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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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518 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Real-Time Testbed for Smart Inverter Cyber Security Studies

Distributed energy resources (DER) have become a popular solution to modern-day issues surrounding the efficiency and reliability of power generation, as well as climate change concerns. Energy centers are shifting towards incorporating smart inverters with embedded functionalities such as high voltage ride through (HVRT), low voltage ride through (LVRT), active and reactive power compensation. However, the integration of smart inverters leave DER systems highly vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. The distributed network protocol 3 (DNP3) is a common method of communication between grid-tied hardware. Despite its popularity, the level of security leaves all hardware connected to the grid at risk of severe cyber-attacks. Thus, it is important to study any potential cybersecurity threats towards grid-tied smart inverters to mitigate cybersecurity vulnerabilities and refine existing cyber-security protections. This report describes the proposed testbed design to study cybersecurity threats to smart inverters. The testbed utilizes a real-time simulation case in RSCAD that includes a grid-tied wind turbine (WT) topology featuring two back-to-back two-level voltage source converters (BTB,2L-VSCs) and a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM). The simulated case runs within the NovaCor real time digital simulator (RTDS). This report focuses on the design and implementation of a single module of the GTNETx2 card as a distributed network protocol and the configuration of an IEEE 1518 DNP database file that includes input and output variables mapped to different connection points in the grid that transmit and receive discrete, analog, and binary signals on command. This allows realistic emulation of the communication between the smart inverter and the grid for cybersecurity studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Origin of Stabilization of Ligand-Centered Mixed Valence Ruthenium Azopyridine Complexes: DFT Insights for Neuromorphic Applications

Redox-driven conductance changes are critical processes in molecular- and coordination-complex-based memristive thin films and devices that are envisioned for neuromorphic technologies, but fundamental mechanisms of conductance switching are not fully understood. Here, we explore charge disproportionation (CD) processes in [Ru II L 2 ](PF 6 ) 2 molecular systems that intrinsically involve interfragment charge transfer (IFCT). Using a combination of ab initio molecular dynamics simulation (AIMD), time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT), and density functional theory (DFT) calculations, we investigate the electron transfer mechanisms and the roles of temperature and cell volumetric expansion in facilitating the counterion movements and electronic transitions required for low-cost IFCT and charge redistribution. A detailed analysis of the density of states and TD-DFT calculations highlights that unpaired electrons play a crucial role in low-energy transitions, with the azo (N=N) groups of the ligand serving as the primary sites for electronic transport between molecular fragments, further stabilizing the asymmetric state. Localization of added electrons on azo ligands occurs with negligible change at the Ru centers, supported by atomic volume expansions up to +4.74 bohr 3 , and goes along with a progressive reduction of the HOMO−LUMO gap across redox states, suggesting enhanced conductivity. The TD-DFT analysis reveals a dominant IFCT excitation at 2082.76 nm in the doubly reduced (22) state, while a stabilization energy of 1.20 eV of the asymmetric (13) state relative to the symmetric (22) state is predicted by constrained DFT. Periodic DFT and AIMD simulations emulating a molecular film show that the stabilization of the asymmetric state, relative to a symmetric one, translates in net charge separation values (order of ∼0.33 e) that are strongly linked to increased counterion mobility (average counterion displacements exceeding 0.7 Å per atom during CD events) and the involvement of azo groups in electron redistribution. These findings, which align with previously reported experimental and computational data, provide key insights into the IFCT mechanisms and electronic transport facilitated by azo groups, with important implications for redox-driven memristive and neuromorphic technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

TDCOSMO. VII. Boxyness/discyness in lensing galaxies: Detectability and impact on H 0

