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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods

The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.

Yihua Zheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

VPP Participation Models: What is the Objective?

Virtual power plants (VPPs) can provide grid services by aggregating and controlling many distributed energy resources. However, their design, operation, level of participation, and outcomes depend on the regulatory and market environments they operate in, DER owner preferences, grid service value, and technical capabilities (e.g., communications, forecasting, controls, user interfaces). Although VPPs are inherently complex, they could enable high shares of behind-the-meter solar plus storage and reduce the cost of electrifying, e.g., personal vehicles and space heating.

demand response↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Energetic Particles in the Inner Heliosphere: Status and Open Questions

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to both solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and they present energy spectra that span from a few keV up to several GeV. A wealth of observations from widely distributed spacecraft have revealed that SEPs fill very broad regions of the heliosphere, often all around the Sun. High energy SEPs can sometimes be energetic enough to penetrate all the way down to the surface of the Earth and thus be recorded on the ground as ground level enhancements (GLEs). The conditions of the radiation environment are currently unpredictable due to an as-yet incomplete understanding of solar eruptions and their corresponding relation to SEP events. This is because the complex nature and the interplay of the injection, acceleration and transport processes undergone by the SEPs in the solar corona and the interplanetary space prevent us from establishing an accurate understanding (based on observations and modelling). In this work, we review the current status of knowledge on SEPs, focusing on GLEs and multi-spacecraft events. We extensively discuss the forecasting and nowcasting efforts of SEPs, dividing these into three categories. Finally, we report on the current open questions and the possible direction of future research efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Solar eruptions and their space weather impact’.

Anastasiadis, Anastasios↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Optimization of Capital Cost and Expected O&M

Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies can utilize heat from concentrated sunlight from a field of tracking mirrors to generate electricity, reform fuel, provide process heat, or augment fossil plant heat sources. Electricity-generating power tower systems focus light from thousands of independent heliostats onto a thermal receiver, which uses the focused light to warm a heat transfer fluid (HTF), typically, a molten nitrate salt. The HTF is then sent to a power generation cycle or diverted into thermal energy storage (TES) for later use. Thermal storage is – in principle – a straightforward proposition. However, optimal utilization of a TES resource is complex and multi-faceted: thermal energy may be dispatched to produce electricity immediately upon first availability, or thermal energy may be reserved for next-day peak periods at risk of filling storage and dumping energy, or a portion of the thermal energy can be reserved to maintain equipment temperatures, reducing power cycle startup time, etc. Many possible dispatch permutations variously emphasize producing peak power, operating through transients, expediting daily startup, etc. The best operation strategy can change day-to-day throughout the year, depending on the weather and market pricing forecasts. The project we describe in this report develops a software package that allows users to explore design optimization, operations decisions, and performance characterization of concentrating solar power tower plants. Users interface with the tool through a scripting language, and results are reported in time series tables, plots, runtime logs, and design outputs. Users choose from a list of variables such as tower height, solar multiple, design-point irradiance, thermal storage size, etc., and specify information about the system using a list of parameters. The software can then optimize the specified variables to reduce the cost of energy produced by the system while meeting certain production requirements, accounting for uncertain weather and electricity price forecasts, and correcting for equipment failures or repair time. The software we develop is the first comprehensive design tool of its kind to incorporate all of these aspects while being deployed as open source.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Table-Driven Control Method to Meet Continuous, Near-Real-Time Observation Requirements for the Solar X-Ray Imager

The design of the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) presents an unusual scenario for controlling the observing sequences. The SXI is an operational instrument, designed not primarily for scientific research, but for providing "operational" data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to forecast the near-term space weather. To this end, a sequence of images selected to cover the full dynamic range of the sun will be executed routinely. As the dynamics of the sun have differing temporal cadences, the frequency of various images will differ. These images must be routinely received at the forecast center in near real-time, 24-hours a day, with a minimum of interruptions. While these requirements clearly lead to a 'routine patrol' of images, the parameters for each do not form a static set. The dynamics of the sun will change with the I 1-year solar cycle. The performance of the imaging will vary with on-orbit conditions and time. And while the SXI is not intended as a research instrument, forecasting techniques may change with time, which in turn will further alter the imaging sequences. An additional complication is the highly restricted commanding window, and a very slow commanding rate. To fulfill these requirements, the SXI was designed to utilize a table-driven approach. Sequences are defined using structured loops, with nested repetitions and delays. These sequences reference combinations of imaging parameters which in turn reference tables of parameters than can be loaded by ground commands. Multiple sequences can be built and stored in preparation for execution when determined appropriate by the NOAA forecasters. The result is an approach that can be used to provide a flexible, yet autonomous SXI capable of meeting both arbitrary forecasting requirements, and operating within the commanding constraints.

