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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

High-order fully implicit solver for all-speed fluid dynamics: AUSM ride from nearly incompressible variable-density flows to shock dynamics

We introduce a novel Newton–Krylov (NK)-based fully implicit algorithm for solving fluid flows in a wide range of flow conditions—from variable density nearly incompressible to supersonic shock dynamics. The key enabling feature of our all-speed solver is the ability to efficiently solve conservation laws by choosing a set of independent variables that produce a well-conditioned Jacobian matrix for the linear iterations of the global nonlinear iterative solver. In particular, instead of choosing to discretize the conservative variables (density, momentum, total energy), which is traditionally used in Eulerian high-speed compressible fluid dynamics, we demonstrate superior performance by discretizing the primitive variables—pressure–velocity–temperature in the very low-Mach flow limits or density–velocity–temperature/entropy in the shock dynamics range. Moreover, our method allows us to avoid direct inversion of the mass matrix in discrete time derivatives, which is usually an additional source for stiffness, especially pronounced when going to very high-order schemes with non-orthogonal basis functions. Here, we show robust solutions obtained for discontinuous finite element discretization up to seventh-order accuracy. Another important aspect of the solution algorithm is the Advection Upstream Splitting Method (AUSM), adopted to compute numerical fluxes within our reconstructed discontinuous Galerkin (rDG) spatial discretization scheme. The use of the low-Mach modification of the hyperbolic flux operator is found to be necessary for enabling robust simulations of very stiff liquids and metals for Mach numbers below M=10 -5 , which is well known to be very computationally challenging for compressible solvers. We demonstrate that our fully implicit rDG-NK solver with the AUSM + -up flux treatment produces efficient and high-resolution numerical solutions at all speeds, ranging from vanishing Mach numbers to transonic and supersonic, without substantial modifications of the solution procedures. (At high speed, we add limiting and use a simpler preconditioning of the Krylov solver.) Numerical examples include nearly incompressible constant-property flow past a backward-facing step with heat transfer, low-Mach variable-property channel flow of water at supercritical state, phase change and melt pool dynamics for laser spot welding and selective laser melting in additive manufacturing, and Mach 3 flow in a wind tunnel with a step.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microwave resonance enhanced CO 2 reduction using biochar

The conventional process for CO 2 conversion requires high energy and expensive catalysts, and shows poor product selectivity. Here, in this study, we address these challenges by investigating an environmentally friendly method for CO production through the variable frequency microwave-driven CO 2 Boudouard reaction over biochar. We hypothesized that tuning the microwave frequency to align with the dielectric properties of biochar, and thereby induce a resonance effect, could significantly enhance reaction efficiency. Experiments were conducted to explore the effect of microwave frequency on CO 2 conversion efficiency in the variable frequency microwave reactor operating within a frequency range of 2430–6000 MHz. Results reveal a significant resonance effect at 4225 MHz resulting in an outstanding CO 2 conversion of 96.3%, in sharp contrast to the complete absence of conversion observed at the conventional 2450 MHz. The resonance frequency not only facilitated exceptional conversion but also remarkably improved energy efficiency, yielding a productivity of 1427.5 µmol/kJ of CO. This represents a remarkable 474-fold increase compared to electrical heating. Furthermore, continuous microwave irradiation at this optimized frequency demonstrated remarkable stability and induced substantial enhancements in the pore structure and surface area of biochar. This innovative approach provides promising insights into sustainable and efficient CO production processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

Growth performance and stability of hybrid poplar clones in simultaneous tests on six sites

Growth, stability, and genotype x environment (GxE) interaction were investigated for 69 clones after five years at six sites in Minnesota. Fifty-three clones were Populus deltoides x Populus nigra (DxN) crosses, nine were P. deltoides x P. maximowiczi, ten other crosses. Most clones were previously screened for growth and disease resistance in Minnesota. Five-year diameter (DBH) and basal area (BA) at 1.38 m averaged 93.5 mm and 72.11 cm 2 , respectively, over the six sites. DBH site means varied from 109.0 to 79.4 mm. The fastest-growing clone BA was 64% and 49% larger than the mean of the two commercial standards and the mean of the population, respectively. Site, clone, and clone x site effects were highly significant in the ANOVA. The variance component for clone was over twice that of clone x site (GxE), indicating a relatively small reduction in genetic gain due to GxE. Clonal rank did not change between sites. GxE interaction was dominated by relative performance differences of clones on the different sites. Twenty-six percent of clones were stable (little change in growth between sites), 74% unstable. Stability coefficients of the unstable clones varied over a 99% range, indicating the population had high and variable phenotypic plasticity. Only 15% of clones were both stable and fast growing. Seven putatively superior clones, all DxN, were selected for future testing under near-commercial conditions. The results, if representative of other inter-specific Populus populations, indicate it will be difficult, and probably impractical, to reduce GxE with standard quantitative genetics methods in hybrid poplar tree improvement programs without sacrificing productivity gains.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Engineering design of a kW-scale continuous reactor-heat exchanger for high temperature discharge of particle-based thermochemical energy storage

