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An Overview of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Uncertainty Assessment Accident Progression Insights

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) have completed three uncertainty analyses (UAs) as part of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) program. The SOARCA UAs included an integrated evaluation of uncertainty in accident progression, radiological release, and offsite health consequence projections. The UA for Peach Bottom, a boiling-water reactor (BWR) with a Mark I containment located in the State of Pennsylvania, analyzed the unmitigated long-term station blackout SOARCA scenario. The UA for Sequoyah, a 4-loop Westinghouse pressurized-water reactor (PWR) located in the State of Tennessee, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario, with a focus on issues unique to the ice condenser containment and the potential for early containment failure due to hydrogen deflagration. The UA for Surry, a 3-loop Westinghouse PWR with a sub-atmospheric large dry containment located in the State of Virginia, analyzed the unmitigated short-term station blackout SOARCA scenario including the potential for thermally-induced steam-generator tube rupture. These three UAs are currently documented in three NUREG/CR reports. This report provides input to planned NRC documentation on the insights and findings from the SOARCA UA program. The purpose of the summary report is to provide a useful reference for regulatory applications that require the evaluation of offsite consequence risk from beyond design basis event severe accidents. This report focuses on the accident progression and source term insights developed from the MELCOR analyses. MELCOR is the NRC's best-estimate, severe accident computer code used in the SOARCA UAs. In anticipation of the SOARCA UA insights work, NRC and Sandia benchmarked the response of the Peach Bottom model to selected reference calculations from the Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. Peach Bottom was the first SOARCA UA performed and was completed in 2015 using the MELCOR 1.8.6 code. The PWR SOARCA UAs evolved the original methodology and utilized the updated MELCOR 2.2 computer code. The Peach Bottom model has been systematically updated for other NRC research efforts and has been updated to MELCOR 2.2. computer code. The findings from the new reference calculations using the updated model with the MELCOR 2.2 code are also integrated into the report. A second objective is an assessment of the applicability of the results to the other nuclear reactors in the U.S. As the key findings are reviewed, judgments are presented on the applicability of the results to other U.S. nuclear power plants. An important objective of the SOARCA program relied on high- fidelity plant-specific modeling. However, the nature of the insights and conclusions allowed judgements to be made on the applicability of the various insights to the same general classification of plant (i.e., BWR or PWR) or the entire fleet of plants. Finally, the results from the SOARCA UA accident progression calculations contain a wealth of information not previously documented in the NUREG/CRs. This report includes new but related information that can be used to benchmark past or support future regulatory decisions related to severe accidents. The new work includes a benchmark of the NUREG-1465 licensing source term definitions, the variability of key accident progression events and timing to radionuclide release, and an improved understanding of the timing and source terms from consequential steam generator tube ruptures. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Sandia authors gratefully acknowledge the significant technical and programmatic contributions from the NRC SOARCA team which are reflected throughout the report. Dr. Tina Ghosh has been involved throughout the SOARCA UAs, providing the primary managerial and technical oversight. The long lists of NRC and Sandia contributors from the SOARCA UAs are cited in the three NUREG/CRs and are also gratefully acknowledged by the small team of authors compiling the results of their efforts. Significant technical contributions, advice, and reviews were provided by Dr. Hossein Esmaili, Dr. Alfred Hathaway, and Dr. Edward Fuller (retired) of the NRC. Dr. Randal Gauntt (retired), Mr. Patrick Mattie, Mr. Joseph Jones (retired), and Dr. Doug Osborn from Sandia are recognized as the SOARCA UA managers guiding the past efforts. There is a comparable list of project managers at the NRC including Ms. Patricia Santiago, Dr. Salman Haq, and Mr. Jon Barr. Sadly, we have lost Mr. Charlie Tinkler and Mr. Robert Prato, who were important contributors to the original SOARCA project. Finally, Mr. Kyle Ross and Mr. Mark Leonard have also retired but were significant technical contributors. Mr. Kyle Ross was the technical lead on all three SOARCA UAs and the original pressurized water reactor SOARCA study. Mr. Leonard was the technical lead on the original boiling water reactor SOARCA study and a key contributor to the first Peach Bottom SOARCA UA. iv

