SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “reservoir potential”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Repository of HydroSMADE: Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites

This repository presents HydroSMADE—Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble, a new open dataset that provides monthly hydropower availability for 1,593 existing and 124,333 potential sites worldwide over the period 1950–2100. The dataset is generated by using a global hydrologic model (Xanthos) with explicit representation of hydropower operation. Specifically, HydroSMADE distinguishes between storage and diversion sites, applies optimized operating rules, and incorporates site-specific characteristics such as generation capacity, maximum turbine flow, and reservoir storage. Driven by bias-corrected meteorological inputs, the data is provided for 30 alternative future scenarios. The scenarios consist of the full factorial combination of three standard CMIP6 atmospheric forcing pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and ten CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, EC-Earth3, CanESM5, MIROC6, CNRM-ESM2-1, UKESM1-0-LL, and CNRM-CM6-1. The repository contains a total of 122 files: a text file (readme.txt) containing a brief description of the included data, a CSV file containing site attributes, and the remaining 120 files (in CSV) containing site-level monthly hydropower availability. Example Jupyter Notebooks to explore the HydroSMADE dataset are available on GitHub at https://github.com/kamal0013/HydroSMADE More details on the methods and technical validation of HydroSMADE are available in the following paper by the same authors: Chowdhury, A. K., Abeshu, G. W., Zhao, M., Wild, T. B., Hassan, N., Ying, Z., Kim, G. J., Matthew, B., Jonathan, L., & Li, H.-Y. (Submitted). Hydropower Site-level Monthly Availability Data Ensemble for 1950-2100 at Existing and Potential Global Sites.

Existing and Potential Sites↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hierarchical Defect Engineering for LiCoO 2 through Low-Solubility Trace Element Doping

Real-world industry-relevant battery composite electrodes are hierarchically structured. Their structural and chemical complexity is featured by ubiquitous multi-scale porosity and cracks, solid-solid and solid-liquid interfaces, compositional and redox heterogeneity, as well as lattice disordering and deformation. In particular for the active cathode particles, which are the fundamental building blocks for the energy reservoir, it is a consensus that these structural and chemical defects could have a profound impact on the battery performance. An in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms could critically inform the cathode material engineering, which would have a tremendous potential but remains a daunting challenge at present. In this work, we tackle this question by studying LiCoO 2 (LCO) with trace doping of Ti, which exhibits a low solubility in the LCO layered lattice. Additionally, we observed the spontaneous and heterogeneous segregation of the dopant (Ti) across a wide range of length scales. In addition to the modification of the particle surface and the buried grain boundaries within the particle, we reveal that the Ti doping has induced a significant amount of lattice distortions, which, in turn, promotes the robustness of the LCO lattice at high state of charge (above 4.5V). Our result formulates a multi-scale defect engineering strategy that could be applicable to the synthesis of a broad range of energy materials for applications in batteries and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1985

Tentative identification of the 780/cm nu-4 band Q branch of chlorine nitrate in high-resolution solar absorption spectra of the stratosphere

According to models of the photochemistry of the stratosphere, chlorine nitrate (ClONO2) is an important temporary reservoir of stratospheric chlorine. At night, ClO is believed to combine in a three-body reaction with NO2 to form chlorine nitrate. During daylight, chlorine nitrate is destroyed by photolysis to form free chlorine and NO3. Infrared spectroscopy has the potential to provide a technique for conducting important quantitative measurements of stratospheric chlorine nitrate. The present paper reports a detailed study of spectra in the 780/cm region. This study has led to the tentative identification of the nu-4 band Q branch of ClONO2 as a significant contributor to the observed stratospheric absorption near 780.21 per cm.

Rinsland, C. P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Connecting Geomechanical Properties with Potential for Proppant Embedment and Production Decline for the Emerging Caney Shale, Oklahoma

The Caney Shale is emerging as a target for hydrocarbon production, creating opportunities to study rock mechanical origins of observed/anticipated challenges to effective and sustained stimulation. Here we examine five subunits within the Caney, two of which are dubbed “ductile” and three of which are dubbed “reservoir” rock types. The “ductile” versus “reservoir” identification is initially based on elastic properties ascertained from well logs. By comparing core-based mechanical tests, it is found nominally ductile and reservoir layers do not differ in terms of brittleness, but instead the nominally ductile layers tend to be weaker and more prone to creep deformation compared to the nominally more brittle reservoir layers. This difference in mechanical properties is shown to generate higher susceptibility to proppant embedment in the weaker and more creep-prone layers. Specifically, over a 5-year period, the creep is expected to have little impact on reservoir layers but is predicted to reduce propped fracture aperture by a factor of 2 in the ductile layers.

