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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of Low Altitude Cloud Amount Using CALIPSO Observations

Clouds strongly modulate the transfer of solar and thermal radiation within the atmosphere. Changes in the distribution and properties of clouds in a changing climate represent climate feedbacks affecting climate sensitivity, but the predicted responses of clouds from current climate models are inconsistent. Of particular concern is the response of low clouds, and it is recognized that proper representation of low clouds in global models is in need of improvement. Accurate satellite cloud climatologies are necessary to evaluate model performance, but existing climatologies require validation and are inadequate in some respects for model evaluation. CALIPSO and CloudSat have been acquiring high vertical resolution cloud profiles since launch in 2006. These global cloud datasets represent a new tool for evaluation of both models and existing satellite climatologies. While a recently available merged CALIPSO-CloudSat cloud climatology provides the most comprehensive view of global 3-D cloud distribution, the CALIPSO dataset set on its own has several unique characteristics, including profiles of the atmospheric boundary layer with 30 meter vertical resolution. In this paper we investigate the use of CALIPSO data to characterize boundary layer clouds, looking toward the development of a reliable global dataset suitable for evaluation of model performance.

Winker, Dave↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmosphere Modeling and Performance Sensitivity for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System

The Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) mission is a key element of the joint NASA-European Space Agency (ESA) planned Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign. The CCRS assembled Earth Entry System (EES) will enter the mission’s final segment in its Approach, Entry, Descent, and Landing (AEDL) Phase. The EES AEDL aims to deliver a highly reliable, safe, and accurate return while maintaining strict containment assurance targets established by the campaign. As currently designed, the EES would be the first fully passive sample return capsule with no parachute or onboard control system, prompting a significant effort in Earth atmosphere characterization and modeling. Earth’s atmosphere, specifically winds, have a strong influence on EES flight mechanics and landing footprint during its free fall landing. This paper describes Earth atmosphere modeling, atmosphere characterization, and performance sensitivities incorporated into the teams’s efforts to ensure AEDL success. By utilizing high resolution balloon radiosondes, analyzing wind structural and distributional compositions, and investigating flight mechanics sensitivities, the AEDL atmosphere team has been able to better understand and simulate local wind conditions at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Utilizing tools such as horizontal turbulent kinetic energy, vertical wind shear, or integrated wind, the team have been able to reveal valuable information about wind profiles in a deeper context than previously conducted, ultimately improving understanding of AEDL flight mechanics sensitivity and EES design.

Kaustubh Ray↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Technical Expertise and Capability Evolution in Research Communities Using Dynamic Graph Transformers

The ability to anticipate global technical expertise and capability evolution trends is essential for national and global security, especially in safety-critical domains such as nuclear nonproliferation (NN) and rapidly emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI). Here, in this work, we extend traditional statistical relational learning approaches (e.g., link prediction in collaboration networks) and formulate a problem of anticipating technical expertise and capability evolution using dynamic heterogeneous graph representations. We develop novel capabilities to forecast collaboration patterns, authorship behavior, and technical capability evolution at different granularities (e.g., scientist and institution levels) in two distinct research fields. We implement a dynamic graph transformer (DGT) neural architecture, which pushes the state-of-the-art graph neural network models by: 1) forecasting heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous) nodes and edges; and 2) relying on both discrete- and continuous-time inputs. We demonstrate that our DGT models predict collaboration, partnership, and expertise patterns with 0.26, 0.73, and 0.53 mean reciprocal rank values for AI and 0.48, 0.93, and 0.22 for NN domains. DGT model performance exceeds the best-performing static graph baseline models by 30%–80% across AI and NN domains. Our findings demonstrate that DGT models boost inductive task performance when previously unseen nodes appear in the test data for the domains with emerging collaboration patterns (e.g., AI). Specifically, models accurately predict which established scientists will collaborate with early career scientists and vice versa in the AI domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1973

Analyses of flight model spacecraft performance during thermal-vacuum tests

In 1968 a study of the thermal-vacuum test results from 11 flight model spacecraft was published in NASA Technical Note TN D-4908. A major interest then was the relationship of malfunctions to their times of occurrence in test. From that study conclusions were drawn with respect to the length of time required for an adequate thermal-vacuum test of flight model spacecraft. A serious limitation on the study was the small amount of documented data available. The purpose of the present report is to update and to extend the findings of that study. The test results of 39 spacecraft, compared with the test results of 11 spacecraft used in the earlier study, now provide a better basis for the analysis. The new data were developed for analysis in the same manner as for the 1968 report, in order to facilitate comparison of the two studies. However, the larger data base made additional types of analyses worthwhile, and the present results are a significant extension of the earlier work.

