Statistical Testing for MCNP
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Statistics, MCNP, MCNP6↗
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How to use manufacturing statistics when tolerancing a lens system
Manuscript to submit to the SPIE Optics + Photonics 2022 conference, August 21–25, 2022, San Diego, California, for publication in the SPIE Digital Library (Proc. SPIE) (https://spie.org/conferences-and-exhibitions/optics-and-photonics?SSO=1).
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB
The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.
climate data↗
Transport phenomena in electrolyte solutions: Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and statistical mechanics
The theory of transport phenomena in multicomponent electrolyte solutions is presented here through the integration of continuum mechanics, electromagnetism, and nonequilibrium thermodynamics. The governing equations of irreversible thermodynamics, including balance laws, Maxwell's equations, internal entropy production, and linear laws relating the thermodynamic forces and fluxes, are derived. Green–Kubo relations for the transport coefficients connecting electrochemical potential gradients and diffusive fluxes are obtained in terms of the flux–flux time correlations. Furthermore, the relationship between the derived transport coefficients and those of the Stefan–Maxwell and infinitely dilute frameworks are presented, and the connection between the transport matrix and experimentally measurable quantities is described. To exemplify the application of the derived Green–Kubo relations in molecular simulations, the matrix of transport coefficients for lithium and chloride ions in dimethyl sulfoxide is computed using classical molecular dynamics and compared with experimental measurements.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches
Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.
Weix, Derek↗
Statistical Correlation Between Quantum Entanglement and Spin–Orbit Coupling in Crossed Beam Molecular Dynamics
Non-classical features like interference are already being harnessed to control the output of chemical reactions. However, quantum entanglement which is an equally enigmatic many-body quantum correlation can also be used as a powerful resource yet has eluded explicit attention. In this report, an experimental scheme under the crossed beam molecular dynamical setup, with the F + HD reaction, is proposed aiming to study the possible influence of entanglement within reactant pairs on the angular features of the product distribution. The aforesaid reaction has garnered interest recently, as an unusual horseshoe shape pattern in the product (HF) distribution was observed, which has been attributed to the coupling of spin and orbital degrees of freedom. An experimental scheme is proposed aiming to study the possible influence of entanglement on the necessity for the inclusion of such spin–orbit characteristics, under circumstances wherein the existence of entanglement and spin–orbit interaction is simultaneously detectable. The attainable results are further numerically simulated highlighting specific patterns corresponding to various possibilities. Finally, such studies if extended can provide unforeseen mechanistic insight into analogous reactions, too, from the lens of quantum information.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
A statistical model of secondary ion emission and attenuation clarifies disparities in quasi-simultaneous arrival coefficients measured with secondary ion mass spectrometry
Not provided.
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
Scenario Planning Management Actions to Restore Cold Water Stream Habitat: Comparing Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling Approaches
ABSTRACT Under the United States Clean Water Act, states are required to periodically assess state waters to determine compliance with water quality criteria (including temperature) and then to develop total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for impaired waters as necessary to bring them into compliance. We compared the performance of mechanistic stream temperature models (HeatSource, QUAL2K, and QUAL2Kw) applied to the mainstem of three TMDL watersheds (Middle Fork John Day, OR; Wind River, WA; South Fork Nooksack, WA) with that of spatial stream network (SSN) models applied to the full watersheds and used these to evaluate the potential effectiveness of restoration strategies. SSN models performed well with slightly lesser accuracy (RMSE = 0.47–0.87) for mainstem predictions than mechanistic models (RMSE = 0.4) but provided additional benefits to inform management, including information on spatial and temporal heterogeneity of restoration effectiveness throughout the watershed. Of the four scenarios considered (restoration of riparian zones to potential natural vegetation, channel narrowing, increasing flow by restricting irrigation withdrawals, and combined applications), riparian zone restoration was consistently the most effective in reducing temperatures at the outlet, mainstem, and throughout the watersheds. Predicted restoration effectiveness for thermal regimes varied significantly both within and among watersheds. A focus on water quality criteria exceedance only at the watershed outlet or along the mainstem reach can obscure knowledge of restoration potential for fish habitat in tributaries and headwaters, potential for creation of thermal refuge areas along the mainstem critical for maintaining migration corridors, and thermal regime heterogeneity across space and time.
