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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Statistics of Wide Pre-main-sequence Binaries in the Orion OB1 Association

Statistics of low-mass pre-main-sequence binaries in the Orion OB1 association with separations ranging from 0."6 to 20" (220 to 7400 au at 370 pc) are studied using images from the VISTA Orion mini survey and astrometry from Gaia. The input sample based on the CVSO catalog contains 1137 stars of K and M spectral types (masses between 0.3 and 0.9 M ⊙ ), 1021 of which are considered to be association members. There are 135 physical binary companions to these stars with mass ratios above ~0.13. The average companion fraction is 0.09 ± 0.01 over 1.2 decades in separation, slightly less than, but still consistent with, the field. We found a difference between the Ori OB1a and OB1b groups, the latter being richer in binaries by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3. No overall dependence of the wide-binary frequency on the observed underlying stellar density is found, although in the Ori OB1a off-cloud population, these binaries seem to avoid dense clusters. The multiplicity rates in Ori OB1 and in sparse regions like Taurus differ significantly, hinting that binaries in the field may originate from a mixture of diverse populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Characterizing the Influence of Fracture Density on Network Scale Transport

The topology of natural fracture networks is inherently linked to the structure of the fluid velocity field and transport therein. Here we study the impact of network density on flow and transport behaviors. We stochastically generate fracture networks of varying density and simulate flow and transport with a discrete fracture network model, which fully resolves network topology at the fracture scale. We study conservative solute trajectories with Lagrangian particle tracking and find that as fracture density decreases, solute channelization to large local fractures increases, thereby reducing plume spreading. Furthermore, in sparse networks mean particle travel distance increases and local network features, such as velocity zones where flow is counter to the primary pressure gradient, become increasingly important for transport. As the network density increases, network statistics homogenize and such local features have a reduced impact. We quantify local topological influence on transport behavior with an effective tortuosity parameter, which measures the ratio of total advective distance to linear distance at the fracture scale; large tortuosity values are correlated to slow-velocity regions. Additionally, these large tortuosity, slow-velocity regions delay downstream transport and enhance tailing on particle breakthrough curves. Finally, we predict transport with an upscaled, Bernoulli spatial Markov random walk model and parameterize local topological influences with a novel tortuosity parameter. Furthermore, Bernoulli model predictions improve when sampling from a tortuosity distribution, as opposed to a fixed value as has previously been done, suggesting that local network topological features must be carefully considered in upscaled modeling efforts of fracture network systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Inspection design using 2D phased array, TFM and cueMAP software

A simulation suite, cueMAP, has been developed to facilitate the design of inspection processes and sparse 2D array configurations. At the core of cueMAP is a Total Focusing Method (TFM) imaging algorithm that enables computer assisted design of ultrasonic inspection scenarios, including the design of bespoke array configurations to match the inspection criteria. This in-house developed TFM code allows for interactive evaluation of image quality indicators of ultrasonic imaging performance when utilizing a 2D phased array working in FMC/TFM mode. The cueMAP software uses a series of TFM images to build a map of resolution, contrast and sensitivity of imaging performance of a simulated reflector, swept across the inspection volume. The software takes into account probe properties, wedge or water standoff, and effects of specimen curvature. In the validation process of this new software package, two 2D arrays have been evaluated on 304n stainless steel samples, typical of the primary circuit in nuclear plants. Thick section samples have been inspected using a 1MHz 2D matrix array. Due to the processing efficiency of the software, the data collected from these array configurations has been used to investigate the influence sub-aperture operation on inspection performance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Improving signal strength in serial crystallography with DIALS geometry refinement

