Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “scenario”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29

A Laboratory Psychoacoustic Test of the Tradeoff Between Frequent UAM Events and Their Level

Earlier this year, a psychoacoustic test was conducted in the EER which investigated how members of the public reacted to scenarios containing multiple UAM flyover events. The subjects read books of their choosing for 4 minutes at a time, during which a scenario played. They were asked to register their annoyance reaction to the scenario on an 11 point numerical scale after all of the flyovers had played. The scenarios were formulated to have several different tradeoffs between the number of flyovers played within the 4 minutes, and the level of the flyovers. The results indicate that for paces of operations typical of a busy airport (from .5 to 2 flyovers per minute), subjects seemed to be more sensitive to an increase in the number of operations than would be implied by the equal-energy hypothesis. For numbers of operations greater than this - more than what could be achieved at an airport, but perhaps what is possible in UAM scenarios - the subjects were less sensitive to increases in the number of operations and seemed to revert to the equal-energy tradeoff between level and number.

Psychoacoustics↗

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As lunar missions increase in complexity inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient capability of the Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) system to support their scientific objectives. In addition, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program initiates the proliferation of public and private exploration partnerships using small satellites from commercial and private organizations, expanding traditionally confined low Earth orbit to be used for missions beyond geosynchronous orbit (Zucherman et al., 2022). Therefore, the Lunar PNT system is also required to provide navigation services compatible with the smaller platforms being sent by the public and private sectors, like CubeSats. However, traditional approaches to deep space missions’ navigation based on ground radio facilities have difficulties in providing sufficient support for the increasing number of users and communication at a distance from the Earth (Kaplev et al., 2022). In particular, the existing Lunar navigation technologies such as weak signal global positioning system (GPS) and deep space network (DSN) are not able to ensure operations of the upcoming small-scale Lunar missions due to their limitations in localization performance as well as capacity aspects. Another way to provide Lunar PNT service is to create a dedicated Lunar global navigation satellite system (GNSS) constellation, like GNSS systems on Earth. Space agencies like NASA, ESA, and JAXA are now developing the lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS). In their systems, satellites will be deployed in moon orbits to provide the communication, positioning, navigation, and timing (CPNT) service at the lunar south pole region where the Artemis base camp will be expected (Murata et al., 2022). Meanwhile, common challenges considered in lunar PNT research arise from poor geometry of the terrestrial GNSS satellites when seen from the lunar user, highly perturbed lunar orbits, and limitations in power, size, and cost of the equipment on lunar satellites (Iiyama et al., 2023). It is also not clear if there will be enough Lunar users to support the cost and resources this would require as the Low-cost surface missions may not be able to support the large power, mass, and weight requirements that these navigation solutions entail (Niemoeller et al., 2022). As an alternative, existing Lunar science and exploration assets could be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions (Hagenau et al., 2021). Introducing the non-dedicated and ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation gives a way to provide PNT services on-demand. The non-dedicated swarm assets of Lunar constellations are designed to localize themselves with minimal interaction with Earth by adding cooperative autonomous localization to lunar missions, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. An autonomous localization of Lunar constellations is based on the concept of the decentralized PNT system with a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) approach to state estimation for minimal onboard operating costs. In the distributed data processing algorithm, computation is broken down and assigned to each satellite, resulting in a considerably decreased computational amount while maintaining the accuracy of the orbit ephemeris and clock offsets as the result of centralized data processing (Wen et al., 2019). The DEKF requires spacecraft to perform two-way ranging operations with each other to communicate simultaneously, leveraging neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements such as pseudoranges to, and relative velocities between, visible satellites as sensor values (Frank et al., 2021). The Lunar autonomous PNT simulation (LAPS) demonstrated the feasibility of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar small-sat constellations based on the DEKF in Hagenau et al. (2021) and evaluated the matching algorithm proposed by Frank et al. (2021) in scheduling position estimation updates. In previous papers, all assets and measurements are assumed to be always available without consideration of the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure. This study presents localization performance with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets and users to demonstrate the robustness of the decentralized Lunar PNT service in more realistic scenarios. Main issues arising from communication failure include spacecraft permanent or transient loss, antenna failures, message delays, etc. We tested four possible reasons for network degradation for 7 days in 21 satellites frozen with an altitude of 5500 km, evenly spaced around 3 circular, 40 inclination orbital planes where each spacecraft has two directional antennas. As anchor nodes with an independent estimate of their position are required in the DEKF approach, two ground nodes in each pole and one node in the gateway were implemented in the simulation. First, the most probable failure scenario involves the loss of a single spacecraft due to solar interference and technical malfunctions of the assets. Losing the availability of a single spacecraft means losing the two-way ISL measurement of the asset in the DEKF update. In order to provide the best possible quality of PNT service with limited time and resources, the distributed Lunar constellations must schedule the communication activities. The scheduler leverages mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) for the coordination and scheduling of the desired “as-needed” localization service (Niemoeller et al., 2022). We assume the scheduler has completely excluded the spacecraft information before the DEKF update in the failure scenario. When a random spacecraft has been turned off at a specific time, the robustness of the autonomous Lunar PNT system is evaluated. The simulation results give an 11.5% degradation in median position accuracy compared to the idealized performance excluding the asset loss. Second, a large number of assets may vanish due to major hardware problems or meteor strikes around the moon. A multiple spacecraft loss can degrade the localization performance very fast by losing the communication ability to do cross-plane measurements and in-plane measurements in a 3-plane constellation. When the matching-based scheduler is aware of ISL availability, we investigate a large number of in-plane and cross-plane asset vanishments both in close proximity and equally spaced throughout the orbital plane. According to the simulations, the loss of in-plane measurements gives 40.2% degradation while cross-plane measurements degrade 50.5% of asset localization performance among available assets. Therefore, it is concluded that cross-plane measurements are more important in improving the position estimation accuracy. Third, spacecraft failure information can be lost due to the internal message delay, resulting in the DEKF update scheduler to solve the matching problem with unavailable assets. The DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations where a global broadcast network and a 2-way ISL network setup take 6 minutes in total (Frank et al., 2021). Once the broadcast network successfully transmits and receives information, a random spacecraft may lose its availability right before solving the matching problem. This means the matching solution is no longer optimal, resulting in degradation in the localization performance. A numerical assessment shows the matching-based scheduler with knowing failure holds 11.5% of position accuracy degradation, whereas the scheduler without knowing failure gives 34% degraded localization performance without asset loss. Fourth, a transient loss of a single or multiple spacecraft may occur due to their antenna outages. After losing the two-way ISL availability for a few DEKF update cycles, the availability of spacecraft can easily be recovered as their states have been independently updated using measurements from anchor nodes. It is likely that the longer failure will result in worse localization performance. We have tested the transient failure of a random single asset for 30 min in the simulation, which is losing 3 update cycles in the DEKF system. From the simulation results, the position accuracy has been degraded to 4.84% which is better than the degraded localization performance of 11.5% from the permanent loss scenario among available assets. In conclusion, the autonomous Lunar PNT system based on the DEKF approach shows the ability to maintain resilience and robustness in the possible communication failure scenarios, ensuring that localization accuracy is preserved across various network degradation and outages. Future studies on investigating user localization performance near the South Pole and the broadcast network system will be continued in the following months.

