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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29

Reliable extrapolation of deep neural operators informed by physics or sparse observations

Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Dispersion-enhanced sequential batch sampling for adaptive contour estimation

In computer simulation and optimal design, sequential batch sampling offers an appealing way to iteratively stipulate optimal sampling points based upon existing selections and efficiently construct surrogate modeling. Nonetheless, the issue of near duplicates poses tremendous quandary for sequential learning. It refers to the situation that selected critical points cluster together in each sampling batch, which are individually but not collectively informative towards the optimal design. Near duplicates severely diminish the computational efficiency as they barely contribute extra information towards update of the surrogate. To address this issue, we impose a dispersion criterion on concurrent selection of sampling points, which essentially forces a sparse distribution of critical points in each batch, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in adaptive contour estimation. Specifically, we adopt Gaussian process surrogate to emulate the simulator, acquire variance reduction of the critical region from new sampling points as a dispersion criterion, and combine it with the modified expected improvement (EI) function for critical batch selection. The critical region here is the proximity of the contour of interest. This proposed approach is vindicated in numerical examples of a two-dimensional four-branch function, a four-dimensional function with a disjoint contour of interest and a time-delay dynamic system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Non-autoregressive time-series methods for stable parametric reduced-order models

Advection-dominated dynamical systems, characterized by partial differential equations, are found in applications ranging from weather forecasting to engineering design where accuracy and robustness are crucial. There has been significant interest in the use of techniques borrowed from machine learning to reduce the computational expense and/or improve the accuracy of predictions for these systems. These rely on the identification of a basis that reduces the dimensionality of the problem and the subsequent use of time series and sequential learning methods to forecast the evolution of the reduced state. Often, however, machine-learned predictions after reduced-basis projection are plagued by issues of stability stemming from incomplete capture of multiscale processes as well as due to error growth for long forecast durations. To address these issues, we have developed a non-autoregressive time series approach for predicting linear reduced-basis time histories of forward models. In particular, we demonstrate that non-autoregressive counterparts of sequential learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) considerably improve the stability of machine-learned reduced-order models. Further, we evaluate our approach on the inviscid shallow water equations and show that a non-autoregressive variant of the standard LSTM approach that is bidirectional in the principal component directions obtains the best accuracy for recreating the nonlinear dynamics of partial observations. Moreover-and critical for many applications of these surrogates-inference times are reduced by three orders of magnitude using our approach, compared with both the equation-based Galerkin projection method and the standard LSTM approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Damage progression and failure of SiC/SiC composite tubes under hard-contact radial expansion

The response of silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composite cladding to mechanical interaction with fissile fuel is a knowledge gap that must be overcome to design and assess SiC-based cladding systems for advanced nuclear applications. This study developed the relevant mechanical testing capability and identified the failure behavior and the critical microstructural features and processing defects. Sections of SiC composite tube were subjected to a modified expansion-due-to-compression (EDC) test in an X-ray computed tomography microscope: a polyurethane plug pressed surrogate Al 2 O 3 into the inner walls of the SiC/SiC composite tubes to achieve hard contact. A pure EDC test with just a polyurethane plug was also performed as a reference. Through the use of displacement fields, digital volume correlation revealed inhomogeneous deformation fields in the tubes, even for pure EDC, which was related to the inherent defects in the structure. Deep learning–aided segmentation and systematic data analysis revealed that the presence of inhomogeneous deformation applied by the hard contact was exaggerated by the presence of inner surface imperfections left behind from the matrix densification process. In conclusion, the findings provide insights into the applications, highlighting the necessity for improvements in inner surface roughness and the incorporation of localized contacts in pellet–cladding mechanical interaction computational models.

Composites↗

Transit Rider/Travel Behavior Inventory Survey - Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro - 1990

