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At least 523 records · Page 29

Resource distribution under spatiotemporal uncertainty of disease spread: Stochastic versus robust approaches

We consider the problem of optimizing locations of distribution centers (DCs) and plans for distributing resources such as test kits and vaccines, under spatiotemporal uncertainties of disease spread and demand for the resources. We aim to balance the operational cost (including costs of deploying facilities, shipping, and storage) and quality of service (reflected by demand coverage), while ensuring equity and fairness of resource distribution across multiple populations. We compare a sample-based stochastic programming (SP) approach with a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) approach using a moment-based ambiguity set. Numerical studies are conducted on instances of distributing COVID-19 vaccines in the United States and test kits, to compare SP and DRO models with a deterministic formulation using estimated demand and with the current resource distribution plans implemented in the US. We demonstrate the results over distinct phases of the pandemic to estimate the cost and speed of resource distribution depending on scale and coverage, and show the “demand-driven” properties of the SP and DRO solutions. Furthermore, our results further indicate that if the worst-case unmet demand is prioritized, then the DRO approach is preferred despite of its higher overall cost. Nevertheless, the SP approach can provide an intermediate plan under budgetary restrictions without significant compromises in demand coverage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Gravitational Waves from Nnaturalness

Abstract We study the prospects for probing the Nnaturalness solution to the electroweak hierarchy problem with future gravitational wave observatories. Nnaturalness, in its simplest incarnation, predictsNcopies of the Standard Model with varying Higgs mass parameters. We show that in certain parameter regions the scalar reheaton transfers a substantial energy density to the sector with the smallest positive Higgs squared mass while remaining consistent with bounds on additional effective relativistic species. In this sector, all six quarks are much lighter than the corresponding QCD confinement scale, allowing for the possibility of a first-order chiral symmetry-breaking phase transition and an associated stochastic gravitational wave signal. We consider several scenarios characterizing the strongly-coupled phase transition dynamics and estimate the gravitational wave spectrum for each. Pulsar timing arrays (SKA), spaced-based interferometers (BBO, Ultimate-DECIGO,μAres, asteroid ranging), and astrometric measurements (THEIA) all have the potential to explore new regions of Nnaturalness parameter space, complementing probes from next generation cosmic microwave background radiation experiments.

Physics↗

Node-degree aware edge sampling mitigates inflated classification performance in biomedical random walk-based graph representation learning

Motivation: Graph representation learning is a family of related approaches that learn low-dimensional vector representations of nodes and other graph elements called embeddings. Embeddings approximate characteristics of the graph and can be used for a variety of machine-learning tasks such as novel edge prediction. For many biomedical applications, partial knowledge exists about positive edges that represent relationships between pairs of entities, but little to no knowledge is available about negative edges that represent the explicit lack of a relationship between two nodes. For this reason, classification procedures are forced to assume that the vast majority of unlabeled edges are negative. Existing approaches to sampling negative edges for training and evaluating classifiers do so by uniformly sampling pairs of nodes. Results: We show here that this sampling strategy typically leads to sets of positive and negative examples with imbalanced node degree distributions. Using representative heterogeneous biomedical knowledge graph and random walk-based graph machine learning, we show that this strategy substantially impacts classification performance. If users of graph machine-learning models apply the models to prioritize examples that are drawn from approximately the same distribution as the positive examples are, then performance of models as estimated in the validation phase may be artificially inflated. We present a degree-aware node sampling approach that mitigates this effect and is simple to implement. Availability and implementation: Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/monarch-initiative/negativeExampleSelection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Adaptive Tracking Algorithm for Convection in Simulated and Remote Sensing Data