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Proposed guidance for preparing and reviewing a molten salt non-power production or utilization facility application

Development of non-power molten salt reactors (MSRs) are under consideration to further establish an MSR experience base, support the requirements of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Section 50.43(e), and provide any additional analyses needed for development of a full-scale MSR. Guidance provided in this report is based on MSRs operating with liquid fuel (i.e., fuel dissolved within a molten salt). These reactors, unless owned by the DOE or DOD, will require licensing by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff. Standard review plan (SRP) guidance for large light water reactors (LWRs) is available in NUREG-0800, Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants; Light Water Reactor (LWR) Edition. However, NRC staff observed that NUREG-0800 is very cumbersome to apply to non-power reactors “because of the great differences in complexity and hazards between non-power reactors and nuclear power plants.” Therefore, a program to develop performance-based guidance applicable to non-power reactors was initiated. In 1996, NUREG-1537, Parts 1 and 2, Guidelines for Preparing and Reviewing Applications for the Licensing of Non-Power Reactors, was published. Part 1, the format and content guide, suggests a uniform format for presenting information in non-power reactor applications that is acceptable to the NRC staff, but conformance with the format and content is not required. Part 2, the SRP, ensures the quality and uniformity of the staff review of an application. Unfortunately, the application guidelines and SRP do not provide adequate guidance for all advanced non-LWR technologies and applications. This discrepancy eventually led to the 2012 development of interim staff guidance (ISG) for NUREG-1537, which includes criteria for describing and reviewing aqueous homogeneous reactors (AHRs). Specifically, NUREG-1537 ISG, 2012 expanded the original document to address three areas: 1. updated criteria for heterogeneous non-power reactors, 2. criteria for licensing AHRs, and 3. criteria for licensing a Part 50-licensed isotope production facility. In 2015, the US Department of Energy (DOE) opted to build on the AHR NUREG-1537 ISG experience by performing a gap analysis of the guidance that would be used to license a non-power MSR. MSRs represent one of the advanced non-LWR technologies selected by DOE for development through a multiyear cost share award with Southern Company Services. Under this Advanced Reactor Concepts 2015 (DOE Advanced Reactor Concepts [ARC] 15) award program, the DOE tasked Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to evaluate the guidance changes that the NRC may need to consider when licensing an MSR non-power reactor. ORNL staff, with support from Boston Government Services, LLC, focused on five system-related chapters in NUREG-1537 that were considered most relevant to inform the effort that would be required for a non-power MSR applicant. ORNL documented this review in a technical report, ORNL/TM-2018/834, Proposed Guidance for Preparing and Reviewing Molten Salt Non-Power Reactor License Applications (NUREG-1537). The report was subsequently shared with industry and the NRC. The 2018 review was limited in scope, focusing on key system chapters based on the expected significance of each chapter relative to expected differences in addressing advanced non-LWR technologies, specifically non-power MSRs, compared with heterogeneously fueled non-power reactors. In the ORNL report, proposed generic adaptations were suggested for the following NUREG-1537 chapters: Chapter 4, “Reactor Description”; Chapter 5, “Reactor Coolant Systems”; Chapter 6, “Engineered Safety Features”; Chapter 9, “Auxiliary Systems”; Chapter 11, “Radiation Protection Program and Waste Management” The inclusion of Chapter 11 in the previous review effort was intended to provide guidance for categorizing the waste-handling process for an MSR operating with homogenous fuel. The introductions from Parts 1 and 2 of the 2012 NUREG-1537 ISG provide guidance for the application and review of production facilities. After a period of operation, non-power MSRs with homogenous fuel will include gaseous and soluble fission products. The gaseous fission products will be collected and held for decay in an off-gas system. There might also be an initiative to polish or filter the soluble fission products in the fuel salt by some mechanical or chemical means. The treatment and handling of fission products in the non-power MSR fuel salt and the description of this process in the safety analysis report (SAR) must be very precise to avoid the waste treatment facility being construed as a co-located special nuclear material (SNM) fuel cycle facility (see Section 2.3 of this report). Subsequent to the release of ORNL/TM-2018/834, NRC staff expressed a desire to continue the regulatory gap analysis that was begun in that report. This would provide additional clarity and information addressed in certain sections of the original report, while also providing new guidance on certain topics not addressed in the original report. This revision would benefit the NRC staff reviewing applications involving non-power MSR designs and would help developers understand how the NRC staff might approach the review of such applications. The focus of this report is to provide infrastructure support to the NRC staff for the regulatory review of non-power MSRs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Comparing Offshore Wind Energy Procurement and Project Revenue Sources Across U.S. States

