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At least 523 records · Page 29
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of multi-messenger astrophysical data: Joint and coherent inference of gravitational waves and kilonovae

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers can provide information on the neutron star’s equation of state (EOS) above the nuclear saturation density by directly constraining the mass-radius diagram. We present a Bayesian framework for joint and coherent analyses of multi-messenger binary neutron star signals. As a first application, we analyze the gravitational-wave GW170817 and the kilonova (kN) AT2017gfo data. These results are then combined with the most recent X-ray pulsar analyses of PSR J0030+0451 and PSR J0740+6620 to obtain new EOS constraints.We extend the bajes infrastructure with a joint likelihood for multiple datasets, support for various semi-analytical kN models, and numerical-relativity (NR)-informed relations for the mass ejecta, as well as a technique to include and marginalize over modeling uncertainties. The analysis of GW170817 used the TEOBResumS effective-one-body waveform template to model the gravitational-wave signal. The analysis of AT2017gfo used a baseline multicomponent spherically symmetric model for the kN light curves. Various constraints on the mass-radius diagram and neutron star properties were then obtained by resampling over a set of ten million parameterized EOSs, which was built under minimal assumptions (general relativity and causality).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

TDCOSMO 2025: Cosmological constraints from strong lensing time delays

We present cosmological constraints from eight strongly lensed quasars (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2025 sample). Building on previous work, our analysis incorporated new deflector stellar velocity dispersions measured from spectra obtained with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Keck Telescopes, and the Very Large Telescope (VLT), utilizing improved methods. We used integrated JWST stellar kinematics for five lenses, VLT-MUSE for 2, and resolved kinematics from Keck and JWST for RX J1131−1231. We also considered two samples of non-time-delay lenses: 11 from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample with Keck-KCWI resolved kinematics; and four from the Strong Lenses in the Legacy Survey (SL2S) sample. We improved our analysis of line-of-sight effects, the surface brightness profile of the lens galaxies, and orbital anisotropy, and corrected for projection effects in the dynamics. Our uncertainties are maximally conservative by accounting for the mass-sheet degeneracy in the deflectors’ mass density profiles. The analysis was blinded to prevent experimenter bias. Our primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, in combination with Ωm constraints from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae (SN) dataset. In the flat Λ cold dark matter (CDM), we find H0 = 71.6+3.9−3.3 km s−1 Mpc−1. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 sample, improving the precision on H0 in flat ΛCDM to 4.6%. Using the Dark Energy Survey SN Year-5 dataset (DES-SN5YR) or DESI-DR2 baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihoods instead of Pantheon+ yields very similar results. We also present constraints in the open ΛCDM, wCDM, w0waCDM, and wϕCDM cosmologies. The TDCOSMO H0 inference is robust and consistent across all presented cosmological models, and our cosmological constraints in them agree with those from the BAO and SN.Key words: cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations / dark energy / distance scale⋆⋆ Brinson Fellow.⋆⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein Fellow.

Birrer, Simon [SUNY, Stony Brook] (ORCID:000000033↗
DOE OSTI2026

The DESI DR1 peculiar velocity survey: Growth rate measurements from the galaxy power spectrum

The large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution encapsulate a wealth of cosmological information. A powerful means of unlocking this knowledge lies in measuring the auto-power spectrum and/or the cross-power spectrum of the galaxy density and momentum fields, followed by the estimation of cosmological parameters based on these spectrum measurements. In this study, we generalize the cross-power spectrum model to accommodate scenarios in which the density and momentum fields are derived from distinct galaxy surveys. The growth rate of the large-scale structures of the Universe, commonly represented as fσ 8 , was extracted by jointly fitting the monopole and quadrupole moments of the auto-density power spectrum, the monopole of the auto-momentum power spectrum, and the dipole of the cross-power spectrum. Our estimators, theoretical models, and parameter-fitting framework were tested using mocks, confirming their robustness and accuracy in retrieving the fiducial growth rate from simulation. These techniques were then applied to analyse the power spectrum of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey and Peculiar Velocity Survey. The fit result of the growth rate is fσ8 = 0.440$^{+0.080}_{−0.096}$ at effective redshift zeff = 0.07. By synthesizing the fitting outcomes from correlation functions, maximum likelihood estimation, and the power spectrum, a consensus value is yielded of fσ 8 (z eff = 0.07) = 0.450$^{+0.055}_{−0.055}$, and correspondingly we obtain γ = 0.580$^{+0.110}_{−0.110}$, Ω m = 0.301$^{+0.011}_{−0.011}$, and σ 8 = 0.834$^{+0.032}_{−0.032}$. The measured fσ8 and γ are consistent with the prediction of the Λ cold dark matter model and general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid-based minimization at scale: Feldman-Cousins corrections for light sterile neutrino search

