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At least 523 records · Page 29

Time-resolved far-field analysis of a high power single emitter laser diode

A system was developed which is capable of measuring the time-resolved far-field radiation patterns from a high-power semiconductor laser under intensity modulated conditions. Angular steering of the fundamental spatial mode was observed, with pointing variations as large as 0.5 deg, or 7.5 percent of the beamwidth, during the time of the optical pulse. The variations in pointing angle were directly related to gradients in the transverse index profile of the laser, which may oscillate based on lateral spatial hole burning of the gain and carrier density.

Cornwell, Donald M., Jr.↗

Screech tones from free and ducted supersonic jets

It is well known that screech tones from supersonic jets are generated by a feedback loop. The loop consists of three main components. They are the downstream propagating instability wave, the shock cell structure in the jet plume, and the feedback acoustic waves immediately outside the jet. Evidence will be presented to show that the screech frequency is largely controlled by the characteristics of the feedback acoustic waves. The feedback loop is driven by the instability wave of the jet. Thus the tone intensity and its occurrence are dictated by the characteristics of the instability wave. In this paper the dependence of the instability wave spectrum on the azimuthal mode number (axisymmetric or helical/flapping mode, etc.), the jet-to-ambient gas temperature ratio, and the jet Mach number are studied. The results of this study provide an explanation for the observed screech tone mode switch phenomenon (changing from axisymmetric to helical mode as Mach number increases) and the often-cited experimental observation that tone intensity reduces with increase in jet temperature. For ducted supersonic jets screech tones can also be generated by feedback loops formed by the coupling of normal duct modes to instability waves of the jet. The screech frequencies are dictated by the frequencies of the duct modes. Super resonance, resonance involving very large pressure oscillations, can occur when the feedback loop is powered by the most amplified instability wave. It is proposed that the observed large amplitude pressure fluctuations and tone in the test cells of Arnold Engineering Development Center were generated by super resonance. Estimated super-resonance frequency for a Mach 1.3 axisymmetric jet tested in the facility agrees well with measurement.

Tam, C. K. W.↗

Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

Susskind, Joel↗

Investigation of the CCN Activity, BC and UVBC Mass Concentrations of Biomass Burning Aerosols during the 2013 BASELInE Campaign

Biomass-burning (BB) aerosols, acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), can influence cloud microphysical and radiative properties. In this study, we present CCN measured near the BB source regions over northern Southeast Asia (Doi Ang Khang, Thailand) and at downwind receptor areas (Lulin Atmospheric Background Station, Taiwan), focusing exclusively on 13-20 March 2013 as part of 2013 spring campaign of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7-SEAS) intensive observation. One of the campaigns objectives is to characterize BB aerosols serving as CCN in SouthEast Asia (SEA). CCN concentrations were measured by a CCN counter at 5 supersaturation (SS) levels: 0.15%, 0.30%, 0.45%, 0.60%, and 0.75%. In addition, PM2.5 and black carbon mass concentrations were analyzed by using a tapered element oscillating microbalance and an aethalometer. It was found the number-size distributions and the characteristics of hygroscopicity (e.g., activation ratio and k) of BB aerosols in SEA have a strong diurnal pattern, and different behaviors of patterns were characterized under two distinct weather systems. The overall average value was low (0.05-0.1) but comparable with previous CCN studies in other BB source regions. Furthermore, a large fraction of UV-absorbing organic material (UVBC) and high Delta-C among BB aerosols were also observed, which suggest the existence of substantial particulate organic matter in fresh BB aerosols. These data provide the most extensive characterization of BB aerosols in SEA until now.

