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NASA NTRS2011

Aromatic Structure in Simulates Titan Aerosol

Observations of Titan by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) between 560 and 20 per centimeter (approximately 18 to 500 micrometers) have been used to infer the vertical variations of Titan's ice abundances, as well as those of the aerosol from the surface to an altitude of 300 km [1]. The aerosol has a broad emission feature centered approximately at 140 per centimeter (71 micrometers). As seen in Figure 1, this feature cannot be reproduced using currently available optical constants from laboratory-generated Titan aerosol analogs [2]. The far-IR is uniquely qualified for investigating low-energy vibrational motions within the lattice structures of COITIDlex aerosol. The feature observed by CIRS is broad, and does not likely arise from individual molecules, but rather is representative of the skeletal movements of macromolecules. Since Cassini's arrival at Titan, benzene (C6H6) has been detected in the atmosphere at ppm levels as well as ions that may be polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) [3]. We speculate that the feature may be a blended composite that can be identified with low-energy vibrations of two-dimensional lattice structures of large molecules, such as PAHs or nitrogenated aromatics. Such structures do not dominate the composition of analog materials generated from CH4 and N2 irradiation. We are performing studies forming aerosol analog via UV irradiation of aromatic precursors - specifically C6H6 - to understand how the unique chemical architecture of the products will influence the observable aerosol characteristics. The optical and chemical properties of the aromatic analog will be compared to those formed from CH4/N2 mixtures, with a focus on the as-yet unidentified far-IR absorbance feature. Preliminary results indicate that the photochemically-formed aromatic aerosol has distinct chemical composition, and may incorporate nitrogen either into the ring structure or adjoined chemical groups. These compositional differences are demonstrated in the aerosol mass spectra shown in Figure 2. The aromatic aerosol also demonstrates strong chemical reactivity when exposed to laboratory air, indicating substantial stored chemical potential. Oxidatoin and solubility studies wil be presented and implicatoins for prebiotic chemistry o nTitan will be discussed.

Trainer, Melissa G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Noble Gases in Samples Returned From Asteroids Ryugu and Bennu

Introduction: The asteroid sample return missions, JAXA’s Hayabusa2 [1] and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx [2], fromC-rich asteroids Ryugu and Bennu offer unique opportunities to sample pristine early solar system material, unaffected by terrestrial weathering and contamination, and with a known geological context. The comparison with most primi-tive members of carbonaceous –and inner solar system ordinary and enstatite– chondrite classes allows us to (i) assess the variation (or the lack of thereof) of the distribution of the most volatile elements throughout the entire early solar system, (ii) determine the effects of parent body thermal and aqueous alteration, and (iii) learn about the dynamic evolution and history of the various parent bodies, as sampled by both return missions and meteorite delivery. Here we will present noble gas data obtained from newly received particles from Ryugu and Bennu. Samples & Analysis: We received nine particles allocated by JAXA, with masses of 0.5-1.7 mg mass: four col-lected during Hayabusa2’s first touchdown (chamber A) and five from a small artificial crater (chamber C). We received three particles from Bennu of 0.07, 0.89 and 0.94 mg mass (OREX-800032-102/3/4). All particles were processed, allocated, weighed, and transferred into our UHV sample chamber within pure N2, to prevent any contact with air. We examined all He-Xe isotopes with our custom-built mass spectrometer “Albatros” ([3,4]). Gases were extracted individually from each particle by melting induced by a 1064 μm Nd:YAG IR laser in 2–4 heating steps. Large amounts of water and other reactive volatiles were released, consistent with the presence of abundant volatiles from both Ryugu and Bennu. Residues of Ryugu particles remaining after lasering, subsequently exposed to air, were additionally extracted in a crucible to verify complete gas extraction. Only the particle that still showed a “crystalline” structure after lasering contained detectable Ryugu noble gases, whereas all other particles turned immediately into glassy spheres by laser heating and lacked any gas. Results & Discussion: Ryugu and Bennu matter contains noble gases similar to the most pristine, unheated aqueously altered meteorites, e.g., CM or CI chondrites [5,6]. Remarkably, all four chamber A samples that originated from Ryugu’s surface show solar wind (SW) Ne (trapped (20Ne/22Ne)tr ~12–13), whereas all five chamber C samples do not ((20Ne/22Ne)tr ~9.0–10.7 consistent with the presence of non-solar trapped Ne components such as Q and HL). This demonstrates that JAXA’s sampling strategy succeeded: Chamber C samples analyzed in this work originated from areas shielded from SW, slightly below the surface, that was sampled after the impactor excavated material. The three Bennu particles populate the same range as the Ryugu particles in Ne isotope space with one particle containing SW suggesting that it was part of the uppermost surface layer of Bennu during sampling, while Ne in the smallest sample can be explained best by mixing Ne from presolar diamonds and SiC or graphite, and that in the third one by mixing of, e.g., Q and HL. Using cosmic ray production rates given by [7] yields preliminary exposure ages for Ryugu particles in the same range as determined in [7]. There is, as expected, also no systematic difference between samples from chambers A and C because both sample sets were likely collected within the uppermost layer of Ryugu, which were not shielded from cosmic rays. The concentration of cosmogenic (cos) Ne in the Bennu particle, where Necos was resolvable, is in the same range as found for Ryugu, suggesting roughly similar exposure time to cosmic rays for 5–8 Ma for all particles examined here. The Xe isotopic compositions of all particles are consistent with those of phase Q, with small additions of Xe-HL from presolar diamonds and excess 129Xe* from short-lived 129I decay. The comparably high 129Xe*/129XeQ ratio is similar in all samples, suggesting similar initial I concentrations and closure to Xe loss –or the incorporation of a well-mixed Xe reservoir. The Bennu material was in brief contact with air in the capsule, after atmospheric entry and before storage in pure N2 in a clean room. Both, the –most diagnostic– Xe isotopes and the Ar/Xe vs. Kr/Xe systematics prove that the noble gases are not affected by terrestrial contamination, in contrast to many CI, CY, and CM chondrites found on Earth [5,6], illustrating the importance of sample return. He-Xe concentrations in all particles unaffected bySW are comparable to but at the upper end of ranges reported [5-7]. In accordance with the strong aqueous alteration experienced on the parent bodies of Ryugu and Bennu [1,2], all samples lack the Ar-rich and water-susceptible noble gas components found in less aqueously altered CMs or CRs [e.g., 5,8] and all COs.

