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At least 523 records · Page 29

HURON (HUman and Robotic Optimization Network) Multi-Agent Temporal Activity Planner/Scheduler

HURON solves the problem of how to optimize a plan and schedule for assigning multiple agents to a temporal sequence of actions (e.g., science tasks). Developed as a generic planning and scheduling tool, HURON has been used to optimize space mission surface operations. The tool has also been used to analyze lunar architectures for a variety of surface operational scenarios in order to maximize return on investment and productivity. These scenarios include numerous science activities performed by a diverse set of agents: humans, teleoperated rovers, and autonomous rovers. Once given a set of agents, activities, resources, resource constraints, temporal constraints, and de pendencies, HURON computes an optimal schedule that meets a specified goal (e.g., maximum productivity or minimum time), subject to the constraints. HURON performs planning and scheduling optimization as a graph search in state-space with forward progression. Each node in the graph contains a state instance. Starting with the initial node, a graph is automatically constructed with new successive nodes of each new state to explore. The optimization uses a set of pre-conditions and post-conditions to create the children states. The Python language was adopted to not only enable more agile development, but to also allow the domain experts to easily define their optimization models. A graphical user interface was also developed to facilitate real-time search information feedback and interaction by the operator in the search optimization process. The HURON package has many potential uses in the fields of Operations Research and Management Science where this technology applies to many commercial domains requiring optimization to reduce costs. For example, optimizing a fleet of transportation truck routes, aircraft flight scheduling, and other route-planning scenarios involving multiple agent task optimization would all benefit by using HURON.

Hua, Hook↗

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗

Active learning of a crystal plasticity flow rule from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations

Continuum-scale material deformation models, such as crystal plasticity (CP), can significantly enhance their predictive accuracy by incorporating input from lower-scale (i.e. mesoscale) models. The procedure to generate and extract the relevant information is however typically complex and ad hoc, involving decision and intervention by domain experts, leading to long development times. In this study, we develop a principled approach for calibration of continuum-scale models using lower scale information by representing a CP flow rule as a Gaussian process model. This representation allows for efficient parameter space exploration, guided by the uncertainty embedded in the model through a process known as Bayesian optimization (BO). We demonstrate a semi-autonomous BO loop which instantiates discrete dislocation dynamics simulations whose initial conditions are automatically chosen to optimize the uncertainty of a model CP flow rule. Our self-guided computational pipeline efficiently generated a dataset and corresponding model whose error, uncertainty, and physical feature sensitivities were validated with comparison to an independent dataset four times larger, demonstrating a valuable and efficient active learning implementation readily transferable to similar material systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamics of Quasi-biennial Oscillations in Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled System

In this study, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in atmosphere-ocean coupled system is investigated using intermediate coupled model. Observation studies show that the easterly zonal winds anomalies prevail over the equatorial western Pacific during the warm phase of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At the time scale of QBO, SST variations and east Asia Summer monsoon rainfall are closely linked to the eastward propagating zonal winds anomalies originated from Indian ocean. To investigate the effect of zonal wind anomalies over western Pacific on the evolution of ENSO, simple anomalous winds are added to the western part of model domain as external forcing. Wind forcing is parameterized as a function of SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific with time lag. Time lag is adopted to mimic the relation between east Asian monsoon and ENSO. The results shows that the winds anomalies make coupled system oscillate through generating forced Kelvin waves even without the western boundary reflection of Rossby waves. Kelvin waves generated by external forcing are also crucial for the model to oscillate as well as Rossby wave reflections at the western boundary. When the monsoon forced Kelvin wave is strong during the northern winter, the coupled system damped out very quickly. In certain range of external winds amplitude and time lag, the model El Nino shows QBO features. It is suggested that the external wind forcing which is related to summer monsoon flow over western Pacific intensify the negative feedback process of off-equatorial Rossby waves and modify the ENSO periodicity.

