Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “process uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Radiation Therapy (ART) Strategies and Technical Considerations: A State of the ART Review From NRG Oncology

The integration of adaptive radiation therapy (ART), or modifying the treatment plan during the treatment course, is becoming more widely available in clinical practice. ART offers strong potential for minimizing treatment-related toxicity while escalating or de-escalating target doses based on the dose to organs at risk. Yet, ART workflows add complexity into the radiation therapy planning and delivery process that may introduce additional uncertainties. This work sought to review presently available ART workflows and technological considerations such as image quality, deformable image registration, and dose accumulation. Quality assurance considerations for ART components and minimum recommendations are described. Personnel and workflow efficiency recommendations are provided, as is a summary of currently available clinical evidence supporting the implementation of ART. Finally, to guide future clinical trial protocols, an example ART physician directive and a physics template following standard NRG Oncology protocol is provided.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-averse optimization for resilience enhancement of complex engineering systems under uncertainties

With the growth of complexity and extent, large scale interconnected network systems, e.g., transportation networks or infrastructure networks, become more vulnerable to external disturbances. Hence, managing potential disruptive events during the design, operating, and recovery phase of an engineered system and therefore improving the system’s resilience is an important yet challenging task. Here, to ensure system resilience after the occurrence of failure events, this study proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) based restoration framework using heterogeneous dispatchable agents. The scenario-based stochastic optimization (SO) technique is adopted to deal with the inherent uncertainties imposed on the recovery process from nature. Moreover, different from conventional SO using deterministic equivalent formulations, the CVaR risk measure is implemented for this study because of the temporal sparsity of the decision making in applications such as the recovery from extreme events. The resulting restoration framework involves a large-scale MILP problem and thus an adequate decomposition technique i.e. modified Lagrangian dual decomposition, is also employed to achieve tractable computational complexity. Case study results based on the IEEE 37-bus test feeder demonstrate the benefits of using the proposed framework for resilience improvement as well as the advantages of adopting SO formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Correlating results from high resolution EBSD with TEM- and ECCI-based dislocation microscopy: Approaching single dislocation sensitivity via noise reduction

High resolution electron backscatter diffraction (HREBSD), an SEM-based diffraction technique, may be used to measure the lattice distortion of a crystalline material and to infer the geometrically necessary dislocation content. Uncertainty in the image correlation process used to compare diffraction patterns leads to an uneven distribution of measurement noise in terms of the lattice distortion, which results in erroneous identification of dislocation type and density. This work presents a method of reducing noise in HREBSD dislocation measurements by removing the effect of the most problematic components of the measured distortion. The method is then validated by comparing with TEM analysis of dislocation pile-ups near a twin boundary in austenitic stainless steel and with ECCI analysis near a nano-indentation on a tantalum oligocrystal. Finally, the HREBSD dislocation microscopy technique is able to resolve individual dislocations visible in TEM and ECCI and correctly identify their Burgers vectors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Subsurface Flow on Evapotranspiration: A Global Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract Water resources are impacted by water‐energy balance fluxes at the land surface, most notably evapotranspiration ( ET ), the largest component of surface energy balance. While integrated hydrologic models show promise in quantifying the nonlinear dynamics at this interface, the model results are plagued by parametric uncertainties. Given the high computational demand of running multiple parameter spaces of these models, little is known about how these uncertainties propagate into land surface processes. In this work, we perform a global sensitivity analysis by computing Sobol and AMAE indices using a surrogate model constructed with a polynomial chaos expansion to assess the impacts of the subsurface physical properties on ET . We do so by modeling a semisynthetic test case. Our results show that the effects of vertical hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and the water retention curve parameter Van Genuchten α mainly control ET . However, we note that while evaporation ( E ) shows behavior similar to the ET with high sensitivity to the parameters controlling the flow in the unsaturated zone, transpiration ( T ) is very sensitive to the saturated zone parameters and groundwater flow, especially during periods without rain. Our results also show that heterogeneities in land cover impact the flow in the saturated zone. Furthermore, our work demonstrates that reduced‐order models can be developed to make integrated models more accessible for rigorous sensitivity analyses and calibration purposes.

