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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Weak Form Is Stronger Than You Think

The weak form is a ubiquitous, well-studied, and widely-utilized mathematical tool in modern computational and applied mathematics. In this work we provide a survey of both the history and recent developments for several fields in which the weak form can play a critical role. In particular, we highlight several recent advances in weak form versions of equation learning, parameter estimation, and coarse graining, which offer surprising noise robustness, accuracy, and computational efficiency. We note that this manuscript is a companion piece to our October 2024 SIAM News article of the same name. Here we provide more detailed explanations of mathematical developments as well as a more complete list of references. Lastly, we note that the software with which to reproduce the results in this manuscript is also available on our group's GitHub website https://github.com/MathBioCU .

26A33, 35D30, 62FXX, 62JXX, 65L09, 65M32, 68Q32,↗
NASA NTRS2001

Algorithms for Autonomous GS Orbit Determination and Formation Flying

This final report for our study of autonomous Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite orbit determination comprises two sections. The first is the Ph.D. dissertation written by Michael C. Moreau entitled, "GPS Receiver Architecture for Autonomous Navigation in High Earth Orbits." Dr. Moreau's work was conducted under both this project and a NASA GSRP. His dissertation describes the key design features of a receiver specifically designed for autonomous operation in high earth orbits (HEO). He focused on the implementation and testing of these features for the GSFC PiVoT receiver. The second part is a memo describing a robust method for autonomous initialization of the orbit estimate given very little a priori information and sparse measurements. This is a key piece missing in the design of receivers for HEO.

Moreau, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

New Developments in Quaternion Estimation from Vector Observations

This paper contains a critical comparison of estimators minimizing Wahba's loss function. Some new results are presented for the QUaternion ESTimator (QUEST) and EStimators of the Optimal Quaternion (ESOQ and ESOQ2) to avoid the computational burden of sequential rotations in these algorithms. None of these methods is as robust in principle as Davenport's q method or the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method, which are significantly slower. Robustness is only an issue for measurements with widely differing accuracies, so the fastest estimators, the modified ESOQ and ESOQ2, are well suited to sensors that track multiple stars with comparable accuracies. More robust forms of ESOQ and ESOQ2 are developed that are intermediate in speed.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS1989

Autonomous frequency domain identification: Theory and experiment

The analysis, design, and on-orbit tuning of robust controllers require more information about the plant than simply a nominal estimate of the plant transfer function. Information is also required concerning the uncertainty in the nominal estimate, or more generally, the identification of a model set within which the true plant is known to lie. The identification methodology that was developed and experimentally demonstrated makes use of a simple but useful characterization of the model uncertainty based on the output error. This is a characterization of the additive uncertainty in the plant model, which has found considerable use in many robust control analysis and synthesis techniques. The identification process is initiated by a stochastic input u which is applied to the plant p giving rise to the output. Spectral estimation (h = P sub uy/P sub uu) is used as an estimate of p and the model order is estimated using the produce moment matrix (PMM) method. A parametric model unit direction vector p is then determined by curve fitting the spectral estimate to a rational transfer function. The additive uncertainty delta sub m = p - unit direction vector p is then estimated by the cross spectral estimate delta = P sub ue/P sub uu where e = y - unit direction vectory y is the output error, and unit direction vector y = unit direction vector pu is the computed output of the parametric model subjected to the actual input u. The experimental results demonstrate the curve fitting algorithm produces the reduced-order plant model which minimizes the additive uncertainty. The nominal transfer function estimate unit direction vector p and the estimate delta of the additive uncertainty delta sub m are subsequently available to be used for optimization of robust controller performance and stability.