Benge, Margaret↗

DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Simulations in Support of a Long-Term Test of Gas Production from Hydrate Accumulations on the Alaska North Slope: Reservoir Response to Interruptions of Production (Shut-Ins)

In this work, we investigate by means of numerical simulation a planned year-long field test of depressurization-induced production from a permafrost-associated hydrate reservoir on the Alaska North Slope at the site of the recently drilled Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well. The main objective of this study is to assess quantitatively the impact of temporary interruptions (well shut-ins) on the expected fluid production performance from the B1 Sand of the stratigraphic Unit B during controlled depressurization over different time scales, as well as on other relevant aspects of the system response that have the potential to significantly affect the design of the field test. We consider eight different cases of depressurization, including (a) rapid depressurization over a 60-day period to a terminal bottomhole pressure P W of 2.8 MPa and (b) a slower depressurization rate to a final P W of 0.6 MPa at the end of the year-long production test, in addition to (c) a multi-step depressurization regime and (d) a quasi-linear continuous depressurization strategy. The results of the study indicate that shut-ins obviously reduce gas release and production during and immediately after their occurrence, but their longer-term effects are strongly dependent on the depressurization regime and on the time of observation, covering the entire range of potential outcomes. Shut-ins (a) have a universally strong negative effect when quasi-linear depressurization is involved regardless of the length of the production period, and (b) have a strong positive effect in multi-step depressurization schemes that becomes apparent earlier for large initial pressure drops, but (c) can also appear to have practically no effect for slow stepwise depressurization at the end of the year-long production test. Shut-ins lead to a rapid reformation of hydrates, even to the point of disappearance of a free gas phase in the reservoir. Rapid depressurization regimes lead to early maximum rates of hydrate dissociation and gas production, while the maximum rates occur at the end of the production test for the cases of slower depressurization. Shut-ins do not appear to have a significant impact on water production, as the cessation of production is followed by higher rates production when depressurization resumes. Similarly, (a) the fraction of produced CH 4 originating from exsolution from the water, (b) the water-to-gas ratio, and (c) the rate of replenishment of produced water by boundary inflows do not appear significantly affected by shut-ins, the effects of which seem to be temporary in the majority of the cases. The study confirmed the superiority of multi-step depressurization methods as the most effective strategies for hydrate dissociation and gas production and showed that two observation wells (located at distances of 30 and 50 m from the production well) are appropriately positioned and both able to capture the P, T, and S G behavior during the fluid production and shut-ins in any of the eight cases we investigated.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mass spectral molecular mapping shows benefits of thermal evaporation in prelithiated silicon-based electrodes

Silicon based composites have become increasingly popular as potential anodes for lithium-ion batteries due to their large storage capacity and potential ability to generate batteries with energy densities greater than 350 Wh kg −1 . These anodes often see reduced initial columbic efficiency (ICE) due to disruptive volume expansionup to 300% and continuous solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation. Prelithiation, where an excess reservoir of Li is added to the electrode to compensate for irreversible SEI formation losses during their sample preparation, has proven to solve the issue of immediate capacity loss. Thermal evaporation is a prelithiation technique with limited studies on its effectiveness. In this study, time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) is used to highlight the benefits of prelithiation via thermal evaporation. ToF-SIMS provides chemical mapping and spatial information in 2D and 3D visualizing the deposition of lithium, identifying Li x Si y alloy and Li x Si y O z silicate formation, and the distribution of lithium passivation into the electrodes. Passivation under different atmospheric conditions, such as inert Argon (Ar) and Ar/ carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), highlights the impact of the environment on the passivation effectiveness and formation of Li x Si y alloy and Li x Si y O z silicate. The ToF-SIMS molecular imaging and depth profiling results indicate that prelithiation via thermal evaporation effectively distributes lithium throughout the depth profile thickness of several hundred nanometers. It induces a greater degree of Li x Si y O z silicate formation over Li x Si y alloy. Our ToF-SIMS characterization results show the effectiveness of thermal evaporation in producing a more stable electrode and an electrode with an effective lithium reserve that can preserve its capacity.

