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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on residence time distribution simulation in two 10-kilometer long river sections

This data package is associated with the publication “On the Transferability of Residence Time Distributions in Two 10-km Long River Sections with Similar Hydromorphic Units” submitted to the Journal of Hydrology (Bao et al. 2024).Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface, along with their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface, is crucial for managing water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, directly simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be a time-consuming process, particularly for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models that link RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) may serve as alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. One common concern with these surrogate models, however, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this, we evaluated the HEFs and the resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-kilometer-long river corridors along the Columbia River, using a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework that we previously developed. Applying this framework to the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. This data package includes the model inputs files and the simulation results data. This data package contains 10 folders. The modeling simulation results data are in the folders 100H_pt_data and 300area_pt_data, for the study domain Hanford 100H and 300 area respectively. The remaining eight folders contain the scripts and data to generate the manuscript figures. The file-level metadata file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _flmd.csv) includes a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _dd.csv) includes column header definitions and units of all tabular files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Seismograms in the Time Domain Using a Deep Learning Model

Deep learning has emerged as a transformative tool for enhancing the extraction of reliable information from seismograms, addressing the increasing demand for precise and efficient seismic data analysis. We introduce an innovative encoder–decoder deep learning model, named WaveDenoiser, designed for noise reduction in the time domain, thereby eliminating the need for spectrogram computations that have been used for existing deep learning tools and significantly improving processing speed. Utilizing the benchmark dataset that is Stanford Earthquake Dataset, we developed three models of varying sizes: base, medium, and large. Notably, the large (referred to as WaveDenoiser) model demonstrated superior performance, achieving a median signal‐to‐noise ratio improvement of 8.8 dB on in‐distribution unseen data (in the same geographic region) and 7.7 dB on out‐distribution unseen data (in a new geographic region), outpacing both the base and medium models. Further evaluation of the WaveDenoiser model revealed a reduction in median arrival‐time errors by 0.02 s for P waves and 0.01 s for S waves when processing waveforms prior to phase picking using PhaseNet on in‐distribution unseen data. When tested on out‐distribution unseen data, the model also effectively reduced the P‐wave median arrival‐time error by 0.02 and 0.01 s in median arrival‐time error for S waves. Importantly, the application of WaveDenoiser resulted in a significant reduction of phase picking outliers by 1.1% to 3.6% for both P and S waves. In addition, we achieved over five times acceleration in processing speed compared with the seisBench implementation of DeepDenoiser. Our findings underscore the potential of WaveDenoiser as a powerful tool for improving seismic data analysis and processing efficiency.

P-waves↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear multiobjective and dynamic real-time predictive optimization for optimal operation of baseload power plants under variable renewable energy

Considering the increase of disruptive variable renewable energy penetration into the power grid, this article focuses on the investigation of a multiobjective and dynamic real-time optimization framework to address the cycling of large-scale power plants under renewable penetration. In this framework, a parallelized particle swarm optimization step is first performed to generate feasible initial points. Then, a multiobjective and dynamic real-time optimization formulation generates optimal trajectories. Further, the benefit of predictive capability is investigated for the dynamic component, which introduces the novel nonlinear multiobjective and dynamic real-time predictive optimization approach. Two multiobjective formulations to obtain Pareto front optimal in real time are explored: the modified Tchebycheff-based weighted metric and ϵ-constraint methods. Economic and environmental objectives are considered in this study. A novel topical discussion on the intersection of dynamic real-time optimization with model predictive control is also presented. The developed framework is successfully applied to a baseload coal-fired power plant with postcombustion CO 2 capture. Results indicate that the approach can be deployed for a large-scale system if automatic differentiation, model reduction, and parallelization are adopted to improve computational tractability, with computational improvement up to 120-folds after performing these steps. Finally, market and carbon policies showed an impact on the optimal compromise between the objectives with an additional 63 ton of CO 2 captured under favorable market conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging problems of quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of meteorological time series data

