Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “observations model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Ground-based observations and ad hoc models

Ground based observations of B stars in the visible, the infrared, and the radio region are described along with the ad hoc models proposed to interpret them. It is shown that these observations refer essentially to the photosphere and to the regions of the outer atmosphere where the gas is cool and at low velocity. The characteristics of the variability of the continuous and line spectrum are examined in general and in the cases of individual stars. Finally, linear polarization in the B stars is discussed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

Analytic MHD Theory for Earth's Bow Shock at Low Mach Numbers

A previous MHD theory for the density jump at the Earth's bow shock, which assumed the Alfven M(A) and sonic M(s) Mach numbers are both much greater than 1, is reanalyzed and generalized. It is shown that the MHD jump equation can be analytically solved much more directly using perturbation theory, with the ordering determined by M(A) and M(s), and that the first-order perturbation solution is identical to the solution found in the earlier theory. The second-order perturbation solution is calculated, whereas the earlier approach cannot be used to obtain it. The second-order terms generally are important over most of the range of M(A) and M(s) in the solar wind when the angle theta between the normal to the bow shock and magnetic field is not close to 0 deg or 180 deg (the solutions are symmetric about 90 deg). This new perturbation solution is generally accurate under most solar wind conditions at 1 AU, with the exception of low Mach numbers when theta is close to 90 deg. In this exceptional case the new solution does not improve on the first-order solutions obtained earlier, and the predicted density ratio can vary by 10-20% from the exact numerical MHD solutions. For theta approx. = 90 deg another perturbation solution is derived that predicts the density ratio much more accurately. This second solution is typically accurate for quasi-perpendicular conditions. Taken together, these two analytical solutions are generally accurate for the Earth's bow shock, except in the rare circumstance that M(A) is less than or = 2. MHD and gasdynamic simulations have produced empirical models in which the shock's standoff distance a(s) is linearly related to the density jump ratio X at the subsolar point. Using an empirical relationship between a(s) and X obtained from MHD simulations, a(s) values predicted using the MHD solutions for X are compared with the predictions of phenomenological models commonly used for modeling observational data, and with the predictions of a modified phenomenological model proposed recently. The similarities and differences between these results are illustrated using plots of X and a(s) predicted for the Earth's bow shock. The plots show that the new analytic solutions agree very well with the exact numerical MHD solutions and that these MHD solutions should replace the corresponding phenomenological relations in comparisons with data. Furthermore, significant differences exist between the standoff distances predicted at low M(A) using the MHD models versus those predicted by the new modified phenomenological model. These differences should be amenable to observational testing.

Grabbe, Crockett L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. The combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

Robert S. Schrom↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radar-Based Bayesian Estimation of Ice Crystal Growth Parameters within a Microphysical Model

The potential for polarimetric Doppler radar measurements to improve predictions of ice microphysical processes within an idealized model–observational framework is examined. In an effort to more rigorously constrain ice growth processes (e.g., vapor deposition) with observations of natural clouds, a novel framework is developed to compare simulated and observed radar measurements, coupling a bulk adaptive-habit model of vapor growth to a polarimetric radar forward model. Bayesian inference on key microphysical model parameters is then used, via a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, to estimate the probability distribution of the model parameters. The statistical formalism of this method allows for robust estimates of the optimal parameter values, along with (non-Gaussian) estimates of their uncertainty. To demonstrate this framework, observations from Department of Energy radars in the Arctic during a case of pristine ice precipitation are used to constrain vapor deposition parameters in the adaptive habit model. The resulting parameter probability distributions provide physically plausible changes in ice particle density and aspect ratio during growth. A lack of direct constraint on the number concentration produces a range of possible mean particle sizes, with the mean size inversely correlated to number concentration. Consistency is found between the estimated inherent growth ratio and independent laboratory measurements, increasing confidence in the parameter PDFs and demonstrating the effectiveness of the radar measurements in constraining the parameters. Furthermore, the combined Doppler and polarimetric observations produce the highest-confidence estimates of the parameter PDFs, with the Doppler measurements providing a stronger constraint for this case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Decadal Aerosol Variations from 1980 to 2009: A Perspective from Observations and a Global Model

Aerosol variations and trends over different land and ocean regions during 1980-2009 are analyzed with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and observations from multiple satellite sensors and ground-based networks. Excluding time periods with large volcanic influences, the tendency of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface concentration over polluted land regions is consistent with the anthropogenic emission changes.The largest reduction occurs over Europe, and regions in North America and Russia also exhibit reductions. On the other hand, East Asia and South Asia show AOD increases, although relatively large amount of natural aerosols in Asia makes the total changes less directly connected to the pollutant emission trends. Over major dust source regions, model analysis indicates that the dust emissions over the Sahara and Sahel respond mainly to the near-surface wind speed, but over Central Asia they are largely influenced by ground wetness. The decreasing dust trend in the tropical North Atlantic is most closely associated with the decrease of Sahel dust emission and increase of precipitation over the tropical North Atlantic, likely driven by the sea surface temperature increase. Despite significant regional trends, the model-calculated global annual average AOD shows little changes over land and ocean in the past three decades, because opposite trends in different regions cancel each other in the global average. This highlights the need for regional-scale aerosol assessment, as the global average value conceals regional changes, and thus is not sufficient for assessing changes in aerosol loading.