Kim, K.-M.↗

Phase-Field Methods for Structure Evolution in Sheared Multiphase Systems

A homogeneous disordered phase separates into ordered structures when quenched into a broken-symmetry phase. The competition of broken-symmetry phases to select an equilibrium state may be studied in terms of coarse-grained order parameters described by a suitable Landau free-energy function. A network of equilibrium-phase domains develops on quenching and coarsens with time with a topology that may be controlled by shear. We use three-dimensional simulations, in which time-dependent models for conserved-order parameters coupled to Navier-Stokes fluid models are solved, to investigate the evolution of such domains, e.g. spinodal decompositions of polymeric materials under shear. The numerical problems are formidable because of the strong nonlinearities inherent in the coupled model, and these are amongst the first 3D calculations undertaken. In linear shear fields we find stable nanostrings, also recently seen in experiments. The affinity of the ordered phases to boundaries plays a role in the form of the structures that develop, with stacked plate-like phase distributions emerging under certain conditions. Such methods appear quite promising for design and analysis of multiphase and complex fluid formulations. The behavior of foams in such conditions is of particular interest in microgravity environments. Additional information can be found in the original extended abstract.

Badalassi, Vittorio↗

Efficient derivative computation for unsteady fatigue-constrained nonlinear aero-structural wind turbine blade optimization

Gradient-based optimization offers significant efficiency advantages for wind turbine blade design, but its application has often been limited by the cost and accuracy of finite-difference derivative calculations, especially when fatigue constraints are considered. In this work, we systematically compare and evaluate four differentiation techniques, namely algorithmic differentiation, implicit differentiation, sparsity exploitation, and parallelization, to determine their effectiveness in computing accurate gradients through time-domain aero-structural simulations. By integrating these techniques with unsteady nonlinear aerodynamic and structural models, we develop software designed for accurate gradient computation. We show that combining these techniques addresses memory and runtime challenges associated with long simulations required by design load cases. Specifically, the most effective combination reduces derivative computation wall time by over an order of magnitude compared to finite differencing while maintaining superior accuracy. We demonstrate this approach in a proof-of-concept aero-structural optimization of a wind turbine blade that improves the cost of energy by 12.78 %. This comparative study establishes a viable approach for fatigue-aware blade design that balances computational efficiency with modeling accuracy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Simulation of on-orbit modal tests of large space structures

This paper describes a procedure to analytically simulate a modal test of an on-orbit large space structure (LSS), extract the modal properties, and evaluate the success of the modal test. This procedure addresses some of the major challenges to performing an on-orbit modal test of an LSS including high modal density, low frequency modes, and limitations in excitation capabilities. A finite element model of the orbiting structure is used to predict acceleration responses due to thruster excitations, time-domain modal extraction methods are used to estimate the modal properties, and comparison of frequencies and cross-orthogonality values is used to evaluate the success of the modal test. Several alternative excitation patterns and sensor arrangements were evaluated using a space station model as an example. Results of the simulations indicate that the choice of excitation functions is critical to the success of the test.

Blelloch, Paul↗

Generalized Power Flow Model of an Extra High-Power Multi-Terminal HVdc Transmission Grid with Parallel-Connected and Voltage-Stacked Converters

To increase power transfer capacity of high-voltage direct current (HVdc) transmission, a new extra high-power HVdc architecture with multiple standard modular multilevel converters (MMCs) per substation has recently been introduced. This paper proposes a power flow model for a multi-terminal HVdc (MTdc) grid with this innovative substation architecture. The proposed MTdc model can be integrated seamlessly with existing ac-dc power flow algorithms with minimal modifications. The model is applicable to various MTdc grid types and topologies, different numbers of dc buses, dc lines, and MMCs per substation, along with diverse control parameters. In addition, it accurately captures both balanced and unbalanced operations of the MTdc grid. The proposed model is verified using a 5-terminal bipole MTdc grid that spans 4 areas in the Eastern Interconnection system of the USA. The numerical solutions obtained from unified and sequential ac-dc power flow algorithms under different operating conditions closely match the time-domain simulation results in PSCAD, validating the accuracy and versatility of the proposed MTdc power flow model.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

