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At least 523 records · Page 29

NFD Methodology Report

The NetFlow Dynamics (NFD) model was developed for estimating the availability of a commodity supplied by a national- or regional-scale infrastructure following unexpected disruption of one or more of its components. The large scope of the disruptions of interest produce changes in availability lasting days to weeks. Consequently, the model does not resolve daily variations in system state and does not include the long-term processes that cause infrastructures to evolve as assets are added and removed according to owners ’planning decisions. NFD simulates fluid flow, including petroleum and other incompressible fluids, as well as natural gas and other compressible fluids, through pipeline networks characterized by limits on transmission capacity and storage. It was designed to enable efficient exploration of possible transmission system responses to large-scale disruptions lasting for days or longer. The model formulation reflects constraints on transmission and storage capacity imposed by the physical system assets. Those capacity limits are input parameters and are not derived from more basic system properties such as pipeline diameters and compressor power. A system’s response to a large disruption is controlled by operational decisions as well as damage to physical assets. The NFD model formulation allows users to efficiently consider alternative scenarios about the way remaining capacity might be used so that the analysis result appropriately reflects uncertainties about operator response.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Generation, Reserves and Energy Prices

Wildfire seasons in the Western U.S. become more prolonged and intense in recent years bringing significant variability and uncertainty of solar generation. It greatly challenges the bulk power system and electricity market operation managed by California Independent System Operator (CAISO) as California leads both the wildfire records and the solar power integration. This study presents a screening-level analysis of the impact of wildfires on solar generation, operating reserve and energy prices applying historical real-world wildfire and market operation data. To the best of the authors knowledge, it is a first-of-its-kind study and will lay the foundation for market impact quantification and wildfire mitigation strategies design based on projected wildfire activities in future years.

electricity price↗

Key insights from US Department of Energy Better Plants workforce development bootcamps (2022–2025)

This study examines the effectiveness of the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants Program Bootcamps, which are designed to enhance participants’ technical skills in improving energy efficiency and optimizing operations in manufacturing facilities. Through the analysis of survey data collected from 529 participants across 9 bootcamps, the research investigates the motivations, benefits, and demographic trends of attendees. The findings reveal that skill acquisition and improvement are primary drivers for participation, with key benefits including hands-on training on diagnostic equipment and software tools, networking opportunities, and access to technical resources. The analysis shows strong participation from sectors characterized by high energy consumption and employment, such as chemical and transportation equipment manufacturing. Over 50% of participants have job titles that include “EHS” or “Energy” showing their key roles in leading energy efficiency and energy management efforts in manufacturing. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the distribution of participants across managerial, engineering, and technical roles, revealing a higher representation of managers and engineers. This observation suggests a need for targeted outreach to engage technicians, equipment operators, maintenance staff, and floor workers to ensure comprehensive workforce development. The post-bootcamp survey showed that the participants highly valued the opportunities for peer learning and idea exchange, and the benefits they gained from them. This research contributes to the advancement of manufacturing education by demonstrating the efficacy of specialized training in addressing critical industry challenges and fostering a more competent and empowered workforce.

Energy efficiency↗

The DPG Method for the Convection-Reaction Problem Revisited

We study both conforming and non-conforming versions of the practical DPG method for the convection-reaction problem. We determine that the most common approach for DPG stability analysis (construction of a local Fortin operator) is infeasible for the convection-reaction problem. We then develop a line of argument based on the direct construction of a global Fortin operator; we find that employing a polynomial enrichment for the test space does not suffice for this purpose, motivating the introduction of a (two-element) subgrid mesh. The argument combines mathematical analysis with numerical experiments

42 ENGINEERING↗

HEPTAPOD: Orchestrating High Energy Physics Workflows Towards Autonomous Agency

Many workflows in high-energy-physics (HEP) stand to benefit from recent advances in transformer-based large language models (LLMs). While early applications of LLMs focused on text generation and code completion, modern LLMs now support orchestrated agency: the coordinated execution of complex, multi-step tasks through tool use, structured context, and iterative reasoning. We introduce the HEP Toolkit for Agentic Planning, Orchestration, and Deployment (HEPTAPOD), an orchestration framework designed to bring this emerging paradigm to HEP pipelines. The framework enables LLMs to interface with domain-specific tools, construct and manage simulation workflows, and assist in common utility and data analysis tasks through schema-validated operations and run-card-driven configuration. To demonstrate these capabilities, we consider a representative Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) Monte Carlo validation pipeline that spans model generation, event simulation, and downstream analysis within a unified, reproducible workflow. HEPTAPOD provides a structured and auditable layer between human researchers, LLMs, and computational infrastructure, establishing a foundation for transparent, human-in-the-loop systems.