Henner Busemann↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Interaction of the terrestrial and atmospheric hydrological cycles in the context of the North American southwest summer monsoon

Work under this grant has used information on precipitation and water vapor fluxes in the area of the Mexican Monsoon to analyze the regional precipitation climatology, to understand the nature of water vapor transport during the monsoon using model and observational data, and to analyze the ability of the TRMM remote sensing algorithm to characterize precipitation. An algorithm for estimating daily surface rain volumes from hourly GOES infrared images was developed and compared to radar data. Estimates were usually within a factor of two, but different linear relations between satellite reflectances and rainfall rate were obtained for each day, storm type and storm development stage. This result suggests that using TRMM sensors to calibrate other satellite IR will need to be a complex process taking into account all three of the above factors. Another study, this one of the space-time variability of the Mexican Monsoon, indicate that TRMM will have a difficult time, over the course of its expected three year lifetime, identifying the diurnal cycle of precipitation over monsoon region. Even when considering monthly rainfalls, projected satellite estimates of August rainfall show a root mean square error of 38 percent. A related examination of spatial variability of mean monthly rainfall using a novel method for removing the effects of elevation from gridded gauge data, show wide variation from a satellite-based rainfall estimates for the same time and space resolution. One issue addressed by our research, relating to the basic character of the monsoon circulation, is the determination of the source region for moisture. The monthly maps produced from our study of monsoon variability show the presence of two rainfall maxima in the analysis normalized to sea level, one in south-central Arizona associated with the Mexican monsoon maximum and one in southeastern New Mexico associated with the Gulf of Mexico. From the point of view of vertically-integrated fluxes and flux divergence of water vapor from ECMWF data, most moisture at upper levels arrives from the Gulf of Mexico, while low level moisture comes from the northern Gulf of California. Composites of ECMWF analyses for wet and dry periods (classified by rain gauge data) show that both regimes show low level moisture arriving from northern and central Gulf of California. Above 700 MB, moisture comes from both source regions and the Sierra Madre Occidental. During wet periods a longer fetch through the moist air mass above western Mexico results in a greater moisture flux into the Sonoran Desert region, while there is less moisture from the Gulf of Mexico both above and below 700 mb. Work on the grant subcontract at the University of Colorado concentrated on the development of a technique useful to TRMM combining visible, infrared and passive microwave data for measuring precipitation. Two established techniques using either visible or infrared data applied over the US Southwest correlated with gauges at the 0.58 to 0.70 level. The application of some established passive microwave techniques were less successful for a variety of reason, including problems in both the gauge and satellite data quality, sampling problems and weaknesses inherent in the algorithms themselves. A more promising solution for accurate rainfall estimation was explored using visible and infrared data to perform a cloud classification, which when combined with information about the background (e.g. Iand/ocean), was used to select the most appropriate microwave algorithm from a suite of possibilities.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Electron Beam Welding of Pure Tungsten Hex Cans for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Engines

