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At least 523 records · Page 29

Water-enhanced bifunctional metal-acid catalyst for C=C bond hydrogenation

Water-assisted proton shuttling can promote hydrogenation of polar functional groups, and it is generally believed that such an effect can be hardly applied to hydrogenation of C═C bonds due to the latter's weak interaction with water. Here, we report density functional theory calculations and metadynamics simulations, through which we show a dynamic bifunctional metal–acid site that can be transformed, when interacting with water, into an active configuration for unexpected water-enhanced proton shuttling to C═C bonds. In particular, we investigated B(OH)3 anchored to a Ni catalyst for hydrogenation of cyclohexene in an organic solvent, which showed in experiments an increased rate by 100 times when adding a small amount of water. Metadynamics simulations suggest that a B(OH)3–H2O cluster can form on Ni(111), which promotes the proton transfer in the first hydrogenation step, while the second hydrogenation is still driven by metal-mediated direct H-transfer. The recovery process of B(OH)3–H2O also involves a proton shuttling step. We find that the boric species on the surface serves as an electron reservoir and carries the negative charge to balance the positive charge in the proton transfer steps. This work thus provides fundamental insights into this dynamic transformation process of the metal–acid interface, which can in principle be applied to many other bifunctional systems for hydrogenating non-polar unsaturated groups by engineering the interfacial charge separation.

Sun, Shoutian↗

Viscous Behavior of Clay‐Rich Rocks and Its Role in Focused Fluid Flow

Abstract Focused fluid flow is common in sedimentary basins worldwide, where flow structures often penetrate through sandy reservoir rocks, and clay‐rich caprocks. To better understand the mechanisms forming such structures, the impacts of the viscoelastic deformation and strongly nonlinear porosity‐dependent permeability of clay‐rich materials are assessed from an experimental and numerical modeling perspective. The experimental methods to measure the poroviscoelastic and transport properties of intact and remolded shale have been developed, and the experimental data is used to constrain the numerical simulations. It is demonstrated that viscoelastic deformation combined with nonlinear porosity‐dependent permeability triggers the development of localized flow channels, often imaged as seismic chimneys. The permeability inside a channel increases by several orders of magnitude compared to the background values. In addition, the propagation time scale and the channel size strongly depend on the material properties of the fluid and the rock. The time‐dependent behavior of the clay‐rich rock may play a key role in the long‐term integrity of the subsurface formations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seawater Acidification and Bubble Plume Dispersion from Accidental Subsea CO 2 Pipeline Rupture: A Multiphase CFD Study

If a CO 2 reservoir or transmission pipeline were to leak, both the surrounding ecology and maritime traffic safety could be put at risk. To better understand and prepare for this risk, multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models were built in ANSYS Fluent to capture the behavior of a leak once it enters the water. A 3D Eulerian–Eulerian model was used for validation, while a simplified 2D model was applied to simulate conditions at a 50-m depth. The models integrate bubble dynamics, gas holdup, CO 2 dissolution, dissolved species transport, and seawater acidification into a unified CFD framework. Mass transfer was calculated using the Hughmark correlation, and local seawater temperature and salinity were factored in to determine dissociation behavior and the relevant Henry’s Law constant. To confirm the 3D model’s accuracy, results were checked against two experimental datasets: the QICS field study and the Hauser Tank experiments. The team also modeled a hypothetical release scenario at the High Island 10L site and compared the results with earlier published work. The results show that at a depth of 50 m, the surrounding water column can completely absorb a CO 2 release at a rate of 35 kg/s, since the gas dissolves into the seawater as it rises toward the surface. Beyond confirming this mitigation capacity, the simulations shed light on how a leak would actually unfold in the environment, including the shape and movement of the rising bubble plume, how much CO 2 dissolves along the way, and the resulting shifts in seawater pH and pCO 2 . Together, this provides a practical framework for assessing how CO 2 leaks could affect marine environments in the Gulf of Mexico.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics and observational signatures of core-collapse supernovae with central engines: hydrodynamics simulations with Monte Carlo post-processing