The 1990 transit on-board survey aimed to update the 1988 survey, which was conducted as part of the Preliminary Engineering Study for the Hennepin County Light Rail Transit System. The 1988 study received Regional Transit Board funding, and survey results could be applied to a mode split model for projecting ridership on the proposed Light Rail Transit System. However, this survey was designed with the 1990 Travel Behavior Inventory in mind. The intention had been to update the 1988 survey in 1990 to be compatible with the 1990 Travel Behavior Inventory data. The results of the 1990 survey were used primarily to create a table of observed transit trips between each of the 1,200 traffic analysis zones in the region. This trip table was used to calibrate a new mode split model, which estimated future year travel by mode. The 1990 update survey focused on new routes and routes that had changed significantly since 1988. To preserve compatibility with the 1988 survey, the same survey questionnaire card was used, together with the same survey procedures for data collection. The procedures randomly sampled bus patrons during the transit trip, asking key questions about the patron and the transit trip. The survey card was intended for patrons to fill out quickly so it could be completed during the transit trip. The questions focused on conditions that have proven over time to significantly influence ridership. In all, a total of 20,126 valid survey records were processed. Adding surrogate trips, the survey data file is composed of a total of 27,159 trip records . About 10% of the records were filled out by persons who had answered more than one questionnaire.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of GlassNet for physics-informed machine learning of glass stability and glass-forming ability

Glassy materials form the basis of many modern applications, including nuclear waste immobilization, touch-screen displays, and optical fibers, and also hold great potential for future medical and environmental applications. However, their structural complexity and large composition space make design and optimization challenging for certain applications. Of particular importance for glass processing and design is an estimate of a given composition's glass-forming ability (GFA). However, there remain many open questions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms of glass formation, especially in oxide glasses. It is apparent that a proxy for GFA would be highly useful in glass processing and design, but identifying such a surrogate property has proven itself to be difficult. While glass stability (GS) parameters have historically been used as a GFA surrogate, recent research has demonstrated that most of these parameters are not accurate predictors of the GFA of oxide glasses. Here, in this work, we explore the application of an open-source pre-trained neural network model, GlassNet, that can predict the characteristic temperatures necessary to compute GS with reasonable performance and assess the feasibility of using these physics-informed machine learning (PIML)-predicted GS parameters to estimate GFA. In doing so, we track the uncertainties at each step of the computation—from the original ML prediction errors to the compounding of errors during GS estimation, and finally to the final estimation of GFA. While GlassNet exhibits reasonable accuracy on all individual properties, we observe a large compounding of error in the combination of these individual predictions for the PIML prediction of GS, finding that random forest models offer similar accuracy to GlassNet. We also break down the performance of GlassNet on different glass families and find that the error in GS prediction is correlated with the error in crystallization peak temperature prediction. Lastly, we utilize this finding to assess the relationship between top-performing GS parameters and GFA for two ternary glass systems: sodium borosilicate and sodium iron phosphate glasses. We conclude that to obtain true ML predictive capability of GFA, significantly more data needs to be collected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CRCNS22 Learning Rules in the Hippocampus and their Mapping to Neuromorphic Systems (Final Technical Report)

Large scale biologically-realistic computational models are key to investigating the interplay between structure and function in nervous systems, thus paving the way to new clinical methods and neuro-inspired computing solutions. This project focuses on the hippocampus, in particular the CA3-CA1 regions, due to their role in associative learning and memory, pattern separation and completion, and spatial navigation. Investigations into the neuronal organization and learning rule(s) of this circuit can shed light into how declarative memories are formed, stored, recalled and forgotten and inform computational, experimental and clinical neuroscience work. Our project aims at developing a novel data-driven methodology supported by a broad heterogeneous base of neuroscience experimental knowledge and inspired from advances in computer science and engineering. Specifically, this work will benchmark existing and new learning rules within a full-scale spiking neural network simulation of the CA3-CA1 region. The model will be based on an open-source repository, called the Hippocampome, which contains neuronal morphologies, firing patterns, synapse probabilities, and most other required parameters for all known neuron types in the rodent hippocampal formation. The model will be first trained in a supervised fashion for associative memory tasks using backpropagation through time traditionally used in computer science, enhanced with a new technique called the surrogate gradient method. This optimization method will be used to obtain a global loss minimization, but it is not biologically inspired as it assumes the use of data not locally available to the synapses. However, we propose its use as a benchmarking tool, to compare the training performance of local biologically plausible and hardware-mappable learning rules at scale. New rules or combinations will be proposed and tested as needed, based on the obtained results. Progress in this area will also drive the development of novel hardware-mappable algorithms for continual lifelong learning and categorization of new events from few presented examples. This project goes beyond the existing state-of-the-art by looking at large scale realistic neuronal circuits as networks trainable via global optimization methods such as surrogate gradient descent. The objective function of the brain that supports learning is largely unknown, but it is likely that it operates through local learning rules. Studying network trajectories around local minima as proposed in this work represents a useful strategy for understanding whether a network is training by using a specific (set of) learning rule(s). Starting from a completely untrained network is a challenging test since it is difficult to determine how the learning rule affects the trajectory of the network. This interdisciplinary project will help understand what rule governs learning in these regions or if multiple learning rules are involved. The work will develop a robust methodology to measure if the network is converging to the target solution, oscillating around it, or diverging away.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Affinity and Treatment of LDR Organics in Low Activity Waste by Cementitious Materials – 26109