In the context of gravitational lensing, the density profile of lensing galaxies is often considered to be perfectly elliptical. Potential angular structures are generally ignored, except to explain flux ratios of point-like sources (i.e. flux ratio anomalies). Surprisingly, the impact of azimuthal structures on extended images of the source has not been characterised, nor has its impact on the H 0 inference. We address this task by creating mock images of a point source embedded in an extended source and lensed by an elliptical galaxy on which multipolar components are added to emulate boxy or discy isodensity contours. Modelling such images with a density profile free of angular structure allows us to explore the detectability of image deformation induced by the multipoles in the residual frame. Multipole deformations are almost always detectable for our highest signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) mock data. However, the detectability depends on the lens ellipticity and Einstein radius, on the S/N of the data, and on the specific lens modelling strategy. Multipoles also introduce small changes to the time-delays. We therefore quantify how undetected multipoles would impact H 0 inference. When no multipoles are detected in the residuals, the impact on H 0 for a given lens is in general less than a few k ms -1 Mpc -1 , but in the worst-case scenario, combining low S/N in the ring and large intrinsic boxyness or discyness, the bias on H0 can reach 10-12 km s -1 Mpc -1 . If we now look at the inference on H 0 from a population of lensing galaxies with a distribution of multipoles representative of what is found in the light profile of elliptical galaxies, we find a systematic bias on H 0 of less than 1%. A comparison of our mock systems to the state-of-the-art time-delay lens sample studied by the H0LiCOW and TDCOSMO collaborations indicates that multipoles are currently unlikely to be a source of substantial systematic bias on the inferred value of H 0 from time-delay lenses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Polymorphism and Optoelectronic Properties in Crystalline Supramolecular Polymers

Supramolecular polymers can emulate some of the physical properties of covalent polymers but offer new opportunities given the possibility of designing monomers that will form highly ordered assemblies with defined shapes. Internally ordered supramolecular polymers formed through nucleation–elongation self-assembly are well-known but highly crystalline examples which exhibit important properties such as light harvesting, charge transport, and ferroelectricity are not common. We report here on a detailed study of supramolecular polymers formed in water by carboxylated naphtho-p-quinodimethane amphiphiles. We found that supramolecular polymerization of these amphiphiles in aqueous media yields crystalline assemblies with morphologies that included ribbons, helically rolled ribbons, and twisted filaments. This polymorphism was found to be controlled exclusively by repulsive electrostatic interactions controlled by the degree of protonation of the carboxylic head groups which also dictates the nature of supramolecular packing. Substoichiometric amounts of base lead to highly crystalline ribbons due to a decreased surface charge density and less electrostatic repulsion. Increasing deprotonation results in helically rolled ribbons with a different polymorph crystal lattice, whereas excessive deprotonation leads to twisted filaments with maximum surface charge density. Ribbons, helical rolled ribbons, and twisted filaments revealed an increasing red shift in their visible absorption maxima. These crystalline assemblies could be potential candidates for solar energy materials and photocatalytic systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

MetaPoL: Immersive VR based Indoor Patterns of Life (PoL) and Anomalies Data Generation for Insider Threat Modeling in Nuclear Security

Insider threats are perhaps the most serious challenges that nuclear and radiological security systems face. Insiders pose such a great threat due to their access, authority, and knowledge, granting them opportunities to bypass dedicated nuclear and radiological security elements. For example, in one of the latest major insider threat incidents to nuclear security, the Doel-4 nuclear powerplant in Belgium suffered a shutdown, the threat of nuclear materials diversion, and long-term loss of tens of millions of dollars. Seven years of investigation concluded that it was an inside job and attempted sabotage. In this regard, there is an immediate need for R&D and technology integration in the domain of modeling indoor Patterns-of-Life (PoL) and anomaly detection. This can be achieved by using datasets of facility users’ mobility and activity, which can support the design of algorithms for insider threat modeling and detection. However, due to classification, privacy, sensitivity, and safety protocols, such datasets from real physical nuclear reactor facilities are not only hard to share, but also not always feasible to deploy and collect. Aiming to find an alternate solution, our proposed demonstration work - MetaPoL, is the first-ever (for the application space) immersive VR (virtual reality) environment of a real-world secure facility and allows users to move-and-stay through the designed indoor physical layout and also encounter NPCs (non-player characters) that emulate other facility users. In the MetaPoL an interactive user performs realistic spatio-temporal movement, dwelling and activities using a Meta Quest Pro VR headset, and that generates high-frequency (in time) high-resolution (in space) indoor spatial-temporal datasets that are valuable for PoL modeling and anomaly detection research specifically for insider threat modeling and detection mission. Such generated realistic, rich in context, and mission specific datasets can boost AI/Machine Learning based research for modeling and detecting insider threats in nuclear security and nonproliferation.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2022

