains temporal error 0.63% on average. Besides, the DL workflow provides predictive efficiency with 1406 times speedup compared to physics-based numerical simulation. The key findings from this research significantly improve the training and prediction efficiency of deep learning model to deal with large-scale heterogeneous reservoir models, and thus it can also be further applied to accelerate workflows of history matching and reservoir optimization for close-loop reservoir management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Snake River Plain FORGE: Site Characterization Data

The site characterization data used to develop the conceptual geologic model for the Snake River Plain site in Idaho, as part of phase 1 of the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) initiative. This collection includes data on seismic events, groundwater, geomechanical models, gravity surveys, magnetics, resistivity, magnetotellurics (MT), rock physics, stress, the geologic setting, and supporting documentation, including several papers. Also included are 3D models (Petrel and Jewelsuite) of the proposed site. Data for wells INEL-1, WO-2, and USGS-142 have been included as links to separate data collections. These data have been assembled by the Snake River Geothermal Consortium (SRGC), a team of collaborators that includes members from national laboratories, universities, industry, and federal agencies, lead by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Other contributors include the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CEAS), the University of Idaho, Idaho State University, Boise State University, University of Wyoming, University of Oklahoma, Energy and Geoscience Institute-University of Utah, US Geothermal, Baker Hughes Campbell Scientific Inc., Chena Power, US Geological Survey (USGS), Idaho Department of Water Resources, Idaho Geological Survey, and Mink GeoHydro.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Basin and Petroleum System Modeling of Gas Hydrate Deposits in the Walker Ridge Area, Northern Gulf of Mexico - Poster

Poster presented by NETL at ICGH, 06/17 - Abstract:<p><br></p><p>We are currently constructing an Earth model of the Terrebonne Basin for comprehensive 3D modeling. Well data and a high-quality 3D seismic survey underpin the geologic conditions for the model. Additional model constraints include basal heat flow, seafloor temperature, and paleowater depth through time. Our initial investigation comprises the development of a “pseudo” 2D model centered on the deep WR313 #001 well. We are using this test case to establish the workflow for integrating BPSM with gas hydrate analyses; this will eventually be applied to the entire mini-basin. </p><p><br></p><p>A key aspect of investigating the gas hydrate system with BPSM is integrating it with the other active petroleum system(s) in the region, because the methane in hydrate deposits can derive from both biogenic and thermogenic sources. Some of the questions we may consider are: What is the history of these deposits with respect to the gas hydrate stability zone, recognizing that this area is not one characterized by simple continuous sedimentation and subsidence, but instead by periodic uplift, tilting, plate rotation, sea-level change, salt tectonics, and evolution of temperature gradients. </p><p><br></p><p>In conclusion, BPSM has been called the ‘great integrator’ in petroleum exploration. Development of a BPSM model of gas hydrates in the Terrebonne Basin of the northern GoM will provide a vehicle within which to integrate other early exploration and assessment research being conducted on gas hydrates, such as in frontier areas like Japan, as a potential resource likely to provide many decades of energy if proven to be commercially producible</p>

Dafov, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of M w 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections

Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. In this work we report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra . At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low V S material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface V S of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Computational Approach for Improving Three-Dimensional Sub-Surface Earth Structure for Regional Earthquake Hazard Simulations in the San Francisco Bay Area

In our Exascale Computing Project (ECP) we seek to simulate earthquake ground motions at much higher frequency than is currently possible. Previous simulations in the SFBA were limited to 0.5-1 Hz or lower (Aagaard et al. 2008, 2010), while we have recently simulated the response to 5 Hz. In order to improve confidence in simulated ground motions, we must accurately represent the three-dimensional (3D) sub-surface material properties that govern seismic wave propagation over a broad region. We are currently focusing on the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) with a Cartesian domain of size 120 x 80 x 35 km, but this area will be expanded to cover a larger domain. Currently, the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) has a 3D model of the SFBA for seismic simulations. However, this model suffers from two serious shortcomings relative to our application: 1) it does not fit most of the available low frequency (< 1 Hz) seismic waveforms from moderate (magnitude M 3.5-5.0) earthquakes; and 2) it is represented with much lower resolution than necessary for the high frequency simulations (> 5 Hz) we seek to perform. The current model will serve as a starting model for full waveform tomography based on 3D sensitivity kernels. This report serves as the deliverable for our ECP FY2017 Quarter 4 milestone to FY 2018 “Computational approach to developing model updates”. We summarize the current state of 3D seismic simulations in the SFBA and demonstrate the performance of the USGS 3D model for a few selected paths. We show the available open-source waveform data sets for model updates, based on moderate earthquakes recorded in the region. We present a plan for improving the 3D model utilizing the available data and further development of our SW4 application. We project how the model could be improved and present options for further improvements focused on the shallow geotechnical layers using dense passive recordings of ambient and human-induced noise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technology Summary L-21044 Tunnel Sensor Hydrogeology Evaluations

