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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

srlife : A software tool for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar receivers. Part II – Ceramic receivers

As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat demands, high-temperature metallic materials, including nickel-based superalloys, face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. Advanced ceramics offer a promising alternative due to their superior high-temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the performance of ceramic components requires a fundamentally different approach from that used for metallic components. This Part II of a two-part paper describes the integration of ceramic statistical failure models within srlife – an open-source tool for predicting the life of high-temperature CSP receivers. These models account for the inherent variability in ceramic strength, as well as the effects of subcritical crack growth (SCG) under high temperature cyclic loads. Here, the paper includes an example problem that demonstrate the process of evaluating ceramic receivers using srlife. Part I details the life estimation process for metallic receivers (i.e. creep-fatigue life) along with input and output data structure, thermohydraulic analysis, and structural analysis. The complete tool is available as open-source software at https://github.com/srlife-project/srlife and can be installed via the PyPi package manager (https://pypi.org). By supporting both ceramic and metallic receiver analyses, srlife facilitates fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic designs, enabling accurate evaluations of plant efficiency and the economic benefits of ceramic solar receivers and other components.

High temperature ceramic receivers↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prospects and Limitations of Predicting Fuel Ignition Properties from Low-Temperature Speciation Data

Using chemical kinetic modeling and statistical analysis, we investigate the possibility of correlating key chemical “markers”–typically small molecules–formed during very lean (φ ~ 0.001) oxidation experiments with near-stoichiometric (φ ~ 1) fuel ignition properties. One goal of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of designing a fuel-screening platform, based on small laboratory reactors that operate at low temperatures and use minimal fuel volume. Buras et al. [Combust. Flame2020,216, 472–484] have shown that convolutional neural net (CNN) fitting can be used to correlate first-stage ignition delay times (IDTs) with OH/HO2 measurements during very lean oxidation in low-T flow reactors with better than factor-of-2 accuracy. In this work, we test the limits of applying this correlation-based approach to predict the low-temperature heat release (LTHR) and total IDT, including the sensitivity of total IDT to the equivalence ratio, φ. We demonstrate that first-stage IDT can be reliably correlated with very lean oxidation measurements using compressed sensing (CS), which is simpler to implement than CNN fitting. LTHR can also be predicted via CS analysis, although the correlation quality is somewhat lower than for first-stage IDT. In contrast, the accuracy of total IDT prediction at φ = 1 is significantly lower (within a factor of 4 or worse). Furthermore, these results can be rationalized by the fact that the first-stage IDT and LTHR are primarily determined by low-temperature chemistry, whereas total IDT depends on low-, intermediate-, and high-temperature chemistry. Oxidation reactions are most important at low temperatures, and therefore, measurements of universal molecular markers of oxidation do not capture the full chemical complexity required to accurately predict the total IDT even at a single equivalence ratio. As a result, we find that φ-sensitivity of ignition delay cannot be predicted at all using solely correlation with lean low-T chemical speciation measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Origins of Acid-Gas Stability Behavior in Zeolitic Imidazolate Frameworks: The Unique High Stability of ZIF-71

Zeolitic imidazolate frameworks (ZIFs) are promising materials for industrial process separations, but recent literature reports have highlighted their vulnerability to acid gases (e.g., SO 2 , CO 2 , NO 2 , H 2 S), often present in practical applications. While previous work has documented the widely varying stability behavior of many ZIFs under varying (humid and dry) acid gas environments, efforts to explain or correlate these experimental observations via empirical descriptors have not succeeded. A key observation is that ZIF-71 (RHO topology) is an extraordinarily stable ZIF material, retaining both structure and porosity under prolonged humid SO 2 exposure whereas many other well-known ZIFs with different linkers and topologies (such as ZIF-8) were shown to degrade. Through a combination of hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) based methods and statistical mechanical models, we successfully explain this important experimental observation via atomistic investigations of the reaction mechanism. Our holistic approach reveals an ~9 times lower average defect formation rate in ZIF-71 RHO compared to ZIF-8 SOD, leading to the conclusion that the observed experimental stability of this material rises from kinetic effects. Moreover, our analysis reveals that differing stability of the two materials is determined by the distributions of acid gas molecules, which is difficult to capture using empirical descriptors. Furthermore, our results suggest wider applicability of the present approach, toward identifying tuned functional groups and topologies that move the acid gas distributions away from more reactive sites and thus allow enhanced kinetic stability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Multiple Signatures to Improve Accuracy of Substorm Identification

