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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Metagenomic Characterization of Soil Microbial Communities in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (Puerto Rico) and Implications for Nitrogen Cycling

The phylogenetic and functional diversities of microbial communities in tropical rainforests and how these differ from those of temperate communities remain poorly described but are directly related to the increased fluxes of greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from the tropics. Toward closing these knowledge gaps, in this study we analyzed replicated shotgun metagenomes representing distinct life zones and an elevation gradient from four locations in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF), Puerto Rico. These soils had a distinct microbial community composition and lower species diversity compared to those of temperate grasslands or agricultural soils. In contrast to the overall distinct community composition, the relative abundances and nucleotide sequences of N 2 O reductases (nosZ) were highly similar between tropical forest and temperate soils. However, respiratory NO reductase (norB) was 2-fold more abundant in the tropical soils, which might be relatable to their greater N 2 O emissions. Nitrogen fixation (nifH) also showed higher relative abundance in rainforest than in temperate soils, i.e., 20% versus 0.1 to 0.3% of bacterial genomes in each soil type harbored the gene, respectively. Finally, unlike temperate soils, LEF soils showed little stratification with depth in the first 0 to 30 cm, with ~45% of community composition differences explained solely by location. Collectively, these results advance our understanding of spatial diversity and metabolic repertoire of tropical rainforest soil communities and should facilitate future ecological studies of these ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supporting hierarchical soil biogeochemical modeling: version 2 of the Biogeochemical Transport and Reaction model (BeTR-v2)

Abstract. Reliable soil biogeochemical modeling is a prerequisite for credible projections of climate change and associated ecosystem feedbacks. This recognition has called for frameworks that can support flexible and efficient development and application of new or alternative soil biogeochemical modules in Earth system models (ESMs). The the Biogeochemical Transport and Reaction model version 1 (BeTR-v1) code (i.e., CLM4-BeTR) is one such framework designed to accelerate the development and integration of new soil biogeochemistry formulations into ESMs and to analyze structural uncertainty in ESM simulations. With a generic reactive transport capability, BeTR-v1 can represent multiphase (e.g., gaseous, aqueous, and solid), multi-tracer (e.g., nitrate and organic carbon), and multi-organism (e.g., plants, bacteria, and fungi) dynamics. Here, we describe the new version, Biogeochemical Transport and Reaction model version 2 (BeTR-v2), which adopts more robust numerical solvers for multiphase diffusion and advection and coupling between biogeochemical reactions and improves code modularization over BeTR-v1. BeTR-v2 better supports different mathematical formulations in a hierarchical manner by allowing the resultant model be run for a single topsoil layer or a vertically resolved soil column, and it allows the model to be fully coupled with the land component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We demonstrate the capability of BeTR-v2 with benchmark cases and example soil biogeochemical (BGC) implementations. By taking advantage of BeTR-v2's generic structure integrated in E3SM, we then found that calibration could not resolve biases introduced by different numerical coupling strategies of plant–soil biogeochemistry. These results highlight the importance of numerically robust implementation of soil biogeochemistry and coupling with hydrology, thermal dynamics, and plants – capabilities that the open-source BeTR-v2 provides. We contend that Earth system models should strive to minimize this uncertainty by applying better numerical solvers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea Level-Driven Marsh Migration Results in Rapid Net Loss of Carbon

Sea level rise alters coastal carbon cycling by driving the rapid migration of coastal ecosystems, salinization of freshwater systems, and replacement of terrestrial forests with tidal wetlands. Wetland soils accumulate carbon (C) at faster rates than terrestrial soils, implying that sea level rise may lead to enhanced carbon accumulation. Here, we show that carbon stored in tree biomass greatly exceeds carbon stored in adjacent marsh soils so that marsh migration reduces total carbon stocks by ~50% in less than 100 years. Continued marsh soil carbon accumulation may eventually offset forest carbon loss, but we estimate that the time for replacement is similar to estimates of marsh survival (i.e., centuries), which suggests that forest C may never be replaced. These findings reveal a critical C source not included in coastal C budgets driven by migrating ecosystems and rapidly shifting allocations between carbon stored in soils and biomass.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Root litter decomposition rates and impacts of drought are regulated by ecosystem legacy

