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At least 523 records · Page 29

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DPFEHM: a differentiable subsurface physics simulator

The Earth’s subsurface is a key resource that provides energy via fossil fuels and geothermal sources, stores drinking water, and is used in the fight against climate change via carbon sequestration. Simulating the physical processes that occur in the Earth’s subsurface with computers enables better use of this resource. DPFEHM is a Julia package that includes computer models with a focus on the Earth’s subsurface, especially fluid flow, which is critical for the aforementioned applications. DPFEHM is able to solve the groundwater flow equations (single phase flow), Richards equation (air/water), the advection-dispersion equation, and the 2d wave equation. One of the key features of DPFEHM is that it supports automatic differentiation, so it can be integrated into machine learning workflows using frameworks such as Flux or PyTorch. The automatic differentiation capabilities give it the same performance as adjoint methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tethys: A Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Global Water Demand

Humans use water for many important tasks, such as drinking, growing food, and cooling power plants. Since future water demands depend on complex global interactions between economic sectors (e.g., demand for wheat in one country causing demand for water to grow that wheat in another country), it is often modeled at coarse spatial and temporal scales as part of models that account for complex, multi-sector system dynamics. However, models that project future water availability typically simulate physical processes at much finer scales. Tethys enables integration between these kinds of models by downscaling region-scale water demand projections using sector-specific proxies and formulas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

ASGarD: Adaptive Sparse Grid Discretization

Many areas of science exhibit physical processes that are described by high dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs), e.g., the 4D, 5D and 6D models describing magnetized fusion plasmas, models describing quantum chemistry, or derivatives pricing. Such problems are affected by the so-called “curse of dimensionality” where the number of degrees of freedom (or unknowns) required to be solved for scales as N D where N is the number of grid points in any given dimension D. A simple, albeit naive, 6D example is demonstrated in the left panel of Figure 1. With N = 1000 grid points in each dimension, the memory required just to store the solution vector, not to mention forming the matrix required to advance such a system in time, would exceed an exabyte - and also the available memory on the largest of supercomputers available today. The right panel of Figure 1 demonstrates potential savings for a range of problem dimensionalities and grid resolution. While there are methods to simulate such high-dimensional systems, they are mostly based on Monte-Carlo methods, which rely on a statistical sampling such that the resulting solutions include noise. Since the noise in such methods can only be reduced at a rate proportional to $\sqrt{N_p}$ where N p is the number of Monte-Carlo samples, there is a need for continuum, or grid/mesh-based methods for high-dimensional problems, which both do not suffer from noise and bypass the curse of dimensionality. We present a simulation framework that provides such a method using adaptive sparse grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Hadron Polarimetry for the Electron-Ion Collider

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) will be the first collider to use both polarized electron beams and polarized proton and light ion beams. It will therefore offer unique opportunities to study the structure of nucleons and to answer fundamental questions in QCD. The uncertainties on the polarization measurement translate directly into the uncertainties of final physics observables. Hence, a precise measurement of the hadron beam polarization and a good control of systematic uncertainties are critical for the success of the spin program at the EIC. Contrary to the case of electron beam polarimetry, which uses physical processes derived from first principles that allow a high precision extraction of the electron beam polarization, for hadron beams no such process is available. The currently best used methods rely on the process of elastic scattering in the Coulomb-Nuclear Interference (CNI) region, for which there are only effective models available. The experience from RHIC, the only existing polarized proton collider, will be detailed and the challenges of the measurements at the EIC will be addressed. In particular, measurements of the present RHIC polarimeters and simulations of the future EIC polarimeters will be presented.

Nunes, Ana Sofia↗

Development and Validation of a Simulation Tool to Predict the Combined Structural, Electrical, Electrochemical and Thermal Responses of Automotive Batteries

Battery safety is one of the most important design factors of electrified vehicles (EVs) since battery failure may lead to a catastrophic consequence. To improve the safety of battery systems in EVs, battery behaviors under various abuse conditions should be well understood. One way to examine battery response under extreme conditions is to conduct abuse tests in different scenarios. They can provide first-hand pass/fail information on battery safety, but they are usually expensive and time-consuming, which is inconvenient during design iterations and optimization. On the other hand, computational modeling can predict the battery behaviors in a more efficient and cost-effective way, which becomes an important tool to evaluate battery safety. Modeling battery responses and failure is challenging since it involves multiple coupled physical processes, needs to consider complex material properties and is computationally intensive. This project aims to develop a practical simulation tool to predict the combined structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal responses of automotive batteries to crash-induced crush and short circuit and validate it for conditions relevant to automotive crash. Advanced material constitutive models will be utilized to capture the mechanical response of cell components. Moreover, methods will be developed to reduce computational complexity of the model and allow battery safety simulations to extend from cell-level to module/pack level with affordable computational resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Spring 2020 Dissertation Update [Slides]