Menzo, Tony [Alabama U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002↗

Theory of Trotter Error with Commutator Scaling

The Lie-Trotter formula, together with its higher-order generalizations, provides a simple approach to decomposing the exponential of a sum of operators. Despite significant effort, the error scaling of such product formulas remains poorly understood. We develop a theory of Trotter error that overcomes the limitations of truncating the Baker-Campbell-Hausdorff expansion. Our analysis directly exploits the commutativity of operator summands, producing tighter error bounds for both real- and imaginary-time evolutions. Whereas previous work achieves similar goals for systems with geometric locality or Lie-algebraic structure, our approach holds in general. We give a host of improved algorithms for digital quantum simulation and quantum Monte Carlo methods, nearly matching or even outperforming the best previous results. Our applications include: (i) a simulation of second-quantized plane-wave electronic structure, nearly matching the interaction-picture algorithm of Low and Wiebe; (ii) a simulation of $k$-local Hamiltonians almost with induced one-norm scaling, faster than the qubitization algorithm of Low and Chuang; (iii) a simulation of rapidly decaying power-law interactions, outperforming the Lieb-Robinson-based approach of Tran et al.; (iv) a hybrid simulation of clustered Hamiltonians, dramatically improving the result of Peng, Harrow, Ozols, and Wu; and (v) quantum Monte Carlo simulations of the transverse field Ising model and quantum ferromagnets, tightening previous analyses of Bravyi and Gosset. We obtain further speedups using the fact that product formulas can preserve the locality of the simulated system. Specifically, we show that local observables can be simulated with complexity independent of the system size for power-law interacting systems, which implies a Lieb-Robinson bound nearly matching a recent result of Tran et al. Our analysis reproduces known tight bounds for first- and second-order formulas. We further investigate the tightness of our bounds for higher-order formulas. For quantum simulation of a one-dimensional Heisenberg model with an even-odd ordering of terms, our result overestimates the complexity by only a factor of $5$. Our bound is also close to tight for power-law interactions and other orderings of terms. This suggests that our theory can accurately characterize Trotter error in terms of both the asymptotic scaling and the constant prefactor.

quantum computing, numerical analysis↗

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Quantitative Failure Analysis on Capacity Fade in Rechargeable Lithium Metal Cells

Rechargeable lithium battery (RLB) technology is transforming portable devices, vehicle electrification, and grid modernization. To make RLB durable, reliable and safe, conducting failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to identify failure mechanism under the operating conditions is very desirable. However, this ability is often overlooked or even lacking. The failure analysis (FA) is often conducted by laboratory testing and postmortem analysis, and the knowledge typically empirical. Here we present a quantitative approach for FMEA that can reveal how failure modes and effects reduce the capacity of a RLB. This approach is based on the state of the battery for FMEA, contrary to the conventional approach based on operating or testing conditions. The key aspect of this FMEA method is to convert the experimental results to a state-of-charge (SOC)-based analytic methodology. Such a conversion can separate the thermodynamic and kinetic attributes of capacity fade based on compositional correspondence in the electrode, so the loss and the decreased utilization of the active materials can be determined respectively.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Rossi-alpha Analysis of CURIE Experiment [Slides]

Critical assembly measurement and operations are crucial to the development of benchmark data. Knowledge of the prompt neutron lifetime informs on the state of the system’s neutron spectrum. Rossi-alpha analysis can give us time-dependent information on the system. Teflon was selected, via genetic algorithm, as a moderator to target the URR in uranium for CURIE. Rossi-alpha measurements of the assembly's approach to critical using He-3 detectors estimated the prompt neutron decay constant (α) at delayed critical. α values of several subcritical measurements were then used to predict the α value at delayed critical.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Aquifer Hydraulic Testing and Characterization Plan for the Ringold Formation Unit A in the Hanford 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Unit and Vicinity