The physiochemical interactions between organic contaminants, minerals, and polymer additives in grout/cementitious materials are being identified. This research supports a proposed Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) treatment variance relevant to the Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) organics present in Hanford tank waste. It provides the technical basis to address the aspects documented by the Environmental Protection Agency in a draft memo necessary to establish that organics can be immobilized/stabilized in a cementitious matrix. The organic species may interact with cementitious minerals, including slag, fly ash, cement, and other components/dopants like activated carbon. A list of 132 reasonably expected LDR organics associated with Hanford tank waste (RPP-RPT-63493, Rev 1a) was screened by functional groups, octanol-water partitioning coefficients, and detection frequency in Hanford tank waste samples. A subset of 15 compounds spanning the identified properties was tested using sorption and leachate tests. These compounds were subjected to traditional batch sorption tests and leaching tests on/from Cast Stone cementitious material with and without activated carbon (a potential organic adsorption additive). The interactions between organic compounds were observed in traditional batch sorption and modified TCLP leachate tests for surrogate Cast Stone material with and without activated carbon addition. Specifically, phthalic acid (negatively charged) and 4-chloroaniline (polar) sorbed strongly to unmodified Cast Stone, while a group of three phenolic compounds (2,4,6-Trichlorophenol, Pentachlorophenol, o-Cresol) sorbed to and were retained by Cast Stone with a 1% activated carbon amendment. Mixtures of these compounds demonstrated visible retention of the organics within the matrix with a quantifiable affinity of the organics to the cement. This novel testing supports the notion that organics within Hanford tank waste would be retained onto the cement phase with the addition of simple materials easily added to the formulation as part of the treatment process. To further provide additional support to this claim, models employing Flory-Huggins theory in conjunction with macromolecular and organic molecule solubility parameters and species activity coefficients are being utilized to better understand these interactions. Within this context, Van Krevelen (VK) and Hansen organic and polymer solubility parameters were used to inform the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter, allowing for a quantifiable method of evaluating polymer-solvent compatibility and, by extension, interactions with proposed binding additives (e.g., activated carbon). These models and measurement should test the hypothesis for our systems understanding and applicability of Flory-Huggins theory, and whether the prediction of organics in the polymer phase versus the aqueous phase can be confidently made using this strategy. The estimation of the organic molecular activity coefficient in these high salt-saturated aqueous systems is another factor that will be assessed. This project aims to predict and understand complicated organic interactions in these heterogenous systems, guiding optimal treatment and stabilization methodologies.

Jolin, Will [Savannah River National Laboratory (S↗

Fuel-Cladding Eutectic Study of Legacy Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) MFF HT9/U-10Zr Metallic Fuel