Yeji Kim↗

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Dryland Farming Systems in Zimbabwe: A Stakeholder-Driven Integrated Multi-Model Assessment

Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.

Climate change adaptation↗

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Source record↗

Computer-aided testing of pilot response to critical in-flight events

This research on pilot response to critical in-flight events employs a unique methodology including an interactive computer-aided scenario-testing system. Navigation displays, instrument-panel displays, and assorted textual material are presented on a touch-sensitive CRT screen. Problem diagnosis scenarios, destination-diversion scenarios and combined destination/diagnostic tests are available. A complete time history of all data inquiries and responses is maintained. Sample results of diagnosis scenarios obtained from testing 38 licensed pilots are presented and discussed.

Giffin, W. C.↗

Measuring moment-to-moment pilot workload using synchronous presentations of secondary tasks in a motion-base trainer

A simulation was conducted to determine whether the sensitivity of secondary task measures of pilot workload could be improved by synchronizing their presentation to the occurrence of specific events or pilot actions. This synchronous method of presentation was compared to the more typical asynchronous method, where secondary task presentations are independent of pilot's flight-related activities. Twelve pilots flew low- and high-difficulty scenarios in a motion-base trainer with and without concurrent secondary tasks (e.g., choice reaction time and time production). The difficulty of each scenario was manipulated by the addition of 21 flight-related tasks superimposed on a standard approach and landing sequence. The insertion of the secondary tasks did not affect primary flight performance. However, secondary task performance did reflect workload differences between scenarios and among flight segments within scenarios, replicating the results of an earlier study in which the secondary tasks were presented asynchronously (Bortolussi et al., 1986).