A gradient-based deep neural network model for simulating multiphase flow in porous media

We report simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is crucial for the effective management of subsurface energy and environment-related activities. The numerical simulators used for modeling such processes rely on spatial and temporal discretization of the governing mass and energy balance partial-differential equations (PDEs) into algebraic systems via finite-difference/volume/element methods. These simulators usually require dedicated software development and maintenance, and suffer low efficiency from a runtime and memory standpoint for problems with multi-scale heterogeneity, coupled-physics processes or fluids with complex phase behavior. Therefore, developing cost-effective, data-driven models can become a practical choice, and in this work, we choose deep learning approaches as they can handle high dimensional data and accurately predict state variables with strong nonlinearity. In this paper, we describe a gradient-based deep neural network (GDNN) constrained by the physics related to multiphase flow in porous media. We tackle the nonlinearity of flow in porous media induced by rock heterogeneity, fluid properties, and fluid-rock interactions by decomposing the nonlinear PDEs into a dictionary of elementary differential operators. We use a combination of operators to handle rock spatial heterogeneity and fluid flow by advection. Since the augmented differential operators are inherently related to the physics of fluid flow, we treat them as first principles prior knowledge to regularize the GDNN training. We use the example of pressure management at geologic CO 2 storage sites, where CO 2 is injected in saline aquifers and brine is produced, and apply GDNN to construct a predictive model that is trained with physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. We demonstrate that GDNN can effectively predict the nonlinear patterns of subsurface responses, including the temporal and spatial evolution of the pressure and saturation plumes. We also successfully extend the GDNN to convolutional neural network (CNN), namely gradient-based CNN (GCNN), and validate its capability to improve the prediction accuracy. GDNN has great potential to tackle challenging problems that are governed by highly nonlinear physics and enable the development of data-driven models with higher fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power Production, Inter- and Intra-Array Wake Losses from the U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

There is an urgent need to develop accurate predictions of power production, wake losses and array–array interactions from multi-GW offshore wind farms in order to enable developments that maximize power benefits, minimize levelized cost of energy and reduce investment uncertainty. New, climatologically representative simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are presented and analyzed to address these research needs with a specific focus on offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. These, uniquely detailed, simulations are designed to quantify important sources of wake-loss projection uncertainty. They sample across different wind turbine deployment scenarios and thus span the range of plausible installed capacity densities (ICDs) and also include two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs; Fitch and explicit wake parameterization (EWP)) and consider the precise WRF model release used. System-wide mean capacity factors for ICDs of 3.5 to 6.0 MWkm−2 range from 39 to 45% based on output from Fitch and 50 to 55% from EWP. Wake losses are 27–37% (Fitch) and 11–19% (EWP). The discrepancy in CF and wake losses from the two WFPs derives from two linked effects. First, EWP generates a weaker ‘deep array effect’ within the largest wind farm cluster (area of 3675 km2), though both parameterizations indicate substantial within-array wake losses. If 15 MW wind turbines are deployed at an ICD of 6 MWkm−2 the most heavily waked wind turbines generate an average of only 32–35% of the power of those that experience the freestream (undisturbed) flow. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for saturation of the resource. The wind power density (electrical power generation per unit of surface area) increases with ICD and lies between 2 and 3 Wm−2. Second, EWP also systematically generates smaller whole wind farm wakes. Sampling across all offshore wind energy lease areas and the range of ICD considered, the whole wind farm wake extent for a velocity deficit of 5% is 1.18 to 1.38 times larger in simulations with Fitch. Over three-quarters of the variability in normalized wake extents is attributable to variations in freestream wind speeds, turbulent kinetic energy and boundary layer depth. These dependencies on meteorological parameters allow for the development of computationally efficient emulators of wake extents from Fitch and EWP.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural operators for stochastic modeling of nonlinear structural system response to natural hazards