Abstract Representativeness and quality of collected meteorological data impact accuracy and precision of climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical analyses and predictions. We developed a comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework, consisting of three major phases: Phase I—Preliminary data exploration, i.e., processing of raw datasets, with the challenging problems of time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase II—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme data; and Phase III—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The paper includes two use cases based on the time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado), and the Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) meteorological station. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time dispatch optimization for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants present a promising path towards utility-scale renewable energy. The power tower, or central receiver, configuration can achieve higher operating temperatures than other forms of CSP, and, like all forms of CSP, naturally pairs with comparatively inexpensive thermal energy storage, which allows CSP plants to dispatch electricity according to market price incentives and outside the hours of solar resource availability. Currently, CSP plants commonly include a steam Rankine power cycle and several heat exchange components to generate high-pressure steam using stored thermal energy. The efficiency of the steam Rankine cycle depends on the temperature of the plant's operating fluid, and so is a main concern of plant operators. However, the variable nature of the solar resource and the conservatism with which the receiver is operated prevent perfect control over the receiver outlet temperature. Therefore, during periods of solar variability, collection occurs at lower-than-design temperature. To support operator decisions in a real-time setting, we develop a revenue-maximizing non-convex mixed-integer, quadradically-constrained program which determines a dispatch schedule with sub-hourly time fidelity and considers temperature-dependent power cycle efficiency. The exact nonlinear formulation proves intractable for real-time decision support. Here we present exact and inexact techniques to improve problem tractability that include a hybrid nonlinear and linear formulation. Our approach admits solutions within approximately 3% of optimality, on average, within a five-minute time limit, demonstrating its usability for decision support in a real-time setting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nanosecond time-resolved infrared spectroscopy for the study of electron transfer in photosystem I

Abstract Microsecond time-resolved step-scan FTIR difference spectroscopy was used to study photosystem I (PSI) from Thermosynechococcus vestitus BP-1 ( T. vestitus, formerly known as T. elongatus ) at 77 K. In addition, photoaccumulated (P700 + –P700) FTIR difference spectra were obtained at both 77 and 293 K. The FTIR difference spectra are presented here for the first time. To extend upon these FTIR studies nanosecond time-resolved infrared difference spectroscopy was also used to study PSI from T. vestitus at 296 K. Nanosecond infrared spectroscopy has never been used to study PSI samples at physiological temperatures, and here it is shown that such an approach has great value as it allows a direct probe of electron transfer down both branches in PSI. In PSI at 296 K, the infrared flash-induced absorption changes indicate electron transfer down the B- and A-branches is characterized by time constants of 33 and 364 ns, respectively, in good agreement with visible spectroscopy studies. These time constants are associated with forward electron transfer from A 1 – to F X on the B- and A-branches, respectively. At several infrared wavelengths flash-induced absorption changes at 296 K recover in tens to hundreds of milliseconds. The dominant decay phase is characterized by a lifetime of 128 ms. These millisecond changes are assigned to radical pair recombination reactions, with the changes being associated primarily with P700 + rereduction. This conclusion follows from the observation that the millisecond infrared spectrum is very similar to the photoaccumulated (P700 + –P700) FTIR difference spectrum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of exponential integrators and traditional time integration schemes for the shallow water equations

We report the time integration scheme is probably one of the most fundamental choices in the development of an ocean model. In this paper, we investigate several time integration schemes when applied to the shallow water equations. This set of equations is accurate enough for the modeling of a shallow ocean and is also relevant to study as it is the one solved for the barotropic (i.e. vertically averaged) component of a three dimensional ocean model. We analyze different time stepping algorithms for the linearized shallow water equations. High order explicit schemes are accurate but the time step is constrained by the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy stability condition. Implicit schemes can be unconditionally stable but, in practice lack accuracy when used with large time steps. In this paper we propose a detailed comparison of such classical schemes with exponential integrators. The accuracy and the computational costs are analyzed in different configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-discretization of a plasma-neutral MHD model with a semi-implicit leapfrog algorithm

The semi-implicit leapfrog time-discretization is a workhorse algorithm for initial-value MHD codes to bridge between vastly separated time scales. Inclusion of atomic interactions with neutrals breaks the functional structure of the MHD equations that exploited by the leapfrog. In this work, we address how to best integrate atomic physics into the semi-implicit leapfrog. Following the Crank-Nicolson method, one approach is to time-center the atomic interactions in the linear solver and use a Newton method to include the nonlinear contributions. Alternatively, another family of methods are based on operator-splitting the terms associated with the atomic interactions using a Strang-splitting technique. These methods naturally break equations into constituent ODE and PDE parts and preserve the structure exploited by the semi-implicit leapfrog. We study the accuracy and efficiency of these methods through a battery of 0D and 1D cases and show that a second-order-in-time Douglas-Rachford inspired coupling between the ODE and PDE advances is effective in reducing the time-discretization error to be comparable to that of Crank-Nicolson with Newton iteration of the nonlinear terms. Splitting ODE and PDE parts results in independent matrix solves for each field which reduces the computational cost considerably and provides parallelization over species relative to Crank-Nicolson.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regularizing the linearly extrapolated BDF2 scheme for incompressible flows with time relaxation

