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At least 523 records · Page 29

Techno-economic assessment of distributed wellhead RO water treatment for nitrate removal and salinity reduction: A field study in small disadvantaged communities

Techno-economic analysis of distributed wellhead water treatment and desalination (DWTD) systems was carried out based on a three-year field study in three small, disadvantaged communities (DACs) to evaluate the reliability and affordability of upgrading their impaired well water. The local water supplies of the three study DACs, located in Salinas Valley, California, were contaminated with nitrate at levels (~ 12–87 mg/L NO$^{-}_{3}$ - N) ) above the California maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg/L NO$^{-}_{3}$ - N , and had elevated water salinity (~600–1,600 mg/L total dissolved solids(TDS)) above its secondary MCL (SMCL) of 500 mg/L TDS. Well water nitrate removal and salinity reduction were accomplished via reverse osmosis (RO) based DWTD systems that operated autonomously, supported by remote monitoring and supervisory cyberinfrastructure. Reliable DWTD operation provided treated water quality, with respect to nitrate and salinity, in the range of 0.5–6.3 mg/L NO$^{-}_{3}$ - N and 57–161 mg/L TDS, respectively, which were well below the respective MCL and SMCL. The levelized cost of water treatment was in the range of ~$$2/m 3 - $$2.9/m 3 which aligns with typical residential water costs in California and in the study region, and monthly residential water costs (39 dollars-74 dollars/residential unit/month) were also within the range in California. The study showcased the DWTD approach as a viable and potentially scalable solution for upgrading impaired local potable water supply of communities lacking centralized water delivery infrastructure. However, streamlined permitting processes and standardized regulatory frameworks are critical to promoting wider adoption and maximizing the socio-economic benefits of the DWT approach. Moreover, DACs are likely to require government subsidies in order to cover the CapEx of DWTD systems in addition to upgrade of site infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Can economic drivers enable an affordable, reliable, and resilient energy system in rural Alaska?

Price subsidies, such as the Alaska Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program, are intended to provide affordable energy. However, these economic drivers may be barriers to a clean energy transition and economic development, especially in rural Alaska. Reliable and affordable energy, a challenge in rural Alaska, is the foundation for individual and community security and economic development. Addressing the climate change crisis requires a sustainable transition to decarbonized energy systems that are more equitable, reliable, and affordable.

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Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

Financial-technical co-design for capital-intensive, resource-responsive energy systems

Because of their capital-intensive operation, wind energy systems that are competitive in terms of the cost of the energy that they produce lead to risk-reward trade-offs that make their business cases less favorable than those of conventional energy generation technologies. However, wind energy systems tend to be designed to maximize energy production or minimize cost of energy rather than to maximize their business cases. In this work, we attempt to exploit designs specifically tailored to business cases. We develop a novel framework for analyzing energy systems that ties their design variables to monthly operating incomes using simple models and historical hourly market and resource data. Using this approach, we demonstrate that for a wind site with abundant wind resource in the California Independent System Operator market, we can control the trade-off between mean and 5th percentile monthly returns by choosing the specific power of the turbine at a fixed modeled initial capital cost. Our framework gives a measure of the risk-reward spectrum of energy generation assets that could be built at a given site with respect to the sub-annual resource/market variation.

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The 2021 Defense Strategy Review and Modern Strategic Conflict (Workshop Summary)

On December 15-17, 2020, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The 2021 Defense Strategy Review and Modern Strategic Conflict.” This session was the 7 th Annual Deterrence Workshop that CGSR organized, bringing together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities of the United States and its allies. The workshop examined the challenges of regional wars and multi-domain competition and how a potential 2021 defense strategy review should address them. A special attention was paid to the question of escalation and how it can be controlled at various levels of conflict.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

The Next U.S. Strategic Posture - and the Posture After Next (Workshop Summary)

On July 8-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The Next U.S. Strategic Posture – And the Posture After Next.” This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities in the United States and among allies. The event was a follow-up discussion to CGSR’s last meeting titled “Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Nuclear Posture in 2030 and Beyond.” The July workshop had a broader scope and looked at the different elements of U.S. strategic posture, including not just nuclear capabilities but missile defense, conventional prompt global strike, and space and cyberspace. Participants assessed the 2030 U.S. posture relative to the predicted Russian and Chinese postures, and they examined what capabilities will be crucial beyond 2030.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