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is an in-space propulsion method currently being developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). NTP systems are a high specific impulse (750–1,100 s), high thrust (15,000–250,000 lbf ) method of propulsion which have the potential to allow for faster transit times when optimizing for high ΔV. In the nuclear rocket engine, the heat from the nuclear fission reaction is transferred to a low molecular mass propellant (such as hydrogen). Hot propellant is expanded through a nozzle to generate thrust. Development of ceramic metal (cermet) fuel systems for NTP applications is currently ongoing at MSFC. In cermet fuel systems, ceramic fissile fuel particles such as uranium nitride or uranium dioxide are dispersed within a net-shaped, high-density structural matrix. The composite material is cladded by a protective metal structure to make up an NTP fuel element. Cladding materials must be able to withstand the demanding operating conditions required of the engine as well as retain a hermetic seal to allow for retention of fuel element structural integrity, prevent hydrogen attack or migration of the ceramic fuel, and limit release of fission products during operation. For NTP applications, tungsten is a prime material for both the metal matrix and cladding in cermet fuel systems because of its high melting point, high temperature strength, and compatibility with hot hydrogen. If a weld in tungsten with the capability of holding a hermetic seal is achievable, tungsten becomes a strong candidate for NTP applications. This Technical Memorandum focuses on determining the weldability of pure tungsten using electron beam welding (EBW). Tungsten appears well suited for NTP applications, but it has a high ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) dependent upon chemical composition, structure/stress distribution, and mechanical conditions. Therefore, it is highly subject to brittle fracture. Because of its high susceptibility to brittle fracture, it is very difficult to weld. EBW was chosen for joining pure tungsten because of its low heat input compared to gas tungsten arc welding. Reduced heat input can be directly correlated with an increase in ductility of a tungsten weld. EBW is a high energy density welding process in which a stream of electrons penetrates a weld joint in a deep, narrow spike in contrast to a broad gas tungsten arc weld pool. The investigation initially focused on EBW of tungsten plates of both 0.01 in and 0.03 in thickness to determine if EBW could weld pure tungsten without the presence of visual defects—particularly cracking—in the welds. Variation in the weld procedure and post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) was used to improve the surface appearance of flat EBWs on a pure tungsten sheet. The investigation moved on to weld 0.05-in-thick hexagonal tungsten cans with a weld joint thickness of 0.025 in. The goal for welding the pure tungsten hex cans was to avoid any visual surface defects and generate a weld capable of a hermetic seal. This proved difficult. Cold welds commonly exhibited porosity that leaked air. Hot welds exhibited cracks, typically observed immediately after welding. Later welds were preheated to increase ductility and decrease the likelihood of through-thickness cracking. PWHT was used to arrest microcrack growth both in the flat weld samples and hexagonal weld samples.

Courtright, Z. S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Updates of the KArLE Experiment: New Libs Calibration Under High Vacuum for the Quantification of Potassium in Basalt for In Situ Geochronology

In planetary exploration, in situ absolute geochronology is one of the main important measurements that needs to be accomplished. Until now, on Mars, the age of the surface is only determined by crater density counting, which gives relative ages. These ages can have a lot of uncertainty as they depend on many parameters. More than that, the curves must be ties to absolute ages. Thus far, only the lost lander Beagle 2 was designed to conduct absolute geochronology measurements, though some recent attempts using MSL Curiosity show that this investigation is feasible and should be strongly encouraged for future flight. Experimental: The Potassium (K)-Argon Laser Experiment (KArLE) is being developed at MSFC through the NASA Planetary Instrument Definition and Development Program (PIDDP). The goal of this experiment is to provide in situ geochronology based on the K-Ar method. A laser ablates a rock under high vacuum, creating a plasma which is sensed by an optical spectrometer to do Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS). The ablated material frees gases, including radiogenic 40Ar,which is measured by a mass spectrometer (MS). As the potassium is a content and the 40Ar is a quantity, the ablated mass needed in order to relate them. The mass is given by the product of the ablated volume by the density of this material. So we determine the mineralogy of the ablated material with the LIBS spectra and images and calculate its density. The volume of the pit is measured by using microscopy. LIBS measurement of K under high vacuum: Three independant projects [1, 2, 3] including KArLE, are developing geochronological instruments based on this LA-LIBS-MS method. Despite several differences in their setup, all of them have validated the methods with analyses and ages. However, they all described difficulties with the LIBS measurements of K [3,4]. At ambient pressure, the quantification of K by LIBS on geological materials can be accurate [5]. However the protocol of the LA-LIBS-MS experiment required hundreds of shots under high vacuum in order to free enough 40Ar* to be measured by the QMS. This long duration of ablation may induces significant changes in the LIBS spectra. The pressure may increases by orders of magnitudewithin the chamber and the laser pit geometry can change the effectiveness of ablation and intensity of plasma light received. These effects introduce variation between the first and last spectra and so the quantification of K is more complex. The ablation of one crater can give, depending on the protocol of acquisition, from tens to hundreds of spectra. Protocol and results: We are in the process of further characterizing the variation introduced into LIBS spectra by the use of hundreds of laser shots, and definining a protocol that can be used to ensure accuracy and reporoducibility in the results.We are using natural rock powder standards fused in a furnace, as well as mars analog samples with known K content. We will show the result of the calibration and some new statistical approaches in order to apprehend the effects of the long time ablation on rocks under high vacuum.

