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At least 523 records · Page 29

A direct numerical simulation study of the dilution tolerance of propane combustion under spark-ignition engine conditions

Modern spark ignition internal combustion (IC) engines rely on highly diluted fuel-air mixtures to achieve high brake thermal efficiencies. To support this, new engine designs have introduced high stroke-to-bore ratios and cylinder head designs that promote high tumble flow and turbulence intensities. However, mixture dilution through exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is limited by combustion instabilities manifested in the form of cycle-to-cycle variability. Propane has been observed to have superior EGR dilution tolerance than gasoline, which makes it a very competitive low-carbon fuel for the new IC engines without sacrificing efficiency. Two-dimensional direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed with detailed chemistry to study and contrast the effect of turbulence intensity and dilution on propane and iso-octane premixed flames at high pressure conditions similar to those in-cylinder. A new reduced mechanism for propane consisting of 53 transported species and 17 quasi-steady state species is developed based on a previously published mechanism and used in these simulations. Three levels of turbulence intensity and two levels of exhaust gas dilution are chosen based on conditions relevant to IC engine operation. The DNS results are analyzed based on the evolution of the flame surface area and the statistics of its driving terms, which are found to be similar for both fuels when there is no dilution but considerably different under high dilution. The analysis of the DNS data provides fundamental insights into the underlying mechanisms for improved stability under dilution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Hierarchy of Global Ocean Models Coupled to CESM1

Abstract We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed‐layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three‐dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed‐layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid‐latitude westerly jet and of the Inter‐tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea‐ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed‐layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Prediction of Tritium‐Helium Groundwater Ages in the Central Valley, California, USA

Abstract Groundwater ages provides insight into recharge rates, flow velocities, and vulnerability to contaminants. The ability to predict groundwater ages based on more accessible parameters via Machine Learning (ML) would advance our ability to guide sustainable management of groundwater resources. In this study, ML models were trained and tested on a large data set of tritium concentrations and tritium‐helium groundwater ages from the California Central Valley, a large groundwater basin with complex land use, irrigation, and water management practices. The ML models were trained on 63 features, including location, well construction information, landscape characteristics, and climate variables, water chemistry, and stable isotopes. The Bagging regressor method can accurately classify (F1‐score = 0.91) groundwater samples as either modern or pre‐modern whereas the accuracy of the ML prediction of continuous tritium‐helium groundwater ages is limited and explains only of the variability in this data set. In general, ML groundwater age prediction relies mostly on features related to (a) the source of groundwater recharge, (b) contaminant history, (c) aquifer materials, (d) well construction, and (e) geochemical reactions along flow paths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous organic synthesis for redox flow batteries via flexible batch Bayesian optimization

Traditional trial-and-error methods for materials discovery are inefficient to meet the urgent demands posed by the rapid progression of climate change. This urgency has driven the increasing interest in integrating robotics and machine learning into materials research to accelerate experimental learning. However, idealized decision-making frameworks to achieve maximum sampling efficiency are not always compatible with high-throughput experimental workflows inside a laboratory. For multi-step chemical processes, differences in hardware capacities can complicate the digital framework by introducing constraints on the maximum number of samples in each step of the experiment, hence causing varying batch sizes in variable selection within the same batch. Therefore, designing flexible sampling algorithms is necessary to accommodate the multi-step synthesis with practical constraints unique to each high-throughput workflow. In this work, we designed and employed three strategies on a high-throughput robotic platform to optimize the sulfonation reaction of redox-active molecules used in flow batteries. Our strategies adapt to the multi-step experimental workflow, where their formulation and heating steps are separate, causing varying batch size requirements. By strategically sampling using clustering and mixed-variable batch Bayesian optimization, we were able to iteratively identify optimal conditions that maximize the yields. Our work presents a flexible approach that allows tailoring the machine learning decision-making to suit the practical constraints in individual high-throughput experimental platforms, followed by performing resource-efficient yield optimization using available open-source Python libraries.