Fuller, M. R.↗
How Useful are Conventional I–Vs for Performance Calibration of Single- and Two-Junction Perovskite Solar Cells? A Statistical Analysis of Performance Data on ≈200 Cells from 30 Global Sources
As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well-documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? Results compiled from approximately 200 perovskite PV cells, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. Here, the implications of these findings on performance testing protocols are discussed and possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV are proposed.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Joint statistics of cosmological constant and SUSY breaking in flux vacua with nilpotent Goldstino
We obtain the joint distribution of the gravitino mass and the cosmological constant in KKLT and LVS models with anti-D3 brane uplifting described via the nilpotent goldstino formalism. Moduli stabilisation (of both complex structure and Kähler moduli) is incorporated so that we sample only over points corresponding to vacua. Our key inputs are the distributions of the flux superpotential, the string coupling and the hierarchies of warped throats. In the limit of zero cosmological constant, we find that both in KKLT and LVS the distributions are tilted favourably towards lower scales of supersymmetry breaking.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Spin-statistics for black hole microstates
The gravitational path integral can be used to compute the number of black hole states for a given energy window, or the free energy in a thermal ensemble. In this article we explain how to use the gravitational path integral to compute the separate number of bosonic and fermionic black hole microstates. We do this by comparing the partition function with and without the insertion of (–1) F . In particular we introduce a universal rotating black hole that contributes to the partition function in the presence of (–1) F. We study this problem for black holes in asymptotically flat space and in AdS, putting constraints on the high energy spectrum of holographic CFTs (not necessarily supersymmetric). Finally, we analyze wormhole contributions to related quantities.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Line operators, vortex statistics, and Higgs versus confinement dynamics
We study a 2+1D lattice gauge theory with fundamental representation scalar fields which has both Higgs and confining regimes with a spontaneously-broken U(1) 0-form symmetry. We show that the Higgs and confining regimes may be distinguished by a natural gauge invariant observable: the phase Ω of a correlation function of a vortex line operator linking with an electric Wilson line. We employ dualities and strong coupling expansions to analytically explore parameter regimes which were inaccessible in previous continuum calculations, and discuss possible implications for the phase diagram.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
On the statistical treatment of the Cabibbo angle anomaly
We point out that testing the equality of the Cabibbo angle as extracted from $\Gamma(K\rightarrow \pi l\nu)$, the ratio $\Gamma(K\rightarrow l\nu)/\Gamma(\pi\rightarrow l\nu)$ and nuclear $\beta$ decays is not identical to a test of first row unitarity of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix. The reason is that a CKM unitarity test involves only two parameters, while the degrees of freedom for the assessment of the goodness-of-fit of the universality of the Cabibbo angle entailed by the Standard Model (SM) is equal to the number of measurements minus one. Beyond the SM all different processes could in principle give different Cabibbo angles. Consequently, the difference between the two tests becomes relevant starting from three observables giving results for the Cabibbo angle that are in tension with each other. With current data, depending on the treatment of the nuclear $\beta$ decays, we find that New Physics is favored over the SM at $5.1\,\sigma$ or $3.6\,\sigma$ while CKM unitarity is rejected at $4.8\sigma$ or $3.0\sigma$, respectively. We argue that the best method to test the SM is to test the equality of the Cabibbo angle, because CKM unitarity is only one aspect of the SM.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Gaussian processes, median statistics, Milky Way rotation curves
Not provided.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Application of statistics to correlate groundwater chemistry with land use on O‘ahu, Hawai‘i
Not provided.
Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