In grassland ecosystems, about two-thirds of productivity is in roots, and therefore roots constitute a major soil organic matter input. However, influences on the rate of root litter decomposition remain unresolved, especially in the context of land-use conversion and climate change. Ecosystem legacy can affect root decomposition rates via impacts on substrate chemistry and soil environments, and this may manifest in responses of decomposition to changing temperature and moisture. Here we investigate the impacts of anthropogenic legacy effects and moderate drought on root litter decomposition rates in five "Land Use History Types": crop fields, cow pastures, remnant tallgrass prairie, and prairie restored from crop fields and pastures. We measured root losses of mass, carbon, and nitrogen over 11 months. Further, soil bulk density was unimportant for decomposition, but soil moisture content and temperature were relevant for decomposition rates while time since disturbance predicted decomposition initiation times. Furthermore, soil moisture and temperature dynamics alone could not explain the responses of decomposition rates to drought, which were positively correlated to time since disturbance. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic legacy impacts decomposition rates in grasslands, especially when soil moisture and temperature dynamics are substantially altered, and mediates soil community responses to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward a coordinated understanding of hydro‐biogeochemical root functions in tropical forests for application in vegetation models

Summary Tropical forest root characteristics and resource acquisition strategies are underrepresented in vegetation and global models, hampering the prediction of forest–climate feedbacks for these carbon‐rich ecosystems. Lowland tropical forests often have globally unique combinations of high taxonomic and functional biodiversity, rainfall seasonality, and strongly weathered infertile soils, giving rise to distinct patterns in root traits and functions compared with higher latitude ecosystems. We provide a roadmap for integrating recent advances in our understanding of tropical forest belowground function into vegetation models, focusing on water and nutrient acquisition. We offer comparisons of recent advances in empirical and model understanding of root characteristics that represent important functional processes in tropical forests. We focus on: (1) fine‐root strategies for soil resource exploration, (2) coupling and trade‐offs in fine‐root water vs nutrient acquisition, and (3) aboveground–belowground linkages in plant resource acquisition and use. We suggest avenues for representing these extremely diverse plant communities in computationally manageable and ecologically meaningful groups in models for linked aboveground–belowground hydro‐nutrient functions. Tropical forests are undergoing warming, shifting rainfall regimes, and exacerbation of soil nutrient scarcity caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 . The accurate model representation of tropical forest functions is crucial for understanding the interactions of this biome with the climate.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Soil Respiration, Moisture, and Temperature in Four Distinct Lowland Panamanian Forests from 2015-2022

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that throughfall reduction (i.e. chronic drying) would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We conducted a field study in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests that vary in background rainfall and soil fertility. In each forest we constructed throughfall reduction structures that reduce moisture inputs to plots by ~50% (see methods). In drying and paired control plots we measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture (volume/volume), soil temperature (°C), air temperature (°C), and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022). We also collected litterfall biomass and surveyed all tree species for diameter at breast height (dbh), and identified tree species in 2018 and 2019.Results:We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks. Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for soil respiration (carbon dioxide flux) collected using the LiCor (see methods), air temperature °C , soil moisture (vl/vl), and soil temperature °C. Soil moisture and soil temperature were collected at 0-10cm depths using hand-held probes (see methods). Data are on ~3 week timescales from 2015-2022 with some gaps. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distinct assembly mechanisms underlie similar biogeographical patterns of rare and abundant bacteria in Tibetan Plateau grassland soils

Rare biosphere represents the majority of Earth's biodiversity and performs vital ecological functions, yet little is known about its biogeographical patterns and community assembly processes in terrestrial ecosystems. Herein, we investigated the community composition and phylogeny of rare (relative abundance <0.1%) and abundant (>1%) bacteria in dryland grassland soils on the Tibetan Plateau. Results revealed similar biogeographical patterns of rare and abundant bacteria at both compositional and phylogenetic levels, but rare subcommunity was more heavily influenced by stochasticity (72%) than the abundant (57%). The compositional variation of rare bacteria was less explained by environmental factors (41%) than that of the abundant (80%), while the phylogeny of rare bacteria (36%) was more explained than that of the abundant (29%). The phylogeny of rare bacteria was equally explained by local factors (soil and vegetation) and geospatial distance (11.5% and 11.9% respectively), while that of the abundant was more explained by geospatial distance (22.1%) than local factors (11.3%). Furthermore, a substantially tighter connection between the community phylogeny and composition was observed in rare (R(2) = 0.65) than in abundant bacteria (R(2) = 0.08). Our study provides novel insights into the assembly processes and biographical patterns of rare and abundant bacteria in dryland soils.

