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DOE OSTI2025

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Abstract The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season started quickly, with the earliest Category 5 on record (Beryl) and three hurricanes forming through 14 August. Following Ernesto's dissipation on 20 August, the Atlantic hurricane season became extremely quiet during the climatological peak of hurricane season, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm through 23 September. Several environmental factors likely contributed to this unexpected, prolonged lull. During mid‐to‐late August, subseasonal conditions were broadly favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but a northward shift in African easterly wave emergence latitude yielded fewer tropical cyclone seed disturbances that also traversed unfavorably cool ocean water. During early‐to‐mid September, subseasonal variability driven by the Madden‐Julian oscillation was less conducive to hurricane activity, with several bouts of increased vertical wind shear across the central Atlantic. Throughout most of the lull, the tropical Atlantic was anomalously dry and subsident, suppressing hurricane formation chances. Plain Language Summary The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season was anticipated to be extremely active, with seasonal forecasts calling for a potentially historic season. Following a busy start including the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (Beryl), the season became very quiet between 20 August–23 September, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm forming. Following the lull, the Atlantic became extremely busy again, with seven hurricanes forming from 25 September through the end of the season–the most on record for this period. This paper focuses on the surprising lull and attributes it to several different factors, including a late‐August northward shift in African easterly wave tracks (organized thunderstorm complexes spanning thousands of kilometers that often serve as Atlantic hurricane seeds). This northward shift brought these systems out over colder water and into a drier airmass, suppressing their hurricane formation chances. During the first 3 weeks of September, a large‐scale tropical phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian oscillation, resulted in increased sinking motion, drier mid‐levels and increased vertical wind shear–all of which typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Overall, the lull demonstrates how seed disturbances and other environmental factors can strongly modulate aggregate seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting agencies, which called for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Factors reducing storm count included a northward shift in African easterly waves, broad‐scale subsidence, and reduced mid‐level moisture

Klotzbach, P J↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: 2024 Discrete Fracture Network Model Data

The Utah FORGE 2024 Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model dataset provides a set of files representing discrete fracture network modeling for the FORGE site near Milford, Utah. The dataset includes four distinct DFN model file sets, each corresponding to different time frames and modeling approaches in 2024. These models characterize both natural and induced fractures in the geothermal reservoir, which consists of crystalline granitic and metamorphic rock approximately 8,000 feet below the ground surface. The dataset includes a reference DFN model from February 2024 that incorporates planar fractures and well trajectories, as well as upscaled permeability, porosity, compressibility, and storage values on specified grids. Additionally, there are models based on new microseismic (MEQ) data from May and July 2024, including fracture planes fitted to the latest MEQ catalog datasets, tensile fractures from hydraulic stimulation, and an alternative connected DFN for modeling purposes. Coordinate data is provided in both global and local frames, with detailed instructions on the transformations used to align with principal stress orientations. The dataset also includes notes and calculation files for estimating fracture sizes and differences between various fracture sets. There are subfolders for Global Coordinates and Local Coordinates. To move from the global to the local coordinate frame, fractures and wells were a) rotated 20 degrees counterclockwise looking down about the global point (335376.400482041, 4263189.99998761, 250.093546450195) to better align with the principal stresses; and b) translated by (-335408.68, -4263010.9, 1150). Upscaled permeability values using the _XYZ suffix show directions with respect to the global XYZ coordinate frame, while those using the _IJK suffix are aligned with local coordinate frame.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores current open questions in prediction in ungauged and unmonitored basins concerning top-down versus bottom-up approaches, tradeoffs between data available and input requirements, and the appropriate representation of catchment attributes as inputs to deep learning models. Modeling was done primarily with long short-term memory (LSTM) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)".Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code: - data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- error_analysis_attribute_and_groundwater_dir.zip - workflows for the extended error analysis by stream attribute and groundwater influenceData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2024streamdata, author = {Jared Willard and Fabio Ciulla and Helen Weierbach and Vipin Kumar and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models"}, year = {2024}, doi = {10.15485/2448016}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://doi.org/10.15485/2448016}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models". 2024. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy and economic impacts of U.S. federal energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024