Illicit tunneling along the U.S. Mexican border is a persistent national security problem. Several types of sensors could be to used to detect tunnels, but the hydrogeology of the subsurface makes some technologies ineffective. This effort used available borehole and surface geology data to develop 3D hydrogeologic models, which could then provide the input for optimizing subsurface sensor technologies to detect tunnels. Depending on the specific type of sensor, the following physical properties of the subsurface are important: longitudinal speed (velocity-p), shear speed (velocity-s), acoustic attenuation, electrical permittivity, electrical conductivity, density and elastic properties. LLNL developed a procedure which uses hydrogeological datasets to determine 3D hydrogeology cross sections. The physical properties of the rocks are generally not known precisely, thus ranges of properties would need to be considered. This cross-section data can then be utilized to enhance modeling studies to optimize sensor types/systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework

The objective of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the revision of the three dimensional (3D) geoframework model (GFM) of the Central Plateau Vadose Zone (CPVZ) on the Hanford Site. CP-60925, Model Package Report: Central Plateau Vadose Zone Geoframework, documents the original version of the CPVZGFM (herein after called the CPVZ-Rev.0) and is the underlying basis for the CPVZ conceptual model. The CPVZ GFM provides a more detailed interpretation of the vadose zone hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs) in the Central Plateau area of the greater Hanford South geoframework model (HSGFM) (ECF-HANFORD-13-0029, Development of the Hanford South Geologic Framework Model, Hanford Site, Washington). The development of the CPVZ GFM provides a consistent vadose zone geologic framework that is needed to support the 3D, multiple-waste-site modeling approach proposed in CP-60405, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Vadose Zone, while incorporating an appropriate level of geologic data and interpretations for the size of the model using current site-standard HSUs. Future more detailed site-specific investigations within the Central Plateau can then use the CPVZ GFM as a starting point instead of the larger scale HSGFM. This GFM was developed using the site standard and approved for use IHS Kingdom software. This ECF is a revision to the original model described in CP-60925, but the underlying assumptions and conceptual model are unchanged. Therefore, this revision is a new calculation of version 1.0 of the CPVZ GFM and not a new version of the GFM. Throughout this report, the original model documented in CP-60925 is called CPVZ-Rev.0and the calculation for this revision of the model is called CPVZ-Rev.1.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Coronado National Memorial Disasters: Investigating Geohazards & Slope Failure Susceptibility Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Coronado National Memorial (CORO), located in Hereford, Arizona, is situated along the United States' southern border, featuring recently established but still incomplete border barrier roads. This landscape is inherently prone to geohazards, and debris flow due to the steep mountainous topography, complex terrain, monsoonal rains, and freeze/thaw action - and the new infrastructure has exhibited these processes in the form of rockfall, embankment failure, and debris flow. NASA DEVELOP partnered with CORO to conduct a feasibility assessment of Earth observations for identification of geohazards and slope failure susceptibility. Leveraging Earth observations (United States Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program Digital Elevation Model and a locally obtained Light Detection And Ranging-derived Digital Elevation Model) from 2019 to 2023, and geospatial datasets starting from 2008, the study was able to provide tools to determine the focus for damage mitigation, identify areas most susceptible to slope failures, and prioritize at risk assets through three products: change detection maps, slope failure susceptibility maps, and a slope failure prioritization model. With an emphasis on monitoring high-risk areas and prioritizing mitigation efforts, the project addresses a critical gap in remediation strategies and aims to enhance preservation and safety of the region. Results of this study found that (i) the most identifiable areas of change were the road cuts and debris directly adjacent to the roads created for border construction, (ii) areas of highest slope failure susceptibility are located in mountainous areas with erosive geology, and (iii) roads resulting from border construction have approximately twice the risk of slope failure as roads created by the national park service.