Yam, Yeung↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Approach to Predict Hydrogeological Parameters Using Shear Waves from the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves Method

For near-surface contaminant characterization, the accurate prediction of hydrogeological parameters in anisotropic and heterogeneous environments has been a challenge since the last decades. However, recent advances in near-surface geophysics have facilitated the use of geophysical data for hydrogeological characterization in the last few years. A pseudo 3-D high resolution P-wave shallow seismic reflection survey was performed at the P Reactor Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina in order to delineate and predict migration pathways of a large contaminant plume including trichloroethylene. This contaminant plume originates from the northwest section of the reactor facility that is located within the Upper Atlantic Coastal Plain. The data were collected with 40 Hz geophones, an accelerated weight-drop as seismic source and 1 m receiver spacing with near- and far-offsets of 0.5 and 119.5 m, respectively. In such areas with near-surface contaminants, a detailed subsurface characterization of the vadose zone hydraulic parameters is very important. Indeed, an inexpensive method of deriving such parameters by the use of seismic reflection surveys is beneficial, and our approach uses the relationship between seismic velocity and hydrogeological parameters together with empirical observations relating porosity to permeability and hydraulic conductivity. Shear wave velocity ( V s ) profiles were estimated from surface wave dispersion analysis of the seismic reflection data and were subsequently used to derive hydraulic parameters such as porosity, permeability, and hydraulic conductivity. Additional geophysical data including core samples, vertical seismic profiling, surface electrical resistivity tomography, natural gamma and electrical resistivity logs allowed for a robust assessment of the validity and geological significance of the estimated V s and hydrogeological models. The results demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for the upper 15 m of shallow unconsolidated sediments even though the survey design parameters were not optimal for surface wave analysis due to the higher than desired frequency geophones.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS1995

Testing the performance of feedback concatenated decoder with a nonideal receiver

One of the inherent problems in testing the feedback concatenated decoder (FCD) at our operating symbol signal-to-noise ratio (SSNR) is that the bit-error rate is so low that we cannot measure it directly through simulations in a reasonable time period. This article proposes a test procedure that will give a reasonable estimate of the expected losses even though the number of frames tested is much smaller than needed for a direct measurement. This test procedure provides an organized robust methodology for extrapolating small amounts of test data to give reasonable estimates of FCD loss increments at unmeasurable miniscule error rates. Using this test procedure, we have run some preliminary tests on the FCD to quantify the losses due to the fact that the input signal contains multiplicative non-white non-Gaussian noises resulting from the buffered telemetry demodulator (BTD). Besides the losses in the BTD, we have observed additional loss increments of 0.3 to 0.4 dB at the output of the FCD for several test cases with loop signal-to-noise ratios (SNR's) lower than 20 dB. In contrast, these loss increments were less than 0.1 dB for a test case with the subcarrier loop SNR at about 28 dB. This test procedure can be applied to more extensive test data to determine thresholds on the loop SNRs above which the FCD will not suffer substantial loss increments.

Feria, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution, appendix 2

This thesis reviews the technique established to clear channels in the Power Spectral Estimate by applying linear combinations of well known window functions to the autocorrelation function. The need for windowing the auto correlation function is due to the fact that the true auto correlation is not generally used to obtain the Power Spectral Estimate. When applied, the windows serve to reduce the effect that modifies the auto correlation by truncating the data and possibly the autocorrelation has on the Power Spectral Estimate. It has been shown in previous work that a single channel has been cleared, allowing for the detection of a small peak in the presence of a large peak in the Power Spectral Estimate. The utility of this method is dependent on the robustness of it on different input situations. We extend the analysis in this paper, to include clearing up to three channels. We examine the relative positions of the spikes to each other and also the effect of taking different percentages of lags of the auto correlation in the Power Spectral Estimate. This method could have application wherever the Power Spectrum is used. An example of this is beam forming for source location, where a small target can be located next to a large target. Other possibilities extend into seismic data processing. As the method becomes more automated other applications may present themselves.

Ioup, George E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating carrying capacity for juvenile salmon using quantile random forest models

Abstract Establishing robust methods and metrics to evaluate habitat quality is critical for the recovery of endangered Pacific salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp.). A variety of modeling approaches are used for status and trend monitoring of anadromous species throughout the Pacific Northwest, USA, but current methods may fail to capture the complex relationship between fish and habitat and are often limited in predictive power beyond specific watersheds. Further, the focus on species distribution and abundance is not easily manipulated to predict carrying capacity and traditional stock‐recruitment analyses are reliant on long‐term data which are not always available. In this study, we developed a quantile random forest model to provide estimates of habitat carrying capacity for Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) parr during the summer months, at both the site and watershed scale. Quantile random forest models allow for the consideration of noisy data, correlated variables, and non‐linear relationships: common features in fish–habitat datasets. We leveraged Columbia Habitat Monitoring Program data to select habitat co‐variates and predict capacity at those sites. We also identified a set of globally available attributes to extrapolate capacity estimate predictions throughout wadeable streams within the Columbia River basin. Total capacity estimates for watersheds closely matched estimates from alternative fish productivity models. Carrying capacity estimates based on quantile random forest models, like those presented here, provide managers a framework to guide the identification, prioritization, and development of habitat rehabilitation actions to recover salmon populations.