Bortolussi, Michael R.↗

A radiological assessment of nuclear power and propulsion operations near Space Station Freedom

Scenarios were identified which involve the use of nuclear power systems in the vicinity of Space Station Freedom (SSF) and their radiological impact on the SSF crew was quantified. Several of the developed scenarios relate to the use of SSF as an evolutionary transportation node for lunar and Mars missions. In particular, radiation doses delivered to SSF crew were calculated for both the launch and subsequent return of a Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) cargo vehicle and a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) personnel vehicle to low earth orbit. The use of nuclear power on co-orbiting platforms and the storage and handling issues associated with radioisotope power systems were also explored as they relate to SSF. A central philosophy in these analyses was the utilization of a radiation dose budget, defined as the difference between recommended dose limits from all radiation sources and estimated doses received by crew members from natural space radiations. Consequently, for each scenario examined, the dose budget concept was used to identify and quantify constraints on operational parameters such as launch separation distances, returned vehicle parking distances, and reactor shutdown times prior to vehicle approach. The results indicate that realistic scenarios do not exist which would preclude the use of nuclear power sources in the vicinity of SSF. The radiation dose to the SSF crew can be maintained at safe levels solely by implementing proper and reasonable operating procedures.

Bolch, Wesley E.↗

Lunar mission aerobrake performance study

Nine lunar mission scenarios were developed to show the transfer vehicle performance benefits of aerobraking into low Earth orbit (LEO) upon Earth return as opposed to an all-propulsive maneuver. The initial mass in LEO (IMLEO) of the lunar transfer vehicle is considered the measure of vehicle performance. Four types of mission profiles in conjunction with two vehicle concepts were used to construct the scenarios. These nine scenarios were designed to represent a broad range of possible lunar missions so that a general knowledge base of aerobraking and lunar transfer vehicle performance levels could be obtained. Also discussed are the mass sensitivities of each transfer vehicle to changes in the selected design parameters: Isp, crew module mass, payload to surface, and aerobrake mass fraction. A parametric study was performed on two of the mission scenarios to help quantify the performance benefits by adding a set of drop tanks to the vehicle. The parametric study also provides partial derivatives which show the sensitivities of IMLEO to the four design parameters listed. A ranking is given based on vehicle performance.

Mulqueen, J.↗

Determining the IV fluids required for a ten day medical emergency on Space Station Freedom - Comparison of packaged vs. on-orbit produced solutions

To aid planning for the storage of supplies onboard Space Station Freedom, an estimate was made of the amount of intravenous (IV) fluid required to support a patient who has suffered a medical emergency for a period of up to 10 days. Six different medical scenarios were evaluated, and the volume of IV fluids required for each scenario was estimated. Up to 220 liters of fluid would be required to support a patient for all of the scenarios. When optimizing the volumes to support any single scenario, a total of 123 liters is required. Use of a water polishing system to produce sterile water for injection from potable supplies and on-station formulation of IV fluids results in a smaller mass and volume requirement for the Fluid Therapy Subsystem than carrying prepackaged bags of fluid.

Creager, Gerald J.↗

The efficiency of galaxy formation in clusters

Whether the observed trend in the efficiency of galaxy formation between poor and rich clusters is consistent with CDM-biased galaxy formation scenarios or with other hierarchical clustering scenarios described by a power-law fluctuation spectrum from galaxy to rich cluster scales in a universe with density parameter Omega = 1. A greater statistical correlation is found between galaxy and poor cluster masses than between galaxy and rich cluster masses due to the cluster proximity in filter length. This is the fundamental reason why galaxy formation is more efficient in poor clusters than in rich ones. It is found that the observed trend in the efficiency of galaxy formation and the observed values can be produced within the context of CDM-based galaxy formation scenarios or other scenarios involving flat spectra if X-ray luminous clusters are typically 2-3 sigma objects.