An update is provided on the dissertation underway and what has been learned thus far. Work thus far: Developed analytic models for each region in the spent fuel cask – Used to identify and explain physical processes which create features in detailed casks; Developed simplified computational models to identify details not seen in analytic models; SC were calculated in the fuel region; The difference in SC’s between the analytic model and the simplified computational model were identified. Outstanding issues: Analysis of analytic models in stainless steel and carbon steel – These materials are thin and have few features (just the slope); Discrepancies between absorption SC’s in fuel; Create a test problem to show the effects of the high energy resonances in the fuel region. Future Work: Sensitivity analysis needs to be continued through the cask – The detailed model will be added to the remaining materials; Sensitivity analysis paper; and, Addressing outstanding issues.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

PETN Exploding Bridgewire (EBW) Detonators: A Review

Exploding bridgewire (EBW) detonators have been used in weapon systems since the 1940s but there is huge debate surrounding how energy is transferred throughout the EBW firing system and the mechanism by which the exploding wire leads explosive detonation. This report summarizes the underpinning technologies and physical processes that are currently understood and reviews the various efforts to quantify the mechanism by which the PETN is initiated. The behavior of the firing system is very well understood and predictable. The energy delivered to the wire has been empirically modelled but further investigation is required to understand the role of material heterogeneities and their effect on initiation. The energy delivered by the exploding wire has been quantified in many studies but it is not possible to correlate these to a particular design or firing regime and thus definitive conclusions are impossible. The energy absorbed by the PETN is also not well understood. Therefore, the initiation mechanism within the PETN EBWs has not been determined for EBW detonators. There is strong evidence that a shock-to-detonation (SDT) mechanism is not the sole cause of initiation. There is insufficient understanding of how electrical sparks transmit energy to PETN to make any judgement regarding the role gas ionization plays. Deflagration-to-detonation (DDT) seems like the most likely candidate for initiation but there is still a great lack of evidence for the presence of this mechanism.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Grid generation, coupling strategies, and spatially-dependent time stepping for ocean-tidal/estuary systems and other ESM components (Final Report)

There are many multiple scale issues in the ocean modeling, including different mesh resolutions (local) and different physical processes (global). In order to gain efficiency and fidelity in modern ESMs, it is vital to develop high quality, highly nonuniform meshes and spatially-dependent time stepping strategies for coupling various climate system components. The USC/FSU team has worked on the design, analysis, and implementation of fast CVT grid generation and novel time- stepping schemes that could address all the requirements for global and regional ocean models on highly nonuniform meshes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Photodamage and Repair in Higher Plant Photosynthesis (Final Technical Report)

Elucidation of the functional properties and structural organization of membrane protein complexes is one of the central objectives of current biochemical investigation. One of the most intriguing aspects of membrane protein function is its role in the mediation of energy transduction in photosynthetic organisms. Light energy, which is the product of a most violent physical process, fusion, is transformed into biological energy equivalents utilized by the photosynthetic cell. This photosynthetic process provides both the carbohydrate that lies at the base of virtually all food chains and, as a byproduct, all of the atmospheric oxygen utilized by heterotrophic organisms. The photosynthetic apparatus, however, is quite susceptible to damage by Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS). These species include O2 ·– , ·OH, H 2 O 2 and 1 O 2 . The production of ROS is an unavoidable byproduct of electron transport under aerobic conditions and these can damage lipids, nucleic acids and proteins. Our research has centered on the identification of amino acid oxidative damage which occurs in the vicinity of photosynthetic energy transfer cofactors. These cofactors participate in excitation energy transfer and linear electron transport within Photosystem II, the Cytochrome b 6 ƒ complex and Photosystem I. Additionally, we have participated in a number of productive collaborations leveraging our expertise in photosynthetic measurements and mass spectrometry to assist other investigators in their research.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Hybrid (PDE+ML) models in the context of land ice modeling

Focal Area(s): Primary focal areas are: predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; advanced methods including network design/optimization/deep learning. Science Challenge: The atmospheric, ocean and ice dynamics components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are governed by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and significant efforts have been made during the last decades to develop such computational models. Here we propose to fundamentally improve these PDE-based codes by enhancing them with Machine Learning (ML) sub-models for complex, poorly understood physical processes in the context of ice sheet modeling. We propose to train these models with a novel approach that allows the assimilation of the different sources of data available (direct/indirect observations and possibly simulation data), improving on existing simplified models. We also highlight computational challenges originating from the coexistence of PDE-based and ML-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Proposed Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State for a Tri-laboratory Collaboration (Working Draft 1.1)

The proposed simple common model for multiphase strength and EoS (CMMP) is meant to be sufficiently simple that each of the collaborating labs can share in a common starting point. Another objective is to start with relatively simple assumptions, which will not necessarily capture details of the physical processes, and incrementally add complexity in order to identify the minimal-needed technical detail. Through this co-evolution of model and experiment, we will better learn the importance of various theoretical approximations and where to invest future resources in experiment and model development. This simple framework is based on pressure and temperature equilibrium of all co-existing phases combined with deviatoric stress averaging through a volume fraction weighted ow stress and a volume fraction weighted shear modulus. Implementations of the framework based on equilibrium phase fractions (i.e. instantaneous kinetic rate) and for finite rate transition kinetics are proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