This study investigates the theoretical design parameters and thermal performance of a kW-scale continuous oxidation reactor for high temperature (~1000 °C) thermochemical energy storage (TCES) applications. The concept comprises a counter-current particle-based system that includes a reaction zone with a heat exchanger to extract the heat produced from the oxidation reaction. Both above and below the hot reactive volume are sensible heat recuperation zones to enable the feed and removal of particles and oxidizing gas near ambient temperature during steady state operation. Two operation types for the reaction zone are studied, a fluidized bed reactor (FBR) and a moving bed reactor (MBR). The results of the parametric analysis suggest that the MBR requires a smaller volume per kW of heat produced, achieving power densities in excess of 2500 kW/m3 compared to ~ 900 kW/m 3 in the FBR. Additionally, the MBR achieves between 0.71 and 0.99 oxidation conversions compared to between 0.23 and 0.38 conversions in the FBR with the same volumes and flowrates. However, the FBR has the potential to maintain a uniform reactor temperature which can produce heat transfer fluid (HTF) outlet temperatures as high as the reactor temperature, i.e., ~1000 °C, whereas the MBR produces variable reactor temperatures that can create overheating zones and low HTF outlet temperatures (< 800 °C) depending on the operating conditions selected. Future work should aim at understanding the coupled fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, and thermochemical reaction for any given combination of reactor volume and contacting patterns. Here, these studies should be complemented by experimental work on particle-gas TCES reactors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collective Risk Ranking of Highway Segments on the Basis of Severity-Weighted Crash Rates

This study is intended to focus on the major factors affecting traffic crash rates and severity levels, in addition to identifying crash-prone locations (i.e., black spots) based on the two indicators. The available crash data for different road segments used for the analysis were obtained from the Washington state database provided by the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the years 2006 to 2011. A Random Forest (RF) classifier was used to predict the outcome level of crash severity, while crash rates were predicted by applying RF regressor. Certain features were selected for each model besides the abstraction of new features to check if there are unobserved correlations affecting the independent variables, such as accounting for the number and weight of crashes within 1 km2 area by implementing the Getis-Ord Gi∗ index. Moreover, to calculate the collective risk (CR) score, crash rates were adjusted to incorporate crash severity weights (cost per severity type) and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias via Empirical Bayes (EB) method. Finally, segments were ranked according to their CR score.

Li, Dawei↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2017

Additive Manufacturing of Fuel Injectors

Additive manufacturing (AM), also known as 3D-printing, has been shifting from a novelty prototyping paradigm to a legitimate manufacturing tool capable of creating components for highly complex engineered products. An emerging AM technology for producing metal parts is the laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process; however, industry manufacturing specifications and component design practices for L-PBF have not yet been established. Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar), an industrial gas turbine manufacturer, has been evaluating AM technology for development and production applications with the desire to enable accelerated product development cycle times, overall turbine efficiency improvements, and supply chain flexibility relative to conventional manufacturing processes (casting, brazing, welding). Accordingly, Solar teamed with EWI on a joint two-and-a-half-year project with the goal of developing a production L-PBF AM process capable of consistently producing high-nickel alloy material suitable for high temperature gas turbine engine fuel injector components. The project plan tasks were designed to understand the interaction of the process variables and their combined impact on the resultant AM material quality. The composition of the high-nickel alloy powders selected for this program met the conventional cast Hastelloy X compositional limits and were commercially available in different particle size distributions (PSD) from two suppliers. Solar produced all the test articles and both EWI and Solar shared responsibility for analyzing them. The effects of powder metal input stock, laser parameters, heat treatments, and post-finishing methods were evaluated. This process knowledge was then used to generate tensile, fatigue, and creep material properties data curves suitable for component design activities. The key process controls for ensuring consistent material properties were documented in AM powder and process specifications. The basic components of the project were: • Powder metal input stock: Powder characterization, dimensional accuracy, metallurgical characterization, and mechanical properties evaluation. • Process parameters: Laser parameter effects, post-printing heat-treatment development, mechanical properties evaluation, and post-finishing technique. • Material design curves: Room and elevated temperature tensiles, low cycle fatigue, and creep rupture properties curves generated. • AM specifications: Key metal powder characteristics, laser parameters, and heat-treatment controls identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of ASHRAE Guideline 36 Control Logic into Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s Flexible Research Platform (FRP)

