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At least 523 records · Page 29

Searching for quasar candidates with periodic variations from the Zwicky Transient Facility: results and implications

ABSTRACT We conduct a systematic search for quasars with periodic variations from the archival photometric data of the Zwicky Transient Facility by cross-matching with the quasar catalogues of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Véron-Cetty and Véron. We first select out 184 primitive periodic candidates using the generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram and autocorrelation function and then estimate their statistical significance of periodicity based on two red-noise models, i.e. damped random walk (DRW) and single power-law (SPL) models. As such, we finally identify 106 (DRW) and 86 (SPL) candidates with the most significant periodic variations out of 143 700 quasars. We further compare DRW and SPL models using Bayes factors, which indicate a relative preference of the SPL model for our primitive sample. We thus adopt the candidates identified with SPL as the final sample and summarize its basic properties. We extend the light curves of the selected candidates by supplying other archival survey data to verify their periodicity. However, only three candidates (with 6–8 cycles of periods) meet the selection criteria. This result clearly implies that, instead of being strictly periodic, the variability must be quasi-periodic or caused by stochastic red-noise. This exerts a challenge to the existing search approaches and calls for developing new effective methods.

Chen, Yong-Jie (ORCID:0000000342807673)↗

Dark matter microhalos from simplified models

Here, we introduce simplified models for enhancements in the matter power spectrum at small scales and study their implications for dark matter substructure and gravitational observables. These models capture the salient aspects of a variety of early Universe scenarios that predict enhanced small-scale structure, such as axionlike particle dark matter, light vector dark matter, and epochs of early matter domination. We use a model-independent, semianalytic treatment to map bumps in the matter power spectrum to early forming subsolar mass dark matter halos and estimate their evolution, disruption, and contribution to the substructure of clusters and galaxies at late times. We discuss the sensitivity of gravitational observables, including pulsar timing arrays and caustic microlensing, to both the presence of bumps in the power spectrum and variations in their basic properties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

Variable Renewable Energy Participation in U.S. Ancillary Services Markets: Economic Evaluation and Key Issues

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenues for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015-2019) simulated incremental revenues from regulation market participation were $\$$0.0-2.9/MWh (+0-15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and $\$$1-33/MWh (+1-69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE were able to provide regulation reserves during periods with high regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the value of separate upward and downward regulation products and suggests that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

On-board processing for future satellite communications systems: Satellite-Routed FDMA

A frequency division multiple access (FDMA) 30/20 GHz satellite communications architecture without on-board baseband processing is investigated. Conceptual system designs are suggested for domestic traffic models totaling 4 Gb/s of customer premises service (CPS) traffic and 6 Gb/s of trunking traffic. Emphasis is given to the CPS portion of the system which includes thousands of earth terminals with digital traffic ranging from a single 64 kb/s voice channel to hundreds of channels of voice, data, and video with an aggregate data rate of 33 Mb/s. A unique regional design concept that effectively smooths the non-uniform traffic distribution and greatly simplifies the satellite design is employed. The satellite antenna system forms thirty-two 0.33 deg beam on both the uplinks and the downlinks in one design. In another design matched to a traffic model with more dispersed users, there are twenty-four 0.33 deg beams and twenty-one 0.7 deg beams. Detailed system design techniques show that a single satellite producing approximately 5 kW of dc power is capable of handling at least 75% of the postulated traffic. A detailed cost model of the ground segment and estimated system costs based on current information from manufacturers are presented.

Berk, G.↗

The observation of a coronal transient directed at earth

The paper reports the observation of a large coronal transient that can only be interpreted as a three-dimensional structure. Its form is one which has not been observed before: a gradually expanding, sun-centered disk of excess brightness, whose projected radius increased from 4 to 8 solar radii during 0832-0958 UT on November 27, 1979. This earth-directed transient was the source of an interplanetary shock wave that reached ISEE 3 at 0649 UT, November 30, and earth at 0738 UT, November 30. Fitting the shock speed at ISEE 3 and the average transit speed from the sun to ISEE 3 to a power law of the form V = (V sub 0)(r exp -n), it is found that V sub 0 = 1980 km/s and n = 0.294, in good agreement with shock wave models. The shock speed predicted by the power law at 10 solar radii is 1000 km/s, in good agreement with the estimated frontal speed of the transient.