atmopheric aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2014

A-Train Aerosol Observations Preliminary Comparisons with AeroCom Models and Pathways to Observationally Based All-Sky Estimates

We have developed a technique for combining CALIOP aerosol backscatter, MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), and OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) retrievals for the purpose of estimating full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately for calculating the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative forcing. We present results using one year of data collected in 2007 and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the recently released MODIS Collection 6 data for aerosol optical depths derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the multi-sensor estimates towards higher latitudes. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution of our multi-sensor aerosol retrievals and calculations of seasonal clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing based on the aerosol retrievals to values derived from four models that participated in the latest AeroCom model intercomparison initiative. We find significant inter-model differences, in particular for the aerosol single scattering albedo, which can be evaluated using the multi-sensor A-Train retrievals. We discuss the major challenges that exist in extending our clear-sky results to all-sky conditions. On the basis of comparisons to suborbital measurements, we present some of the limitations of the MODIS and CALIOP retrievals in the presence of adjacent or underlying clouds. Strategies for meeting these challenges are discussed.

Aerosol↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS2001

Multiple Radially Aligned Plasmaspheric Structures as Evidence of Standing Hydromagnetic Waves: IMAGE EUV Observations and Forward Modeling

The IMAGE EUV imager has observed several instances where the outer plasmasphere is populated by multiple radially aligned structures resembling "plasmaspheric fingers". The observation of these plasmaspheric structures suggests the presence of an azimuthal standing hydromagnetic wave mode. Eiganmodes appear to explain finger-like. nearly radial density structures that sometimes divide into two structures with increasing radial distance. The implication is of boundaries at fixed local times, which results in a widening "box" in which standing waves are developed. The structures also suggest a single driving frequency for the source of the waves. We present EUV observations of plasmaspheric fingers observed on August 2000 as well as plasmaspheric modeling of azimuthal wave modes in an effort to quantify the origin of these observed structures

Gallagher, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Thermal tides in the atmosphere of Venus - Comparison of model results with observations

A linearized primitive equation model adapted to Venusian conditions was used to study thermal tidal anomalies in the Venus atmosphere exposed by Venus Orbiter IR sensors. The model received as input the IR data, mean zonal wind and solar input as functions of height and latitude, and the global mean static stability and Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction in relation to altitude. Basic state and forcing functions were defined for Venus, and the model generated brightness temperatures which could be compared with the IR data. The good correlations obtained suggest that the model accurately accounts for the low variation of phase with altitude and stronger semidiurnal oscillation features than diurnal oscillations. The model is concluded as a useful tool for assessing the role of thermal tides in maintaining Venus super rotation.

Pechmann, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The Geminga X-ray counterpart and a blue optical identification

Based on optical photometry, the identification of the X-ray source 1E 0630+178 with a blue object inside the Einstein error circle is reported. The question of whether the X-rays could be thermal emission from the surface of a neutron star is addressed. The new optical data confirm that relative fluxes in the optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray bands closely match those of the Vela pulsar. The Vela pulsar is adopted as an 'observational model' for Geminga, whereby only the lack of radio emission from Geminga remains to be accounted for. Previous observational results and theoretical models for Geminga are reviewed in light of the new findings.

Halpern, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Understanding Heating in Active Region Cores through Machine Learning. I. Numerical Modeling and Predicted Observables

To adequately constrain the frequency of energy deposition in active region cores in the solar corona, systematic comparisons between detailed models and observational data are needed. In this paper, we describe a pipeline for forward modeling active region emission using magnetic field extrapolations and field-aligned hydrodynamic models. We use this pipeline to predict time-dependent emission from active region NOAA 1158 for low-, intermediate-, and high-frequency nanoflares. In each pixel of our predicted multi-wavelength, time-dependent images, we compute two commonly used diagnostics: the emission measure slope and the time lag. We find that signatures of the heating frequency persist in both of these diagnostics. In particular, our results show that the distribution of emission measure slopes narrows and the mean decreases with decreasing heating frequency and that the range of emission measure slopes is consistent with past observational and modeling work. Furthermore, we find that the time lag becomes increasingly spatially coherent with decreasing heating frequency while the distribution of time lags across the whole active region becomes more broad with increasing heating frequency. In a follow-up paper, we train a random forest classifier on these predicted diagnostics and use this model to classify real observations of NOAA 1158 in terms of the underlying heating frequency.

