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At least 523 records · Page 29

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

In Search of Optimum Fresh-Cut Raw Material: Using Computer Vision Systems as a Sensory Screening Tool for Browning-Resistant Romaine Lettuce Accessions

The popularity of ready-to-eat (RTE) salads has prompted novel technology to prolong the shelf life of their ingredients. Fresh-cut romaine lettuce is widely used in RTE salads; however, its tendency to quickly discolor continues to be a challenge for the industry. Selecting the ideal lettuce accessions for use in RTE salads is essential to ensure maximum shelf life, and it is critical to have a practical way to assess and compare the quality of multiple lettuce accessions that are being considered for use in fresh-cut applications. Thus, in this work we aimed to determine whether a computer vision system (CVS) composed of image acquisition, processing, and analysis could be effective to detect visual quality differences among 16 accessions of fresh-cut romaine lettuce during postharvest storage. The CVS involved a post-capturing color correction, effective image segmentation, and calculation of a browning index, which was tested as a predictor of quality and shelf life of fresh-cut romaine lettuce. The results demonstrated that machine vision software can be implemented to replace or supplement the scoring of a trained panel and instrumental quality measurements. Overall visual quality, a key sensory parameter that determines food preferences and consumer behavior, was highly correlated with the browning index, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.85. Other important sensory decision parameters were also strongly or moderately correlated with the browning index, with Pearson correlation coefficients of −0.84 for freshness, 0.79 for off odor, and 0.57 for browning. The ranking of the accessions according to quality acceptability from the sensory evaluation produced a similar pattern to those obtained with the CVS. This study revealed that multiple lettuce accessions can be effectively benchmarked for their performance as fresh-cut sources via a CVS-based method. Future opportunities and challenges in using machine vision image processing to predict consumer preferences for RTE salad greens is also discussed.

Agriculture↗

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electrochemical leaching of spent LIBs: Kinetics, novel reactor, and modeling

The use of electrons as main reagent for the recovery and recycling of critical metals from spent lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is a process electrification strategy that can be used to close the life-cycle loop of LIBs through more sustainable methods. Electrochemical leaching, a process that uses a reductant that is constantly regenerated electrochemically for the leaching of lithium-ion battery black mass (LIBBM), has shown high extraction efficiencies and sustainable scores. However, slow kinetics, reactor design challenges and lack of deeper understanding of the underlying processes are barriers to the optimization, scale-up, and market adoption of this technology. In this paper, a kinetic study and mathematical model for dissolving LIBBM is presented to better understand the underlying mechanisms aiming to reduce the processing time and make predictions for future design and scale-up. The effect of acid and electrochemically mediated reductant concentrations, LIBBM loading, and cathode/reactor designs were explored. As a result, the leaching time was reduced from 7h to under 1h at a pulp density of 73 g/L, without external heating. A novel reactor with parallel baffle electrodes (PBE) was developed, which significantly reduced the leaching time by improving convection in a stirred slurry electrochemical reactor. Dimensionless numbers were deduced from an unsteady state model, which can be used in dimensional analysis for future process design and scale-up.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Exploring the design space of PV-plus-battery system configurations under evolving grid conditions

In this study, we explore how the energy and capacity values of coupled systems comprising solar photovoltaic arrays and battery storage (PV-plus-battery systems) could evolve over time based on the evolution of the bulk power system. Using a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices projected from the present to 2050, we simulate the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of DC-coupled PV-plus-battery configurations in three locations in the United States. These configurations are defined by the inverter loading ratio (ILR, the ratio of the PV array capacity to the inverter capacity, which we vary from 1.4 to 2.6) and the battery-inverter ratio (BIR, the ratio of the battery power capacity to the inverter capacity, which we vary from 0.25 to 1.0). Based on each configuration's total value, we estimate the breakeven costs needed to justify each incremental increase in ILR (holding BIR constant) or BIR (holding ILR constant). We find that, in a future with low-cost renewable energy technologies, PV-plus-battery system ILRs can be economically increased to around 2.0-2.4 at a BIR of 1.0, depending on solar resource. Our results indicate that a likely evolution of PV-plus-battery system design will be increasingly greater battery power capacity to mitigate the declining PV capacity value, which will, in turn, enable increasingly higher ILRs to further increase energy value. The extent to which PV-plus-systems will be deployed with increasingly higher ILRs depends primarily on whether PV cost declines outpace declining value and increasing curtailment over time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Optimizing Pumped Storage in a Multi-stage Large Scale Electricity Market under Portfolio Evolution