Maina, Fadji Zaouna↗
DOE OSTI2022

Active learning of reactive Bayesian force fields applied to heterogeneous catalysis dynamics of H/Pt

Abstract Atomistic modeling of chemically reactive systems has so far relied on either expensive ab initio methods or bond-order force fields requiring arduous parametrization. Here, we describe a Bayesian active learning framework for autonomous “on-the-fly” training of fast and accurate reactive many-body force fields during molecular dynamics simulations. At each time-step, predictive uncertainties of a sparse Gaussian process are evaluated to automatically determine whether additional ab initio training data are needed. We introduce a general method for mapping trained kernel models onto equivalent polynomial models whose prediction cost is much lower and independent of the training set size. As a demonstration, we perform direct two-phase simulations of heterogeneous H 2 turnover on the Pt(111) catalyst surface at chemical accuracy. The model trains itself in three days and performs at twice the speed of a ReaxFF model, while maintaining much higher fidelity to DFT and excellent agreement with experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lossy compression of statistical data using quantum annealer

Abstract We present a new lossy compression algorithm for statistical floating-point data through a representation learning with binary variables. The algorithm finds a set of basis vectors and their binary coefficients that precisely reconstruct the original data. The optimization for the basis vectors is performed classically, while binary coefficients are retrieved through both simulated and quantum annealing for comparison. A bias correction procedure is also presented to estimate and eliminate the error and bias introduced from the inexact reconstruction of the lossy compression for statistical data analyses. The compression algorithm is demonstrated on two different datasets of lattice quantum chromodynamics simulations. The results obtained using simulated annealing show 3–3.5 times better compression performance than the algorithm based on neural-network autoencoder. Calculations using quantum annealing also show promising results, but performance is limited by the integrated control error of the quantum processing unit, which yields large uncertainties in the biases and coupling parameters. Hardware comparison is further studied between the previous generation D-Wave 2000Q and the current D-Wave Advantage system. Our study shows that the Advantage system is more likely to obtain low-energy solutions for the problems than the 2000Q.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Nucleosythesis in Neutrino-Driven Winds Using the Impact of ({alpha}, xn) Reaction Rates

The lighter heavy elements of the first r-process peak, between strontium and silver, can be synthesized in the moderately neutron-rich neutrino-driven ejecta of either core-collapse supernovae or neutron star mergers via the weak r-process. This nucleosynthesis scenario exhibits uncertainties from the absence of experimental data from (alpha, xn) reactions on neutron-rich nuclei, which are currently based on statistical model estimates. We have performed a new impact study to identify the most important (alpha, xn) reactions that can affect the production of the lighter heavy elements under different astrophysical conditions using new, constrained (alpha, xn) reaction rates based on the Atomki-V2 alpha OMP. Our results show how when reducing the nuclear physics uncertainties, we can use abundance ratios to constrain the astrophysical conditions/environment. This can be achieved in the near future, when the key (alpha, xn) reaction rates will be measured experimentally in radioactive beam facilities.

Psaltis, Athanasios↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aemulus ν: precision halo mass functions in wνCDM cosmologies

Precise and accurate predictions of the halo mass function for cluster mass scales in wνCDM cosmologies are crucial for extracting robust and unbiased cosmological information from upcoming galaxy cluster surveys. Here, we present a halo mass function emulator for cluster mass scales (≳ 1013 M ⊙/h) up to redshift z = 2 with comprehensive support for the parameter space of wνCDM cosmologies allowed by current data. Based on the Aemulus ν suite of simulations, the emulator marks a significant improvement in the precision of halo mass function predictions by incorporating both massive neutrinos and non-standard dark energy equation of state models. This allows for accurate modeling of the cosmology dependence in large-scale structure and galaxy cluster studies. We show that the emulator, designed using Gaussian Process Regression, has negligible theoretical uncertainties compared to dominant sources of error in future cluster abundance studies. Our emulator is publicly available (https://github.com/DelonShen/aemulusnu_hmf), providing the community with a crucial tool for upcoming cosmological surveys such as LSST and Euclid.