Ji, Mukan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial turnover of soil viral populations and genotypes overlain by cohesive responses to moisture in grasslands

Viruses shape microbial communities, food web dynamics, and carbon and nutrient cycling in diverse ecosystems. However, little is known about the patterns and drivers of viral community composition, particularly in soil, precluding a predictive understanding of viral impacts on terrestrial habitats. To investigate soil viral community assembly processes, here we analyzed 43 soil viromes from a rainfall manipulation experiment in a Mediterranean grassland in California. We identified 5,315 viral populations (viral operational taxonomic units [vOTUs] with a representative sequence ≥10 kbp) and found that viral community composition exhibited a highly significant distance–decay relationship within the 200-m 2 field site. This pattern was recapitulated by the intrapopulation microheterogeneity trends of prevalent vOTUs (detected in ≥90% of the viromes), which tended to exhibit negative correlations between spatial distance and the genomic similarity of their predominant allelic variants. Although significant spatial structuring was also observed in the bacterial and archaeal communities, the signal was dampened relative to the viromes, suggesting differences in local assembly drivers for viruses and prokaryotes and/or differences in the temporal scales captured by viromes and total DNA. Despite the overwhelming spatial signal, evidence for environmental filtering was revealed in a protein-sharing network analysis, wherein a group of related vOTUs predicted to infect actinobacteria was shown to be significantly enriched in low-moisture samples distributed throughout the field. Overall, our results indicate a highly diverse, dynamic, active, and spatially structured soil virosphere capable of rapid responses to changing environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface-active antibiotic production as a multifunctional adaptation for postfire microorganisms

Abstract Wildfires affect soils in multiple ways, leading to numerous challenges for colonizing microorganisms. Although it is thought that fire-adapted microorganisms lie at the forefront of postfire ecosystem recovery, the specific strategies that these organisms use to thrive in burned soils remain largely unknown. Through bioactivity screening of bacterial isolates from burned soils, we discovered that several Paraburkholderia spp. isolates produced a set of unusual rhamnolipid surfactants with a natural methyl ester modification. These rhamnolipid methyl esters (RLMEs) exhibited enhanced antimicrobial activity against other postfire microbial isolates, including pyrophilous Pyronema fungi and Amycolatopsis bacteria, compared to the typical rhamnolipids made by organisms such as Pseudomonas spp. RLMEs also showed enhanced surfactant properties and facilitated bacterial motility on agar surfaces. In vitro assays further demonstrated that RLMEs improved aqueous solubilization of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, which are potential carbon sources found in char. Identification of the rhamnolipid biosynthesis genes in the postfire isolate, Paraburkholderia kirstenboschensis str. F3, led to the discovery of rhlM, whose gene product is responsible for the unique methylation of rhamnolipid substrates. RhlM is the first characterized bacterial representative of a large class of integral membrane methyltransferases that are widespread in bacteria. These results indicate multiple roles for RLMEs in the postfire lifestyle of Paraburkholderia isolates, including enhanced dispersal, solubilization of potential nutrients, and inhibition of competitors. Our findings shed new light on the chemical adaptations that bacteria employ to navigate, grow, and outcompete other soil community members in postfire environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microbial dispersal into surface soil is limited on a meter scale

Abstract Dispersal shapes microbial communities, yet it is largely unknown how fast or how far free-living microorganisms move in the environment. Here, we deployed microbial traps along transects spanning a grassland and neighboring shrubland to quantify the rate and distance at which microorganisms disperse into the soil surface. We found that bacteria disperse at a similar rate across the two ecosystems, and both bacteria and fungi exhibit a signature of dispersal limitation at a meter scale, indicating highly heterogeneous dispersal of microorganisms into soil.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A new bioenergy model that simulates the impacts of plant‐microbial interactions, soil carbon protection, and mechanistic tillage on soil carbon cycling