A long-lived central engine embedded in expanding supernova ejecta can alter the dynamics and observational signatures of the event, producing an unusually luminous, energetic, and/or rapidly evolving transient. We use 2D hydrodynamics simulations to study the effect of a central energy source, varying the amount, rate, and isotropy of the energy deposition. We post-process the results with a time-dependent Monte Carlo radiation transport code to extract observational signatures. The engine excavates a bubble at the centre of the ejecta, which becomes Rayleigh–Taylor unstable. Sufficiently powerful engines are able to break through the edge of the bubble and accelerate, shred, and compositionally mix the entire ejecta. The breakout of the engine-driven wind occurs at distinct rupture points, and the outflowing high-velocity gas may eventually give rise to radio emission. The dynamical impact of the engine leads to faster rising optical light curves, with photon escape facilitated by the faster expansion of the ejecta and the opening of low-density channels. For models with strong engines, the spectra are initially hot and featureless, but later evolve to resemble those of broad-line Ic supernovae. Under certain conditions, line emission from ionized, low-velocity material near the centre of the ejecta may be able to escape and produce narrow emission similar to that seen in interacting supernovae. We discuss how variability in the engine energy reservoir and injection rate could give rise to a heterogeneous set of events spanning multiple observational classes, including the fast blue optical transients, broad-line Ic supernovae, and superluminous supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of energetic and enzymatic limitations on microbial carbon cycling in soils

Soil organic carbon (SOC) constitutes an important reservoir in the global carbon cycle that is vulnerable to transformation and loss from land use and climate change. Anoxic conditions protect SOC from microbial degradation through limiting the energetics of respiration and inhibiting extracellular oxidative enzymes. Given growing evidence of prevalent anaerobic microsites in upland soils, we designed an experiment testing the development of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) signatures of energetic and enzymatic limitations on microbial carbon utilization across simulated soil aggregates or peds. Reactors comprised a soil column “aggregate” underlying an advective “macropore” channel. Soils received downward diffusive inputs of aerated porewater media with added nitrate, sulfate, or no amendment—where native ferrihydrite served as dominant anaerobic terminal electron acceptor (TEA). After 40 days, added nitrate resulted in highest bulk respiration and DOC production while sulfate did not differ from the control. Nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC) was higher (more favorable) with added TEAs at soil surfaces and decreased with depth, while NOSC in the non-amended soil remained lower and constant with depth. DOC generally increased with depth, which along with decreasing NOSC values indicates joint electron-donor and acceptor control over respiration energetics. Of all organic compound classes, only the relative abundance of phenolics increased between 0 and 0.5 cm depth, which aligns with the oxic-anoxic transition and suggests oxidative enzyme inhibition. Furthermore, our results suggest that oxygen limitation within upland soil aggregates may preserve SOC via both energetic and enzymatic C protection mechanisms, which are vulnerable upon exposure to oxygen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A post-merger enhancement only in star-forming Type 2 Seyfert galaxies: the deep learning view

ABSTRACT Supermassive black holes require a reservoir of cold gas at the centre of their host galaxy in order to accrete and shine as active galactic nuclei (AGN). Major mergers have the ability to drive gas rapidly inwards, but observations trying to link mergers with AGN have found mixed results due to the difficulty of consistently identifying galaxy mergers in surveys. This study applies deep learning to this problem, using convolutional neural networks trained to identify simulated post-merger galaxies from survey-realistic imaging. This provides a fast and repeatable alternative to human visual inspection. Using this tool, we examine a sample of ∼8500 Seyfert 2 galaxies ($L[\mathrm{O\, {\small III}}] \sim 10^{38.5 - 42}$ erg s−1) at z < 0.3 in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and find a merger fraction of $2.19_{-0.17}^{+0.21}$ per cent compared with inactive control galaxies, in which we find a merger fraction of $2.96_{-0.20}^{+0.26}$ per cent, indicating an overall lack of mergers among AGN hosts compared with controls. However, matching the controls to the AGN hosts in stellar mass and star formation rate reveals that AGN hosts in the star-forming blue cloud exhibit a ∼2 × merger enhancement over controls, while those in the quiescent red sequence have significantly lower relative merger fractions, leading to the observed overall deficit due to the differing M*–SFR distributions. We conclude that while mergers are not the dominant trigger of all low-luminosity, obscured AGN activity in the nearby Universe, they are more important to AGN fuelling in galaxies with higher cold gas mass fractions as traced through star formation.