The DIALS diffraction-modeling software package has been applied to serial crystallography data. Diffraction modeling is an exercise in determining the experimental parameters, such as incident beam wavelength, crystal unit cell and orientation, and detector geometry, that are most consistent with the observed positions of Bragg spots. These parameters can be refined by nonlinear least-squares fitting. In previous work, it has been challenging to refine both the positions of the sensors (metrology) on multipanel imaging detectors such as the CSPAD and the orientations of all of the crystals studied. Since the optimal models for metrology and crystal orientation are interdependent, alternate cycles of panel refinement and crystal refinement have been required. To simplify the process, a sparse linear algebra technique for solving the normal equations was implemented, allowing the detector panels to be refined simultaneously against the diffraction from thousands of crystals with excellent computational performance. Separately, it is shown how to refine the metrology of a second CSPAD detector, positioned at a distance of 2.5 m from the crystal, used for recording low-angle reflections. With the ability to jointly refine the detector position against the ensemble of all crystals used for structure determination, it is shown that ensemble refinement greatly reduces the apparent nonisomorphism that is often observed in the unit-cell distributions from still-shot serial crystallography. In addition, it is shown that batching the images by timestamp and re-refining the detector position can realistically model small, time-dependent variations in detector position relative to the sample, and thereby improve the integrated structure-factor intensity signal and heavy-atom anomalous peak heights.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

UQ Toolkit v. 3.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterization and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. This library provides Bayesian inference tools to infer uncertain model parameters, Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, methods for constructing Karhunen-Loève representations of stochastic processes, and global sensitivity analysis tools used to compute Sobol indices in order to characterize the importance of uncertain inputs or the interactions between them. The basis for many of these methods relies on representing random variables with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). This library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For the propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Sargsyan, Khachik↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE RUNAWAYS AND ISOLATED O-TYPE STAR SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY OF THE SMC (RIOTS4)

We present the Runaways and Isolated O-Type Star Spectroscopic Survey of the SMC (RIOTS4), a spatially complete survey of uniformly selected field OB stars that covers the entire star-forming body of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). Using the IMACS (Inamori-Magellan Areal Camera and Spectrograph) multislit spectrograph and MIKE (Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle) echelle spectrograph on the Magellan telescopes, we obtained spectra of 374 early-type field stars that are at least 28 pc from any other OB candidates. We also obtained spectra of an additional 23 field stars in the SMC bar identified from slightly different photometric criteria. Here, we present the observational catalog of stars in the RIOTS4 survey, including spectral classifications and radial velocities. For three multi-slit fields covering 8% of our sample, we carried out monitoring observations over 9–16 epochs to study binarity, finding a spectroscopic, massive binary frequency of at least ∼60% in this subsample. Classical Oe/Be stars represent a large fraction of RIOTS4 (42%), occurring at much higher frequency than in the Galaxy, consistent with expectation at low metallicity. RIOTS4 confirmed a steep upper initial mass function in the field, apparently caused by the inability of the most massive stars to form in the smallest clusters. Our survey also yields evidence for in situ field OB star formation, and properties of field emission-line star populations, including sgB[e] stars and classical Oe/Be stars. We also discuss the radial velocity distribution and its relation to SMC kinematics and runaway stars. RIOTS4 presents a first quantitative characterization of field OB stars in an external galaxy, including the contributions of sparse, but normal, star formation; runaway stars; and candidate isolated star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Construction of ground-state preserving sparse lattice models for predictive materials simulations

First-principles based cluster expansion models are the dominant approach in ab initio thermodynamics of crystalline mixtures enabling the prediction of phase diagrams and novel ground states. However, despite recent advances, the construction of accurate models still requires a careful and time-consuming manual parameter tuning process for ground-state preservation, since this property is not guaranteed by default. In this paper, we present a systematic and mathematically sound method to obtain cluster expansion models that are guaranteed to preserve the ground states of their reference data. The method builds on the recently introduced compressive sensing paradigm for cluster expansion and employs quadratic programming to impose constraints on the model parameters. The robustness of our methodology is illustrated for two lithium transition metal oxides with relevance for Li-ion battery cathodes, i.e., Li 2x Fe 2(1-x) O 2 and Li 2x Ti 2(1-x) O 2 , for which the construction of cluster expansion models with compressive sensing alone has proven to be challenging. We demonstrate that our method not only guarantees ground-state preservation on the set of reference structures used for the model construction, but also show that out-of-sample ground-state preservation up to relatively large supercell size is achievable through a rapidly converging iterative refinement. This method provides a general tool for building robust, compressed and constrained physical models with predictive power.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Probabilistic Autoencoder for Type Ia Supernova Spectral Time Series

