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At least 523 records · Page 29

Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.

Khazanov, George V.↗

Linking resource availability to pantropical forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance

Statement of purpose: Tropical cyclones are intensifying and occurring at higher latitudes in recent decades, but the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (pace of return to pre-disturbance reference values) of tropical forests to cyclones remains largely unexplored at the pantropical scale. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the role of soil resource availability (i.e., total soil phosphorus concentration) in mediating site-level forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclones pan-tropically. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2/day), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2/day), as well as concentrations (mg/g) across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan. The dataset zip file includes three data and two metadata files: - The compiled Litterfall Mass Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Mass.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - The compiled Litterfall Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Nutrients.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - Tropical cyclone track data compiled from HURDAT2 and IBTrACS databases and used as input in the HURRECON model (https://github.com/hurrecon-model/HurreconR) to generate wind data is provided in hurdat2-1851-2019-052520.txt. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Mass.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Mass.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Nutrients.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Nutrients.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind

This analysis used high resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios varied offshore wind penetrations and explored the differences of integrating offshore wind in the current grid and a potential future grid. This allowed us to determine how changes to the rest of the system and increasing penetrations of offshore wind affected our findings. We identified a number of key findings from the analysis, including that 2.6 GW of nameplate capacity offshore wind could be integrated into the Oregon power system with minimal curtailment due to transmission congestion or other factors. The range of system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$$65/MWh and $\$$85/MWh across the various scenarios considered. We also examined the influence offshore wind had on the trans-Cascade power flow, where we determined a strong correlation between offshore wind generation and reduction in flow across the Cascades. Finally, we also determined that offshore wind could serve between 84 - 93% of Coastal Oregon loads depending on the scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Based Modeling of Methane Flows Around Oil and Gas Equipment

Recent studies estimate that emissions from oil and gas production facilities contribute between 20 and 50% of the total methane ( CH 4 ) emitted in the US; therefore, quantifying and reducing these emissions are crucial for achieving climate goals. Methane quantification depends on both measuring methane concentrations and converting them to emissions through a modeling framework. Currently, simple atmospheric dispersion models are primarily used to quantify emissions and concentrations, but these estimates are highly uncertain when quantifying emissions from complex aerodynamic sources, such as oil and gas facilities. This investigation used a CFD modeling approach, which can account for aerodynamic complexity but has hitherto not been used to model methane concentrations downwind of a methane release of a known rate, and compared it against in situ measurements. High-time-resolution (1 Hz) methane concentration and meteorological data were measured during experiments conducted at the METEC on 21 March and 11 July 2024. The METEC site configuration, measured wind data, and controlled emission rates were used as input for the CONVERGE CFD model to model downwind CH 4 concentration. The modeling was carried out between 20 and 70 m, from two different points of release in two separate controlled-release experiments, one from a separator and another from a wellhead. In these experiments, we found that the CFD model could predict the CH 4 concentrations downwind of the release to a good degree. The model was evaluated on multiple metrics to assess its performance in estimating methane concentrations at typical fence line distances (∼30 m). These results help us to understand external flows and the ability of CFD models to predict downwind concentrations in aerodynamically complex environments.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Physical and biological processes in the North Atlantic during the First GARP Global Experiment

The seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton productivity in the North Atlantic is investigated using monthly mean pigment composites generated by the Nimbus 7 CZCS for the period of December 1978 through December 1979. Data on the temporal and spatial distributions of surface pigments are compared with quantities derived from the First GARP Global Experiment wind data set, Climate Analysis Center SST fields, concurrent hydrogarphic station data, and climatological mixed-layer depths and heat fluxes. Time series at 11 selected sites throughout the North Atlantic basin are used to illustrate the relation of phytoplankton biomass to local physical forcing.