High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments generally employ sophisticated statistical methods to present results in searches of new physics. In the problem of searching for sterile neutrinos, likelihood ratio tests are applied to short-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments to construct confidence intervals for the parameters of interest. The test statistics of the form Δχ2 is often used to form the confidence intervals, however, this approach can lead to statistical inaccuracies due to the small signal rate in the region-of-interest. In this paper, we present a computational model for the computationally expensive Feldman-Cousins corrections to construct a statistically accurate confidence interval for neutrino oscillation analysis. The program performs a grid-based minimization over oscillation parameters and is written in C++. Our algorithms make use of vectorization through Eigen3, yielding a single-core speed-up of 350 compared to the original implementation, and achieve MPI data parallelism by employing DIY. We demonstrate the strong scaling of the application at High-Performance Computing (HPC) sites. We utilize HDF5 along with HighFive to write the results of the calculation to file.

Wospakrik, Marianette↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Work from Home Patterns across COVID-19 Waves: Implications for Future Transportation

The unprecedented rise in work from home (WFH) during COVID-19 poses challenges for the transportation engineers and planners with the travel demand forecasting. If WFH persists post-pandemic, it could influence traffic patterns, reducing peak-hour congestion. However, the evolution of WFH decisions across pandemic phases and varying socio-economic contexts remains unclear. This study examines factors influencing WFH choices using data from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. Findings reveal a decline in WFH participation from 60% during the first wave to 38% by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Geographically Weighted Regression model highlights the influence of socio-economic, household, and COVID-19-related variables, with notable spatial variability. Results show that younger individuals, females, and households with children are consistently more likely to WFH, while non-white and higher income individuals have an increasing likelihood for WFH as the pandemic progresses. These insights inform future transportation planning, emphasizing equity and decentralization strategies for post-pandemic commuting.

Patwary, Latif [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189174928)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shared Use Travel Behavior for Improving Rural Mobility: Insights from Greene County, Pennsylvania

Rural communities are considered disadvantaged communities as they suffer from a lack of transport options. Thus, rural regionsprovide less accessibility for commuters to reach their destination as opposed to urban regions. However, the issues of transport disadvantageand shared use mobility in rural areas within the United States (US) have not been well investigated. Furthermore, transport disadvantagediffers between communities and regions across the globe; thus, there is a need to study the behavioral choices of rural commuters within theUS context. This study contributes by analyzing the behavioral choices of rural communities within the US through a case study site ofWaynesburg, Pennsylvania, for adopting a shared use shuttle service. K-means clusters showed that trips from the survey data were a goodrepresentation of real trips from Ecolane. Furthermore, random parameter-based binary logit models were calibrated using data collected fromstudents, faculty, and residents in Waynesburg, Greene County, to study the behavioral choices of commuters. The findings for the faculty andstudents group revealed that prior experience with shared services increases the likelihood of using a shared shuttle. An important personalcharacteristic of inconvenience showed a higher propensity toward using existing modes as opposed to a shared shuttle. Such commutersvalue personal vehicles as more convenient as they have childcare responsibilities and varying schedules for work that require them to moveback and forth across locations, thus making a shared shuttle less attractive for them. The socioeconomic factors of age and gender show ahigher propensity for using shared shuttles. Furthermore, the findings from this study could be helpful for agencies in improving rural mobility andconsidering such shared mobility services for rural communities

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observation of weakly damped modes using high resolution measurement of turbulence in a dipole confined plasma

When plasma is confined by a levitated superconducting current ring, the turbulent radial particle flux changes the direction depending upon the gradient of the particle number within tubes of equal magnetic flux [Garnier et al., Phys. Plasmas 24, 012506 (2017)]. When the density profile is highly peaked, the particle flux is outward. When the density profile is less peaked, turbulence drives an inward “particle pinch.” This change in the direction of particle flux coincides with a reversal of the mean toroidal propagation direction of turbulent fluctuations. Previously, only the mean wavenumber of the fluctuations was reported. The mean wavenumber was computed from the ensemble correlation between two probes. Here, the full frequency-wavenumber power spectrum of the saturated turbulence is calculated by applying Capon’s “maximum likelihood method” to floating potential measurements from an array of probes. The power spectrum shows that the highest intensity modes are due to unstable entropy modes, and the less intense modes coincide with weakly damped convective cells, which rotate toroidally in the direction opposite to the unstable modes. Because the weakly damped modes make up a significant fraction of the fluctuating power, these measurements imply that saturated turbulence in a dipole-confined plasma involves the excitation of weakly damped rotating convective cells.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-principles study of hydrogen behavior near W/WC interfaces