This final report describes the methods and results of applying Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity (SSTDR) for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants for DE-EE0008169. The project created a new system for both detecting and locating electrical faults in photovoltaic systems. In this work, we address photovoltaic electric faults that are both common and costly. Based on interviews with photovoltaic power plant owners, operators, and maintainers, three types of faults are common and of significant interest: disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults. Disconnects can originate from many sources. They are often due to everyday events, such as lawnmowing (accidentally running over a cable), animals eating through the cables, or degradation that occurs over time due to corrosion or general degradation. Ground faults occur when the cables (for example, due to frayed insolation) connect to the ground, relaying current into the ground. These faults are particularly problematic since the ground faults are often intermittent. That is, ground faults commonly appear during rain storms due to a change in soil conductivity and then disappear when the rain ends. This makes the ground fault difficult to find because while current systems can detect the overall change in voltage and current associated with a ground fault, technicians are necessary to locate the fault. As a result, ground faults may disappear before the technician arrives at the power plant. Hence, locating and fixing ground faults often require multiple trips. We also study arc faults, which can result when nearby conductors create an arc of electrical current through the air. While less common, arc faults can be extremely dangerous. The energetic electrical arc can cause fires and destroy equipment, costing significant damage. Overall all three types of faults cost owners and operators money, either from the destruction of equipment or from technician time. Furthermore, while devices exist for detecting ground faults (ground fault circuit interrupters) and arc faults (arc fault circuit interrupter), these systems only search patterns of electrical current that correspond to each fault. This information cannot be used to locate the fault. In addition, these protection systems experience nuisance trips due to nearby electromagnetic interference, such as from a lawn mower or other motors that produce significant amounts of electromagnetic radiation. Hence, the overall goal of this project is to create an SSTDR tool that provides photovoltaic power plants with more reliable fault detection in addition to the localization of faults. SSTDR works by transmitting electrical signals into the photovoltaic string. Those signals reflect from impedance discontinuities (i.e., disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults). These faults are then detected by measuring the presence of a reflection at the SSTDR and can be located by identifying the location of that reflection in time. In addition, unlike current protection systems, these systems do not experience nuisance trips since their low amplitude, high frequency, and coded signal can by analyzed without interference from the regular operational voltage on the photovoltaic string.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Gaussian Process Enhancement to Linear Parameter Varying Models

Simulation and analysis for modern engineering systems now routinely requires the merging of multiple disciplines, physical-domains, time-scales, and data sets — all at ever increasing levels. These capabilities are especially needed in the domain of Advanced Air Mobility, where rapidly emerging vehicle designs are significantly more complex, while having to be both cost-effective and safe. To meet these engineering challenges, machine learning methods are an attractive option for merging models and data across multiple areas while providing uncertainty quantification and maintaining computational efficiency. This paper examines the use of Gaussian process machine learning to generalize and enhance the commonly used class of quasi-Linear Parameter Varying models for fast full-envelope simulation while also supporting control system design and analysis with model uncertainty. Gaussian process machine learning is selected because it: can fuse multiple data sets, enables an easy trade-off between data fitting and smoothing, provides model uncertainty quantification, scales well with increasing complexity, and does not generally require starting from a large training data set. To demonstrate the benefits of the approach, a robust stability analysis with Gaussian process uncertainty is shown for a NASA reference design of an electric quad-rotor air-taxi concept vehicle with motor parameter uncertainty.

Gaussian Process↗

Estimation of Handling Qualities Parameters of the Tu-144 Supersonic Transport Aircraft from Flight Test Data

Low order equivalent system (LOES) models for the Tu-144 supersonic transport aircraft were identified from flight test data. The mathematical models were given in terms of transfer functions with a time delay by the military standard MIL-STD-1797A, "Flying Qualities of Piloted Aircraft," and the handling qualities were predicted from the estimated transfer function coefficients. The coefficients and the time delay in the transfer functions were estimated using a nonlinear equation error formulation in the frequency domain. Flight test data from pitch, roll, and yaw frequency sweeps at various flight conditions were used for parameter estimation. Flight test results are presented in terms of the estimated parameter values, their standard errors, and output fits in the time domain. Data from doublet maneuvers at the same flight conditions were used to assess the predictive capabilities of the identified models. The identified transfer function models fit the measured data well and demonstrated good prediction capabilities. The Tu-144 was predicted to be between level 2 and 3 for all longitudinal maneuvers and level I for all lateral maneuvers. High estimates of the equivalent time delay in the transfer function model caused the poor longitudinal rating.