To leverage the fast-ramping capability of resources to provide great value to the grid, electricity system operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) continue to evolve their approaches for integrating energy storage resources, including pumpedstorage hydro (PSH), into the electricity markets. However, new challenges arise in modeling and optimizing these energy-limited resources across multiple market clearing processes and planning studies with uncertainties and imperfect information. For instance, current market practices of PSH owners specifying pumping/generating hours can result in sub-optimal generation dispatch. Letting grid operators optimize PSH with the consideration of multiple operating modes and energy limitation constraints can potentially bring economic benefits to both the system and the PSH owners. However, in multi-stage clearing process of electricity markets, utilizing the PSH flexibility to deal with realized uncertainties can cause deviation in the multi-stage scheduling processes. The resulting financial risks from the schedule deviation may not be acceptable to PSH owners. In addition, to effectively utilize this energy limited resource, the state of charge (SOC) constraints of PSH needs to be continuously optimized and the marginal cost of deviation need to reflect the expected cost to purchase or sell energy at future times to compensate for deviations. This project aims to develop a prototype enhanced PSH model and improved price signals in the multi-stage market clearing process with proper consideration of the unique characteristics of PSH, in order to better align underlying PSH capabilities with evolving grid needs, particularly including the needs for more frequent and larger cycling to manage variability and uncertainty from renewables.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

To meet the nation's decarbonization goals, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Futures study forecasts that installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity must increase nearly tenfold, from 80 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to approximately 760 GW cumulative installed capacity by 2035. Ground-mounted PV is expected to dominate future solar deployment and will require more than 3.5 million acres of land to meet annual demand projections (of nearly 45 GW) by 2030. However, various competing demands for land (e.g., agricultural production, conservation) and high land acquisition costs in specific locations could be challenges to meeting future PV demand solely with ground-mounted PV deployment. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) may be an alternative in locations where ground-mounted PV is not feasible and aid in reaching the nation's PV deployment and decarbonization goals. FPV is a newer siting approach in which a PV array is affixed to a floating apparatus and sited on a water body like a reservoir behind a dam. FPV systems may be stand-alone or co-located at new or existing hydroelectric facilities or pumped storage hydropower (PSH) facility reservoirs. Co-located FPV systems may or may not be operationally paired and work in tandem with the hydroelectric or PSH facility. This report provides novel analysis to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with developing stand-alone and co-located FPV projects on reservoirs in the United States. Specifically, the report explores potential environmental and energy benefits and environmental impacts associated with the siting, construction, and operation of FPV projects. The report also identifies and analyzes U.S. federal- and state-issued permits and authorizations required by federal laws to understand the licensing pathways and regulatory requirements for FPV projects sited on reservoirs licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and on powered and non-powered reservoirs owned by the Bureau of Reclamation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

To meet the nation's decarbonization goals, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Futures study forecasts that installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity must increase nearly tenfold, from 80 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to approximately 760 GW cumulative installed capacity by 2035. Ground-mounted PV is expected to dominate future solar deployment and will require more than 3.5 million acres of land to meet annual demand projections (of nearly 45 GW) by 2030. However, various competing demands for land (e.g., agricultural production, conservation) and high land acquisition costs in specific locations could be challenges to meeting future PV demand solely with ground-mounted PV deployment. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) may be an alternative in locations where ground-mounted PV is not feasible and aid in reaching the nation's PV deployment and decarbonization goals. FPV is a newer siting approach in which a PV array is affixed to a floating apparatus and sited on a water body like a reservoir behind a dam. FPV systems may be stand-alone or co-located at new or existing hydroelectric facilities or pumped storage hydropower (PSH) facility reservoirs. Co-located FPV systems may or may not be operationally paired and work in tandem with the hydroelectric or PSH facility. This report provides novel analysis to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with developing stand-alone and co-located FPV projects on reservoirs in the United States. Specifically, the report explores potential environmental and energy benefits and environmental impacts associated with the siting, construction, and operation of FPV projects. The report also identifies and analyzes U.S. federal- and state-issued permits and authorizations required by federal laws to understand the licensing pathways and regulatory requirements for FPV projects sited on reservoirs licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and on powered and non-powered reservoirs owned by the Bureau of Reclamation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

