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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

CyBERT: Cybersecurity Claim Classification by Fine-Tuning the BERT Language Model

We introduce CyBERT, a cybersecurity feature claims classifier based on bidirectional encoder representations from transformers and a key component in our semi-automated cybersecurity vetting for industrial control systems (ICS). To train CyBERT, we created a corpus of labeled sequences from ICS device documentation collected across a wide range of vendors and devices. This corpus provides the foundation for fine-tuning BERT’s language model, including a prediction-guided relabeling process. We propose an approach to obtain optimal hyperparameters, including the learning rate, the number of dense layers, and their configuration, to increase the accuracy of our classifier. Fine-tuning all hyperparameters of the resulting model led to an increase in classification accuracy from 76% obtained with BertForSequenceClassification’s original architecture to 94.4% obtained with CyBERT. Furthermore, we evaluated CyBERT for the impact of randomness in the initialization, training, and data-sampling phases. CyBERT demonstrated a standard deviation of ±0.6% during validation across 100 random seed values. Finally, we also compared the performance of CyBERT to other well-established language models including GPT2, ULMFiT, and ELMo, as well as neural network models such as CNN, LSTM, and BiLSTM. The results showed that CyBERT outperforms these models on the validation accuracy and the F1 score, validating CyBERT’s robustness and accuracy as a cybersecurity feature claims classifier.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Highly Resolved Spatial-Temporal Vehicle Energy Consumption Estimation Using Machine Learning and Probe Data

Real-time highly resolved spatial-temporal vehicle energy consumption is a key missing dimension in transportation data. Most roadway link-level vehicle energy consumption data are estimated using average annual daily traffic measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System; however, this method does not reflect day-to-day energy consumption fluctuations. As transportation planners and operators are becoming more environmentally attentive, they need accurate real-time link-level vehicle energy consumption data to assess energy and emissions; to incentivize energy-efficient routing; and to estimate energy impact caused by congestion, major events, and severe weather. This paper presents a computational workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicle energy consumption for each link in a road network of interest using vehicle probe speed and count data in conjunction with machine learning methods in real time. The real-time pipeline can deliver energy estimates within a couple seconds on query to its interface. The proposed method was evaluated on the transportation network of the metropolitan area of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The volume estimation results were validated with ground truth traffic volume data collected in the field. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the energy consumption pipeline was applied to real-world data to quantify road transportation-related energy reduction because of mitigation policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 and to measure energy loss resulting from congestion.

Severino, Joseph↗
DOE OSTI2024

User-Centric Communication With Aerial Network for 6G: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Meeting the diverse needs of user verticals requires innovative cellular architectures that can offer additional degrees of freedom to provide on-demand services. The terrestrial user-centric radio access network (UC-RAN) stands out as an excellent choice for this purpose. However, a drawback of UC-RAN is its tendency to prioritize high-priority verticals, often resulting in a subpar quality of experience for low-priority verticals. This issue is particularly exacerbated in hotspot areas. Here, to address this problem, we introduce an aerial network integrated with terrestrial UC-RAN to provide coverage to users which are not served by the terrestrial network. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of key configuration and optimization parameters (COPs), such as location, transmit power, altitude, and beamwidth of aerial base stations (ABSs) on system key performance indicators (KPIs), such as coverage, latency satisfaction, average spectral efficiency, and energy efficiency. We formulate a robust multiobjective function to maximize these KPIs without biasing toward any specific KPI(s). Finally, we propose a deep reinforcement learning optimization framework based on the state-of-the-art soft actor-critic algorithm to control ABS COPs and optimize system KPIs. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed optimization framework can converge to near-optimal solutions derived from the pseudo brute force in a few thousand epochs.