This paper presents a highly-efficient finite element scheme for the time relaxation model (TRM). The efficiency is achieved through the second-order BDF2 time-stepping scheme with linear extrapolation (BDF2LE). The accuracy of the scheme is also greatly enhanced through the use of the divergence-free Scott-Vogeulis finite elements, and van Cittert approximate deconvolution. A complete finite element analysis is provided, which includes rigorous proofs for the stability, well-possessedness, and convergence of both velocity and pressure solutions. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that the inclusion of the linear time relaxation term preserves the long-time stability of the unregularized BDF2LE scheme. Finally, numerical experiments are presented that demonstrate the added stability and accuracy that time relaxation can provide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time streamflow forecasting: AI vs. Hydrologic insights

In this paper, we propose a set of simple benchmarks for the evaluation of data-based models for real-time streamflow forecasting, such as those developed with sophisticated Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. The benchmarks are also data-based and provide context to judge incremental improvements in the performance metrics from the more complicated approaches. The benchmarks include temporal and spatial persistence, persistence corrected for baseflow and streamflow, as well as river distance weighted runoff obtained from space-time distributed rainfall. In the development of the benchmarks, we use basic hydrologic insights such as flow aggregation by the river network, scale-dependence in basin response, streamflow partitioning into quick flow and baseflow, water travel time, and rainfall averaging by the basin width function. The study uses 140 streamflow gauges in Iowa that cover a range of basin scales between 7 and 37,000 km 2 . The data cover 17 years. This work demonstrates that the proposed benchmarks can provide good performance according to several commonly used metrics. For example, streamflow forecasting at half of the test locations across years achieves a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score of 0.6 or higher at one-day ahead lead time, and 20% of cases reach the KGE of 0.8 or higher. The proposed benchmarks are easy to implement and should prove useful for developers of data-based as well as physics-based hydrologic models and real-time data assimilation techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint impedance and facies inversion of time-lapse seismic data for improving monitoring of CO 2 incidentally stored from CO 2 EOR

Time-lapse seismic monitoring is an effective and proven technology for mapping the distribution of CO 2 in a subsurface reservoir. When injected CO 2 displaces other reservoir fluids, porous-medium properties are changed and thus the seismic impedance changes, causing time-lapse seismic amplitude differences in the injection zones. The analysis and interpretation of images created from these amplitude differences can provide information about reservoir architecture and the CO 2 migration within the reservoir. Incorporating seismic inversion and rock physics into the interpretation of time-lapse seismic data can considerably improve the modeling and monitoring to detect and assess the location of CO 2 over time. The joint inversion method presented in this paper has an integral representation of the geology in the inversion algorithm using elastic facies, which provides information about the spatial distribution of the geologic heterogeneities controlling the movement of fluids in the reservoir. The method was successfully applied to time-lapse seismic data from a mature oil field undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery. The estimated seismic acoustic impedances and facies reflect the characteristics of individual geologic facies and fluid conditions of the reservoir subject to CO 2 injection. Finally, the probabilities estimated by the joint impedance and facies inversion for the reservoir's litho-fluid facies can be used for forecasting CO 2 saturation and pressure changes within the target reservoir.

4D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local time stepping for the shallow water equations in MPAS

In this work we assess the performance of a set of local time-stepping (LTS) schemes for the shallow water equations implemented in the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The goal of LTS is to speed up the simulation by allowing different time-steps on different regions of the computational grid. The LTS schemes considered here were originally introduced by Hoang et al. (2019) [26], who laid out the mathematical foundation of the methods. Here, the authors take on the task of presenting a fast, efficient and scalable parallel implementation of these LTS methods on high performance computing machines, with the aim to provide a recipe for other climate modeling groups that may be interested in employing LTS algorithms in their codes. As a matter of fact, even if MPAS is our framework of choice, our approach is general enough and could be of interest to other groups beyond the MPAS community. Due to their nature, LTS methods possess an inherent load imbalance that needs to be carefully addressed in order to obtain efficient scalability. Even more important is the far from trivial task of computing the right-hand side terms only on specific LTS regions during the time-stepping procedure. An inefficient handling of this task causes a drastic decay of the CPU time performance, making the LTS algorithms practically of no use. The emphasis of the present work is therefore on the computational and parallel aspects of the LTS methods, whose proper treatment is crucial to make the methods run faster against existing strategies, such as for instance high-order explicit global time-stepping schemes. This is in fact the ultimate goal of using an LTS procedure and it is the one to which we direct all our optimization efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Noninvasive acoustic time-of-flight measurements in heated, hermetically-sealed high explosives using a convolutional neural network