The pace of offshore wind energy procurement in the United States has rapidly accelerated in recent years. U.S. states along the Atlantic Coast have set procurement goals for offshore wind energy to meet renewable portfolio standards and serve state policy needs. By the end of 2019, projects with a total capacity of 6.4 gigawatts (GW) had established long-term contracts (or equivalent regulatory requirements) with utility off-takers. The prices established in these contracts since 2017 have been well below expectations from many industry observers, prompting stakeholders to compare price levels across U.S. states and globally. However, comparing procurement prices across projects and jurisdictions is often challenging because of differences in project parameters, support regimes, supply chains, and the applicable tax and regulatory environment. These characteristics provide critical context for understanding project revenue streams, delivery obligations, and risk allocation, which need to be accounted for when comparing across different projects. In combination, variation in these characteristics between projects results in measurable differences in project costs and revenues and, consequently, in different offer bids. In this report, we systematically analyze offshore wind energy support regimes across U.S. states. Because offshore wind energy procurement prices from U.S. projects are often compared not only among states but also with European tenders, this report also provides an overview of support regimes and taxonomy used in European offshore wind markets. The content of this report was derived from a literature review, primarily regulatory filings and summary reports, and 16 interviews with leading industry experts from state agencies, energy sector consultancies, and law practices. The comparison between U.S. states focuses on several dimensions, including statutory authority, solicitation procedures, procurement goals and awards, and the structuring of physical and transactional delivery of energy services.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

TCR Postulated Accident and MHA Dose Assessment

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is engaged in regulatory activities to gain US Department of Energy (DOE) approval to build and operate a small high-temperature gas reactor, the Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR). ORNL uses advanced manufacturing techniques to produce select reactor components. The TCR is unique in its mission: the reactor’s at-power operating lifetime will be less than one effective full-power day to limit the radiological source term to very low values, thus facilitating approval to operate. The primary regulatory documents governing construction and operation of the facility are NUREG-1537, “Guidelines for Preparing and Reviewing Applications for the Licensing of Non-Power Reactors” and DOE-STD-3009, “Preparation of Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analysis.” Although this document is not a safety basis document, it provides a conservative indication of the magnitude of onsite and offsite radiological doses for specific scenarios, thus informing future design and regulatory activities. As required by NUREG-1537, scenarios included in this analysis are (1) a worstcase depressurized loss-of-forced-circulation accident, and (2) a maximum hypothetical accident. Details on the analysis of dose consequences with various system configurations are also provided.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Ecosystems and Networks Integrated with Genes and Molecular Assemblies (ENIGMA) (Final Scientific/Technical Report, Subcontract Award No. 6953691)