Avirett-Mackenzie, M. S.↗

Resolving experimental biases in the interpretation of diffusion experiments with a user-friendly numerical reactive transport approach

The reactive transport code CrunchClay was used to derive effective diffusion coefficients (D e ), clay porosities (ε), and adsorption distribution coefficients (K D ) from through-diffusion data while considering accurately the influence of unavoidable experimental biases on the estimation of these diffusion parameters. These effects include the presence of filters holding the solid sample in place, the variations in concentration gradients across the diffusion cell due to sampling events, the impact of tubing/dead volumes on the estimation of diffusive fluxes and sample porosity, and the effects of O-ring-filter setups on the delivery of solutions to the clay packing. Doing so, the direct modeling of the measurements of (radio)tracer concentrations in reservoirs is more accurate than that of data converted directly into diffusive fluxes. While the above-mentioned effects have already been described individually in the literature, a consistent modeling approach addressing all these issues at the same time has never been described nor made easily available to the community. A graphical user interface, CrunchEase, was created, which supports the user by automating the creation of input files, the running of simulations, and the extraction and comparison of data and simulation results. While a classical model considering an effective diffusion coefficient, a porosity and a solid/solution distribution coefficient (D e –ε–K D ) may be implemented in any reactive transport code, the development of CrunchEase makes it easy to apply by experimentalists without a background in reactive transport modeling. CrunchEase makes it also possible to transition more easily from a D e –ε–K D modeling approach to a state-of-the-art process-based understanding modeling approach using the full capabilities of CrunchClay, which include surface complexation modeling and a multi-porosity description of the clay packing with charged diffuse layers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Priming mechanisms providing plants and microbes access to mineral-associated organic matter

Mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) is considered a stable reservoir for soil nutrients that influences long-term soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. However, recent experimental and theoretical evidence shows that root exudates may mobilize MAOM, thereby providing plants and microbes access to a large and N-rich pool. Given the mechanisms underlying MAOM C and N mobilization remain largely untested, we examined direct and indirect pathways by which root exudates destabilize this nutrient pool in laboratory mesocosms. We simulated root exudation with 13 C-labeled oxalic acid to test whether root exudates are directly capable of mobilizing MAOM from mineral surfaces; and with 13 C-labeled glucose to test whether indirect stimulation of microbial and extracellular enzyme activity leads to MAOM decomposition. We also tested the potential for oxalic acid and glucose to mobilize MAOM in an additional subset of sterilized soils to clarify the potential for non-microbial pathways of MAOM destabilization. Over the course of the 12-day MAOM incubation with and without simulated exudates, we measured C cycling (CO 2 respiration rates, 13 C–CO 2 efflux), N cycling (inorganic N pools, gross N mineralization) and related microbial processes (enzyme activities and microbial community composition via phospholipid fatty acid analysis). Both of the simulated root exudates enhanced MAOM-C mineralization, with cumulative respiration increasing 35–89% relative to the water-only control. Likewise, glucose additions enhanced the production of an exo-cellulase and a chitinase by up to 130% and 39%, respectively, while oxalic acid enhanced oxidative enzyme activities up to 91% greater than control rates. We observed a positive association between glucose-induced shifts in enzyme activities, MAOM-C mineralization, and gross ammonification. Oxalic acid additions were associated with initial increases in fungal relative abundance and in sterile soils appeared to stimulate the release of metals and dissolved organic nitrogen into exchangeable pools. Our results indicate that common root exudates, like glucose and oxalic acid, can significantly increase the turnover and potential release of C and N from MAOM through indirect (e.g., enzyme induction) and direct (e.g., mobilization of metal oxides) mechanisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology for Exploring Water and Hydropower Operating Criteria That Simultaneously Improve Economic and Environmental Considerations