A robust and computationally efficient object tracking algorithm is developed by incorporating various tracking techniques. Physical properties of the objects, such as brightness temperature or reflectivity, are not considered. Therefore, the algorithm is adaptable for tracking convection-like features in simulated data and remotely sensed two-dimensional images. In this algorithm, a first guess of the motion, estimated using the Fourier phase shift, is used to predict the candidates for matching. A disparity score is computed for each target–candidate pair. The disparity also incorporates overlapping criteria in the case of large objects. Then the Hungarian method is applied to identify the best pairs by minimizing the global disparity. The high-disparity pairs are unmatched, and their target and candidate are declared expired and newly initiated objects, respectively. They are tested for merger and split on the basis of their size and overlap with the other objects. The sensitivity of track duration is shown for different disparity and size thresholds. The report highlights the algorithm’s ability to study convective life cycles using radar and simulated data over Darwin, Australia. The algorithm skillfully tracks individual convective cells (a few pixels in size) and large convective systems. The duration of tracks and cell size are found to be lognormally distributed over Darwin. The evolution of size and precipitation types of isolated convective cells is presented in the Lagrangian perspective. This algorithm is part of a vision for a modular platform [viz., TINT is not TITAN (TINT) and Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac)] that will evolve into a sustainable choice to analyze atmospheric features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improbability of Post-Closure Criticality in Array of Transuranic Waste Containers after Compaction by Salt Creep at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Based on the rationale presented, post-closure nuclear criticality is improbable when room closure compacts containers disposing transuranic (TRU) waste emplaced at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), an operating repository in bedded salt in southeastern New Mexico. As described in the original WIPP certification, a qualitative estimate of the probability of post-closure criticality in TRU waste produced from atomic energy defense activities has been low either because remote-handled TRU waste canisters are neutronically isolated by the bedded salt or because the low fissile mass in an array of contact-handled TRU waste drums cannot be compacted sufficiently by room closure from salt creep. These situations are still valid for the majority of TRU waste that is disposed at WIPP without any disposal constraints, as updated herein. This report also qualitatively evaluates the probability of criticality after disposal of TRU waste in pipe overpack containers (POC) where every POC in a shipment may have the maximum 200 fissile gram equivalent of 239Pu content. The probability of criticality for a disposal room filled with POCs is estimated during four representative phases of repository evolution: (1) a large salt block falls onto POCs in the first 20 years, (2) salt creep closes a disposal room in the first 1000 years without brine seepage and subsequent gas generation, which permits maximum compaction, (3) some brine seepage occurs into the closed room, which initiates consumption of the fiberboard (cellulose) impact absorber in the POC in the second 1000 years, and (4) full brine inundation of a room and consumption of all fiberboard thereafter. Salt-block fall in the first phase does not greatly disrupt three tiers of POCs. The compacted spacing of POCs in the later three repository conditions is calculated through high-fidelity, geomechanical modeling. Criticality evaluation of compacted 200-g 239 Pu spheres at the compacted spacing shows that neither 12-inch nor 6-inch POCs are critical after the first 1000 years, the second 1000 years, or thereafter as the sea of reflector material changes to represent the three repository conditions. Specifically, fiberboard and iron isolates 239 Pu while dry, and brine reduces the reactivity when a room is partially and fully inundated. Because POC behavior bounds behavior of other standard TRU waste containers, post-closure criticality caused by room closure compacting containers is omitted in the performance assessments for the 2019 and 2026 WIPP compliance re-certification applications to the US Environmental Protection Agency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Application of the adiabatic-nuclei theory to vibrational excitation.

The adiabatic-nuclei theory is shown to be quantitatively applicable to vibrational excitation of diatomic molecules by electron impact. When the dependence of the fixed-nuclei phase shifts on internuclear separation is approximated by a two-term Taylor series, the resulting formulas are transparent and easily evaluated. Application to e-H2 excitation is made, phase-shift derivatives are estimated, and the theory is found to fit experimental data.

Faisal, F. H. M.↗

Elasticity of some mantle crystal structures. I - Pleonaste and hercynite spinel.

The elasticity of high-pressure mantle phases can be characterized by using data for chemically similar crystal compounds. The single-crystal elastic constants are determined as a function of pressure and temperature for pleonaste spinel and at room conditions for hercynite spinel. The bulk modulus increases from 1.95 Mb for pleonaste spinel to 2.10 Mb for hercynite spinel. Low or negative values of the pressure derivatives of shear constants are characteristic of the spinel structure and imply a low kinetic barrier to phase transformations and diffusion. Compressional and shear velocities of the spinel phase of olivine are estimated as a function of mean atomic weight by using the pleonaste and hercynite data.

Wang, H.↗

Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics

This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.