Curry, Timothy J.↗

Linearized Aeroelastic Solver Applied to the Flutter Prediction of Real Configurations

A fast-running unsteady aerodynamics code, LINFLUX, was previously developed for predicting turbomachinery flutter. This linearized code, based on a frequency domain method, models the effects of steady blade loading through a nonlinear steady flow field. The LINFLUX code, which is 6 to 7 times faster than the corresponding nonlinear time domain code, is suitable for use in the initial design phase. Earlier, this code was verified through application to a research fan, and it was shown that the predictions of work per cycle and flutter compared well with those from a nonlinear time-marching aeroelastic code, TURBO-AE. Now, the LINFLUX code has been applied to real configurations: fans developed under the Energy Efficient Engine (E-cubed) Program and the Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) project. The LINFLUX code starts with a steady nonlinear aerodynamic flow field and solves the unsteady linearized Euler equations to calculate the unsteady aerodynamic forces on the turbomachinery blades. First, a steady aerodynamic solution is computed for given operating conditions using the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic code TURBO-AE. A blade vibration analysis is done to determine the frequencies and mode shapes of the vibrating blades, and an interface code is used to convert the steady aerodynamic solution to a form required by LINFLUX. A preprocessor is used to interpolate the mode shapes from the structural dynamics mesh onto the computational fluid dynamics mesh. Then, LINFLUX is used to calculate the unsteady aerodynamic pressure distribution for a given vibration mode, frequency, and interblade phase angle. Finally, a post-processor uses the unsteady pressures to calculate the generalized aerodynamic forces, eigenvalues, an esponse amplitudes. The eigenvalues determine the flutter frequency and damping. Results of flutter calculations from the LINFLUX code are presented for (1) the E-cubed fan developed under the E-cubed program and (2) the Quiet High Speed Fan (QHSF) developed under the Quiet Aircraft Technology project. The results are compared with those obtained from the TURBO-AE code. A graph of the work done per vibration cycle for the first vibration mode of the E-cubed fan is shown. It can be seen that the LINFLUX results show a very good comparison with TURBO-AE results over the entire range of interblade phase angle. The work done per vibration cycle for the first vibration mode of the QHSF fan is shown. Once again, the LINFLUX results compare very well with the results from the TURBOAE code.

Reddy, Tondapu S.↗

Examples of data assimilation in mesoscale models

The keynote address was the problem of physical initialization of mesoscale models. The classic purpose of physical or diabatic initialization is to reduce or eliminate the spin-up error caused by the lack, at the initial time, of the fully developed vertical circulations required to support regions of large rainfall rates. However, even if a model has no spin-up problem, imposition of observed moisture and heating rate information during assimilation can improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, especially early in the forecast. The two key issues in physical initialization are the choice of assimilating technique and sources of hydrologic/hydrometeor data. Another example of data assimilation in mesoscale models was presented in a series of meso-beta scale model experiments with and 11 km version of the MASS model designed to investigate the sensitivity of convective initiation forced by thermally direct circulations resulting from differential surface heating to four dimensional assimilation of surface and radar data. The results of these simulations underscore the need to accurately initialize and simulate grid and sub-grid scale clouds in meso- beta scale models. The status of the application of the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model by the NOAA Forecast Systems Lab for producing real-time forecasts with 10-60 km mesh resolutions over (4000 km)(exp 2) domains for use by the aviation community was reported. Either MAPS or LAPS model data are used to initialize the RAMS model on a 12-h cycle. The use of MAPS (Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System) model was discussed. Also discussed was the mesobeta-scale data assimilation using a triply-nested nonhydrostatic version of the MM5 model.