Hydrogen (H) solution, migration, and binding to vacancies near the tungsten/tungsten carbide (W/WC) interfaces based on hcp WC or bcc W (W/WCb and Wb/WC) have been studied by first-principles simulations to provide insights into the effect of C on H behavior in W exposed to C deposition in fusion reactors. The H behavior near the W/WC interfaces is related to the tensile or compressive strain due to the lattice match and interfacial effects. Near the W/WCb interface, the H solution energy in hcp WC increases approaching the interface, while it decreases from the W side to the interface. The configuration change of the W slab significantly decreases the H solution energy but has only a modest effect on the H migration energy barrier in comparison with the values in bcc W. The interface enhances the H binding to vacancies in WC layers. Both the interface and configuration adjustment of the W slab reduce the H binding to vacancies on the W side of the interface. Near the Wb/WC interface, H solution energies in both WC and W slabs weakly decrease approaching the interface. The configuration change of the WC slab significantly increases the H solution energy and binding energy to vacancies but decreases the H migration energy barrier in comparison with the values in hcp WC. The H energetics near the W/WC interfaces indicate the likelihood of H localization and diffusion in the W side of the interface, rather than diffusing through the interface into WC layers.

Yang, L. (ORCID:0000000322166071)↗
DOE OSTI2020

GaAs growth rates of 528 μm/h using dynamic-hydride vapor phase epitaxy with a nitrogen carrier gas

Herein we demonstrate record GaAs growth rates approaching 530 μm/h using nitrogen carrier gas and 400 μm/h using hydrogen carrier gas in a dynamic-hydride vapor phase epitaxy reactor. We measured root mean square surface roughness below 1 nm using a 1 μm × 1 μm atomic force microscopy scan for GaAs growth rates up to 483 μm/h using a nitrogen carrier gas and 400 μm/h using a hydrogen carrier gas. We performed computational fluid dynamics modeling to study the effect of the carrier gas choice on the thermal profile within the reactor and how that influences the degree of AsH 3 decomposition. The modeling suggests that the lower thermal conductivity of the nitrogen carrier gas minimizes the amount of AsH 3 that thermally decomposes before reaching the wafer surface and the heavier atomic mass decreases the likelihood that AsH 3 will reach the heated reactor walls, leading to a growth rate enhancement relative to the hydrogen carrier case in a hydride-enhanced growth regime.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solvent reaction coordinate for an S N 2 reaction

We study the prototypical S N 2 reaction Cl – + CH 3 Cl → CH 3 Cl + Cl – in water using QM/MM computer simulations with transition path sampling and inertial likelihood maximization. We have identified a new solvent coordinate that improves upon the original atom-exchange coordinate used in the classic analysis by Chandrasekhar, Smith, and Jorgensen. The new solvent coordinate quantifies instantaneous solvent induced polarization relative to equilibrium charge density at each point along the reaction pathway. In this paper, we will present free energy surfaces, transmission coefficients, and committor tests associated with this collective coordinate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multivariate discrimination in quantum target detection

In this work, we describe a simple multivariate technique of likelihood ratios for improved discrimination of signal and background in multi-dimensional quantum target detection. Furthermore, the technique combines two independent variables, time difference and summed energy, of a photon pair from the spontaneous parametric down-conversion source into an optimal discriminant. The discriminant performance was studied in experimental data and in Monte-Carlo modelling with clear improvement shown compared to previous techniques. As novel detectors become available, we expect this type of multivariate analysis to become increasingly important in multi-dimensional quantum optics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary reinforcement learning of dynamical large deviations

In this work, we show how to bound and calculate the likelihood of dynamical large deviations using evolutionary reinforcement learning. An agent, a stochastic model, propagates a continuous-time Monte Carlo trajectory and receives a reward conditioned upon the values of certain path-extensive quantities. Evolution produces progressively fitter agents, potentially allowing the calculation of a piece of a large-deviation rate function for a particular model and path-extensive quantity. For models with small state spaces, the evolutionary process acts directly on rates, and for models with large state spaces, the process acts on the weights of a neural network that parameterizes the model's rates. This approach shows how path-extensive physics problems can be considered within a framework widely used in machine learning.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Single-shot x-ray phase-contrast and dark-field imaging based on coded binary phase mask

We introduce a coded-mask-based multi-contrast imaging method for high-resolution phase-contrast and dark-field imaging. The method uses a binary phase mask designed to provide an ultra-high-contrast pattern and reference-free single-shot measurement and an algorithm based on maximum-likelihood optimization and automatic differentiation to perform simultaneous reconstruction of absorption, phase, and dark-field object images. Further, we demonstrate that the method has great potential for real-time quantitative phase imaging and wavefront sensing when combined with deep learning.