Wallace, Shawn↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2007

Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current

A computer program implements a mathematical model of the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas resulting from interactions between the solar wind and the Earth s magnetic field, for the purpose of predicting fluxes of energetic electrons (10 keV to 5 MeV) and protons (10 keV to 1 MeV), which are hazardous to humans and spacecraft. Given solar-wind and interplanetary-magnetic-field data as inputs, the program solves the convection-diffusion equations of plasma distribution functions in the range of 2 to 10 Earth radii. Phenomena represented in the model include particle drifts resulting from the gradient and curvature of the magnetic field; electric fields associated with the rotation of the Earth, convection, and temporal variation of the magnetic field; and losses along particle-drift paths. The model can readily accommodate new magnetic- and electric-field submodels and new information regarding physical processes that drive the radiation-belt and ring-current plasmas. Despite the complexity of the model, the program can be run in real time on ordinary computers. At present, the program can calculate present electron and proton fluxes; after further development, it should be able to predict the fluxes 24 hours in advance

Fok, Mei-Ching↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clear-Sky Probability for the 2023 Annular Solar Eclipse and the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse Using the NREL National Solar Radiation Database

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and collaborators have created a clear-sky probability analysis to help guide viewers to the 2023 annular solar eclipse and the 2024 total solar eclipse. Using cloud and solar data from the NREL National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the analysis provides cloudless-sky probabilities specific to the date, time, and location of each eclipse with a 4-km resolution. Though not intended to be an eclipse weather forecast, the detailed maps can help guide eclipse enthusiasts to likely optimal viewing locations. Additionally, high-resolution data are presented for the centerline of the path of each eclipse, representing the likelihood for cloudless skies and atmospheric clarity. The NSRDB provides industry, academia, and other stakeholders with high-resolution solar irradiance data to support feasibility analyses for photovoltaic and concentrating solar power generation projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station (ISS) Plasma Contactor Unit (PCU) Utilization Plan Assessment Update

The International Space Station (ISS) vehicle undergoes spacecraft charging as it interacts with Earth's ionosphere and magnetic field. The interaction can result in a large potential difference developing between the ISS metal chassis and the local ionosphere plasma environment. If an astronaut conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) is exposed to the potential difference, then a possible electrical shock hazard arises. The control of this hazard was addressed by a number of documents within the ISS Program (ISSP) including Catastrophic Safety Hazard for Astronauts on EVA (ISS-EVA-312-4A_revE). The safety hazard identified the risk for an astronaut to experience an electrical shock in the event an arc was generated on an extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) surface. A catastrophic safety hazard, by the ISS requirements, necessitates mitigation by a two-fault tolerant system of hazard controls. Traditionally, the plasma contactor units (PCUs) on the ISS have been used to limit the charging and serve as a "ground strap" between the ISS structure and the surrounding ionospheric plasma. In 2009, a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) team evaluated the PCU utilization plan (NESC Request #07-054-E) with the objective to assess whether leaving PCUs off during non-EVA time periods presented risk to the ISS through assembly completion. For this study, in situ measurements of ISS charging, covering the installation of three of the four photovoltaic arrays, and laboratory testing results provided key data to underpin the assessment. The conclusion stated, "there appears to be no significant risk of damage to critical equipment nor excessive ISS thermal coating damage as a result of eliminating PCU operations during non- EVA times." In 2013, the ISSP was presented with recommendations from Boeing Space Environments for the "Conditional" Marginalization of Plasma Hazard. These recommendations include a plan that would keep the PCUs off during EVAs when the space environment forecast input to the ISS charging model indicates floating potentials (FP) within specified limits. These recommendations were based on the persistence of conditions in the space environment due to the current low solar cycle and belief in the accuracy and completeness of the ISS charging model. Subsequently, a Noncompliance Report (NCR), ISS-NCR-232G, Lack of Two-fault Tolerance to EVA Crew Shock in the Low Earth Orbit Plasma Environment, was signed in September 2013 specifying new guidelines for the use of shock hazard controls based on a forecast of the space environment from ISS plasma measurements taken prior to the EVA [ISS-EVA-312-AC, 2012]. This NESC assessment re-evaluates EVA charging hazards through a process that is based on over 14 years of ISS operations, charging measurements, laboratory tests, EMU studies and modifications, and safety reports. The assessment seeks an objective review of the plasma charging hazards associated with EVA operations to determine if any of the present hazard controls can safely change the PCU utilization plan to allow more flexibility in ISS operations during EVA preparation and execution.

