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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An adaptive adversarial domain adaptation approach for corn yield prediction

Recently, statistical machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored for corn yield prediction. Though successful, machine learning models generated within a specific spatial domain often lose their validity when directly applied to new regions. To address this issue, we designed an unsupervised adaptive domain adversarial neural network (ADANN). Specifically, through domain adversarial training, the ADANN model reduced the impact of domain shift by projecting data from different domains into the same subspace. Also, the ADANN model was designed to be trained in an adaptive way, which guaranteed the model can learn the domain-invariant features and perform accurate yield prediction simultaneously. Informative variables including time-series vegetation indices and sequential weather observations were first collected from multiple data sources and aggregated to the county level. Then, we trained the ADANN model with the extracted features and corresponding reported county-level corn yield from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Finally, the trained model was evaluated in four testing years 2016–2019. The U.S. corn belt was used as the study area and counties under study were grouped into two diverse ecological regions. Overall, the experimental results showed that the developed ADANN model had better performance than three other state-of-the-art machine learning models in both local experiments (train and test in the same region) and transfer experiments (train and test in different regions). As the first study using adversarial learning for crop yield prediction, this research demonstrates a novel solution for improving model transferability on crop yield prediction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machinable, high‐conductivity NaSICON through mitigation of humidity effects during solid‐state synthesis

The Na + super ion conductor (NaSICON, Na 1+x Zr 2 Si x P 3-x O 12 ) is a solid electrolyte well-known for fast, selective Na + transport at low temperatures, uniquely enabling sodium-based batteries. Producing high-quality NaSICON from solid-state methods, especially when cost-effective, potentially hygroscopic precursors are used, is not trivial. To understand and eliminate the influence of humidity during processing, a scheme was developed to reproducibly yield a high Na + conductivity (3.75 mS/cm at 25°C, 81.7 mS/cm at 150°C), high density (97%), and machinable NaSICON without the use of binders, sintering aids, or dopants. Controlled humidity studies over 20%–50% RH coupled with thermal, structural, and electrical analysis reveal that calcination temperatures < 1000°C leave NaSICON processing susceptible to water absorption at > 20% RH due to the presence of hygroscopic Na 3 PO 4 and Na 2 CO 3 during shaping, pressing, and sintering. Water absorption results in NaSICON with lower densities, machinability, and Na+ conductivity, due to impaired intergranular Na+ transport. At the other extreme, fully converting precursor to the NaSICON phase at 1230°C before pressing and sintering leads to poor conductivity and density. By calcining at 1000°C, excellent quality NaSICON may be produced under a range of laboratory environments, enabling low-cost production of high-conductivity, machinable NaSICON necessary the ever-growing energy storage market.

NaSICON↗
DOE OSTI2020

Virtualized Logical Qubits: A 2.5D Architecture for Error-Corrected Quantum Computing

Current, near-term quantum devices have shown great progress in the last several years culminating recently with a demonstration of quantum supremacy. In the medium-term, however, quantum machines will need to transition to greater reliability through error correction, likely through promising techniques like surface codes which are well suited for near-term devices with limited qubit connectivity. We discover quantum memory, particularly resonant cavities with transmon qubits arranged in a 2.5D architecture, can efficiently implement surface codes with substantial hardware savings and performance/fidelity gains. Specifically, we virtualize logical qubits by storing them in layers of qubit memories connected to each transmon. Surprisingly, distributing each logical qubit across many memories has a minimal impact on fault tolerance and results in substantially more efficient operations. Our design permits fast transversal application of CNOT operations between logical qubits sharing the same physical address (same set of cavities) which are 6x faster than standard lattice surgery CNOTs. We develop a novel embedding which saves approximately 10x in transmons with another 2x savings from an additional optimization for compactness. Although qubit virtualization pays a 10x penalty in serialization, advantages in the transversal CNOT and in area efficiency result in fault-tolerance and performance comparable to conventional 2D transmon-only architectures. Our simulations show our system can achieve fault tolerance comparable to conventional two-dimensional grids while saving substantial hardware. Furthermore, our architecture can produce magic states at 1.22x the baseline rate given a fixed number of transmon qubits. Here, this is a critical benchmark for future fault-tolerant quantum computers as magic states are essential and machines will spend the majority of their resources continuously producing them. This architecture substantially reduces the hardware requirements for fault-tolerant quantum computing and puts within reach a proof-of-concept experimental demonstration of around 10 logical qubits, requiring only 11 transmons and 9 attached cavities in total.

quantum computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Jensen–Shannon divergence based novel loss functions for Bayesian neural networks