Parker, Gabriel D. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS) - Deliverable Task 7: Risk Assessment

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. The primary target CO 2 Storage Complex is the deep Ketona Dolomite located within a 140 square mile area of the Valley and Ridge Region of Alabama. This deep saline reservoir is beneath a confining system encompassing at least 6,500 ft of shales and other low permeability sediments. Project OASIS drilled a deep stratigraphic test well to confirm the geological properties of the confining system and storage reservoir(s) within the Storage Complex. The geological data was incorporated into numerical models to establish the areal extent of the CO 2 plume and help design the storage site and its monitoring system. The project is managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB), an interstate compact organization consisting of governors and state legislative leaders from sixteen southern states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as an appointee by the President of the United States. The organizational compact provides it with access to state government organizations and legislatures. The Board also maintains an Associate Members program comprised of energy resource companies, utilities, trade groups, academic R&D science and technology experts and energy consultants. Further, the SSEB staff is experienced in managing and coordinating complex energy and environmental programs, from research programs to full-scale design and demonstrations of new and innovative technologies. Project OASIS is a public-private partnership of six entities with multiple principal investigators (PIs). SSEB’s Lead PI and Co-PI are responsible for all aspects of project performance in accordance with the DOE-NETL Cooperative Agreement. SSEB has issued subgrants to Advanced Resources International, Inc., Alabama A&M University, Auburn University, Crescent Resource Innovation, and Oklahoma State University. Advanced Resources International, Inc., issued subgrants to Baker Hughes and Loudon Technical Services for field services

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Nonaqueous Redox‐Matched Flow Battery with Charge Storage in Insoluble Polymer Beads**

Abstract We describe the nonaqueous redox‐matched flow battery (RMFB), where charge is stored on redox‐active moieties covalently tethered to non‐circulating, insoluble polymer beads and charge is transferred between the electrodes and the beads via soluble mediators with redox potentials matched to the active moieties on the beads. The RMFB reported herein uses ferrocene and viologen derivatives bound to crosslinked polystyrene beads. Charge storage in the beads leads to a high (approximately 1.0–1.7 M) effective concentration of active material in the reservoirs while preventing crossover of that material. The relatively low concentration of soluble mediators (15 mM) eliminates the need for high‐solubility molecules to create high energy density batteries. Nernstian redox exchange between the beads and redox‐matched mediators was fast relative to the cycle time of the RMFB. This approach is generalizable to many different redox‐active moieties via attachment to the versatile Merrifield resin.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Insights from a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of a layered high-temperature thermal energy storage reservoir

Coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) modeling is applied to investigate the performance of a seasonal high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage operation based on data and conditions from current site investigations at the Geostorage Forsthaus pilot project in Bern (Switzerland). The model includes subhorizontal sand lenses of various lengths and dips that are embedded in a low permeability clay matrix. Thermal energy storage is simulated by seasonal injection and withdrawal of hot (up to 90 °C) water from a main well, with reservoir pressure regulated by two auxiliary wells at a distance of about 70 m from the main well. The results show how targeted injection into deeper permeable storage formations, along with active deep well pressure control, can effectively minimize geomechanical impact and the potential risk of damaging subsurface storage and sealing formations, or even surface facilities. With such pressure control, the subsurface mechanical responses are dominated by thermal strain and stress, which can be monitored with subsurface fiber optics. The study demonstrates how coupled THM modeling can be applied for the design of a safe and efficient thermal energy storage operation, and how subsurface fiber optic monitoring can be applied for performance confirmation, allowing for more confident operational forecasting.

Rutqvist, Jonny↗

NASA NTRS1995

Heterogeneous Chemistry Related to Stratospheric Aircraft

Emissions from stratospheric aircraft that may directly or indirectly affect ozone include NO(y), H2O, soot and sulfuric acid. To fully assess the impact of such emissions, it is necessary to have a full understanding of both the homogeneous and heterogeneous transformations that may occur in the stratosphere. Heterogeneous reactions on stratospheric particles play a key role in partitioning ozone-destroying species between their active and reservoir forms. In particular, heterogeneous reactions tend to activate odd chlorine while deactivating odd nitrogen. Accurate modeling of the net atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft requires a thorough understanding of the competing effects of this activation/deactivation. In addition, a full understanding of the potential aircraft impacts requires that the abundance, composition and formation mechanisms of the particles themselves be established. Over the last three years with support from the High Speed Research Program, we have performed laboratory experiments to determine the chemical composition, formation mechanism, and reactivity of stratospheric aerosols.