We construct a physically parameterized probabilistic autoencoder (PAE) to learn the intrinsic diversity of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from a sparse set of spectral time series. The PAE is a two-stage generative model, composed of an autoencoder that is interpreted probabilistically after training using a normalizing flow. We demonstrate that the PAE learns a low-dimensional latent space that captures the nonlinear range of features that exists within the population and can accurately model the spectral evolution of SNe Ia across the full range of wavelength and observation times directly from the data. By introducing a correlation penalty term and multistage training setup alongside our physically parameterized network, we show that intrinsic and extrinsic modes of variability can be separated during training, removing the need for the additional models to perform magnitude standardization. We then use our PAE in a number of downstream tasks on SNe Ia for increasingly precise cosmological analyses, including the automatic detection of SN outliers, the generation of samples consistent with the data distribution, and solving the inverse problem in the presence of noisy and incomplete data to constrain cosmological distance measurements. We find that the optimal number of intrinsic model parameters appears to be three, in line with previous studies, and show that we can standardize our test sample of SNe Ia with an rms of 0.091 ± 0.010 mag, which corresponds to 0.074 ± 0.010 mag if peculiar velocity contributions are removed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Basalt Reactivity Variability with Reservoir Depth in Supercritical CO2 and Aqueous Phases

Long term storage of CO{sub 2} in geologic formations is currently considered the most attractive option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while continuing to utilize fossil fuels for energy production. Injected CO{sub 2} is expected to reside as a buoyant water-saturated supercritical fluid in contact with reservoir rock, the caprock system, and related formation waters. As was reported for the first time at the GHGT-9 conference, experiments with basalts demonstrated surprisingly rapid carbonate mineral formation occurring with samples suspended in the scCO{sub 2} phase. Those experiments were limited to a few temperatures and CO{sub 2} pressures representing relatively shallow (1 km) reservoir depths. Because continental flood basalts can extend to depths of 5 km or more, in this paper we extend the earlier results across a pressure-temperature range representative of these greater depths. Different basalt samples, including well cuttings from the borehole used in a pilot-scale basalt sequestration project (Eastern Washington, U.S.) and core samples from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), were exposed to aqueous solutions in equilibrium with scCO{sub 2} and water-rich scCO{sub 2} at six different pressures and temperatures for select periods of time (30 to 180 days). Conditions corresponding to a shallow injection of CO{sub 2} (7.4 MPa, 34 C) indicate limited reactivity with basalt; surface carbonate precipitates were not easily identified on post-reacted basalt grains. Basalts exposed under identical times appeared increasingly more reacted with simulated depths. Tests, conducted at higher pressures (12.0 MPa) and temperatures (55 C), reveal a wide variety of surface precipitates forming in both fluid phases. Under shallow conditions tiny clusters of aragonite needles began forming in the wet scCO{sub 2} fluid, whereas in the CO{sub 2} saturated water, cation substituted calcite developed thin radiating coatings. Although these types of coatings were sparse, conditions corresponding to deeper depths showed increasing carbonate precipitation. Basalts exposed to aqueous dissolved CO{sub 2} (25.5 MPa, 116 C) for 30 days were coated in tiny nodules of precipitate ({approx}100 {micro}m in diameter) that were identified by micro x-ray diffraction as ankerite, [Ca(Fe,Mg)(CO{sub 3}){sub 2}], a variety of dolomite commonly associated with hydrothermal and metamorphic environments. Surface characterization by SEM revealed well-developed round nodules composed of discrete individual platelets. In contrast, reaction products forming on the basalt in the corresponding wet scCO{sub 2} phase had completely different morphology, appearing in an optical microscope as a surface coating instead of discrete nodules. Examination by SEM revealed layers of discrete platelets forming a cover over a few discrete nodules. Longer test durations (180 days) produced severe iron staining along with minerals structures similar to rhodochrosite and kutnohorite. These preliminary experiments show strong evidence of the faster rate of increase in mineralization reactions taking place in the scCO{sub 2} phase, transformation reactions that are just beginning to be explored in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-temperature structure, elasticity, and thermal expansion of ε-ZrH 1.8

