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At least 523 records · Page 29

Statistical analysis of astronomical data containing upper bounds - General methods and examples drawn from X-ray astronomy

Statistical procedures taken from the field of survival analysis have been adapted to astronomical usage and have been applied to a sample of stars in the B-V color range between 0.1 and 0.5 with measured soft X-ray luminosities and projected equatorial velocities. The two-sample problem and linear regression problem with arbitrarily censored data were studied. A new method for determining the linear regression between two random variables in the presence of arbitrary censoring has been developed which can also be used for a likelihood-ratio test for the independence of two random variables and for principal-component analysis in the presence of arbitrary censoring. The required numerical computations can be carried out straightforwardly and rapidly.

Schmitt, J. H. M. M.↗

Planetary searches using optical astrometric interferometers

The detectability of planets is discussed, and observations made with an astrometric interferometer (AI) at Mount Wilson are presented. Planets are detectable as a result of their periodic perturbation of the position of a central observable star. This detection requires relative astrometric accuracies of about 3 x 10 to the -4th for Jovian planets and about 3 x 10 to the -7th arcsec for terrestrial planets. The principles governing astrometric interferometry are explained, and it is conjectured that a two-color optical AI on earth should be capable of about 0.0001 arcsec rms accuracy for stars brighter than magnitude 7-10; small one-color space systems should achieve at least 0.00001 arcsec. Owing to atmospheric turbulence, two-color systems permit correction every few milliseconds for the random wavefront tilt. A 3.4-meter baseline interferometer on Mount Wilson has demonstrated arcsec rms fluctuations of about 0.02 for 1-sec samples. Space-based optical astrometric interferometry is also discussed.

Staelin, D. H.↗

A space-time stochastic model of rainfall for satellite remote-sensing studies

A model of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is described that produces random spatial rainfall patterns with these characteristics: (1) the model is defined on a grid with each grid point representing the average rain rate over the surrounding grid box, (2) rain occurs at any one grid point, on average, a specified percentage of the time and has a lognormal probability distribution, (3) spatial correlation of the rainfall can be arbitrarily prescribed, and (4) time stepping is carried out so that large-scale features persist longer than small-scale features. Rain is generated in the model from the portion of a correlated Gaussian random field that exceeds a threshold. The portion of the field above the threshold is rescaled to have a lognormal probability distribution. Sample output of the model designed to mimic radar observations of rainfall during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), is shown. The model is intended for use in evaluating sampling strategies for satellite remote-sensing of rainfall and for development of algorithms for converting radiant intensity received by an instrument from its field of view into rainfall amount.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Fatigue crack growth model RANDOM2 user manual. Appendix 1: Development of advanced methodologies for probabilistic constitutive relationships of material strength models

FORTRAN program RANDOM2 is presented in the form of a user's manual. RANDOM2 is based on fracture mechanics using a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model. It predicts the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given crack size. Details of the theoretical background, input data instructions, and a sample problem illustrating the use of the program are included.

Boyce, Lola↗

Nadir Measurements of Carbon Monoxide Distributions by the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Instrument Onboard the Aura Spacecraft: Overview of Analysis Approach and Examples of Initial Results

We provide an overview of the nadir measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) obtained thus far by the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). The instrument is a high resolution array Fourier transform spectrometer designed to measure infrared spectral radiances from low Earth orbit. It is one of four instruments successfully launched onboard the Aura platform into a sun synchronous orbit at an altitude of 705 km on July 15, 2004 from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. Nadir spectra are recorded at 0.06/cm spectral resolution with a nadir footprint of 5 x 8 km. We describe the TES retrieval approach for the analysis of the nadir measurements, report averaging kernels for typical tropical and polar ocean locations, characterize random and systematic errors for those locations, and describe instrument performance changes in the CO spectral region as a function of time. Sample maps of retrieved CO for the middle and upper troposphere from global surveys during December 2005 and April 2006 highlight the potential of the results for measurement and tracking of global pollution and determining air quality from space.

carbon monoxide↗

Optimal estimation for discrete time jump processes

Optimum estimates of nonobservable random variables or random processes which influence the rate functions of a discrete time jump process (DTJP) are obtained. The approach is based on the a posteriori probability of a nonobservable event expressed in terms of the a priori probability of that event and of the sample function probability of the DTJP. A general representation for optimum estimates and recursive equations for minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimates are obtained. MMSE estimates are nonlinear functions of the observations. The problem of estimating the rate of a DTJP when the rate is a random variable with a probability density function of the form cx super K (l-x) super m and show that the MMSE estimates are linear in this case. This class of density functions explains why there are insignificant differences between optimum unconstrained and linear MMSE estimates in a variety of problems.

Vaca, M. V.↗

Digital generation of alongwind velocity field

A procedure is described for generating simulation samples of the two-dimensional fluctuating component of the wind velocity acting on the surface of a paraboloidal antenna. A numerical example shows that a simulation sample can be generated rapidly by computer with results that appear reasonable. To complete the performance evaluation of the antenna surface for the random wind velocity, it would be necessary to combine the velocity field with pressure coefficients that can be established for the antenna surface. Loading coefficients could be derived readily from this combination and then standard procedures could be applied for the evaluation of the antenna rms measure of performance in response to the loading.