This document presents a plan for testing and characterizing the hydraulic properties of the Ringold Formation, member of Wooded Island – unit A (Rwia) in the 200-ZP groundwater operable unit. The testing approach includes multiple field methods and associated analyses designed to investigate and understand aquifer hydraulic properties over a range of scales. Testing was designed to achieve specific testing objectives identified previously in the 200 ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Unit Ringold Formation Unit A Characterization Sampling and Analysis Plan (Ringold A SAP). The test plan provides necessary technical and operational detail for writing subsequent field test instruction documents specific to each testing location. Hydraulic characterization activities will proceed in a phased manner focusing on areas identified to have knowledge gaps and also critical for remedy modifications and/or selection. These activities are designed to minimize impact to pump-and-treat (P&T) operations and to use existing P&T injection and extraction wells as stress wells, and include use of the new Rwia monitoring wells installed for Ringold A SAP activities. ZP-1 hydraulic testing will include slug testing in new Rwia wells, shutdown-recovery tests in multiple Rwia and composite Ringold Formation member of Wooded Island – unit E (Rwie)-Rwia aquifer test locations, installation of new Automated Water Level Network stations in Rwia monitoring wells, characterization of P&T and barometric responses, identifying the vertical distribution of hydraulic conductivity in the Rwia and Rwie units using electromagnetic borehole flowmeter tests, and single-well tracer testing in select Rwia monitoring wells. Slug testing to be conducted during drilling is described under the Ringold A SAP. The remaining testing activities are to be conducted after well drilling and completion and are described in this test plan.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bioaerosol Profiling with Open Path Sensors (BIOPOP) Field Campaign Report

BIOPOP, Bioaerosol Profiling with Open Path Sensors, was designed to characterize coarse and super-coarse biological aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer using the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s tethered balloon system (TBS). The campaign period was 2025-05-28 through 2025-08-31 and involved the third ARM Mobile Facility (AMF3) operations at Bankhead National Forest (BNF) in Alabama. The analysis summarized here focuses on the June and August 2025 BNF intensive operating periods (IOPs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System Study: Residual Heat Removal 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the residual heat removal (RHR) system in two modes of operation (low-pressure injection in response to a large loss-of-coolant accident and in response to post-trip shutdown cooling) at 93 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS), formerly the INPO Consolidated Events Database. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the RHR results.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

System Study: Emergency Power System 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 93 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system start-only unreliability, but a highly statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Techno-Economic and life cycle assessment of standalone Single-Stream material recovery facilities in the United states

Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) are crucial players in achieving a circular economy. MRFs receive complex waste streams and separate valuable recyclables from these mixtures. This study conducts techno-economic analysis (TEA) to estimate the net present value (NPV) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate different environmental impacts of a commercial scale standalone, single-stream MRF to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impacts of recovering valuable recyclables from an MRF processing 120,000 tonnes per year (t/y). The TEA employs a discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) analysis over a 20-year facility lifetime, along with a sensitivity analysis on the impact of different operating and economic parameters. Results show that the total fixed cost of building the MRF facility is $\$ $23 MM, and the operating cost is $\$ $45.48/tonne. Further the NPV of the MRF can vary from $\$ $3.57 MM to $\$ $60 MM, while 100-year global warming potential can range from 5.98 to 8.53 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per tonne of MSW. We have also found that MSW composition (arising from regional effects) significantly impacts costs, 100-year global warming potential, and other impact categories such as acidification potential, eutrophication potential, ecotoxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, carcinogenic effects, and non-carcinogenic effects. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis indicate that waste composition and market prices significantly impact the profitability of the MRF, and the waste composition mostly impacts global warming potential. Our analysis also indicates that facility capacity, fixed capital cost, and waste tipping fees are vital parameters that affect the economic viability of MRF operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of Tail-dominated Instability in the Fermilab Recycler Ring

In our recent operational run, a single bunch, tail-dominated instability was observed in the Fermilab Recycler ring. This instability exclusively occurs in the vertical plane when the chromaticity is close to zero. In this study, we conduct a detailed analysis of this instability under different operational parameters. We investigate the impact of space charge on the head-tail motion and propose potential interpretations of the underlying mechanism of the instability. Moreover, we explore methods to mitigate this instability in the future.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

System Study: Emergency Power System 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) at 93 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system start-only unreliability, but a statistically significant decreasing trend was identified in the industry-wide estimates of EPS system 24-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