Tamura, Clara [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (U↗

Carbon Capture through Membranes - Leveraging Multiphysics Modeling, Dimensional Analysis and Machine Learning to Scale up and Optimize Devices and Processes for Decarbonization

We study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed). Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

Modeling and Scaling up of Membrane Modules Leveraging Dimensional Analysis

In the current analysis, we study the separation performance using membrane modules through dimensional analysis (DA). We formulate the main process equations to identify relevant dimensionless numbers inherent in the physics. In particular, we identify that the critical step in the separation process is mass transfer through the selective layer. Remarkably, the dimensionless feed flow (DFfeed) emerges as a crucial factor in describing this process. Not only does DFfeed directly appear in the governing equations, but it also holds a physical significance associated with the time scales for the mass transfer across the feed side and through the selective layer. Regarding the output performance variables, we consider the recovery, stage cut, productivity and purity. In this context, we profit from experimental data and CFD simulations to evaluate the separation performance of the modules when varying the input flowrate, the scale of the module, and the CO2 permeance. These datasets enable us to establish correlations between performance metrics and the dimensionless feed flow. Using simple power functions of DFfeed, we obtain R2 coefficients exceeding 0.99, indicating the accuracy of the correlations built in the present work. In the future, we wish to use DA to understand key transport mechanisms, predict and control module performance, and challenge the universality of these findings by testing various gas separations across different membrane modules beyond our case study.

Pedrozo, Hector A.↗

High-fidelity Experiments of Turbulent Buoyant Jets from Simultaneous Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence

Accurate models of turbulent buoyant flows are essential for the design of nuclear reactors thermal hydraulics and passive safety systems. However, available models fail to fully capture the physics of turbulent mixing when buoyancy becomes predominant with respect to momentum. Therefore, high-fidelity experiments of well-controlled fundamental flows are needed to develop and validate more accurate models. We performed experiments of positive and negative turbulent buoyant jets, both in uniform and stratified environments, with the aim of understanding the thermal hydraulics of turbulent mixing with variable density and providing high-fidelity data for the development and validation of turbulence models. Non-intrusive, simultaneous Particle Image Velocimetry and Laser Induced Fluorescence measurements were carried out to acquire instantaneous velocity and concentration fields on a vertical section parallel to the axis of a jet in the self-similar region. The Refractive Index Matching method was applied to measure high-resolution buoyant jets with up to 8.6% density difference. These data are free of the typical errors that characterize optical measurements of buoyancy driven flows (e.g., natural and mixed convection) where the refractive index of the fluid is inhomogeneous throughout the measurement domain. Turbulent statistics and entrainment of buoyant jets in uniform and stratified environments are presented. These data are compared with non-buoyant jets in uniform environment, as a reference to investigate the effects of buoyancy and stratification on turbulent mixing. The results will be used for the assessment of current turbulence models and as basis for the development of a new one that captures turbulent mixing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Temporal Variability of Emissions Revealed by Continuous, Long-Term Monitoring of an Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility

Temporal variability contributes to uncertainty in inventories of methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain. Extrapolation of instantaneous, “snapshot-in-time” measurements, for example, can miss temporal intermittency and confound bottom-up/top-down comparisons. Importantly, no continuous long-term datasets record emission variability from underground natural gas storage facilities despite substantial contributions to sector-wide emissions. We present 11 months of continuous observations on a section of a storage site using dual-frequency comb spectroscopy (DCS observing system) and aircraft measurements. Here, we find high emission variability and a skewed distribution in which the 10% highest 3 h emission periods observed by the continuous DCS observing system comprise 41% of the total observed 3-hourly emissions. Monthly emission rates differ by >12×, and 3-hourly rates vary by 17× in 24 h. We find links to the operating phase of the facility—emission rates, including as a percentage of the total gas flow rate, are significantly higher during periods of injection compared to those of withdrawal. We find that if a high frequency of aircraft flights can occur, then the ground- and aircraft-based approaches show excellent agreement in emission distributions. A better understanding of emission variability at underground natural gas storage sites will improve inventories and models of methane emissions and clarify pathways toward mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Fidelity Velocity and Concentration Measurements of Turbulent Buoyant Jets

Accurate models of turbulent buoyant flows are essential for the design of the cooling circuit of nuclear reactors and passive safety systems. However, available models fail to fully capture the physics of turbulent mixing when buoyancy becomes predominant with respect to momentum. Therefore, high-fidelity experiments of well-controlled fundamental flows are needed to develop and validate more accurate models. We analyze experiments of positive and negative turbulent buoyant jets, both in uniform and stratified environments, with the aim of understanding the thermal hydraulics of turbulent mixing with variable density and providing high-fidelity data for the development and validation of turbulence models. Non-intrusive, simultaneous particle image velocimetry and laser-induced fluorescence measurements were carried out to acquire instantaneous velocity and concentration fields on a vertical section parallel to the axis of a jet in the self-similar region. The refractive index matching method was applied to measure high-resolution buoyant jets with up to 8.6% density difference. These data are free of the typical errors that characterize optical measurements of buoyancy-driven flows (e.g. natural and mixed convection) where the refractive index of the fluid is inhomogeneous throughout the measurement domain. Turbulent statistics and entrainment of buoyant jets in uniform and stratified environments are presented. These data are compared with non-buoyant jets in a uniform environment, as a reference to investigate the effects of buoyancy and stratification on turbulent mixing. The results will be used for the assessment of current turbulence models and as a basis for the development of a new model that captures turbulent mixing.