Shinozuka, M.↗

Computational problems in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models

The choice of the sampling interval and the selection of the order of the model in time series analysis are considered. Band limited (up to 15 Hz) random torque perturbations are applied to the human ankle joint. The applied torque input, the angular rotation output, and the electromyographic activity using surface electrodes from the extensor and flexor muscles of the ankle joint are recorded. Autoregressive moving average models are developed. A parameter constraining technique is applied to develop more reliable models. The asymptotic behavior of the system must be taken into account during parameter optimization to develop predictive models.

Agarwal, G. C.↗

A design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty

In the present design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty, a generalized sensitivity analysis is incorporated which employs parameter space sampling and statistical inference. For the case of a system with j adjustable and k nonadjustable parameters, this methodology (which includes an adaptive random search strategy) is used to determine the combination of j adjustable parameter values which maximize the probability of those performance indices which simultaneously satisfy design criteria in spite of the uncertainty due to k nonadjustable parameters.

Young, G. E.↗

Chemical classification of iron meteorites. XI - Multi-element studies of 38 new irons and the high abundance of ungrouped irons from Antarctica

Concentrations of 14 elements in the metal of 38 iron meteorites and a pallasite are reported. Three samples are paired with previously classified irons, raising the number of well-classified, independent iron meteorites to 598. Several of the new irons are from Antarctica. Of 24 independent irons from Antarctica, eight are ungrouped, a much higher fraction than that among all classified irons. The difference is probably related to the fact that the median mass of Antarctic irons is about two orders of magnitude smaller than that of non-Antarctic irons. Smaller meteoroids may tend to sample a larger number of asteroidal source regions, perhaps because small meteoroids tend to have higher ejection velocities or because they have random-walked a greater increment of orbital semimajor axis away from that of the parent body.

Wasson, John T.↗

Studies of solar type stars

Satellite observations show a change of 0.1 percent in solar irradiance over the past decade. The question arises as to whether larger changes in irradiance may occur over century time scales. Researchers approached this question by looking at changes in surface magnetism, since the satellite observations also show that irradiance and surface magnetism are correlated. To obtain information on possible variations in surface magnetism over century-long intervals, researchers looked at records of surface magnetism spanning up to 20 years for a sample of 74 stars of solar type, i.e., of similar age and mass to the sun. The histories of these stars, observed in random phases of their long-term variability, give a snapshot at any one time of the behavior of a solar-type star over long periods of time. Evidence on Maunder Minimum phases and levels of magnetic activity in these solar-type stars are compared with information on solar magnetism. Implications for solar irradiance changes are discussed.

Baliunas, Sallie↗

Perceptually Lossless Wavelet Compression

The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) decomposes an image into bands that vary in spatial frequency and orientation. It is widely used for image compression. Measures of the visibility of DWT quantization errors are required to achieve optimal compression. Uniform quantization of a single band of coefficients results in an artifact that is the sum of a lattice of random amplitude basis functions of the corresponding DWT synthesis filter, which we call DWT uniform quantization noise. We measured visual detection thresholds for samples of DWT uniform quantization noise in Y, Cb, and Cr color channels. The spatial frequency of a wavelet is r 2(exp -1), where r is display visual resolution in pixels/degree, and L is the wavelet level. Amplitude thresholds increase rapidly with spatial frequency. Thresholds also increase from Y to Cr to Cb, and with orientation from low-pass to horizontal/vertical to diagonal. We propose a mathematical model for DWT noise detection thresholds that is a function of level, orientation, and display visual resolution. This allows calculation of a 'perceptually lossless' quantization matrix for which all errors are in theory below the visual threshold. The model may also be used as the basis for adaptive quantization schemes.

Watson, Andrew B.↗

Visibility of Wavelet Quantization Noise

The Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) decomposes an image into bands that vary in spatial frequency and orientation. It is widely used for image compression. Measures of the visibility of DWT quantization errors are required to achieve optimal compression. Uniform quantization of a single band of coefficients results in an artifact that is the sum of a lattice of random amplitude basis functions of the corresponding DWT synthesis filter, which we call DWT uniform quantization noise. We measured visual detection thresholds for samples of DWT uniform quantization noise in Y, Cb, and Cr color channels. The spatial frequency of a wavelet is r 2(exp)-L , where r is display visual resolution in pixels/degree, and L is the wavelet level. Amplitude thresholds increase rapidly with spatial frequency. Thresholds also increase from Y to Cr to Cb, and with orientation from low-pass to horizontal/vertical to diagonal. We describe a mathematical model to predict DWT noise detection thresholds as a function of level, orientation, and display visual resolution. This allows calculation of a "perceptually lossless" quantization matrix for which all errors are in theory below the visual threshold. The model may also be used as the basis for adaptive quantization schemes.