Devismes, D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Workshop on Oxygen in the Terrestrial Planets

This volume contains abstracts that have been accepted for presentation at the Workshop on Oxygen in the Terrestrial Planets, July 20-23,2004, Santa Fe, New Mexico. The contents include: 1) Experimental Constraints on Oxygen and Other Light Element Partitioning During Planetary Core Formation; 2) In Situ Determination of Fe(3+)/SigmaFe of Spinels by Electron Microprobe: An Evaluation of the Flank Method; 3) The Effect of Oxygen Fugacity on Large-Strain Deformation and Recrystallization of Olivine; 4) Plagioclase-Liquid Trace Element Oxygen Barometry and Oxygen Behaviour in Closed and Open System Magmatic Processes; 5) Core Formation in the Earth: Constraints from Ni and Co; 6) Oxygen Isotopic Compositions of the Terrestrial Planets; 7) The Effect of Oxygen Fugacity on Electrical Conduction of Olivine and Implications for Earth s Mantle; 8) Redox Chemical Diffusion in Silicate Melts: The Impact of the Semiconductor Condition; 9) Ultra-High Temperature Effects in Earth s Magma Ocean: Pt and W Partitioning; 10) Terrestrial Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotope Variations: Primordial Values, Systematics, Subsolidus Effects, Planetary Comparisons, and the Role of Water; 11) Redox State of the Moon s Interior; 12) How did the Terrestrial Planets Acquire Their Water?; 13) Molecular Oxygen Mixing Ratio and Its Seasonal Variability in the Martian Atmosphere; 14) Exchange Between the Atmosphere and the Regolith of Mars: Discussion of Oxygen and Sulfur Isotope Evidence; 15) Oxygen and Hydrogen Isotope Systematics of Atmospheric Water Vapor and Meteoric Waters: Evidence from North Texas; 16) Implications of Isotopic and Redox Heterogeneities in Silicate Reservoirs on Mars; 17) Oxygen Isotopic Variation of the Terrestrial Planets; 18) Redox Exchanges in Hydrous Magma; 19) Hydrothermal Systems on Terrestrial Planets: Lessons from Earth; 20) Oxygen in Martian Meteorites: A Review of Results from Mineral Equilibria Oxybarometers; 21) Non-Linear Fractionation of Oxygen Isotopes Implanted in Lunar Metal Grains: Solar, Lunar or Terrestrial Origin? 22) Isotopic Zoning in the Inner Solar System; 23) Redox Conditions on Small Bodies; 24) Determining the Oxygen Fugacity of Lunar Pyroclastic Glasses Using Vanadium Valence - An Update; 25) Mantle Redox Evolution and the Rise of Atmospheric O2; 26) Variation of Kd for Fe-Mg Exchange Between Olivine and Melt for Compositions Ranging from Alkaline Basalt to Rhyolite; 27) Determining the Partial Pressure of Oxygen (PO,) in Solutions on Mars; 28) The Influence of Oxygen Environment on Kinetic Properties of Silicate Rocks and Minerals; 29) Redox Evolution of Magmatic Systems; 30) The Constancy of Upper Mantlefo, Through Time Inferred from V/Sc Ratios in Basalts: Implications for the Rise in Atmospheric 0 2; 31) Nitrogen Solubility in Basaltic Melt. Effects of Oxygen Fugacity, Melt Composition and Gas Speciation; 32) Oxygen Isotope Anomalies in the Atmospheres of Earth and Mars; 33) The Effect of Oxygen Fugacity on Interdiffusion of Iron and Magnesium in Magnesiowiistite 34) The Calibration of the Pyroxene Eu-Oxybarometer for the Martian Meteorites; 35) The Europium Oxybarometer: Power and Pitfalls; 36) Oxygen Fugacity of the Martian Mantle from PigeoniteMelt Partitioning of Samarium, Europium and Gadolinium; 37) Oxidation-Reduction Processes on the Moon: Experimental Verification of Graphite Oxidation in the Apollo 17 Orange Glasses; 38) Oxygen and Core Formation in the Earth; 39) Geologic Record of the Atmospheric Sulfur Chemistry Before the Oxygenation of the Early Earth s Atmosphere; 40) Comparative Planetary Mineralogy: V/(CrCAl) Systematics in Chromite as an Indicator of Relative Oxygen Fugacity; 41) How Well do Sulfur Isotopes Constrain Oxygen Abundance in the Ancient Atmospheres? 42) Experimental Constraints on the Oxygen Isotope (O-18/ O-16) Fractionation in the Ice vapor and Adsorbant vapor Systems of CO2 at Conditions Relevant to the Surface of Mars; 43) Micro-XANES Measurements on Experimental Spinels andhe Oxidation State of Vanadium in Spinel-Melt Pairs; 44) Testing the Magma Ocean Hypothesis Using Metal-Silicate Partitioning of Te, Se and S; 45) Solubility of Oxygen in Liquid Iron at High Pressure and Consequences for the Early Differentiation of Earth and Mars Metallic Liquid Segregation in Planetesimals; 46) Oxygen Fugacity of Lunar Basalts and the Lunar Mantle. Range of fo2 and the Effectiveness of Oxybarometers; 47) Thermodynamic Study of Dissociation Processes of Molecular Oxygen in Vapor over Oxide Compounds; 48) Oxygen Profile of a Thermo-Haliophilic Community in the Badwater Salt Flat; 49) Oxygen Barometry Using Synchrotron MicroXANES of Vanadium; 50) Mass-Independent Isotopic Fractionation of Sulfur from Sulfides in the Huronian Supergroup, Canada; 51) Mass Independent Isotopes and Applications to Planetary Atmospheres; 52) Electrical Conductivity, Oxygen Fugacity, and Mantle Materials; 53) Crustal Evolution and Maturation on Earth: Oxygen Isotope Evidence; 54) The Oxygen Isotope Composition of the Moon: Implications for Planet Formation; 55) Oxygen Isotope Composition of Eucrites and Implications for the Formation of Crust on the HED Parent Body; and 56) The Role of Water in Determining the Oxygen Isotopic Composition of Planets.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1999

