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At least 523 records · Page 29

Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool

The Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been used in the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office for over 25 years to estimate risk due to uncontrolled reentry of spacecraft and rocket bodies. Development over the last 3 years has included: a major change to the treatment of carbon fiber- and glass fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRP and GFRP, respectively); an updated atmospheric model; a new model for computing casualty area around an impacting debris object; and a newly-implemented scheme to determine the breakup altitude of a reentry object. Software also was written to automatically perform parameter sweeps in ORSAT to allow for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for components with borderline demisability. These updates have improved the speed and fidelity of the reentry analysis performed using ORSAT, and have allowed for improved engineering understanding by estimating the uncertainty for each component’s survivability. A statistical model for initial conditions captures the latitude bias in population density, a large improvement over the previous inclination-based latitude-averaged models. A sample spacecraft has been analyzed with standard techniques using ORSAT 6.2.1 and again using all the updated models; we will demonstrate the variation in the total debris casualty area and overall expectation of casualty.

Ostrom, C.↗

Spectral Effects in Albedo and Rearside Irradiance Measurment for Bifacial Performance Estimation: Preprint

Albedo data are essential for accurate prediction of bifacial PV module performance. However, spectral response mismatch between PV modules and irradiance sensors used in albedometers can limit the accuracy of performance predictions. In order to provide quantitative assessment of this effect, we investigate via simulation the differences in spectrally responsive albedo measured with thermopile pyranometers and crystallinesilicon PV reference cells in comparison to a representative crystalline-silicon bifacial PV module for nine different representative ground surface materials. Calculations are performed using simulated solar spectra together with catalogued spectral reflectivity data distributed with the SMARTS simulation software. For the specific materials considered, the results show that albedo measurement using thermopile pyranometers could over or under-estimate the ground-reflected radiation usable by a bifacial PV module by up to 10%, versus only approximately 4% total range of variation for a PV reference cell.

Albedo↗

A Methodology for Simulating Supercritical CO2 Heat Transfer Experiments Using Machine Learning Models

To support the growth of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles in the energy industry, this study seeks to train a machine learning model to mirror experimental data to predict new heat transfer data. To do this experimental data was amassed, one preliminary set comprised of 16 test results, and an expanded version comprised of 38 test results. With the goal of predicting experimental apparatus temperatures and pressures, several iterations of models were tested investigating the impact of model hyper-parameters, data inclusion, and data pre-processing on model performance. A total of 15 variations cumulatively of Gaussian Process Regressors, Gradient Boosting Regressors, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were trained and validated on the preliminary set, and the best algorithm of each class was re-trained on the expanded set. These were compared based on test/train R^2 , test/train mean absolute error (MAE), and validation MAE, to identify the successfulness of these models. It was shown temperatures could be predicted within just a few degrees, showing the potential of this approach. Future research has been identified with approaches to improve pressure and temperature predictions going forward.

Grabowski, Owen↗

Estimating 11-year solar UV variations using 27-day response as a guide to isolate trends in total column ozone

The total column ozone response to 11-year solar ultraviolet (UV) variations is estimated here from the observed response to 27-day solar variations adjusted for the theoretical difference between the 27-day response and 11-year response. The estimate is tested by comparing two data sets where long-term drifts have been removed, the Nimbus 7 TOMS Version 6 total column ozone and the 280 nm core-to-wing ratio (a proxy for solar UV variations). The 365-day running means of data area-weighted between 40 deg N to 40 deg S latitude give a 1.9% ozone variation related to the 11-year solar cycle compared with the estimate of 1.8%. Estimates of linear trends were reduced by a factor of 2 by including solar effects. The standard deviation from the empirical model was reduced from 1.0 to 0.6 Dobson Units, by including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but the QBO did not significantly alter trend estimates. Both the ozone responses to 27-day and 11-year solar variations were considerably stronger than predicted by a 2-D theoretical model.

Keating, G. M.↗

The photodissociation and chemistry of interstellar CO

Recent work on the vacuum UV absorption spectrum of CO to the description of the photodissociation of interstellar CO and its principal isotopic varieties is discussed. The effects of line broadening, self-shielding, shielding by H and H2, and isotope-selective shielding are examined as functions of depth into interstellar clouds. The photodissociation rates of the isotopic species are larger than that of (C-12)O inside the clouds by up to one to two orders of magnitude. A simple approximation to the attenuation by line absorption is given in tabular form. Computed abundances of CO and related species C and C+ are presented for a variety of interstellar clouds ranging from diffuse clouds to dense photodissociation regions. Several series of models of translucent clouds are presented which illustrate how the CO abundance increases rapidly with total cloud thickness. The variations of the isotopic abundances with depth and their sensitivity to temperature and total cloud thickness are explored in detail.