6G↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Nugget Size of Resistance Spot Welds Using Infrared Thermal Videos With Image Segmentation and Convolutional Neural Network

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is a widely adopted joining technique in automotive industry. Recent advancement in sensing technology makes it possible to collect thermal videos of the weld nugget during RSW using an infrared (IR) camera. The effective and timely analysis of such thermal videos has the potential of enabling in situ nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld nugget by predicting nugget thickness and diameter. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated to be effective in analyzing imaging data in many applications. However, the thermal videos in RSW present unique data-level challenges that compromise the effectiveness of most pre-trained DL models. We propose a novel image segmentation method for handling the RSW thermal videos to improve the prediction performance of DL models in RSW. The proposed method transforms raw thermal videos into spatial-temporal instances in four steps: video-wise normalization, removal of uninformative images, watershed segmentation, and spatial-temporal instance construction. The extracted spatial-temporal instances serve as the input data for training a DL-based NDE model. The proposed method is able to extract high-quality data with spatial-temporal correlations in the thermal videos, while being robust to the impact of unknown surface emissivity. Overall, our case studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better prediction of nugget thickness and diameter than predicting without the transformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of Novel Neuromorphic Methodologies for Materials Applications

Many of today's most interesting questions involve understanding and interpreting complex relationships within graph-based structures. For instance, in materials science, predicting material properties often relies on analyzing the intricate network of atomic interactions. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a popular approach for these tasks; however, they suffer from limitations such as inefficient hardware utilization and over-smoothing. Recent advancements in neuromorphic computing offer promising solutions to these challenges. In this work, we evaluate two such neuromorphic strategies known as reservoir computing and hyperdimensional computing. We compare the performance of both approaches for bandgap classification and regression using a subset of the Materials Project dataset. Our results indicate recent advances in hyperdimensional computing can be applied effectively to better represent molecular graphs.

Gobin, Derek [George Mason University, Virginia]↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Distributed Power Apportioning with Net Load Management Engine in Microgrids Using Power Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation

This article presents the performance evaluation of ratio consensus-based distributed power apportioning engine along with centralized net load management (NLM) engine that ensures viable and stable operation of an islanded microgrid. Managing net load variability in a microgrid with high penetrations of uncertain renewable generation and ever-changing load demands is a crucial need in order to ensure viable and stable operation of the microgrid. Centralized “dispatch-rule”-based and/or multi-agent-based distributed control of distributed energy resources (DERs) in microgrid are well accepted for microgrid by adapting ANSI/ISA-95-based hierarchical control architecture. In the application where microgrid network has large geographical span with multiple DERs dispersed in the network, high penetration of uncertain renewable energy resources, and ever-changing load demands, a judicious selection of techniques/solutions for managing net-load resources for maintaining viability and stability is required. With this motivation, this article proposes a novel solution to mitigate the challenges by incorporating a mixed centralized NLM engine and distributed power apportioning control of DERs and loads. A power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) -based experiment is conducted with the centralized NLM engine and the distributed power apportioning engine along with two commercial inverters. The experimental results validates the efficacy of the proposed method in ensuring viability and stability of a microgrid.

hardware-in-the-loop simulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adhesively Bonded Copper and Polyimide for Flexible Printed Circuit Boards: A Data-Driven Degradation Study Under Accelerated Aging

The long-term durability of polyimide laminated adhesive based flexible printed circuit boards (PCBs) is critical to the microelectronics industry. The interface of the adhesive layer binding the polyimide and copper layers is particularly vulnerable since decreased bonding strength can lead to deadhesion, performance loss, and premature device failure. Here, in this study, adhesive-bonded polyimide and copper samples are subjected to 1000 h of damp heat exposure (85 °C/85%RH) to evaluate the impact of moisture and copper inclusion on the adhesive bonding performance. Significant copper diffusion through the adhesive layer is observed, which, combined with moisture uptake, is found to substantially weaken interfacial adhesion in copper-containing samples, thereby reducing device lifetime. Observed surface and bulk material changes are correlated to adhesion strength using the network structural equation modeling (netSEM) approach, resulting in a robust predictive model of performance degradation based on measurable materials properties.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Network traffic control for multi-homed end-hosts via SDN

Software-defined networking (SDN) is an emerging technology of efficiently controlling and managing computer networks, such as in data centres, wide-area networks, as well as in ubiquitous communication. In this study, the authors explore the idea of embedding the SDN components, represented by SDN controller and virtual switch, in end-hosts to improve network performance. In particular, the authors consider load balancing across multiple network interfaces on end-hosts with different link capacity scenarios. The authors have explored and implemented different SDN-based load-balancing approaches based on OpenFlow software switches, and have demonstrated the feasibility and the potential of this approach. The proposed system has been evaluated with MultiPath transmission control protocol (MPTCP). Furthermore, the proposed results demonstrated the potential of applying the SDN concepts on multi-homed devices resulting in an increase in achieved throughput of 55% compared to the legacy single network approach and 10% compared to the MPTCP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2021