Geohazard↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modelling DC responses of 3D complex fracture networks

Here, the determination of the geometrical properties of fractures plays a critical role in many engineering problems to assess the current hydrological and mechanical states of geological media and to predict their future states. However, numerical modeling of geoelectrical responses in realistic fractured media has been challenging due to the explosive computational cost imposed by the explicit discretizations of fractures at multiple length scales, which often brings about a tradeoff between computational efficiency and geologic realism. Here, we use the hierarchical finite element method to model electrostatic response of realistically complex 3D conductive fracture networks with minimal computational cost.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Coupled Hydrodynamic-Geomechanical Modelling of CO2-WAG Field Development at Farnsworth Unit: A Case Study

Abstract The SWP project is located in a mature waterflood undergoing conversion to CO2-WAG operations at Farnsworth, Texas, USA. Utilized CO2 is anthropogenic, sourced from a fertilizer and an ethanol plant. Major project goals are optimizing the storage/production balance, ensuring storage permanence, and developing best practices for CCUS. This paper provides a review of work performed toward development of a 3D coupled Mechanical Earth Model (MEM) for use in assessment of caprock integrity, fault reactivation potential, and evaluation of stress dependent permeability in reservoir forecasting. Mechanical property estimates computed from geophysical logs at selected wellbores were integrated with 3D seismic elastic inversion products to create a 3D "static" mechanical property model sharing the same geological framework as the existing reservoir simulation model including 3 major faults. Stresses in the MEM were initialized from wellbore stress estimates and reservoir simulation pore pressures. One way and two way coupled simulations were performed using a compositional hydrodynamic flow model and geomechanical solvers. Coupled simulations were performed on history matched primary, secondary (waterflood), and tertiary (CO2 WAG) recovery periods, as well as an optimized WAG prediction period. These simulations suggest that the field has been operating at conditions which are not conducive to either caprock failure or fault reactivation. Two way coupled simulations were performed in which permeability was periodically updated as a function of volumetric strain using the Kozeny-Carmen porosity-permeability relationship. These simulations illustrate the importance of frequent permeability updating when recovery scenarios result in large pressure changes such as in field re-pressurization through waterflood after a long primary depletion recovery period. Conversely, production forecasting results are less sensitive to permeability update frequency when pressure cycles are short and shallow as in WAG cycles. This paper describes initial work on development of a mechanical earth model for use in assessment of geomechanical risks associated with CCUS operations at FWU. The emphasis of this work is on integration of available geomechanical data for creation of the static mechanical property model. Preliminary coupled hydro-mechanical simulations are presented to illustrate some of the key diagnostic output from coupled simulations which will be used in later work for in depth evaluation of specific risk factors such as induced seismicity and caprock integrity.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building an EPA Class VI Permit Application

Summary To accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the US Department of Energy (US DOE) is building on decades of characterization efforts and pilot-scale projects through their CarbonSAFE program. Administered through their National Energy Technology Laboratory, this program seeks to bring fully integrated projects to the sector that can store more than 50 million tonnes of CO2 over a 30-year period. The program, which was enacted before the enhancement of Internal Revenue Code Section 45Q, is in the capture assessment, characterization, and permitting phase. The objectives of this paper are to discuss (a) the injection permitting requirements of the CarbonSAFE projects; (b) information gathering in support of the permit; (c) the timelines of field development and permit-related activities; (d) the major technical components of the field development plan; and (e) early feedback from the regulators toward acceptance of the permit. In Mississippi, more than 30,000 acres have been characterized by six deep characterization wells, a deep groundwater well, and 92 line miles of 2D seismic as part of the CarbonSAFE Project ECO2S. During the acquisition of seismic data, all receiver lines were live, which resulted in the generation of a pseudo-3D seismic design. The incorporation of a 3D seismic survey was not included as part of this project due to logistical difficulties presented by the undulating, wooded surface terrain. A suite of openhole geophysical logs was taken from each well, allowing for a detailed interpretation of prospective storage reservoirs and confining intervals to complement the analysis carried out on the 290 ft of a whole core that was cut through the prospective confining zone and storage reservoir. The detailed geologic and reservoir data were assembled and entered into a 3D model to assess the injection capacity and the area of review (AoR). This information fed into the detailed corrective action, monitoring, testing, and postinjection site care (PISC) modeling. The results have been exceptional. The geologic assessment has revealed three primary storage targets, ranging in depth from 3,500 ft to 6,000 ft. These storage reservoirs net 1,300 ft of sandstone, with mean porosity and permeability of 29% and 3.6 darcies, respectively. Together, these reservoirs have storage capacities that may exceed 20 million tonnes per square mile, making this a gigatonne prospect. Forward modeling of the project resulted in an AoR of 16 sq miles, injecting about 8000 t/d, for 30 years, via two deep injection wells. The excellent confining characteristics of the caprock, relatively simple geologic structure, and lack of historical well drilling activity in this area provide excellent containment of the injected CO2. Based on this work, the project has proposed 20 years of PISC. To date, only two US CO2 injection permits have been granted. These projects relied on a singular capture point feeding a singular sequestration point (source to sink), and considerations have not been made to garner CO2 emissions from other industrial sources. The Kemper County Storage Complex is a first-of-its-kind storage hub concept that looks to develop an area capable of storing significant quantities of CO2 from the region. Also, this work will show how characterization efforts, geological and numerical modeling efforts, and plan development were constructed in support of permit and incentives acceptance.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2019