U.S. and Allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (Workshop Summary)

On March 30, 31, and April 1, 2021, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled "U.S. and allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific". This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and private sector in the United States and among allied countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The workshop evaluated threat perceptions, assessed cyber power in a regional context, and explored opportunities for building capacity and trust with allies, partners, and the private sector. The region's cyber threat landscape is marked by increasing malicious activity, with threats persistent and ever-growing. Grounded by this strategic reality, the workshop advocated for 1) a concerted push into the arena of norm setting from the bottom up, 2) an agreed metric by which to assess progress, and 3) the creation of future lines of collaborative effort for the United States and its allies to ensure an open, interoperable, and secure internet.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Illuminating Common Ground: Success Factors for Contiguous US Tribal Solar Energy

Tribal energy development is a complex multi-faceted topic. The objective of this work is to identify common themes across tribal solar energy deployment projects, focusing specifically on lessons learned and recommendations. Identifying these commonalities and learning from the experiences of tribes that have embarked in energy development efforts can help to inform the development of future tribal solar energy projects. A thematic qualitative analysis approach was used to analyze project reports and presentations for 41 tribal solar deployment projects (only within the contiguous United States) funded by the Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs, applying a framework of success factors developed from the literature. The results of the qualitative analysis are described in four discrete parts: comprehensive and inclusive planning, fostering partnerships and collaboration, building capacity, and exercising and advancing tribal sovereignty. Each of the overarching themes inform recommendations for tribes to promote the success of solar projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Renewable Energy

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief discusses some of the possible consumer benefits of utility-scale and behind the meter renewable energy, with a focus on how these resources can contribute to a low-cost electricity system. It begins with a literature review of modeled impacts, primarily considering consumer benefits, of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Next, it discusses how utility-scale renewable energy can contribute to a low-cost electricity system (e.g., in some cases, low resource costs relative to other alternatives). It concludes with a discussion of behind-the-meter renewable energy consumer benefits (e.g., reduced host electricity bill, increased property value, resilience).

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Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) Offline Tool: A Tool for Guiding Researchers in Addressing Energy Justice Considerations in Early-Stage Research

The Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) Metrics Framework is a set of metrics for assessing the energy justice implications of technologies that are currently under research and development (R&D). The JUST-R Metrics Framework guides researchers through an analysis of the many facets of their research processes, from material inputs to knowledge sources, that may contribute to energy injustice both during the research period and when the technology is scaled. This JUST-R Offline Tool consists of an Excel file and PDF guide to aid researchers, engineers, and project managers in their application of the JUST-R Metrics Framework. This tool enables researchers to 1) evaluate the baseline energy justice implications of their research; 2) develop justice-oriented changes to the research process; and 3) track the implementation of proposed changes. The metrics included in the framework are sorted into five aspects of research: Team Dynamics, Sources & Inputs, Processes & Protocols, Waste & Hazards, and Results & Dissemination. The JUST-R Tool can be found here: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/just-r.html.

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A Clean Energy Deployment Baseline for the Energy Community and Low-Income Tax Credit Bonuses [Slides]