laser induced fluorescence↗

Optimization of well design and CO 2 injection strategy for risk reduction in Class VI geological carbon sequestration wells

The safety and durability of Class VI wells are critical for geological carbon sequestration (GCS). However, current GCS operations face unique challenges: unlike traditional Class II wells, Class VI CO 2 injection wells operate at rates up to 100 times higher, dramatically increasing the risk of wellbore leakage and structural compromise due to severe temperature drops and associated mechanical stresses. Despite existing guidelines on material selection, there remains a substantial gap in understanding how rapid CO 2 injection rates, low surface temperatures, and variable reservoir conditions interact to threaten long-term well integrity. This study presents a comprehensive, original workflow integrating advanced analytical and numerical models for both well flow and well integrity analysis. By systematically simulating a wide range of field-relevant scenarios—including variations in injection rate, CO 2 temperature, and reservoir pressure—this work provides the first cross-validated assessment of cooling effects on wellbore. The results reveal that extreme temperature drops, up to 60 °C, can occur under high injection rates, particularly in depleted reservoirs, significantly increasing the risk of cement failure. Building on these insights, the study proposes innovative, practical well design and operational strategies, including ductile cement formulations, pre-stressing techniques, advanced insulation coatings, and proactive management of injection rates. The safety of Class VI well extends beyond simply using CO 2 resistant materials. Cement materials should possess optimal thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical properties for effective performance. This work provides a scientific basis for optimizing Class VI well designs, with direct benefits for minimizing environmental risk, lowering operational costs, and enhancing the long-term reliability of GCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Intrinsic 150‐Day Periodicity of the Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract The variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical large‐scale circulation is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whose timescale is extensively used as a key metric in evaluating state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Past observational and theoretical studies suggest that the SAM lacks any internally generated (intrinsic) periodicity. Here, we show, using observations and a climate model hierarchy, that the SAM has an intrinsic 150‐day periodicity. This periodicity is robustly detectable in the power spectra and principal oscillation patterns (aka dynamical mode decomposition) of the zonal‐mean circulation, and in hemispheric‐scale precipitation and ocean surface wind stress. The 150‐day period is consistent with the predictions of a new reduced‐order model for the SAM, which suggests that this periodicity is associated with a complex interaction of turbulent eddies and zonal wind anomalies, as the latter propagate from low to high latitudes. These findings present a rare example of periodic oscillations arising from the internal dynamics of the extratropical turbulent circulations. Based on these findings, we further propose a new metric for evaluating climate models, and show that some of the previously reported shortcomings and improvements in simulating SAM's variability connect to the models' ability in reproducing this periodicity. We argue that this periodicity should be considered in evaluating climate models and understanding the past, current, and projected Southern Hemisphere climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multifidelity validation of digital surrogates using variable-density turbulent mixing models

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable-density (Atwood = 0.22), compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds averaged NavierStokes and large-eddy simulations) have been validated extensively with more canonical flows in previous studies, here the present approach offers novelty in the complexity of the geometry, the ensemble-based validation, and the uniformity of the computational framework on which the models are tested. Moreover, all experimental and computational tasks were completed by the authors which has led to a tightly coupled experimental configuration with its “digital twin.” The experimental divergent-shock-tube facility and its data acquisition methods are described and replicated in simulation space. A 2D Euler model which neglects the turbulent mixing at the interface is optimized to experimental data using a Gaussian process. This model then serves as the basis for both the 2D RANS and 3D LES studies that make comparisons to the mixing-layer data from the experiment. A relatively simple RANS model is shown to produce good agreement with experimental data only at late flow development times. The LES ensembles generally show good agreement with experimental data but display sensitivity to the characterization of initial conditions. Resolution-dependent behavior is also observed for certain higher-order statistics of interest. Overall, the LES model successfully captures the effects of divergent geometry, compressibility, and combined nonlinear instabilities inherent to the problem. The successful prediction of mixing width and its growth rate highlight the existence of three distinct regimes in the development of the instability, each with similarities to previously studied instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Interior-Point Solver for Optimal Power Flow Problem Considering Distributed FACTS Devices

In this paper, we propose an AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) model considering distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices, in which the reactance of D-FACTS equipped lines are introduced as decision variables. This is motivated by increasing interests in using D-FACTS devices to address system operational and cyber-security concerns. First, D-FACTS devices can be incorporated in real-time operations for economic benefits such as managing power congestions and reducing system losses. Second, D-FACTS devices can be utilized by moving target defense (MTD), an emerging concept against cyber-attacks, to prevent attackers from knowing true system configurations. Therefore, system operators can use the proposed ACOPF model to achieve economic benefits and provide the setpoints of D-FACTS devices for MTD at the same time. In addition, we rigorously derive the gradient and Hessian matrices of the objective function and constraints, which are further used to build an interior-point solver of the proposed ACOPF. Numerical results on the IEEE 118-bus transmission system show the validity of the proposed ACOPF model as well as the efficacy of the interior-point solver in minimizing system losses and generation costs.