This report presents the initial field test procedure and results for ASHRAE Guideline 36 control logic. The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) two-story Flexible Research Platform (FRP-2) was selected as a test building. The rooftop unit (RTU) system serves as the building’s primary cooling system, and each variable air volume (VAV) box with an electric reheat coil serves as the building’s heating system along with RTU gas furnace. In this study, the control for the RTU and VAV box adopted the practical control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. Each story of the FRP-2 building has 5 office zones (thermal zones), for a total of 10 zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Fractional Advection-Dispersion Equation (FADE) to Quantify Anomalous Transport in River Corridor over a Broad Spectrum of Scales: Theory and Applications

Fractional calculus-based differential equations were found by previous studies to be promising tools in simulating local-scale anomalous diffusion for pollutants transport in natural geological media (geomedia), but efficient models are still needed for simulating anomalous transport over a broad spectrum of scales. This study proposed a hierarchical framework of fractional advection-dispersion equations (FADEs) for modeling pollutants moving in the river corridor at a full spectrum of scales. Applications showed that the fixed-index FADE could model bed sediment and manganese transport in streams at the geomorphologic unit scale, whereas the variable-index FADE well fitted bedload snapshots at the reach scale with spatially varying indices. Further analyses revealed that the selection of the FADEs depended on the scale, type of the geomedium (i.e., riverbed, aquifer, or soil), and the type of available observation dataset (i.e., the tracer snapshot or breakthrough curve (BTC)). When the pollutant BTC was used, a single-index FADE with scale-dependent parameters could fit the data by upscaling anomalous transport without mapping the sub-grid, intermediate multi-index anomalous diffusion. Pollutant transport in geomedia, therefore, may exhibit complex anomalous scaling in space (and/or time), and the identification of the FADE’s index for the reach-scale anomalous transport, which links the geomorphologic unit and watershed scales, is the core for reliable applications of fractional calculus in hydrology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variable-focus magnetostatic lens

Variable-focus solenoidal lenses for charged particle beams with integrated emittance filtering are disclosed. The emittance may be controlled via selection of collimating irises. The focal length may be changed by altering the spacing between two permanent ring magnets.

Lewellen, John↗
DOE OSTI2018

Novel brain-expressed noncoding RNA, HSTR1, identified at a human-specific variable number tandem repeat locus with a human accelerated region

Highlights: • A novel noncoding RNA gene HSTR1 is expressed in human brain and testis. • The evolutionary accelerated region showed enhanced promoter activity in human. • The variable number tandem repeat in HSTR1 is associated with its RNA stability. The evolutionary conserved genomic sequences that have acquired significantly increased number of nucleotide substitutions specifically in the human lineage, called human accelerated regions (HARs), have been identified as candidate genomic regions that have contributed to the evolution of human-specific traits. A number of HARs were indeed shown to have novel enhancer activity and be associated with human-specific brain development and with cognition and social behavior. It is therefore of great importance to investigate the details of genomic function of each HAR to understand the roles of HARs as critical contributors to the genetic basis of human evolution. In this study, we identified a previously unannotated brain-expressed noncoding RNA gene, HSTR1, at a human-specific tandem repeat locus. Notably, the 5′ flanking sequence of HSTR1 showed the signature of HARs and the dramatic human-specific enhancement of promoter activity, providing the evidence of positive selection to increase the expression level of HSTR1 during human evolution. We also revealed that the tandem repeat number in HSTR1 was highly variable among individual alleles and affected the stability of HSTR1 RNA, suggesting variation in the activity of HSTR1 between human individuals. Our work thus provides a novel candidate gene that potentially contributed to the evolution of the human brain. It may also underpin some of the variation between human brains.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the sensitivity of land-atmosphere coupling strength to boundary and surface layer parameters in the WRF model over Amazon