Despite the reliability and flexibility of hydropower, the operation of hydroelectric power plants may have significant impacts on the downstream river system, including its water stage, sediment transport, and water temperature, ultimately affecting the ecology. To address these challenges, there is a need to identify water scheduling patterns that improve both hydropower economics and the environment relative to current operations. This paper presents a new methodology to explore promising operational criteria/rules that can achieve such improvements. Typical environmental impact statements and relicensing processes generally perform detailed site-specific analyses of a few alternatives that focus on reservoir water release operating rules and their associated environmental impacts. In contrast, the methodology presented in this article uses a widely applicable approach that explores a much larger solution space. This large set of potential alternatives can be represented in a multidimensional space for which one axis represents the economic value and the other axis quantify individual environmental impacts (e.g., sediment transport and fish growth), and they are explored via two approaches: a Monte Carlo simulation that identifies “win–win” alternatives and a multi-objective optimization problem that identifies Pareto-optimal alternatives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Self-consistent dispersal puts tight constraints on the spatiotemporal organization of species-rich metacommunities

Dispersal can be critical to the maintenance of ecosystems as it allows local communities to be recolonized after extinction. However, it remains unclear whether the extinction-mitigating effect of dispersal persists when the number of competing species is large. Based on a spatially explicit mathematical description of metacommunities, we show that when many species coexist, each species operates near its extinction threshold, barely surviving due to dispersal. This has general consequences for spatiotemporal abundance patterns. For short-range dispersal, species organize into fractal spatiotemporal extinction patterns characteristic of a directed percolation phase transition. As species approach their extinction threshold, biodiversity is very sensitive to perturbation, suggesting that dispersal within a metacommunity puts tight constraints on the robustness and evolution of species-rich metacommunities. Biodiversity is often attributed to a dynamic equilibrium between the immigration and extinction of species. This equilibrium forms a common basis for studying ecosystem assembly from a static reservoir of migrants—the mainland. Yet, natural ecosystems often consist of many coupled communities (i.e., metacommunities), and migration occurs between these communities. The pool of migrants then depends on what is sustained in the ecosystem, which, in turn, depends on the dynamic migrant pool. This chicken-and-egg problem of survival and dispersal is poorly understood in communities of many competing species, except for the neutral case—the “unified neutral theory of biodiversity.” Employing spatiotemporal simulations and mean-field analyses, we show that self-consistent dispersal puts rather tight constraints on the dynamic migration–extinction equilibrium. When the number of species is large, species are pushed to the edge of their global extinction, even when competition is weak. As a consequence, the overall diversity is highly sensitive to perturbations in demographic parameters, including growth and dispersal rates. When dispersal is short range, the resulting spatiotemporal abundance patterns follow broad scale-free distributions that correspond to a directed percolation phase transition. The qualitative agreement of our results for short-range and long-range dispersal suggests that this self-organization process is a general property of species-rich metacommunities. Our study shows that self-sustaining metacommunities are highly sensitive to environmental change and provides insights into how biodiversity can be rescued and maintained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Tool Development and Validation for Solar Industry Process Heat Using Particle Thermal Energy Storage