Zirconium hydride is a promising candidate material for nuclear microreactor applications as a solid-state moderator component, owing to its favorable neutronics properties and good thermal stability over other metal hydrides. Here, in the present work, the crystal structure, thermal expansion, and elastic properties of the hydrogen-rich ε phase hydride were measured at elevated temperatures in the range 300–900 K. Samples were prepared by direct hydriding Zircaloy-4 metal – a nuclear-grade zirconium alloy. Room-temperature lattice parameters agree well with those reported from literature for unalloyed zirconium hydride and fall within an observed quadratic H-content dependence. The coefficients of thermal expansion, determined from lattice expansion and dilatometry, agree well within our work but were about 30 % lower than those reported by others for unalloyed hydrides. Density functional theory-based molecular dynamics simulations were used to compare with thermal expansion and elasticity measurements. Results showed lattice parameter temperature dependence and slope of thermal expansion align with those from measurements. Based on diffraction scans at select temperatures, ε phase remained stable in air up to at least 770 K. Likewise, dilatometry showed smooth thermal expansion up to the thermal decomposition temperature around 950 K. The precise decomposition temperature was not determined via diffraction due to sparse scanning. The complete elastic property measurements were gathered for ε-phase Ziracloy-4 hydride for the first time. Young's modulus was lower compared to the metal and δ hydride phases. High-temperature elasticity measurements were limited to <350 K due to acoustic dissipation effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Fundamental hydrogen interactions with beryllium: a magnetic fusion perspective

Increasingly, basic models such as density functional theory and molecular dynamics are being used to simulate different aspects of hydrogen recycling from plasma facing materials. These models provide valuable insight into hydrogen diffusion, trapping, and recombination from surfaces, but their validation relies on knowledge of the detailed behavior of hydrogen at an atomic scale. Despite being the first wall material for ITER, basic single crystal beryllium surfaces have been studied only sparsely from an experimental standpoint. In prior cases researchers used electron spectroscopy to examine surface reconstruction or adsorption kinetics during exposure to a hydrogen atmosphere. While valuable, these approaches lack the ability to directly detect the positioning of hydrogen on the surface. Ion beam techniques, such as low energy ion scattering (LEIS) and direct recoil spectroscopy (DRS), are two of the only experimental approaches capable of providing this information. In this study, we applied both LEIS and DRS to examine how hydrogen binds to the Be(0001) surface. Our measurements were performed using an angle-resolved ion energy spectrometer (ARIES) to probe the surface with low energy ions (500 eV - 3 keV He + and Ne + ). We were able to obtain a 'scattering maps' of the crystal surface, providing insight on how low energy ions are focused along open surface channels. Once we completed a characterization of the clean surface, we dosed the sample with atomic hydrogen using a heated tungsten capillary. A distinct signal associated with adsorbed hydrogen emerged that was consistent with hydrogen residing between atom rows. To aid in the interpretation of the experimental results, we developed a computational model to simulate ion scattering at grazing incidence. For this purpose, we incorporated a simplified surface model into the Kalypso molecular dynamics code. This approach allowed us to understand how the incident ions interacted with the surface hydrogen, providing confirmation of the preferred binding site.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Where did the tumor start? An inverse solver with sparse localization for tumor growth models

In this work, we present a numerical scheme for solving an inverse problem for parameter estimation in tumor growth models for glioblastomas, a form of aggressive primary brain tumor. The growth model is a reaction–diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) for the tumor concentration. We use a PDE-constrained optimization formulation for the inverse problem. The unknown parameters are the reaction coefficient (proliferation), the diffusion coefficient (infiltration), and the initial condition field for the tumor PDE. Segmentation of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans drive the inverse problem where segmented tumor regions serve as partial observations of the tumor concentration. Like most cases in clinical practice, we use data from a single time snapshot. Moreover, the precise time relative to the initiation of the tumor is unknown, which poses an additional difficulty for inversion. We perform a frozen-coefficient spectral analysis and show that the inverse problem is severely ill-posed. We introduce a biophysically motivated regularization on the structure and magnitude of the tumor initial condition. In particular, we assume that the tumor starts at a few locations (enforced with a sparsity constraint on the initial condition of the tumor) and that the initial condition magnitude in the maximum norm is equal to one. We solve the resulting optimization problem using an inexact quasi-Newton method combined with a compressive sampling algorithm for the sparsity constraint. Our implementation uses PETSc and AccFFT libraries. We conduct numerical experiments on synthetic and clinical images to highlight the improved performance of our solver over a previously existing solver that uses standard two-norm regularization for the calibration parameters. The existing solver is unable to localize the initial condition. Our new solver can localize the initial condition and recover infiltration and proliferation. In clinical datasets (for which the ground truth is unknown), our solver results in qualitatively different solutions compared to the two-norm regularized solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of Washington State Prospects: Final Report

