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At least 523 records · Page 29

Efficient Contingency Analysis in Power Systems via Network Trigger Nodes

Modeling failure dynamics within a power system is a complex and challenging process due to multiple inter-dependencies and convoluted inter-domain relationships. Subject matter experts (SMEs) are interested in understanding these failure dynamics for reducing the impact from future disasters (i.e., losses or failures of power system components, such as transmission lines). Contingency analysis (CA) tools enable such ’what-if’ scenario analyses to evaluate the impacts on the power system. Analyzing all possible contingencies among N system components can be computationally expensive. An important step for performing CA is identifying a set of k ‘trigger’ components, which when failed initially can significantly impact the overall system by causing multiple failures. Currently SMEs focus on identifying these trigger components by running expensive simulations on all possible subsets, which quickly becomes infeasible. Hence finding a relevant set of trigger components (contingencies) rapidly to enable efficient and useful CA is crucial.In a collaboration between computer scientists and power system experts, we propose an efficient method for performing CA by exploiting network inter-dependencies in power system components. First, we construct a network with multiple electric grid infrastructure components and dependencies as connections among them. We reformulate the problem of finding a set of trigger components as a problem of identifying critical nodes in the network, which can cascade power failures through connected nodes and cause significant damage to the network. To guide the practical CA tools, we develop a network-based model with a probabilistic edge-weights setup using intricate domain rules. Then we conduct an empirical study on real power system data in the US for both regional and national levels. Firstly, we use power system datasets for the US to create a national-scale domain-driven model. Secondly, we demonstrate that network-based model outperforms the outputs from a real CA tool and show on average 25 × improved selection of contingencies, thereby showcasing practical benefits to the power experts.

Tabassum, Anika↗

Model-based compositional predictions for a differential scanning calorimetry/thermogravimetric analysis-mass spectrometry system used for heat of vaporization measurements

A Differential Scanning Calorimetry/Thermogravimetric Analysis (DSC/TGA) procedure for determination of Heat of Vaporization (HOV) of fuel and surrogate fuel mixtures has been previously utilized for evaluation of oxygenate impacts on spark ignition fuels. This analysis has been further leveraged with mass spectrometry (MS) to elucidate vapor phase compositional changes during evaporation. In this study we focus on a simple system of three compounds (ethanol, n-hexane, and n-octane) to provide a model-based understanding of the evaporation process under these experimental conditions. An Aspen Plus model was set up to provide liquid and vapor phase concentration predictions during mixture evaporation using the initial mixture composition, and measured temperature and mass loss profiles from DSC/TGA experiments. Agreements between the trends of the MS ion count profiles and model composition predictions provide a degree of validation of this modeling approach that can allow the interpretation and extrapolation of DSC/TGA measurements for more complex fuel mixtures.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeling Data Flows with Network Calculus in Cyber-Physical Systems: Enabling Feature Analysis for Anomaly Detection Applications

The electric grid is becoming increasingly cyber-physical with the addition of smart technologies, new communication interfaces, and automated grid-support functions. Because of this, it is no longer sufficient to only study the physical system dynamics, but the cyber system must also be monitored as well to examine cyber-physical interactions and effects on the overall system. To address this gap for both operational and security needs, cyber-physical situational awareness is needed to monitor the system to detect any faults or malicious activity. Techniques and models to understand the physical system (the power system operation) exist, but methods to study the cyber system are needed, which can assist in understanding how the network traffic and changes to network conditions affect applications such as data analysis, intrusion detection systems (IDS), and anomaly detection. In this paper, we examine and develop models of data flows in communication networks of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) and explore how network calculus can be utilized to develop those models for CPSs, with a focus on anomaly and intrusion detection. This provides a foundation for methods to examine how changes to behavior in the CPS can be modeled and for investigating cyber effects in CPSs in anomaly detection applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven Vulnerability Analysis of Networked Pipeline System