Howard, R. A.↗

Cosmic temperature fluctuations from two years of COBE differential microwave radiometers observations

The first two years of Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy are analyzed and compared with our previously published first year results. The results are consistent, but the addition of the second year of data increases the precision and accuracy detected CMB temperature fluctuations. The 2 yr 53 GHz data are characterized by rms temperature fluctuations of (delta-T)(sub rms) (7 deg) = 44 +/- 7 micro-K and (delta-T)(sub rms) (10 deg) = 30.5 +/- 2.7 micro-K at 7 deg and 10 deg angular resolution, respectively. The 53 x 90 GHz cross-correlation amplitude at zero lag is C(0)(sup 1/2) = 36 +/- 5 micro-K (68% CL) for the unsmoothed (7 deg resolution) DMR data. We perform a likelihood analysis of the cross-correlation function, with Monte Carlo simulations to infer biases of the method, for a power-law model of initial density fluctuations, P(k) proportional to R(exp n). The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that derived estimates of n are biased by +0.11 +/- 0.01, while the subset of simulations with a low quadrupole (as observed) indicate a bias of +0.31+/- 0.04. Derived values for 68% confidence intervals are given corrected (and not corrected) for our estimated biases. Including the quadrupole anisotropy, the most likely quadrupole-normalized amplitude is Q(sub rms-PS) = 14.3(sup + 5.2 sub -3.3) micro-K (12.8(sup + 5.2 sub -3.3) micro-K0 with a spectral index n = 1.42(sup + 0.49 sub -0.55)(n = 1.53(sup + 0.49 sub -0.55). With n fixed to 1.0 the most likely amplitude is 18.2 +/- 11.5 micro-K (17.4 +/- 1.5 micro-K). The marginal likelihood of n is 1.42 +/- 0.37 (1.53 +/- 0.37). Excluding the quadrupole anisotropy, the most likely quadrupole-normalized amplitude is Q(sub rms-PS) = 17.4(sup + 7.5 sub -5.2) micro-K (15.8(sup + 7.5 sub -5.2) micro-K) with a spectral index n = 1.11(sup + 0.60 sub -0.55) (n = 1.22(sup + 0.60 sub -0.55). With n fixed to 1.0 the most likely amplitude is 18.6 +/- 1.6 micro-K (18.2 +/- 1.6 micro-K). The marginal likelihood of n is 1.11 +/- 0.40 (1.22 +/- 0.40). Our best estimate of the dipole from the 2 yr DMR data is 3.363 +/- 0.024 mK toward Galactic coordinates (l, b) = (264.4 deg +/- 0.2 deg, 48.1 deg +/- 0.4 deg), and our best estimate of the rms quadrupole amplitude in our sky is 6 +/- 3 micro-K (68% CL).

Bennett, C. L.↗

Certainty Equivalence M-MRAC for Systems with Unmatched Uncertainties

The paper presents a certainty equivalence state feedback indirect adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties. The approach is based on the parameter identification (estimation) model, which is completely separated from the control design and is capable of producing parameter estimates as fast as the computing power allows without generating high frequency oscillations. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters.

Unmatched uncertainties↗

Methods and systems for evaluating and improving distribution-grid observability

This document describes systems and techniques for evaluating and improving distribution-grid observability. These systems and techniques allow engineers to quantify the observability of a distribution grid, which represents an ability to combine actual measurements and various types of computations (e.g., analytics, estimators, forecasters), from a system model. Distribution engineers can also identify islands of observability where operating parameters, including voltages, currents, and power flows, can be determined from available sensor readings. By exclusion, distribution engineers can similarly identify areas of the distribution grid with observability deficiencies that may require additional instrumentation to maintain proper operation. Distribution engineers, using an iterative or automated process, can determine the observability of the system model with new or relocated sensors to generate a sensor allocation plan. The sensor allocation plan can indicate the number and location of sensors to either maximize observability for a fixed sensor cost or minimize sensor cost for predetermined observability.

Reiman, Anthony P.↗

Preconceptual Designs of Coupled Power Delivery between a 4-Loop PWR and 100-500 MWe HTSE Plants

