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At least 523 records · Page 29

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wave-powered water pump for upwelling in aquaculture: Numerical model and ocean test

Wave-powered upwelling can increase the productivity and survivability of several aquaculture species. This enhancement is due to transporting cold, nutrient-rich ocean water, typically found lower in the water column, to the surface. Macroalgaes, like kelp, exhibit increased growth from these altered conditions. The University of New Hampshire’s (UNH) wave-powered water pump (wave pump) is a point absorber wave energy converter (WEC) that uses ocean waves to create relative motion between a spar buoy and a concentric float which drives an internal pump. A numerical model of the wave pump was developed using WEC-Sim to predict device performance in the ocean. Wave pump performance was evaluated during a five day ocean test near Appledore Island in Maine in March 2023, where volumetric flow rate, relative distance between spar and float, and wave conditions were measured. These data were then used for numerical model validation. The ocean deployment recorded the device’s performance in a variety of sea states, with average significant wave heights up to 0.7 m. The ocean test data were compared to the WEC-Sim numerical model of the device with favorable results. Average values of device stroke period, stroke height, and flow rate agreed between the ocean test and model data to within approximately 16 to 22%. Furthermore, the validated numerical model provides a valuable tool for improving the design and developing a commercial-scale, wave-powered water pump for use in aquaculture.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Toward a coordinated understanding of hydro‐biogeochemical root functions in tropical forests for application in vegetation models

Summary Tropical forest root characteristics and resource acquisition strategies are underrepresented in vegetation and global models, hampering the prediction of forest–climate feedbacks for these carbon‐rich ecosystems. Lowland tropical forests often have globally unique combinations of high taxonomic and functional biodiversity, rainfall seasonality, and strongly weathered infertile soils, giving rise to distinct patterns in root traits and functions compared with higher latitude ecosystems. We provide a roadmap for integrating recent advances in our understanding of tropical forest belowground function into vegetation models, focusing on water and nutrient acquisition. We offer comparisons of recent advances in empirical and model understanding of root characteristics that represent important functional processes in tropical forests. We focus on: (1) fine‐root strategies for soil resource exploration, (2) coupling and trade‐offs in fine‐root water vs nutrient acquisition, and (3) aboveground–belowground linkages in plant resource acquisition and use. We suggest avenues for representing these extremely diverse plant communities in computationally manageable and ecologically meaningful groups in models for linked aboveground–belowground hydro‐nutrient functions. Tropical forests are undergoing warming, shifting rainfall regimes, and exacerbation of soil nutrient scarcity caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 . The accurate model representation of tropical forest functions is crucial for understanding the interactions of this biome with the climate.

Plant Sciences↗

Exploring Hydrologic Model Process Connectivity at the Continental Scale Through an Information Theory Approach

Exploring water fluxes between hydrological model (HM) components is essential to assess and improve model realism. Many classical metrics for HM diagnosis rely solely on streamflow and hence provide limited insights into model performance across processes. This study applies an information theory measure known as “transfer entropy” (TE) to systematically quantify the transfer of information among major HM components. To test and demonstrate the benefits of TE, we use the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) model to mimic and compare four commonly used HM structures, VIC, PRMS, SACRAMENTO, and TOPMODEL, across 671 catchments spanning a variety of hydrologic regimes in the conterminous United States. We explore connections between HM components and catchment landscape characteristics (e.g., climate, topography, soil, and vegetation) and characterize their nonlinear associations using distance correlation and Spearman correlation coefficients. Our results indicate that while the information transferred from precipitation to runoff is similar across model structures (likely as a result of calibration), the information transferred among other components can vary significantly from a FUSE structure to another. We find that aridity, precipitation duration and frequency, snow fraction, mean elevation, forest area, and leaf area index are often significantly associated with TE between the main HM components. Here, we propose that the presence of meaningful nonlinear associations can be used to diagnose process representation in HMs. Our results highlight the necessity to enhance the conventional streamflow-only calibration approach for a more realistic representation of water dynamics in the models.

large-sample hydrology↗

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model-based Co-Simulation of Heat Pump Water Heater with Phase Change Materials Thermal Energy Storage

