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Comparison of Solar and Wind Power Generation Impact on Net Load across a Utility Balancing Area.
Abstract not provided.
The Missing Correlation Between the Potential Rate Impacts of Rooftop Solar and the Timing of State Net Metering Policy Revisions
Data supporting the article “The Missing Correlation Between the Potential Rate Impacts of Rooftop Solar and the Timing of State Net Metering Policy Revisions” (https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/93543.pdf). Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states-California and Hawaii-retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.
The missing correlation between the potential rate impacts of rooftop solar and the timing of state net metering policy revisions
Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states—California and Hawaii—retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.
Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation
As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.
Global Surface Net-Radiation at 5 km from MODIS Terra
Reliable and fine resolution estimates of surface net-radiation are required for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, currently, fine resolution estimates of net-radiation are not available and consequently it is challenging to develop multi-year estimates of evapotranspiration at scales that can capture land surface heterogeneity and are relevant for policy and decision-making. We developed and evaluated a global net-radiation product at 5 km and 8-day resolution by combining mutually consistent atmosphere and land data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra. Comparison with net-radiation measurements from 154 globally distributed sites (414 site-years) from the FLUXNET and Surface Radiation budget network (SURFRAD) showed that the net-radiation product agreed well with measurements across seasons and climate types in the extratropics (Wilmott's index ranged from 0.74 for boreal to 0.63 for Mediterranean sites). Mean absolute deviation between the MODIS and measured net-radiation ranged from 38.0 ± 1.8 W.m -2 in boreal to 72.0 ± 4.1 W.m -2 in the tropical climates. The mean bias was small and constituted only 11%, 0.7%, 8.4%, 4.2%, 13.3%, and 5.4% of the mean absolute error in daytime net-radiation in boreal, Mediterranean, temperate-continental, temperate, semi-arid, and tropical climate, respectively. To assess the accuracy of the broader spatiotemporal patterns, we upscaled error-quantified MODIS net-radiation and compared it with the net-radiation estimates from the coarse spatial (1° x 1°) but high temporal resolution gridded net-radiation product from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). Our estimates agreed closely with the net-radiation estimates from the CERES. Difference between the two was less than 10W.m -2 in 94% of the total land area. MODIS net-radiation product will be a valuable resource for the science community studying turbulent fluxes and energy budget at the Earth's surface.
Beam energy dependence of net- Λ fluctuations measured by the STAR experiment at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider
The measurements of particle multiplicity distributions have generated considerable interest in understanding the fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers in the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) hadronization regime, in particular near a possible critical point and near the chemical freeze-out. Net-protons and net-kaons have been used as proxies for the net-baryon number and net-strangeness, respectively. We report the measurement of efficiency- and centrality-bin width-corrected cumulant ratios (C 2 /C 1 , C 3 /C 2 ) of net- Λ distributions, in the context of both strangeness and baryon number conservation, as a function of collision energy, centrality, and rapidity. The results are for Au + Au collisions at five beam energies ( √s NN = 19.6 , 27, 39, 62.4, and 200 GeV) recorded with the Solenoidal Tracker at RHIC (STAR). We compare our results to the Poisson and negative binomial (NBD) expectations, as well as to ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics (UrQMD) and hadron resonance gas (HRG) model predictions. Both NBD and Poisson baselines agree with data within the statistical and systematic uncertainties. UrQMD describes the measured net- Λ C 1 and C 3 at 200 GeV reasonably well but deviates from C 2 , and the deviation increases as a function of collision energy. The ratios of the measured cumulants show no features of critical fluctuations. The chemical freeze-out temperatures extracted from a recent HRG calculation, which was successfully used to describe the net-proton, net-kaon, and net-charge data, indicate Λ freeze-out conditions similar to those of kaons. However, large deviations are found when comparing with temperatures obtained from net-proton fluctuations. The net- Λ cumulants show a weak but finite dependence on the rapidity coverage in the acceptance of the detector, which can be attributed to quantum number conservation.
Making Progress toward Net Zero Sites in the Army Reserve through Analysis of Multiple Scenarios
The U.S. Army Reserve (USAR) prioritized achieving net zero as part of its Sustainability Program in 2013, and developed a pilot that investigated net zero energy, water, and waste at 10 sites. Pilot sites were selected based on mission requirements for energy and water resilience and the likelihood of achieving the technical and economic thresholds for net zero. USAR owns and operates hundreds of sites that typically consist of between 2 and 10 buildings. The pilot sites were intentionally dispersed across the U.S. and its territories to provide a range of geographic characteristics where the net zero potential could be analyzed and solutions could be developed. For the Army, changes to operations must support the mission and enhance readiness, which includes increasing efficiency and resiliency. To facilitate alignment of project prioritization with different goals and site-specific needs, a net zero roadmap outlined three scenarios for project implementation: (1) cost-effective measures, (2) net zero measures, and (3) recommended measures. Each scenario included the same measures for some sites, while others had three different outcomes. USAR has used these roadmaps to plan and execute projects and move toward net zero at multiple sites since 2014, with the primary focus on the cost-effective and recommended scenarios. As conditions and costs change, additional measures required to achieve net zero are considered. This paper describes the methodology deployed for analyzing net zero for the USAR and discusses the benefits of working toward net zero under three distinct scenarios.