This paper presents estimates of the key impacts of U.S. national energy and water conservation standards adopted from 1987 through 2024. The standards for consumer products, commercial and industrial equipment, lighting products, and plumbing products include those set by legislation as well as standards adopted by the Department of Energy (DOE) through rulemaking. In 2024 alone, these standards are estimated to have saved an estimated 6.0 quads of primary energy, which is equivalent to 6.5% of total U.S. energy consumption, and 1.7 trillion gallons of water, which is equivalent to approximately 12% of the annual water withdrawals for public supply in the U.S in 2015. The estimated reduction in CO 2 emissions associated with the standards in 2024 was 270 million metric tons, which is equivalent to 5.6% of total annual U.S. CO 2 emissions from energy consumption. The annual savings in operating costs for households and businesses totaled $\$$105 billion, and the average household saved $\$$576 in operating costs as a result of standards on residential appliances and plumbing products. The estimated cumulative past and future energy and water savings from these standards amount to 307 quads of energy and almost 53 trillion gallons of water. The estimated cumulative CO 2 emissions reduction from the standards come to 10.3 billion metric tons. Accounting for the increased upfront costs of more-efficient products and the energy and water cost savings over the products’ lifetime, the standards have a cumulative net present value of benefit of $\$$3.2 trillion using 3 percent discount rate and $\$$3.5 trillion using 7 percent discount rate when discounting past and future benefits to 2024.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

East Tennessee Technology Park Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program 2024 Calendar Year Report

The East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP) consists of three tasks that reflect different but complementary approaches to evaluating the ecological integrity of waters near ETTP. These tasks include (1) bioaccumulation monitoring of fish and clams, (2) benthic macroinvertebrate species richness and density monitoring, and (3) fish community monitoring. The sampling and analysis requirements for the ETTP BMAP in calendar year 2024, covering in part both FY 2024 and FY 2025, are outlined in the respective FY sampling and analysis plans (UCOR 2023, 2024). Sampled water bodies and locations for the ETTP BMAP are shown in Figures 1 and 2. This ETTP BMAP report presents the CY 2024 results and provides context with results from previous years. The report also includes Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)–generated biological monitoring data collected for other US Department of Energy programs, including the UCOR Water Resources Restoration Program (WRRP) off-site fish bioaccumulation data (UCOR 2023) and select Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) BMAP fish bioaccumulation data. Historical data collected for the ETTP BMAP and other programs in the nearby Poplar Creek and Clinch River are provided where appropriate. This progress report provides an update on the biological monitoring activities supporting the ETTP UCOR Environmental Compliance organization, which sponsors the ETTP BMAP. In addition to this internal reporting, ETTP BMAP results are provided in the annual remediation effectiveness reports and the annual site environmental reports, both of which are publicly available. BMAP data are also available to the public via the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System (https://ucor.com/oak-ridge-environmental-information-system-oreis/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 Buildings Technology Baseline: Dataset Documentation

The Buildings Technology Baseline is a curated and regularly updated dataset of current and projected performance, retail, and installed price data for all major building energy technologies needed to enable cost/benefit analyses. Building technology analyses require an up-to-date understanding of installation costs and cost-effectiveness of key building energy efficiency technologies. The dataset was assembled by Guidehouse during fiscal year 2024. Data was gathered from the 2024 National Residential Efficiency Measures Database (NREMDB), the 2023 Energy Information Administration Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies ("EIA Building Data Report"), DOE Lighting Market Model, the 2023 RSMeans database, and the 2020 Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Technology Cost, Performance, and Lifetime Characteristics ("GEB Data Report"), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, various literature, as well as new data from online retailers, stakeholder interviews, and contractor databases in 2023 and 2024. The dataset has been reviewed by subject matter experts at NREL and DOE. The 2024 dataset release is intended to be a starting point for interested users to provide feedback. This database is not intended to provide specific cost estimates for a specific project. The cost estimates do not include any rebates or tax incentives that may be available for the measures. Rather, it is meant to help determine which measures may be more cost-effective. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) makes every effort to ensure accuracy of the data; however, NREL does not assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