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are state-of-the-art machine learning methods that can naturally regularize and systematically quantify uncertainties using their stochastic parameters. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence-based variational inference used in BNNs suffer from unstable optimization and challenges in approximating light-tailed posteriors due to the unbounded nature of the KL divergence. To resolve these issues, we formulate a novel loss function for BNNs based on a new modification to the generalized Jensen–Shannon (JS) divergence, which is bounded. In addition, we propose a Geometric JS divergence-based loss, which is computationally efficient since it can be evaluated analytically. We found that the JS divergence-based variational inference is intractable, and hence employed a constrained optimization framework to formulate these losses. Our theoretical analysis and empirical experiments on multiple regression and classification data sets suggest that the proposed losses perform better than the KL divergence-based loss, especially when the data sets are noisy or biased. Specifically, there are approximately 5% and 8% improvements in accuracy for a noise-added CIFAR-10 dataset and a regression dataset, respectively. There is about 13% reduction in false negative predictions of a biased histopathology dataset. Additionally, we quantify and compare the uncertainty metrics for the regression and classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development of a Technology Roadmap for Online Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants

The nuclear power industry has recently recognized the potential cost saving that can be achieved from migrating the current manual and labor dependent surveillance and preventive maintenance activities to data-driven online monitoring methods. Since then, several efforts have been launched with various degrees of momentum to tackle specific surveillance or preventive maintenance activities. The light water reactor sustainability program (LWRS) program has anticipated this need and launched an effort that aimed to develop a technology roadmap for the nuclear power industry. Because the roadmap has to be focused towards the user or application’s value, and because nuclear power plants have different process efficiencies and deficiencies, the technology roadmap has to be plant independent. Achieving this objective required optimizing the extent of details described by a technology roadmap. The approach followed is for the roadmap to describe the sequence of activities needed to automate a process or equipment activity, but not describe the sequence of processes or equipment to target. For example, the steps required to migrate the inspection of a pump are plant independent. However, defining that the migration of feed water pumps inspections to online monitoring should be performed before inspections of feed water valves is dependent on multiple plant factors such as the plant requirements, labor work capacity, and process or equipment conditions. The technology roadmap was broken down into six elements, four of which have a sequential path of advancement, while the other two are supporting elements to the sequential elements. The sequential part of the roadmap analyzes data collection, analytics, visualization, and management. For these elements of the technology roadmap, the migration of an activity is defined in three states. The base state is defined as the most primitive, manual, and labor dependent process used by some nuclear power plants. The modern state is defined as the state that can be achieved if the activities are augmented or replaced by current technologies that are commercially available or are soon to be available. The state of the art is defined as using technologies of the future, i.e. concept and technologies that are being researched. The data collection part of the technology roadmap defines three states of every process performed in a nuclear power plant. However, the data analytics part is described based on equipment, because automating an activity performed on one equipment required considering multiple data sources. The visualization and data management elements are process or equipment independent. Visualization describes the means to use human factor science and technologies advancement in presenting the data collected and the data analytics results. The data management targets storage, communication, and computational power need, in addition to data integration and sharing. Since storage, communication, and computational power technologies and path for deployment are known to any information technology organization, this effort targeted the cost of data management. This has a direct impact on the feasibility of the automation effort. The supporting elements analyzes the value of automating the activity and the change challenges to tackle. For the support elements, the roadmap targeted describing activities that need to be performed as part of the roadmap development. The value element of the roadmap describes how to analyze the cost saving and the associated risk. The change management identifies multiple factors to consider such as regulation, cybersecurity, resource availability, supporting infrastructure availability, feasibility (power, fitness, environment tolerance, facilities), and cultural change.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2019

Prediction of Transition-State Energies of Hydrodeoxygenation Reactions on Transition-Metal Surfaces Based on Machine Learning

Computational catalyst discovery involves identification of a meaningful model and suitable descriptors that determine the catalyst properties. We study the impact of combining various descriptors (e.g., reaction energies, metal descriptors, and bond counts) for modeling transition-state energies (TS) based on a database of adsorption and TS energies across transition-metal surfaces for the decarboxylation and decarbonylation of propionic acid, a chemistry characteristic for biomass conversion. Results of different machine learning models for more than 1572 descriptor combinations suggest that there is no statistically significant difference between linear and nonlinear models when using the right combination of reactant energies, metal descriptors, and bond counts. However, linear models are inferior when not including bond count and metal descriptors. In conclusion, when there are missing data for reaction steps on all metals, conventional linear scaling is inferior to linear and nonlinear models with proper choice of descriptors that are surprisingly robust.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Equation of state of boron carbide B 4 ⁢C