Mcclain, Charles R.↗

Average motion, structure and orientation of the distant magnetotail determined from remote sensing of the edge of the plasma sheet boundary layer with E greater than 35 keV ions

We study gradients of the energetic ion intesity observed at the edge of the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) by the energetic ion anisotropy spectrometer (EPAS) on International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3). In particular, we have determined the velocity of the boundary relative to the spacecraft in the direction perpendicular to the tail axis and the angle which the boundary normal makes to the spacecraft spin axis for 1160 PSBL encounters at X(sub GSM) greater than -240 R(sub E). By asuming that, on average, the edge of the PSBL is parallel to the cross-tail current sheet, we are then able to determine a number of properties of the structure, orientation and motion of the deep geomagnetic tail. We conclude the following: (1) Most crossings of the edge of the PSBL are caused by transverse motuion of the entire tail induced by solar wind direction variations, although some are caused by reconfiguration of the tail due to geomagnetic activity. (2) The typical velocity of the PSBL (and hence of the tail) in the direction perpendicular to the tail axis is 50-85 km/s. (3) The average twist of the tail is near zero, with the edge of the PSBL (and by inference the cross-tail current sheet) lying parallel to the ecliptic plane (however, large twists are found in individual events and the distribution of twists is broad, with one standard deviation of approximately 50 deg. (4) The width of the distribution decreases with downtail distance. (5) The variation of the distributions with cross-tail position reveals that this decreas in width is most likely due to the edge of the PSBL being concave, or significantly flared at the tail flanks, in the near-Earth region. (6) During days on which the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has 'away' sector structure, the north lobe of the trail is twisted on average towards dawn by 7.0 +/-2.4 deg. (7) During days on which the IMF has 'toward' sector structure, the north lobe is tilted towards duskby 3.8 +/- 2.3. (8) A subset of events for which IMP 8 solar wind data are available show that, for southward IMF BH(sub z) the tail has a mean twist of -12.3 +/- 5.0 deg for IMF B(sub Y) greater than 0 and 5.5 +/- 3.8 deg for IMF B(sub Y) less than 0 (positive twist angles correspond to a tilt of the northern lobe towards dusk). (9) For northward IMF B(sub z) the tail has a twist of -23.9 +/- 5.0 deg for IMF B(sub Y) greater than 0 and 13.4 +/- 6.0 deg for IMF B(sub y) less than 0. Hence the tail appears more twisted on average for the IMF B(sub Z) northward case. (10) The distribution of tail twist is wider for lower levels of geomagnetic activity, indicating that the tail is able to twist more at lower levels of activity. (11) The data set reveals no evident effect of the earth's dipole wobble; tail orientation appears to be controlled by the solar wind and IMF, such that the GSE coordinate system may be appropriate for the study of field and plasma structures in the distant tail region.

Owen, C. J.↗

An extended structure-function model and its application to the analysis of solar wind intermittency

An extended structure-function model is developed by including the new effect in the p-model of Meneveau and Sreenivasan (1987a), i.e., that the averaged energy cascade rate changes with scale, a situation which has been found to prevail in non-fully-developed turbulence in the inner solar wind. This model is useful for the small-scale fluctuations in the inner heliosphere, where the turbulence is not fully developed and cannot be explained quantitatively by any of the previous intermittency turbulence models. With two model parameters, the intrinsic index of the energy spectrum, alpha and the fragmentation fraction p, the model can fit, for the first time, all the observed scaling exponents of the structure functions, which are calculated for time lags ranging from 81 seconds to 0.7 hours from the Helios solar wind data. From the cases we studied we can establish for p neither a clear radial evolution trend, nor a solar-wind-speed, or stream-structure dependence, or a systematic anisotropy for both the flow velocity and magnetic field component fluctuations. Generally, p has values between 0. 7 and 0.8. However, in some cases in low-speed wind p has somewhat higher values for the magnetic components, especially for the radial component. In high-speed wind, the inferred intrinsic spectral indices (alpha) of the velocity and magnetic field components are about equal, while the experimental spectral indices derived from the observed power spectra differ. The magnetic index is somewhat larger than the index of the velocity spectrum. For magnetic fluctuations in both high- and low-speed winds, the intrinsic exponent alpha has values which are near 1.5, while the observed spectral exponent has much higher values.