In-House Developed Multiphysics Simulation for the Performance of Solid Oxide Cells (SOCs)

Reversible solid oxide cells(rSOCs) are an enabling energy storage/production technology for a dynamic grid environment. Reversible operation requires strong working knowledge of fuel cell (SOFC) and electrolyzer (SOEC). Performance degradation of SOECs has been observed; however, the details of physical processes related to the performance degradation remain unknown. Multiphysics simulations were performed to investigate the performance degradation of solid oxide electrolysis cells under various working conditions.

Yang, Tao↗

Investigation on laser absorption and x-ray radiation in microstructured titanium targets heated by short-pulse relativistic laser pulses

The enhancement effect of a microstructured surface on laser absorption and characteristic Kα emission has been investigated by measuring K-shell emission from titanium (Ti) targets irradiated with high-intensity (~10 20 W cm -2 ), subpicosecond (500 fs) laser pulses. The experimental results indicate a modest enhancement (1.6×) of Kα emission from microstructured targets compared to flat foils, but with a similar intensity and profile of Heα and Li-like satellites. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are implemented to further understand the underlying physical processes in the laser interaction with both targets, interpreting the mechanisms responsible for the Kα enhancement. The reasons for the lower-than-expected enhancement of Kα emission are discussed. The rapid heating of the bulk plasma might result in the premature shutdown of Kα emission before the thermalization of hot electrons or even the end of laser pulses, suggesting that the use of Kα emission as a diagnostic of the hot-electron yield or relaxation could lead to a misinterpretation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) Value-Added Product Based on the lagtraj Framework

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) large-scale forcing data developed based on the constrained variational analysis (VARANAL) value-added product (VAP) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001, Xie et al. 2004, Tang et al. 2019) has been widely used for single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulation models (LESs) to understand and improve physical processes in models. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM user facility conducted several major field campaigns using ship-based moving observational platforms. For example, the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) field campaign focused on the role of subtropical marine-boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign aimed to improve understanding of the coupled climate systems in the Arctic. Observations from moving platforms are critical to provide a comprehensive characterization of coupled-system processes associated with all stages of the cloud and/or sea-ice life cycle. Traditional ARM large-scale forcing data have been developed at fixed locations. They need to be extended to include these moving platforms to address data needs for ship-based field campaigns or to support LES modeling in a Lagrangian framework. With these considerations in mind, we develop ARM-type Lagrangian large-scale forcing data sets based on the lagtraj framework (Boeing et al. 2020) with notable enhancements in generating forcings that are more suitable for ARM field campaigns. The lagtraj is a novel tool that generates forcings for LES and SCM simulation in both Lagrangian and Eulerian perspective. This technical report focuses on the major changes we performed on the lagtraj algorithm and provides an overview of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) value-added products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Exploring the Nature of Neutrinos with the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE)

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation experimental program designed to study the behaviour of neutrino oscillation. DUNE will utilize a neutrino beam originating at Fermilab, near Chicago, and will leverage a detector at Fermilab (Near Detector) and a detector 1300 km away in South Dakota (Far Detector), south of Saskatchewan. In the first phase of DUNE, its Far Detector will comprise of two 10,000 ton (fiducial) liquid argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) modules – powerful tracking calorimeter detectors – placed nearly a mile underground. With this large, sensitive, underground detector, DUNE aims to collect a high statistics and pure sample of neutrinos at the Far Detector. This setup also offers the potential to study non-beam physical processes via e.g. neutrinos produced in the atmosphere, supernova neutrino bursts, and/or solar neutrinos, etc. A second phase will aim to add more detector mass and expand the program. The Near Detector will consist of a LAr TPC module as well: critical to constraining systematic uncertainties in the oscillation analysis. However, this LAr TPC will have a novel design using a pixel-based readout instead of the traditional wire-based readout. This and the segmentation of the LAr TPC into multiple units are crucial in mitigating the high multiplicity of neutrino interactions expected in any readout window given its proximity to the beam. The Near Detector will feature additional components and capability beyond the LAr TPC, allowing one to deeply characterize the neutrino flux. Due to the complexity of this experimental program, several smaller-scale prototype detectors have been operating to test, validate, and improve both the technical designs and software for processing and analyzing events. By operating in charged particle test beams or neutrino beams, several of the prototypes are also capable of producing valuable results. Canadian institutions are involved in the realization of the DUNE through efforts with both the Near and Far Detectors and prototypes. DUNE is anticipated to begin operating near the end of this decade/the beginning of the next. This talk will focus on the overall DUNE program, for example its ultimate plans, status, and the efforts with prototypes.

Howard, Bruce [York U., Canada; Fermilab]↗