This study develops a preconceptual design for the integration between a large-scale high-temperature electrolysis facility and a NPP. Two hydrogen facility sizes are considered: 100 MWnom and 500 MWnom. Both steam supply designs use cold reheat steam extraction as a heat source. A reboiler inside the protected area of the power plant transfers steam heat to the demineralized water supply for the hydrogen plant. After the heat transfer, the extracted steam condenses and returns to the condenser while the process steam routes out of the protected area to the electrolyzers. Electrical power is tapped off from the high voltage side of the GSU transformer, where it is then transported via a 345-kV transmission line to the hydrogen facility. Circuit breakers and disconnects are located at both ends of the transmission line. Step down transformers and miscellaneous switchgear/buses are located at the end of the transmission line inside the HTEF boundary. Control capabilities for the steam interfacing equipment and electrical dispatch are accessible from the Main Control Room, and protective relays for the transmission line are located inside the Relay Room. Computer modeling was performed for the thermal and electrical designs. PEPSE analysis provided the steady-state parameters for thermal extraction from the turbine cycle. These parameters were used to inform transients and size equipment in combination with Applied Flow Technology (AFT) Arrow and AFT Fathom modeling for steam and water piping, respectively. Electrical transients were analyzed using PSCAD. An ETAP model was used to evaluate power flow and short circuit, which enabled the sizing of transformers and protective equipment. A cost estimate was developed for both integration designs when considering plant separation distances of 250 m and 500 m. From these estimates, the modifications for thermal and electrical interfacing of a first-of-a-kind nuclear-integrated hydrogen facility are anticipated to cost between $60–250/kWnom., where the subscript “nom” refers to the nominal size of the hydrogen plant. On a thermal power basis, the thermal power has a cost of approximately $8/MWth for a 500 MWnom high temperature electrolysis plant located 500 m distant from the NPP. That value decreases to approximately $7.5/MWth for a 250 m separation distance between the hydrogen plant and the NPP. This value is lower than previous estimates of the cost of heat extracted from NPPs primarily because in this work the steam is extracted from cold reheat instead of the main steam line, which reduces the cost of the dispatched steam by approximately $3.5/MWth. Nuclear steam extraction can provide a profit avenue for many plants and is not restricted to hydrogen production. Ammonia production, oil refining, and paper production, among other industrial processes all require thermal energy, which can be provided by NPPs. Future work should look further at the details of thermal extraction for a variety of use cases. This can include increased levels of extraction and multiple simultaneous users. Additionally, site-specific studies should be performed to develop industry experience and improve cost accuracy.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Model-Based Diagnostics and Mitigation of Cyber Threats

The report summarizes key tasks performed to develop a toolkit for detecting cyber-attack events in instrumentation and control (I&C) systems of nuclear power plants. The toolkit connects the state-of-the-art GPWR Simulator with the RELAP5 code providing best-estimate nuclear steam supply system (NSSS) analyses, via the application programming interface (API), and allows users to introduce potential cyber-attack scenarios into power plant operational simulation. This summary for the project reflects topical reports submitted during the project as well as a journal paper published in 2022. The focus areas of the summary include: (1) modeling I&C systems for the AP1000 Generation III+ nuclear plant and GPWR simulator, (2) simulation and monitoring of plant response to cyber-attack events, (3) API structure for the toolkit interfacing the GPWR simulator and RELAP5 code, and (4) restructuring of the three-loop NSSS software of GPWR to model the two-loop AP1000 structure. Discussed in some details are (a) the attack tree analysis assessing the susceptibility of the AP1000 I&C system, resulting in reactor trips, in terms of the attack possibility and component sensitivity and (b) realistic estimation of the time to steam generator trip due to cyber-intrusions in the GPWR Simulator. Finally, sample demonstrations of the cyber-security tool kit, in the form of the GPWR-RELAP5 API, are summarized.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

System-Level Comparison of Sodium and Salt Systems in Support of the Gen3 Liquids Pathway

This paper presents the comparison of the annual performance and the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) of two high- temperature solar power tower configurations using a 565MWth chloride salt receiver and a 540 MWth liquid sodium receiver. Each power tower consists of a sodium or salt receiver, a 175 m high concrete tower, and a two-tank chloride salt system for thermal energy storage (TES). The power plants were simulated using SolarTherm to estimate their energy per year, capacity factor, and LCOE. The simulation was verified against the System Advisor Model (SAM), showing that the LCOE calculation differences are within ±1.0%. Results showed that the sodium-receiver system yields 69.60 USD/MWh real LCOE, versus 78.55 USD/MWh for the chloride salt system. Results also showed that sodium wins here due to a smaller and more efficient receiver, enabled by higher flux limits and reduced field size, leading to less mirror reflective area and site improvement cost.

capacity factor↗

ObstacleSense: Low-Power Neuromorphic Vision for Corridor Obstacle Awareness in Low-Level ADAS