This report presents the first systematic investigation of fuel-cladding eutectic interaction (FCEI) in irradiated HT9/U-10Zr metallic fuel from the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Materials Fuels Form (MFF) program, using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) coupled with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Two irradiated fuel cross-sections, MNT07H (9.5 at% burnup, x/L = 0.78) and MNT08H (7.0 at% burnup, x/L = 0.93), were subjected to three successive isothermal annealing rounds (R1–R3) at 820°C for 20 minutes each, yielding a cumulative transient duration of one hour. This study directly addresses a recognized gap in the existing FCEI database, which previously lacked irradiated HT9/U-10Zr data at burnup levels above 8 at%. Two principal findings emerge from the study. First, for both samples, FCEI remained spatially confined within the pre-existing fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) zone boundaries after R3, with no measurable eutectic penetration into unaffected cladding beyond the original FCCI layer. This self-limiting behavior is consistent with historical Fuel Behavior Test Apparatus (FBTA) results and is attributed to the near-eutectic phase composition of the FCCI zone, which rapidly absorb the available eutectic-forming constituents and then stall penetration once the FCCI zone is consumed. A comparison with unirradiated surrogate data further supports this mechanism: whereas a U–34 at.% Fe sample would be expected to show ~176 µm of iron penetration under comparable conditions, the irradiated samples exhibited only ~20 µm, a discrepancy attributed to irradiation-induced interfacial porosity and pre-existing FCCI composition gradients. Second, for MNT08H, FCEI was observed exclusively on the half of the cladding circumference where pre-existing steady-state FCCI was present, with no detectable FCEI on the opposite half. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain this asymmetry: the inhibiting role of a zirconium-rich rind at the fuel-cladding interface; the chemical sequestration of iron by redistributed zirconium within the fuel matrix; and the persistence of fuel-cladding gaps on the FCEI-free half that preclude direct contact. All three hypotheses require further experimental investigation. The results extend the empirical FCEI database into higher-burnup territory and demonstrate the viability of DSC-based testing as a substitute for the no-longer-available FBTA apparatus. Future work will include additional cross-section testing, compilation of the full FCEI dataset, model evaluation, and DSC testing of ternary fuel compositions to broaden the experimental basis for safety assessment of sodium-cooled fast reactor systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Continued Investigations of Respirable Release Fractions for Stress Corrosion Crack-Like Geometries

The formation of a stress corrosion crack (SCC) in the canister wall of a dry cask storage system (DCSS) has been identified as a potential issue for the long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel. The presence of an SCC in a storage system could represent a through-wall flow path from the canister interior to the environment. Modern, vertical DCSSs are of particular interest due to the commercial practice of using relatively high backfill pressures (up to approximately 800 kPa) in the canister to enhance internal natural convection. This pressure differential offers a comparatively high driving potential for blowdown of any particulates that might be present in the canister. In this study, the rates of gas flow and aerosol transmission of a spent fuel surrogate through an engineered microchannel with dimensions representative of an SCC were evaluated experimentally using coupled mass flow and aerosol analyzers. The microchannel was formed by mating two gage blocks with a linearly tapering slot orifice nominally 13 μm (0.005 in.) tall on the upstream side and 25 μm (0.0010 in.) tall on the downstream side. The orifice is 12.7 mm (0.500 in.) wide by 8.89 mm (0.350 in.) long (flow length). Surrogate aerosols of cerium oxide, CeO 2 , were seeded and mixed with either helium or air inside a pressurized tank. The aerosol characteristics were measured immediately upstream and downstream of the simulated SCC at elevated and ambient pressures, respectively. These data sets are intended to demonstrate a new capability to characterize SCCs under well-controlled boundary conditions. Modeling efforts were also initiated that evaluate the depletion of aerosols in a commercial dry storage canister. These preliminary modeling and ongoing testing efforts are focused on understanding the evolution in both size and quantity of a hypothetical release of aerosolized spent fuel particles from failed fuel to the canister interior and ultimately through an SCC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

In-cylinder spray evolution in a motored central-injection gasoline engine: Imaging and simulating the effects of flash-boiling and intake crossflow

Accurate predictions of fuel spray behavior and mixture formation in simulations of direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engines are fundamental to ensure proper description of all subsequent processes including ignition, combustion, and emissions. In this work, the spray evolution in a single-cylinder optical DISI engine was studied experimentally and numerically with the goal of enabling predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of in-cylinder sprays. The authors explored a wide range of operating conditions characterized by several fuel injection temperatures and engine speeds, using a well-characterized nine-component gasoline surrogate known as PACE-20. The effect of flash boiling and intake crossflow on the spray is discussed, with a focus on evaluating the ability of the spray models to capture highly transient spray behavior. In the experiments, the fuel temperature was varied between 20°C and 80°C, allowing for non-flash- to flash-boiling transition to emerge with enhanced flashing intensity at the highest temperatures. Spray collapse resulted in vapor-rich regions, owing to the locally lower inertia of the fluid. Varying the engine speed from 650 to 1950 rpm promoted increasingly more turbulent in-cylinder crossflow which interacted with the spray during the injection event and resulted in enhanced spray dispersion. The CFD model was able to capture the spray morphology transition at different fuel temperatures and engine speeds adequately. Further, it is shown that the spray breakup model could capture the transitional spray behavior induced by flash boiling atomization and intake flow via proper initialization of the spray cone angle and calibration of the spray models’ constants.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Probing the antiknock effect of anisole through an ignition, speciation and modeling study of its blends with isooctane