Rino, C. L.↗

The effect of temperature and pressure on the distribution of iron group elements between metal and olivine phases in the process of differentiation of protoplanetary material

The distribution patterns of Ni, Co, Mn, and Cr were studied in olivines of various origins: from meteorites (chondrites, achondrites, pallasites), which are likely analogs of the protoplanetary material, to peridotite inclusions in kimberlite pipes, which are analogs of mantle material. According to X-ray microanalysis data, nickel is concentrated in peridotite olivines, while manganese is concentrated in meteoritic olivines. The maximum chromium content was found in ureilites, which were formed under reducing conditions. Experiments at pressures of 20 to 70 kbar and temperatures of 1100 to 2000 C have shown that in a mixture of olivine and Ni metal or NiO, nickel enters the silicate phase, displacing Fe into the metallic phase. Equilibrium temperatures were estimated from the Fe, Ni distribution coefficients between the metal and olivine: 1500 K for pallasites, 1600 K for olivine-bronzite H6 chondrites, 1200 K for olivine-hypersthene L6, 900 K for LL6, and 1900 K for ureilites (at P = 1 atm). The equilibrium conditions of peridotites are close to T = 1800 K and P over 100 kbar. It is concluded that there is a sharp difference between the conditions of differentiation of the protoplanetary material at the time meteorites were formed and the conditions of differentiation of the planets into concentric layers.

Vinogradov, A. P.↗

Geometric and rediametric distortion in spaceborne SAR imagery

Distortions inherent on synthetic aperture radio (SAR) imagery and the development to date of unsupervised postprocessing rectification techniques are described. The geometric distortion can be divided into two categories: (1) distortion derived from the radar viewing geometry, this includes such effects as ground range nonlinearities, radar foreshortening and radar layover; (2) distortion introduced during the data processing, these distortions result from approximations made during the correlation such as in estimation of the target phase history, or compensation for the earth rotation. The processor induced distortions depends on the specific correlation algorithm used for image formation. The effects are addressed on the image product resulting from assumptions during the processing and it specifically considers distortions inherent in digital imagery produced by the digital image processor.

Curlander, J. C.↗

Solar-flare-induced Forbush decreases - Dependence on shock wave geometry

It is argued that the principal mechanism for the association of Forbush decreases with the passage of a solar flare shock wave is prolonged containment of cosmic ray particles behind the flare compression region, which acts as a semipermeable obstacle to particle motion along the field lines, leading to additional adiabatic cooling of the particles. Liouville's theorem is used to calculate the instantaneous distribution function at 1 AU for each particle arriving at the earth. By averaging over a large number of individual estimates, a representative estimate of the omnidirectional phase space density and the corresponding particle intensity is obtained. The energy change of individual particles at the shocks is found to be small in comparison to the energy lost by adiabatic cooling of the cosmic rays between the shock wave and the sun. The effects of particle rigidity, diffusion coefficient, and flare longitude on the magnitude of the Forbush decrease are quantitatively investigated.

Thomas, B. T.↗

Galileo probe relay receiver - Acquisition and tracking

The probe-to-orbiter data link for the Jovian mission uses a Manchester encoded BPSK waveform which is demodulated by the Galileo probe relay receiver. Signal acquisition and tracking consists of a sequential probability ratio signal search, frequency acquisition with a least-squares estimator, wide-band phase lock acquisition, and a self-regulating mode control. A discrete Fourier transform serves as the basic mechanism to generate the algorithms that provide this orderly transition to phase tracking. Acquisition and tracking is addressed in this paper with emphasis on key algorithms, rationale, and theoretical/measured performance.

Von Der Embse, U. A.↗

Relationship between Allan variances and Kalman Filter parameters

A relationship was constructed between the Allan variance parameters (H sub z, H sub 1, H sub 0, H sub -1 and H sub -2) and a Kalman Filter model that would be used to estimate and predict clock phase, frequency and frequency drift. To start with the meaning of those Allan Variance parameters and how they are arrived at for a given frequency source is reviewed. Although a subset of these parameters is arrived at by measuring phase as a function of time rather than as a spectral density, they all represent phase noise spectral density coefficients, though not necessarily that of a rational spectral density. The phase noise spectral density is then transformed into a time domain covariance model which can then be used to derive the Kalman Filter model parameters. Simulation results of that covariance model are presented and compared to clock uncertainties predicted by Allan variance parameters. A two state Kalman Filter model is then derived and the significance of each state is explained.