Heuser, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Flight-test determination of aircraft cruise characteristics using acceleration and deceleration techniques

A flight-test technique has been developed under NASA Dryden sponsorship NSG 4028 to predict aircraft cruise performance characteristics. The technique used acceleration and deceleration maneuvers to define baseline aerodynamic and propulsion system characteristics, which were then input to a performance modeling prediction program. Conventional stabilized 'speed power' tests, which are normally used for cruise performance definition, can comprise a large portion of the flight time in a program. A significant reduction in flight time was estimated using the performance modeling approach with associated savings in cost and schedule. A 20-h verification flight-test program was accomplished.

Yechout, T. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture

The design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture is described. The design is based on a prevalidation methodology that used both reliability and performance tools. An account is given of the motivation for the final design and problems associated with both reliability and performance modeling. The appendices contain a listing of the code for both the reliability and performance model used in the design.

Cohen, Gerald C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗
DOE OSTI2021

Solar Performance Insight (Final Report)

The PV Operations and Maintenance (O&M) service industry lacks an affordable, well-documented, intuitive PV modeling and analytics tool to calculate modeled performance from actual data from multiple data acquisition systems (DAS). We envision a performance modeling and analytics platform built on open-source, extensible, community-maintained code. The key innovation is the community-driven development of pvlib python delivered through a lightweight web service to provide configurable, consistent and reproducible PV modeling for O&M providers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

A system performance throughput model applicable to advanced manned telescience systems

As automated space systems become more complex, autonomous, and opaque to the flight crew, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine whether the total system is performing as it should. Some of the complex and interrelated human performance measurement issues are addressed that are related to total system validation. An evaluative throughput model is presented which can be used to generate a human operator-related benchmark or figure of merit for a given system which involves humans at the input and output ends as well as other automated intelligent agents. The concept of sustained and accurate command/control data information transfer is introduced. The first two input parameters of the model involve nominal and off-nominal predicted events. The first of these calls for a detailed task analysis while the second is for a contingency event assessment. The last two required input parameters involving actual (measured) events, namely human performance and continuous semi-automated system performance. An expression combining these four parameters was found using digital simulations and identical, representative, random data to yield the smallest variance.

Haines, Richard F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Partial Least Squares, Experimental Design, and Near-Infrared Spectrophotometry for the Remote Quantification of Nitric Acid Concentration and Temperature

Near-infrared spectrophotometry and partial least squares regression (PLSR) were evaluated to create a pleasantly simple yet effective approach for measuring HNO3 concentration with varying temperature levels. A training set, which covered HNO3 concentrations (0.1–8 M) and temperature (10–40 °C), was selected using a D-optimal design to minimize the number of samples required in the calibration set for PLSR analysis. The top D-optimal-selected PLSR models had root mean squared error of prediction values of 1.4% for HNO 3 and 4.0% for temperature. The PLSR models built from spectra collected on static samples were validated against flow tests including HNO 3 concentration and temperature gradients to test abnormal conditions (e.g., bubbles) and the model performance between sample points in the factor space. Based on cross-validation and prediction modeling statistics, the designed near-infrared absorption approach can provide remote, quantitative analysis of HNO 3 concentration and temperature for production-oriented applications in facilities where laser safety challenges would inhibit the implementation of other optical techniques (e.g., Raman spectroscopy) and in which space, time, and/or resources are constrained. The experimental design approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the training set and maintained or improved PLSR model performance, which makes the described chemometric approach more amenable to nuclear field applications.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Liquid rocket performance computer model with distributed energy release