Abstract We have developed a new procedure for combining lists of substorm onset times from multiple sources. We apply this procedure to observational data and to magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model output from 1–31 January 2005. We show that this procedure is capable of rejecting false positive identifications and filling data gaps that appear in individual lists. The resulting combined onset lists produce a waiting time distribution that is comparable to previously published results, and superposed epoch analyses of the solar wind driving conditions and magnetospheric response during the resulting onset times are also comparable to previous results. Comparison of the substorm onset list from the MHD model to that obtained from observational data reveals that the MHD model reproduces many of the characteristic features of the observed substorms, in terms of solar wind driving, magnetospheric response, and waiting time distribution. Heidke skill scores show that the MHD model has statistically significant skill in predicting substorm onset times.

Haiducek, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault

Abstract Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) originating below the central San Andreas Fault are associated with slow‐slip beneath the seismogenic zone within the more ductile portion of the crust. Monitoring efforts over 15 years detected >1 million LFEs. We train a gradient boosted tree model using statistical features describing the seismic waveforms to estimate the hourly LFE event count. The burst‐like LFE behavior is reproduced, while lower amplitudes are predicted during the most active periods. The hourly event counts are up to 18% greater than the catalog. The ability to continuously monitor LFE activity provides insight to when geodetic measurements of slow slip are possible, without the need for developing a computational‐intensive template‐matching catalog. Similar waveform statistical features are found between detecting LFEs and tremors, which provides additional evidence tremors are composed of LFEs. The approach extracts information contained in continuous seismic waveforms that might benefit detecting precursory signals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrical Responses of Modified Mineral Surfaces as Observed With Spectral Induced Polarization and Atomic Force Microscopy

Abstract Atomic force microscopy (AFM) and spectral induced polarization (SIP) are widely used to investigate the electrical properties of mineral surfaces at vastly different scales of measurement. We compare AFM and SIP measurements made on two different materials (glass beads and silica gel) subjected to etching, deposition of iron oxide particles, and inclusion of calcite grains. We found that the treatments produced qualitatively consistent behaviors in the AFM and SIP data. Direct AFM measurements of surface charge density for silica and calcite surfaces were quantitatively compared to values estimated from the SIP results using a grain polarization model. No statistically significant difference (at a 95% confidence level) was found between the surface charge density of silica estimated by AFM (2.3 ± 6.6 mC/m 2 for glass beads and 1.6 ± 0.1 mC/m 2 for silica gel) versus SIP (5.4 ± 4.4 mC/m 2 for glass beads and 1.6 ± 0.5 mC/m 2 for silica gel). The surface charge density for calcite determined by AFM (43.5 ± 12.9 mC/m 2 ) was approximately 19 times higher than that found for silica. While the charge density of calcite surfaces determined by SIP was also generally higher than that found for silica, different treatments produced significantly different values between 4.7 and 258 mC/m 2 (with a maximum 95% CI of ±8.7 mC/m 2 ). Several possible explanations exist for the range of the observed SIP measurements, including aging of the calcite surfaces. Overall, this study suggests the potential for the complementary use of AFM and SIP measurements to constrain future investigations of polarization mechanisms in porous media.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrast and Predictability of Island‐Scale El Niño Influences on Hawaii Wave Climate