SolarAPP+ Performance Review (2024 Data)

The Solar Automated Permit Processing Plus (SolarAPP+) platform is an online portal to facilitate and expedite rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage permitting processes. SolarAPP+ allows PV contractors to upload system specifications, have that information automatically reviewed for code compliance, and receive instant approval for code-compliant systems, reducing authority having jurisdiction (AHJ) staff time needed for review. SolarAPP+ also provides inspection checklists to verify installation practices and adherence to approved designs. This report is part of an ongoing series of reviews of SolarAPP+ performance. Consistent with previous performance reviews, we summarize SolarAPP+ adoption trends to date and compare various metrics for PV systems permitted through SolarAPP+ versus systems permitted through traditional AHJ permitting processes. As of the end of 2024, 799 AHJs had expressed interest in the platform, with 264 fully adopting (215) or piloting (49) the platform. In 2024, 861 installers submitted 37,393 permits through the SolarAPP+ platform, including 27,375 permits for PV+storage systems. SolarAPP+ permits accounted for around 43% of all permits issued in all participating AHJs, and more than 60% of all permits in several participating AHJs. We compare permitting timelines through SolarAPP+ to traditional AHJ permitting processes to assess the platform's performance. Consistent with previous SolarAPP+ performance reviews, we find that permitting timelines are significantly shorter for SolarAPP+ projects. Based on median timelines, a typical SolarAPP+ project is permitted and inspected 12 business days sooner than traditional projects. We estimate that automatic SolarAPP+ permitting saved around 18,400 hours of AHJ staff time in 2024. Finally, we estimate that SolarAPP+ eliminated over 100,000 business days in permitting-related delays in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Workbooks for Cambium 2024 Data

These workbooks contain a subset of cost and emissions data from the 2024 Cambium datasets, with levelization calculations to assist users in translating Cambium’s year-over-year values to a representative value for a user-specified project timeline. These workbooks provide modeled data for 18 GEA regions covering the contiguous United States, projected forward through 2050. Mappings of these regions to ZIP codes and counties is given within this workbook in the corresponding tabs. For the full Cambium 2024 data sets, see the Cambium 2024 project on NREL's Scenario Viewer. For more details on input assumptions and methodology see the associated report: Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation. Users are advised to review section 4 of the report, which discusses limitations and caveats of the data. This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found on the NREL energy analysis page on Cambium.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2026

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid Disruption↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: Wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 Circulation Test Daily Reports from August 2024

These are the daily reports created during and around the August 2024 circulation test done on wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site. Information about the rig activity during this period includes details on rig up, depths, pumping, water temperature, safety, and cleanout. The reports span all rig activities from July 29th, 2024 through September 5th, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 JISEA Annual Meeting: Opening Session

This is the opening presentation for the 2024 JISEA Annual Meeting, which took place on February 26-27, 2024. The presentation includes background on the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis and the goals of the 2024 JISEA Annual Meeting.