Van Dishoeck, Ewine F.↗

Solar Maximum Mission experiment - Initial observations by the active cavity radiometer

The Active Cavity Radiometer on board the SMM is providing high-quality measurements of the solar irradiance. After correction for the solar distance, the orbital displacement of the satellite, and the relativistic shift of irradiance due to the satellite motion, the observed standard deviation is in the range 10-15 parts per million in a 96-minute integration. Measurable solar variations occur on time scales of a few minutes to a few days. The total amplitude of the variations in the daily averages from February 16 to March 31, 1980, was 0.10% based upon 96-minute averages.

Willson, R. C.↗

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local “hot spots”, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗

Stratospheric ozone variations in the equatorial region as seen in Stratiospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment data

An analysis is made of equatorial ozone variations for 5 years, 1984-1989, using the ozone profile data derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument. Attention is focused on the annual cycle and also on interannual variability, particularly the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variations in the lower stratosphere, where the largest contribution to total column ozone takes place. The annual variation in zonal mean total ozone around the equator is composed of symmetric and asymmetric modes with respect to the equator, with maximum contributions being around 19 km for the symmetric mode and around 25 km for the asymmetric mode. The persistent zonal wavenumber 1 structure observed by the total ozone mapping spectrometer over the equator is almost missing in the SAGE-derived column amounts integrated in the stratosphere, suggesting a significant contribution from tropospheric ozone. Interannual variations in the equatorial ozone are dominated by the QBO above 20 km and the ENSO-related variation below 20 km. The ozone QBO is characterized by zonally uniform phase changes in association with the zonal wind QBO in the equatorial lower stratosphere. The ENSO-related ozone variation consists of both the east-west vacillation and the zonally uniform phase variation. During the El Nino event, the east-west contrast with positive (negative) deviations in the eastern (western) hemisphere is conspicuous, while the decreasing tendency of the zonal mean values is maximum at the same time.

Shiotani, Masato↗

Model predictions and trend analysis

Individual perturbations in atmospheric models are discussed. These are hypothetical perturbations determined by model computation in which it is assumed that one particular input or set of inputs to the model is changed while all others are held constant. The best estimates of past time dependent variations of globally averaged total ozone, and upper tropospheric and stratospheric ozone were determined along with geographical differences in the variations.

Source record↗

Sensitivity /comparison study between the Jacchia 1970, 1971, and 1977 upper atmospheric density models

The neutral upper atmospheric models for the Earth's thermosphere currently used in NASA-MSFC programs are the Jacchia 1970 (J70), 1971 (J71), and 1977 (J77). The Jacchia 1970 model (modified) is used in all MSFC orbital mechanics analyses. Since total density and its variations are the main environmental parameters of interest in orbital lifetime and attitude control studies, the total neutral density was selected for this analysis. This report presents the results of a parametric study of the total density (at 400 km altitude) as computed with three MSFC/Jacchia models. The sensitivity of each of the density models at the summer solstice to varying solar conditions (flux) and geomagnetic (index) values is discussed.

Johnson, D. L.↗

A possible correlation between maxima of the far ultraviolet solar irradiance and central meridian passages of solar magnetic sector boundaries

A description is given of the relationship observed between enhancements in the far ultraviolet solar irradiance and the position of the solar magnetic sector boundaries. The ultraviolet observations were made with the monitor of ultraviolet solar energy (MUSE) experiments which were launched aboard Nimbus 3 in April 1969 and Nimbus 4 April 1970. A comparison between the positions of solar magnetic sector boundaries and ultraviolet enchancements of the sun seems to show, at least during the year of 1969, that the ultraviolet maxima tend to occur near the times when a solar sector boundary is near the central meridian. An estimate of the magnitude of the variable ultraviolet solar energy input into the atmosphere resulting from the rotation of active solar longitudes is that for wavelengths less that 175 nm and down to H Lyman alpha it exceeds the annual variation whereas at longer wavelengths it is less. The total observed peak to peak variation in the ultraviolet irradiance from 120 to 300 nm over a solar rotation is typically at least 230 ergs/sq cm sec.

Heath, D. F.↗

An investigation of the behavior of outgassed molecules in thermal vacuums

The objective is to understand how surfaces outgas and how outgassed substances subsequently condense on other surfaces. Preliminary tests produced calculated mass losses that were found to be in reasonable agreement with mass losses determined by weighing the sample before and after testing on analytical balances. However, using test materials with various molecular properties showed characteristic variations in the ratios of calculated total mass loss to experimental loss. These variations indicate that for some molecules energetic barriers to absorption and desorption can exist between outgassed molecules and the surfaces on which they condense.