Tolbert, Margaret A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kuramoto synchronization of quantum tunneling polarons for describing the dynamic structure in cuprate superconductors

A major open topic in cuprates is the interplay between the lattice and electronic dynamics and the importance of their coupling to the mechanism of high-temperature superconductivity (HTSC). As evidenced by extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) experiments, anharmonic structural effects are correlated with the charge dynamics and the transition to a superconducting phase in different HTSC compounds. Here, in this paper, we describe how structural anharmonic effects can be coupled to electronic and lattice dynamics in cuprate systems by performing the exact diagonalization of a prototype anharmonic many-body Hamiltonian on a relevant 6-atom cluster and show that the EXAFS results can be understood as a Kuramoto synchronization transition between coupled internal quantum tunneling of polarons associated with the two-site distribution of the copper–apical oxygen (Cu-O ap ) pair in the dynamic structure. The transition is driven by the anharmonicity of the lattice vibrations and promotes the pumping of charge, initially stored at the apical oxygen reservoirs, into the copper-oxide plane. Simultaneously, a finite projection of the internal quantum tunneling polaron extends to the copper–planar oxygen (Cu-O pl ) pair. All these findings allow an interpretation based on an effective quantum-mechanical triple-well potential associated with the oxygen sites of the 6-atom cluster, which accurately represents the phase synchronization of apical oxygens and lattice-assisted charge transfer to the CuO 2 plane.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic Derivation of Transition-state Theory for Complex Quantum Systems

The decay of quantum complex systems through a potential barrier is often described with transition-state theory, also known as RRKM theory in chemistry. Here we derive the basic formula for transition-state theory based on a generic Hamiltonian as might be constructed in a configuration-interaction basis. Two reservoirs of random Hamiltonians from Gaussian orthogonal ensembles are coupled to intermediate states representing the transition states at a barrier. Under the condition that the decay of the reservoirs to open channels is large, an analytic formula for reaction rates is derived. Here, the transition states act as independent Breit–Wigner resonances which contribute additively to the total transition probability, as is well known for electronic conductance through resonant tunneling states. It is also found that the transition probability is independent of the decay properties of the states in the second reservoir over a wide range of decay widths.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Heavy Oil Polymer EOR in the Challenging Alaskan Arctic - It Works!

Under co-sponsorship of the US Department of Energy and Hilcorp Alaska LLC the first ever polymer field pilot commenced on 8/28/2018 in the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoir at the Milne Point Field on Alaska North Slope (ANS). The primary objective of the pilot is to prove the efficacy of polymer Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. More than two and half years after startup, the polymer injection, supporting laboratory experiments and simulation studies steadily continue. The pilot started injecting hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), at a concentration of 1,750 ppm to achieve a target viscosity of 45 cP, into the two horizontal injectors in the flood pattern. Production is monitored in the two horizontal producers. Based on laboratory measurements of polymer viscosity at reservoir conditions, the team decided to reduce polymer concentration to 1,200 ppm since July 2020 in an effort to control injection pressure and optimize polymer utilization. Quality control (QC) on the field ensures uniform polymer solution properties. Representative rock and fluid systems and test conditions are utilized in the corefloods on polymer retention, effect of injection water salinity, polymer loading, and their combinations on oil recovery. A history matched reservoir simulation model for forecasting oil recovery was developed on the basis of all the available field data. Field concerns related to the post-polymer breakthrough impact on flow assurance is addressed via specialized laboratory tests. Notwithstanding early operational disruptions and hydration issues, continuous polymer injection in both injectors has been achieved. To date, 950,000 lbs of polymer or 2 million barrels of polymer solution, equating to 13% of total pore volume (PV), has been placed in the flood pattern, serving as an effective indicator of adequate polymer injectivity. So far, the success of polymer EOR is evident from drastically reduced water cut in the producers, an estimated incremental 1,000 bopd over waterflood, and a favorable polymer utilization of 1.7 lbs/barrel of incremental oil. Polymer breakthrough was observed 26 months after the start of polymer injection. Main observations from corefloods are unusually high polymer retention values in some cases and a positive response to low salinity water. Although the heterogeneity in the flood pattern and exceptionally low water cut pose some challenges, persistent novel and justifiable simulation approaches have resulted in a robust history matched model. Experimental results on produced fluids treatment provide operational guidance for improved oil-water separation and mitigation of heater tube fouling. The ongoing success of the pilot is a key indicator of bringing the team ever closer to meeting the project’s primary objective. The encouraging results of the pilot is one of the drivers that has provided the impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field, which would increase oil recovery and extend the economic life of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The scientific knowledge, including the many lessons learned from this pilot also has referential value for other potential heavy oil EOR projects throughout the world. The collected data, operational lessons learned, and the overall success of the pilot are summarized in the paper.