The overarching objective the Baliga lab is to develop a mechanistic understanding of the field relevant metabolic processes underlying community partitioning of respiration pathways and physiological state shifts. In order to dissect how environmental perturbations influence microbial regulatory networks, we have constructed data-driven models that capture the dynamic interplay between abiotic and biotic factors during laboratory simulations. Specifically, we have developed multiple computational models (i.e., cMonkey2, EGRIN 2.0, and multiple genome-scale metabolic models) connecting environmental influence to genome-encoded regulatory programs. In addition, we have generated new tools such as Live Anaerobic Cell Sorting (LAnCS) and Fluidized Bed Reactors (FBRs) to investigate the dynamics of community partitioning of metabolic processes supporting sulfate or nitrate respiration, which are two critical activities observed from the field site at Oak Ridge National Labs (ORNL). This framework of connecting field phenomena with laboratory simulations and computational modeling has created the Environmental Simulations and Modelling (EnvSim) campaign within ENIGMA. The campaign, which spans multiple laboratories across ENIGMA and is led by the Baliga group, has established synthetic communities (SynComs) to discover, characterize, and dissect key microbial processes relevant to field observations, such as emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). For example, the EnvSim campaign so far has deduced four potential mechanisms that may account for the N 2 O emissions at the FRC and are currently being investigated by labs across ENIGMA. Denitrification may be driven by complete denitrifiers, however, their NosZ enzymes, which catalyze the final step in denitrification by converting N 2 O to N 2 , may be sensitive at a lower pH. Additionally, the denitrification process could be partitioned among organisms and some may have pH-sensitive NosZ genes. Another factor contributing to variable N 2 O emissions relates to the metal co-factors involved in the denitrification pathway. For instance, excess Cu, Al, Mn, U, Ni, Co, Cu, and/or Cd may have inhibitory effects on multiple enzymatic steps during denitrification, while the enzymatic production of nitrite, the precursor of N 2 O, can be limited by the essential metal Mo. Lastly, abiotic production of N 2 O may occur as a result of chemodenitrification, in which metals like Fe, Mn, and some organic compounds can drive redox reactions that convert nitrogen cycle intermediates to N 2 O under the right conditions. Current investigations and analyses have generated multiple transcriptomic profiles aiding the refinement of new metabolic and gene regulatory network model for our denitrifying SynCom. In sum, the previous funding cycle has generated 33 peer-reviewed publications spanning predictive network biology to co-operativity of mutualistic interspecies interactions of evolved communities. Our integration of multiple omics datasets and the development of new network modelling tools has revealed important insights that can explain field observed phenomenon and generated new hypotheses to be investigated in the field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

TCR Input to NUREG-1537 Process for Advanced Nuclear Technologies Derived from Additive Manufacturing

There has been a renewed interest by several advanced reactor developers to use NUREG-1537 “Guidelines for Preparing and Reviewing Applications for the Licensing of Non-Power Reactors” as a basis for their safety analysis report content and organization. Recently, SHINE Medical Technologies, LLC (SHINE), which is a non-power, Aqueous Homogenous Reactor design radioisotope production facility, received a construction permit based around their NUREG-1537 safety evaluation report (ADAMS No. ML16229A140). Advanced reactor developers are interested in using NUREG-1537 as a basis for their safety analysis report content and organization because of its successful application towards research reactors, graded approach, and simplicity in structure and requirements. However, NUREG-1537 is still largely geared toward light water reactors (LWRs) and many improvements could be made or supported through guidance documents for advanced reactors. For nuclear power to play a role in the future zero-carbon energy portfolio, a supportive regulatory structure is needed to lower regulatory uncertainty and barriers to deployment. At the time of this report, no such document or pathway exists for advanced nuclear technologies, including those derived from nontraditional technology such as advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and, specifically, additive manufacturing. This report will explore and provide recommendations as to how advanced nuclear technologies derived from additive manufacturing technologies could employ the use of an ISG, other guidance document, or revisions to NUREG-1537 to lower the regulatory uncertainty and barriers for adoption.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Global Market Analysis of Microreactors

Microreactors are smaller and simplified versions of nuclear power plants using current generation and advanced nuclear technology designs. The purpose of this report is to assesses the unique capabilities of microreactors and assess potential deployment in specific global markets in the 2030-2050 timeframe, with consideration for regulatory limits. The methods include developing unique microreactor deployment indicators and matching use cases to define future profile markets. Top-down and bottom-up analysis techniques were used to evaluate emerging market trends, derive a range of possible demands, and rank potential markets in 63 countries including current nuclear users and newcomer countries. Deployment is considered from regulatory and planning perspectives. Results indicate significant potential for global deployment of microreactors, but also significant challenges in achieving the technical capacities, meeting regulatory requirements and international accords, achieving competitive costs, and for gaining public acceptance. Profile microreactor markets were identified that include isolated operations, distributed energy, resilient urban applications, marine propulsion, and disaster relief. Market demands could be strong in Western Europe and possibly even the U.S., but particularly strong across Asia and Eastern Europe in isolated operations and distributed energy applications. Build rates in the hundreds of units by 2040 and thousands by 2050 would be needed to attain market penetration at scale.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Organic Iodide Sorption from Dilute Gas Streams