Abstract Advancing our predictive understanding of bioenergy systems is critical to design decision tools that can inform which feedstock to plant, where to plant it, and how to manage its production to provide both energy and ecosystem carbon (C) benefits. Here, we lay the foundation for that advancement by integrating recent developments in the science of belowground processes in shaping the C cycle into a new bioenergy model, FUN‐BioCROP (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen‐Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection). We show that FUN‐BioCROP can approximate the historical trajectory of soil C dynamics as natural ecosystems were successively converted into intensive agriculture and bioenergy systems. This ability relies in part on a novel tillage representation that mechanistically models tillage as a process that increases microbial access to C. Importantly, the impacts of tillage and feedstock choice also influence FUN‐BioCROP simulations of warming responses with no‐till perennial feedstocks, miscanthus, and switchgrass, having more C that is unprotected and susceptible to warming than tilled annual feedstocks like corn–corn–soybean. However, this susceptibility to warming is balanced by a greater potential for increases in belowground C allocation to enhance soil C stocks in perennial systems. Collectively, our model results highlight the importance of belowground processes in evaluating the ecosystem C benefits of bioenergy production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic and deterministic processes shape bioenergy crop microbiomes along a vertical soil niche

Abstract Sustainable biofuel cropping systems aim to address climate change while meeting energy needs. Understanding how soil and plant‐associated microbes respond to these different cropping systems is key to promoting agriculture sustainability and evaluating changes in ecosystem functions. Here, we leverage a long‐term biofuel cropping system field experiment to dissect soil and root microbiome changes across a soil‐depth gradient in poplar, restored prairie and switchgrass to understand their effects on the microbial communities. High throughput amplicon sequencing of the fungal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and prokaryotic 16S DNA regions showed a common trend of root and soil microbial community richness decreasing and evenness increasing with depth. Ecological niche (root vs. soil) had the strongest effect on community structure, followed by depth, then crop. Stochastic processes dominated the structuring of fungal communities in deeper soil layers while operational taxonomic units (OTUs) in surface soil layers were more likely to co‐occur and to be enriched by plant hosts. Prokaryotic communities were dispersal limited at deeper depths. Microbial networks showed a higher density, connectedness, average degree and module size in deeper soils. We observed a decrease in fungal‐fungal links and an increase of bacteria–bacteria links with increasing depth in all crops, particularly in the root microbiome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset for Cruz-O'Byrne et al (2026): "Divergent biogeochemical responses in upland coastal forest soils to repeated flooding and shifts in water chemistry"

Hydrologic disturbances from accelerated sea-level rise and the increasing frequency and intensity of storms and tidal flooding are altering biogeochemical processes in upland coastal forests, transforming these ecosystems into wetlands. However, the initial effects of flooding on belowground biogeochemistry and the mechanisms driving greenhouse gas dynamics and soil organic matter stability during the early stages of this transition remain poorly understood. This dataset presents the results of a mesocosm experiment conducted in a controlled, highly instrumented laboratory environment, in which freshwater and brackish water pulses were applied to intact soil monoliths from a temperate upland coastal forest to examine how floodwater chemistry influences soil biogeochemistry and organo-mineral interactions. All data files are plain-text CSV (comma-separated value), and no special software is required to read them. Details about the content of each file are available in the document “Dataset_readme”. The dataset consists of the following data: • rcruzobyrne_moisture: Soil volumetric water content (VWC) • rcruzobyrne_GHG: Headspace greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and fluxes • rcruzobyrne_methane_isotopes: Headspace methane isotope signature • rcruzobyrne_porewater: Porewater chemistry • rcruzobyrne_CDOM: Porewater colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) • rcruzobyrne_FTIR: Soil Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy Details of the experimental setup, data collection, and data analysis are provided in the manuscript by Cruz-O’Byrne et al (2026) Divergent biogeochemical responses in upland coastal forest soils to repeated flooding and shifts in water chemistry. Biogeochemistry. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-026-01340-0

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > GREENHOUSE GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phosphorus and cover crop management practices affect phosphorus speciation in soils and eroded sediments