Abstract The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences ocean wave activity across the Pacific, but its effects on island shores are modulated by local weather and selective sheltering of multi‐modal seas. Utilizing 41 years of high‐resolution wave hindcasts, we decipher the season‐ and locality‐dependent connections between ENSO and wave patterns around the Hawaiian Islands. The north and west‐facing shores, exposed to energetic northwest swells during boreal winters, experience the most pronounced ENSO‐related variability, with increased high‐surf activity during El Niño years. While the year‐round trade wind waves exhibit moderate correlation with ENSO, the basin‐wide climate influence is masked by locally accelerated trade winds in channels and around large headlands. The remarkable global‐to‐local pathway through the high‐resolution hindcast enables development of an ENSO‐based semi‐empirical wave model to statistically describe and predict severe wave conditions on vulnerable shores with potential application in coastal risk management and hazard mitigation for Pacific Islands and beyond.

Zhao, Sen [Department of Atmospheric Sciences Scho↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distributed Acoustic Sensing to Estimate the Permeability

Optical fiber in a borehole can be interrogated with distributed acoustic sensors (DAS) to capture fracture displacements with the potential to map surrounding fracture networks. We designed a laboratory experiment to test the capability of DAS to determine borehole flow characteristics, and we show that for the first time DAS can be used to remotely estimate permeability. Optical fiber was wrapped around a bead filled pipe and the pressure drop and flow velocity were measured to directly calculate permeability. A machine learning model using statistical features from continuous DAS estimated the bulk permeability. Fluid interactions with the permeable material demonstrate insufficient resolution using DAS amplitude-based measurements for estimating pressure drop to infer permeability. Variations in the spectral domain relate DAS measurements to the pressure drop and provide consistent permeability estimates. Resolution with DAS is sufficient to estimate permeability and provides a reliable method to monitor at depth in borehole conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiplexed characterization of rationally designed promoter architectures deconstructs combinatorial logic for IPTG-inducible systems

Abstract A crucial step towards engineering biological systems is the ability to precisely tune the genetic response to environmental stimuli. In the case of Escherichia coli inducible promoters, our incomplete understanding of the relationship between sequence composition and gene expression hinders our ability to predictably control transcriptional responses. Here, we profile the expression dynamics of 8269 rationally designed, IPTG-inducible promoters that collectively explore the individual and combinatorial effects of RNA polymerase and LacI repressor binding site strengths. We then fit a statistical mechanics model to measured expression that accurately models gene expression and reveals properties of theoretically optimal inducible promoters. Furthermore, we characterize three alternative promoter architectures and show that repositioning binding sites within promoters influences the types of combinatorial effects observed between promoter elements. In total, this approach enables us to deconstruct relationships between inducible promoter elements and discover practical insights for engineering inducible promoters with desirable characteristics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the dynamics of little-bang nucleosynthesis

High-energy nuclear collisions provide a unique site for the synthesis of both nuclei and antinuclei at temperatures of kT ≈ 100 – 150 MeV. In these little bangs of transient collisions, a quark-gluon plasma (QGP) of nearly vanishing viscosity is created, which is believed to have existed in the early universe within the first few microseconds after the Big Bang. Analyses of identified particles produced in these little bangs based on the statistical hadronization model for the QGP have suggested that light (anti)nuclei are produced from the QGP as other hadrons and their abundances are little affected by later hadronic dynamics. Here, we find a strong reduction of the triton yield by about a factor of 1.8 in high-energy heavy-ion collisions based on a kinetic approach that includes the effects of hadronic re-scatterings, particularly that due to pion-catalyzed multi-body reactions. This finding is supported by the latest experimental measurements and thus unveils the important role of hadronic dynamics in the little-bang nucleosynthesis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active site design enables industrial scale H 2 O 2 electrosynthesis with metal-free catalysts