The study analysis the behavior of a new developed heat pump water heater technology which integrates a phase change materials storage with a standard heat pump water heater to maximize the performance parameters of the Unified Energy Factor (UEF) and First Hour Rating (FHR). A model-based control development co-simulation platform is developed to include equipment models, such as heat pump, standard water tank, phase change materials storage tank, and integrate them with control model to support controls design, analysis, verification, and validation. Simulation results are compared with lab test results to validate the accuracy of developed co-simulation platform

Sun, Jian↗

Resolving Anodic Current and Temperature Distributions in a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Water Electrolysis Cell Using a Pseudo-Two-Phase Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

Expanding upon our prior experimental work, we constructed a three-dimensional model of a polymer electrolyte membrane water electrolyzer using computational fluid dynamics. We applied the assumption of pseudo-two-phase flow, the flow of two phases with equal velocity. Experimental data were used to obtain parameters and to determine the conditions under which this model was valid. Anodic distributions of current density, temperature, liquid saturation, and relative humidity were obtained at various flow rates. The overall current density and temperature difference from inlet to outlet at the anode agreed strongly with experimental measurements under most circumstances. This verification allowed us to further examine the apparent gas coverage calculated from experimental and model temperature data. Results suggested a low liquid saturation and low relative humidity at the anode due to the consumption of liquid water and water vapor. However, we questioned the accuracy of the pseudo-two-phase assumption at low water feed rates. We concluded that the model was applicable to systems with liquid water feed rates greater than 0.6 ml min -1 cm -2 . Therefore, it is a fair screening method that can advise which operating conditions lead to excessive temperatures or drying at the anode, thereby promoting the longevity of the membrane and catalyst.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modeling diffusion and types I-V sorption of water vapor in heterogeneous systems

Here, a sorption and diffusion model is developed using a mobile-immobile decomposition of the vapor concentration. Henry’s mode represents the mobile species which diffuses through the solid, while Langmuir and pooling modes represent possible immobilization processes that cause nonlinearities in sorption capacity. The model can simulate the five classical sorption types and can incorporate additional dynamics compared to models based on thermodynamic equilibrium. Additionally, the framework allows for discontinuities in material properties encountered in multi-material systems. The resulting non-linear coupled equations are solved by employing a finite element method to discretize in space, and a backward Euler method to discretize in time. The discretized system of equations is solved via a Newton-type iteration scheme at each time-step. Four different materials are parameterized for the model, which are then used in examples to demonstrate the model’s ability to capture complex sorption processes in multi-material systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Double Deep Q-Networks for Optimizing Electricity Cost of a Water Heater

Electric water heaters represent 14% of the electricity consumption in the residential buildings and the cost associated with domestic water heating account for a good portion of the household expenses in the United States. In this context, intelligent control of water heaters gained a lot of research attention. In recent years, a significant number of intelligent water heater controllers, with various methods and intended uses, have been proposed. However, existing studies are mostly model-based approaches that require an accurate modelling of the water heater. Towards addressing this research gap, this paper presents a model-free reinforcement learning-based controller for a day-ahead price market. The controller aims to minimize the cost of domestic water heating while maintaining the user comfort. The results showed that the developed controller can help save energy cost while maintaining the temperatures within the desired comfort band.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

Effect of Inlet Throttling on Thermohydraulic Instability in a Large Scale Waterbased RCCS: A System-Level Analysis with RELAP5-3D

This paper presents results from system -level modeling of a water -based reactor cavity cooling system using RELAP5-3D. The computational model is benchmarked with experimental data from a half -scale RCCS test facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model prediction is first compared with a two-phase oscillatory baseline experimental case where mixed accuracy is obtained. The model shows reasonable prediction of mass flow rate, pressure, and temperature but significant overprediction of void fraction. The model prediction is then compared with a fault case where the inlet of the risers is gradually reduced using a throttling valve. As the valve is closed, the model is able to predict some major flow phenomena observed in the experiment such as the dampening of oscillations, the reintroduction of oscillations, as well as boiling, flashing, and geysering in the risers. However, the timeline of these events are not well captured by the model. The model is also used to investigate the evolution of flow regime in the chimney. This work highlights that the semiempirical constitutive relations used in RELAP-3D could have a strong influence on the accuracy of the model in two-phase oscillatory flows.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Fast Advective Water Flow through Nanochannels in Clay Interlayers: Implications for Moisture Transport in Soils and Unconventional Oil/Gas Production