U.S. industry sectors used 26.2 quadrillion Btu and accounted for 33% of total energy consumption in 2021 according to the Energy Information Agency. Industrial process heat accounts for 70% of industrial energy use with application temperatures ranging from 60 degrees -1100 degrees C. Industry processes, heavily relying on fossil fuels of cheap coal or natural gas, differ widely in operating conditions and load requirements which makes them difficult to standardize and imposes great challenges in decarbonization. Industry processes require reliable energy supply and vary widely in temperature ranges. Storing energy from renewable sources is necessary to improve reliability and to mitigate renewable intermittency when replacing carbon fuel-based heat supplies to achieve energy savings and reduce emissions. To this end, we have developed a particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) technology using low-cost and highly stable silica sand as a storage medium. The economic and performance-based analysis is key for renewable energy sources to reliably supply industry process heat and ultimately displace fossil fuels for decarbonization. The diversified industrial processes need case-by-case analysis and design. Therefore, an adaptive modeling tool is key for renewable power with energy storage to meet industry demands. Thus, a modeling tool to simulate a solar industry process heat system using the particle TES has been developed using the object-oriented equation-based language Modelica and the commercial platform of Modelon Impact. The Modelica-based software tool provides a general simulation environment for the design of reliable solar energy sources integrated with TES for various industrial process applications at different temperatures for economic competence with fossil fuels such as coal and natural gases. It uses both customized and standard component modeling modules in Modelon libraries for the flexibility to be adapted to a specific energy demand application. The particle TES system establishes a uniform energy supply platform with an efficient heat exchanger and particle thermal energy reservoir integrated with renewable powers. The particle TES system can provide a wide temperature range and can have a large storage temperature difference that increases storage energy density; therefore, it can be an adaptable energy storage system integrated with renewable power to supply 24/7 heat for industry decarbonization.

concentrated solar thermal↗

Atmospheric clearing of solid-particle debris using femtosecond filaments

Through nonlinear self-focusing, femtosecond pulses can propagate several kilometers beyond diffraction limits, forming an ionization channel in air known as a laser filaments. It has been demonstrated that in the wake of the filament, aerosols can be effectively cleared to improve the transmission of subsequent laser pulses or secondary light sources, pertinent to applications in atmospheric sensing. However, the current understanding of aerosol clearing is founded on interactions with droplets to simulate fogs and clouds and thus does not extend to solid particles or atmospheric debris. Using optical trapping, we isolate both graphite and silica microparticles and directly measure the subsequent displacement caused by the filament using time-resolved shadowgraphy. The shock wave from the filament is demonstrated to propel particles away from the filament, directly contributing to atmospheric debris clearing. Particles exposed to the laser light in either the intense filament core or the surrounding energy reservoir are axially displaced along the beam path. Furthermore, it is found that the optomechanical properties of the particle largely influence the axial displacement induced by laser exposure through mechanisms such as radiation pressure, mass ejection from ablation or optical damage, and particle deagglomeration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Droplet bioprinting of acellular and cell-laden structures at high-resolutions

Advances in digital light projection(DLP) based (bio) printers have made printing of intricate structures at high resolution possible using a wide range of photosensitive bioinks. A typical setup of a DLP bioprinter includes a vat or reservoir filled with liquid bioink, which presents challenges in terms of cost associated with bioink synthesis, high waste, and gravity-induced cell settling, contaminations, or variation in bioink viscosity during the printing process. Here, we report a vat-free, low-volume, waste-free droplet bioprinting method capable of rapidly printing 3D soft structures at high resolution using model bioinks and model cells. A multiphase many-body dissipative particle dynamics model was developed to simulate the dynamic process of droplet-based DLP printing and elucidate the roles of surface wettability and bioink viscosity. Process variables such as light intensity, photo-initiator concentration, and bioink formulations were optimized to print 3D soft structures (∼0.4–3 kPa) with a typical layer thickness of 50 µm, an XY resolution of 38 ± 1.5 μm and Z resolution of 237 ± 5.4 µm. To demonstrate its versatility, droplet bioprinting was used to print a range of acellular 3D structures such as a lattice cube, a Mayan pyramid, a heart-shaped structure, and a microfluidic chip with endothelialized channels. Droplet bioprinting, performed using model C3H/10T1/2 cells, exhibited high viability (90%) and cell spreading. Additionally, microfluidic devices with internal channel networks lined with endothelial cells showed robust monolayer formation while osteoblast-laden constructs showed mineral deposition upon osteogenic induction. Overall, droplet bioprinting could be a low-cost, no-waste, easy-to-use, method to make customized bioprinted constructs for a range of biomedical applications.