cluster counts↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models

This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

LLNL International Working Group on Gamma Spectrometry - Preparation of IDB Dataset

The spectral information and associated metadata, including source information, detector setup, and shielding configuration is described in human readable, comma-separated text files (csv). Five csv files are associated with each material type and include the following information (where [Isotope] is U, Pu, and MOX): [Isotope]_measurement_metadata - Metadata of the measurement configuration, including material composition at time of acquisition (decay corrected from certificate date). Data that is unique to a measurement configuration e.g. detector geometry, source-detector distance, analyzer and other electronics used, attenuating materials are provided in this file. [Isotope]_spectrum_metadata - The information that is unique to the spectrum. This includes detector specifications (e.g. date of acquisition, number of channels, gain (keV/channel), energy range, real and live time, full width half-maximum (FWHM) of the 186 or 208 peak for uranium or plutonium measurements, respectively. [Isotope]_source_metadata - The source material used for the measurement, this includes the ratio and uncertainties of isotopes present and processing information of the material. In addition, the certificate information for the source material is listed. [Isotope]_spectrum_counts_metadata - The counts per channel for each spectrum. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. [Isotope]_spectrum_checksum_metadata The MD5 checksum for the original spectrum file. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. This information is provided to prevent duplication of entries in the database.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Dependent Fission Product Yields

Since 2011, the LLNL-LANL-TUNL collaboration has undertaken experimental measurements of the energy evolution of the chain fission product yields (FPY) from neutron-induced fission of 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu using quasi-monoenergetic neutrons produced at the TUNL 10 MV Van de Graaff accelerator. Our method relies on direct, post-irradiation γ-ray spectroscopy of γ-rays emitted by fission products in actinide targets, with multiple γ-ray spectra taken continuously for a period from a half-hour to three months from the end of irradiation. The main experimental results of this study have been published for eight incident neutron energies of En = 0.58, 1.37, 2.37, 3.6, 4.6, 5.5, 8.9 and 14.8 MeV [1–4]. For each incident energy, approximately 16 cumulative FPYs were determined, nearly all being high-yield fission products, i.e., those occurring in the peaks of the mass distributions. As will be described in this report, our FPY analysis has been significantly improved in every step of the process, reducing the overall systematic uncertainties compared to previously published data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Warming Response of Deep Soil Carbon (LDRD Final Report)

The overarching objective of this LDRD project was to determine the vulnerability of deep soil organic carbon (SOC) to warming in the Sierra Nevada region. Deep soils (>30 cm) store more than 70% of global SOC, and increased SOC decomposition and CO 2 emissions caused by warming are potentially large climate change feedbacks. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, temperatures are expected to increase by 4°C by the year 2100, warming the land and underlying soil, and making understanding of how warming will influence deep SOC storage and persistence critical to projecting the land carbon sink. However, uncertainty remains in our process-level understanding and ability to quantify how projected warming will impact the stability of carbon in deep soils. We investigated warming effects on deep (up to 16 m) SOC stability across climate, vegetation, and soil mineralogy gradients in California. We sampled soils from the surface to bedrock (down to 16 meters) at four sites representing vastly different ecosystems across the Northern and Southern Sierra Nevada mountains. This study quantified the response of SOC concentration, distribution, and vulnerability to warming using a soil incubation experiment to warm the whole soil profile and radiocarbon and stable isotopes to assess which pools are vulnerable to loss under warming. Our results refine our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle by revealing the vulnerability of deep SOC to future changes in climate and how minerology may influence that vulnerability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

LLNL International Working Group on Gamma Spectrometry - Preparation of IDB Dataset [Slides]