Tu, C.-Y.↗

Estimates of Power Plant NOx Emissions and Lifetimes from OMI NO2 Satellite Retrievals

Isolated power plants with well characterized emissions serve as an ideal test case of methods to estimate emissions using satellite data. In this study we evaluate the Exponentially-Modified Gaussian (EMG) method and the box model method based on mass balance for estimating known NOx emissions from satellite retrievals made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We consider 29 power plants in the USA which have large NOx plumes that do not overlap with other sources and which have emissions data from the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS). This enables us to identify constraints required by the methods, such as which wind data to use and how to calculate background values. We found that the lifetimes estimated by the methods are too short to be representative of the chemical lifetime. Instead, we introduce a separate lifetime parameter to account for the discrepancy between estimates using real data and those that theory would predict. In terms of emissions, the EMG method required averages from multiple years to give accurate results, whereas the box model method gave accurate results for individual ozone seasons.

Emissions inventory↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Influence of solar wind variability on geomagnetic activity

A statistical study of solar wind data from the Explorer 33 satellite shows that interplanetary magnetic field irregularities are enhanced in the interaction region where a fast solar wind stream overtakes a slower solar wind stream. Comparison with geomagnetic AE and ap indexes further shows that these interplanetary irregularities enhance the level of geomagnetic disturbances. Thus while substorm occurrence is highly correlated with the dawn-dusk component of the solar wind electric field, the amplitude of the substorms is an increasing function of the variance in the interplanetary field. This result can be interpreted as a capacitative effect of the magnetopause that allows a time-varying solar wind electric field to penetrate the magnetosphere more effectively than a static solar wind electric field.

Garrett, H. B.↗

Elemental abundances in corotating events

Large, persistent solar-wind streams in 1973 and 1974 produced corotating interaction regions which accelerated particles to energies of a few MeV/nucleon. The proton to helium ratio (H/He) was remarkably constant at a value (22 + or 5) equal to that in the solar wind (21 + or - 3), suggesting that particles were being accelerated directly out of the solar wind. Preliminary results were presented from a similar study approximately 11 years (i.e., one solar cycle) later. Corotating events have been identified by surveying the solar wind data, energetic particle time-histories and anisotropies. This data was all obtained from the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft. These events also show H/He ratios similar to that in the solar wind. It is flund that in these cases there is evidence for H/He ratios which are significantly different from that of the solar wind but which are consistent with the range of values found in solar flare events.

Vonrosenvinge, T. T.↗

Comparison of winds, waves, and turbulence as observed by airborne lidar, ground-based radars, and instrumented tower

On June 29, 1981, two ground-based Doppler radars, an airborne Doppler optical radar (lidar), an instrumented tower, and a rawinsonde were employed to collect wind data in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in central Oklahoma. The main objectives of this experiment were related to a comparison of wind estimates and the visualization of the three-dimensional eddy structure in the convective atmospheric boundary layer. Discrepancies in the mean wind and wind profile detected by the different sensing systems were explained as being caused by a Schuler resonance of the aircraft's inertial navigation system, which caused an erroneous component of the aircraft's ground-relative velocity vector to be subtracted from the lidar-measured radial velocities. It is concluded that NASA's airborne Doppler optical radar system is capable of measuring wind fields in clear air on a smaller scale than was previously available with fixed remote sensors.

Eilts, M. D.↗

Elemental abundances in corotating events

Large, persistent solar-wind streams in 1973 and 1974 produced corotating interaction regions which accelerated particles to energies of a few MeV/nucleon. The proton to helium ratio (H/He) reported was remarkably constant at a value (22 + or - 5) equal to that in the solar wind (32 + or - 3), suggesting that particles were being accelerated directly out of the solar wind. Preliminary results from a similar study approximately 11 years (i.e., one solar cycle) later are reported. Corotating events were identified by surveying the solar wind data, energetic particle time-histories and anisotropies. This data was all obtained from the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft. These events also show H/He ratios similar to that in the solar wind. In addition, other corotating events were examined at times when solar flare events could have injected particles into the corresponding corotating interaction regions. It was found that in these cases there is evidence for H/He ratios which are significantly different from that of the solar wind but which are consistent with the range of values found in solar flare events.