The Washington State Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis overcomes the exploration challenges posed by dense vegetation, glacial deposits, and extreme precipitation. The geothermal play-fairways we target are locations where heat, permeability, and saturated porosity are present in sufficient volume to provide adequate heat exchange at depths accessible by modern drilling technology. The three study areas lie along the Cascade Range magmatic arc and are near Mount Baker, Mount St. Helens, and the Wind River Valley. The seven-year project is divided into three phases. In Phase 1 we build on a previous statewide assessment of geothermal resources and develop an initial modeling approach. The results are a series of favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps for three targeted study areas. Based on these initial results, we collect new geologic and geophysical data to further refine our modeling and reduce exploration uncertainty in Phase 2. We improve the modeling method to handle the new data and update the favorability, uncertainty, and risk maps. We also update the conceptual geothermal resource models. In Phase 3 we validate our modeling approach by drilling two temperature-gradient holes and collecting and analyzing core, image logs, and new geochemistry. Our modeling approach improves on an earlier statewide method through a more-rigorous and detailed assessment of heat and permeability. Permeability potential is assessed through geomechanical modeling of the deformation that can generate and maintain reservoir porosity and permeability. Metrics to inform heat potential include temperature-gradient wells, which are sparse in Washington; proximity of Quaternary volcanic vents and young intrusive rock; spring temperature; and reservoir temperature inferred from geothermometry. We weight the individual components using an expert-guided approach known as the Analytical Hierarchy Process. During Phase 2 we also develop a fluid-filled fracture model, and an infrastructure model that helps to delineate areas which are more favorable for geothermal development based on proximity to transmission lines, elevation, land ownership and use restrictions, and availability of process water. New geologic and geophysical data is collected during Phase 2 in each of our three main study areas. At Mount Baker and north of Mount St. Helens we conduct 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping and lidar analysis to better constrain the location and character of surface faults; detailed mapping in the Wind River Valley was completed just prior to the start of this project. Ages of intrusive rocks are determined with 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronology, though all of our samples are Miocene or older. We collect ground based gravity observations (a total of 1,580 new stations) in all of our study areas and ground-based magnetic lines (a total of 93 km) at Mount Baker. These data are combined with existing gravity and aeromagnetic data and used to constrain fault locations and geometry. Two to three cross sections are constructed at each study area using the mapped surface geology and forward-modeling of the gravity and magnetic data; these cross sections form the basis for our updated conceptual models. We collect magnetotelluric surveys at Mount Baker and Mount St. Helens and these data are inverted to form a resistivity model from the surface to about 10 km depth; each model shows conductive zones that can be interpreted as upwelling geothermal fluids. At Mount St. Helens we deploy a passive seismic array and use the newly detected events to refine the location of the Saint Helens seismic zone. We also employ ambient-noise tomography to develop a detailed seismic-velocity model for the study area and use this model to help constrain our cross sections and conceptual model. Based on the new data collected during Phase 2—and our updated models—we develop a campaign of temperature-gradient holes and core analysis to validate our modeling in Phase 3. Drill hole MB76-31 is located near Little Park Creek, 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker, and is 1,471 ft deep. About 410 ft of core from the lower portion of the hole—and image logs from ~175 ft below ground surface to the bottom—are collected and analyzed. Water samples are collected and processed for geothermometry. Drill hole MSH17-24 is located along upper Schultz Creek, 16 km north-northeast of Mount St. Helens and has core from 470 ft to the bottom at 1,053 ft. We did not collect image logs due to borehole stability concerns, but water samples are collected and analyzed for geothermometry. Repeat temperature-gradient measurements are made at both sites and thermal conductivity is measured from core samples. At MB76-31, the equilibrated temperature gradient of 64°C/km and calculated heat flow of 141–159 mW/m 2 is more than twice the regional average. Detailed mapping and analysis of the core, coupled with correlation to the image logs, indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions of high permeability. Because the site has high favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. At site MSH17-24, the equilibrated temperature gradient of ~15°C/km and calculated heat flow of 41–43 mW/m 2 are similar to regional. Geochemical analysis of the water samples indicates a meteoric source without any geothermal component. Detailed outcrop-based mapping of fault exposures near the drill site and analysis of image logs from nearby boreholes indicates a history of permeability generation consistent with our predictions. Because the site has low favorability in the Phase 2 model, we consider the results a positive validation of the modeling. Together, the two sites provide a reasonably positive validation of the Phase 2 modeling and should encourage future use of this modeling approach.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Embedded ensemble propagation for improving performance, portability, and scalability of uncertainty quantification on emerging computational architectures