Hernandez-Pellerano, Amri↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Solar Energetic Particles Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and a Bidirectional LSTM Network

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-Relativistic Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Energetic electrons inside Earth's Van Allen belts pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics that often play vital roles in modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest, and thus forecasting these ≥2 MeV electrons has a significant meaning to all space sectors. Here, we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)-2E, forecasts ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer belt, with no need for in situ measurements of the trapped MeV electron population except at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earthorbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind speeds and densities from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model outperforms individual models at most L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model can provide 25-h (~1-day) and 50-h (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency and correlation values. Our results also suggest that this new model is dominated by nonlinear components at L-shells <~4 for ultra-relativistic electrons, different from the dominance of linear components for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Net-Zero Ethylene: On the Sustainability, Economics, and Scalability of Synthetic and Fossil Production Pathways

The ethylene industry has contributed over 260 million tons of CO 2 annually, warranting a more sustainable approach. The conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O into ethylene is an appealing technology capable of decoupling chemical production from fossil fuels. However, the large energy demand from this process can potentially lead to adverse environmental impacts. Here, in this article, we critically analyze the economic viability, environmental impact, and scalability of the conversion of CO 2 to ethylene via electrochemical reduction (CO 2 R) and compare this with those of CO 2 -neutral fossil routes utilizing carbon capture and direct air capture. Ethylene derived from CO 2 may be economically competitive under optimistic conditions; however, its large energy requirements pose environmental and scalability challenges. Meeting forecast 2050 ethylene demand using CO 2 R would require half of all electricity produced globally today, and, if powered by solar PV, may have greater CO 2 emissions than current petrochemical ethylene production, negating the purpose of this technology. Using Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Capture to decarbonize petrochemical pathways would require roughly an order of magnitude less energy but would have disproportionate health and climate impacts. Lastly, the analysis highlights the importance of low-carbon energy sources to ensure sustainable CO 2 R ethylene production.

CO2R↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar Corona Explorer: A mission for the physical diagnosis of the solar corona

Mission objectives and spacecraft requirements for the Solar Corona Explorer (SCE), a proposed free flying, unmanned solar research craft to be tenatively launched in 1987, were defined. The SCE's purpose is to investigate structure, dynamics and evolution of the corona, globally and in the required physical detail, to study the close coupling between the inner corona and the heliosphere. Investigative objectives are: (1) to understand the corona as the source of varying interplanetary plasma and of varying solar X-ray and extreme ultraviolet fluxes; (2) to develop the capabilities to model the corona with sufficient precision to forecast the Earth's variable environment in space, on the scales from weeks to years; (3) to develop an understanding of the physical processes that determine the dynamics and physical state of the coronal plasma, particularly acceleration processes; and (4) to develop insight and test theory on the Sun applicable to stellar coronae and winds, and in particular, to understand why cool stars put such a large fraction of their energy into X-rays. Considered related factors are: (1) duration of the mission; (2) onboard measuring instrumentation; (3) ground support equipment and procedures; and (4) programs of interpretation and modeling.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NAIRAS Model Updates and Improvements to the Prediction of the Ionizing Radiation Environment from the Earth's Surface to Geospace

- NAIRAS Model Description - Nowcast of Aerospace Ionizing RAdiation System (NAIRAS) Model - Running in real-time on LaRC computer cluster since 2011, results hosted on Space Environment Technologies server/website - Running in real-time at CCMC since 2020 - Key Model Features - Global ionizing radiation environment model - Physics-based HZETRN (High Charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) code - Real-time inclusion of solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation - Real-time solar-magnetospheric effects on radiation (cutoff model by Kress et al. [2004, 2010]) - New/Current Model Development - Improved SEP dose nowcast and forecast - Extend to low-Earth orbit (LEO) environment - Single-Event Effects (SEE) radiation risk assessment quantities - Run-on-Request (RoR) @ CCMC

Christopher J. Mertens↗
NASA NTRS1992

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Lee, Robert B., III↗
NASA NTRS2012

Measurements and IRI Model Predictions During the Recent Solar Minimum

Cycle 23 was exceptional in that it lasted almost two years longer than its predecessors and in that it ended in an extended minimum period that proved all predictions wrong. Comparisons of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) with CHAMP and GRACE in-situ measurements of electron density during the minimum have revealed significant discrepancies at 400-500 km altitude. Our study investigates the causes for these discrepancies with the help of ionosonde and Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) data from the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite. Our C/NOFS comparisons confirm the earlier CHAMP and GRACE results. But the ionosonde measurements of the F-peak plasma frequency (foF2) show generally good agreement throughout the whole solar cycle. At mid-latitude stations yearly averages of the data-model difference are within 10% and at low latitudes stations within 20%. The 60-70% differences found at 400-500 km altitude are not seen at the F peak. We will discuss how these seemingly contradicting results from the ionosonde and in situ data-model comparisons can be explained and which parameters need to be corrected in the IRI model.

Bilitza, Dieter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability

Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