Abstract Agricultural runoff often contains P in dissolved and sediment‐bound forms, decreasing surface water quality. No‐till and cover cropping conservation practices have been recommended for reducing erosion and nutrient loss from cropping systems. The overall aims of this study were to characterize and evaluate the effects of fertilizer (placement and source) and cover crop management on P speciation in surface runoff sediments and source soil. In 2014, a field‐scale experiment was established in a no‐till, corn (Zea maysL.)–soybean (Glycine maxL.) cropping system with two cover crop treatments (with and without a winter crop; winter wheat [Triticum aestivumL.], rapeseed [Brassica napusL.], hairy vetch [Vicia villosaRoth], winter triticale [×Triticosecale Wittm.], and cereal rye [Secale cerealeL.]) and three P fertilizer management treatments (no P, fall broadcast diammonium phosphate, and spring subsurface injected ammonium polyphosphate). Phosphorus fractionation in the source soil collected in the fall of 2019 and sediment samples collected throughout 2020 were analyzed using a modified sequential P extraction method to evaluate the cumulative effects of imposing the treatment factors over 5 years. The direct P speciation was done using X‐ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy. The indirect P speciation (fractionation) results showed that the management practices affected the exchangeable, organic matter‐associated, and Fe‐bound P fractions in sediments and the exchangeable and residual fractions in source soil. Direct P speciation results showed a depletion of Fe‐associated P in soil and sediment from cover crop treatment, suggesting that Fe‐associated P species were affected by cover crops. Changes in soil and runoff sediment P speciation would change the proportions and forms of soluble and particulate P in runoff sediments and may influence P bioavailability in aquatic ecosystems. Developing P fertilizer and cropping system management options with an understanding of soil P transformations helps maintain environmental sustainability.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vulnerability of mineral-organic associations in the rhizosphere

The majority of soil carbon (C) is stored in organic matter associated with reactive minerals. These mineral-organic associations (MOAs) inhibit microbial and enzymatic access to organic matter, suggesting that organic C within MOAs is resistant to decomposition. However, plant roots and rhizosphere microbes are known to transform minerals through dissolution and exchange reactions, implying that MOAs in the rhizosphere can be dynamic. Here we identify key drivers, mechanisms, and controls of MOA disruption in the rhizosphere and present a new conceptual framework for the vulnerability of soil C within MOAs. We introduce a vulnerability spectrum that highlights how MOAs characteristic of certain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to specific root-driven disruption mechanisms. This vulnerability spectrum provides a framework for critically assessing the importance of MOA disruption mechanisms at the ecosystem scale. Comprehensive representation of not only root-driven MOA formation, but also disruption, will improve model projections of soil C-climate feedbacks and guide the development of more effective soil C management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dissection of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Post-Fire Soil Environments using a Genome- Informed Experimental Community (Final Technical Report)

Wildfires are a natural part of many forest ecosystems, with globally important carbon (C) storage and nutrient cycling consequences, and they are increasing in frequency and severity in Western North America. Forest fires affect soil C stocks in complex ways; some C is released into the atmosphere through combustion, while a large percentage of the C is added to the soil in the form of pyrogenic organic matter. Worldwide, it is estimated that 16% of soil organic matter is pyrogenic, while locally, this number may be as high as 80%. Understanding how wildfires affect soil organic matter cycling requires understanding how microbes respond to pyrogenic organic matter and other post-fire soil conditions. However, our understanding of microbial interactions within post-fire soil was in its infancy at the time of our proposal. Outstanding questions included: Which microbes are capable of degrading pyrogenic organic matter? What are the relevant genes and metabolites associated with this degradation? What are the key interactions among post-fire microbes? Key highlights of outcomes supported by this grant included training eleven early-career scientists and two early-career PIs, publication of twelve peer-reviewed papers, cross-lab collaborations that empowered complex scientific approaches, the development of an open-source automated gas sampler to drive novel insights in C cycling, enhanced understanding of post-fire microbial community dynamics, and novel genetic and molecular insights into microbial responses to fire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental Co‐Benefits of Maintaining Native Vegetation With Solar Photovoltaic Infrastructure

Abstract Co‐locating solar photovoltaics with vegetation could provide a sustainable solution to meeting growing food and energy demands. However, studies quantifying multiple co‐benefits resulting from maintaining vegetation at utility‐scale solar power plants are limited. We monitored the microclimate, soil moisture, panel temperature, electricity generation and soil properties at a utility‐scale solar facility in a continental climate with different site management practices. The compounding effect of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation may homogenize soil moisture distribution and provide greater soil temperature buffer against extreme temperatures. The vegetated solar areas had significantly higher soil moisture, carbon, and other nutrients compared to bare solar areas. Agrivoltaics in agricultural areas with carbon debt can be an effective climate mitigation strategy along with revitalizing agricultural soils, generating income streams from fallow land, and providing pollinator habitats. However, the benefits of vegetation cooling effects on electricity generation are rather site‐specific and depend on the background climate and soil properties. Overall, our findings provide foundational data for site preservation along with targeting site‐specific co‐benefits, and for developing climate resilient and resource conserving agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