The automotive industry’s pursuit of Level 5 autonomy is constrained by substantial perception-compute power requirements, often reaching 1, 000 + watts in full autonomy stacks. Reducing this energy burden requires rethinking perception not only at the high-end autonomy level, but also at the foundational Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) level where low-power, safety-critical sensing can have broad impact. Neuromorphic vision provides a promising starting point: HD Dynamic Vision Sensors (DVS) can operate below 100 mW at the sensor level by reporting only asynchronous brightness changes. However, low-power sensing alone is insufficient if downstream perception reintroduces dense, energy-intensive computation. In particular, many event-driven object-detection pipelines still rely on CNN backbones, while purely spiking alternatives often trade away accuracy or ignore deployment constraints. We introduce ObstacleSense, a highly compact, CNN-free hybrid ANN–SNN framework for Level 0–1 forward-corridor obstacle awareness. Instead of performing full-scene object detection with a convolutional feature backbone, ObstacleSense targets the safety-critical question of whether the ego corridor is occupied and how far the nearest obstacle is. The architecture combines polarity-conditioned event encoding, lightweight temporal spiking dynamics, axial spatial mixing, and coarse-to-fine range estimation within a regular fixed-grid compute pattern. This design avoids the dense CNN backbone commonly used in event-based detection while maintaining a small state footprint suitable for eventual small-FPGA deployment. Before hardware mapping, we evaluate the software implementation using a model-side power proxy derived from MACs, weight and activation traffic, and spiking state updates under shared FP16 assumptions. On simulated CARLA event corpora, the deployment-oriented model achieves 0.9464 objectness F1, 0.9978 grid-level mAP, and 0.8987 m distance Mean Absolute Error at an estimated 1.92 mW proxy cost, while maintaining performance on unseen generalization test sequences.

Johnson-Scott, Zac [ORNL]↗

Tractable Learning in Underexcited Power Grids

Estimating the structure of physical flow networks, such as power grids, is critical to secure delivery of energy. This article discusses statistical structure estimation in power grids in the “underexcited” regime, where a subset of internal nodes has zero injection fluctuations. Prior estimation algorithms based on nodal voltages fail for such grids as the voltage covariance matrix is not invertible. Here, we propose a novel topology learning algorithm for learning underexcited general networks. Our algorithm uses physics-informed conservation laws to first identify the zero-injection buses and their neighbors, and then estimates the remaining edges in the grid. We prove the asymptotic correctness of our algorithm for grids with nonadjacent internal zero-injection nodes. More important, we theoretically analyze our algorithm’s efficacy under noisy measurements, and determine bounds on maximum noise under which asymptotically correct recovery is guaranteed. Our approach is validated through simulations with voltage samples generated on test distribution grids with real injection data and nonlinear power flow models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A vortex sheet based analytical model of the curled wake behind yawed wind turbines

Motivated by the need for compact descriptions of the evolution of non-classical wakes behind yawed wind turbines, we develop an analytical model to predict the shape of curled wakes. Interest in such modelling arises due to the potential of wake steering as a strategy for mitigating power reduction and unsteady loading of downstream turbines in wind farms. We first estimate the distribution of the shed vorticity at the wake edge due to both yaw offset and rotating blades. By considering the wake edge as an ideally thin vortex sheet, we describe its evolution in time moving with the flow. Vortex sheet equations are solved using a power series expansion method, and an approximate solution for the wake shape is obtained. The vortex sheet time evolution is then mapped into a spatial evolution by using a convection velocity. Apart from the wake shape, the lateral deflection of the wake including ground effects is modelled. Our results show that there exists a universal solution for the shape of curled wakes if suitable dimensionless variables are employed. For the case of turbulent boundary layer inflow, the decay of vortex sheet circulation due to turbulent diffusion is included. Finally, we modify the Gaussian wake model by incorporating the predicted shape and deflection of the curled wake, so that we can calculate the wake profiles behind yawed turbines. Model predictions are validated against large-eddy simulations and laboratory experiments for turbines with various operating conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Analysis of Solar Cell Efficiency for Venus Atmosphere and Surface Missions

A simplified model of solar power in the Venus environment is developed, in which the solar intensity, solar spectrum, and temperature as a function of altitude is applied to a model of photovoltaic performance, incorporating the temperature and intensity dependence of the open-circuit voltage and the temperature dependence of the bandgap and spectral response of the cell. We use this model to estimate the performance of solar cells for both the surface of Venus and for atmospheric probes at altitudes from the surface up to 60 km. The model shows that photovoltaic cells will produce power even at the surface of Venus.

Landis, Geoffrey A.↗

The 25 kW power module evolution study. Part 3: Conceptual designs for power module evolutions. Volume 3: Cost estimates

Cost data generated for the evolutionary power module concepts selected are reported. The initial acquisition costs (design, development, and protoflight unit test costs) were defined and modeled for the baseline 25 kW power module configurations. By building a parametric model of this initial building block, the cost of the 50 kW and the 100 kW power modules were derived by defining only their configuration and programmatic differences from the 25 kW baseline module. Variations in cost for the quantities needed to fulfill the mission scenarios were derived by applying appropriate learning curves.

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