biomass burning aerosol↗

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

JJA↗

Modulation of North Atlantic Polar Low Activity and Associated Flow Patterns by Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense maritime mesoscale cyclones that can pose hazards to coastal communities and marine operation in the Arctic. This study examines the impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on PL activity in the subarctic North Atlantic. The 20 days following SSWs are characterized by tropospheric circulation anomalies resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. PL activity decreases significantly over the Labrador Sea, which can be attributed to the infrequent occurrence of low static stability and strong environmental baroclinicity, as well as reduced surface turbulent heat fluxes. These results suggest that a skillful prediction of SSWs can improve the extended-range forecast of PL activity over the Labrador Sea. For the Nordic seas, the results imply that the spatial structure of an SSW event is important for the PL modulation through different tropospheric circulation patterns. Situations with increased PL frequency in the Nordic seas are characterized by SSWs centered close to northern Greenland occurring over a smaller area, and a tropospheric response featuring enhanced cold-air outbreaks over the Norwegian Sea. Conversely, PL activity is suppressed over the Nordic seas when the SSW favors the formation of a tropospheric anticyclone above Greenland and Scandinavia. Significance Statement This study investigates the relationships between polar lows (PLs) and sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) over the subarctic North Atlantic. A better understanding of the effect of SSWs on PL development has the potential to improve extended-range forecasts of PLs. It is shown that SSWs are responsible for the significantly suppressed regional PL activity over the Labrador Sea, suggesting that SSWs can serve as a predictor for the extended-range forecast of PLs over this region. Following SSW events, the thermodynamic state of atmosphere becomes more stable over the Labrador Sea and hinders the convective development of PLs. For the northern Nordic seas, the impacts of SSWs on PL activity are sensitive to the spatial structure of stratospheric warming.

Chang, Chuan-Chieh↗

Collaborative Research: Understanding air‐sea feedbacks to the MJO through process evaluation of observations and E3SM experiments (Final Technical Report)

This project explored the role of tropical oceans in regulating cloud populations within the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)–a large-scale tropical weather disturbance that influences extreme weather events across the globe by affecting the position of the jet stream and patterns of moisture transport. Our project sought to 1) document ocean feedback strength to the MJO in climate models, 2) understand how air-sea interactions affect the intensity, organization, and propagation of MJO convection, 3) utilize existing observations to identify sources of model bias for tropical air-sea interactions, and 4) better understand the effects of slow and fast ocean variability on MJO cloudiness. We found that transfers of heat and moisture across the air-sea interface (i.e., surface fluxes) in most climate models are over-supportive in maintaining MJO convection and under-supportive in propagating MJO convection. This can lead to misrepresentations in the frequency of extreme weather events across the globe through erroneous MJO feedbacks to jet stream position and moisture transport. Furthermore, using observations collected by ocean moorings across the tropical oceans, we showed that most models greatly overestimate surface evaporation in the subtropics, and that this bias is likely one contributor to a pervasive bias among climate models in their ability to simulate the mean state of rainfall over the tropical oceans (i.e., the “double ITCZ bias”). Replacing the default surface flux algorithm in two climate models with a state-of-the-art surface flux algorithm modestly reduced the double ITCZ bias in those models. Our work produced two model diagnostics packages that are now publicly available through DOE and NOAA model diagnostics archives. The first, the Analysis of Scales of Precipitation (ASoP) diagnoses scales of precipitation variability across space and time, with temporal resolution as fine as the model integration timestep. The second, the air-sea flux diagnostic diagnoses model surface fluxes and allows direct comparison of model fluxes to observations without having to recompute fluxes using model output and a state-of-the-art flux algorithm. These diagnostics, which were developed using climate models, can be readily applied to regional and global forecast model output to improve forecasts for the benefit of society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Study of the December 1992 Westerly Wind Burst Event during TOGA COARE

Using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the period from 19 to 30 December 1992 over the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) has been simulated and compared with observation. This event is characterized by the presence of super cloud clusters and the occurrence of a major WWB that extended over the western and central Pacific Ocean. Although several of the observed convective systems were not precisely simulated by MM5, the model did capture many other observed characteristics, such as the explosive development of convection, the cyclonic circulation and the WWB. The WWB resulted from the coalescence of three types of tropical disturbances. The first type was a low-level westerly jet (LWJ) that developed at the equator and may be associated with the eastward propagation of an ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillation). The second type featured an easterly wave-like disturbance that originated in the south central Pacific Ocean and propagated westward. Finally, the third type involved a cross-equatorial flow that deflected Northern Hemispheric easterlies into the Southern Hemisphere and may be caused by inertial instability. These disturbances worked in concert, resulting in intense convection over the TOGA COARE region. Once intense convection developed, a large-scale circulation was produced over the western Pacific warm pool, propagated eastward, and initiated a WWB.