Reprocessing used nuclear fuel releases volatile radionuclides, including 129 iodine (I), into the off-gas of a processing plant. Volatile radioiodine could be present in several forms, depending on the chemistry of the process used and the off-gas stream. Inorganic I 2 is expected to be the predominant I species in the dissolver off-gas (DOG), with minor organic iodides present. The bulk of the I is expected to volatilize into the DOG in parts-per-million-level (ppm) concentrations. In contrast, in the vessel off-gas (VOG), most of the volatile I is expected to be found as organic iodides, such as CH 3 I, C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I. These species are expected to be present in parts-per-billion-level (ppb) concentrations but require abatement, even at low expected concentrations, to meet regulatory emissions limits in the United States. Historically, studies of I abatement by Ag-functionalized sorbents have focused on inorganic I in the DOG, but in the last few years, more research attention has been given to organic iodides, especially longer chain species, such as C 4 H 9 I, and C 12 H 25 I. This report has three main goals: (1) to present new data generated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in FY21 on the sorption behavior of organic iodides on AgZ, (2) to summarize and synthesize organic iodide data produced by ORNL and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) over the last 4 years to answer questions on organic iodides behavior outlined in the 2018 joint test plan (Jubin et al. 2018), and (3) to propose a VOG abatement system design that can provide the capture efficiencies required to meet I emission limits. The 2021 ORNL experimental campaign tested the effects of organic iodide speciation and concentration in the off-gas, superficial velocity of the off-gas, and effects of aging on AgZ sorbent capacity. These studies found that the sorption rate of organic iodides by AgZ depends on the hydrocarbon chain length and the concentration in the off-gas. Higher molecular weight organic iodides adsorb to AgZ more slowly than I. At a concentration of 50 ppm concentration in the off-gas, CH 3 I loads 8% slower, C 4 H 9 I loads 20% slower, and C 12 H 25 I loads 40% slower than I. The lowest concentration loading rates calculated were in 5 ppm organic iodide gas streams in which AgZ gained on average 0.14 mg I/g sorbent/hour in the bench scale test system. Thus, longer sorbent beds might be needed to accommodate slower loading rates onto AgZ in lower concentration gas streams. Although sorption rate varies as a function of hydrocarbon chain length, the saturation concentration of the sorbent for these I-bearing species does not vary. Aging AgZ in a humid air stream for 9 months drops the overall sorbent capacity by ~35% for CH 3 I, ~50% for C 4 H 9 I, and ~40% for C 12 H 25 I. This results in a saturation capacity between 35 and 70 mg I/g sorbent for the aged AgZ. In conjunction with recent data produced by INL, these data are used to estimate the mass transfer zone (MTZ) and decontamination factor (DF) for sorbent beds of AgZ. Sorption tests performed with iodide gas concentrations of about 1 ppm and higher at a superficial gas velocity of 10 m/min, indicate that MTZ depths for these conditions tend to range between about 8-20 cm. Tests performed at lower concentrations between 50-90 ppb and at gas superficial velocities of 1, 10, and 20 m/min indicate that the MTZ depth increases with increasing superficial gas velocity. The 20 m/min test indicates that the MTZ for those conditions was at least 22 cm, and doubling the superficial gas velocity from 10 to 20 m/min could roughly double or triple the MTZ depth. Doubling and tripling the bounding MTZ depth of 20 cm for the body of MTZ estimates made at with 10 m/min superficial velocity would extend the MTZ for a superficial velocity of 20 m/min to 40-60 cm. This bounding limit applies to all of the organic iodides that have been tested. These results also indicate that the sorption rate-limiting step is not sensitive to the superficial gas velocity; otherwise the MTZ depth would not have increased approximately in proportion to the increase in the gas superficial velocity. This further suggests that the rate limiting step is not associated with mass transfer of the sorbate to the sorbent surface, or mass transfer of the reaction byproducts from the sorbent surface, but is associated with sorption or chemical reactions on the sorbent surface or in sorbent pores. Deep bed testing at INL has established DFs of >2,000 for I, CH 3 I, and C 4 H 9 I under a range of conditions (Soelberg et al. 2021, Bruffey et al. 2019). DF does not seem to be affected by the concentration of the organic iodide in the gas stream over the range of 1 to 50 ppm. Thus, if the MTZ is accommodated in sorbent bed design for the DOG and VOG, then regulatory DFs will be met. To meet the third objective outlined in this report, these experimental data were used to update an engineering evaluation of the VOG first completed in 2016. The updated VOG design can be found in an accompanying document (Welty et al., 2021; INL- LTD-21-64587). This report finds that the VOG will decrease in both size and complexity, relative to previous designs, and will still meet regulatory requirements for all iodine forms.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Safety Analysis Report For Packaging, Y-12 National Security Complex, Model ES-3100 Package with Bulk HEU Contents