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Haines, Bruce J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Transportable Gravity Gradiometer Based on Atom Interferometry

A transportable atom interferometer-based gravity gradiometer has been developed at JPL to carry out measurements of Earth's gravity field at ever finer spatial resolutions, and to facilitate high-resolution monitoring of temporal variations in the gravity field from ground- and flight-based platforms. Existing satellite-based gravity missions such as CHAMP and GRACE measure the gravity field via precise monitoring of the motion of the satellites; i.e. the satellites themselves function as test masses. JPL's quantum gravity gradiometer employs a quantum phase measurement technique, similar to that employed in atomic clocks, made possible by recent advances in laser cooling and manipulation of atoms. This measurement technique is based on atomwave interferometry, and individual laser-cooled atoms are used as drag-free test masses. The quantum gravity gradiometer employs two identical atom interferometers as precision accelerometers to measure the difference in gravitational acceleration between two points (Figure 1). By using the same lasers for the manipulation of atoms in both interferometers, the accelerometers have a common reference frame and non-inertial accelerations are effectively rejected as common mode noise in the differential measurement of the gravity gradient. As a result, the dual atom interferometer-based gravity gradiometer allows gravity measurements on a moving platform, while achieving the same long-term stability of the best atomic clocks. In the laboratory-based prototype (Figure 2), the cesium atoms used in each atom interferometer are initially collected and cooled in two separate magneto-optic traps (MOTs). Each MOT, consisting of three orthogonal pairs of counter-propagating laser beams centered on a quadrupole magnetic field, collects up to 10(exp 9) atoms. These atoms are then launched vertically as in an atom fountain by switching off the magnetic field and introducing a slight frequency shift between pairs of lasers to create a moving rest frame for the trapped atoms. While still in this moving-frame molasses, the laser frequencies are further detuned from the atomic resonance (while maintaining this relative frequency shift) to cool the atom cloud's temperature to 2 K or below, corresponding to an rms velocity of less than 2 cm/s. After launch, the cold atoms undergo further state and velocity selection to prepare for atom interferometry. The atom interferometers are then realized using laser-induced stimulated Raman transitions to perform the necessary manipulations of each atom, and the resulting interferometer phase is measured using laser-induced fluorescence for state-normalized detection. More than 20 laser beams with independent controls of frequency, phase, and intensity are required for this measurement sequence. This instrument can facilitate the study of Earth's gravitational field from surface and air vehicles, as well as from space by allowing gravity mapping from a low-cost, single spacecraft mission. In addition, the operation of atom interferometer-based instruments in space offers greater sensitivity than is possible in terrestrial instruments due to the much longer interrogation times available in the microgravity environment. A space-based quantum gravity gradiometer has the potential to achieve sensitivities similar to the GRACE mission at long spatial wavelengths, and will also have resolution similar to GOCE for measurement at shorter length scales.

Yu, Nan↗

NASA NTRS2002

Evidence of an Intrinsic Intraseasonal Oscillation over Tropical South America During Austral Summer