Chen, Chaing↗

Non-monotonic size-dependent exciton radiative lifetime in CsPbBr3 nanocrystals

Lead halide perovskite nanocrystals have attracted intense interest due to their desirable optical properties, diverse structural features, and size-tunable excitonic structure. Here we show that, under ambient conditions, a non-monotonic trend in radiative lifetime emerges from the interplay of size, lattice symmetry and excitonic structure. Small nanocrystals exhibit long radiative lifetimes due to weakly emissive excitons, but the oscillator strength increases and shortens the lifetime for nanocrystals approaching intermediate confinement. For larger nanocrystals with higher exciton density of states (DOS), the radiative lifetime is lengthened due to depopulation of the bright exciton manifold into thermally accessible dim states. A size-dependent structural symmetry lowering transition from cubic to orthorhombic is observed by XRD and MD simulations, and the non-monotonic radiative lifetime trend emerges only in lower symmetry structures with an increased dim exciton DOS. These findings shed light on the impact of nanocrystal size and structure on radiative lifetime and pave the way for tailored optical materials in various optical applications.

optical materials↗

A Summary of Preliminary Investigations into the Characteristics of Combustion Screech in Ducted Burners

Increasing demands for higher afterburner performance have required operation at progressively higher fuel-air ratios, which has increased the occurrence and intensity of screeching combustion. The onset of screech may be followed by rapid destruction of the combustor shell and other combustor parts. Because of its destructive characteristics, considerable effort has been expended to understand and eliminate screech. NACA work on the screeching combustion problem prior to 1954 is summarized herein. These studies showed that resonant acoustic oscillations are a primary component of the screech mechanism in the burners thus far investigated

Source record↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2007

Topics covered include; Rapid Fabrication of Carbide Matrix/Carbon Fiber Composites; Coating Thermoelectric Devices To Suppress Sublimation; Ultrahigh-Temperature Ceramics; Improved C/SiC Ceramic Composites Made Using PIP; Coating Carbon Fibers With Platinum; Two-Band, Low-Loss Microwave Window; MCM Polarimetric Radiometers for Planar Arrays; Aperture-Coupled Thin-Membrane L-Band Antenna; WGM-Based Photonic Local Oscillators and Modulators; Focal-Plane Arrays of Quantum-Dot Infrared Photodetectors; Laser Range and Bearing Finder With No Moving Parts; Microrectenna: A Terahertz Antenna and Rectifier on a Chip; Miniature L-Band Radar Transceiver; Robotic Vision-Based Localization in an Urban Environment; Programs for Testing an SSME-Monitoring System; Cathodoluminescent Source of Intense White Light; Displaying and Analyzing Antenna Radiation Patterns; Payload Operations Support Team Tools; Space-Shuttle Emulator Software; Soft Real-Time PID Control on a VME Computer; Analyzing Radio-Frequency Coverage for the ISS; Nanorod-Based Fast-Response Pressure-Sensitive Paints; Capacitors Would Help Protect Against Hypervelocity Impacts; Diaphragm Pump With Resonant Piezoelectric Drive; Improved Quick-Release Pin Mechanism; Designing Rolling-Element Bearings; Reverse-Tangent Injection in a Centrifugal Compressor; Inertial Measurements for Aero-assisted Navigation (IMAN); Analysis of Complex Valve and Feed Systems; Improved Path Planning Onboard the Mars Exploration Rovers; Robust, Flexible Motion Control for the Mars Explorer Rovers; Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation; Fluorine-Based DRIE of Fused Silica; Mechanical Alloying for Making Thermoelectric Compounds; Process for High-Rate Fabrication of Alumina Nanotemplates; Electroform/Plasma-Spray Laminates for X-Ray Optics; An Automated Flying-Insect Detection System; Calligraphic Poling of Ferroelectric Material; Blackbody Cavity for Calibrations at 200 to 273 K; KML Super Overlay to WMS Translator; High-Performance Tiled WMS and KML Web Server; Modeling of Radiative Transfer in Protostellar Disks; Composite Pulse Tube; Photometric Calibration of Consumer Video Cameras; Criterion for Identifying Vortices in High- Pressure Flows; Amplified Thermionic Cooling Using Arrays of Nanowires; Delamination-Indicating Thermal Barrier Coatings; Preventing Raman Lasing in High-Q WGM Resonators; Procedures for Tuning a Multiresonator Photonic Filter; Robust Mapping of Incoherent Fiber-Optic Bundles; Extended-Range Ultrarefractive 1D Photonic Crystal Prisms; Rapid Analysis of Mass Distribution of Radiation Shielding; Modeling Magnetic Properties in EZTB; Deep Space Network Antenna Logic Controller; Modeling Carbon and Hydrocarbon Molecular Structures in EZTB; BigView Image Viewing on Tiled Displays; and Imaging Sensor Flight and Test Equipment Software.