Watson, Andrew B.↗

Exoplanet Detection Synenergy Between Gaia and the WFIRST Coronagraph

Future astrometric detections of exoplanets from the Gaia mission will augment and improve the sample of targets accessible to the Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) on WFIRST. We assessed the joint detection sensitivity of Gaia and WFIRST by modeling random planet populations around nearby (d less than 20 pc), bright (V less than 6) stars, and applying nominal detection thresholds for each mission. Our analysis suggests that only a small number of the new planet detections from Gaia will be favorable for spectroscopic characterization by WFIRST CGI: 1-3 planets, depending on the assumed planet population model. The target stars hosting gas giants detectable to both missions tend to be GK dwarfs with brightness between V = 3-5, and distances within 10 pc. While few in number, these new Gaia-detected exoplanets could be exceptionally valuable targets for WFIRST due to the ability to incorporate astrometric mass estimates into the spectral retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

Zimmerman, Neil T.↗

Powder River Basin Water Resources: Mapping Russian Olive in the Powder River Basin to Inform Invasive Species Management

Since its introduction in the late 1800s, Elaeagnus augustifolia (Russian olive) has become a widespread invasive shrub that poses a threat to native riparian species in the United States by competing with native riparian plants for space and resources. To date, limited information on the distribution of Russian olive in the Powder River Basin of Montana and Wyoming have hampered management efforts and decision making. Here, we detect and model the distribution of Russian Olive using field surveys, ocular sampling, and variables from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) using the Random Forest algorithm. We derived topographic, spectral, and hydrological variables from Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, and SRTM to utilize as model inputs. The team was able to successfully create a spectral Russian olive detection map for the Powder River Basin (RMSE =15.44%, R2 = 0.6482). The team also examined change in stream channel geomorphology from 1984-2020 in a time-series analysis using Landsat visible imagery and the RivMap MATLAB package and found little change. Our results will help our partners at the Powder River County Weed Board, Gay Ranch, United States Geological Survey, and University of Northern Colorado to locate and prioritize areas for riparian habitat restoration and to understand the region’s hydrology and geomorphology.

Catherine Buczek↗

Black Hills Wildfires: Mapping Post-fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-on Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high-severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled additional reforestation sites planted in 2001–2013. In Google Earth Engine (GEE), the field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model. The RF model classified 2021 conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3%. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration.

Casey Menick​↗

Black Hills Wildfires: Mapping Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration using Snow-On Imagery

The 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills of South Dakota was the largest wildfire to date in the region, burning over 83,000 acres of ponderosa pine forest. In collaboration with partners from the United States Forest Service (USFS) Black Hills Experimental Forest, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, and United States Geological Survey Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, we characterized post-fire forest regeneration within high-severity burn patches. We accomplished this by implementing novel conifer detection techniques using a snow index mask to create a winter, snow-on image composite from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. We utilized 2015 USFS stem maps of field-observed regeneration plots and ocularly sampled additional reforestation sites planted in 2001–2013. In Google Earth Engine (GEE), the field data and imagery were used to train a Random Forest (RF) model. The RF model classified 2021 conifer regeneration density as low, medium, or high across the high-severity burn area with an overall accuracy of 81.3%. Approximately 45.9% of the high-severity burn had low or no regeneration (0-40 trees per acre) 20 years post-fire. Given our partners' desire to find easily accessible low conifer regeneration zones, we identified 4,079 acres of priority planting sites that were within 1,500 feet of roads, had not been planted previously, and were larger than 50 acres. This method supports the use of snow-on imagery as a successful technique to identify conifer regeneration.

Casey Menick↗

Direct Simulation of Extinction in a Slab of Spherical Particles

The exact multiple sphere superposition method is used to calculate the coherent and incoherent contributions to the ensemble-averaged electric field amplitude and Poynting vector in systems of randomly positioned nonabsorbing spherical particles. The target systems consist of cylindrical volumes, with radius several times larger than length, containing spheres with positional configurations generated by a Monte Carlo sampling method. Spatially dependent values for coherent electric field amplitude, coherent energy flux, and diffuse energy flux, are calculated by averaging of exact local field and flux values over multiple configurations and over spatially independent directions for fixed target geometry, sphere properties, and sphere volume fraction. Our results reveal exponential attenuation of the coherent field and the coherent energy flux inside the particulate layer and thereby further corroborate the general methodology of the microphysical radiative transfer theory. An effective medium model based on plane wave transmission and reflection by a plane layer is used to model the dependence of the coherent electric field on particle packing density. The effective attenuation coefficient of the random medium, computed from the direct simulations, is found to agree closely with effective medium theories and with measurements. In addition, the simulation results reveal the presence of a counter-propagating component to the coherent field, which arises due to the internal reflection of the main coherent field component by the target boundary. The characteristics of the diffuse flux are compared to, and found to be consistent with, a model based on the diffusion approximation of the radiative transfer theory.

spheres↗