Modeling tools can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations, but subject to uncertainties associated with parameters in model physical parameterizations. Different sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches may lead to different conclusions about the underlying sensitivities. In this study, we quantify simulation uncertainties related to parameter perturbations, and use different approaches to conduct parameter SA on the WRF model pertaining to L-A coupling strength for simulations over the Amazon region. A total of twenty parameters from the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the revised MM5 surface layer (SL) schemes were selected in this analysis. Three different SA methods, the Morris One-at-A-Time (MOAT) method, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, and the Sobol’ method, were employed to analyze seven WRF-simulated variables and five L-A coupling metrics. Results show that 1) parameter perturbations cause large simulation uncertainties which are comparable to those in the observations; 2) three different SA methods give consistent L-A coupling strength outcomes; 3) six out of the twenty parameters contribute 80%–95% of the total variance in the metrics analyzed, and first-order effects dominate over interaction effects; 4) the twelve variables/metrics of interest show similar sensitivity patterns to the selected parameters, which is consistent across all the methods used. Physical mechanisms for how the sensitive parameters act in determining the L-A coupling strength and associated variables also are illustrated. Our results will help quantifying L-A coupling strength and establishing a basis for parameter calibration over the Amazon region.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Melting rate correlation with batch properties and melter operating conditions during conversion of nuclear waste melter feeds to glasses

The rate of conversion of nuclear waste melter feed to glass is affected by the selection of melter feed materials and by melter design and operation. The melting rate correlation (MRC) is an equation that relates the glass production rate with two types of variables: (1) feed and melt properties: conversion heat, cold-cap bottom temperature, and glass melt viscosity; and (2) melter design and operation parameters: melter geometry, melter operating temperature, and gas bubbling rate. The MRC shows good agreement for an extended melting-rate data set of high-level waste (HLW) melter feeds and a data set generated for low-activity waste (LAW) melter feeds. Laboratory observation of heated melter feed samples is often used to assess the cold-cap bottom temperature of HLW melter feeds (moderately foaming feeds), but this technique appears inadequate for LAW melter feeds (vigorously foaming feeds). For LAW feeds, an adequate assessment of the cold-cap bottom temperature was achieved using evolved gas analysis, which allows identification of the collapse of primary foam for oxidized feeds. This assessment shows that the cold-cap bottom temperature for vigorously foaming LAW feeds is higher than that for moderately foaming HLW feeds. When the results of MRC are compared, LAW feeds are generally less sensitive to the bubbling rate and melt viscosity, and more sensitive to the cold-cap bottom temperature than HLW feeds. The MRC qualifies as a promising tool to support the selection of melter feed materials and melter operating conditions, which is determined from expensive independent scaled melter experiments, and sophisticated mathematical models.

Lee, Seung Min↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grain structure and texture selection regimes in metal powder bed fusion

Additive manufacturing (AM) offers opportunities to produce complex part geometries not possible with conventional processing and in some cases even improve part performance. However, adoption has been slowed by difficulties assessing microstructure variability and there is no straightforward approach to relate processing to grain structure characteristics. In this study, datasets from AdditiveFOAM heat transport simulations of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) are used to drive ExaCA simulations of grain structure. The GPU utilization of ExaCA and an algorithmic update for modeling melt pool overlap region solidification enabled rapid and parallel simulation across a wider range of process conditions than previously explored with cellular automata-based solidification models. A texture selection angle $θ_s$ is defined based on melt pool overlap geometry, and the range of $θ_s$ over which a commonly observed texture transition occurs in characterized AM builds was well-reproduced by ExaCA simulations over a wide range of melt pool shape, hatch spacing, and layer height. ExaCA simulations with 90 degree rotation of the scan direction on every other layer reproduced a number of trends from the AM literature including grain refinement, the dominance of layers with larger melt pools on the final grain structure, and the weakening or strengthening of texture depending on odd and even layer melt pool overlap geometry. EBSD data from a benchmark AM part is used to validate the simulated mechanism of a layer rotation-induced texture strengthening effect. Importantly, these results expand the understanding of the mechanisms for texture selection in alloys with cubic crystal symmetry and offer an approach to easily evaluate processing conditions. With this new understanding, these modeling tools will enable anticipation of previously unexpected variations in grain structure and target specific microstructures and properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High temperature air oxidation behavior of Hastelloy X processed by Electron Beam Melting (EBM) and Selective Laser Melting (SLM)

The microstructure and oxidation behavior of Laser Beam Melted, Electron Beam Melted and wrought Hastelloy X were studied at 950 °C in dry air, 50 h cycles, up to 1000 h. The variability of processing parameters and powder compositions strongly impacted the oxidation and spallation behavior. Finally, the alloys with high Mn and Si were associated with higher oxidation rates, finer Cr 2 O 3 grain microstructure and increased spallation was observed for the alloys with large elongated grain microstructures (aspect ratio of 10 ± 3).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of the moderators in the STS preliminary design