Source record↗

Coherent Detection of High-Rate Optical PPM Signals

A method of coherent detection of high-rate pulse-position modulation (PPM) on a received laser beam has been conceived as a means of reducing the deleterious effects of noise and atmospheric turbulence in free-space optical communication using focal-plane detector array technologies. In comparison with a receiver based on direct detection of the intensity modulation of a PPM signal, a receiver based on the present method of coherent detection performs well at much higher background levels. In principle, the coherent-detection receiver can exhibit quantum-limited performance despite atmospheric turbulence. The key components of such a receiver include standard receiver optics, a laser that serves as a local oscillator, a focal-plane array of photodetectors, and a signal-processing and data-acquisition assembly needed to sample the focal-plane fields and reconstruct the pulsed signal prior to detection. The received PPM-modulated laser beam and the local-oscillator beam are focused onto the photodetector array, where they are mixed in the detection process. The two lasers are of the same or nearly the same frequency. If the two lasers are of different frequencies, then the coherent detection process is characterized as heterodyne and, using traditional heterodyne-detection terminology, the difference between the two laser frequencies is denoted the intermediate frequency (IF). If the two laser beams are of the same frequency and remain aligned in phase, then the coherent detection process is characterized as homodyne (essentially, heterodyne detection at zero IF). As a result of the inherent squaring operation of each photodetector, the output current includes an IF component that contains the signal modulation. The amplitude of the IF component is proportional to the product of the local-oscillator signal amplitude and the PPM signal amplitude. Hence, by using a sufficiently strong local-oscillator signal, one can make the PPM-modulated IF signal strong enough to overcome thermal noise in the receiver circuits: this is what makes it possible to achieve near-quantum-limited detection in the presence of strong background. Following quantum-limited coherent detection, the outputs of the individual photodetectors are automatically aligned in phase by use of one or more adaptive array compensation algorithms [e.g., the least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm]. Then the outputs are combined and the resulting signal is processed to extract the high-rate information, as though the PPM signal were received by a single photodetector. In a continuing series of experiments to test this method (see Fig. 1), the local oscillator has a wavelength of 1,064 nm, and another laser is used as a signal transmitter at a slightly different wavelength to establish an IF of about 6 MHz. There are 16 photodetectors in a 4 4 focal-plane array; the detector outputs are digitized at a sampling rate of 25 MHz, and the signals in digital form are combined by use of the LMS algorithm. Convergence of the adaptive combining algorithm in the presence of simulated atmospheric turbulence for optical PPM signals has already been demonstrated in the laboratory; the combined output is shown in Fig. 2(a), and Fig. 2(b) shows the behavior of the phase of the combining weights as a function of time (or samples). We observe that the phase of the weights has a sawtooth shape due to the continuously changing phase in the down-converted output, which is not exactly at zero frequency. Detailed performance analysis of this coherent free-space optical communication system in the presence of simulated atmospheric turbulence is currently under way.

Vilnrotter, Victor↗

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Observation of photo-induced plasmon–phonon coupling in PbTe via ultrafast x-ray scattering

We report the observation of photo-induced plasmon–phonon coupled modes in the group IV–VI semiconductor PbTe using ultrafast x-ray diffuse scattering at the Linac Coherent Light Source. We measure the near-zone-center excited-state dispersion of the heavily screened longitudinal optical (LO) phonon branch as extracted from differential changes in x-ray diffuse scattering intensity following above bandgap photoexcitation. We suggest that upon photoexcitation, the LO phonon-plasmon coupled (LOPC) modes themselves become coupled to longitudinal acoustic modes that drive electron band shifts via acoustic deformation potentials and possibly to low-energy single-particle excitations within the plasma and that these couplings give rise to displacement-correlations that oscillate in time with a period given effectively by the heavily screened LOPC frequency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generation of gamma radiation by a subterawatt ultrashort laser pulse: optimisation of preplasma and pulse duration