Qiao, Zhi (ORCID:0000000286285320)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dispersive shell pellet injection modeling and validation for DIII-D disruption mitigation

Dispersive shell pellet injection for disruption mitigation on the DIII-D tokamak is modeled with the 3D MHD code NIMROD. The simulations attempt to reproduce as closely as possible a pellet velocity scan that was performed on the DIII-D tokamak [Hollmann, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 65001 (2019)]. This scan involved injecting a hollow diamond shell filled with boron dust that is released in the core of the plasma. Trends that are reproduced in the simulation include improved mitigation, reduced plasma current spike amplitude, and increased likelihood of hot-tail runaway electron production with increased pellet speed. The simulations provide additional physics insight into these findings. Limitations of the present model and requirements for a predictive model are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-steady testing approach for high-power Hall thrusters

Hall effect thrusters operating at power levels in excess of several hundreds of kilowatts have been identified as enabling technologies for applications such as lunar tugs, large satellite orbital transfer vehicles, and solar system exploration. These large thrusters introduce significant testing challenges due to the propellant flow rate exceeding the pumping speed available in most laboratories. Even with proposed upgrades in mind, the likelihood that multiple vacuum facilities will exist in the near future to allow long duration testing of high-power Hall thrusters operating at power levels in excess of 100 kW remains extremely low. In this article, we numerically explore the feasibility of testing Hall thrusters in a quasi-steady mode defined by pulsing the mass flow rate between a nominal and a low value. Here, our simulations indicate that sub-second durations available before the chamber reaches critical pressure are sufficiently long to achieve the steady-state current and flow field distributions, allowing us to characterize thruster performance and the near plume region.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Progress toward fusion energy breakeven and gain as measured against the Lawson criterion

The Lawson criterion is a key concept in the pursuit of fusion energy, relating the fuel density n, pulse duration τ or energy confinement time τE, and fuel temperature T to the energy gain Q of a fusion plasma. The purpose of this paper is to explain and review the Lawson criterion and to provide a compilation of achieved parameters for a broad range of historical and contemporary fusion experiments. Although this paper focuses on the Lawson criterion, it is only one of many equally important factors in assessing the progress and ultimate likelihood of any fusion concept becoming a commercially viable fusion-energy system. Only experimentally measured or inferred values of n, τ or τE, and T that have been published in the peer-reviewed literature are included in this paper, unless noted otherwise. For extracting these parameters, we discuss methodologies that are necessarily specific to different fusion approaches (including magnetic, inertial, and magneto-inertial fusion). This paper is intended to serve as a reference for fusion researchers and a tutorial for all others interested in fusion energy.

Wurzel, Samuel E. (ORCID:0000000260548161)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring characteristic differences between high- and low-performing discharges on the MegaJOuLe Neutron Imaging Radiography (MJOLNIR) DPF

A dense plasma focus (DPF) is a compact coaxial plasma gun, which completes its discharge as a Z-pinch, producing short (<100 ns) pulses of ions, x rays, and/or neutrons. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory recently constructed and began operating a new device, the MJOLNIR (MegaJOuLe Neutron Imaging Radiography) DPF, which is designed for single-pulse flash neutron radiography. This device has achieved neutron yields of up to 4.1×10 11 neutrons/pulse at 3.3 MA peak current, and higher-current commissioning is under way. Like most DPFs, MJOLNIR exhibits variable yields in some configurations. Here, we present evidence of the role of parasitic current paths within the gun in stochastically influencing the yield. First through “conditioning shots,” where new hardware has been introduced, we show that increased run-down and run-in speeds correlate with higher yields. These observations are consistent with current being delivered to the electrodes but not to the main plasma sheath, degrading the implosion-driving force. Once nominal conditions are established, we correlate low-performing discharges with smaller current dip and associated voltage spike for a fixed machine configuration. A snow-plow model is able to recreate small-magnitude current dips through the introduction of a parasitic current path, and particle-in-cell simulations establish how parasitic current paths lower the ion beam energy available to produce neutrons. Finally, we observe an increased likelihood of shots with low yield and smaller current dip with increasing fill pressure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