SD-WAN Evaluation Criteria for a Defense Information Systems Network Expeditionary Customer Edge

The Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) has identified a service provision gap midway between the capacity and capability of a Defense Information Systems Network (DISN) transport Edge Points of Presence (POP) and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Enterprise Classified Travel Kit (DECTK). Some deployed force 100-user Tactical Operations Centers are in field locations far removed from the DISN transport core, in challenging environmental conditions with limitations on space, weight, power, and cooling for network equipment. As part of a multi-phase project, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) will gather and analyze requirements, design, develop, prototype, and test a miniaturized and ruggedized DISN Customer Edge POP scaled to support approximately 100 users in a field Tactical Operations Center. An Expeditionary Customer Edge (ECE) will be more suitable for field deployment than a DISN transport Edge POP, using ruggedized hardware and network function virtualization (NFV) to operate in challenging field environmental conditions, plus reduce weight, power, and cooling requirements. A key enabling technology for ECE is Software Defined Wide Area Networking (SD-WAN). This document provides: • A brief overview of SD-WAN use cases and how they apply to ECE • How SD-WAN technology compares to existing networks like DISN that use Optical Transport Networking (OTN) and Multiprotocol Label Switching (MPLS) • SD-WAN functional requirements relevant to ECE • A description of an ECE Virtual Prototype, including simulated wide area network paths and a DISN-representative implementation of MPLS, in Cisco Modeling Labs • Detailed network flow walkthroughs • Evaluation criteria based on ECE-relevant SD-WAN functional requirements Finally, an appendix provides an informal evaluation of Speedify—a commercial retail Virtual Private Network service—against the ECE SD-WAN evaluation criteria.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Undergraduate Women in STEM Internship Program

In collaboration with the Universities Research Association, Inc. (URA), establishment of the Undergraduate Women in STEM Internship pilot program assists Fermi Research Alliance, LLC (FRA) with honoring its commitment to increasing gender, racial and ethnic workforce diversity. This focused initiative is intended to invite, support and yield a qualified pipeline of alumnae underrepresented in FRA’s science and technology management and technical staff positions. Interns in this program spend 10-12 weeks at Fermilab working under the direct leadership, guidance and supervision of scientists, engineers, computing professionals, technicians and staff across all directorates performing hands-on research. In addition, the intern cohort meets with mentors and advisors to grow their professional networks, to take part in engaging and inclusive intellectual discussions, to directly benefit from workplace resources, and to participate in professional development and social engagement opportunities. The design of each research project and the supervision, mentorship and evaluation is conducted by a scientific, engineering, computing professional at Fermilab.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Surrogates of a Fuel Matrix Degradation Process Model for Performance Assessment of a Nuclear Waste Repository

Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Further, using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO 3 2- , O 2 , Fe 2+ , and H 2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO 2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal conductivity of two-dimensional disordered fibrous materials defined by interfiber thermal contact conductance and intrinsic conductivity of fibers

A general framework for the theoretical analysis and numerical calculations of the effective thermal conductivity of two-dimensional homogeneous and isotropic disordered fibrous materials is developed in this work based on the model of random contacts between soft-core spherocylinders. The analysis accounts for the interfiber contact conductance and intrinsic conductivity of fibers and is performed in a wide space of governing parameters that includes the fiber aspect ratio, Biot number calculated for a single thermal contact between fibers, and material density ranging from values corresponding to the percolation threshold up to those characteristic of dense fiber networks. For dense networks, exact theoretical equations for the thermal conductivity of materials composed of spherocylinders with an arbitrary aspect ratio and Biot number are derived. The effect of the intrinsic conductivity of fibers on the thermal transport in fibrous materials is found to depend on the density of contacts and can be significant in sufficiently dense fiber networks even if the Biot number for a single thermal contact is small. Semiempirical corrections to the theoretical equations are derived for small and moderate fiber densities. The power law exponent describing the approximate dependence of the conductivity on the density parameter is found to vary from values close to 1 up to values exceeding 2 when evaluated within different finite ranges of the density parameter. This finding explains the variability of scaling laws for thermal conductivity of fibrous materials suggested in the literature based on numerical simulations performed in different regions of the space of material parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States

Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