We report an experimental and numerical study of the acceleration of electrons in a plasma interacting with a subterawatt laser pulse (intensity of ∼3 × 10{sup 18} W cm{sup −2} at a pulse duration of 50 fs). A preplasma layer on the surface of a molybdenum target is formed by an additional laser pulse with a duration of 8 ns and an intensity of ∼2 × 10{sup 12} W cm{sup −2}. It is shown that an increase in the laser pulse duration to 1700 fs at a constant energy (and a proportional decrease in intensity) leads to an increase in the yield of bremsstrahlung γ-radiation by more than an order of magnitude when the nanosecond pulse is ahead of the femtosecond one by 15 − 25 ns. Interferometry data and results of diagnostics of optical and γ-radiation of a plasma demonstrate that the collisional ionisation of atoms by electrons oscillating in the field of such a laser pulse plays an essential role in the formation of electron density profile. The sensitivity of the described effect to the level of amplified spontaneous emission is determined, despite the nanosecond pulse impact. Numerical simulations show that at a large pulse duration, the acceleration of electrons is stipulated by the beaking of plasma waves excited during stimulated Raman scattering of laser radiation. (paper)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Two dimensional blade-vortex interaction flow visualization study

Blade-vortex interaction occurs when a rotor blade encounters the tip vortex from a previous rotor blade. To obtain details of the close encounter process, the results from a flow visualization study of an airfoil representing a rotor blade in the wake of an oscillating airfoil serving as a vortex generator are described. A distinguishing feature of this study is that the vortex filament is oriented parallel to the blade span, orthogonal to the test section free stream velocity. This orientation simulates the case of two-dimensional blade-vortex interaction, which is known to produce the most impulsive and most intensive BVI noise. Photographic data are examined to deduce qualitative and quantitative details of the close encounter interaction process with emphasis on structural changes in the vortex filament and its trajectory.

Booth, E. R., Jr.↗

Separation of crack extension modes in composite delamination problems

This work concerns fracture mechanics modeling of composite delamination problems. In order to predict delamination resistance, an applied stress intensity factor, K, or energy release rate, G, must be compared to a mode-dependent critical value of K or G from experiment. In the interfacial fracture analysis of most applications and some tests, the mode of crack extension is not uniquely defined. It is instead a function of distance from the crack tip due to the oscillating singularity existing at the tip. In this work, a consistent method is presented of extracting crack extension modes in such cases. In particular, use of the virtual crack closure technique (VCCT) to extract modes of crack extension is studied for cases of a crack along the interface between two in-plane orthotropic materials. Modes of crack extension extracted from oscillatory analyses using VCCT are a function of the virtual crack extension length, delta. Most existing efforts to obtain delta-independent modes of crack extension involve changing the analysis in order to eliminate its oscillatory nature. One such method involves changing one or more properties of the layers to make the oscillatory exponent parameter, epsilon, equal zero. Standardized application of this method would require consistent criteria for identifying which properties can be altered without changing the physical aspects of the problem. Another method involves inserting a thin homogeneous layer (typically referred to as a resin interlayer) along the interface and placing the crack within it. The drawbacks of this method are that it requires increased modeling effort and introduces the thickness of the interlayer as an additional length parameter. The approach presented here does not attempt to alter the interfacial fracture analysis to eliminate its oscillatory behavior. Instead, the argument is made that the oscillatory behavior is non-physical and that if its effects were separated from VCCT quantities, then consistent, delta-independent modes of crack extension could be defined. Knowledge of the near-tip fields in a planar orthotropic material interfacial fracture analysis is used to determine the explicit delta dependence of VCCT parameters. Once this delta dependence is determined, energy release rates are defined with this delta dependence factored out. This modified VCCT method is applied to results from two finite element test cases. It is shown that, as predicted, delta-independent modes of crack extension result. The modified VCCT approach shows potential as a consistent method of extracting crack extension modes. It uses the same information from a finite element analysis (i.e., nodal forces and displacements) as the traditional VCCT method does. The A-independent modes extracted using the modified VCCT approach can also be used as guides to test the convergence of finite element solutions.

Beuth, Jack L.↗

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

Using modern satellite (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM, 1998-2014) and reanalysis (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, 1979-2015) data, we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multiyear declines of precipitation in California appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011 and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief from drought, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation during typical versus drying periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multiyear drying events. Storms delivering up to 50% of the precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall. However, these phenomena can be suppressed and even blocked by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific. The reanalysis and satellite data are proven to be reliable to the extent where they yield information on developing conditions and observed precipitation anomalies.

precipitation↗