Velocity Structure at the Source Physics Experiment Phase I Site Obtained with the Large-N Array Data

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) consists of a series of chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. The goal of the SPE is to understand and model seismic-wave generation and propagation from these explosions. To achieve this goal, we need an accurate velocity model of the SPE site. A large-N seismic array deployed at the SPE site during one of the chemical explosions (SPE-5) provides great data for this purpose. The array consists of 996 geophones and covers an area of approximately 2 &times; 2.5 km. In addition to the SPE-5 explosion, the array recorded 53 large weight drops. Using the large-N seismic array recordings, we perform first-arrival analysis and obtain a 2D P-wave velocity model of the SPE site. We image a sharp transition from high-velocity Cretaceous granite to low-velocity Quaternary alluvium. Other geological units such as the Tertiary volcanic rocks and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks are also clearly shown. The results of this work provide important local geological information and will be incorporated into the larger 3D modeling effort of the SPE program to validate the predictive models developed for the site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Numerical Simulation of M9 Megathrust Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We estimate ground motions in the Pacific Northwest urban areas during M9 subduction scenario earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by simulating wave propagation from an ensemble of kinematic source descriptions. Velocities and densities in our computational mesh are defined by integrating the regional Cascadia Community Velocity Model (CVM) v1.6 (Stephenson et al. P-and S-wave velocity models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone for 3D earthquake ground motion simulations—update for open-file report 2007–1348, US Geological Survey, 2017) including the ocean water layer with a local velocity model of the Georgia basin (Molnar, Predicting earthquake ground shaking due to 1D soil layering and 3D basin structure in SW British Columbia, Canada, 2011), including additional near-surface velocity information. We generate six source realizations, each consisting of a background slip distribution with correlation lengths, rise times and rupture velocities consistent with data from previous megathrust earthquakes (e.g., 2011 M 9 Tohoku or 2010 M 8.8 Maule). We then superimpose M ~ 8 subevents, characterized by short rise times and high stress drops on the background slip model to mimic high-frequency strong ground motion generation areas in the deeper portion of the rupture (Frankel, Bull Seismol Soc Am 107(1):372–386, 2017). The wave propagation is simulated using the discontinuous mesh (DM) version of the AWP finite difference code. We simulate frequencies up to 1.25 Hz, using a spatial discretization of 100 m in the fine grid, resulting in surface grid dimensions of 6540 × 10,728 mesh points. At depths below 8 km, the grid step increases to 300 m. We obtain stable and accurate results for the DM method throughout the simulation time of 7.5 min as verified against a solution obtained with a uniform 100 m grid spacing. Peak ground velocities (PGVs) range between 0.57 and 1.0 m/s in downtown Seattle and between 0.25 and 0.54 m/s in downtown Vancouver, while spectral accelerations at 2 s range between 1.7 and 3.6 m/s 2 and 1.0 and 1.3 m/s 2 , respectively. These long-period ground motions are not significantly reduced if plastic Drucker-Prager yielding in shallow cohesionless sediments is taken into account. Effects of rupture directivity are significant at periods of ~ 10 s, but almost absent at shorter periods. We find that increasing the depth extent of the subducting slab from the truncation at 60 km in the Cascadia CVM version 1.6 to ~ 100 km increases the PGVs by 15% in Seattle and by 40% in Vancouver.

finite difference method↗