David, Laurence P.↗

The 3-D description of vertical current sheets with application to solar flares

Following a brief review of the processes which have been suggested for explaining the occurrence of solar flares we suggest a new scenario which builds on the achievements of the previous suggestion that the current sheets, which develop naturally in 3-D cases with gravity from impacting independent magnetic structures (i.e., approaching current systems), do not consist of horizontal currents but are instead predominantly vertical current systems. This suggestion is based on the fact that as the subphotospheric sources of the magnetic field displace the upper photosphere and lower chromosphere regions, where plasma beta is near unity, will experience predominantly horizontal mass motions which will lead to a distorted 3-D configurations of the magnetic field having stored free energy. In our scenario, a vertically flowing current sheet separates the plasma regions associated with either of the subphotospheric sources. This reflects the balanced tension of the two stressed fields which twist around each other. This leads naturally to a metastable or unstable situation as the twisted field emerges into a low beta region where vertical motions are not inhibited by gravity. In our flare scenario the impulsive energy release occurs, initially, not by reconnection but mainly by the rapid change of the magnetic field which has become unstable. During the impulsive phase the field lines contort in such way as to realign the electric current sheet into a minimum energy horizontal flow. This contortion produces very large electric fields which will accelerate particles. As the current evolves to a horizontal configuration the magnetic field expands vertically, which can be accompanied by eruptions of material. The instability of a horizontal current is well known and causes the magnetic field to undergo a rapid outward expansion. In our scenario, fast reconnection is not necessary to trigger the flare, however, slow reconnection would occur continuously in the current layer at the locations of potential flaring. During the initial rearrangement of the field strong plasma turbulence develops. Following the impulsive phase, the final current sheet will experience faster reconnection which we believe responsible for the gradual phase of the flare. The reconnection will dissipate part of the current and will produce sustained and extended heating in the flare region and in the postflare loops.

Fontenla, Juan M.↗

Lunar resource evaluation and mine site selection

Two scenarios in this evaluation of lunar mineral resources and the selection of possible mining and processing sites are considered. The first scenario assumes that no new surface or near-surface data will be available before site selection (presumably one of the Apollo sites). The second scenario assumes that additional surface geology data will have been obtained by a lunar orbiter mission, an unmanned sample return mission (or missions), and followup manned missions. Regardless of the scenario, once a potentially favorable mine site has been identified, a minimum amount of fundamental data is needed to assess the resources at that site and to evaluate its suitability for mining and downstream processing. Since much of the required data depends on the target mineral(s), information on the resource, its beneficiation, and the refining, smelting, and fabricating processes must be factored into the evaluation. The annual capacity and producing lifetime of the mine and its associated processing plant must be estimated before the resource reserves can be assessed. The available market for the product largely determines the capacity and lifetime of the mine. The Apollo 17 site is described as a possible mining site. The use of new sites is briefly addressed.

Bence, A. Edward↗

Pax permanent Martian base: Space architecture for the first human habitation on Mars, volume 5

America at the Threshold: Report of the Synthesis Group on America's Space Exploration Initiative (the 'Synthesis Report,' sometimes called the Stafford Report after its astronaut chair, published in 1991) recommended that NASA explore what it called four 'architectures,' i.e., four different scenarios for habitation on Mars. The Advanced Design Program in Space Architecture at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee supported this report and two of its scenarios--'Architecture 1' and 'Architecture 4'--during the spring of 1992. This report investigates the implications of different mission scenarios, the Martian environment, supporting technologies, and especially human factors and environment-behavior considerations for the design of the first permanent Martian base. The report is comprised of sections on mission analysis, implications of the Martian atmosphere and geologic environment, development of habitability design requirements based on environment-behavior and human factors research, and a full design proposed (concept design and design development) for the first permanent Martian base and habitat. The design is presented in terms of a base site plan, master plan based on a Mars direct scenario phased through IOC, and design development details of a complete Martian habitat for 18 crew members including all laboratory, mission control, and crew support spaces.