This safety analysis report for packaging (SARP) presents the results of the safety analysis prepared in support of the Consolidated Nuclear Security, LLC (CNS) request for licensing of the Model ES-3100 package with bulk highly enriched uranium (HEU) contents and issuance of a Type B(U) Fissile Material Certificate of Compliance. This SARP, published in the format specified in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 7.9 and using information provided in UCID-21218 and NRC Regulatory Guide 7.10, demonstrates that the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) ES-3100 package with bulk HEU contents meets the established NRC regulations for packaging, preparation for shipment, and transportation of radioactive materials given in Title 10, Part 71, of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) [10 CFR 71] as well as U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations for packaging and shipment of hazardous materials given in Title 49 CFR.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Material Control & Accountancy for Molten Salt Reactors (FY2021 Report)

There is significant domestic and international interest, investment, and research and development momentum to pursue advanced nuclear reactor technologies. Molten salt reactor (MSR) concepts display the largest variability in fuel type and design features among the current advanced concepts. MSRs have been proposed with various core designs, sizes (power), and fuel cycles. Salt-fueled molten salt systems represent the only advanced reactor type with fuel that is not in a solid form during operation. These “liquid-fueled” MSRs are unique from perspectives of fuel fabrication, spent irradiated fuel and waste components, licensing, and material control and accountability (MC&A) including the potential of fissile material holdup. The liquid fuel salt is the defining distinction in comparison to other advanced reactors that propose TRI-structural ISOtropic particle fuel pebbles, various coolant options (e.g., molten salts or metals, high temperature gas), or small modular alternatives using solid fuel variants including both light water reactors and non-light water reactors. MSRs are appealing to the nuclear energy industry because of the diverse reactor characteristics they can support including various neutron energy spectra, fueling requirements, fuel cycles, and/or fuel utilization. However, because of the significant deviation and diversity of a salt-fueled system compared to traditional solid fuel light water-cooled reactors (LWRs), the history, regulatory licensing framework, modeling capabilities, and supporting engineering technology are either lacking or, in some cases, nonexistent. Therefore, the research community is actively supporting advanced MSR development on many of these fronts in particular to assist MSR vendors with licensing requirements. ORNL is leading the research and development of respective MC&A approaches for salt-fueled MSRs. This report summarizes the research performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under the US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, Advanced Reactor Safeguards (ARS) program to investigate safeguards and security by design concepts, licensing and regulatory considerations, and dynamic system-level modeling to understand radioisotope concentrations for salt-fueled MSRs. The report builds upon the previous research and literature, identifies the MC&A challenges inherent to a salt-fueled MSR, reviews current regulatory frameworks for LWRs and their applicability towards salt-fueled MSRs, summarizes the status and progress of an MSR dynamic modeling tool, and discusses a prospective MC&A approach based on the Molten Salt Demonstration Reactor (MSDR) model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Economic Impact of Permitting Timelines on Geothermal Power in California, Nevada, and Utah