In this study, quantifying simulation uncertainties is a critical component of rigorous predictive simulation. A key component of this is forward propagation of uncertainties in simulation input data to output quantities of interest. Typical approaches involve repeated sampling of the simulation over the uncertain input data, and can require numerous samples when accurately propagating uncertainties from large numbers of sources. Often simulation processes from sample to sample are similar and much of the data generated from each sample evaluation could be reused. We explore a new method for implementing sampling methods that simultaneously propagates groups of samples together in an embedded fashion, which we call embedded ensemble propagation. We show how this approach takes advantage of properties of modern computer architectures to improve performance by enabling reuse between samples, reducing memory bandwidth requirements, improving memory access patterns, improving opportunities for fine-grained parallelization, and reducing communication costs. We describe a software technique for implementing embedded ensemble propagation based on the use of C++ templates and describe its integration with various scientific computing libraries within Trilinos. We demonstrate improved performance, portability and scalability for the approach applied to the simulation of partial differential equations on a variety of CPU, GPU, and accelerator architectures, including up to 131,072 cores on a Cray XK7 (Titan).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-F-BRF-02: Automated Lung Segmentation Method Using Atlas-Based Sparse Shape Composition with a Shape Constrained Deformable Model

Purpose: To develop an automated lung segmentation method, which combines the atlas-based sparse shape composition with a shape constrained deformable model in thoracic CT for patients with compromised lung volumes. Methods: Ten thoracic computed tomography scans for patients with large lung tumors were collected and reference lung ROIs in each scan was manually segmented to assess the performance of the method. We propose an automated and robust framework for lung tissue segmentation by using single statistical atlas registration to initialize a robust deformable model in order to perform fine segmentation that includes compromised lung tissue. First, a statistical image atlas with sparse shape composition is constructed and employed to obtain an approximate estimation of lung volume. Next, a robust deformable model with shape prior is initialized from this estimation. Energy terms from ROI edge potential and interior ROI region based potential as well as the initial ROI are combined in this model for accurate and robust segmentation. Results: The proposed segmentation method is applied to segment right lung on three CT scans. The quantitative results of our segmentation method achieved mean dice score of (0.92–0.95), mean accuracy of (0.97,0.98), and mean relative error of (0.10,0.16) with 95% CI. The quantitative results of previously published RASM segmentation method achieved mean dice score of (0.74,0.96), mean accuracy of (0.66,0.98), and mean relative error of (0.04, 0.38) with 95% CI. The qualitative and quantitative comparisons show that our proposed method can achieve better segmentation accuracy with less variance compared with a robust active shape model method. Conclusion: The atlas-based segmentation approach achieved relatively high accuracy with less variance compared to RASM in the sample dataset and the proposed method will be useful in image analysis applications for lung nodule or lung cancer diagnosis and radiotherapy assessment in thoracic computed tomography.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