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced, for the first time, place-based federal tax incentives for projects sited in “Energy Communities,” potentially changing the economic calculus of where projects are best sited. Storage projects can qualify for a 10-percentage-point bonus to the Investment Tax Credit (e.g., from 30% to 40%), while wind and solar projects may qualify for either the ITC bonus or a 10% bonus to the Production Tax Credit (e.g., from $\$27.5$ to $\$30.25$/MWh). Energy Communities are areas with historical ties to fossil fuel industries and above average unemployment levels (FFEU), with closed coal mines or power plants, or contaminated properties. They seek to identify locations across the US that could especially benefit from economic revitalization. This report explores how the new federal tax credit incentives are impacting clean energy deployment patterns and establishes historical baselines against which future changes can be compared. We include a few case studies of clean energy projects going specifically to areas that were recently impacted by coal power plant closures to provide concrete examples of investments in Energy Communities. However, this publication does not assess how much of the incentive benefits pass from clean energy developers to hosting communities, nor does it offer a comprehensive view of the economic effects of clean energy deployment on Energy Communities. Key highlights include: - As clean energy projects take multiple years to conceptualize and develop, it is likely too early to see shifts towards Energy Community locations either among newly built projects or those that entered interconnection queues in 2023. - Approximately 35% of onshore wind, 50% of solar, and 60% of storage capacity built in 2023 and the first half of 2024 are located in Energy Communities, making them likely eligible for bonus incentives. While these bonus incentives were not available to projects coming online before 2023, we used 2023 Energy Community definitions to classify whether past projects were built in what is now considered an Energy Community. The deployment levels for 2023-2024 are similar to recent years (2020-2022) for solar and storage but slightly lower for wind. - Clean energy capacity has surged in the interconnection queues over the last few years, with about 45-50% of both recently proposed and total queued capacity being located in Energy Communities. While the amount of capacity in Energy Communities has also grown, its relative share is either stable (solar and storage) or slightly lower (wind) among projects that entered the queue in 2023. - Clean energy projects can be built at lower costs in Energy Communities. The levelized cost of energy after incentives was on average $\$9$/MWh (24%) lower for solar projects and $\$2$/MWh (6%) lower for wind projects built in 2023, relative to projects not located in Energy Communities. Wholesale electricity values at Energy Community locations relative to the rest of the market vary by region. The average value was often higher for wind projects (-$\$3$ to $\$11$/MWh) but lower for solar projects (-$\$6$ to 0/MWh). - Distributed solar that is owned by commercial entities is eligible for the Energy Community bonus and also, potentially, a Low-Income Community bonus. Residential solar installations in qualifying Energy Communities that are third-party owned represent about 10% of the total residential market. Larger commercial and industrial solar installations in Energy Communities make up 17% of the total market in 2023. Nearly 2 GW of distributed solar was built in areas qualifying as Low-Income Communities in 2023, exceeding the available annual program cap of 700 MW. Continued tracking of these trends will be important for system planners, investors, and local communities.

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Consequential Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Actions That Influence the Electric Grid: The Theory and Practice of Using Marginal Emissions Rates

This paper discusses consequential greenhouse gas emissions analysis for actions that influence the electric grid that is, the analytical approach of estimating how such actions change greenhouse gas emissions, relative to what they otherwise would have been without the action. Although the paper starts with general considerations, it ultimately focuses on consequential analysis with marginal emissions rates as an option likely more scalable than others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transforming Regional Transmission Planning: FERC Order 1920 Explained [Slides]

This presentation presents the key topics from FERC Order 1920: Building for the Future Through Electric Regional Transmission Planning and Cost Allocation. It breaks down and summarizes the main reforms from the regulation including comments from diverse perspectives on how the new rules may be implemented. This presentation can serve as a resource for diverse stakeholders including policymakers, utilities, industry, and researchers who seek to understand how the new ruling may impact regional transmission planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s "Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends" summarizes recent trends in retail electricity price levels and price drivers in the United States. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for the diverse set of decision-makers impacted by changes in retail electricity prices and to provide a factual basis for assessing recent changes in retail electricity prices and key underlying drivers. National, regional, and state trends are reported for 2019 through 2023 using publicly-available data for: -Average retail electricity prices, retail sales, and utility revenues -Utility capital expenditures, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel and purchased power costs -Retail electricity sales impacts from behind-the-meter resources The report also includes qualitative case studies highlighting recent and/or regionally-specific issues contributing significantly to retail electricity price trends

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities for Integrating Electric and Gas Planning

Growing demand for electricity in buildings is creating new opportunities and challenges for electric and natural gas planning. To date, electric and gas planning processes have largely been siloed, and only a few jurisdictions have started to examine how these two processes could be linked together. The report explores the current state of electric and gas system planning, and the benefits and challenges of integrating these planning processes. We frame the characteristics of an integrated electric and gas distribution planning process and identify indicators of progress toward the characteristics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessment of Regional Interconnections to Meet Southeast Asia's Renewable Energy Targets: Phase I of the Singapore – U.S. Collaboration

This report summarizes the results of a study of long-distance subsea electrical interconnections in Southeast Asia, conducted under the first phase of the Singapore-U.S. collaboration under the Net Zero World Initiative. In Phase 1, the Net Zero World team evaluated the current state of the renewable energy landscape in Southeast Asia; developed an open-source capacity expansion model using GridPath and evaluated several future scenarios including changes in interregional transmission; explored the technical feasibility of regional subsea interconnectors; and estimated socio-economic benefits of expanded regional transmission.

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Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

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