See, Kevin E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Robust Control Design for Large Space Structures

The control design problem for the class of future spacecraft referred to as large space structures (LSS) is by now well known. The issue is the reduced order control of a very high order, lightly damped system with uncertain system parameters, particularly in the high frequency modes. A design methodology which incorporates robustness considerations as part of the design process is presented. Combining pertinent results from multivariable systems theory and optimal control and estimation, LQG eigenstructure assignment and LQG frequency shaping, were used to improve singular value robustness measures in the presence of control and observation spillover.

Eastman, W. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

Herein, this article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Active Learning for Failure Estimation of TRISO Nuclear Fuel

The Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel proposed to be used for multiple modern nuclear technologies. Therefore, characterizing its safety is vital for the reliable operation of nuclear technologies. However, the TRISO fuel failure probabilities are small and the computational model is time consuming to evaluate them using traditional Monte Carlo-type approaches. In the paper, we present a multifidelity active learning approach to efficiently estimate small failure probabilities given an expensive computational model. Active learning suggests the next best training set for optimal subsequent predictive performance and multifidelity modeling uses cheaper low-fidelity models to approximate the high-fidelity model output. After presenting the multifidelity active learning approach, we apply it to efficiently predict TRISO failure probability and make comparisons to the reference results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Archetype-based Redshift Estimation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Survey

We present a computationally efficient galaxy archetype-based redshift estimation and spectral classification method for the Dark Energy Survey Instrument (DESI) survey. The DESI survey currently relies on a redshift fitter and spectral classifier using a linear combination of principal component analysis–derived templates, which is very efficient in processing large volumes of DESI spectra within a short time frame. However, this method occasionally yields unphysical model fits for galaxies and fails to adequately absorb calibration errors that may still be occasionally visible in the reduced spectra. Our proposed approach improves upon this existing method by refitting the spectra with carefully generated physical galaxy archetypes combined with additional terms designed to absorb data reduction defects and provide more physical models to the DESI spectra. We test our method on an extensive data set derived from the survey validation (SV) and Year 1 (Y1) data of DESI. Our findings indicate that the new method delivers marginally better redshift success for SV tiles while reducing catastrophic redshift failure by 10%–30%. At the same time, results from millions of targets from the main survey show that our model has relatively higher redshift success and purity rates (0.5%–0.8% higher) for galaxy targets while having similar success for QSOs. These improvements also demonstrate that the main DESI redshift pipeline is generally robust. Additionally, it reduces the false-positive redshift estimation by 5%–40% for sky fibers. We also discuss the generic nature of our method and how it can be extended to other large spectroscopic surveys, along with possible future improvements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1994

Progress in navigation filter estimate fusion and its application to spacecraft rendezvous

A new derivation of an algorithm which fuses the outputs of two Kalman filters is presented within the context of previous research in this field. Unlike other works, this derivation clearly shows the combination of estimates to be optimal, minimizing the trace of the fused covariance matrix. The algorithm assumes that the filters use identical models, and are stable and operating optimally with respect to their own local measurements. Evidence is presented which indicates that the error ellipsoid derived from the covariance of the optimally fused estimate is contained within the intersections of the error ellipsoids of the two filters being fused. Modifications which reduce the algorithm's data transmission requirements are also presented, including a scalar gain approximation, a cross-covariance update formula which employs only the two contributing filters' autocovariances, and a form of the algorithm which can be used to reinitialize the two Kalman filters. A sufficient condition for using the optimally fused estimates to periodically reinitialize the Kalman filters in this fashion is presented and proved as a theorem. When these results are applied to an optimal spacecraft rendezvous problem, simulated performance results indicate that the use of optimally fused data leads to significantly improved robustness to initial target vehicle state errors. The following applications of estimate fusion methods to spacecraft rendezvous are also described: state vector differencing, and redundancy management.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2003

First Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe(WMAP)Observations: The Angular Power Spectrum

We present the angular power spectrum derived from the first-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) sky maps. We study a variety of power spectrum estimation methods and data combinations and demonstrate that the results are robust. The data are modestly contaminated by diffuse Galactic foreground emission, but we show that a simple Galactic template model is sufficient to remove the signal. Point sources produce a modest contamination in the low frequency data. After masking approximately 700 known bright sources from the maps, we estimate residual sources contribute approximately 3500 mu sq Kappa at 41 GHz, and approximately 130 mu sq Kappa at 94 GHz, to the power spectrum [iota(iota + 1)C(sub iota)/2pi] at iota = 1000. Systematic errors are negligible compared to the (modest) level of foreground emission. Our best estimate of the power spectrum is derived from 28 cross-power spectra of statistically independent channels. The final spectrum is essentially independent of the noise properties of an individual radiometer. The resulting spectrum provides a definitive measurement of the CMB power spectrum, with uncertainties limited by cosmic variance, up to iota approximately 350. The spectrum clearly exhibits a first acoustic peak at iota = 220 and a second acoustic peak at iota approximately 540, and it provides strong support for adiabatic initial conditions. Researchers have analyzed the CT(sup Epsilon) power spectrum, and present evidence for a relatively high optical depth, and an early period of cosmic reionization. Among other things, this implies that the temperature power spectrum has been suppressed by approximately 30% on degree angular scales, due to secondary scattering.

Hinshaw, G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

In this paper, we present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s –1 Mpc –1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to Σ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = –1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The spectra of IceCube neutrino candidate sources – I. Optical spectroscopy of blazars

ABSTRACT There is mounting evidence that ultra-energetic neutrinos of astrophysical origin may be associated with blazars. Here, we investigate a unique sample of 47 blazars, ∼20 of which could be new neutrino sources. In particular, we focus on 17 objects of yet unknown redshift, for which we present optical spectroscopy secured at the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the ESO Very Large Telescope. We find all sources but one (a quasar) to be BL Lac objects. For nine targets we are able to determine the redshift (0.09 < z < 1.6), while for the others we set a lower limit on it, based on either the robust detection of intervening absorption systems or on an estimation derived from the absence of spectral signatures of the host galaxy. In some spectra, we detect forbidden and semiforbidden emission lines with luminosities in the range 1040–1041 erg s−1. We also report on the spectroscopy of seven blazars possibly associated with energetic neutrinos that partially meet the criteria of our sample and are discussed in the Appendix. These results represent the starting point of our investigation into the real nature of these objects and their likelihood of being neutrino emitters.

Paiano, Simona↗
DOE OSTI2023

The spectra of IceCube Neutrino (SIN) candidate sources – III. Optical spectroscopy and source characterization of the full sample

A correlation between astrophysical high-energy neutrinos and blazars has been suggested by various authors. In particular, a likely association between IceCube events and intermediate- and high-energy peaked BL Lac objects has led to a sample of 47 objects having a high probability of being neutrino sources. In the first paper of this series we reported optical spectroscopy of 17 objects, which together with data taken from the literature covered 80 per cent of the sample. Here, we present spectroscopy obtained at large aperture telescopes of a further 17 objects (plus four additional targets), which completes the sample coverage. For 12 objects we are able to determine the redshift (0.07 < z < 1.6), while for the others we set a lower limit on it, based on either the robust detection of intervening absorption systems or on an estimation derived from the absence of spectral signatures of the host galaxy. With these new data we expand and reinforce the main results of our previous papers, namely the fact that in terms of their broad-band properties our sources appear to be indistinguishable from the rest of the blazar population and the relatively large (>34 per cent and possibly as high as 80 per cent) fraction of masquerading BL Lac objects, for which the low equivalent width of the emission lines is due to the brightness of the boosted continuum, rather than being an intrinsic property, in our sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