We present the results of recent experiments conducted on the Sandia Z machine and a new tabular equation of state for B 4 ⁢C. The equation of state was calibrated to a combination of density functional calculations reported here and fits to preexisting data. It was constructed partly to recover the effects of a shock-driven, polymorphic phase transition of unknown character beginning at particle velocities of just under 3 km/s (shock pressures of 95 GPa). Some of the Z experiments included sound speeds determined by the overtaking rarefaction method, from which we calculate the Grüneisen parameter and compare with previous experiments conducted at the OMEGA laser [Fratanduono et al ., Phys. Rev. B 94 , 184107 (2016)], our own first principles calculations, and another recent tabular equation of state [Zhang et al ., Phys. Rev. E 102 , 053203 (2020)]. We also compare our results with previous static compression, thermophysical, and melt studies, finding mixed consistency. We predict the onset and completion of shock melting at 225 and 265 GPa, respectively, and predict a melt curve that is largely flat to pressures of several hundred GPa.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2007

Systems, Methods and Apparatus for Determining Physical Properties of Fluids

In some embodiments, systems and methods and apparatus are provided through which the equation of state is used to control a process through analyses of one or more properties of a fluid through an interactive modeler that models the equation of state for the fluid in the process based on measured signals and for selectively enabling the modeling of control changes to the process. In some embodiments, a device generates an indication of machine health based on variations on the equation of state for a fluid in a machine. In some embodiments, one or more properties for the fluid from at least one unmeasured machine parameter in the interactive modeler are determined for the machine at various operating states. In some embodiments, a difference between an expected one or more properties of the fluid beyond a set point indicates the health of the machine

Butas, John P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Extreme Weather Impacts on Utility-scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance in the United States

The global energy system is undergoing significant changes, including a shift in energy generating technologies to more renewable energy sources. However, the dependence of renewable energy sources on local environmental conditions could also increase disruptions in service through exposures to compound, extreme weather events. By fusing three diverse datasets (operations and maintenance tickets, weather data, and production data), this analysis presents a novel methodology to identify and evaluate performance impacts arising from extreme weather events across diverse geographical regions. Text analysis of maintenance tickets identified snow, hurricanes, and storms as the leading extreme weather events affecting photovoltaic plants in the United States. Statistical techniques and machine learning were then implemented to identify the magnitude and variability of these extreme weather impacts on site performance. Impacts varied between event and non-event days, with snow events causing the greatest reductions in performance (54.5%), followed by hurricanes (12.6%) and storms (1.1%). Machine learning analysis identified key features in determining if a day is categorized as low performing, such as low irradiance, geographic location, weather features, and site size. The analysis improves our understanding of compound, extreme weather event impacts on photovoltaic systems, which can inform planning activities, especially as the industry continues to expand into new geographic and climatic regions around the world.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Proper orthogonal descriptors for efficient and accurate interatomic potentials

Here, we present the proper orthogonal descriptors for efficient and accuracy representation of the potential energy surface. The potential energy surface is represented as a many-body expansion of parametrized potentials in which the potentials are functions of atom positions and parameters. The proper orthogonal decomposition is employed to decompose the parametrized potentials into a set of proper orthogonal descriptors (PODs). Because of the rapid convergence of the proper orthogonal decomposition, relevant snapshots can be sampled exhaustively to represent the atomic neighborhood environment accurately with a small number of descriptors. The proper orthogonal descriptors are used to develop interatomic potentials by using a linear expansion of the descriptors and determining the expansion coefficients from a weighted least-squares regression against a density functional theory (DFT) training set. We present a comprehensive evaluation of the POD potentials on previously published DFT data sets comprising Li, Mo, Cu, Ni, Si, Ge, and Ta elements. The data sets represent a diverse pool of metals, transition metals, and semiconductors. The accuracy of the POD potentials are comparable to that of state-of-the-art machine learning potentials such as the spectral neighbor analysis potential (SNAP) and the atomic cluster expansion (ACE).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

PythonFOAM: In-situ data analyses with OpenFOAM and Python

Here, we outline the development of a general-purpose Python-based data analysis tool for OpenFOAM. Our implementation relies on the construction of OpenFOAM applications that have bindings to data analysis libraries in Python. Double precision data in OpenFOAM is cast to a NumPy array using the NumPy C-API and Python modules may then be used for arbitrary data analysis and manipulation on flow-field information. We highlight how the proposed wrapper may be used for an in-situ online singular value decomposition (SVD) implemented in Python and accessed from the OpenFOAM solver PimpleFOAM. Here, 'in-situ' refers to a programming paradigm that allows for a concurrent computation of the data analysis on the same computational resources utilized for the partial differential equation solver. In addition, to demonstrate parallel deployments, we deploy a distributed SVD, which collects snapshot data across the ranks of a distributed simulation to compute the global left singular vectors. Crucially, both OpenFOAM and Python share the same message passing interface (MPI) communicator for this deployment which allows Python objects and functions to exchange NumPy arrays across ranks. Subsequently, we provide scaling assessments of this distributed SVD on multiple nodes of Intel Broadwell and KNL architectures for canonical test cases such as the large eddy simulations of a backward facing step and a channel flow at friction Reynolds number of 395. Finally, we demonstrate the deployment of a deep neural network for compressing the flow-field information using an autoencoder to demonstrate an ability to use state-of-the-art machine learning tools in the Python ecosystem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feature engineering for machine learning enabled early prediction of battery lifetime