The electrosynthesis of hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) via a two-electron oxygen reduction reaction enables decentralized H 2 O 2 production. While metal-free carbon catalysts are sustainable and low-cost, their performance is hindered by poorly defined active sites and uncontrolled defect states. Here, we resolve these challenges through active site design and catalyst screening using fluorine (F) and nitrogen (N) codoped carbons as model materials. Statistical analysis combined with density functional theoretical calculations reveals that F-induced structural modification and defect passivation optimize OOH* binding, with F-doping and adjacent F atoms predominantly lowering abs ΔG(OOH*). Experimental results confirm that semi-ionic C–F bonds passivate defects in nitrogen-doped carbon, enhancing catalytic activity and durability. The resulting (N, F)-codoped carbon achieves nearly 100% H 2 O 2 selectivity at 0.5–0.65 V versus the reversible hydrogen electrode and maintains > 95% across 0.01–0.65 V versus the reversible hydrogen electrode. In an electrolyzer, (N, F)-codoped carbon exhibits an H 2 O 2 yield rate of 74.35 mol g cat. −1 h -1 and sustains 300 mA cm -2 for 105 hours with ~95% faradaic efficiency. Coupling the two-electron oxygen reduction reaction with methanol oxidation further reduces cell voltage and enhances productivity. This work provides a means to design efficient catalysts for industrial H 2 O 2 electrosynthesis.

H2O2 electrosynthesis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precision mass measurement of lightweight self-conjugate nucleus 80 Zr

Protons and neutrons in the atomic nucleus move in shells analogous to the electronic shell structures of atoms. The nuclear shell structure varies due to changes of the nuclear mean field with the number of neutrons N and protons Z, and these variations can be probed by measuring mass differences between nuclei. The N=Z=40 self-conjugate nucleus 80 Zr is of particular interest as its proton and neutron shell structures are expected to be very similar, and its ground state is highly deformed. Here, we provide evidence for the existence of a deformed double shell closure in 80Zr through high precision Penning trap mass measurements of 80-83 Zr. Our mass values show that 80Zr is significantly lighter, and thus more strongly bound than predicted. This can be attributed to the deformed shell closure at N=Z=40 and the large Wigner energy. A statistical Bayesian model mixing analysis employing several global nuclear mass models demonstrates difficulties with reproducing the observed mass anomaly using current theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dominant controls of cold-season precipitation variability over the high mountains of Asia

A robust understanding of the sub-seasonal cold season (November–March) precipitation variability over the High Mountains of Asia (HMA) is lacking. Here, we identify dynamic and thermodynamic pathways through which natural modes of climate variability establish their teleconnections over the HMA. First, we identify evaporative sources that contribute to the cold season precipitation over the HMA and surrounding areas. The predominant moisture contribution comes from the mid-latitude regions, including the Mediterranean/Caspian Seas and Mediterranean land. Second, we establish that several tropical and extratropical forcings display a sub-seasonally fluctuating influence on precipitation distribution over the region during the cold season. Many of them varyingly interact, so their impacts cannot be explained independently or at seasonal timescales. Lastly, a single set of evaporative sources is not identifiable as the key determinant in propagating a remote teleconnection because the sources of moisture anomalies depend on the pattern of sub-seasonally varying dynamical forcing in the atmosphere.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Koopman operators for causal discovery

Causal discovery aims to identify cause-effect mechanisms for better scientific understanding, explainable decision-making, and more accurate modeling. Standard statistical frameworks, such as Granger causality, lack the ability to quantify causal relationships in nonlinear dynamics due to the presence of complex feedback mechanisms, timescale mixing, and nonstationarity. Thus, applying these methods to study causal dynamics in real-world systems, such as the Earth, is a major challenge. Addressing this shortcoming, we leverage deep learning and a Koopman operator-theoretic formalism to present a class of causal discovery algorithms. Kausal uses deep Koopman operator methods to approximate nonlinear dynamics in a linearized vector space in which traditional causal inference methods such as Granger causality can be more easily applied. Our idealized experiments demonstrate Kausal’s superior ability in discovering and characterizing causal signals compared to existing deep learning and non-deep learning state-of-the-art approaches. Finally, the successful identification of major El Niño and La Niña events in observations showcases Kausal’s skill to handle real-world applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design principles for the ultimate gas deliverable capacity material: nonporous to porous deformations without volume change