In this work, we present a data-driven technique for measuring the time-of-flight through material sealed within a container. Time-of-flight measurement provides a noninvasive means of quantifying the sound speed profile within a material by transmitting an acoustic burst and then measuring the time required for the burst to arrive at an opposing receiver. In a hermetically-sealed cylindrical container, a portion of the acoustic energy propagates through the material as a bulk wave, while the remainder of the acoustic energy propagates around the container walls as guided waves. As a result, interference from the guided waves obscures the bulk arrival, inhibiting measurement of the sound speed. The technique uses a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to identify critical features in the measured waveforms and identify bulk wave arrivals. We demonstrate this time-of-flight measurement technique on high explosive-filled containers as they are heated from room temperature to detonation. This is a particularly challenging application for acoustic time-of-flight measurements as the high explosives have significant sound speed gradients as they undergo heating, and they lead to significant attenuation of the bulk wave, as opposed to the guided waves, which do not suffer significant attenuation. We characterize the performance of the CNN as a function of the high explosive temperature and as a function of the CNN hyperparameters. We then provide physical insight into the error trends.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The impact of the third O 2 addition reaction network on ignition delay times of neo-pentane

In this work, we studied the oxidation of neo-pentane by combining experiments, theoretical calculations, and mechanistic developments to elucidate the impact of the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network on ignition delay time predictions. The experiments are based on photoionization mass spectrometry in jet-stirred and time-resolved flow reactors allowing for sensitive detection of the keto-hydroperoxide (KHP) and keto-dihydroperoxide (KDHP) intermediates. With neo-pentane exhibiting a unique symmetric molecular structure, which consequently results only in single KHP and KDHP isomers, theoretical calculations of ionization and fragment appearance energies and of absolute photoionization cross sections enabled the unambiguous identification and quantification of the KHP intermediate. Its temperature and time-resolved profiles together with calculated and experimentally observed KHP-to-KDHP signal ratios were compared to simulation results based on a newly developed mechanism that describes the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network. A satisfactory agreement has been observed between the experimental data points and the simulation results, thus adding confidence to the model's overall performance. Finally, this mechanism was used to predict ignition delay times reported previously in shock tube and rapid compression machine experiments (J. Bugler et al., Combust. Flame 163 (2016) 138–156). While the model accurately reproduces the experimental data, simulations with and without the 3rd O 2 addition reaction network included reveal only a negligible effect on the predicted ignition delay times at 10 and 20 atm. According to model calculations, low temperatures and high pressures promote the importance of the 3rd O2 addition reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud Process Coupling and Time Integration in the E3SM Atmosphere Model

Abstract In this study, we find significant sensitivity to the choice of time step for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's atmospheric component, leading to large decreases in the magnitude of cloud forcing when the time step is reduced to 10 s. Reducing the time step size for the microphysics increases precipitation, leading to a drying of the atmosphere and an increase in surface evaporation. This effect is amplified when the microphysics is substepped together with other cloud physics processes. Coupling the model's dynamics and physics more frequently reduces cloud fraction at lower altitudes, while producing more cloud liquid at higher altitudes. Reducing the deep convection time step also reduces low cloud mass and cloud fraction. Together, these results suggest that cloud physics in a global circulation model can depend strongly on time step and, in particular, on the frequency with which cloud‐related processes are coupled with each other and with the model dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Lead Times of Warm Water Volumes to ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) and western equatorial Pacific WWV (WWV w ) are two important long-lead time El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event precursors. Here, for this work, we utilize the recharge-discharge oscillator framework to obtain the analytical solution of WWV and WWV w lead times to ENSO sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Both WWV and WWVw lead times show a strong dependence on the inherent ENSO periodicity, whereas WWV lead time is further modulated by the air-sea coupling strength and ENSO SST spatial pattern. The derived solution is able to explain observed decadal variations in lead times of WWV to SST in terms of variations in ENSO periodicity and air-sea coupling strength.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