Accurate battery lifetime estimates enable accelerated design of novel battery materials and determination of optimal use protocols for longevity in deployments. Unfortunately, traditional battery testing may take years to reach thousands of cycles. Recent studies have shown that machine learning (ML) tools can predict lithium-ion battery lifetimes from 100 or fewer preliminary cycles, representing only a few weeks of cycling. Until now, conclusions about the efficacy and broad applicability of these predictions across a variety of cathode chemistries have been limited by available experimental information. In this work, we leverage a battery cycling dataset representing six cathode chemistries (NMC111, NMC532, NMC622, NMC811, HE5050, and 5Vspinel), multiple electrolyte/anode compositions, and 300 total carefully prepared pouch batteries to explore feature selection and battery chemistry's role in ML battery lifetime predictions. Here, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 78 cycles in prediction was seen for a chemistry-spanning test set from 100 preliminary cycles. Furthermore, an MAE of 103 cycles was seen when using only the first cycle. This study represents an in-depth investigation of strategies for feature selection for battery lifetime prediction, ML models' generalization across multiple battery chemistries, and predictions beyond the training set in the chemical space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Convolutional Neural Network Model for Battery Capacity Fade Curve Prediction using Early Life Data

Herein, early prediction of battery performance degradation trends can facilitate research of new materials and cell designs, rapid deployment of batteries in real-world applications, timely replacement of batteries in critical applications, and even the secondary use market. In this study, we design a convolutional neural network model to predict the entire battery capacity fade curve - a critical indicator of battery performance degradation - using first 100 cycles of data (~ three weeks of testing). We use the discharge voltage-capacity curves as input to the model and automate the feature extraction process through the convolutional layers of the network. Our approach can predict the per cycle capacity fade rate and rollover cycle (knee point) in the capacity fade curve, which indicate the onset of rapid capacity decay. On the publicly available graphite/LiFePO 4 battery dataset, optimized networks predict the capacity fade curves, rollover cycle, and end of life with 3.7% (worst-case), 19%, and 17% mean absolute percentage errors, respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel probabilistic regression model for electrical peak demand estimate of commercial and manufacturing buildings

Due to the high cost of electricity in commercial and industrial sectors, demand forecast models have gained increasing attention. However, there are two unresolved issues: (1) Models are not adaptable when exposed to previously unknown data (2) The value of regression methods vs. state-of-the-art machine learning models has not been made apparent before. This study’s goal is to develop probabilistic demand estimation models. Herein, we propose a probabilistic Bayesian regression framework that can not only estimate future demands with high accuracy but also be updated once new information is available. By applying the proposed algorithm to two real-world case studies (commercial and manufacturing), we show a 40.3% and 30.8% improvement in terms of mean absolute error for the two cases. Moreover, the proposed technique outperforms powerful machine learning approaches, including support vector machine by 10.39%, random forest by 6.17%, and multilayer perceptron by 9.14% in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovery of Energy Storage Molecular Materials Using Quantum Chemistry-Guided Multiobjective Bayesian Optimization

Redox flow batteries (RFBs) are a promising technology for stationary energy storage applications due to their flexible design, scalability, and low cost. In RFBs, energy is carried in flowable redoxactive materials (redoxmers) which are stored externally and pumped to the cell during operation. Further improvements in the energy density of RFBs necessitates redoxmer designs with wider redox potential windows and higher solubility. Additionally, designing redoxmers with a fluorescence-enabled self-reporting functionality allows monitoring of the state of health of RFBs. To accelerate the discovery of redoxmers with desired properties, state-of-the- art machine learning ( ML) methods, such as multiobjective Bayesian optimization (MBO), are useful. Here, we first employed density functional theory calculations to generate a database of reduction potentials, solvation free energies, and absorption wavelengths for 1400 redoxmer molecules based on a 2,1,3-benzothiadiazole (BzNSN) core structure. From the computed properties, we identified 22 Pareto-optimal molecules that represent best trade-off among all of the desired properties. We further utilized these data to develop and benchmark an MBO approach to identify candidates quickly and efficiently with multiple targeted properties. With MBO, optimal candidates from the 1400-molecule data set can be identified at least 15 times more efficiently compared to the brute force or random selection approach. Importantly, we utilized this approach for discovering promising redoxmers from an unseen database of 1 million BzNSN-based molecules, where we discovered 16 new Pareto-optimal molecules with significant improvements in properties over the initial 1400 molecules. Furthermore, we anticipate that this active learning technique is general and can be utilized for the discovery of any class of functional materials that satisfies multiple desired property criteria.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