The United States has great geothermal power potential; however, only a small fraction of this resource has been utilized for power generation. Various barriers, including technical, financial, and regulatory permit delays, are attributed to the lower penetration of geothermal energy into the national grid. Unpredictable environmental reviews and permitting timelines are some of the non-technical barriers that can cause delays in geothermal exploration and utilization plans. This document provides an assessment of the potential economic impact of permitting costs and timelines on geothermal power in California, Nevada, and Utah. Development of geothermal resources requires multi-layered regulatory permitting by local, state, and federal agencies. In this study, we collected and reviewed permit timelines and associated cost data for several existing geothermal power plants as well as for geothermal projects currently undergoing permitting processes for exploration and development activities in California, Nevada, and Utah. We interviewed several geothermal developers and staff from multiple permitting agencies to obtain insight from both sides (i.e., people applying for permits and people processing those applications for California Environmental Quality Act [CEQA] and National Environmental Policy Act [NEPA] reviews and other regulatory compliance). The intent of this project was also to identify informative pathways for the geothermal stakeholder community by which the permitting process could be streamlined.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Ultrasonic Jet Bat Deterrent System Advancement

General Electric Renewable Energy (GE) and the Department of Energy (DOE) worked to develop a project with an objective to increase confidence in acoustic ultrasonic bat deterrent technologies in wind turbines, by mitigating stakeholder investment risks that currently hinder the adoption of deterrent technologies. Many wind turbine sites utilize a bat conservation plan that curtail wind turbines and stop energy production. Curtailment is a known bat impact mitigation solution that has an history of environmental regulatory acceptance. To help support a solution that allows for simultaneous bat conservation and energy production with regulatory acceptance of acoustic bat deterrents, GE proposed a study to compare four treatments: control (no curtailment or deterrent), deterrent only, deterrent plus curtailment, and curtailment only. The concept was to provide a direct comparison of bat deterrent and curtailment effectiveness within the same wind farm and bat migration season. This comparison was intended to advocate for the adoption of bat deterrents with a large-scale field study by addressing customer concerns on regulatory acceptance of deterrents. The study was to be hosted at a forested habitat site during a bat migration season, by Stony Creek Energy, LLC (SCE), the owner of the Orangeville Wind Farm (OWF) in the state of New York. Included was a behavioral study plan with two turbines to monitor bat flight paths with thermal imaging cameras.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Geothermal Interagency Collaboration Task Force: Summary of Findings

This report summarizes the findings of the Geothermal Interagency Collaboration Task Force (Task Force) and associated stakeholder forums and Tribal listening sessions. The Task Force included federal agencies and state agencies in California and Nevada with a nexus to geothermal regulatory and permitting approvals. The Task Force met twice over the course of 2022 to discuss current geothermal regulatory and permitting challenges and strategies for improved coordination and permit processing. In addition, the project team held four forums/listening sessions in 2022 with geothermal industry representatives, environmental non-governmental organizations, and Tribes to gain additional insight and perspective on the geothermal regulatory process and managing potential cultural and natural resource conflicts that may arise during geothermal development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Differences In High Burnup Fuel Management Strategies to Minimize FFRD and Increase Economic Viability

The nuclear industry is pursuing approval of an increase in the length of the pressurized water reactor (PWR) cycle from 18 months to 24 months to reduce reactor downtime and enhance the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy. Such an increase in reactor cycle length will require that the maximum rod average burnup exceeds the current regulatory limit of 62 GWd/MTU, and it could peak at approximately 75 GWd/MTU, posing potential reactor safety and performance concerns. One such concern is that fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) could occur during a severe loss-of coolant accident (LOCA) in which a fuel rod balloons and bursts, and pulverized fuel fragments are dispersed throughout the reactor’s primary coolant system. Previous analyses have identified which reactor operating conditions leave the core more susceptible to FFRD and have shown that FFRD susceptibility is strongly linked to fuel rod burnup and linear heat rate (LHR) history. The work described in this report uses an optimization strategy known as parallel simulated annealing (PSA) and a coarse mesh Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) reactor physics model to develop two core fuel loading patterns, each with a different optimization objective. One core optimization maximized the core’s cycle length while still respecting regulatory limits on the radial peaking factor and soluble boron concentration with a peak rod average burnup of 75 GWd/MTU. The second optimization was aimed at minimizing FFRD susceptibility while still targeting a 24-month cycle length and respecting regulatory limits. PARCS model predictions were verified using the high-fidelity Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA). The two core designs were compared to highlight core design strategies to minimize FFRD susceptibility and to maximize economic viability.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of a BlueCRAB/MELCOR Framework for Supporting Realistic Mechanistic Source Term Calculations in Microreactors