2024↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: Neubrex Well 16B(78)-32 DAS Data - April, 2024

This dataset comprises Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) data collected from the Utah FORGE monitoring well 16B(78)-32 (the producer well) during hydraulic fracture stimulation operations conducted in April 2024. The data were acquired continuously over the stimulation period at a temporal sampling rate of 10,000 Hz (10 kS/s) and a spatial resolution of approximately 3.35 feet (1.02109 meters). The measurements were captured using a Neubrex NBX-S4100 Time Gated Digital DAS interrogator unit connected to a single-mode fiber optic cable, which was permanently installed within the casing string. All recorded channels correspond to downhole segments of the fiber optic cable, from a measured depth (MD) of 5,369.35 feet to 10,352.11 feet. The DAS data reflect raw acoustic energy generated by physical processes within and surrounding the well during stimulation activities at wells 16A(78)-32 and 16B(78)-32. These data have potential applications in analyzing cross-well strain, far-field strain rates (including microseismic activity), induced seismicity, and seismic imaging. Metadata embedded in the attributes of the HDF5 files include detailed information on the measured depths of the channels, interrogation parameters, and other acquisition details. The dataset also includes a recording of a seminar held on September 19, 2024, where Neubrex's Chief Operating Officer presented insights into the data collection, analysis, and preliminary findings. The raw data files, stored in HDF5 format, are organized chronologically according to the recording intervals from April 9 to April 24, 2024, with each file corresponding to a 12-second recording interval.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upper-air soundings collected during the CROCUS Urban Canyons 2024 campaign in Chicago, Illinois USA

Funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research program, Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) studies urban climate change and the impact it has on communities, with particular focus on disinvested, under-resourced communities. This information leads to new insights on urban climate challenges and informs future actions for mitigating and adapting to climate change at the street, neighborhood and regional levels.As part of the CROCUS effort, the Urban Canyons 2024 project was undertaken to study conditions at unprecedented detail over various neighborhoods in Chicago, Illinois. This dataset consists of upper air soundings that were collected as part of this effort. Soundings were launched during two intensive observing periods, IOP1 occurred on 22-23 July 2024, while IOP2 occurred on 27-28 July 2024. For IOP1, soundings were launched at coordinated times from three sites, Shedd Aquarium in Downtown Chicago, Abizu Campus High School in Humboldt Park, and Gary Comer Youth Center in West Woodlawn. For IOP2, the Gary Comer site was replaced by a neighborhood site in West Woodlawn, Chicago. The Abizu Campos site was operated by Valparaiso University and used iMET-4 rawinsondes, the other sites were operated by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and used GRAW DFM-19 sondes.This dataset contains netCDF files containing quality-controlled temperature, dewpoint, geopotential height, pressure, and vector wind measurements at 1 second intervals following launch. These files are readable by the open-source netCDF software libraries available in many software packages (i.e., python, R, fortran, C++, etc.). The dataset also contains quicklook plots of each launch on a skew-T log-p thermodynamic diagram. These are in png format viewable by most web browsers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CROCUS Air Quality Dataset from the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC), July 2024

This dataset was collected by the measurement system in the Atmosphere, Climate, and Ecosystems (ACE) Lab at the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) from July 12 to July 31, 2024, as part of the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project, led by Argonne National Laboratory.To enhance understanding of urban air quality dynamics in Chicago, and as part of the CROCUS 2024 Urban Canyon Intensive Observation Period (IOP), several instruments were set up to provide continuous measurements of air quality parameters in Chicago during July 2024. These measurements cover both aerosols and gas-phase species. It focuses on particle size distribution (2.5–478 nm) measured by two Scanning Mobility Particle Sizers (SMPS) at a 4-min resolution, total particle number concentrations at a 1-s resolution, and chemical composition from a High-Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) at a 1-min resolution. Key gas-phase species, including NO, NO₂, SO₂, and O₃, are measured at a 1-min resolution, along with high-resolution NO and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) data from a Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS). Volatile organic compound (VOC) data for toluene, isoprene, and benzene are provided by a GC-PID with a time resolution of 25 minutes.The data are formatted as NetCDF (.nc) files, making them easily accessible using common software such as MATLAB, R, and Python. Each parameter is stored in an individual dataset, which includes detailed instrument information in the header, as well as the corresponding sample start time and concentration/distribution data for each sample.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CROCUS 3-D wind data from Argonne Deployable Mast during Urban Canyon IOP July 2024