UV radiation↗
NASA NTRS1984

Density distribution in looplike coronal transients - A comparison of observations and a theoretical model

Skylab coronagraph observations of intensity changes in the five outer coronal 'loop-like' transients indicate trends toward the greatest concentration of material at the flanks of the bright loops characterizing such transients, together with the presence of a large depleted density region within the loops and the development of bright legs which contain most of the material in the transient and display minimal lateral motion as the top of the bright loop moves radially outward through the corona. Theoretical models for these phenomena predict a maximum enhancement at the top of the loop, rather than at the flanks, and legs that move laterally with a significant fraction of the propagation speed of the loop top, in contrast with observation. Agreement cannot be achieved without the use of a geometry that conflicts with that used for the model calculations.

Sime, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Closed coronal structures. III - Comparison of static models with X-ray, EUV, and radio observations

Numerical models of static coronal loops in energy balance are compared with high spatial resolution observations of extreme ultraviolet lines, broad-band X-ray emission, and interferometric observations at 2.8 cm of a solar active region. Difficulties of using scaling laws to test static models of coronal loops are reviewed. The theoretical model used for the comparison is summarized; the detailed X-ray, EUV, and microwave observations of the selected active region are presented; and the comparison of the model with the observations is performed. It is shown that simple static models with conductive flux vanishing at the loop base reproduce satisfactorily the observed properties in the upper portion of loop structures from compact, high-pressure loops in the core of the region to more extended, fainter loops and to large-scale loops interconnecting different active regions. Effects of changing loop parameters are investigated, and it is argued, that in contrast to the present approach, scaling laws cannot be used to discriminate between different static energy balance models. Some discrepancy is found between model predictions and observations for the lower sections of loop structures. Possible causes of the discrepancy are discussed.

Pallavicini, R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Testing the Empirical Shock Arrival Model Using Quadrature Observations

The empirical shock arrival (ESA) model was developed based on quadrature data from Helios (in situ) and P-78 (remote sensing) to predict the Sun-Earth travel time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The ESA model requires earthward CME speed as input, which is not directly measurable from coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) were in quadrature during 20102012, so the speeds of Earth-directed CMEs were observed with minimal projection effects. We identified a set of 20 full halo CMEs in the field of view of SOHO that were also observed in quadrature by STEREO. We used the earthward speed from STEREO measurements as input to the ESA model and compared the resulting travel times with the observed ones from L1 monitors. We find that the model predicts the CME travel time within about 7.3 h, which is similar to the predictions by the ENLIL model. We also find that CME-CME and CME-coronal hole interaction can lead to large deviations from model predictions.

CMEs↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Race To Understand A Changing Planet

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

Sellers, Piers J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Estimating Model Error Using Observation Residuals

This presentation discusses an approach to estimate model error using observation residuals. Based on the sequential fixed-lag smoother; we introduce a diagnostic procedure to allow estimating model error over a dense observing system. Optimality considerations are examined in light of the sequential results. The procedure is re-interpreted in the language of variational assimilation, such as 4d-Var. Illustrations of the approach are given by studying both identical-twin and fraternal-twin experimental settings for a system governed by Lorenz-type dynamics. Preliminary results by looking at observation residual statistics for the ECMWF data assimilation system are also shown. The presentation will be part of a series of discussions on issues related to four-dimensional data assimilation under weak-constraint and methodologies to estimate model error.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS2019

Contribution of ULF Wave Activity to the Global Recovery of the Outer Radiation Belt During the Passage of a High‐Speed Solar Wind Stream Observed in September 2014

Energy coupling between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetosphere can affect the electron population in the outer radiation belt. However, the precise role of different internal and external mechanisms that leads to changes of the relativistic electron population is not entirely known. This paper describes how ultralow frequency (ULF) wave activity during the passage of Alfvenic solar wind streams contributes to the global recovery of the relativistic electron population in the outer radiation belt. To investigate the contribution of the ULF waves, we searched the Van Allen Probes data for a period in which we can clearly distinguish the enhancement of electron fluxes from the background. We found that the global recovery that started on 22 September 2014, which coincides with the corotating interaction region preceding a high‐speed stream and the occurrence of persistent substorm activity, provides an excellent scenario to explore the contribution of ULF waves. To support our analyses, we employed ground‐ and space‐based observational data and global magnetohydrodynamic simulations and calculated the ULF wave radial diffusion coefficients employing an empirical model. Observations show a gradual increase of electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt and a concomitant enhancement of ULF activity that spreads from higher to lower L‐shells. Magnetohydrodynamic simulation results agree with observed ULF wave activity in the magnetotail, which leads to both fast and Alfven modes in the magnetospheric nightside sector. The observations agree with the empirical model and are confirmed by phase space density calculations for this global recovery period.

Silva, L. A. Da↗