Traditionally, neural networks have been employed to learn the mapping between finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, recent research has opened up new horizons, focusing on the utilization of deep neural networks to learn operators capable of mapping infinite-dimensional function spaces. Here, in this work, we employ two state-of-the-art neural operators, the deep operator network (DeepONet) and the Fourier neural operator (FNO) for the prediction of the nonlinear time history response of structural systems exposed to natural hazards, such as earthquakes and windstorms. Specifically, we propose two architectures, a self-adaptive FNO and a fast Fourier transform-based DeepONet (DeepFNOnet), where we employ a FNO beyond the DeepONet to learn the discrepancy between the ground truth and the solution predicted by the DeepONet. To demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the architectures, two problems are considered. In the first, we use the proposed model to predict the seismic nonlinear dynamic response of a six-story shear building subject to stochastic ground motions. In the second problem, we employ the operators to predict the wind-induced nonlinear dynamic response of a high-rise building while explicitly accounting for the stochastic nature of the wind excitation. In both cases, the trained metamodels achieve high accuracy while being orders of magnitude faster than their corresponding high-fidelity models.

DeepONet↗
DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance assessment of a real water source heat pump within a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing environment

Over the last decade, the global fight against climate change through electrification has led to an increase in research on building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems that utilize intelligent control algorithms to provide demand-side grid service while also maintaining the thermal comfort of building occupants. As the pivotal point between building electricity consumption and indoor thermal comfort, high-efficiency electrical vapor-compression heat pumps are at the center of these emerging studies, and various grid-interactive and occupant-comfort control algorithms have been developed for them. The impact of these algorithms on heat pump operation and performance when subjected to different weather conditions, building loads, and grid requests calls for investigation and verification via experimental testing with actual heat pumps integrated with real-time building and grid responses. This study introduces a Water-Source Heat Pump (WSHP) Hardware-in-The-Loop (HIL) Test Facility that is the first of its kind. This testbed utilizes a 2-ton variable speed water-to-air heat pump that is capable of interacting with a virtual environment currently comprised of an EnergyPlus (E+) building simulation, an agent-based occupant behavioral model, and a single U-tube ground-loop heat exchanger (GLHE) model. Detailed descriptions of the testbed’s physical design and operation, virtual environment, as well as their mutual communication is provided. An uncertainty analysis is also performed under manufacturer specified heating and cooling design conditions. This analysis shows that the total load across the WSHP’s demand side heat exchanger, i.e., the sum of its latent and sensible components, can be measured with a relative uncertainty of ± 10.4% and ± 3.6% in cooling and heating mode respectively. The WSHP’s coefficient of performance (COP) can be measured with relative uncertainties of ± 10.4% in cooling mode, and ± 3.7% in heating mode. A preliminary 24-h experimental demonstration is then performed utilizing the DOE prototype small commercial office building model in E+. The simulation takes place in Atlanta, GA on the date of 08/26/15 from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM using TMY3 weather data. Here, the results from this demonstration show that over the course of this experiment the simulated outputs of zone dry-bulb temperature, zone humidity ratio, and WSHP inlet water temperature can be tracked by testbed emulators up to a root mean squared error (RMSE) of ± 0.27 °C, ± 0.376 g/kg, and ± 0.85 °C respectively. The WSHP’s dynamic behavioral characteristics and performance are also captured, and correspond well with the authors’ previous understanding of heat pump efficiency as a function of evaporator and condenser fluid inlet conditions respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new calibration method for charm jet identification validated with proton-proton collision events at $\sqrt{s}$ =13 TeV

Many measurements at the LHC require efficient identification of heavy-flavour jets, i.e. jets originating from bottom (b) or charm (c) quarks. An overview of the algorithms used to identify c jets is described and a novel method to calibrate them is presented. This new method adjusts the entire distributions of the outputs obtained when the algorithms are applied to jets of different flavours. It is based on an iterative approach exploiting three distinct control regions that are enriched with either b jets, c jets, or light-flavour and gluon jets. Results are presented in the form of correction factors evaluated using proton-proton collision data with an integrated luminosity of 41.5 fb$^{-1}$ at √s = 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. The closure of the method is tested by applying the measured correction factors on simulated data sets and checking the agreement between the adjusted simulation and collision data. Furthermore, a validation is performed by testing the method on pseudodata, which emulate various mismodelling conditions. The calibrated results enable the use of the full distributions of heavy-flavour identification algorithm outputs, e.g. as inputs to machine-learning models. Thus, they are expected to increase the sensitivity of future physics analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vitrification of Hanford Tank Wastes for Condensate Recycle and Feed Composition Changeover Testing