The intraseasonal variation (ISV) in the 30-60 day band, also known as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), has been studied for decades. Madden and Julian showed that the oscillation originated from the western Indian Ocean, propagated eastward, got enhanced over the maritime continent and weakened after passing over the dateline. Composite studies showed evidences of a signal in upper and lower level zonal wind propagating around the globe during an oscillation. Theoretical studies pointed out that the interaction with the warm ocean surface and the coupling with the convective and radiative processes in the atmosphere could manifest the oscillation, which propagates eastward via mutual feedbacks between the wave motions and the cumulus heating. Over tropical South America, no independent 30-60 day oscillation has been reported so far, despite that Amazon is the most distinct tropical convection center over the western hemisphere and the fluxes from its surface of tropical rainforests are close to that from the warm tropical ocean. Liebmann et al. showed a distinct spectral peak of 40-50 day oscillation in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over tropical South America and considered that was manifested by the MJO propagation. Nogues-Paegle et al. (2000) focused on a dipole pattern of the OLR anomaly with centers of action over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the subtropical plain. They used the regional 10-90 day filtered data and demonstrated this pattern could be represented by the fifth mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal function. Its principal component was further analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis. Their result showed two oscillatory modes with periods of 36-40 days and 22-28 days, of which the former was related to the MJO influence and the latter linked to the remote forcing over southwest of Australia, which produced a wave train propagating southeastward, rounding the southern tip of South America and returning back toward the northeast. The 22-28 day mode has distinct impact on SACZ, responsible for the regional seesaw pattern of alternating dry and wet conditions. In this study we will focus on the 30-60-day spectral band and investigate whether the independent oscillation source over tropical South America is existed. First, we will show the seasonal dependence of the tropical South American ISV in Section 3. Then, the leading principal modes of 30-60 day bandpass filtered 850-hPa velocity potential (VP850) will be computed to distinguish the stationary ISV over tropical South America (SISA) from the propagating MJO in the austral summertime in Section 4. The importance of SISA in representing the regional ISV over South America will be discussed. In Section 5, we will demonstrate the mass oscillation regime of SISA, which is well separated from that of MJO by the Andes, and the convective coupling with rainfall. The dynamical response of SISA and the impact on the South American summer monsoon (SASM) will be presented. Finally, we will give the concluding remarks.

Zhou, Jiayu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Moon to Mars Autonomous Habitat Status

NASA is developing a strategy for sending humans to the Mars vicinity, known broadly as the Moon to Mars (M2M) Campaign. A critical part of this campaign is the development of in-space and surface habitation systems capable of substantially extending human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Mars missions feature an in-space transit habitat capable of supporting crews of four on ~850-1200-day missions, including transit to and from Mars and time in Mars orbit. Surface and transit habitats are complex elements which must keep crewmembers healthy and productive in deep-space environments with limited resources, long rescue times in contingency situations, and communication delays; all within constrained mass, volume, and power budgets. These habitats provide crew both living and workspace as well as most of the resources needed to support crew life. For deep space habitats, automation needs to be employed due to latency and for significant amounts of time when the habitats are uncrewed. Automation of systems is possible in space applications, but there are limitations. Outside of the Earth’s (or any) magnetosphere, radiation environments are harsh to both the physical hardware and the software components. Radiation (charged particles and ionizing electromagnetic waves) degrades and damages the hardware and causes single event upsets (SEUs) in software. If the hardware is damaged, data can be lost, or control actions not made. For software, SEUs cause algorithms to result in different solutions, or incorrect commands to be sent out. This means that algorithms and hardware used for deep space systems are different than what is used on Earth. Radiation-tolerant hardware is generations behind the current state-of-the-art hardware. Recent NASA missions, such as James Webb Space Telescope, continue to rely on older technologies such as the RAD750 processor, and the most advanced processors are still single core and less than 1.5 GHz. There have been attempts to use higher performance processors, but these often take multiple mitigation steps to handle the radiation environments, which limits the processing power and/or throughput. Current techniques for radiation mitigation have been redundancies, voting, physical separation of hardware, encasing materials, under-clocking hardware, and more. Some radiation mitigation techniques do provide benefits such as having a redundant system to improve the probability that a system will be available when needed. Autonomous software systems will have fewer interactions with humans on deep space missions and therefore need to be able to handle more off-nominal conditions. Microgravity also complicates the autonomous aspects of the mission because autonomous systems are usually built from known deterministic states, but microgravity causes physical objects to shift and move changing the location an autonomous system placed the object. Not only does the software need to be reliable and deterministic, losing resources due to a software error is not only costly but detrimental to reputation. The combination of having lower performance hardware and having to be able to verify and deterministically run software and an ever-changing environment makes deep space autonomous systems more complicated. Multiple gaps have been identified including verification of autonomous software algorithms (including artificial intelligence and machine learning), higher performance processors (graphics and general purpose), high speed networks (onboard and transmissions), memory, power distribution, data security, and variations from these. These gaps need to be closed for more advanced systems to be deployed and reduce the size, weight, and power impacts on the habitats.

Scott B. Tashakkor↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Complex Spin State of 103P-Hartley 2: Kinematics and Orientation in Space