This paper introduces an attack generation framework for evaluating the vulnerability of nonlinear networked pipeline systems. The vulnerability analysis is formulated as determining the presence of feasible attack sets, defined by boundary functions representing the effectiveness and stealthiness of attack signals with respect to the objective and attack detection module. The framework utilizes three data-driven models, including two discriminative models that learn the boundary functions and a generative model that produces elements of the feasible attack set. A new loss function ensures successful attack generation with high probability.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Bridging the Gap on Data and Analysis for Distribution System Planning: Information That Utilities Can Provide Regulators, State Energy Offices and Other Stakeholders

Electric utilities conduct planning annually to ensure their distribution system meets technical standards, policies, and regulations; addresses forecasted grid conditions; satisfies customer needs; and advances utility priorities. The plan identifies grid deficiencies, analyzes potential solutions, and prioritizes capital investments and other expenditures. About 20 U.S. states and jurisdictions require regulated utilities to file some type of distribution system plan with the public utility commission for review. Requirements for sharing distribution system data and analyses vary widely, from few specific requirements to a detailed list of information that must be provided. While utilities conduct extensive analysis to develop distribution system plans, in most jurisdictions regulators and stakeholders do not know what data are available and how the utility uses the data in planning and investing. This report aims to bridge the gap by increasing understanding of the types of data and analyses utilities employ to develop distribution system plans and how the information affects their decision-making. The report describes information that states and stakeholders can ask for related to 11 data categories: -Forecasting loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) -Scenario analysis -Worst-performing circuits -Asset management strategy -Hosting capacity analysis -Value of DERs -Grid needs assessment -Cost-effectiveness framework for investments -Distribution system investment strategy and implementation -Geotargeted programs -Non-wires alternatives procurements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Numerical Validation of an Algorithm for Combined Soiling and Degradation Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems

We describe and demonstrate an open-source algorithm for simultaneously quantifying degradation and soiling of photovoltaic (PV) systems from energy-production time series data. The new analysis is based on year-on-year degradation rate analysis combined with stochastic rate and recovery soiling analysis. The algorithm is designed to fit into the workflow provided by RdTools, a Python module maintained by NREL and collaboratively developed with the community, which provides a framework and functions for degradation and loss-factor analysis of PV field data. We demonstrate the method on numerically simulated PV data sets and show that it reduces the root-mean-square error of the P50 degradation rate estimate when soiling is present.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Non-Stationary Power System Forced Oscillation Analysis using Synchrosqueezing Transform

Non-stationary forced oscillations (FOs) have been observed in power system operations. However, most detection methods assume that the frequency of FOs is stationary. In this paper, we present a methodology for the analysis of nonstationary FOs. Firstly, Fourier synchrosqueezing transform (FSST) is used to provide a concentrated time-frequency representation of the signals that allows identification and retrieval of non-stationary signal components. To continue, the Dissipating Energy Flow (DEF) method is applied to the extracted components to locate the source of forced oscillations. The methodology is tested using simulated as well as real PMU data. In conclusion, the results show that the proposed FSST-based signal decomposition provides a systematic framework for the application of DEF Method to non-stationary FOs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Numerical and experimental analysis of precooled desiccant system

This paper presents a numerical and experimental study of four novel, desiccant air-conditioning systems based on pre-cooling of the ambient air. The purpose of the study is to: 1) establish which configuration is most profitable for the future studies through numerical and experimental methods; 2) verify the concept of precooled system and confirm that it is working in experimental conditions (for this purpose two prototypes of evaporative cooling units were developed and compared for different operation arrangements with desiccant wheel); 3) Analyze practical aspects of the systems, which includes water consumption analysis, economic analysis and establishing operational modes during a cooling season in temperate climate conditions (the proposed solution has a significant advantage during operation in a temperate climate, since it can utilize its first evaporative cooler the only source of cooling energy when the humidity of outdoor air allows to to meet the latent cooling load). Four arrangements of the system with different dew point evaporative air cooler prototypes were selected and developed for comparative analysis. The system was simulated as a whole, also, each component was individually tested on measurement station. develop the optimal arrangement of the system through numerical and experimental analysis. Four different performance indicators were considered: thermal COP (Coefficient Of Performance), the ERR (Energy Efficiency Ratio), coefficient a describing the potential in compensating indoor cooling loads, water consumption ratio. Also costs of the systems were compared through economic analysis. It was established that arrangement which is characterized by best-averaged performance in terms of all considered factors is a unit combined with two different types of evaporative coolers (marked as System B)- this is caused by the favorable arrangement of two units, where one is better suited to the pre-cooler role, while the other is better suited as the post-cooler.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Using Systems Theoretic Process Analysis and Causal Analysis to Map and Manage Organizational Information to Enable Digitalization and Information Automation