AquaPV: Regulatory and Environmental Considerations for Floating Photovoltaic Projects Located on Federally Controlled Reservoirs in the United States

To meet the nation's decarbonization goals, the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Futures study forecasts that installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity must increase nearly tenfold, from 80 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to approximately 760 GW cumulative installed capacity by 2035. Ground-mounted PV is expected to dominate future solar deployment and will require more than 3.5 million acres of land to meet annual demand projections (of nearly 45 GW) by 2030. However, various competing demands for land (e.g., agricultural production, conservation) and high land acquisition costs in specific locations could be challenges to meeting future PV demand solely with ground-mounted PV deployment. Floating photovoltaics (FPV) may be an alternative in locations where ground-mounted PV is not feasible and aid in reaching the nation's PV deployment and decarbonization goals. FPV is a newer siting approach in which a PV array is affixed to a floating apparatus and sited on a water body like a reservoir behind a dam. FPV systems may be stand-alone or co-located at new or existing hydroelectric facilities or pumped storage hydropower (PSH) facility reservoirs. Co-located FPV systems may or may not be operationally paired and work in tandem with the hydroelectric or PSH facility. This report provides novel analysis to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with developing stand-alone and co-located FPV projects on reservoirs in the United States. Specifically, the report explores potential environmental and energy benefits and environmental impacts associated with the siting, construction, and operation of FPV projects. The report also identifies and analyzes U.S. federal- and state-issued permits and authorizations required by federal laws to understand the licensing pathways and regulatory requirements for FPV projects sited on reservoirs licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and on powered and non-powered reservoirs owned by the Bureau of Reclamation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Reversible Structural Phase Transition by Electrochemically-Driven Ion Injection into a Conjugated Polymer

We nd that conjugated polymers can undergo reversible structural phase transitions during electrochemical oxidation and ion injection. We study poly[2,5-bis(thiophenyl)-1,4-bis(2-(2-(2- methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)ethoxy)benzene] (PB2T-TEG), a conjugated polymer with glycolated side chains. Using grazing incidence wide angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS), we show that, in contrast to previously known polymers, this polymer switches between two structurally distinct crystalline phases associated with electrochemical oxidation/reduction in an aqueous electrolyte. Importantly, we show that this unique phase change behavior has important physical consequences for ion transport. Notably, using moving front experi- ments visualized by both optical microscopy and super-resolution photoinduced force microscopy (PiFM), we show that a propagating ion front in PB2T-TEG exhibits non-Fickian transport, retaining a sharp step-edge prole, in stark contrast to the Fickian diusion more commonly observed. This structural phase transition is reminiscent of those accompanying ion uptake in inorganic materials like LiFePO4. We propose that engineering similar properties in future conjugated polymers may enable the realization of new materials with superior performance in electrochemical energy storage or neuromorphic memory applications.

Bischak, Connor G.↗

Decovalex-2019 (Task A Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. This document is the final report of Task A which was proposed by the DECOVALEX Project and coordinated by the British Geological Survey (BGS), presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. The purpose of Task A under DECOVALEX-2019 is to better understand the processes governing the advective movement of gas in both low-permeability argillaceous repository host rocks and clay-based engineered barriers. Special attention is given to the mechanisms controlling gas entry, flow and pathway sealing and their impact on the performance of the engineered clay barrier. Previous work suggests gas flow may be accompanied by the creation of dilatant pathways whose properties change temporally and spatially within the medium. Thus, new numerical representations for the quantitative prediction of gas migration fluxes through argillaceous rock formations have been developed. These provide an invaluable tool with which to assess the impact of gas flow on repository layout and therefore design of any future facility. In addition, experience gained through this task is of direct relevance to other clay-based engineering issues where immiscible gas flow is a consideration including shale gas, hydrocarbon migration, carbon capture and storage and landfill design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