Cost Analysis of Annual and Monthly Net Zero Energy Performance for Multifamily Buildings in the United States
As the United States continues its progress toward sustainable construction, net zero building design is becoming an increasingly important and popular topic. Two definitions of net zero energy performance, monthly and annual, provide different levels of energy autonomy and efficiency within a building. This article analyzes the viability and incremental cost for two-, three-, and four-story multifamily apartment buildings to reach both annual and monthly net zero energy performance throughout four climate zones in the United States using baseline reference buildings that represent current construction practices. Building size plays a large role in determining the capability for a building model to reach annual or monthly net zero. Two-story buildings are capable of reaching annual net zero with an increase in construction cost of about 4.4–5.6%. Three-story buildings in warmer climates can achieve annual net zero with an increase of about 5.1%, but models in colder climates cannot reach annual net zero performance. Four-story buildings cannot achieve net zero, owing to insufficient building area for solar arrays to produce electricity. Monthly net zero energy performance was significantly harder to achieve, with the only case reaching this goal being the two-story Houston based model, at an added cost of 8.2%. Generally speaking, only small buildings in warm climates will be able to achieve monthly net zero without vastly oversizing photovoltaic systems and increasing costs without adequate payback.
NASA Net Zero Energy Buildings Roadmap
In preparation for the time-phased net zero energy requirement for new federal buildings starting in 2020, set forth in Executive Order 13514, NASA requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to develop a roadmap for NASA's compliance. NASA detailed a Statement of Work that requested information on strategic, organizational, and tactical aspects of net zero energy buildings. In response, this document presents a high-level approach to net zero energy planning, design, construction, and operations, based on NREL's first-hand experience procuring net zero energy construction, and based on NREL and other industry research on net zero energy feasibility. The strategic approach to net zero energy starts with an interpretation of the executive order language relating to net zero energy. Specifically, this roadmap defines a net zero energy acquisition process as one that sets an aggressive energy use intensity goal for the building in project planning, meets the reduced demand goal through energy efficiency strategies and technologies, then adds renewable energy in a prioritized manner, using building-associated, emission- free sources first, to offset the annual energy use required at the building; the net zero energy process extends through the life of the building, requiring a balance of energy use and production in each calendar year.
Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies
With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.
The effects of storage on the net calorific value of wood pellets
The wood pellet export from Canada to Europe has been increasing steadily in recent years (roughly 1.8 million ton in 2013). Due to distances involved, wood pellets remain in transit and storage for months before their final consumption. The net calorific value determines the price of wood pellet purchase in Europe. There have been concerns about the changes of net calorific values over time. In this study, the effects of storage time, storage configuration, storage temperature, and wood pellet quality on the net calorific value of wood pellets for a period of 6 months were investigated. Storage configurations were open or closed and storage temperatures were 25 °C, 35 °C and 45 °C. Two types of wood pellets used were whitewood and mixed. The results in closed storage indicated that storage time had a positive effect on the net calorific value where the net calorific value increased by 1% to 2% over the storage period. In open storage, the moisture content had the most significant impact on the net calorific value. The net calorific values of the two types of wood pellets were found to be significantly different at p < 0.001. A multivariable linear regression and analyses of variance performed verified the graphical results. Lastly, the authors postulated that the higher energy potential compounds, such as aldehyde and ketone, produced during pellet storage, caused the increase in net calorific values.
Direct NeTS sampling of nuclear graphite $S(α, β, T)$ in Serpent
For advanced reactor applications, Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) modules were developed to predict the thermal scattering law (TSL or $S(α, β, T)$) of a nuclear graphite neutron moderator. NeTS are multi-layer, feedforward artificial neural networks, which act as universal function approximators designed for TSL datasets. In this case, a 4-layer neural network with 164 neurons per layer is trained using FLASSH evaluated data in PyTorch and serialized as a torchscript dictionary to predict $S(α, β, T)$ on-the-fly. Relative, absolute and maximum percent deviations of NeTS from File 7 data generated using the FLASSH code are on the order of 0.01%, 0.1% and 1%, respectively, with low inference latencies of 0.000172 s per $S(α, β, T)$ at a given temperature. Capturing the full dimensionality of possible inelastic neutron-lattice interactions, NeTS functionality is embedded in the Serpent Monte Carlo code, where $S(α, β, T)_{NeTS}$ sampling is conducted on-the-fly and compared to ACE look-up-tables for predicting TREAT criticality. k-eff differences between sampling algorithms of 6 pcm are observed and are within the order of Monte Carlo uncertainty. Compared to discrete and continuous-energy ACE files (30 MB and 131 MB per temperature), the NeTS format is on the order of 200–300 kB for a continuous-temperature, interpolation-free representation of $S(α, β, T)$ and cross sections. NeTS-in-Serpent runtimes comparable with ACE look-up tables are achieved by scaling NeTS for high performance computing architectures with hybrid OpenMP + MPI parallelization. This work validates a novel, self-contained reactor physics framework for predictive cross sections, and demonstrates a general methodology for embedding modern machine learning libraries within existing neutronic analysis frameworks.