We derive the spin state of the nucleus of Comet 103P/Hartley 2, its orientation in space, and its short-term temporal evolution from a mixture of observations taken from the DIXI (Deep Impact Extended Investigation) spacecraft and radar observations. The nucleus is found to spin in an excited long-axis mode (LAM) with its rotational angular momentum per unit mass, M, and rotational energy per unit mass, E, slowly decreasing while the degree of excitation in the spin increases through perihelion passage. M is directed toward (RA, Dec; J2000) = 8+/-+/- 4 deg., 54 +/- 1 deg. (obliquity = 48 +/- 1 deg.). This direction is likely changing, but the change is probably <6 deg. on the sky over the approx. 81.6 days of the DIXI encounter. The magnitudes of M and E at closest approach (JD 2455505.0831866 2011-11-04 13:59:47.310) are 30.0 +/- 0.2 sq. m/s and (1.56 +/- 0.02) X 10(exp -3) sq. m /sq. s respectively. The period of rotation about the instantaneous spin vector, which points in the direction (RA, Dec; J2000) = 300 +/- 3.2deg., 67 +/- 1.3 deg. at the time of closest approach, was 14.1 +/- 0.3 h. The instantaneous spin vector circulates around M, inclined at an average angle of 33.2 +/- 1.3 deg. with an average period of 18.40 +/- 0.13 h at the time of closest approach. The period of roll around the principal axis of minimum inertia (''long'' axis) at that time is 26.72 +/- 0.06 h. The long axis is inclined to M by approx. 81.2 +/- 0.6 deg. on average, slowly decreasing through encounter. We infer that there is a periodic nodding motion of the long axis with half the roll period, i.e., 13.36+/- 0.03 h, with amplitude of 1 again decreasing through encounter. The periodic variability in the circulation and roll rates during a cycle was at the 2% and 10-14% level respectively. During the encounter there was a secular lengthening of the circulation period of the long axis by 1.3 +/- 0.2 min/d, in agreement with ground-based estimates, while the period of roll around the long axis changed by approx. -4.4 min/d at perihelion. M decreased at a rate of 0.038 (sq m/s) per day in a roughly linear fashion. Assuming a bulk density between 230-300 kg/m3 and a total volume for the nucleus of 8.09 X 10(exp 8) cubic m, the net torque acting on the nucleus was in the range 0.8-1.1 X 10(exp 5) kg m(exp 2) /s(exp 2). In order to bring the spacecraft photometric and imaging data into alignment on the direction of M, the directions of the intermediate and short principal axes of inertia had to be adjusted by 33 deg (on the sky) from the values indicated by the shape model with an assumed homogeneous interior. The adjusted direction of the intermediate axis is RA, Dec = 302 deg., -16.5 deg.. The morning and evening terminators in the images are identified, and the variation of the insolation at three regions on the nucleus associated with active areas calculated. The plume of water vapor observed in the inner coma is found to be directed close to the direction of local gravity over the sub-solar region for a range of reasonable bulk densities. The plume does not follow the projected normal to the surface at the sub-solar point.

Comets↗

NASA NTRS1998

Acquisition and Early Losses of Rare Gases from the Deep Earth

Direct observations show that the deep Earth contains rare gases of solar composition distinct from those in the atmosphere. We examine the implications of mantle rare gas characteristics on acquisition of rare gases from the solar nebula and subsequent losses due to a large impact. Deep mantle rare gas concentrations and isotopic compositions can be obtained from a model of transport and distribution of mantle rare gases. This model assumes the lower mantle closed early, while the upper mantle is open to subduction from the atmosphere and mass transfer from the lower mantle. Constraints are derived that can be incorporated into models for terrestrial volatile acquisition: (1) Calculated lower-mantle Xe-isotopic ratios indicate that the fraction of radiogenic Xe produced by I-129 and Pu-244 during the first about 10(exp 8) yr was lost, a conclusion also drawn for atmospheric Xe. Thus, either the Earth was made from materials that had lost >99% of rare gases about (0.7-2) x 10(exp 8) yr after the solar system formed, or gases were then lost from the fully formed Earth. (2) Concentrations of 3He and 20Ne in the lower mantle were established after these losses. (3) Neon-isotopic data indicates that mantle Ne has solar composition. The model allows for solar Ar/Ne and Xe/Ne in the lower mantle if a dominant fraction of upper mantle Ar and Xe are subduction-derived. If Earth formed in the presence of the solar nebula, it could have been melted by accretional energy and the blanketing effect of a massive, nebula-derived atmosphere. Gases from this atmosphere would have been sequestered within the molten Earth by dissolution at the surface and downward mixing. It was found that too much Ne would be dissolved in the Earth unless the atmosphere began to escape when the Earth was only partially assembled. Here we consider conditions required to initially dissolve sufficient rare gases to account for the present lower mantle concentrations after subsequent losses at 10(exp 8) yr. It is assumed that equilibration of the atmosphere with a thoroughly molten mantle was rapid, so that initial abundances of gases retained in any mantle layer reflected surface conditions when the layer solidified. For subsequent gas loss of 99.5% and typical solubility coefficients, a total pressure of 100 atm was required for an atmosphere of solar composition. Calculations of the pressure at the base of a primordial atmosphere indicate that this value might be exceeded by an order of magnitude or more for an atmosphere supported by accretional energy. Surface temperatures of about 4000 K would have been produced, probably high enough to melt the deep mantle. Initial distributions of retained rare gases would then be determined by the history of surface pressure and temperature during mantle cooling and solidification, i.e., the coupled cooling of Earth and atmosphere. The Earth's thermal state was determined by its surface temperature and the efficiency of convection in the molten mantle, estimated to be sufficient to maintain an adiabatic gradient. Because the melting curve is steeper than the adiabat, solidification of the mantle proceeded outward from the interior. Incorporation of atmospheric gases in the mantle therefore occurred over a range in surface temperature of a few thousand degrees Kelvin. The thermal state of the atmosphere was controlled by total luminosity of the Earth (energy) released by accreting planetesimals and the cooling Earth), nebular temperature and pressure, and atmospheric opacity. The energy released by accretion declined with time as did nebular pressure. Analytical solutions for an idealized (constant opacity radiative atmosphere show that declining energy sources under constant nebular conditions result in slowly diminishing surface temperature but dramatically increasing surface pressure. For such an atmosphere with declining nebular pressure but constant total luminosity, surface pressure decreases gradually with decreasing temperaure. A decline in accretion luminosity might be compensated by energy released as the mantle cools for about 10(exp 5) year, after which luminosity must decline. The total complement of dissolved rare gases will depend on the particular evolutionary path determined by the declining accretional luminosity, the Earth thermal history, removal of the nebula, and opacity variations of the atmosphere. Models for these coupled evolutionary histories for Earth's acquisition of nebular-derived noble gases are in progress. The later losses required at about 10(exp 8) yr (depleting the interior concentrations of the sequestered solar gases by a factor of > 100) were presumably related to the major impact in which the Moon formed.