Vonrosenvinge, T. T.↗

Uninhabited Aerial System Drop-in Balloon-Borne Radiosonde Alternative for Lower Tropospheric Flights

Balloon-borne radiosonde sensors are a well characterized way of gathering data into the stratosphere; however, balloon launches have limitations such as the need to replace the balloon and sensors after each flight, as well the overall drift of the balloon over the course of the launch. Using sensors mounted on an uninhabited aerial system (UAS) allows for higher temporal-resolution vertical profiles in the lower troposphere and allows for full control of the flight profile of the sensors. This paper presents a drop-in solution for a balloon-borne radiosonde in which it is mounted on an uninhabited aerial system in lieu of a balloon with an additional connection to a 3D anemometer streaming atmospheric and wind data in near real-time to a ground station. This alternative platform for balloon-borne radiosondes has undergone extensive flight testing with the wind results being compared against a ground-based wind LiDAR for validation and the atmospheric results undergoing further data analysis against a wide variety of sensors for future validation. Indoor tests were also conducted and are discussed in order to determine the propeller’s influence on the anemometer. This alternative platform will allow for higher temporal and spatial resolution of atmospheric data collection in near-real time.

Tyler L. Willhite↗

Model Simulations of CO2 Transport Using Assimilated Meteorological Fields

The numerical simulation of CO2 transport (and other tracers such as CO, CH4, and biomass burning tracers) in the atmosphere is required to determine the fate of anthropogenic source gases. Estimation of the CO2 exchange between the ocean surface, the terrestrial biosphere, and the atmosphere is of first-order importance to understanding the global carbon cycle and the processes that are most crucial in determining the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Forward transport simulations have been conducted using two-dimensional, time-dependent grids of average surface fluxes (from TRANSCOM) and three-dimensional wind data from a prototype data assimilation system (FV-DAS) run by the Goddard Data Assimilation Office. The objective is to better understand the contribution of meteorological variability to changes in CO2 and other constituents, By accurately accounting for meteorological variability, through use of assimilated winds, we hope to better characterize the distribution of surface sources and sinks (and chemistry where applicable). With assimilated meteorology such chemistry/transport runs provide the basic framework to analyze existing (and proposed) measurement data on a point-by-point, real-time basis. We compare with measured CO2 concentration gradients on a daily, seasonal, regional, and interhemispheric basis to examine the consistency of sources, sinks, and transport formulation. We will also examine the inter-annual variability of atmospheric CO2 due to atmospheric circulation changes using longer runs with assimilated winds.

Kaea, S. R.↗

The 1977 surface ozone study of eastern Virginia

Data were collected by primarily twelve ground stations positioned throughout the eastern shore - tidewater area of Virginia and North Carolina. From an analysis of the ozone and wind data, certain trends were found such as the existence of a bias in ozone concentrations between stations and a linear correlation between average ozone concentration and latitude. In addition, higher ozone levels were found with surface winds from certain preferred directions at the various sites. The results, however, do not substantiate ozone or ozone precursor transport.

Williams, M. E.↗

Derivation of a New Smoke Emissions Inventory using Remote Sensing, and Its Implications for Near Real-Time Air Quality Applications

A new emissions inventory of particulate matter (PM) is being derived mainly from remote sensing data using fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, as well as wind data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis dataset, which spans the satellite era. This product is generated using a coefficient of emission, C(sub e), that has been produced on a 1x1 degree global grid such that, when it is multiplied with satellite measurements of FRP or its time-integrated equivalent fire radiative energy (FRE) retrieved over a given area and time period, the corresponding PM emissions are estimated. This methodology of using C(sub e) to derive PM emissions is relatively new and advantageous for near real-time air quality applications compared to current methods based on post-fire burned area that may not provide emissions in a timely manner. Furthermore, by using FRP to characterize a fire s output, it will represent better accuracy than the use of raw fire pixel counts, since fires in individual pixels can differ in size and strength by orders of magnitude, resulting in similar differences in emission rates. Here we will show examples of this effect and how this new emission inventory can properly account for the differing emission rates from fires of varying strengths. We also describe the characteristics of the new emissions inventory, and propose the process chain of incorporating it into models for air quality applications.

Ellison, Luke↗