Liu, Bo↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript.Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (10s of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow, and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) -- Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30% of the watershed area). However, the 4 km resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications on model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of spatial and temporal resolution of gridded meteorological forcing on watershed hydrological responses

Abstract. Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (tens of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) – Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30 % of the watershed area). However, the 4 km-resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using the temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), and sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications for model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hierarchy of global ocean models coupled to CESM1

We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed-layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three-dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea-ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed-layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hardware Aware Mitigation of Timing Side-Channel Vulnerabilities in Critical Infrastructure Software

Program runtime/timing attacks exploit variations in a program’s execution times to extract sensitive information from the program (e.g. encryption keys, sensitive variable data, intellectual property). State-of-the-art solutions to runtime sidechannel attacks attempt to balance the execution time of the sensitive code for different control flow paths to eliminate the timing leakage. However, during the mitigation process, most techniques do not consider the underlying hardware/device on which the target program is supposed to run on. This can lead to over-fixing (unnecessary extra operations), under-fixing (not solving the imbalance properly), and even failures. We propose DISARM, a joint hardware-software methodology (unlike any existing solution) for mitigating runtime side-channel vulnerabilities that utilizes timing values from real embedded devices to generate targeted software fixes. We implement DISARM to support C/C++/Java source codes and validate it across 22 standard benchmarks. DISARM outperforms state-of-the-art solutions such as PENDULUM and DifFuzzAR in terms of execution time overhead (up to −46%), code size overhead (up to −10%), and correctness (no failures) on five different embedded/edge devices.

Suha, Tasneem [University of Maine]↗

Hardness Prediction by Incorporating Heat Transfer and Molten Pool Fluid Flow in a Multi-pass, Multi-layer Weld for Onsite Repair of Grade 91 steel

Introduction: In the current fleet of fossil-fired power plants, creep strength enhanced ferritic steels (CSEF) are used to sustain the harsh service conditions. Enhanced properties of Grade 91 steel result from tempered martensite with a fine distribution of MX and M23C6 carbides. Grade 91 steel is subjected to onsite welding repair to remedy their degradation due to extreme service condition. Knowledge of weld repairability of these steels, such as as-welded hardness distribution, is essential to establishing sound repair procedures. Experimental trial and error tests can consume a lot of time as many welding variables need to be studied. For numerical modelling, most of the multi-pass multi-layer models are based on finite element method, which are limited to solve the heat conduction equation and ignore convective heat transfer due to melt flow. Moreover, the mesh has to be pre-built based on a known or assumed weld cross-section geometry. These finite element based models thus have limited predictive capability as defects are not considered and nugget size are pre-assumed. This research aims at developing a thermal and microstructure evolution model incorporating molten pool dynamics in a multi-pass multi-layer material deposition to predict the as-welded hardness distribution. Technical Approach: All the thermal, physical, and metallurgical properties of Grade 91 as a function of temperature are collected from the literature and inputted into the thermo-fluid model based on Flow-3D, a computational fluid dynamics software. A multi-pass, multi-layer material deposition is simulated where the melting of filler wire into the molten pool is directly considered based on the volume of fluid (VOF) method. The flow behaviour of the molten pool is used to understand the formation of deposition geometry and defects. The temperature profiles during the multi-pass, multi-layer welding are calculated. The results computed using the new model are compared against the experimental data of fusion zone geometry and thermal cycles. Hardness prediction in the heat-affected zone (HAZ) are made using Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) equation for solid-state phase transformation kinetics. The JMA parameters are extracted from the experimental data available in the literature. For comparison, a standard finite element heat conduction model is also developed to predict the thermal cycles and hardness distribution in the multi-pass, multi-layer weld. Expected Result: Results obtained using the molten pool dynamic simulation versus the finite element heat conduction model are compared. Specifically, the effects of convective heat transfer on the accuracy of the calculated thermal history, bead shape and size, and HAZ hardness distribution are examined.

Modeling, Grade 91 steel, Multi-pass multi-layer d↗