The overarching goal of this Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program–supported research and development project is to provide planning tools and comprehensive guidance to utilities considering or undertaking full nuclear plant modernization. The results of this research will provide the nuclear industry with a comprehensive and usable solution, including guidance, lessons learned, methods, and planning tools. This research is currently working to provide guidance on digitalization and information automation to enable the evolution of data to information, insight, and action—thereby allowing utilities to operate safely and cost-competitively with all other electrical generation sources. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program researchers have also recently started investigating how human and technology integration principles, information automation, and digitalization enable data evolution. These researchers are currently in the process of validating the use of System-Theoretic Process Analysis to define high-level safety constraints in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s problem identification and resolution process (i.e., a plant compliance information gathering activity). The next step in this research, which is described in the following sections of this report, is to map out data evolution in a use case to identify inefficiencies in another aspect of plant compliance information gathering and communication activities—event investigations and root cause analyses.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Redundancy-Guided Approach for the Hazard Analysis of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Advanced Nuclear Power Plants

We report digital instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades are a vital research area for the nuclear industry. Despite their performance benefits, deployment of digital I&C in nuclear power plants (NPPs) has been limited. Digital I&C systems exhibit complex failure modes including common cause failures (CCFs), which can be difficult to identify. This paper describes the development of a redundancy-guided application of the Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis and fault tree analysis for the hazard analysis of digital I&C in advanced NPPs. The resulting Redundancy-Guided Systems-Theoretic Hazard Analysis (RESHA) is applied for the case study of a representative state-of-the-art digital reactor trip system. The analysis qualitatively and systematically identifies the most critical CCFs and other hazards of digital I&C systems. Ultimately, the RESHA can help researchers make informed decisions for how, and to what degree, defensive measures such as redundancy, diversity, and defense in depth can be used to mitigate or eliminate the potential hazards of digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application of Detectability Analysis for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

To guide the measurement placement and selection for dynamic state estimation in power systems, it is important to determine the existence of an observer that can estimate the dynamic states. Past studies have been focused on observability analysis, which determines whether the initial states can be uniquely determined. In this paper, detectability analysis is proposed to determine whether the current states can be estimated as time involving. Through the proposed detectability analysis, the states of an unobservable system can be categorized into the detectable states and undetectable states. It is shown that if the eigenvalues corresponding to the unobservable states are stable, the states are detectable and their estimates will converge to the true ones asymptotically. The study can be used to guide measurement placement and selection.

Detectability, dynamic state estimation↗

Cost- and Risk-Based Seismic Design Optimization of Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

Seismic analysis, design, and qualification of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) is a significant contributor to the capital cost of a nuclear power plant. To reduce capital costs of advanced nuclear power plants and make commercial nuclear energy more competitive, innovations are needed in their structural design and construction, and not just in the reactor core and associated systems. Seismic isolation has been identified as an important cost-cutting technology that enables standardization of equipment across various sites. This paper develops and demonstrates a cost- and risk-based seismic design optimization of a representative safety system in a nuclear power plant with the dual goals of minimizing overnight capital cost and meeting safety goals. The design optimization can also include component seismic isolation, in which case, the optimized design includes a set of equipment that needs to be seismically isolated to minimize capital cost. The open-source codes MASTODON and Dakota are used for seismic probabilistic risk assessment and design optimization, respectively. A generic nuclear facility with a safety system comprising SSCs that are common to nuclear power plants is considered for the demonstration of the design optimization and is assumed to be located at the Idaho National Laboratory site. Generic costs and seismic design cost functions are assumed for the SSCs of the safety system. The sum of the costs of the SSCs is minimized in the optimization process, while the risk of failure of the safety system is provided as a constraint. Furthermore, results show that the optimization process reduces capital costs significantly while automatically prioritizing the safety of SSCs that contribute most to the risk of the safety system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Insights from Optimizing HPL Performance on Exascale Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Panel Factorization