Porcelli, D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Variation in Global Chemical Composition of PM2.5: Emerging Results from SPARTAN

The Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) is a long-term project that includes characterization of chemical and physical attributes of aerosols from filter samples collected worldwide. This paper discusses the ongoing efforts of SPARTAN to define and quantify major ions and trace metals found in fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5). Our methods infer the spatial and temporal variability of PM (sub 2.5) in a cost-effective manner. Gravimetrically weighed filters represent multi-day averages of PM (sub 2.5), with a collocated nephelometer sampling air continuously. SPARTAN instruments are paired with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) sun photometers to better understand the relationship between ground-level PM (sub 2.5) and columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD). We have examined the chemical composition of PM (sub 2.5) at 12 globally dispersed, densely populated urban locations and a site at Mammoth Cave (US) National Park used as a background comparison. So far, each SPARTAN location has been active between the years 2013 and 2016 over periods of 2-26 months, with an average period of 12 months per site. These sites have collectively gathered over 10 years of quality aerosol data. The major PM (sub 2.5) constituents across all sites (relative contribution plus or minus Standard Deviation) are ammoniated sulfate (20 percent plus or minus 11 percent), crustal material (13.4 percent plus or minus 9.9 percent), equivalent black carbon (11.9 percent plus or minus 8.4 percent), ammonium nitrate (4.7 percent plus or minus 3.0 percent), sea salt (2.3 percent plus or minus 1.6 percent), trace element oxides (1.0 percent plus or minus 1.1 percent), water (7.2 percent plus or minus 3.3 percent) at 35 percent relative humidity, and residual matter (40 percent plus or minus 24 percent). Analysis of filter samples reveals that several PM (sub 2.5) chemical components varied by more than an order of magnitude between sites. Ammoniated sulfate ranges from 1.1 microns per cubic meter (Buenos Aires, Argentina) to 17 microns per cubic meter (Kanpur, India in the dry season). Ammonium nitrate ranged from 0.2 microns per cubic meter (Mammoth Cave, in summer) to 6.8 microns per cubic meter (Kanpur, dry season). Equivalent black carbon ranged from 0.7 microns per cubic meter (Mammoth Cave) to over 8 microns per cubic meter (Dhaka, Bangladesh and Kanpur, India). Comparison of SPARTAN vs. coincident measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network at Mammoth Cave yielded a high degree of consistency for daily PM (sub 2.5) (r squared equals 0.76, slope equals 1.12), daily sulfate (r squared equals 0.86, slope equals 1.03), and mean fractions of all major PM (sub 2.5) components (within 6 percent). Major ions generally agree well with previous studies at the same urban locations (e.g. sulfate fractions agree within 4 percent for 8 out of 11 collocation comparisons). Enhanced anthropogenic dust fractions in large urban areas (e.g. Singapore, Kanpur, Hanoi, and Dhaka) are apparent from high Zn to Al ratios. The expected water contribution to aerosols is calculated via the hygroscopicity parameter kappa (sub v (volume)) for each filter. Mean aggregate values ranged from 0.15 (Ilorin) to 0.28 (Rehovot). The all-site parameter mean is 0.20 plus or minus 0.04. Chemical composition and water retention in each filter measurement allows inference of hourly PM (sub 2.5) at 35 percent relative humidity by merging with nephelometer measurements. These hourly PM (sub 2.5) estimates compare favourably with a beta attenuation monitor (MetOne) at the nearby US embassy in Beijing, with a coefficient of variation r squared equals 0.67 (number equals 3167), compared to r squared equals 0.62 when v (volume) was not considered. SPARTAN continues to provide an open-access database of PM (sub 2.5) compositional filter information and hourly mass collected from a global federation of instruments.

Snider, Graydon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