Development of a computer program for analyzing the effects of bipropellant spray combustion processes on liquid rocket performance is described and discussed. The distributed energy release (DER) computer program was designed to become part of the JANNAF liquid rocket performance evaluation methodology and to account for performance losses associated with the propellant combustion processes, e.g., incomplete spray gasification, imperfect mixing between sprays and their reacting vapors, residual mixture ratio striations in the flow, and two-phase flow effects. The DER computer program begins by initializing the combustion field at the injection end of a conventional liquid rocket engine, based on injector and chamber design detail, and on propellant and combustion gas properties. It analyzes bipropellant combustion, proceeding stepwise down the chamber from those initial conditions through the nozzle throat.

Combs, L. P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial modeling of near subsurface temperatures of the contiguous United States for assessment of materials degradation

Abstract Understanding subsurface temperature variations is crucial for assessing material degradation in underground structures. This study maps subsurface temperatures across the contiguous United States for depths from 50 to 3500 m, comparing linear interpolation, gradient boosting (LightGBM), neural networks, and a novel hybrid approach combining linear interpolation with LightGBM. Results reveal heterogeneous temperature patterns both horizontally and vertically. The hybrid model performed best achieving a root mean square error of 2.61 °C at shallow depths (50–350 m). Model performance generally decreased with depth, highlighting challenges in deep temperature prediction. State-level analyses emphasized the importance of considering local geological factors. This study provides valuable insights for designing efficient underground facilities and infrastructure, underscoring the need for depth-specific and region-specific modeling approaches in subsurface temperature assessment.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Software Cost Estimation Model: An Analogy Based Estimation Model

The cost estimation of software development activities is increasingly critical for large scale integrated projects such as those at DOD and NASA especially as the software systems become larger and more complex. As an example MSL (Mars Scientific Laboratory) developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory launched with over 2 million lines of code making it the largest robotic spacecraft ever flown (Based on the size of the software). Software development activities are also notorious for their cost growth, with NASA flight software averaging over 50% cost growth. All across the agency, estimators and analysts are increasingly being tasked to develop reliable cost estimates in support of program planning and execution. While there has been extensive work on improving parametric methods there is very little focus on the use of models based on analogy and clustering algorithms. In this paper we summarize our findings on effort/cost model estimation and model development based on ten years of software effort estimation research using data mining and machine learning methods to develop estimation models based on analogy and clustering. The NASA Software Cost Model performance is evaluated by comparing it to COCOMO II, linear regression, and K-­ nearest neighbor prediction model performance on the same data set.

Hihn, Jairus↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Data-Driven Models for Performance Prediction and Chemical Dosing of a Full-Scale Controlled Phosphorus Precipitation Reactor

This study evaluated the use of data-driven models to improve control of a struvite precipitation reactor that removes phosphorus from wastewater while producing a fertilizer product. The researchers developed predictive models for influent orthophosphate concentration, effluent orthophosphate concentration, and phosphorus removal using operational data from a full-scale MagPrex™ reactor at a water resource recovery facility in Denver, Colorado. Model predictions were used to recommend magnesium chloride dosing adjustments needed to achieve a target effluent phosphorus concentration. Several machine learning approaches were tested, with ridge regression providing the best predictions for influent orthophosphate concentration and phosphorus removal, and XGBoost providing the best predictions for effluent orthophosphate concentration. Simulation results indicated that the decision-support approach could correctly identify dosing adjustments in most cases and reduce chemical use. Full-scale implementation achieved lower accuracy due to changing operating conditions and limited historical data in some operating ranges. Here, the results demonstrate the potential of data-driven tools to support phosphorus recovery process control while also identifying practical limitations that affect deployment in full-scale systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1991

A two-equation turbulence model for compressible flows

A k-epsilon model of turbulence that accounts for pressure gradients and compressibility effects is presented. To correct the degradation of k-epsilon model performance when pressure gradients are introduced, an extra term is added to the dissipation equation. By including this term and by adding terms to account for compressibility effects, a new k-epsilon model is developed for shear flows. The results show that the new model performs better than the existing k-epsilon models.

Abid, Ridha↗