In order to unravel the reaction pathways relevant to anisole co-oxidation within a fuel blend, a detailed study of isooctane/anisole blends was performed with the ULille RCM. Ignition delays as well as mole fraction profiles were measured during a two-stage ignition delay using sampling and GC techniques. These results are used to validate a kinetic model developed from ab initio calculations for the most relevant rate constants which included H-atom abstraction reactions from anisole, and reactions on the potential energy surfaces of methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 . Pressure dependent rate constants were computed for the methoxyphenyl + O 2 and anisyl + O 2 reactive systems using master equation code analysis. The new kinetic model shows good agreement with the experimental data. Dual brute-force sensitivity analysis was performed, on both first- and second-stages of ignition, allowing the identification of the most important reactions in the prediction of both ignition delays. It was observed that while pure anisole does not show NTC behavior, a 60/40 isooctane/anisole blend displays such behavior, as well as two-stage ignition. This suggests anisole addition may not be as beneficial to knock resistance as expected from its high octane number. The kinetic modeling results demonstrate the importance of H-abstraction reactions both from the methoxy group and from the aryl ring in ortho-position and the addition of the resultant radicals to O2, mostly leading to the formation of polar or non-aromatic products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Results and lessons learned from accelerating radio frequency modeling using machine learning [slides]

The “advanced tokamak” reactor concept is a leading candidate for a steady state fusion pilot plant. An advanced tokamak (AT) sustains a majority of the required plasma current with effects resulting from maintenance of the peaked pressure at the device center. This current is augmented by auxiliary current drive sources. These auxiliary actuators may consist of neutral particle beams and/or radio frequency (RF) systems such as lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) and high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) current drive using radio and microwaves from antennas. The primary focus of this work is to develop models of RF current profile control suitable for use in integrated modeling frameworks and for real-time control in experiments. Direct physics models of RF current drive can be computationally intensive. In order to achieve predictive times appropriate for the thousands of calls needed in real-time control of experiments and for use in integrated models, we will apply modern machine learning (ML) techniques to accelerate these models and interpolate their results. To generate the fast and accurate models for use in control level algorithms and integrated modeling we need to replace present models with high dimensional interpolation of their results. We will perform additional simulations across a broader parameter range for EAST and other tokamaks in different physics regimes (Alcator C-Mod, DIII-D, WEST, CFETR, ARC, ITER) and combine them into a larger database for training and testing of the ML models. Further testing of the control level models with experimental current profile data from EAST and C-Mod tokamaks will provide additional confirmation of the control level model before integration in a tokamak control system or integrated modeling suite. ML will be used to optimize the selection of training data consisting of RF current driven at different values of density profile, temperature profile, plasma current, and wavenumber. ML will also be used to facilitate classification of current drive from these input data. The output of this effort will be a validated classifier capable of determining the current drive profiles for HHFW CD and LHCD on a mille-second timescale. This will provide a breakthrough capability enabling real-time control of RF driven current profiles in experiments including ITER ICRF and use integrated modeling frameworks requiring thousands of current profile calculations in discharge simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

REBOUND: Reverse Engineering Bidirectional Outflow Under Non-Equilibrium Diffusion

Rare-earth elements (REEs) are essential for electronics, renewable energy, and defense technologies. However, the current supply of REEs relies on mining concentrated in a few countries and energy-intensive separations. DOE’s Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program has launched a grand challenge which aims to ensure a sustainable supply of critical REEs by developing innovative and environmentally friendly separation methods. As an alternative to costly and harmful traditional methods, the Non-Equilibrium Transport Driven Separations (NETS) initiative has created a microfluidic Y-channel co-flow method that applies external fields to exploit magneto- and electrohydrodynamic effects for separating dilute REE ions from complex feedstocks. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have identified a few operating conditions with promising ion selectivity and separation efficiency. However, challenges remain regarding Y-channel versatility across feedstocks and accurate incorporation of physical phenomena into CFD models. In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity modelling approach which integrates experimental results with CFD simulation to build a surrogate model for the dependence of separation efficiency to variation of design parameters. The surrogate model enables a reinforcement learning (RL) method to adaptively launch CFD and experimental runs, improving model fidelity around optimal Y-channel parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simple, low-cost and accurate data-driven geophysical forecasting with learned kernels

Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