Efforts are currently underway to deploy microreactor modeling and simulation tools to better support vendors and regulatory authorities in submitting and reviewing licensing applications. In particular, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is expected to rely on the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (BlueCRAB) multiphysics toolset in performing design- and beyond-design-basis accident analyses. In addition, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using the MELCOR code to estimate mechanistic source terms during accidents. As MELCOR relies on isotopic inventory and reactor temperature/power evolution profiles during accident conditions—all of which can theoretically be obtained from BlueCRAB—the ultimate goal of this activity is to establish a common BlueCRAB-MELCOR framework. However, prior to the present research, BlueCRAB had never been used to calculate such quantities of interest at the full-core level. While there are many Monte Carlo (MC) codes capable of computing such quantities of interest, they are unable to readily account for multiphysics feedback. BlueCRAB allows for the coupling of different physics codes together to perform multiphysics-informed calculations. Therefore, the purpose of this fiscal year 2023 work is to investigate the feasibility and challenges of performing such calculations within BlueCRAB so as to generate the data that MELCOR relies on. To demonstrate the methodology, the proposed workflow was applied to a prototypical heat pipe-cooled microreactor model. To predict isotopic concentrations (taking into account the ac- cumulation of fission products during operation), the necessary microscopic cross sections were generated via OpenMC and tabulated with respect to temperature and burnup. Next, a recently developed capability in Griffin (the reactor physics application in BlueCRAB) was used to convert the OpenMC output format into the ISOXML format used by Griffin. A multiphysics microscopic depletion calculation that involved performing a coupled full-core, heterogeneous neutron trans- port and thermal calculation at each depletion step was conducted to deplete the core to end of life (EOL) conditions so as to provide both isotopics and the initial condition for the transient calculation. Following a brief null-transient to verify that the initial condition had been properly restarted and was indeed in thermal equilibrium, a heat pipe failure transient was simulated. Thus, the entire workflow of using BlueCRAB to generate MELCOR inputs, from cross-section generation to producing isotopic inventory and power/temperature evolution profiles during transients, is demonstrated. This report also details the identified gaps in the workflow and how they were (for the most part) addressed. Future work should focus on directly including MEL- COR into the workflow by performing a MELCOR calculation using the BlueCRAB-generated input data. In addition, the heat pipe reactor design should be improved so as to reflect more prototypical burnup characteristics at EOL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Continued Development and Advanced Testing of DPC Filler Cements (on FY22 R&D and Demonstration Activities) (Progress Report)

Commercial generation of energy by nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) has produced thousands of metric tons of spent nuclear fuel (SNF), the disposal of which is the responsibility of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Utilities typically utilize the practice of storing this SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs). DPCs were designed, licensed, and loaded to meet Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements that preclude the possibility of a criticality event during SNF storage and transport, but were not designed or loaded to preclude the possibility of a criticality event during the regulated post-closure period following disposal, which could be up to 1,000,000 years (Price, 2019). There are several options being investigated that could facilitate the disposal of SNF stored in DPCs in a geologic repository (Hardin et al., 2015; SNL 2020b; SNL 2021b). These include: (1) repackage the SNF into canisters that are designed to prevent criticality during the regulated post-closure period following disposal, but with an increased disposal cost estimated at approximately $\$$20B in United States dollars (USD) (Freeze et al., 2019); (2) analysis of the probability and consequences of criticality from the direct disposal of DPCs during a 1,000,000-year post-closure period in several geologic disposal media (Price, 2019); and (3) filling the void space of a DPC with a material before its disposal that significantly limits the potential for criticality over the post-closure regulatory period. This report further investigates the third option, filling DPC already containing SNF with a material to limit the potential for criticality over the post-closure regulatory period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