Carr, Fred↗

Interactive Visualization of High-Dimensional Petascale Ocean Data

We describe an application for interactive visualization of 5 petabytes of time-varying multivariate data from a high-resolution global ocean circulation model. The input data are 10311 hourly (ocean time) time steps of various 2D and 3D fields from a 22-billion point 1/48- degree “lat-lon cap” configuration of the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm). We map the global horizontal model domain onto our 128-screen (8x16) tiled display wall to produce a canonical tiling with approximately one MITgcm grid point per display pixel, and using this tiling we encode the entire time series for multiple native and computed scalar quantities at a collection of ocean depths. We reduce disk bandwidth requirements by converting the model’s floating point data to 16-bit fixed point values, and compressing those values with a lossless video encoder, which together allow synchronized playback at 24 time steps per second across all 128 displays. The application allows dynamic assignment of any two encoded tiles to any display, and has multiple interfaces for quickly specifying various orderly arrangements of tiles. All subsequent rendering is done on the fly, with run time control of colormaps, transfer functions, histogram equalization, and labeling. The two data streams on each screen can be rendered independently and combined in various ways, including blending, differencing, horizontal/ vertical wipes, and checkerboarding. The two data streams on any screen can optionally be displayed as a scatterplot in their joint attribute space. All scatterplots and map-view plots from the same x/y location and depth are linked so they all show the current brushable selection. Ocean scientists have used the system, and have found previously unidentified features in the data.

Interactive↗

Deep Cellular Recurrent Network for Efficient Analysis of Time-Series Data With Spatial Information

Efficient processing of large-scale time series data is an intricate problem in machine learning. Conventional sensor signal processing pipelines with hand engineered feature extraction often involve huge computational cost with high dimensional data. Deep recurrent neural networks have shown promise in automated feature learning for improved time-series processing. However, generic deep recurrent models grow in scale and depth with increased complexity of the data. This is particularly challenging in presence of high dimensional data with temporal and spatial characteristics. Consequently, this work proposes a novel deep cellular recurrent neural network (DCRNN) architecture to efficiently process complex multi-dimensional time series data with spatial information. Here, the cellular recurrent architecture in the proposed model allows for location-aware synchronous processing of time series data from spatially distributed sensor signal sources. Extensive trainable parameter sharing due to cellularity in the proposed architecture ensures efficiency in the use of recurrent processing units with high-dimensional inputs. This study also investigates the versatility of the proposed DCRNN model for classification of multi-class time series data from different application domains. Consequently, the proposed DCRNN architecture is evaluated using two time-series datasets: a multichannel scalp EEG dataset for seizure detection, and a machine fault detection dataset obtained in-house. The results suggest that the proposed architecture achieves state-of-the-art performance while utilizing substantially less trainable parameters when compared to comparable methods in the literature.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and -IV

Abstract Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year, and surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time (t E) distribution. However, systematics in individual light curves as well as oversimplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and -IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the t E distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and the previous analyses overestimated the number of t E > 100 day events due to their oversimplistic model ignoring parallax effects. We use our fits to identify the hundreds filling a regime in the microlensing parameter space that are 50% pure of black holes. Finally, we have released the largest-ever catalog of Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimates for microlensing events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Some new results concerning the dynamic behavior of annular turbulent seals

The dynamic characteristics of annular turbulent seals applied in high pressure turbopumps can be described by stiffness, damping, and inertia coefficients. An improved procedure is presented for determining these parameters by using measurements made with newly developed test equipment. The dynamic system seal, consisting of the fluid between the cylindrical surfaces of the rotating shaft and the housing, is excited by test forces (input), and the relative motion between the surfaces (output) is measured. Transformation of the input and output time signals into the frequency domain leads to frequency response functions. An analytical model, depending on the seal parameters, is fitted to the measured data in order to identify the dynamic coefficients. Some new results are reported that show the dependencies of these coefficients with respect to the axial and radial Reynolds numbers and the geometrical data of the seal.

Massmann, H.↗