The spectral information and associated metadata, including source information, detector setup, and shielding configuration is described in human readable, comma-separated text files (csv). Six csv files are associated with each material type and include the following information (where [Isotope] is U, Pu, and MOX): [Isotope]_measurement_metadata Metadata of the measurement configuration, including material composition at time of acquisition (decay corrected from certificate date). Data that is unique to a measurement configuration e.g. detector geometry, source-detector distance, analyzer and other electronics used, attenuating materials are provided in this file. [Isotope]_spectrum_metadata The information that is unique to the spectrum. This includes detector specifications (e.g. date of acquisition, number of channels, gain (keV/channel), energy range, real and live time, full width half-maximum (FWHM) of the 186 or 208 peak for uranium or plutonium measurements, respectively. [Isotope]_source_metadata The source material used for the measurement, this includes the ratio and uncertainties of isotopes present and processing information of the material. In addition, the certificate information for the source material is listed. [Isotope]_spectrum_counts_metadata The counts per channel for each spectrum. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. [Isotope]_spectrum_checksum_metadata The MD5 checksum for the original spectrum file. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. This information is provided to prevent duplication of entries in the database. [Isotope]_provenance Details on the csv data provider, including laboratory and contract information.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Quantum Leap for Dynamic Radiography

Dynamic radiography techniques have been instrumental in advancing the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) mission since WWII. This paper explores the transformative potential of quantum information science (QIS) to revolutionize dynamic radiography through enhanced image processing, tomographic reconstruction, statistics and uncertainty quantification (UQ), and artificial intelligence integration. By leveraging quantum algorithms to extract previously inaccessible information from existing datasets, this interdisciplinary approach promises unprecedented insights at the intersection of dynamic imaging, artificial intelligence, and quantum information technologies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

The southeast Atlantic is home to well-defined smoke outflow from Africa coinciding vertically with extensive marine boundary-layer cloud decks, both reaching their climatological maxima in spatial extent around September. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional aerosol models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. The sparse airborne observations are first aggregated into 2o grid boxes and into three vertical layers: the cloud-topped marine boundary layer (MBL), the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the 3-6 km layer. Aerosol extensive properties simulated for the entire study region for all September suggest that the 2016 ORACLES observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30% or less. All six models typically place the bottom of the smoke layer at lower altitudes than do the airborne lidar observations by 300-1400 m, whereas model aerosol top heights are within 0-500 m of the observations. All but one of the models that report carbonaceous aerosol masses underestimate the ratio of particulate extinction to the masses, a proxy for mass extinction efficiency, in 3-6 km. Notable findings on individual models include that WRF-CAM5 predicts the mass of black carbon and organic aerosols with minor (~10% or less) biases. GEOS-5 overestimates the carbonaceous particle masses in the MBL by a factor of 3-6. Extinction coefficients in the free troposphere (FT) and above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) are 10-30% lower in WRF-CAM5, 30-50% lower in GEOS-5, 10-40% higher in GEOS-Chem, 10-20% higher in EAM-E3SM except for the practically unbiased 3-6 km extinction, and 20-70% lower in the Unified Model, than the airborne in situ, lidar and sunphotometer measurements. ALADIN-Climate also underestimates the ACAOD, by 30%. GEOS-5 and GEOS-Chem predict carbon monoxide in the MBL with small (10% or less) negative biases, despite their overestimates of carbonaceous aerosol masses. Overall, this study highlights a new approach to utilizing airborne aerosol measurements for model diagnosis.

Shinozuka, Yohei↗
NASA NTRS1974

The dispersion of propellants from aircraft

Two aspects of the dispersion of pollutants from aircraft are reviewed. The first is the dispersal of aircraft exhaust emissions in the vicinity of airports; the second is the dispersal of exhaust trails in the upper atmosphere. Techniques available for modeling this dispersal and how they might be applied to the airport problem are discussed. Field studies of airport pollution are then reviewed to assess current pollutant levels around airports and the aircraft's contribution to those levels. The possibility of contrail formation from jet emissions at high altitude is then considered and the effect of uncertainties in the trial mixing processes evaluated.

Fay, J. A.↗