Vandierendonck, A. J.↗

First plasma wave observations of Uranus

Plasma wave data collected by instrumentation on Voyager 2 as it passed Uranus magnetosphere are discussed. Radio signals at 31.1 and 56.2 kHz were detected 5 days from closest approach and were buried in a burst of electrostatic noise as the spacecraft crossed the bow shock 10 hr before closest approach. The noise arose from electrons escaping the bow shock into the solar wind. Electric field intensities downstream of the shock were reduced, a situation similar to those observed around Saturn and Jupiter. Whistler-mode hiss and chorus emissions were prominent within the magnetosphere at less than 8 Uranus radii, a region where particle detectors registered intense energetic electron fluxes. Also, micron-sized particle impacts at a rate of 30-50 impacts/sec occurred when passing through the ring plane. The duration of the micro-impact phase was sufficient to estimate the ring thickness as about 4000 km.

Gurnett, D. A.↗

Satellite sensing of aerosol absorption

A method is developed for remote sensing of aerosol absorption from satellite images of the earth's surface. The method is based on the measurement of the change in the upward radiances between a clear and a hazy day over a varying surface reflectance. For a zero change balance between brightening due to scattering and darkening due to absorption and scattering is reached. This balance is utilized via a radiative transfer model to derive the aerosol single-scattering albedo. A sensitivity study is performed, and the method is tested against laboratory measurements. It is suggested that for the case of haze introduced on top of an existing background aerosol and with a fair estimate of the scattering phase function, the error in the remotely sensed single-scattering albedo is in the range of 0.03-0.05. The main errors in the method arise from variations in the surface reflectance between the clear and the hazy days, uncertainty in the scattering phase function, and variation of the aerosol and gaseous absorption between these two days. If the satellite calibration varies with time, the measurements of single-scattering albedo can be substantially affected.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

Navigation with noncoherent data - A demonstration for VEGA Venus flyby phase

Deep Space navigation with noncoherent (one-way) data types is demonstrated for the VEGA Venus flyby phase under extreme conditions. Estimates and statistics are computed using one-way Doppler and wideband Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data. The behavior of the onboard oscillator is modeled for both spacecraft to obtain useful orbit determination results. Even with this limitation, it is demonstrated that one-way data solutions are comparable with the solutions using both Soviet sparse coherent (two-way) and wideband VLBI data. During the useful life time of VEGA balloons, the two solutions differ by a maximum of 4.7 km in position and 7.6 cm/sec in velocity for VEGA 1 and by a maximum of 8 km and 42 cm/sec for VEGA 2.

Bhat, Ramachandra S.↗

Superfluid Helium Tanker (SFHT) study

Replenishment of superfluid helium (SFHe) offers the potential of extending the on-orbit life of observatories, satellite instruments, sensors and laboratories which operate in the 2 K temperature regime. A reference set of resupply customers was identified as representing realistic helium servicing requirements and interfaces for the first 10 years of superfluid helium tanker (SFHT) operations. These included the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF), the Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF), the Particle Astrophysics Magnet Facility (Astromag), and the Microgravity and Materials Processing Sciences Facility (MMPS)/Critical Point Phenomena Facility (CPPF). A mixed-fleet approach to SFHT utilization was considered. The tanker permits servicing from the Shuttle cargo bay, in situ when attached to the OMV and carried to the user spacecraft, and as a depot at the Space Station. A SFHT Dewar ground servicing concept was developed which uses a dedicated ground cooling heat exchanger to convert all the liquid, after initial fill as normal fluid, to superfluid for launch. This concept permits the tanker to be filled to a near full condition, and then cooled without any loss of fluid. The final load condition can be saturated superfluid with any desired ullage volume, or the tank can be totally filed and pressurized. The SFHT Dewar and helium plumbing system design has sufficient component redundancy to meet fail-operational, fail-safe requirements, and is designed structurally to meet a 50 mission life usage requirement. Technology development recommendations were made for the selected SFHT concept, and a Program Plan and cost estimate prepared for a phase C/D program spanning 72 months from initiation through first launch in 1997.

Eberhardt, Ralph N.↗