R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} (R=La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm) and RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} (R=La, Ce, Pr, Nd): Crystal structures with nets of Ir atoms
The crystal structures of the new ternary compounds Sm{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} and LaIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} were determined and refined on the basis of single-crystal X-ray diffraction data. They belong to the Ho{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} (oP52, Pmmn) and CeCo{sub 3}B{sub 2} (hP5, P6/mmm) structure types, respectively. The formation of isotypic compounds R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} with R=La, Ce, Pr, Nd, and RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} with R=Ce, Pr, Nd, was established by powder X-ray diffraction. The RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} (R=La, Ce, Pr, Nd) compounds exist only in as-cast samples and decompose during annealing at 800 Degree-Sign C with the formation of R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9}. The structure of Sm{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} contains intersecting, slightly puckered nets of Ir atoms (4{sup 4})(4{sup 3}.6){sub 2}(4.6{sup 2}){sub 2} and (4{sup 4}){sub 2}(4{sup 3}.6){sub 4}(4.6{sup 2}){sub 2} that are perpendicular to [0 1 1] as well as to [0 -1 1] and [0 0 1]. The Ir atoms are surrounded by Ge atoms that form tetrahedra or square pyramids (where the layers intersect). The Sm and additional Ir atoms (in trigonal-planar coordination) are situated in channels along [1 0 0] (short translation vector). In the structure of LaIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} the Ir atoms form planar Kagome nets (3.6.3.6) perpendicular to [0 0 1]. These nets alternate along the short translation vector with layers of La and Ge atoms. - Graphical abstract: The crystal structures contain the nets of Ir atoms as main structural motif: R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} contains intersecting slightly puckered nets of Ir atoms, whereas in the structure of RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} the Ir atoms form planar Kagome nets. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The Ir-rich ternary germanides R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} (R=La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm) and RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} (R=La, Ce, Pr, Nd) have been synthesized. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} compounds exist only in as-cast samples and decompose during annealing at 800 Degree-Sign C with the formation of R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The structure of R{sub 4}Ir{sub 13}Ge{sub 9} contains intersecting slightly puckered nets of Ir atoms. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In the structure of RIr{sub 3}Ge{sub 2} the Ir atoms form planar Kagome nets.
Army Net Zero. Water Balance and Roadmap Programmatic Summary
In 2011, the Department of the Army created the net zero initiative to advance the sustainability of the Army by managing natural resources with the goal of establishing net zero installations. The Net Zero concept is founded upon the idea of consuming natural resources responsibly based upon knowledge of long-term resource availability, creating a sustainable environment to support the installation’s long-term mission. The Army is pursuing net zero programs in energy, water, and waste. To kick off the net zero initiative, the Army selected installations to demonstrate the concept of net zero energy, water, and waste. This document is an overview of assessments performed at the eight net zero water installations. Each assessment included a water balance and a roadmap intended to provide pilot installations with a strategic approach to achieve net zero goals.
Enhancing Lifetime and Reducing Costs for Fish Diversion Netting Structures (Abstract)
This effort will focus on technology transfer and commercialization of antifouling coatings with an enthusiastic and engaged industrial team. Environmental requirements and operational demands call for a nontoxic coating/paint to prevent fouling on fish passage guidance netting at hydropower facilities. For example, one netting customer estimated the capital cost for compliance at $\$12$ million to $\$15$ million. This project will build partnerships between PNNL and private companies to optimize, demonstrate, mature, and commercialize a novel PNNL-developed technology that addresses this critical coating need of the hydropower industry. This effort will support modification of existing coatings for application to flexible netting structures. Industrial partners include commercial coating development specialist (Lorama), hydrophobic material manufacturer and paint developer (Dry Surface Technologies), aquatic applications specialists (Prometheus Innovations and River Connectivity Systems), and hydropower netting producer (Pacific Netting Products). Engagement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), two hydropower operators, throughout the project will provide expertise and field test sites that will provide crucial proof of real-world performance data (additional details provided in Teaming section). Taylor Shellfish Farms will provide organisms and fouling expertise as well as a perspective of potential broader impacts for the blue economy. Sample netting will demonstrate performance in a range of environments for key hydropower applications. PNNL will work with industrial partners to overcome commercialization barriers as well as resolving any manufacturing or regulatory issues. This Phase 1 effort is focused on technology optimization for application to fish passage guidance netting and technology validation as verified by independent testing (through USACE, BOR, Taylor Shellfish and Prometheus Innovations). Through this effort, SLIC will be demonstrated for netting applications at technology readiness level (TRL) 5. The field test data will allow optimization of SLIC formulation and performance which is key to enabling technology transfer of a mature proven technology to industry and production of a viable commercial product specifically focused for hydropower needs.
Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts
Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.