Water flow in nanometer or sub-nanometer hydrophilic channels bears special importance in diverse fields of science and engineering. However, the nature of such water flow remains elusive. In this work, we report our molecular-modeling results on water flow in a sub-nanometer clay interlayer between two montmorillonite layers. We show that a fast advective flow can be induced by evaporation at one end of the interlayer channel, that is, a large suction pressure created by evaporation (~818 MPa) is able to drive the fast water flow through the channel (~0.88 m/s for a 46 Å-long channel). Scaled up for the pressure gradient to a 2 μm particle, the velocity of water is estimated to be about 95 μm/s, indicating that water can quickly flow through a μm-sized clay particle within seconds. The prediction seems to be confirmed by our thermogravimetric analysis of bentonite hydration and dehydration processes, which indicates that water transport at the early stage of the dehydration is a fast advective process, followed by a slow diffusion process. The possible occurrence of a fast advective water flow in clay interlayers prompts us to reassess water transport in a broad set of natural and engineered systems such as clay swelling/shrinking, moisture transport in soils, water uptake by plants, water imbibition/release in unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, and cap rock integrity of supercritical CO 2 storage.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Terry Turbopump Expanded Operating Band Modeling and Simulation Efforts in Fiscal Year 2020 - Progress Report

The Terry Turbine Expanded Operating Band Project is currently conducting testing at Texas A&M University as part of a revised experimental program meant to supplant previous full-scale testing plans under the headings of Milestone 5 and Milestone 6. In consultation with Sandia National Laboratories technical staff and with modeling and simulation support from the same, the hybrid Milestone 5&6 plan is moving forward with experiments aimed at addressing knowledge gaps regarding scale, working fluid, and turbopump self-regulation. Modeling and simulation efforts at Sandia National Laboratories in FY20 fell under the broad umbrella of Milestone 7 and consisted exclusively of MELCOR-related tasks aimed at: 1) Constructing/improving input models of Texas A&M University experiments, 2) Constructing a generic boiling water reactor input model according to best practices with systems-level Teny turbine capabilities, and 3) Adding code capability in order to leverage experimental data/findings, address bugs, and improve general code robustness Project impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic have fortunately been minimal thus far but are mentioned as necessary when discussing the hybrid Milestone 5&6 progress as well as the corresponding Milestone 7 modeling and simulation progress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing: insights from classical nucleation theory and particle-resolved simulations

Immersion freezing, initiated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in supercooled aqueous droplets, plays an important role in the formation of ice crystals within clouds. The efficiency of immersion freezing depends strongly on INP composition and, crucially, on the mixing state – how chemical species are distributed across the particle population. Here, we quantify the impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing using a combined theoretical and particle-resolved modeling approach. We derive analytical expressions for the frozen fraction of internally and externally mixed INP populations based on classical nucleation theory, showing that the frozen fraction is sensitive to whether ice-active species are present in all particles or only in a subset of the population. We introduce a multi-species immersion freezing scheme into the particle-resolved model PartMC, using the water activity-based immersion freezing model (ABIFM) to compute freezing probabilities for mixed-composition particles. To improve computational efficiency, we implement a Binned Tau-Leaping algorithm and demonstrate an order-of-magnitude speedup with minimal accuracy loss. Simulations reproduce the analytical trends in limiting cases and extend the analysis to more general aerosol populations, where mixing state continues to exert a substantial control on frozen fraction. Sensitivity analyses across particle size, species type, and cooling condition reveal that the mixing state effect is most pronounced when small amounts of highly efficient INPs are mixed with less efficient materials. These findings underscore the need to represent aerosol mixing state explicitly in models of heterogeneous ice nucleation to reduce uncertainty in cloud-phase partitioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