This report details the results for an optimization of the dimensions of the moderators in the preliminary design of the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station (STS). This study uses the optimization algorithms of Dakota and an unstructured mesh model for the moderators in MCNP. More details on the unstructured mesh model and the automated mesh generation can be found in [3]. Parallel to this effort, the same moderator geometries have been optimized using a constructive solid geometry (CSG) MCNP model. More details on this model and its results can be found in [4]. Three optimal designs are selected for each moderator: one that is optimized for maximum peak brightness, one for maximum time-integrated brightness, and one for a combination of peak and time-integrated brightness. The backbone of the optimization work flow is provided by Dakota. For each set of design parameters requested by Dakota, a new solid geometry is automatically built in Creo and SpaceClaim, and subsequently exported to Attila4MC to generate an unstructured mesh geometry for MCNP. After the MCNP calculation is finished, the objective function (e.g., brightness metric) is returned to Dakota. After the new design has been evaluated, a result-file is written, and Dakota proposes the next set of design parameters to be evaluated. The loop continues until a specified convergence criterion has been met. The design parameters of the cylindrical (upper) moderator include the hydrogen radius, the premoderator thickness (top, bottom, radial), the beryllium radius and the horizontal position of the moderator. The crucial design choice is the hydrogen radius. A radius of 62 mm is shown to provide the maximum time-integrated brightness. The maximum peak brightness occurs with a radius of 40 mm. A combined (middle) design, which balances peak and time-integrated brightnesses, is obtained with a hydrogen radius of 50 mm. The premoderator thicknesses and the beryllium radius are slightly larger in the design optimized for time-integrated brightness than in the design optimized for peak brightness. The sensitivity to these two parameters is relatively small close to the optimal configurations. The hydrogen vessel and vacuum vessel wall thicknesses are dependent on the radius of the liquid hydrogen due to structural integrity requirements. The increased wall thicknesses for larger vessels significantly penalize the time-integrated brightness, with the maximum obtainable value reduced by more than 10% relative to earlier studies which used fixed vessel wall thicknesses. The impact of the variable wall thicknesses is much less for the peak brightness and combined brightness designs. The design parameters of the tube (lower) moderator selected for the optimization are the tube length, the annular premoderator thickness, the beryllium radius and the horizontal position of the moderator. The tube length is the crucial parameter and is chosen large (210 mm) and small (125 mm) in the designs optimized for time-integrated and peak brightness respectively. A combined optimal design has a tube length of 170 mm. The premoderator thickness and the beryllium radius are chosen larger in the design optimized for time-integrated brightness.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots

The cultivation of sterile giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus, M × g) for bioenergy and bioproducts has expanded into grain-cropped land in the United States (US) as local markets developed for this high-yielding perennial grass (10–30 Mg DM ha −1 ). However, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variability in yield within US Corn Belt fields, along with impacts on economic return and sustainable land management, is poorly understood. This study established a diagnostic model relating remote sensing-derived vegetation indices to ground truth data from 105 hand-harvested stem biomass samples, which were strategically selected to represent the full range of vegetation index observations. The high-resolution satellite-sensed vegetation indices captured > 90% of the yield variation measured within fields. This model was then used to predict yield variability and assess economic performance across four of the first commercial M × g fields in the Corn Belt state of Iowa, US. Significant spatial variability in biomass dry matter (DM) yields (9.3–18.1 Mg DM ha −1 ) and net profits ($\$$83 to $\$$1211.5 ha −1 ) was observed. All fields were profitable in all site-years. When low profit occurred, it was explained by limited management experience of the crop in Iowa. The breakeven yield at a selling price of $\$$130 Mg −1 varied from 9.0–12.1 Mg ha −1 at 15% moisture content (7.6–10.3 Mg DM ha −1 ). Breakeven prices ranged from $\$$73 to $\$$122.4 Mg −1 , matching ranges used in the Department of Energy Billion Ton Report (US Department of Energy, 2023). Notably, M × g yield and profits were commensurate with grain crops particularly with favorable precipitation. This study provides insight on the M × g management “learning curve”, performance on marginal land and in drought conditions, and demonstrates that addressing yield gaps, reducing costs, and implementing precision agriculture strategies can enhance profitability. These findings emphasize the value of remote sensing technologies in guiding sustainable and competitive commercial-scale M × g production.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