DLP↗

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advanced supercritical water-based process concepts for treatment and beneficial reuse of brine in oil/gas production

Produced water generated from oil/gas reservoirs is a cost burden for oil/gas producers, with over 21 billion barrels of the waste generated in 2019. Average disposal costs range from 4.00–8.00·bbl -1 , with up to 20·bbl -1 spent on transportation alone. Dissolved solids content is a contributing factor which limits economical treatment options for this waste stream. This work proposes a novel technique that can handle high salinity waste, employing favorable properties past the critical point of water. In this study, process simulation of two supercritical water desalination (SCWD) scenarios was completed. Zero liquid discharge (ZLD) and brine concentration operating scenarios were compared, weighing the associated economics and benefits for each case. The results were shown to be economically feasible for brines with a high dissolved solids content, ranging from 3.49 to 17.28·bbl -1 in an expanded sensitivity analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transforming microseismic clouds into near real-time visualization of the growing hydraulic fracture

SUMMARY Microseismic observations during unconventional reservoir stimulation are typically seen as a proxy for clusters of hydraulic fractures and the extent of the stimulated reservoir. Such straightforward interpretation is often misleading and fails to provide a physically reasonable image of the fracturing process. This paper demonstrates the application of a physics-based machine learning algorithm which enables a rapid and accurate fracture mapping from the microseismic data. Our training and validation data set relies on a history-matched geomechanical modelling workflow implemented in GEOS software for the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 1 (HFTS-1) project. For this study we augmented the simulated fracture growth through geostatistical modelling of induced seismicity, so that the synthetic microseismic catalogue matches the main statistical properties of the field observations. We formulated the problem of mapping the actual fracture in the clutter of events to parallel common video segmentation workflows: several past video frames (microseismic density snapshots) are passed through a deep convolutional network to classify whether a given voxel is associated with a fracture or intact rock. We found that for accurate fracture mapping, the network’s input and architecture must be augmented to incorporate the fluid injection parameters (pressure, rate, concentration of proppant, and location of the perforation within the cluster). The error rate for the network reached as little as 10 per cent of the fracture area, while a conventional microseismic interpretation approach yielded ∼300 per cent. Our approach also yields must faster predictions than conventional methods (minutes instead of weeks), and could enable engineers to make rapid decisions regarding engineering parameters (pumping rate, viscosity) in real time during stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nanoconfined Grain Boundaries Increase the Conductivity of Polycrystalline Molecular Crystals

Soft-solid molecular crystals consist of crystalline grains and fluid grain boundaries (GBs) that enhance the grain binding and transport of Li + ions between the grains. The total ionic conductivity consists of ion migration in both the grains and GBs. To unravel these contributions in adiponitrile (Adpn):LiPF 6 molecular crystals, the GB volume fraction was varied by changing the size of the crystals and the Adpn:LiPF 6 molar ratio. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations indicate that ion motion was subdiffusive in the grains and “well-diffusive” in the GBs, with GBs characterized as disordered nanoconfined regions of higher charge carrier concentration (∼1 M) than in saturated Adpn:LiPF 6 solutions (0.04 M), and Li + ions predominantly solvated by cyano groups with few contact ion pairs. The diffusivity in the GBs is at least an order of magnitude higher than that in the crystalline grains. The emergent picture is the grains as a reservoir of ions that migrate to faster-conducting GBs.

Crystals↗

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