None, None↗

DOE OSTI2022

Self-Sealing Mafic Sills for Carbon and Hydrogen Storage

Tabular igneous intrusions (sills) are common features in sedimentary basins and have the potential to be useful seals for fluids (e.g., CO 2 or H 2 ) in geological storage scenarios, and may be important as the need for geologic carbon sequestration and alternative fuel storage increases. This is advantageous in regions without ready access to large-volume reservoirs in depleted hydrocarbon plays and saline aquifers, like the northeastern United States. Moreover, geological H 2 storage requires more demanding conditions than typically associated with oil and gas. An enhanced seal will have the properties of a traditional seal - competent, low permeability, and laterally extensive - with the addition of being able to self-seal pre-existing and induced fractures. Self-sealing will occur along fluid pathways like fractures where CO 2 , water, and minerals like plagioclase, olivine, and pyroxene react together. Dolerite sills from the Gettysburg Basin, Pennsylvania, have remarkably low permeability and homogeneous compositions that include minerals that will readily react with CO 2 dissolved in water. Here, we characterize the physical properties and chemical gradients within several mafic sills cored in five boreholes. In addition, preliminary CO 2 -reaction experiments on dolerite samples demonstrated rapid carbonate mineralization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Technoeconomic Analysis of Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs) with WS 2 /Carbon Composite as Counter Electrode Material

Exploration of clean and renewable energy materials is necessary due to the coming energy crisis and environmental problems. Solar energy is one of the favorable energy sources because of the continuous energy reservoir and its affluence. Silicon-based solar devices are expensive due to their complicated production process, which limits this technology for urban and other commercial applications. Among the third generation of solar cells, Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSCs) have attracted widespread attention as potential cost-effective alternatives to silicon-based solar cells. In this paper, the commercializing potential of the DSSCs is investigated. A module is introduced where the materials, equipment, and distribution of direct manufacturing costs are calculated. The manufacturing costs and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of these DSSCs for a system lifetime of 25 years were determined to be USD 22.40 per m 2 and USD 0.0438 per kWh and the module price of this technology is USD 0.18 per W and the total installed system cost is USD 0.88 per W in Kansas which suggest that this PV technology could challenge other leading PV technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning for Subsurface Flow: A Comparative Study of U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators, and Transformers in Underground Hydrogen Storage

Subsurface flow research is essential for the sustainable management of natural resources and the environment. Deep learning (DL) has significantly advanced this field by developing efficient and accurate surrogate models to replace computationally expensive physics‐based simulations. These surrogate models are commonly used to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of state variables, such as gas saturation and reservoir pressure, in heterogeneous geological formations. Despite the various DL models applied to this task, there is a lack of studies systematically comparing their performance. This absence of comparative analysis leads to somewhat arbitrary DL model selection in subsurface flow research, resulting in suboptimal performance and potentially inaccurate predictions. To bridge this gap, we conduct a systematic comparison study of three popular DL architectures—U‐Net, Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and Segmentation Transformer (SETR)—in surrogate modeling of underground hydrogen storage (UHS). We focus on UHS due to its promise of enhancing clean energy resilience and its cyclic operational conditions that represent common scenarios in various subsurface applications. We evaluate the models based on accuracy, training cost, and inference speed. The comparison shows that U‐Net achieves the highest accuracy, followed by SETR and FNO. Despite its lower accuracy, FNO has the highest inference speed. SETR offers competitive accuracy with the least training memory usage, demonstrating the potential of transformers in learning subsurface flow. Our results provide guidance for selecting DL models for surrogate modeling in a wide range of subsurface flow problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