High performance LINPACK (HPL) remains the primary benchmark for evaluating supercomputing performance. It includes many parts with substantial internal complexity, and its performance is affected by a large number of parameters that interact in ways that are difficult to predict on large-scale heterogeneous supercomputer systems. We present a comprehensive performance analysis of HPL on Frontier, the world’s first exascale supercomputer, which achieved HPL performance of 1.35 exaflops. Through empirical parameter tuning, detailed modeling, and comparative evaluation, we uncover critical performance insights, share lessons learned, and outline best practices for effective parameter tuning on exascale systems. We introduce and evaluate two novel PDFACT strategies: a dedicated-thread (DT) variant and a GPU-based variant (GPUPDFACT) implementation using HIP cooperative groups, demonstrating that GPU-based factorization outperforms conventional CPU-based PDFACT on Frontier’s architecture. Our findings establish key performance factors for HPL on exascale systems and offer valuable guidance for future high-performance computing and benchmarking efforts.

Lu, Hao [ORNL] (ORCID:000000018941870X)↗

Modeling and Energy Analysis of Refrigeration Systems in Supermarkets: A Case Study

Refrigeration systems are the single largest consumer of electricity in supermarkets, accounting for approximately 40–60% of total store electricity use. As supermarkets face increasing pressures to improve efficiency and reduce operational costs, understanding the energy performance of refrigeration systems in supermarkets has become essential. In this paper, we investigate the energy performance and patterns of the refrigeration system using field measurements in one supermarket. The compressor coefficient of performance (COP) averaged 4.5 during nighttime steady-state operation, providing a practical efficiency benchmark. We develop simple physical-based load models for the display cases in the supermarket, where the refrigeration system uses R404A. The results show the display case models achieve a good agreement with measured data, validating its utility for energy estimation during unoccupied hours. Finally, the analysis reveals several challenges of data collection systems for refrigeration systems in the supermarket industry as well.

Chen, Yimin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000338181655)↗

Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.

distribution system analysis↗

Advanced Turbine Airfoils for Efficient CHP Systems: Energy Storage Integration Analysis

This report documents the energy storage systems (ESS) integration portion of the work conducted under the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) Lab Call DE-LC-000L059 project titled "Advanced Turbine Airfoils for Efficient CHP Systems." The objective of this work is to analyze the previously-developed combined heat and power (CHP) plant with the upgraded gas turbine to include an ESS to improve the operational flexibility. The analysis includes identifying a candidate CHP configuration for the ESS integration and identifying possible storage systems to be integrated. A qualitative analysis was made to down select possible storage technologies and a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was made for the CHP system with the selected storage technology.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Safety Risk Reliability Model Library

SR2ML is a software package which contains a set of safety and reliability models designed to be interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code. These models can be employed to perform both static and dynamic system risk analysis and determine risk importance of specific elements of the considered system. Two classes of reliability models have been developed; the first class includes all classical reliability models (Fault-Trees, Event-Trees, Markov models and Reliability Block Diagrams) which have been extended to deal not only with Boolean logic values but also time dependent values. The second class includes several components aging models. Models of these two classes are designed to be included in a RAVEN ensemble model to perform time dependent system reliability analysis (dynamic analysis). Similarly, these models can be interfaced with system analysis codes to determine failure time of systems and evaluate accident progression (static analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