First-principles Modeling and Design of Solid-State Interfaces for the Protection and Use of Lithium Metal Anodes

Li-ion batteries are one of the most advanced energy storage technologies in use today. Li-ion batteries are used in a multitude of applications ranging from consumer electronics, medical devices, sensors and grid storage. However, improving the capacity and energy density delivered by current Li-ion technology requires advanced materials research into novel chemical systems. In this project we have focused particularly in the use of solid-state electrolytes with lithium metal electrodes. Research into all solid-state batteries (ASSB) with Li metal electrodes has significantly expanded in recent years, however most studies reported experimental findings, which left substantial room for theoretical and modeling work as a tool to understand and determine design principles allowing reliable and safe use of ASSBs with Li metal. Among the remaining obstacles preventing reliable use of ASSBs with a Li metal electrode, the stability of the interface between the solid electrolyte and Li metal, and the propagation/dendrite formation of Li metal and resulting mechanical degradation of the electrolyte are key phenomenon that are yet to be fully understood. In the current project we have addressed these two coupled phenomena using first principles calculations and mesoscale continuum modeling. We have obtained chemical and electrochemical stability windows for several solid electrolyte materials. Additionally, from mathematical and numerical modeling of Li protrusion and dendrite initiation during plating and stripping we have determined design criteria in terms of chemical, electrochemical, and mechanical properties and operating conditions for which stable deposition can occur. We also considered the effects of mixed electronic-ionic conduction in solid electrolytes, which has more recently been suggested as another important mechanism involved in ASSB failure. Throughout our work we have successfully addressed important questions necessary for the use of ASSB’s. We have determined guiding principles for materials properties and operating conditions necessary to operate ASSB’s. And have proposed novel solid electrolyte materials with predicted chemical stability an ionic conductivity. Although this represents significant progress in our understanding, open questions remain in order to fully develop reliable and safely operate ASSBs with Li metal. Future work, building on this project will require further experimental, theoretical and simulation efforts to address remaining questions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Metagenomic insights into the taxonomy, function, and dysbiosis of prokaryotic communities in octocorals

Background. In octocorals (Cnidaria Octocorallia), the functional relationship between host health and its symbiotic consortium has yet to be determined. Here, we employed comparative metagenomics to uncover the distinct functional and phylogenetic features of the microbiomes of healthy Eunicella gazella, Eunicella verrucosa, and Leptogorgia sarmentosa tissues, in contrast with the microbiomes found in seawater and sediments. We further explored how the octocoral microbiome shifts to a pathobiome state in E. gazella. Results. Multivariate analyses based on 16S rRNA genes, Clusters of Orthologous Groups of proteins (COGs), Protein families (Pfams), and secondary metabolite-biosynthetic gene clusters annotated from 20 Illumina-sequenced metagenomes each revealed separate clustering of the prokaryotic communities of healthy tissue samples of the three octocoral species from those of necrotic E. gazella tissue and surrounding environments. While the healthy octocoral microbiome was distinguished by so-far uncultivated Endozoicomonadaceae, Oceanospirillales, and Alteromonadales phylotypes in all host species, a pronounced increase of Flavobacteriaceae and Alphaproteobacteria, originating from seawater, was observed in necrotic E. gazella tissue. Increased abundances of eukaryotic-like proteins, exonucleases, restriction endonucleases, CRISPR/Cas proteins, and genes encoding for heat-shock proteins, inorganic ion transport, and iron storage distinguished the prokaryotic communities of healthy octocoral tissue regardless of the host species. An increase of arginase and nitric oxide reductase genes, observed in necrotic E. gazella tissues, suggests the existence of a mechanism for suppression of nitrite oxide production by which octocoral pathogens may overcome the host’s immune system. Conclusions. This is the first study to employ primer-less, shotgun metagenome sequencing to unveil the taxonomic, functional, and secondary metabolism features of prokaryotic communities in octocorals. Our analyses reveal that the octocoral microbiome is distinct from those of the environmental surroundings, is host genus (but not species) specific, and undergoes large, complex structural changes in the transition to the dysbiotic state. Host-symbiont recognition, abiotic-stress response, micronutrient acquisition, and an antiviral defense arsenal comprising multiple restriction endonucleases, CRISPR/Cas systems, and phage lysogenization regulators are signatures of prokaryotic communities in octocorals. We argue that these features collectively contribute to the stabilization of symbiosis in the octocoral holobiont and constitute beneficial traits that can guide future studies on coral reef conservation and microbiome therapy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Considerations for Distributed Energy Resource Integration in Puerto Rico: DOE Multi-Lab Grid Modeling Support for Puerto Rico; Analytical Support for Interconnection and IEEE Std 1547-2018 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Task 3.0)