During the vitrification of Hanford Site nuclear waste at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), which is a part of the safe and efficient retrieval, treatment, and disposal mission of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of River Protection, the offgas condensate generated from the waste-to-glass conversion is currently planned to be concentrated by evaporation in the Effluent Management Facility (EMF). This concentrated condensate can then be recycled back to the incoming waste and vitrified. To test the recycle process, an apparatus was designed and built to mimic the EMF evaporator and was then used to concentrate a volume of condensate produced during the vitrification of a sample of Hanford tank 241-AP-107 (referred to herein as AP-107) waste in a continuous laboratory-scale melter (CLSM). The concentrated condensate was added to an additional sample of AP-107 waste, to mimic one round of the recycle process, and the combined solution was vitrified, producing a second round of recycle condensate. In the current study, the EMF test apparatus was used to concentrate the second-round recycle condensate under evaporation conditions (at 45 °C and 1.4 psia) designed to emulate EMF operation. The condensate was successfully concentrated by a factor of ~10 while retaining over 95 % of the technetium-99 ( 99 Tc), Cs, and I inventories in the concentrate. Another portion of AP-107 waste was retrieved by Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC (WRPS) and transferred to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where it was pretreated and then combined with the second-round recycle AP-107 condensate concentrate and glass-forming chemicals (GFCs) to form the two-time recycle AP-107 melter feed, approximating a second round to the recycling action to be performed at the WTP. A portion of AP-105 waste was also retrieved by WRPS and provided to PNNL for pretreatment and combining with GFCs to form AP-105 melter feed. The two-time recycle AP-107 and AP-105 melter feeds were processed consecutively in the CLSM. The CLSM run proceeded for 13.63 hours, producing 9.70 kg of glass for an average glass production rate of 1464 kg m 2 d -1 during the two-time recycle AP-107 feed charging and 1568 kg m 2 d -1 during the AP-105 feed charging. The rate during AP-107 charging was essentially equivalent to the rate when processing no-recycle AP-107 feed and lower than that achieved when processing one-time recycle AP-107 feed. However, all rates were within the potential range of variability when processing melter feeds with similar composition in the CLSM. Likewise, the rate during AP-105 charging was higher than the previous rate processing AP-105, but within the potential CLSM range. The cold-cap characteristics changed from the typically thin AP-107 cold cap to a foamy-edged cold cap as previously seen with AP-105 shortly after transitioning to the AP-105 melter feed. The glass produced during the CLSM run was within 10 % of its target composition for the primary glass components. The CaO and Li 2 O targets varied by more than 1 wt% between the two-time recycle AP-107 and AP-105 glass targets and it took about 2 turnovers of the CLSM glass inventory to reach a relative chemical steady state in the glass for CaO and Li 2 O after the melter feed inputs were switched. The 99 Tc and total cesium content in the melter feeds were maintained at concentrations expected to be experienced at the WTP. During the CLSM run, while processing the two-time recycle AP-107 melter feed at a relative chemical steady state, the 99 Tc/Cs ratio was 10, and 34% of 99 Tc and 74% of Cs were retained in the glass. These values were higher than those measured in the CLSM run with one-time recycle AP-107 melter feed. After the transition to processing the AP-105 melter feed, when the production reached a relative chemical steady state, the 99 Tc/Cs ratio was 77 while 44% of 99 Tc was retained in the glass. The C's retention during this time frame reached 200% due to the excess C's in the glass after the target content decreased to 15% of its initial level in the two-time recycle AP-107 melter feed to the lower target in the Ap-105 melter feed. While iodine was below inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analytical reporting limits in the melter feed and glass samples, it was detected in quantities above the analytical reporting limits in the liquid and filter samples collected from the CLSM offgas treatment system. The behavior of iodine in the CLSM offgas treatment system followed a similar pattern to those of 99 Tc and Cs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