Understanding the fundamental limits of gas deliverable capacity in porous materials is of critical importance as it informs whether technical targets (e.g., for on-board vehicular storage) are feasible. High-throughput screening studies of rigid materials, for example, have shown they are not able to achieve the original ARPA-E methane storage targets, yet an interesting question remains: what is the upper limit of deliverable capacity in flexible materials? In this work we develop a statistical adsorption model that specifically probes the limit of deliverable capacity in intrinsically flexible materials. The resulting adsorption thermodynamics indicate that a perfectly designed, intrinsically flexible nanoporous material could achieve higher methane deliverable capacity than the best benchmark systems known to date with little to no total volume change. Density functional theory and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations identify a known metal–organic framework (MOF) that validates key features of the model. Therefore, this work (1) motivates a continued, extensive effort to rationally design a porous material analogous to the adsorption model and (2) calls for continued discovery of additional high deliverable capacity materials that remain hidden from rigid structure screening studies due to nominal non-porosity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploration of lattice Hamiltonians for functional and structural discovery via Gaussian process-based exploration–exploitation

Statistical physics models ranging from simple lattice to complex quantum Hamiltonians are one of the mainstays of modern physics that have allowed both decades of scientific discovery and provided a universal framework to understand a broad range of phenomena from alloying to frustrated and phase separated materials to quantum systems. Traditionally, exploration of the phase diagrams corresponding to multidimensional parameter spaces of Hamiltonians was performed using a combination of basic physical principles, analytical approximations, and extensive numerical modeling. However, exploration of complex multidimensional parameter spaces is subject to the classic dimensionality problem, and the behaviors of interest concentrated on low dimensional manifolds remain undiscovered. Here, we demonstrate that a combination of exploration and exploration–exploitation with Gaussian process modeling and Bayesian optimization allows effective exploration of the parameter space for lattice Hamiltonians and effectively maps the regions at which specific macroscopic functionalities or local structures are maximized. We argue that this approach is general and can be further extended well beyond the lattice Hamiltonians to effectively explore the parameter space of more complex off-lattice and dynamic models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Replica symmetry breaking for the integrable two-site Sachdev–Ye–Kitaev model

We analyze a two-body non-Hermitian two-site Sachdev–Ye–Kitaev (SYK) model with the couplings of one site complex conjugated to the other site. This model, with no explicit coupling between the sites, shows an infinite number of second-order phase transitions, which is a consequence of the factorization of the partition function into a product over Matsubara frequencies. We calculate the quenched free energy in two different ways: first in terms of the single-particle energies and second by solving the Schwinger–Dyson equations of the two-site model. The first calculation can be done entirely in terms of a one-site model. The conjugate replica enters due to non-analyticities when Matsubara frequencies enter the spectral support of the coupling matrix. The second calculation is based on the replica trick of the two-site partition function. Both methods give the same result. The free-fermion partition function can also be rephrased as a matrix model for the coupling matrix. Up to minor details, this model is the random matrix model that describes the chiral phase transition of QCD, and the order parameter of the two-body model corresponds to the chiral condensate of QCD. Comparing to the corresponding four-body model, we are able to determine which features of the free energy are due to the chaotic nature of the four-body model. The high-temperature phase of both models is entropy dominated, and in both cases, the free energy is determined by the spectral density. The chaotic four-body SYK model has a low-temperature phase whose free energy is almost temperature-independent, signaling an effective gap of the theory even though the actual spectrum does not exhibit a gap. On the other hand, the low-temperature free energy of the two-body SYK model is not flat; in fact, it oscillates to arbitrarily low temperature. This indicates a less desirable feature that the entropy of the two-body model is not always positive in the low-temperature phase, which most likely is a consequence of the non-hermiticity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