During the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project, led by Argonne National Laboratory, this dataset was collected by METEK uSonic-3 Class A MP sonic anemometer at 10 meter height of the Argonne Deployable Mast (ADM) from July 26 to July 28, 2024, .As part of the CROCUS 2024 Urban Canyon Intensive Observation Period (IOP), 3-D sonic anemometer on the ADM was set up to provide continuous measurements of wind and temperature in Chicago during July 2024. These measurements cover winds in X-, Y- and Z- direction and sonic temperature at 30-Hz resolution. The data are formatted as NetCDF (.nc) files, making them easily accessible using common software such as MATLAB, R, and Python.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lake-Effect Snowstorm Events and Associated Snowfall Totals Integrated from NOAA Storm Reports, ERA5, and HRRR for the Laurentian Great Lakes (1997–2024)

Lake-effect snowstorms are localized, impactful winter weather phenomena that can generate substantial snowfall totals and pose significant challenges for forecasting, transportation, and regional infrastructure. To support the analysis and modeling of these events, this dataset compiles observational reports of lake-effect snowstorms alongside corresponding snowfall estimates derived from gridded atmospheric datasets. The observational component of the data originates from the National Weather Service (NWS) winter storm report, subset to lake-effect snow event type, covering 1997–2024. For each lake-effect snow event, this data provides the impacted county, event start and end datetimes at an hourly resolution, as well as relevant storm narratives. The complementary reanalysis-derived data is sourced from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) gridded data. For both gridded datasets, the maximum total snowfall (in units mm) was extracted, constrained by the county and datetimes specified by the observational report. ERA5 data covers the entire observational period (1997–2024), whereas HRRR data is only available from November 2016 – December 2024. Three CSV files are provided here: (1) the observational lake-effect snow event report, (2) ERA5 maximum snowfall detections for each event, and (3) HRRR maximum snowfall detections for each event. Relevant data from the observational files, such as impacted state and county, event datetimes, and event IDs, were included for convenience. Users can inspect and visualize the data using tools such as Microsoft Excel and Python pandas/matplotlib packages. This dataset may support a variety of applications, including climatological analyses of lake-effect snowfall, evaluation of snowfall representation in atmospheric datasets and numerical weather prediction models, and the development of machine learning approaches for detecting or predicting lake-effect snowfall events.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > SOLID↗
DOE OSTI2024

LLNL FESP Theory Highlights: August 2024

The 2024 ABOUND SciDAC and BOUT++ combined workshop was held August 5-9 th 2024 at the University of California Livermore Collaboration Center (UCLC) in Livermore. Bringing together leading scientists and researchers from across the globe, this pivotal event focused on advancing plasma physics and boundary plasma dynamics within the context of fusion energy research. Key discussions throughout the meeting highlighted significant advancements in the BOUT++ framework, including enhanced simulations of small Edge Localized Modes (ELMs) and the initiation of integrating the integration of the 5D GEM gyrokinetic turbulence core code with the 2D SOLPS-ITER boundary transport code. These developments are crucial for managing heat loads in fusion reactors and supporting the longevity of plasma-facing components. The event also featured a session on Inter-SciDAC Collaborations, where principal investigators from multiple U.S. FES SciDAC tokamak projects explored opportunities for cross-collaboration. Additionally, the meeting showcased cutting-edge advancements in GPU acceleration and AI/ML technologies, poised to drive the next generation of fusion research. In his closing remarks, Dr. Xueqiao Xu emphasized the importance of the collaborative efforts and discussions that took place, noting their potential to shape future breakthroughs in fusion energy. The event underscored the global nature of the BOUT++ collaboration, with contributions from over 57 institutions worldwide. The 2024 BOUT++ and ABOUND Joint Hybrid Meeting continues to drive forward the research and innovations needed to achieve fusion energy, setting the stage for future collaboration and discovery.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