Huebner-Moths, Janis↗

Structural technology challenges for evolutionary growth of Space Station Freedom

A proposed evolutionary growth scenario for Space Station Freedom was defined recently by a NASA task force created to study requirements for a Human Exploration Initiative. The study was an initial response to President Bush's July 20, 1989 proposal to begin a long range program of human exploration of space including a permanently manned lunar base and a manned mission to Mars. This growth scenario evolves Freedom into a critical transportation node to support lunar and Mars missions. The growth scenario begins with the Assembly Complete configuration and adds structure, power, and facilities to support a Lunar Transfer Vehicle (LTV) verification flight. Evolutionary growth continues to support expendable, then reusable LTV operations, and finally, LTV and Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV) operations. The significant structural growth and additional operations creating new loading conditions will present new technological and structural design challenges in addition to the considerable technology requirements of the baseline Space Station Freedom program. Several structural design and technology issues of the baseline program are reviewed and related technology development required by the growth scenario is identified.

Doiron, Harold H.↗

A comparison of nuclear thermal rocket development cost and schedule for piloted missions to Mars

In Fiscal Year 1992, NASA led a team, including DOE, universities, and industry, that evaluated various schedule and cost scenarios for development of nuclear thermal rocket propulsion systems for piloted Mars exploration. This paper summarizes the results of two of these studies: (1) a so-called 'Fast Track' approach, that would result in technology readiness level 6 (TRL-6-system ground testing complete) by the year 2000, and (2) a slower program that results in TRL-6 by 2006. Both scenarios included a concurrent engineering approach. Costs and schedules for the two scenarios are compared. In addition to the six-year schedule delay, the TRL-6 in 2006 scenario is estimated to increase the cost of the program from $4.7 billion to $5.8 billion (in real-year dollars). On the positive side, the technical program should be better, since nuclear testing of fuel elements may be possible prior to concept down-select, resulting in a more informed decision.

Clark, John S.↗

Water abundance and accretion history of terrestrial planets

According to a widespread believe, Earth's water was either added in form of a late volatile-rich veneer or as we have argued repeatedly that of all the water which was added to the Earth only that portion remained which was added towards the end of accretion when the mean oxygen fugacity of the accreting material became so high that metallic iron could not exist any longer. Prior to this moment, all the water in the latter scenario would have been used up for the oxidation of iron. Fe + H2O yields FeO + H2. Huge quantities of hydrogen would continuously be produced in this scenario which escaped. In the same moment the hydrogen on its way to the surface would lead to an efficient degassing of the growing Earth's mantle. The fact that - assuming C1 abundances - the amount of iridium in the Earth's mantle agrees, within a factor of two with the total water inventory of the Earth's mantle and crust is taken as evidence for the validity of such a scenario. In both scenarios, the Earth's mantle would remain dry and devoid of other volatiles. Some species soluble in metallic iron like carbon and hydrogen will probably partly enter the core in some portions. It is generally assumed that today a considerable portion of the earth's total water inventory resides in the mantle. It is also clear that over the history of the Earth the water of the Earth's oceans has been recycled many times through the mantle. This is the consequence of plate subduction. In a similar way mantle convection was probably responsible to being water into the originally dry mantle. As a consequence, today the Earth is wet both inside and outside.

Waenke, H.↗

Minimal microwave anisotrophy from perturbations induced at late times

Aside from primordial gravitational instability of the cosmological fluid, various mechanisms have been proposed to generate large-scale structure at relatively late times, including, e.g., 'late-time' cosmological phase transitions. In these scenarios, it is envisioned that the universe is nearly homogeneous at the times of last scattering and that perturbations grow rapidly sometimes after the primordial plasma recombines. On this basis, it was suggested that large inhomogeneities could be generated while leaving relatively little imprint on the cosmic microwave background (MBR) anisotropy. In this paper, we calculate the minimal anisotropies possible in any 'late-time' scenario for structure formation, given the level of inhomogeneity observed at present. Since the growth of the inhomogeneity involves time-varying gravitational fields, these scenarios inevitably generate significant MBR anisotropy via the Sachs-Wolfe effect. Moreover, we show that the large-angle MBR anisotropy produced by the rapid post-recombination growth of inhomogeneity is generally greater than that produced by the same inhomogeneity growth via gravitational instability. In 'realistic' scenarios one can decrease the anisotropy compared to models with primordial adiabatic fluctuations, but only on very small angular scales. The value of any particular measure of the anisotropy can be made small in late-time models, but only by making the time-dependence of the gravitational field sufficiently 'pathological'.

Jaffe, Andrew H.↗