To ensure the sustainable long-term recovery of Puerto Rico's electric power grid from hurricanes María and Irma and to build capacity to manage future potential natural disasters in the most secure and resilient way, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) convened experts from multiple national laboratories to develop a comprehensive set of data, models, analytic tools, and studies, considering inputs from a wide variety of stakeholder groups, to support technically sound recommendations for Puerto Rico's energy investment decisions. A resilient electric grid is vital to Puerto Rico's security, economy, and way of life, and it will provide the foundation for essential services that people and businesses on the island rely on every day. This report shows progress for a grid modeling task under the DOE-sponsored project that is a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and other national laboratories. In Phase 1 of the multilab effort to support Puerto Rico's recovery, NREL provided the utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) recommendations for a new framework of interconnection standards to accelerate the integration of utility-scale, transmission-connected renewable electrical generation and energy storage that ensure cross-technology compatibility and enable high deployment levels without compromising grid reliably, safety, or security. This Phase 2 report focuses on the interconnection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system in Puerto Rico. This report is intended to familiarize the reader with Puerto Rico's distribution infrastructure and operational practices and procedures that are relevant to DER interconnection. The report also provides considerations for streamlining the interconnection process given the expected increase in deployments resulting from Puerto Rico's renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goal of 100% renewables by 2050. Accordingly, the report identifies considerations and concerns associated with the increase in intermittent generation, strategies for DER interconnection best practices, and the potential use of the latest technological solutions identified in the latest revision of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 1547-2018 interconnection standard.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

WBS 1.2.3.405 - Life Cycle Assessment of Storage Technologies

Recent commitments by the Biden administration have established targets to achieve a net-zero energy system by 2050. Meeting these targets will spur a rapid transition to clean energy technologies and a commensurate need to develop and deploy energy storage technologies at scale. Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) is expected to be part of this solution because its ability to provide grid flexibility and stability and enable the dispatching of disparate variable renewable energy technologies. Despite PSH being a mature technology with a history of deployment dating back several decades, there is very little information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of PSH as compared to other storage technologies. The objective of this project is to perform a full lifecycle assessment (LCA) of new PSH projects in the U.S. This LCA includes all project phases (resource extraction, construction, operation, maintenance, end-of-life). The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh electricity delivered by system to grid substation connection point and the estimated lifetime for our base case is 80 years. Data used in this study are based on over 30 potential PSH projects that are in preliminary planning phases and are represent a wide range of potential closed-loop PSH systems in terms of location, technology, and capacity. The project approach, data sources, and modeling assumptions have been informed by a technical review committee of stakeholders that include experts from academia, national and international government, industry, and utilities. The GHGs and energy return on investment (EROI) from PSH will be compared to other storage technologies (e.g., stationary battery storage). Results from this project will improve the PSH community's understanding of the environmental impacts and sustainability of new PSH projects and how PSH compares to other storage technologies. The approach used in this project relies on open-source programming. The analysis framework (source code and data) and will be made publicly available at the end of the project. In addition to reporting results for the base case, we will perform rigorous sensitivity analysis to identify the major drivers, understand impacts of different configurations, and future energy markets. Results from this project will be published in a suitable journal.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