Mahone, W.↗

Application of remote sensing precipitation data and the $\mathrm{CONNECT}$ algorithm to investigate spatiotemporal variations of heavy precipitation: Case study of major floods across Iran (Spring 2019)

In recent years, the number of floods following unprecedented rainfall events have increased in Iran during early spring (March 21st to April 20th, referred to in Iran as the month of “Farvadin”). While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes and precipitation trends at different temporal scales from daily to annual across the country, analyses of short-duration and heavy precipitation, especially during recent years, are rarely considered. Furthermore, most studies investigate the variations in extremes and total precipitation using a limited number of synoptic weather stations across Iran. Here this study assesses the variations in heavy precipitation (precipitation with intensities greater than or equal to 3 mm/3 h) at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution during the month of Farvardin. In addition, the effect of atmospheric river conditions over Iran and their possible link to intensifying heavy precipitation is explored. For this purpose, the CONNected-objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is applied on a precipitation dataset, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS), and an Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) dataset from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2). The results suggest that the increase in the number of floods in recent years is related to the increase in the intensity and volume of heavy precipitation events, although the frequency and duration of heavy precipitation events have not changed significantly. Furthermore, the results show that atmospheric river conditions over the country are present during the same window as each year’s most extreme events. It is found that 8 out of 13 of the largest ARs over Iran come from moisture plumes with pathways over the African and Red Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Are solar spectral variations a drive for climatic change

The effects of UV variations on atmospheric ozone content and climate for time scales encompassing the 27-day solar rotation period, the sunspot period, twice the solar magnetic, and also longer time periods are examined. The studies of the relationship between solar UV variations, atmospheric ozone content and atmospheric temperatures were conducted by estimating the impact of such variations on tropospheric temperature. The total luminosity constant is then held and the dependence of the ozone variations on the forcing period is calculated. It is concluded that solar UV variations on time scales of weeks to months occasionally perturb total ozone and stratospheric temperatures by noticeable amounts but result in only minor changes in the troposphere.

Pollack, J. R.↗

Turbine vane coolant flow variations and calculated effects on metal temperatures

Seventy-two air-cooled turbine vanes were tested to determine coolant flow variations among the vanes. Calculations were made to estimate the effect of measured coolant flow variations on local vane metal temperatures. The calculations were based on the following assumed operating conditions: turbine inlet temperature, 1700 K (2600 F); turbine inlet pressure, 31 N/sq cm (45 psia); coolant inlet temperature, 811 K (1000 F); and total coolant to gas flow ratio, 0.065. Variations of total coolant flow were not large (about 10 percent from the arithmetic mean) for all 72 vanes, but variations in local coolant flows were large. The local coolant flow variations ranged from 8 to 75 percent, and calculated metal temperature variations ranged from 8 to 60 K (15 to 180 F).

Yeh, F. C.↗

Solar UV variability - Effects on stratospheric ozone, trace constituents and thermal structure

The effect of long-term (11-year solar cycle) solar UV variability on stratospheric chemical and thermal structure has been studied using a time-dependent one-dimensional model. Previous studies have suggested substantial variations in local and total ozone, and in stratospheric thermal structure from solar minimum to solar maximum. It is shown that significant variations also occur in some of the trace constituents. Members of the HOx family and N2O exhibit the largest variations, and these changes, if detected, may provide additional means of verifying the presence of solar UV variability and its effects. Some of the species show large phase differences with the assumed solar flux variation. The role of chemical and transport time constants on the time variations of the trace species is examined. Comparisons with reported ozone and temperature data show reasonable agreement for the period 1960 to 1972.

Natarajan, M.↗

Noise-specific beating in the higher-level Ramsey curves of a transmon qubit

We report: in the higher levels of superconducting transmon devices and more generally charge sensitive devices, T 2 * measurements made in the presence of low-frequency time-correlated 1/f charge noise and quasiparticle-induced parity flips can give an underestimation of the total dephasing time. The charge variations manifest as beating patterns observed in the overlay of several Ramsey fringe curves and are reproduced with a phenomenological Ramsey curve model, which accounts for the charge variations. T 2 * dephasing times, which more accurately represent the total dephasing time, are obtained. The phenomenological model is compared with a Lindblad master equation model. Both models are found to be in agreement with one another and the experimental data. Finally, the phenomenological formulation enables a simple method in which the power spectral density for the low-frequency noise can be inferred from the overlay of several Ramsey curves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Extraterrestrial solar energy and its possible variations

Values of the solar constant and solar spectrum have been adopted as design standards for NASA space vehicles and as engineering standards by IES/ASTM. High resolution spectral data for the UV and visible range, normalized to these standards have been derived. Applications of these results for weather analysis, air pollution, ozone production, and atmospheric energy exchange are reviewed. Indications of possible variations in solar energy, total and spectral, and their influence on the earth-atmosphere system are examined. Programs for future studies of these variations from satellites and high-altitude aircraft are discussed.

Thekaekara, M. P.↗